Congratulations to him! Nice seeing our beloved Belcher make the Top 8 once again. It's about time!
So, about his sideboard, he seems like going all-in against UX decks, given his 8 slots of hate, and the absence of Diminishing Returns or Past in Flames. Do you think this should be the way to go right now? I also noticed the absence of Manamorphose and going all-in on mana production with additional 4 Pyretic Ritual and a full four Chrome Moxen. What are your thoughts on this?
Land Grant allows us to get our lone Taiga/Stomping Ground/Forest out of the library for zero mana when we think we can kill our opponent, at the simple cost of showing them our hand. Even extra copies work on the turn we go off, since they all add to the storm count with no investment. Should we be going for a Belcher kill rather than storming, then it guarantees the opponent is toast as our library will have zero lands in it after the Land Grant and we will dome them for 40+ damage.
Welcome to the format. Legacy is great and should you decide to play it, Belcher is certainly a fun approach.
As Jial pointed out, it allows us to get our Land(s) out for free. This is basically what allows the deck to function as it does. We don't want to play any Lands, but Chrome Mox and Lotus Petal aren't fabulous mana-sources, and more importantly Lotus Petal isn't recurring. Though we don't want to play Lands, they are necessary. Land Grant lowers the number of Lands we need to play, because Land Grant can effectively function as Taiga 2-5.
Okay, so I now understand sorta' one aspect of it, but isn't just a dead draw if your doing the Charbelcher combo? Or does Charbelcher even need to hit a land to deal the damage? Thank you for helping me with this, I appreciate it
This is a good question. The answer to your first question is "not really". Land Grant, before you activate Belcher is fine. It just guarantees your Belcher activation does lethal damage. A Land Grant during your Storm combo may not be perfect. It's certainly not as good as a Desperate Ritual, but at worst it's 2 Goblins.
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
lIlIllIlll, What are your thoughts in removing Manamorphose in the deck for the full set of Pyretic Ritual and Chrome Mox? The list your friend used to Top 8 just did, and I want to know the incentives of doing so.
lIlIllIlll, What are your thoughts in removing Manamorphose in the deck for the full set of Pyretic Ritual and Chrome Mox? The list your friend used to Top 8 just did, and I want to know the incentives of doing so.
I'm going to refrain from directly answering and will defer to Trall's math for now.
Got slightly better overall hand. You’ll mulligan as much (because the number of business spells are the same, this will remain the same percentage) but will be less concerned by fizzling while going off, simply because no Manamorphose = less randomness on draw.
Because of 4 Chrome Mox, you’ll be able to land a turn 1 Belcher, followed by an activation turn 2 or later more often (at the cost of activating turn 1, that’s not what really want)
Because no Manamorphose, the average storm count will decrease = a little less gob’s. We also have a lower variance which mean the number of gob’s will be in [9.50 ; 15.50] 68% of time contrary to the [10 ; 17] in the 3 Chrome Mox, 3 EtW, 4 BW list we see most often.
Some hand will however not be as good as we would like. Not being able to fix mana for Tinder Wall or Infernal Tutor in SB = not fun... I’m not sure that the cost of the decrease of randomness and the average storm count is worth the .4% of fizzling hand...
Conclusion: No advantage gained while cutting Manamorphose
(NB: This is mostly a direct quote from Trall's paper, but I changed some words to make more sense in context)
The point I would like to emphasize is the fact that one loses color fixing for Tinder Wall, and important Sideboard cards like Xantid Swarm or Carpet of Flowers, when cutting Manamorphose. This is a strong reason to keep Manamorphose in: not for corner-cases like making BR for Infernal Tutor to grab a Belcher; for getting initial-mana post-board and even in slower first games.
I'm going to start working on my own Belcher simulation. Not because I disagree with Trall (quite the opposite actually. I respect him a lot and was thrilled when he commented on the thread.), or think his math is wrong, but because there are certain things he didn't extensively test on--like the Manamorphose thing. I would like to finally settle the argument.
Edit #42: Remind me to never reply on mobile. Okay honestly. Never again on mobile.
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
Seems fair. I'd rather have less bad hands (more fixing) than the increased connsistency of having ramp. Also, having two Chrome Moxen is a situation I try to tend away from ever since having LEDs.
Nice list there! I wonder why the split of 2 Empty the Warrens - 2 Pyretic Ritual... I'm a bit not used to it since I really have a hard time finding business (I'm just unlucky most of the time ).
Honestly, I did not read it before, but now I have. And it is a very interesting read. Really informative. I think it's just my luck in playing the deck that I tend to go with 11 business, but I'll definitely try your suggestions. Thanks!
thanks Trall (and everyone else) on the work! buying into legacy with this as my second deck (first is burn). Got 2 LEDs hoping to pick up my last two by year's end. This primer is just what is needed
So I'm trying to get into Legacy by starting with this deck. Mostly because I already had 4 LEDs. I'm going with Trall's 2 Mox 3 Pyretic list and am building the sideboard. Some questions:
1) When do you Wish for Diminishing Returns? Let's say you have RRRRUU, 6 storm count, and a Burning Wish in your hand. Do you Wish for Empty to make 16 Goblins and a 2-turn clock, or Diminishing Returns to essentially gamble for the first-turn kill via Belcher or Tendrils?
2) Has anyone tried 1 Rite of Flame in the sideboard as a Wish target? I'm not sure how much worse -1 Rite +1 Pyretic would make the main deck, but already goldfishing I've gotten 2 hands where a Rite of Flame in the sideboard allows you to get +2 storm count. Once I had 5 mana, Burning Wish, and Empty, and once I had 7 mana and 2 Wishes. (Unfortunately Rite of Flame is the only sorcery ritual.)
Thanks for the work, Lili, Trall, and others who have contributed. You definitely saved me and others a lot of time trying to find the optimal list.
here's the list that was part of the 15th place team at the Team Open today. Looks like your stock list from the primer guide except he went +1 Chrome Mox, +1 Empty the Warrens (main), -1 Pyretic Ritual and -1 Manamorphose. Plus the sideboard was different to, most notably the playset of Pyroblast
Hello everyone! Yesterday I played Belcher in the Legacy Main event of MKM Series Milan 2017, piloting it to a 15th place finish with a result of 6-2.
[...]
The main point here is that I played 10 instead of 11 business spells, as per Trall's paper. I had no problems with this approach and I do not think I mulliganed more than is normal with this kind of deck.
The other noteworthy choices is the split of 2 Chrome Mox, 3 Manamorphose and 4 Pyretic Ritual. The background is that I really hate Chrome Mox; while I can appreciate that it is a permanent source of mana, it just feels incredibly clunky most of time I have it in hand. It also does not make mana by itself if drawn in the late game (everything after turn 2), since we are likely to have no colored cards in hand by that point! I was very happy with having only 2 of them, making room for the 4th Pyretic and the 2-3rd manamorphose.
Manamorphose was really good all day and I have no idea why people are not liking it. The key insight is that you can use it reliably to find mana, but not to find buisness, because of the respective ratios we play. Just don't keep hands what have no buisness, no matter how many cantrips you have, and you are good to go! I feel like people bashing on Manamoprhose are maybe prone to talking themselves into bad keeps with it, which in turn colors their perception of the card.
I was just happy about the free storm count and it even fixed my mana one time for a Burning Wish.
I'll admit that I have not real insight in regards to the 4th Pyretic, other than I had the mana I needed most of the time. It might be correct to just play the 4th Manamorphose instead.
Overall I was very happy with the list, it was a blast to play!
Very nice! How do you feel the lack of Chrome Mox affected your post-board games? The game I would specifically be interested in is the Merfolk game. During game 3, were you ever like "man I really wish I had another Land or another Chrome Mox?" I assume these weren't 4-turn games and were more like-10 turn games. Would having extra initial mana have helped in your opnion?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
Hey everyone! The topic has been kind of dead for awhile so I figured I should spark some discussion. Since the success of decks playing Chalice of the Void, Thorn of Amethyst, and Pithing Needle is approaching an all-time high, at what point do we start seriously considering replacing our Sideboarded 4x Xantid Swarms with 4x Ingot Chewers?
Based off of recently successful decks, Emma Handy's deck played:
I don't want to go down the slippery slope of metagame discussion. This deck, primarily, should be concerned with going as fast as possible. But when game 3 comes around and 14 of our opponents' cards directly stop what we want to do, it doesn't hurt to consider our best course of action.
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
So this question has been plaguing me for a while now:
What could we play in the wishboard to make 5 mana and a Burning Wish something other than passing the turn in hopes of getting another mana source off the top next turn?
So this question has been plaguing me for a while now:
What could we play in the wishboard to make 5 mana and a Burning Wish something other than passing the turn in hopes of getting another mana source off the top next turn?
But none of those actually allow you do really do anything unless you draw a Lotus Petal effect. You're pretty much limited to Fiery Gambit. There's nothing you can really do from the position of "I have the potential for 5 mana and a Burning Wish". Just wait till you have 1 more mana and get an Empty the warrens for probably 4 to 8 (depending on how exactly you have 5 mana).
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
As I'm sure everyone reading this knows: today, 2 July 2018, Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe were banned in Legacy. The official B&R Update can be read here. As much as I would like to talk about how Wizards can publish statements like this.
When the most popular deck in an environment is also among the most winning decks with a win rate significantly above 50% over a long period of time, we investigate.
When they've allowed this to go unchecked for over a decade. Hilarious really. Their blue-bias is really obvious, saying "We've seen a reduction in diversity of blue-based non-combo decks [...] also [...] a reduction in diversity in the environment. [...] For these reasons, Deathrite Shaman is banned in Legacy."
I guess they're honest at least. I wish if they were really worried about their precious midrange blue decks they could have tried banning Deathrite and then waiting to see how the format looked after that. I assume Jund/Czech attrition decks are less interested in Probe when they don't have Deathrite simply due to the nature of cycling through your deck in an almost Xerox-esque way. With Deathrite gone those decks lose the ability to eat their already-cast Probes for value. These midrange GB decks aren't really interested in running Probe just for Cabal Therapy because 2-for-1'ing themselves isn't advantageous for an attrition deck the same way it might be for a combo deck like TES. I don't really think Probe needed to be banned, yet anyway.
More to the point. Gitaxian Probe got the axe. It is what it is, and my complaining won't do anything to change it. Realistically though, I don't think it actually affects us in any meaningful way. Ultimately, for us, Street Wraith does exactly the same thing most of the time. Comparatively, we effectively lose 2 Goblins from Empty the Warrens and we lose knowledge about what our opponents are doing. I'm not saying it doesn't suck pretty hard to lose Probe. It's clearly strictly better than Street Wraith, but it is sort of a "win-more" card. Instead of having 12-20 Goblins on turn 1 or 2, we may now average (probably) 10-16 Goblins on turn 1 or 2. Does this affect our win percentage? It's too early to tell. If we're playing against a deck that can drop a turn 1 or 2 creature then, it becomes problematic for us to only be able to create 10 Goblins instead of 12 on average. It's obviously too early to make absolute statements but I imagine matchups that were completely free like Elves or Death and Taxes may require you to actually think about sequencing correcting, and actually making sure you have lethal through a couple of blockers.
Ultimately though, we're not Oops, All Spells. We didn't play Probe because we needed it, we played it because we liked it. This deck is consistent and has an engine outside of Probe. We're also not ANT or TES. We aren't really looking to win turn 3 or 4 like they are. We were never interested in playing Cabal Therapy for protection; our protection has always been speed and in-so-far as that goes, replacing Probe with Street Wraith doesn't change too much. We just have to be more careful about combat than we were before.
This isn't as bad for us as it is for the other combo decks, in my opinion.
10 damage on turn 2 and 3 is way different than 8 damage on turn 2, 3, and 4
Meta might have less storm-hate while ANT figures out what it's going to do
Are Wishless/Budget versions of Belcher completely dead?
All in all I hope Trall reruns his simulations. I still haven't gotten around to doing my own! I'm really interested in how big of an impact in Storm count -4 Gitaxian Probe/+4 Street Wraith has. I'm looking forward to what Bryant Cook has to say about it. His opinion heavily affects mine. I'll be looking for a writeup on his blog for sure, and I think anyone interested also should.
In the meantime, I'll be replacing Gitaxian Probe's section in the Primer with Street Wraith. Belcher has had some good appearances this year and I don't think this should affect us. If anything it might give us an edge since no one will expect it!
On a completely unrelated note, I'm selling four (4) near mint, Judge promo Gitaxian Probes. Please PM for details!
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
On a completely unrelated note, I'm selling four (4) near mint, Judge promo Gitaxian Probes. Please PM for details!
ROFL. Banned in all formats except Vintage where it is already restricted to one. Good luck on that hahaha!
Honestly speaking, I share the same sentiment. Though in some matchups like Death and Taxes we might have some problem. Since we're becoming a turn slower than before (as you pointed out, lesser Gobbos on turn 1 means more combat turns), they'll have more timetorecover.
And now, since I got my LEDs, I sold my Street Wraiths to a friend, I'm needing a set of my own!
I haven't been active for a long time but I have updated the .PDF with 2 lists that include Street Wraith in order to take the probe's ban into account : http://trall3.free.fr/belcher/Belcher.pdf
TLDR :
- Swap probe for SW, still good but ~1 gob less on average
- Keep playing 4 wraith and don't go full ritual !
By the way something interesting came through my head : what if we had 4 probe & 4 wraith instead of mox & P. Ritual... I have made 1 simulation (not written in the doc since it's not usefull anymore) but :
- ***** hand dropped to 17.6 % instead of 18.4 % --> very good
- Belcher win T1 up to 13.2 % instead of 11.8 % (T1 win) + 1.2 % (T2 win) --> faster and overall a little better
- Gob's 31.1 % instead of ~30.5 % (less fizzle hand -> more gob's hand)
- Mean gob : 13.7 +- 3.5 (= the same)
The fact that we increase overall fizzle rate & belcher T1 seems quite fun (but belcher dropped T1 and activated T2 drop to ~0 % in this case cause no mox in list) but well... This list is now illegal.
Please keep in mind that chrome mox are good for :
- Persisting mana sources (= belcher t2 or grinding game)
- Recycle business spell (= OK with 11, so so with 10, and probably almost bad with 8 (or 9) BP)
Which isn't exaclty in the objective of maximizing T1 win / action that's why I still love the 2 moxen in the recommanded list.
Feel free to discuss
By the way if you have specific list to test that aren't close to the one in the doc, I can provide results.
As always, Trall with the vital information every Belcher player needs. Thanks for keeping us posted!
Anyways, from Guilds of Ravnica, there is one card I am curious about if we can break it into our list: Experimental Frenzy.
May I request the great Trall to do some simulations. I am specifically pointing at a Wishless list, since Wishing is a bit of nonbo with Frenzy. But if we can work the math, then so be it.
I have seen Caleb Schrerer play it on a Twitch stream, and although IMO the play is inconsistent, I did observe several things:
1. Lion's Eye Diamond becomes a Black Lotus post-Frenzy
2. Chrome Mox becomes more useful
3. the deck fizzels because of spiritguides on top deck.
4. most of the time, having Frenzy on board means a win, similar to when we have Belcher on board. (Here I would like to have the math experts do their thing).
5. if we are going this route, what is the best number of business spells we need? (I still believe it should be 10).
Let me know your thoughts and simulations. Thanks everyone, and keep belching!
Concerning your question on business spells, the right number isn't conditionned to what kind of kills you play so 10 is indeed the good number.
About doing some simulation with frenzy, I should implement the logic behind the spell (which is not that easy to code tbh). Also, I may need to understand the good logic by myself in order to provide some candidate decklist to the software.
I think that
4 Belcher
4 Frenzy
2 ETW / BW should be the good split
But they should be sent with may be 3 or 4 mox this time.
Also, street wraith would be less optimal in this list cause they'll increase the number of fizzle on Frenzy.
@vetkin do you have some decklist that I could play by hand at first ?
I tested a little on my side and... I'm not a fan of Frenzy in the traditionnal RG Belcher (there is a lot of fizzle with it).
I'm still in love with burning wish version where you can still win with
2 Mana + 2 LED
3 Mana + 1 LED
6 Mana
Where with the same configuration you can die to yourself while revealing SW, ESG, SSG, Belcher early or Another Frenzy...
Here is the paintpoint : We hate Frenzy that reveal Frenzy = we hate multiple of them
All I can say is that we could try a list that swap 1 ETW with 1 Frenzy, so you won't have multiples to deal with but I find that it is a "win more" card. If we can cast it we can cast ETW and probably BW and you can fizzle even with 2 spare mana.
I bet it should be better within a list with
- Summoner's Pact to fetch cool green card (ESG can be EXILED even with Frenzy active)
- Shuffle effect / Cycle effect (to change the top card of the library) (again, cycle can be activated with Frenzy active)
- More <= 2CCM rituals (full pyretic ritual + dark & cabal ritual)
- More moxen : they are free and allow to cycle for example a wild cantor grabbed on a Summoner's Pact
But I still would love to have a list written here to play test by myself
Unfortunately I currently don't have a list ready as of the moment, but I'm taking notes on the points you raised. I'd start by swapping Frenzy with EtW straight up just to test it. Reasons are:
same cost
we hate multiples of both
both MIGHT win on turn one, with EtW on turn 1 being more potent, but Frenzy being more potent turn 2 onwards
we can still BW->EtW if we need to
I suggest you use Deck 8 as your testing platform, directly swapping Frenzy in place of EtW. Having more Street Wraith means more chances of a fizzle on top of deck, thus the Deck 8 which only has 1 SW. If we really need to lower the curve, we can insert Wild Cantor in its place.
EDIT: Take note, there is a big risk of having 4 BW with Frenzy, but IMO the opportunity to cast the top of deck to offset the mana needed to break Frenzy after casting BW can also be considered.
So, about his sideboard, he seems like going all-in against UX decks, given his 8 slots of hate, and the absence of Diminishing Returns or Past in Flames. Do you think this should be the way to go right now? I also noticed the absence of Manamorphose and going all-in on mana production with additional 4 Pyretic Ritual and a full four Chrome Moxen. What are your thoughts on this?
I see Eldrazi as a 60/40, given our speed. I am not actually afraid of a Chalice of the Void for 0 or 1. I am more afraid of Thorn of Amethyst, Sphere of Resistance and possibly Trinisphere.
And, I finally got my set of LEDs! Yeah!
Note: Technically, we are more hurt by Chalice at 0 than Chalice at 1, given that we have 11-12 cards at 0 vs 8 at 1 cmc.
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
Mogis, God of Slaughter
Daxos of Meletis
As Jial pointed out, it allows us to get our Land(s) out for free. This is basically what allows the deck to function as it does. We don't want to play any Lands, but Chrome Mox and Lotus Petal aren't fabulous mana-sources, and more importantly Lotus Petal isn't recurring. Though we don't want to play Lands, they are necessary. Land Grant lowers the number of Lands we need to play, because Land Grant can effectively function as Taiga 2-5.
This is a good question. The answer to your first question is "not really". Land Grant, before you activate Belcher is fine. It just guarantees your Belcher activation does lethal damage. A Land Grant during your Storm combo may not be perfect. It's certainly not as good as a Desperate Ritual, but at worst it's 2 Goblins.
To answer your second question, Belcher does not have to hit a Land to do damage. 6/8/2016 - If you reveal no land cards, Goblin Charbelcher deals damage equal to the number of cards revealed, and then you may order your library as you like.
Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
I'm going to refrain from directly answering and will defer to Trall's math for now.
(NB: This is mostly a direct quote from Trall's paper, but I changed some words to make more sense in context)
The point I would like to emphasize is the fact that one loses color fixing for Tinder Wall, and important Sideboard cards like Xantid Swarm or Carpet of Flowers, when cutting Manamorphose. This is a strong reason to keep Manamorphose in: not for corner-cases like making BR for Infernal Tutor to grab a Belcher; for getting initial-mana post-board and even in slower first games.
I'm going to start working on my own Belcher simulation. Not because I disagree with Trall (quite the opposite actually. I respect him a lot and was thrilled when he commented on the thread.), or think his math is wrong, but because there are certain things he didn't extensively test on--like the Manamorphose thing. I would like to finally settle the argument.
Edit #42:
Remind me to never reply on mobile.Okay honestly. Never again on mobile.Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
1) When do you Wish for Diminishing Returns? Let's say you have RRRRUU, 6 storm count, and a Burning Wish in your hand. Do you Wish for Empty to make 16 Goblins and a 2-turn clock, or Diminishing Returns to essentially gamble for the first-turn kill via Belcher or Tendrils?
2) Has anyone tried 1 Rite of Flame in the sideboard as a Wish target? I'm not sure how much worse -1 Rite +1 Pyretic would make the main deck, but already goldfishing I've gotten 2 hands where a Rite of Flame in the sideboard allows you to get +2 storm count. Once I had 5 mana, Burning Wish, and Empty, and once I had 7 mana and 2 Wishes. (Unfortunately Rite of Flame is the only sorcery ritual.)
Thanks for the work, Lili, Trall, and others who have contributed. You definitely saved me and others a lot of time trying to find the optimal list.
here's the list that was part of the 15th place team at the Team Open today. Looks like your stock list from the primer guide except he went +1 Chrome Mox, +1 Empty the Warrens (main), -1 Pyretic Ritual and -1 Manamorphose. Plus the sideboard was different to, most notably the playset of Pyroblast
original link: http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=111743
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Tinder Wall
1 Taiga
3 Chrome Mox
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Desperate Ritual
3 Manamorphose
2 Pyretic Ritual
4 Seething Song
4 Burning Wish
3 Empty the Warrens
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Land Grant
4 Rite of Flame
4 Pyroblast
1 Diminishing Returns
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Goblin War Strike
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Reanimate
1 Reforge the Soul
1 Tendrils of Agony
Very nice! How do you feel the lack of Chrome Mox affected your post-board games? The game I would specifically be interested in is the Merfolk game. During game 3, were you ever like "man I really wish I had another Land or another Chrome Mox?" I assume these weren't 4-turn games and were more like-10 turn games. Would having extra initial mana have helped in your opnion?
Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
Based off of recently successful decks, Emma Handy's deck played:
Hull Breach
Before that, Jonathan Ciccarelli's deck played:Shattering Spree
Trash for Treasure
Shattering Spree
Trash for Treasure
and only 2 Xantid Swarms
I don't want to go down the slippery slope of metagame discussion. This deck, primarily, should be concerned with going as fast as possible. But when game 3 comes around and 14 of our opponents' cards directly stop what we want to do, it doesn't hurt to consider our best course of action.
What do you think?
Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
What could we play in the wishboard to make 5 mana and a Burning Wish something other than passing the turn in hopes of getting another mana source off the top next turn?
Legacy:
GRB Belcher
UUB Merfolk
RRR Burn
GWU Bant Walker
RB Goblins
Well assuming you aren't constrained on the color of that mana:
Cruel Bargain
Act on Impulse
Ideas Unbound
But none of those actually allow you do really do anything unless you draw a Lotus Petal effect. You're pretty much limited to Fiery Gambit. There's nothing you can really do from the position of "I have the potential for 5 mana and a Burning Wish". Just wait till you have 1 more mana and get an Empty the warrens for probably 4 to 8 (depending on how exactly you have 5 mana).
Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
As I'm sure everyone reading this knows: today, 2 July 2018, Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe were banned in Legacy. The official B&R Update can be read here. As much as I would like to talk about how Wizards can publish statements like this. When they've allowed this to go unchecked for over a decade. Hilarious really. Their blue-bias is really obvious, saying "We've seen a reduction in diversity of blue-based non-combo decks [...] also [...] a reduction in diversity in the environment. [...] For these reasons, Deathrite Shaman is banned in Legacy."
I guess they're honest at least. I wish if they were really worried about their precious midrange blue decks they could have tried banning Deathrite and then waiting to see how the format looked after that. I assume Jund/Czech attrition decks are less interested in Probe when they don't have Deathrite simply due to the nature of cycling through your deck in an almost Xerox-esque way. With Deathrite gone those decks lose the ability to eat their already-cast Probes for value. These midrange GB decks aren't really interested in running Probe just for Cabal Therapy because 2-for-1'ing themselves isn't advantageous for an attrition deck the same way it might be for a combo deck like TES. I don't really think Probe needed to be banned, yet anyway.
More to the point. Gitaxian Probe got the axe. It is what it is, and my complaining won't do anything to change it. Realistically though, I don't think it actually affects us in any meaningful way. Ultimately, for us, Street Wraith does exactly the same thing most of the time. Comparatively, we effectively lose 2 Goblins from Empty the Warrens and we lose knowledge about what our opponents are doing. I'm not saying it doesn't suck pretty hard to lose Probe. It's clearly strictly better than Street Wraith, but it is sort of a "win-more" card. Instead of having 12-20 Goblins on turn 1 or 2, we may now average (probably) 10-16 Goblins on turn 1 or 2. Does this affect our win percentage? It's too early to tell. If we're playing against a deck that can drop a turn 1 or 2 creature then, it becomes problematic for us to only be able to create 10 Goblins instead of 12 on average. It's obviously too early to make absolute statements but I imagine matchups that were completely free like Elves or Death and Taxes may require you to actually think about sequencing correcting, and actually making sure you have lethal through a couple of blockers.
Ultimately though, we're not Oops, All Spells. We didn't play Probe because we needed it, we played it because we liked it. This deck is consistent and has an engine outside of Probe. We're also not ANT or TES. We aren't really looking to win turn 3 or 4 like they are. We were never interested in playing Cabal Therapy for protection; our protection has always been speed and in-so-far as that goes, replacing Probe with Street Wraith doesn't change too much. We just have to be more careful about combat than we were before.
This isn't as bad for us as it is for the other combo decks, in my opinion.
Main things I take away from this:
All in all I hope Trall reruns his simulations. I still haven't gotten around to doing my own! I'm really interested in how big of an impact in Storm count -4 Gitaxian Probe/+4 Street Wraith has. I'm looking forward to what Bryant Cook has to say about it. His opinion heavily affects mine. I'll be looking for a writeup on his blog for sure, and I think anyone interested also should.
In the meantime, I'll be replacing Gitaxian Probe's section in the Primer with Street Wraith. Belcher has had some good appearances this year and I don't think this should affect us. If anything it might give us an edge since no one will expect it!
On a completely unrelated note, I'm selling four (4) near mint, Judge promo Gitaxian Probes. Please PM for details!
Red Deck Wins R
Dredge U R B G
Dredge W U R B G / Belcher<3
Dredge W U R B G
Dredge B G - What is "competitive EDH"?
Magic is just applied math. Check out my Math Megathread and feel free to PM me questions!
I don't care if you're having fun, as long as I'm having fun. ~Bryant Cook
Meta discussion is not considered out of game. Boxing is about punching people in the face.
Punching your opponent in the face outside the ring is still considered assault. ~KamikazeArchon
ROFL. Banned in all formats except Vintage where it is already restricted to one. Good luck on that hahaha!
Honestly speaking, I share the same sentiment. Though in some matchups like Death and Taxes we might have some problem. Since we're becoming a turn slower than before (as you pointed out, lesser Gobbos on turn 1 means more combat turns), they'll have more time to recover.
And now, since I got my LEDs, I sold my Street Wraiths to a friend, I'm needing a set of my own!
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
I haven't been active for a long time but I have updated the .PDF with 2 lists that include Street Wraith in order to take the probe's ban into account : http://trall3.free.fr/belcher/Belcher.pdf
TLDR :
- Swap probe for SW, still good but ~1 gob less on average
- Keep playing 4 wraith and don't go full ritual !
By the way something interesting came through my head : what if we had 4 probe & 4 wraith instead of mox & P. Ritual... I have made 1 simulation (not written in the doc since it's not usefull anymore) but :
- ***** hand dropped to 17.6 % instead of 18.4 % --> very good
- Belcher win T1 up to 13.2 % instead of 11.8 % (T1 win) + 1.2 % (T2 win) --> faster and overall a little better
- Gob's 31.1 % instead of ~30.5 % (less fizzle hand -> more gob's hand)
- Mean gob : 13.7 +- 3.5 (= the same)
The fact that we increase overall fizzle rate & belcher T1 seems quite fun (but belcher dropped T1 and activated T2 drop to ~0 % in this case cause no mox in list) but well... This list is now illegal.
Please keep in mind that chrome mox are good for :
- Persisting mana sources (= belcher t2 or grinding game)
- Recycle business spell (= OK with 11, so so with 10, and probably almost bad with 8 (or 9) BP)
Which isn't exaclty in the objective of maximizing T1 win / action that's why I still love the 2 moxen in the recommanded list.
Feel free to discuss
By the way if you have specific list to test that aren't close to the one in the doc, I can provide results.
Anyways, from Guilds of Ravnica, there is one card I am curious about if we can break it into our list: Experimental Frenzy.
May I request the great Trall to do some simulations. I am specifically pointing at a Wishless list, since Wishing is a bit of nonbo with Frenzy. But if we can work the math, then so be it.
I have seen Caleb Schrerer play it on a Twitch stream, and although IMO the play is inconsistent, I did observe several things:
1. Lion's Eye Diamond becomes a Black Lotus post-Frenzy
2. Chrome Mox becomes more useful
3. the deck fizzels because of spirit guides on top deck.
4. most of the time, having Frenzy on board means a win, similar to when we have Belcher on board. (Here I would like to have the math experts do their thing).
5. if we are going this route, what is the best number of business spells we need? (I still believe it should be 10).
Let me know your thoughts and simulations. Thanks everyone, and keep belching!
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
Concerning your question on business spells, the right number isn't conditionned to what kind of kills you play so 10 is indeed the good number.
About doing some simulation with frenzy, I should implement the logic behind the spell (which is not that easy to code tbh). Also, I may need to understand the good logic by myself in order to provide some candidate decklist to the software.
I think that
4 Belcher
4 Frenzy
2 ETW / BW should be the good split
But they should be sent with may be 3 or 4 mox this time.
Also, street wraith would be less optimal in this list cause they'll increase the number of fizzle on Frenzy.
@vetkin do you have some decklist that I could play by hand at first ?
I tested a little on my side and... I'm not a fan of Frenzy in the traditionnal RG Belcher (there is a lot of fizzle with it).
I'm still in love with burning wish version where you can still win with
2 Mana + 2 LED
3 Mana + 1 LED
6 Mana
Where with the same configuration you can die to yourself while revealing SW, ESG, SSG, Belcher early or Another Frenzy...
Here is the paintpoint : We hate Frenzy that reveal Frenzy = we hate multiple of them
All I can say is that we could try a list that swap 1 ETW with 1 Frenzy, so you won't have multiples to deal with but I find that it is a "win more" card. If we can cast it we can cast ETW and probably BW and you can fizzle even with 2 spare mana.
I bet it should be better within a list with
- Summoner's Pact to fetch cool green card (ESG can be EXILED even with Frenzy active)
- Shuffle effect / Cycle effect (to change the top card of the library) (again, cycle can be activated with Frenzy active)
- More <= 2CCM rituals (full pyretic ritual + dark & cabal ritual)
- More moxen : they are free and allow to cycle for example a wild cantor grabbed on a Summoner's Pact
But I still would love to have a list written here to play test by myself
I suggest you use Deck 8 as your testing platform, directly swapping Frenzy in place of EtW. Having more Street Wraith means more chances of a fizzle on top of deck, thus the Deck 8 which only has 1 SW. If we really need to lower the curve, we can insert Wild Cantor in its place.
EDIT: Take note, there is a big risk of having 4 BW with Frenzy, but IMO the opportunity to cast the top of deck to offset the mana needed to break Frenzy after casting BW can also be considered.
RGForest BelcherRG
WUBRGBring to BalanceWUBRG
Commander Decks:
WUBSharuum the HegemonWUB
WUBRGScion of the Ur-DragonWUBRG
UBDralnu, Lich LordUB
UBRNekusar, the MindrazerUBR
Echo of Eons!!!
Finally a solid Wish target when you've got 2 mana, Burning Wish, and LED!