Stupid question. We typically play 4 Guides and 4 Eidolons as our only mainstay creatures. Some builds use Devil, Lavamancer, or Swiftspear, but that's it.
Of the 2 mainstays, Eidolon seems clearly the better of the two. How good would a burn spell have to be to play it over the Guides?
It would have to be better than lightning bolt, in which case it would just replace lava spike or rift bolt instead.
In my estimation from a script simulating generic outs to creatures in the context of modern, guide on the play is worth almost 4 damage and guide on the draw is worth almost 3. Assumptions would have to change for legacy, but I wouldn't expect it to be worse.
Really? That's interesting. I generally figured our bolts were higher value than Guide, and that anything at least as good as Lava Spike or Rift Bolt would replace GG.
I used a model for varying numbers of "outs to nullify" guide as a function of turn number, and it came out to better than Bolt on the play and slightly worse than bolt on the draw. This also only applies to a T1 guide.
I just realized I misspoke about on the draw. It's worth about 2 on the draw but 3.75 on the play (basically you get a free attack that they can't interact with on the play that you don't get on the draw).
Your analysis pretty closely mirrors my instincts on them, which was that GG tended to do not quite 4 on the play and not quite 2 on the draw. This meant it was weaker than Lava Spike, on average. Blocking is less common in Legacy, so that may change the math.
I also agree that Eidolon is being undervalued, as is a mid-game Lavamancer. I'm not exactly sure how those are better modeled, though.
What do we think of Rampaging Ferocidon? A 3/3 with Menace for 3 isn't exactly optimal, but we play Sulfuric Vortex and that only stops lifegain whereas this also taxes creature based strategies.
I don't think it's maindeck material personally, but rather that it might be relevant as a sideboard card versus D&T and Elves.
What do we think of Rampaging Ferocidon? A 3/3 with Menace for 3 isn't exactly optimal, but we play Sulfuric Vortex and that only stops lifegain whereas this also taxes creature based strategies.
I don't think it's maindeck material personally, but rather that it might be relevant as a sideboard card versus D&T and Elves.
I don't think it does enough to pay off, honestly.
What do we think of Rampaging Ferocidon? A 3/3 with Menace for 3 isn't exactly optimal, but we play Sulfuric Vortex and that only stops lifegain whereas this also taxes creature based strategies.
I don't think it's maindeck material personally, but rather that it might be relevant as a sideboard card versus D&T and Elves.
Being a creature instead of an enchantment is a big downside. Doing damage primarily via the red zone is another problem, as Vortex is useful in situations where there's a Bridge or something else clogging up the ground. The lower reliance on red is worth mentioning for multicolor burn decks, but it's not an issue in the Legacy build where every land makes Red. I don't see it replacing Vortex. If you can't run Vortex, this is probably the wrong thread for you.
It's not that I can't run Sulfuric Vortex, I just didn't feel like I had enough Legacy experience to say if it was better than Vortex. Besides, it's actually the more expensive option...
I think I'll probably stick with Vortex anyway, as the upsides to Rampaging Ferocidon are seeming more and more fringe. I'll keep my stupidity to running a white splash.
Because it might come up my list with the white splash and the reasoning for everything is:
Plateau: If I'm splashing White this is the best option. It's fetchable, casts bolt, and sacs to Fireblast, none of which Karakas does. The only downsides are that it dies to Wasteland and Price of Progress can now deal me damage, though I only run 2 so it doesn't come up too often. This is the only maindeck piece of the package.
Deflecting Palm: While not a permanent solution to a big creature like Path to Exile is, it can be a permanent solution to the opponent. Hits Emerakul as it does not target which kind of makes it an Ashen Rider that matters in other matchups.
Path to Exile: This is the cleanest solution for big creatures I can think of, as letting my opponent gain life off Swords to Plowshares seemed awful. Interacts with a landed Iona on Red, which allows me to run graveyard hate that doesn't come down turn 0-1 (and in the case of Relic replaces itself) and not just scoop to Reanimator.
Though I had not played with Sulfuric Vortex for 5 years, and for the last 3 years the card was sitting in my sideboard. Currently Sulfuric Vortex is sitting in my secondary sideboard, technologically it's put on the side and often used when I'm playing mutiplayer/casually.
The major flaw with Sulfuric Vortex is that the card cost 3 mana. And we typically have 2 lands in our opening hand and sometimes draw the 3rd land within the next 3 turns. The other problematic issue with Sulfuric Vortex is playing it after Eidolon of the Great Revel is in play. It sort of handicaps us in the damage race.
Splash... originally splash was a big deal because the original burn deck were packed with disposable spells and disposable creatures and loosing a land was a big deal. Later, a few players developed a theory called virtual card advantage. The theory assumes that the opponent has removal cards in hand and we can screw the opponent over by playing cards that disallows the opponent form casting/playing such cards. I'm being honest, this is a BS theory and it only works if you want to screw the opponent over with wasteland. Not by land removal but by forcing the opponent to regret they dropped a wasteland in play when an island/or other mana sources would had been a much better card in the early turns. And the theory seemed to forget cards like brainstorm so the opponent can filter less useful cards for something better.
1, I have no known way to search for the land therefore drawing up the land is luck draw. You have a better chance is dealing 5 damage with a Thunderous Wrath than drawing up a Karakas when needed. And I played against a player that is playing with one Thunderous Wrath in their burn deck and I seen it come up for the miracle play more than once.
2, No red mana, unfortunately we have very little that requires a colorless mana source so the use of the land is very limited, and forces us to play another land drop.
3, cannot fireblast... It would really, really suck to have 2 lands in play, a mountain and a Karakas and a fireblast in your hand.
Maybe it's me but why not put the 2 Deflecting Palm in your main and take the 2 Sulfuric Vortex and put them in your sideboard.
Basically running anything that requires white mainboard greatly magnifies the negative impact of a splash. Deflecting Palm main would force me to always fetch at least one Plateau in case I drew it, so then I'm always open to Wasteland and always take damage from Price of Progress. As it stands I only play my duals if they come up naturally or I've boarded in something, thereby minimizing risk.
Definitely not a fan of MD white. Plateau seems fine to support SB action, but I agree that Karakas is a bridge too far.
I still run 2 MD Sulfuric Vortex, and up to 2 in the SB. I could probably use fewer, but it's rarely done me much harm, and has occasionally won games I would have lost.
Thunderous Wrath's problem is that in a 4-turn game, you are roughly twice as likely to have it in your opener (where it's a pseudo-mulligan) or pick it up on your first turn on the draw than to actually draw it when it would help. We'd need something like Brainstorm to make it more reliable, and I'm pretty sure that's not worth it. I think it's been tried, but with mediocre results.
ok... so im about to buy all that i need to make my modern burn playable in legacy. i know they say the splash in legacy but sb optiona get better (maybe in legacy were fine???) but theres also more bolts out of black now. what was everyones consensus? I know there's also Wasteland and things of the sort and Legacy that isn't in modern so maybe mono red is best but it feels wrong to pass up on extra bolts but that could just be the modern in me
The consensus I suppose is the frequency of decks that place. The vast majority are Mono Red.
It’s really a numbers game. Many decks run Wasteland, so the splash will lose you a significant percentage of games due to screw from Wasteland. In order for the splash to be worthwhile, you need to be improving your overall EV more than that. I just can’t see that being the case with the 2-3 cards cards you get from the other colour. For one, you are only positively impacting the post sideboard games, and the cards are likely only relevant against a handful of decks, which likely only account for a few percentage points of the meta.
If you want to splash a colour, my suggestion would be to keep limited to the sideboard, and in fact keep the dual land there to bring in along with the off colour cards.
how does mono red take on leyline or is that even a thing? i know theres anarchy but i dont see us running that. we just gonna try to creature our way there or is there an artifact way to deal with it that i dont realize?
Leyline really isn't a thing in Legacy outside of Enchantress, which you don't see often anyway. You're far more likely to die to a fast combo deck or have your deck shut down by Iona than you are to see Leyline. By "far more likely", I mean that you pretty much never see Leyline. Ever.
So on the idea of splashing I've read a few pages back about the issue with Iona. Why not do what modern does and run swords or path to deal with Iona in the sideboard? I know it involves a splash but having our entire deck shutdown is pretty bad and I don't like the idea of us saying let's just Auto scoop or hope to dodge it
Some people do splash Path to Exile (never Swords), but you run into the problem of opening yourself up to Wasteland, and being immune to Wasteland is one of the virtues of the deck. Burn's main weakness is combo decks, so you can choose to sideboard for a matchup where you're always starting off 0-1 and have to win 2 in a row, or you can choose to sideboard for marginal matchups to make those better.
That said, you generally don't run into Iona coming from anywhere but a graveyard, so graveyard hate generally does the job and is applicable to more decks.
so how big is stifle and cards of the like in the current meta? if going into a blind meta, whats the best sideboard in your guys opinions to cover all my bases? is vexing shusher of any importance for our sb? i bought 2 just in case after watching one of Patrick Sullivan's games and saw he had it in sideboard.
Hey fellow red mages. I’m here to help add some feedback from the last few FNM’s at my LGS. I have played a variety of decks and only lost 1 round in the last 3 weeks. Decks I have played against with tldr summary of each:
Lands: 2-0 basically a super easy win and person I played against admits burn is the worst matchup due to Price of Progress. Essentially get some damage in within the first couple of turns then wait for the crop rotation to finish them off.
Infect: 2-1 pretty easy even though we both misplayed. They only have a limited amount of creatures so having blazes are big here.
Grixis Vial Smasher?: 2-0 never played against it before and the games were very close (1st game was down to 5 and 2nd was down to 2). Vial Smasher + FoW is brutal.
Stoneblade 1: 2-0 This was a American Control which was a cake walk. Red splash was light apparently discussing lists afterwards as I only saw a bolt played in both games.
Stoneblade 2: 1-2 The list was normal Stoneblade with Thopter Foundry + Sword of the Meek combo in it. He got game 1 which I was able to get him down to 2 life before for stabilized with the combo. 2nd game was a blowout as I had my Smash to Smithereens in opener. 3rd game he was able to land a Chill which I didn’t see any of my REB. I had Sulfuric Vortex in hand but got stuck on 4 lands.
Eldrazi: 2-0 Easiest game by far. Price did work along with him doing damage to himself with Ancient Tomb.
U/R Deliver: 2-0 As you might guess by now not difficult in the slightest. Sided in Volcanic Fallout and Searing Blaze and destroyed his board.
Modern U/W control: 2-0 I kinda felt bad but the guy thought his deck was good enough to play in legacy.
If y’all have any questions let me know. I play both modern and legacy regularly as 1 LGS plays modern on Monday and the other plays legacy on Friday.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Of the 2 mainstays, Eidolon seems clearly the better of the two. How good would a burn spell have to be to play it over the Guides?
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
In my estimation from a script simulating generic outs to creatures in the context of modern, guide on the play is worth almost 4 damage and guide on the draw is worth almost 3. Assumptions would have to change for legacy, but I wouldn't expect it to be worse.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
I just realized I misspoke about on the draw. It's worth about 2 on the draw but 3.75 on the play (basically you get a free attack that they can't interact with on the play that you don't get on the draw).
Description is here: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/tier-1-modern/650623-burn?comment=5180
I also agree that Eidolon is being undervalued, as is a mid-game Lavamancer. I'm not exactly sure how those are better modeled, though.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
All-spell versions of the deck suffer from a number of issues. For example, they mulligan much worse. Their Goldfish is slower as well, I believe.
Furthermore, in certain matchups we need to be using many of our Burn spells as removal, so having a creature in those situations is invaluable.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I don't think it's maindeck material personally, but rather that it might be relevant as a sideboard card versus D&T and Elves.
It's very interesting. Not obvious to me whether or not it's better or worse than Vortex.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
All true.
I don't think it does enough to pay off, honestly.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
I think Rampaging Ferocidon is an awesome creature in a modern mono-red build, since modern don't have Sulfuric Vortex...
As for legacy, I can see some players trying 2 in replacement for Sulfuric Vortex - but those players are not playing with Swiftspear...
In his Second 100 days - Yawgmoth's Bargain is unrestricted in Vintage.
What is going to happen in the Next 100 days!!!
2) Use the right number of each card.
3) Know your probabilities.
4) Print your deck lists; make yourself and your judges happier.
I think I'll probably stick with Vortex anyway, as the upsides to Rampaging Ferocidon are seeming more and more fringe. I'll keep my stupidity to running a white splash.
Because it might come up my list with the white splash and the reasoning for everything is:
3 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
7 Mountain
2 Plateau
3 Wooded Foothills
Creatures(14)
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Fireblast
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Price of Progress
3 Searing Blaze
Sorceries(12)
4 Chain Lightning
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lava Spike
Enchantments(2)
2 Sulfuric Vortex
2 Deflecting Palm
3 Path to Exile
2 Pyroblast
2 Red Elemental Blast
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Smash to Smithereens
2 Wear // Tear
Plateau: If I'm splashing White this is the best option. It's fetchable, casts bolt, and sacs to Fireblast, none of which Karakas does. The only downsides are that it dies to Wasteland and Price of Progress can now deal me damage, though I only run 2 so it doesn't come up too often. This is the only maindeck piece of the package.
Deflecting Palm: While not a permanent solution to a big creature like Path to Exile is, it can be a permanent solution to the opponent. Hits Emerakul as it does not target which kind of makes it an Ashen Rider that matters in other matchups.
Path to Exile: This is the cleanest solution for big creatures I can think of, as letting my opponent gain life off Swords to Plowshares seemed awful. Interacts with a landed Iona on Red, which allows me to run graveyard hate that doesn't come down turn 0-1 (and in the case of Relic replaces itself) and not just scoop to Reanimator.
Wear // Tear: Loses the 3 damage that Smash to Smithereens dose, but is also Demystify for Leyline of Sanctity or Chill or what have you. Not a full replacement, but I feel like the utility is worth it in such a broad format.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
White or Black splash makes sense, especially when you don't want to 'auto lose' to something like a second turn Iona, Shield of Emeria drop.
@AteValve
A lot of player like Sulfuric Vortex because you can deal 4 damage for the win, as well as shut down gain life decks.
I think Rampaging Ferocidon is going to be a bigger card in Modern format because it's close to Sulfuric Vortex.
Though I had not played with Sulfuric Vortex for 5 years, and for the last 3 years the card was sitting in my sideboard. Currently Sulfuric Vortex is sitting in my secondary sideboard, technologically it's put on the side and often used when I'm playing mutiplayer/casually.
The major flaw with Sulfuric Vortex is that the card cost 3 mana. And we typically have 2 lands in our opening hand and sometimes draw the 3rd land within the next 3 turns. The other problematic issue with Sulfuric Vortex is playing it after Eidolon of the Great Revel is in play. It sort of handicaps us in the damage race.
Splash... originally splash was a big deal because the original burn deck were packed with disposable spells and disposable creatures and loosing a land was a big deal. Later, a few players developed a theory called virtual card advantage. The theory assumes that the opponent has removal cards in hand and we can screw the opponent over by playing cards that disallows the opponent form casting/playing such cards. I'm being honest, this is a BS theory and it only works if you want to screw the opponent over with wasteland. Not by land removal but by forcing the opponent to regret they dropped a wasteland in play when an island/or other mana sources would had been a much better card in the early turns. And the theory seemed to forget cards like brainstorm so the opponent can filter less useful cards for something better.
If Virtual Card advantage did work Eidolon of the Great Revel, Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear and Grim Lavamancer would be unplayable.
3 things stop me from playing Karakas...
1, I have no known way to search for the land therefore drawing up the land is luck draw. You have a better chance is dealing 5 damage with a Thunderous Wrath than drawing up a Karakas when needed. And I played against a player that is playing with one Thunderous Wrath in their burn deck and I seen it come up for the miracle play more than once.
2, No red mana, unfortunately we have very little that requires a colorless mana source so the use of the land is very limited, and forces us to play another land drop.
3, cannot fireblast... It would really, really suck to have 2 lands in play, a mountain and a Karakas and a fireblast in your hand.
Maybe it's me but why not put the 2 Deflecting Palm in your main and take the 2 Sulfuric Vortex and put them in your sideboard.
In his Second 100 days - Yawgmoth's Bargain is unrestricted in Vintage.
What is going to happen in the Next 100 days!!!
If I were to make any changes I would move Sulfuric Vortex to the side over 1 Path to Exile and 1 Red Elemental Blast and run 2 Grim Lavamancer main.
I still run 2 MD Sulfuric Vortex, and up to 2 in the SB. I could probably use fewer, but it's rarely done me much harm, and has occasionally won games I would have lost.
Thunderous Wrath's problem is that in a 4-turn game, you are roughly twice as likely to have it in your opener (where it's a pseudo-mulligan) or pick it up on your first turn on the draw than to actually draw it when it would help. We'd need something like Brainstorm to make it more reliable, and I'm pretty sure that's not worth it. I think it's been tried, but with mediocre results.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
It’s really a numbers game. Many decks run Wasteland, so the splash will lose you a significant percentage of games due to screw from Wasteland. In order for the splash to be worthwhile, you need to be improving your overall EV more than that. I just can’t see that being the case with the 2-3 cards cards you get from the other colour. For one, you are only positively impacting the post sideboard games, and the cards are likely only relevant against a handful of decks, which likely only account for a few percentage points of the meta.
If you want to splash a colour, my suggestion would be to keep limited to the sideboard, and in fact keep the dual land there to bring in along with the off colour cards.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
That said, you generally don't run into Iona coming from anywhere but a graveyard, so graveyard hate generally does the job and is applicable to more decks.
Lands: 2-0 basically a super easy win and person I played against admits burn is the worst matchup due to Price of Progress. Essentially get some damage in within the first couple of turns then wait for the crop rotation to finish them off.
Infect: 2-1 pretty easy even though we both misplayed. They only have a limited amount of creatures so having blazes are big here.
Grixis Vial Smasher?: 2-0 never played against it before and the games were very close (1st game was down to 5 and 2nd was down to 2). Vial Smasher + FoW is brutal.
Stoneblade 1: 2-0 This was a American Control which was a cake walk. Red splash was light apparently discussing lists afterwards as I only saw a bolt played in both games.
Stoneblade 2: 1-2 The list was normal Stoneblade with Thopter Foundry + Sword of the Meek combo in it. He got game 1 which I was able to get him down to 2 life before for stabilized with the combo. 2nd game was a blowout as I had my Smash to Smithereens in opener. 3rd game he was able to land a Chill which I didn’t see any of my REB. I had Sulfuric Vortex in hand but got stuck on 4 lands.
Eldrazi: 2-0 Easiest game by far. Price did work along with him doing damage to himself with Ancient Tomb.
U/R Deliver: 2-0 As you might guess by now not difficult in the slightest. Sided in Volcanic Fallout and Searing Blaze and destroyed his board.
Modern U/W control: 2-0 I kinda felt bad but the guy thought his deck was good enough to play in legacy.
If y’all have any questions let me know. I play both modern and legacy regularly as 1 LGS plays modern on Monday and the other plays legacy on Friday.