Quote from rstevens416 If i do remove the chalice combo, ill added SOTD and TOA back into it then change up my mana base for some tutors.
Quote from LordOMJ
Your reasoning re: Noxious Revival seems sound. I'll definitely have to test with the card.
Quote from -spooky-Multiple Multinies presence works for multiple draws from one card, multiple chalice does not.
Quote from crimheadNo, but they'll get you a card, so at least they're not dead.
Quote from rstevens416Wait so u have mutliple Multani's Presence in play, and a chalice at 0, if you play a cherri0, you only get one draw and not all triggers?
Quote from ~AutimnZephyr~For those who aren't running the Multani's Presence combo main, I still suggest that you should run it in the side in case of opposing Chalices, and those that run the song of the damned, what is your answer to Leyline of void?
Also, what about against Leyline of Sanctity?
Quote from serenechaosGood comments, all.
I'd like to point out that most of the probabilities I listed were derived using an incorrect equation (which I discovered when I worked out a 120% to draw a mana source...). The correct probabilities are as follows:
40% to open with Glimpse in a deck without Probes; 42.3% in a deck with Probes. (The rest of the probabilities are all assumed to be in Probe decks)
62.9% to open with either Glimpse OR Gamble
53.2% to open with Glimpse OR Gamble AND 2 mana sources
52.4% to open with Glimpse OR Gamble AND 2 mana sources AND 3 0-drop creatures (99.5% to open with one 0-drop, 98.5% to open with 3 0-drops)
More number crunching to come when I have time =)
Quote from LordOwlingtonIIIYou might want to check your math:
My math says you have a 60% chance of at least one Glimpse or gamble, (4 and 3 right? 65% if it's 4 and 4.) This makes your Success rate with gamble just over 25%
Also, you don't want to probe for a win, you want to probe to get past a stall. A hand with six Good Stuff and one probe won't be a keeper, unless you're willing to bank on a 13% chance to not-whiff. (goes up to 25% if you're on the draw.)
Quote from serenechaosHowever, A hand with 2 Probes, or a Probe and a Land Grant, is perfectly keepable in my eyes, unless you fear a turn one win from the opponent. This hand has a 45% chance of seeing Glimpse or a Tutor by turn 3.
I'm also not sure what you mean by the "success rate with Gamble". If you mean the success rate of using Gamble and not discarding the card you need, that it always equal to x/n, where x is the number of cards you don't mind discarding, and n is the number of cards in your hand. Other statistics, such as the likelihood of having Gamble in the opening hand, don't affect this number at all.
Quote from LordOwlingtonIII
The chances are the odds you will have gable in your hand, and that it won't result in it's own failure. This number is misleading, since for it to even be relevent you have to not have access to glimpse (a condition that lowers the chances of the event even happening)
Quote from serenechaosRight, but as I said, the odds of having a Gamble and the odds of Gamble discarding the card you need, are not related. Gamble's success rate is always based on the number of cards in your hand (usually in the 80-85% range). Even if you're trying to calculate the number of hypothetical games where Gamble works, the rate is based on your hand. If you think about it, taking into account the chance of having a Gamble in hand doesn't really make sense: in the hands where you don't have Gamble, Gamble isn't "failing", so there's no math to be done. You have to ONLY take into account the hands in which you already have Gamble.