There's been a lot of discussion recently about the health of Legacy. I feel that there are a lot of misguided opinions, so I started a blog and wrote a (very) long post about why I'm not not concerned.
I apologize for its extreme length, but this is a complicated issue and I wanted to do it the justice it deserves rather than reduce it to some short talking points. tl;dr included.
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Due to real-life obligations, I am taking a long break from Magic which may include missing the local Legacy GP. Apologies for not being able to keep my threads updated.
There's been a lot of discussion recently about the health of Legacy. I feel that there are a lot of misguided opinions, so I started a blog and wrote a (very) long post about why I'm not not concerned.
I apologize for its extreme length, but this is a complicated issue and I wanted to do it the justice it deserves rather than reduce it to some short talking points. tl;dr included.
I'm not sure if it is just me but I can't see the Blog post. I get this message instead:
WorstBandNameEver, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:
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I'm not sure if it is just me but I can't see the Blog post. I get this message instead:
WorstBandNameEver, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:
I would love to read it.
I just fixed it (I think). I'm a noob with this blog stuff, but I found the blog CP. It should be now available to all users and guests.
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Due to real-life obligations, I am taking a long break from Magic which may include missing the local Legacy GP. Apologies for not being able to keep my threads updated.
The fetches are arguably more important staples to the format than Dual Lands are. If supply of dual lands ever becomes scarce, I expect to see more fetches and fewer duals, as the fetches can still fetch duals as long as you have at least 1 in the deck, in addition to providing a shuffle and synergy with various graveyard effects.
I also think it's interesting how much prices on Modern cards shoot up, despite the format not being as popular as standard or legacy. My thought is that this may be something that is actively encouraged by Starcity, to keep the price of Modern high in order to keep it seeming unattractive in comparison to Legacy. This is verging on conspiracy theory, but it's certainly not ungrounded in truth - when Modern Masters was announced to contain everything up through Shards, Starcity started swooping up Zendikar block staples (notably the fetches, many of which doubled or better in a week).
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#4: It is not cost-prohibitive for a Standard player to get into Modern, because the card pool overlaps. Shocklands are legal in both formats. Snapcaster Mage, Geist of Saint Traft, Restoration Angel and Thundermaw Hellkite are some high-dollar items that see play in both formats (only SCM is played in both Standard and Legacy, in comparison).
If you own UWR Midrange or RG Aggro in Standard, you can upgrade it to be competitive in Modern for a small sum. I calculated that UWR Midrange in Modern, minus the Standard-legal cards, costs $600, using TCGPlayer mid prices. Feel free to do the same for Legacy.
In fact, if you owned a Standard deck at some point and didn't sell the cards, it's very likely that you can build a competitive Modern deck from the pieces.
I'd appreciate it if you can write a balanced article without bashing or stating falsehoods about Modern. Thanks.
I highly doubt starcity has the power to set prices like that. It simply alters price based on demand changes.
Everyone was buying zendikar fetches and modern staples in anticipation the format would get good months before the price increase. I personally have like 100 zendikar fetches, mostly blue ones.
It depends what are people willing to trade at. $25 for a fetch is definitely a price people are willing to trade. $12 is like Ravnica land.
I see Modern becoming more and more popular as Legacy staples continue to rise; I feel this is inevitable. While I don't like a format where everything potentially good is banned, I don't believe many people have the money to spend on 2-3 Jace, sets of LEDs and FOWs, Karakas, and many other cards present in top Legacy decks.
The rise of Jace, in particular, is undoubtedly unhealthy for the format (Legacy) because the cost of entry will scare off potential new players. They should reprint him, obviously, but how?
I like read it, I liked it, I agreed with most of it.
What I didn't understand is why an article like this was pitted against Modern. I guess to make a point, but the article could've been full written without the comparisons to Modern, and IMO would've been a more enjoyable read.
As some who plays Constructed magic, not just Legacy, but primarily, I still play Modern and Standard, and really just enjoy playing Magic. And I'm sure I'm not the only one.
Again, the points you made were great, but I could've done with out the harsh comparisons towards a different format.
I also would've actually liked the mention of EDH as being the defacto format to why rising cards prices haven't actually gone down, as proof that casual players really do drive the secondary market pricing, but I'm sure that could be saved for another blog post
A lot of the issue with reprinting legacy staples not on the reserved list is; how does WotC go about this without: 1) Causing problems in Standard 2) Causing Problems in Modern 3) Printing enough to actually cause the price to drop enough that makes it accessible to players who want them.
1 and 2 are sort of in the same boat - you can't just shove FoW into lets say M14 so that the price gets driven down; it then becomes legal in Standard and Modern....and I do not think WotC wants to reprint legacy staples that will need to instantly be added to Moderns ban list (some cards may not impact standard so much, and some may impact it too much). 3 bring into the other issue; adding a card like Wasteland or something into a limited print run doesn't increase supply enough to lower the price; and often times when a card gets a limited run reprint, its in foil, which just ends up costing even more.
What they need is something similar to Modern Masters but for Legacy.
I agree with the article completely. I even dislike modern and play it only because there seem to be so many events. I do however agree that the article could have been written without bashing modern so hard. Mention the pricing issues and how top down strategies don't work eg. extended.
As far as reprinting off the reserved list, I do believe there is a way that wizards could do it without causing price problems and still increasing support for the format. Doing something to MAINTAIN card prices would be better since many current legacy players would be upset if there collection was to devalue.
What i personally believe would be a fix to modern is to un-ban nearly everything again, and give the format time to self correct. Unless a card is seeing play in nearly every deck then there isn't a need to ban it, there will definitely be decks that emerge incredibly strong, but with only a few decks dominating the format it is much easier to construct for a specific meta. This is just my opinion and would initially hurt the format, but there is no way to make everyone happy.
As stated, you make some excellent points, and while i dislike the modern format, i feel that you could clearly make valid points that support legacy without bashing modern quite so much.
That said, great post, i agree with it. Let people panic, more staples for the rest of us
In an odd sounding way I think it's standard that is hurting legacy and that's because if the reprint policy. When you can't have 2 mana counterspells, 3 mana land destruction, etc in a format where cards would end up being reprinted in it makes it almost impossible for force of will and similar cards to exist. Small print runs like the commander and soon to be modern masters also won't help by nature of being limited production. If there comes a time when a card like force of will can be printed in standard I would expect a second genesis of legacy.
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standard isnt the issue if they wanted to reprint reserve list all theyd have to do is make "legacy masters" and make it cost 2 times the cost of modern masters.
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I highly doubt starcity has the power to set prices like that. It simply alters price based on demand changes.
Everyone was buying zendikar fetches and modern staples in anticipation the format would get good months before the price increase. I personally have like 100 zendikar fetches, mostly blue ones.
It depends what are people willing to trade at. $25 for a fetch is definitely a price people are willing to trade. $12 is like Ravnica land.
Starcity does indeed have the power to set prices like that. They have tons of money sitting around to invest in inventory, and they literally went and bought up every copy listed below a certain price. Repeat for a few days and the market automatically adjusts upwards, and they can then sell those cards at that new price.
Case in point: Modern Masters was announced on October 10th, and the full description was on Wotc's website Oct 22nd, where it stated the scope ended at Alara.
On October 7th, Misty Rainforest was about $14 low, $17 median on TCGplayer. On the 21st, it was $15/18. On October 26th, the price was $29 low, $33 median, a near doubling in price over the course of a few days.
Also, it's funny you say Fetch = $25, Shock = $12 like it's been that way forever. Before this price hike and RtR block, those numbers were effectively reversed.
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@battozi: I thin you missed it, but printed an expensive limited run of cards like modern masters is the exact opposite of what is needed. A limited run will only serve to further inflate prices of what people already perceive as a barrier. Ideally they need to be released into the standard environment to ensure high print numbers and high availability. All the while the reprints would have to be done so as not to warp the low power level associated with standard.
@Dyne: I honestly would agree too. But "new people don't like having their spells countered" so you don't see 2cc counterspells for the same reason you don't see 3cc land destruction. I honestly think modern needs a "force of will" for it to get somewhere.
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i actually think were going to find out soon that modern masters despite the limited print actually going to drop prices quite a bit. I think the average value of a pack of modern masters after its been opened is going to by far outweight the msrp of the pack. So as long as the stores sell packs at msrp the way they are supposed to the average cost of those cards will go down. If im right then it would be an effective way to reprint the reserve list without spamming a card like force of will down to $20 which is way too low and would be too impactful on the business side of stores that sell singles. A limited print run is the only way that wizards could possibly print them otherwise they basically rob card stores of far too much money. Its one thing for the prices of a collector or players collection to drop, but its entirely different to screw a business. Thus wizards would probably only print a limited run that they expect would drop the price no more than 25%...which i believe is what they are trying to do with modern masters.
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I took a look at what you guys said about the section on Modern being too heavy handed. That's probably correct. I will readily admit that I am not a fan of Modern as it's currently constructed, and even though I tried to be objective in this section (largely citing problems as the pros see it), my bias is showing and I may have gone overboard (I could have cited fewer pros).
Still, it was necessary for me to highlight why Modern doesn't appeal to a lot of players, particularly because I think Wizards' "top-down" method of building the format is miserable. I do strongly think they are alienating a lot of the rank-and-file players too with the bannings and high costs, but those are factors that can be alleviated. I mean, I do think Modern is a good idea in principle, but too many people extend that to think that Modern will displace Legacy, so I had to point out why Modern is lacking as a replacement for Legacy.
@Izzet: I don't think I was unfair about the barrier to entry for Modern though, although perhaps I can concede that Modern Masters can push prices dramatically downward (but I'm skeptical on that). I do note throughout the article that prospective Legacy and Modern players alike largely do build their decks on at a time from cards they already have. You are correct that there's greater overlap between Standard and Modern than between Standard and Legacy, but while the cross-format playability of Snapcasters, Lillianas, Geists, etc. can make the hurdle easier, they are still not "free".
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You will probably find modern masters makes cards spike even higher in price. That is the nature of a limited run. Also this seems more likely given the previous non limited reprints tend to cause a spike in price. More then likely first printings will gain value while typically the higher print run reprint gets a lower price due to art/collectibility/pimp factor/etc.
The other side to that is simply MSRP. It's the suggested price. But unless you are getting modern masters from k-mart, you should expect inflated prices from game stores and as a result inflated prices in the cards themselves. The secondary market is also where more stores will make money. It then makes even more sense for stores to open packs and sell singles especially when you are assured of "premium chase cards".
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too many people extend that to think that Modern will displace Legacy, so I had to point out why Modern is lacking as a replacement for Legacy.
You can do that without bashing Modern. Here, I'll help you:
"Modern is not going to replace Legacy because the two formats cater to different kinds of players."
Here is an example of what not to write:
"Modern is not going to replace Legacy because all the pros agree that Modern sucks."
You wrote, regarding the cost of entry to Modern: 1) new players rarely jump directly into older formats without experiencing the newer sets
2) the cost of entry is currently almost as prohibitive for Modern.
I counter:
1) After they have "experienced" the newer sets, the number of Modern staples that they own is higher than the number of Legacy staples that they own.
2) You kind of answered it yourself there: $1350 < $2000. I think all that talk about Legacy cards maintaining their value (and Modern cards not) is irrelevant, because cashing out is the last thing on a new player's mind - if they really like the format, and it's supposed to be one where you can play the same deck forever, why would they think of quitting?
I actually have more to say about the myth of Modern cards not holding value after a ban or reprint, but I'll save it.
Ironically, I have met several Legacy/Vintage players who are willing to see the Reserved List abolished just so more people could get into those formats, even if it meant that their collection took a nosedive in value. I wonder, if you tell someone that the RL will keep him safe, then show them a veteran who wants the RL abolished, what message you'd be sending him.
Wasteland, on the other, will never see the light of day again.
Ain't it the truth. Having zero experience in Modern, I have to ask...is the life cost of Rav duals and whatever the issues are with other land options enough to deter designers from splashing with impunity? In other words, does Modern actually "need" Wasteland? I think I have seen people post an opinion that it does.
Frankly, I see Wasteland as a safety net that Legacy depends upon only because Revised Duals are so ubiquitous as to render it necessary all the time. That is, we abuse it because we don't have a more elegant means to keep manabases from all going to five colors. It is an elephant gun to a problem that wants a hyperdermic needle. I suppose Price of Progress is a card. But mostly this job is done by Wasteland. I miss the days of looking at a new set and actually caring which new lands were in it. The bar is really high in Legacy for a land card to be worth anything at all. Same with counterspells. Wasteland sure is a fun card to use, don't get me wrong, just as Force of Will is a fun way to hold back the tide of the turn 1 decks like Belcher, Tin Fins, Fetchland Tendrils, etc. Not elegant. But sure as heck effective. That is Legacy. Everyone is holding busted cards that somehow equal it out.
I suppose what I am saying is that I think wotc is still trying to get it right with Modern. I don't think we can make meaningful assumptions about the future of the format on any front yet. Retention of value for its staples can change just as radically as the fun factor if wotc decides to overhaul it because they want to change the direction of the format. If you think about it, people really like playing with powerful cards. To keep Modern from feeling like Legacy-lite, they kinda have to nip a lot of those fun cards. That is going to be an issue forever unless they can work something out. It probably is not worth getting upset over though. What might be an interesting use of brainpower would be for us to figure out a way to spice up Modern despite its Scylla and Charybdis. With the current setup, there is just no way wotc can seriously consider defunding Legacy no matter what happens to Modern. I think there is near universal opinion that it is the most fun of the constructed formats, so don't worry about it. Let's just ride along together and see what happens. It's a game.
Rereading that, I feel like I should say "smoke this" at the end.
Ain't it the truth. Having zero experience in Modern, I have to ask...is the life cost of Rav duals and whatever the issues are with other land options enough to deter designers from splashing with impunity? In other words, does Modern actually "need" Wasteland? I think I have seen people post an opinion that it does.
Yeah, bolting yourself can be a big issue in that format, people like to play Bolt/Helix/Tribal Flames, plus affinity and RDW are always there. It doesn't always matter, but its something you have to think about. Two color in modern is just as viable as 5 color there. Wasteland would turn the format on its head though, because there are decks like tron that depend on colorless producing lands or manlands.
Frankly, I see Wasteland as a safety net that Legacy depends upon only because Revised Duals are so ubiquitous as to render it necessary all the time. That is, we abuse it because we don't have a more elegant means to keep manabases from all going to five colors. It is an elephant gun to a problem that wants a hyperdermic needle. I suppose Price of Progress is a card. But mostly this job is done by Wasteland. I miss the days of looking at a new set and actually caring which new lands were in it. The bar is really high in Legacy for a land card to be worth anything at all. Same with counterspells. Wasteland sure is a fun card to use, don't get me wrong, just as Force of Will is a fun way to hold back the tide of the turn 1 decks like Belcher, Tin Fins, Fetchland Tendrils, etc. Not elegant. But sure as heck effective. That is Legacy. Everyone is holding busted cards that somehow equal it out.
I always had the same feeling, amazing mana required an equally amazing answer. I kinda feel like blood moon and stifle are justified for the same reasons, the latter being to counter the power of fetchlands. If wasteland did not exist, legacy might have problems as a viable format, since there would be little reason not to splash any color you choose.
People who say legacy is doomed just want the format to fail and don't have the cards or want to invest in the format. Honestly you can play a deck like Goblins or MUD for the price a little above that of a modern deck. Neither of those decks are going to have anything banned.
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I think one point that could have been is how the price increases of inter-format staples (Dark Confidant, Goyf, Thoughtseize, etc.) effects the cost of legacy. For example, its funny to think that WoTC created Modern to be a non-rotating and "affordable" alternative to legacy, presumably due to the fact that the cost of entry to legacy was too high. Though as any Mtg price graph will show, the average price of cards that were previously legacy staples doubled and tripled between the months of July and September 2011, which was of course immediately following the announcement by WoTC of Modern as an official format, and a PT format at that. Of course, the prices of these inter-format staples have only increased over time.
Keeping this in mind, its worth noting that with the exception of fetchands, none of the original dual lands have yet climbed over 100% in value since the beginning of Modern. As for the fetchlands increasing in price, blame Modern Masters for not including Zendikar block. It's not a coincidence that the prices of the Zenidkar fetchlands doubledjust days after the announcement of Modern Masters. The irony is of course that Modern is in fact a "top down" format as LotP explains in the OP.
I apologize for its extreme length, but this is a complicated issue and I wanted to do it the justice it deserves rather than reduce it to some short talking points. tl;dr included.
Legacy
UWR Miracles UWR
GWB Maverick GWB
GB Elves GB
UBR ANT UBR
RG Combo Lands RG
Vintage
BUG BUG Fish BUG
Modern
GBW
Junk PodMagic: the BuylistingI'm not sure if it is just me but I can't see the Blog post. I get this message instead:
WorstBandNameEver, you do not have permission to access this page. This could be due to one of several reasons:
I would love to read it.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=4832736
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I just fixed it (I think). I'm a noob with this blog stuff, but I found the blog CP. It should be now available to all users and guests.
Legacy
UWR Miracles UWR
GWB Maverick GWB
GB Elves GB
UBR ANT UBR
RG Combo Lands RG
Vintage
BUG BUG Fish BUG
Modern
GBW
Junk PodMagic: the BuylistingOne thing I think you did miss is the fact that many non-dual staples are NOT reserve-listed. Notably, if you look at the top-played cards in the format (http://www.metamox.com/staples.php), you need to get to the 15th most-played card before you hit something reserve-listed. This includes high-value but reprintable cards like Wasteland, Force of Will, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Polluted Delta, and Flooded Strand.
The fetches are arguably more important staples to the format than Dual Lands are. If supply of dual lands ever becomes scarce, I expect to see more fetches and fewer duals, as the fetches can still fetch duals as long as you have at least 1 in the deck, in addition to providing a shuffle and synergy with various graveyard effects.
I also think it's interesting how much prices on Modern cards shoot up, despite the format not being as popular as standard or legacy. My thought is that this may be something that is actively encouraged by Starcity, to keep the price of Modern high in order to keep it seeming unattractive in comparison to Legacy. This is verging on conspiracy theory, but it's certainly not ungrounded in truth - when Modern Masters was announced to contain everything up through Shards, Starcity started swooping up Zendikar block staples (notably the fetches, many of which doubled or better in a week).
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#2: "Modern sucks, 10/10 pros agree!"
#4: It is not cost-prohibitive for a Standard player to get into Modern, because the card pool overlaps. Shocklands are legal in both formats. Snapcaster Mage, Geist of Saint Traft, Restoration Angel and Thundermaw Hellkite are some high-dollar items that see play in both formats (only SCM is played in both Standard and Legacy, in comparison).
If you own UWR Midrange or RG Aggro in Standard, you can upgrade it to be competitive in Modern for a small sum. I calculated that UWR Midrange in Modern, minus the Standard-legal cards, costs $600, using TCGPlayer mid prices. Feel free to do the same for Legacy.
In fact, if you owned a Standard deck at some point and didn't sell the cards, it's very likely that you can build a competitive Modern deck from the pieces.
I'd appreciate it if you can write a balanced article without bashing or stating falsehoods about Modern. Thanks.
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Everyone was buying zendikar fetches and modern staples in anticipation the format would get good months before the price increase. I personally have like 100 zendikar fetches, mostly blue ones.
It depends what are people willing to trade at. $25 for a fetch is definitely a price people are willing to trade. $12 is like Ravnica land.
The rise of Jace, in particular, is undoubtedly unhealthy for the format (Legacy) because the cost of entry will scare off potential new players. They should reprint him, obviously, but how?
What I didn't understand is why an article like this was pitted against Modern. I guess to make a point, but the article could've been full written without the comparisons to Modern, and IMO would've been a more enjoyable read.
As some who plays Constructed magic, not just Legacy, but primarily, I still play Modern and Standard, and really just enjoy playing Magic. And I'm sure I'm not the only one.
Again, the points you made were great, but I could've done with out the harsh comparisons towards a different format.
I also would've actually liked the mention of EDH as being the defacto format to why rising cards prices haven't actually gone down, as proof that casual players really do drive the secondary market pricing, but I'm sure that could be saved for another blog post
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1 and 2 are sort of in the same boat - you can't just shove FoW into lets say M14 so that the price gets driven down; it then becomes legal in Standard and Modern....and I do not think WotC wants to reprint legacy staples that will need to instantly be added to Moderns ban list (some cards may not impact standard so much, and some may impact it too much). 3 bring into the other issue; adding a card like Wasteland or something into a limited print run doesn't increase supply enough to lower the price; and often times when a card gets a limited run reprint, its in foil, which just ends up costing even more.
What they need is something similar to Modern Masters but for Legacy.
WBG Karador GBW
R Daretti R
RG Omnath GR
WRG Modern Burn GRW
WB Modern Tokens BW
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As far as reprinting off the reserved list, I do believe there is a way that wizards could do it without causing price problems and still increasing support for the format. Doing something to MAINTAIN card prices would be better since many current legacy players would be upset if there collection was to devalue.
What i personally believe would be a fix to modern is to un-ban nearly everything again, and give the format time to self correct. Unless a card is seeing play in nearly every deck then there isn't a need to ban it, there will definitely be decks that emerge incredibly strong, but with only a few decks dominating the format it is much easier to construct for a specific meta. This is just my opinion and would initially hurt the format, but there is no way to make everyone happy.
That said, great post, i agree with it. Let people panic, more staples for the rest of us
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"Some have said there is no subtlety to destruction. You know what? They're dead."
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Death&Taxes
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Starcity does indeed have the power to set prices like that. They have tons of money sitting around to invest in inventory, and they literally went and bought up every copy listed below a certain price. Repeat for a few days and the market automatically adjusts upwards, and they can then sell those cards at that new price.
Case in point: Modern Masters was announced on October 10th, and the full description was on Wotc's website Oct 22nd, where it stated the scope ended at Alara.
On October 7th, Misty Rainforest was about $14 low, $17 median on TCGplayer. On the 21st, it was $15/18. On October 26th, the price was $29 low, $33 median, a near doubling in price over the course of a few days.
Also, it's funny you say Fetch = $25, Shock = $12 like it's been that way forever. Before this price hike and RtR block, those numbers were effectively reversed.
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Wasteland, on the other, will never see the light of day again.
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@Dyne: I honestly would agree too. But "new people don't like having their spells countered" so you don't see 2cc counterspells for the same reason you don't see 3cc land destruction. I honestly think modern needs a "force of will" for it to get somewhere.
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Death&Taxes
--refusing to casting Force of Will since 2010--
I took a look at what you guys said about the section on Modern being too heavy handed. That's probably correct. I will readily admit that I am not a fan of Modern as it's currently constructed, and even though I tried to be objective in this section (largely citing problems as the pros see it), my bias is showing and I may have gone overboard (I could have cited fewer pros).
Still, it was necessary for me to highlight why Modern doesn't appeal to a lot of players, particularly because I think Wizards' "top-down" method of building the format is miserable. I do strongly think they are alienating a lot of the rank-and-file players too with the bannings and high costs, but those are factors that can be alleviated. I mean, I do think Modern is a good idea in principle, but too many people extend that to think that Modern will displace Legacy, so I had to point out why Modern is lacking as a replacement for Legacy.
@Izzet: I don't think I was unfair about the barrier to entry for Modern though, although perhaps I can concede that Modern Masters can push prices dramatically downward (but I'm skeptical on that). I do note throughout the article that prospective Legacy and Modern players alike largely do build their decks on at a time from cards they already have. You are correct that there's greater overlap between Standard and Modern than between Standard and Legacy, but while the cross-format playability of Snapcasters, Lillianas, Geists, etc. can make the hurdle easier, they are still not "free".
Legacy
UWR Miracles UWR
GWB Maverick GWB
GB Elves GB
UBR ANT UBR
RG Combo Lands RG
Vintage
BUG BUG Fish BUG
Modern
GBW
Junk PodMagic: the BuylistingThe other side to that is simply MSRP. It's the suggested price. But unless you are getting modern masters from k-mart, you should expect inflated prices from game stores and as a result inflated prices in the cards themselves. The secondary market is also where more stores will make money. It then makes even more sense for stores to open packs and sell singles especially when you are assured of "premium chase cards".
-----The Legacy Flowchart-----
Tiny Leaders Overlord
You can do that without bashing Modern. Here, I'll help you:
"Modern is not going to replace Legacy because the two formats cater to different kinds of players."
Here is an example of what not to write:
"Modern is not going to replace Legacy because all the pros agree that Modern sucks."
You wrote, regarding the cost of entry to Modern:
1) new players rarely jump directly into older formats without experiencing the newer sets
2) the cost of entry is currently almost as prohibitive for Modern.
I counter:
1) After they have "experienced" the newer sets, the number of Modern staples that they own is higher than the number of Legacy staples that they own.
2) You kind of answered it yourself there: $1350 < $2000. I think all that talk about Legacy cards maintaining their value (and Modern cards not) is irrelevant, because cashing out is the last thing on a new player's mind - if they really like the format, and it's supposed to be one where you can play the same deck forever, why would they think of quitting?
I actually have more to say about the myth of Modern cards not holding value after a ban or reprint, but I'll save it.
Ironically, I have met several Legacy/Vintage players who are willing to see the Reserved List abolished just so more people could get into those formats, even if it meant that their collection took a nosedive in value. I wonder, if you tell someone that the RL will keep him safe, then show them a veteran who wants the RL abolished, what message you'd be sending him.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
Frankly, I see Wasteland as a safety net that Legacy depends upon only because Revised Duals are so ubiquitous as to render it necessary all the time. That is, we abuse it because we don't have a more elegant means to keep manabases from all going to five colors. It is an elephant gun to a problem that wants a hyperdermic needle. I suppose Price of Progress is a card. But mostly this job is done by Wasteland. I miss the days of looking at a new set and actually caring which new lands were in it. The bar is really high in Legacy for a land card to be worth anything at all. Same with counterspells. Wasteland sure is a fun card to use, don't get me wrong, just as Force of Will is a fun way to hold back the tide of the turn 1 decks like Belcher, Tin Fins, Fetchland Tendrils, etc. Not elegant. But sure as heck effective. That is Legacy. Everyone is holding busted cards that somehow equal it out.
I suppose what I am saying is that I think wotc is still trying to get it right with Modern. I don't think we can make meaningful assumptions about the future of the format on any front yet. Retention of value for its staples can change just as radically as the fun factor if wotc decides to overhaul it because they want to change the direction of the format. If you think about it, people really like playing with powerful cards. To keep Modern from feeling like Legacy-lite, they kinda have to nip a lot of those fun cards. That is going to be an issue forever unless they can work something out. It probably is not worth getting upset over though. What might be an interesting use of brainpower would be for us to figure out a way to spice up Modern despite its Scylla and Charybdis. With the current setup, there is just no way wotc can seriously consider defunding Legacy no matter what happens to Modern. I think there is near universal opinion that it is the most fun of the constructed formats, so don't worry about it. Let's just ride along together and see what happens. It's a game.
Rereading that, I feel like I should say "smoke this" at the end.
Yeah, bolting yourself can be a big issue in that format, people like to play Bolt/Helix/Tribal Flames, plus affinity and RDW are always there. It doesn't always matter, but its something you have to think about. Two color in modern is just as viable as 5 color there. Wasteland would turn the format on its head though, because there are decks like tron that depend on colorless producing lands or manlands.
I always had the same feeling, amazing mana required an equally amazing answer. I kinda feel like blood moon and stifle are justified for the same reasons, the latter being to counter the power of fetchlands. If wasteland did not exist, legacy might have problems as a viable format, since there would be little reason not to splash any color you choose.
This is just my opinion of course.
Keeping this in mind, its worth noting that with the exception of fetchands, none of the original dual lands have yet climbed over 100% in value since the beginning of Modern. As for the fetchlands increasing in price, blame Modern Masters for not including Zendikar block. It's not a coincidence that the prices of the Zenidkar fetchlands doubledjust days after the announcement of Modern Masters. The irony is of course that Modern is in fact a "top down" format as LotP explains in the OP.
Legacy Burn
NO Combo Elves
Reanimator
Trades
Burn Primer
:symg:Free Gaea's Cradle:symg: