My first real commander deck is Radha. The reason why is to have a Turn 2 accelerant 100% as long as you have the correct colors, I'll get into that later, so that you can replace those 2 drop ramp cards with more impactful spells.
With that I have 15 ramp spells that give me 2 or more mana on Turn 3 with odds of 70%/82% (in hand to start the game/ hoping to draw into one by Turn3).
I am playing all the spells that can give me lands as I want to minimize the chance to be set back by having artifacts or creatures destroyed.
So my game plan is to go "2-4-6+" by turn 4. I play as many flash enablers as possible as it helps play around wraths, counters, gives Pseudo-haste and allows you to play tricks to would be attackers. My main goal is to get Archetype of Endurance in play first then Nyxbloom Ancient followed by Seedborn Muse or a flash enabler. Vigor and Apex Altisaur are high on the list and I want to live the dream of using Finale of devastation to find Pathbreaker Ibex and have all my creatures swing for at least +23/+23 and trample. Kogla, Titan Ape can return Eternal Witness and Druid of Purification to my hand.
Opening hand with 2 lands=80%, 3 lands by T3=78%. Turn 2 ramp =100%. Turn 3 ramp adding 2 or more mana on Turn 4 = 70/82% (in hand to start the game/ hoping to draw into one by Turn3).
Having or drawing a 6 or 7 drop by T4=81% plus 97% chance to have any combination of TWO cards at CMC 2-4*(have to recalculate)
Stats derived from: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
One minor hypothetical problem I have is the percentage of unfavorable outcomes to cast Radha on T2. 23% chance to get 2 lands that are either: double green, double red, double colorless or single red/green and colorless.
2xG=20%
2xCL=1%
2R=0% (rounded up)
1G1CL=41*19=8%
1R&1CL=13*19=3%
But favorable outcomes are:
Green & Red, Green & a Duel, Red & a Duel or both Duels.
In my opening hand the odds of having:
at least 1 of 14 Mono Green sources is 67%.
at least 1 of 2 Mono Red sources is 14%.
at least 1 of 17 Duel sources is 75%
at least 2 of 17 Duels sources is 34%
Having G&Red is 67%*14%=9%.
Having G&Duel is 67%*77%=52%.
Having Red&Duel is 14%*77%=11%.
Probability of at least 1 combination happening is: .67*.14*.75*34=.95(I feel like I messed up some where) https://www.calctool.org/CALC/math/probability/4_events
Please let me know your thoughts as I am a new Commander player. Any suggestions?
Maybe board
My first real commander deck is Radha. The reason why is to have a Turn 2 accelerant 100% as long as you have the correct colors, I'll get into that later, so that you can replace those 2 drop ramp cards with more impactful spells.
With that I have 15 ramp spells that give me 2 or more mana on Turn 3 with odds of 70%/82% (in hand to start the game/ hoping to draw into one by Turn3).
I am playing all the spells that can give me lands as I want to minimize the chance to be set back by having artifacts or creatures destroyed.
So my game plan is to go "2-4-6+" by turn 4. I play as many flash enablers as possible as it helps play around wraths, counters, gives Pseudo-haste and allows you to play tricks to would be attackers. My main goal is to get Archetype of Endurance in play first then Nyxbloom Ancient followed by Seedborn Muse or a flash enabler. Vigor and Apex Altisaur are high on the list and I want to live the dream of using Finale of devastation to find Pathbreaker Ibex and have all my creatures swing for at least +23/+23 and trample.
Kogla, Titan Ape can return Eternal Witness and Druid of Purification to my hand.
1x Bloodstained Mire
1x Windswept Heath
1x Wooded Foothills
1x Verdant Catacombs
1x Prismatic Vista
11x Forest
1x Mountain
1x Cinder Glade
1x Highland Forest
1x Sheltered Thicket
1x Stomping Ground
1x Command Tower
1x Forbidden Orchard - for Defense of the heart
1x Fire-Lit Thicket
1x Spire Garden
1x Mossfire Valley
1x Karplusan Forest
1x Raging Ravine
1x Rootbound Crag
1x Castle Garenbrig
1x Mosswort Bridge
1x Turntimber Symbiosis // Turntimber, Serpentine Wood
1x Shatterskull Smashing // Shatterskull, the Hammer Pass
1x Inkmoth Nexus
1x Kessig Wolf Run
1x Winding Canyons
Creatures - 14
1x Archetype of Endurance
1x Nyxbloom Ancient
1x Seedborn Muse
1x Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger
1x Vigor
1x Pathbreaker Ibex
1x Cavalier of Flame
1x Hellkite Charger
1x Savage Ventmaw
1x Regal Behemoth
1x Greenwarden of Murasa
1x Eternal Witness
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Ulvenwald Hydra
1x Finale of Devastation
1x Defense of the Heart
1x Tooth and Nail
1x Shared Summons
Draw Spells - 7
1x Beast Whisperer
1x Garruk's Packleader
1x The Great Henge
1x Return of the Wildspeaker
1x Elemental Bond
1x Garruk's Uprising
1x Guardian Project
Flash Cards - 5
1x Yeva, Nature's Herald
1x Vivien, Champion of the Wilds
1x Arlinn, the Pack's Hope // Arlinn, the Moon's Fury
1x Vedalken Orrery
1x Panglacial Wurm - pet card
Saviors - 5
1x Warping Wail - 8 sources to cast, testing
1x Constant Mists
1x Heroic Intervention
1x Temur Sabertooth
1x Wrap in Vigor
Ramp - 15
1x Tempt with Discovery
1x Skyshroud Claim
1x Ranger's Path
1x Verdant Mastery
1x Hunting Wilds
1x Vastwood Surge
1x Terramorph
1x Migration Path
1x Explosive Vegetation
1x Circuitous Route
1x Llanowar Tribe
1x Green Sun's Zenith
1x Sol Ring
1x Hedron Archive
1x Thran Dynamo
1x Vivien, Arkbow Ranger
1x Woodfall Primus
1x Thorn Mammoth
1x Apex Altisaur
1x Domri, Anarch of Bolas
1x Druid of Purification
1x Blasphemous Act
1x Chaos Warp
1x Beast Within
1x Kamahl's Will
1x Kogla, the Titan Ape
1x Volcanic Offering
1x Vivien Reid
5 artifacts
5 enchantments
10 instants
16 Sorcery
5 planeswalkers
24 creatures + 5 tutor spells and turntimber symbosis
36 lands including spell lands
Opening hand with 2 lands=80%, 3 lands by T3=78%. Turn 2 ramp =100%. Turn 3 ramp adding 2 or more mana on Turn 4 = 70/82% (in hand to start the game/ hoping to draw into one by Turn3).
Having or drawing a 6 or 7 drop by T4=81% plus 97% chance to have any combination of TWO cards at CMC 2-4*(have to recalculate)
Stats derived from: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
One minor hypothetical problem I have is the percentage of unfavorable outcomes to cast Radha on T2. 23% chance to get 2 lands that are either: double green, double red, double colorless or single red/green and colorless.
2xG=20%
2xCL=1%
2R=0% (rounded up)
1G1CL=41*19=8%
1R&1CL=13*19=3%
But favorable outcomes are:
Green & Red, Green & a Duel, Red & a Duel or both Duels.
In my opening hand the odds of having:
at least 1 of 14 Mono Green sources is 67%.
at least 1 of 2 Mono Red sources is 14%.
at least 1 of 17 Duel sources is 75%
at least 2 of 17 Duels sources is 34%
Having G&Red is 67%*14%=9%.
Having G&Duel is 67%*77%=52%.
Having Red&Duel is 14%*77%=11%.
Probability of at least 1 combination happening is: .67*.14*.75*34=.95(I feel like I messed up some where)
https://www.calctool.org/CALC/math/probability/4_events
Please let me know your thoughts as I am a new Commander player. Any suggestions?
Maybe board
1x Broken Wings
1x Asceticism
1x Act of Aggression
1x Burn Away
1x Chain Reaction
1x Clash of Titans
1x Deflecting Swat
1x Etali, Primal Storm
1x Fissure
1x Cinder Cloud
1x Ilharg, the Raze-Boar
1x Kenrith's Transformation
1x Kodama of the East Tree
1x Lignify
1x Patron of the Orochi
1x Ravager Wurm
1x Selvala, Heart of the Wilds
1x Song of the Dryads
1x Struggle // Survive
1x Tajuru Preserver
Props to DarkNightCavalier 4 da banner and SGT_Chubbz 4 avvie, here
Standard
GRAggro
GRWNaya Purphoros
GWAggro Retired 9/19/2014
RGPrimeval Titan RIP
1/5/2010 - 9/30/2011
Top 4 Channelfireball Winter series 5k Feb. 2011
3rd at California National Qualifiers 2011
40th at GP SLC 2012
Find me on MTGO @ Ruslvmusl91