Quote from Pokken »Remember that all of these metalworker hands also require having a grip of artifacts in your hand afterward. If any of those artifacts are rocks, now your t1 vault/crypt becomes vault/crypt/rock/PE. And then you need a fattie, or enough colored mana to cast your commander or some kind of outlet.
I would bet money that simulations would show PE generating more mana by turn 4 in more scenarios than Metalworker for an infinite card pool -- but how much different it is by 2/3/4 I'm not sure.
I do know that PE is the only one capable of a turn 1 win without Hall of the Bandit Lord there're many scenarios that result in t1 kills off of Paradox Engine with or without commanders. But Metalworker requiring haste drastically reduces those.
(I have seen several t1 functional kills with PE - usually some combination of vault/crypt/monoliths).
Edit: RE: Prophet
I think prophet went in more types of decks than PE, but it wasn't by like a huge margin. It being very cheap ($$) and multicolored meant it kinda went into any deck with a buncha ETB creatures and UG in the color profile.
PE is just a little spikier than Prophet, and a lot more $$, so I don't think we see it quite as much. But it is in a lot of decks and there are a ton of decks where it would be very good but is not played because of it being a hair spikier and more expensive than casuals typically jam.
I certainly think that PE is closer to Prophet on the scale of casual omnipresence than you're making it out to be. "ETB creatures" is not a much more common demographic than "artifact or mana dork decks." If at all.
Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare.
Quote from JWK »
About as often as I see Tabernacle or Chains of Mephistopheles or Moat or The Abyss or Gaea's Workshop or Nether Void or any number of other really old, powerful cards which are on the Banned list. Somewhat less frequently than I see Gaea's Cradle, wihch doesn't have to be built around as much to still be very good. So, not very often, but that isn't really the point.
Quote from Pokken »If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Quote from Pokken »Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare.
Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck
In a deck tuned highly to work around it PE will absolutely make more mana faster than metalworker. We're talking scenarios where MW might make 4, 6, 8 mana on turn 2/3 sometimes, but PE will make infinite or virtually infinite on turn 2/3/4 with some regularity.
I think part of the issue is we're trying to talk about two things at once. Problematic casual omnipresence confuses things because there're a lot of decks playing PE that it's not optimized for--it's just good.
If you look at Metalworker decks, not everybody runs 60 artifacts in a metalworker deck - because just to have 3-4 artifacts in hand *after ramping* that's the ratio you're talking about (since 1 ramp spell + 4 artifacts + metalworker is 6 artifacts, that means 6/9 cards were artifacts). I have seen MW decks have crappy draws where it's a dud. This happens.
Let's dial it back and talk specifically about Too Much Mana Too Quickly OR Problematic Casual Omnipresence, not both at the same time.
Too Much Mana Too Quickly
In its optimized state PE will generate near-infinite mana by turn 4 with a high degree of consistency. I've seen this in practice; my buddy's Sen Triplets deck is maybe an 85% deck with something like 20 rocks. I've seen him go off on turn 3 very often. All it takes is a combination of rocks that happens more often than you think.
But that's anecdotal really just like all the metalworker discussion.
Can we try to imagine what the bar is for too much mana too quickly? I'm having a hard time imagining it in the scenarios where it is highly situational (as it is with PE and Metalworker).
Fastbond - with 3-4 lands, you will consistently hit 3 (+2) mana avail turn 1 and 4 (+2) mana turn 2. That's on par with Mana Crypt and Sol Ring, so nothing really crazy except how it scales in the late game, and combos.
Channel - Turn 1 or turn 2 access to >30 mana
Tolarian Academy - I dunno, like +1 mana turn 1, +3 turn 2 typical? (With a much higher ceiling and floor, and mid game implications)
Metalworker and Paradox Engine are so much more situational i think it's tough to figure out consistently what they do.
The way *I* view it is
Metalworker - low likelihood of +4 mana on turn 2, moderate likelihood of +4-6 mana turn 3, high likelihood of +4-8 on turn 4
Paradox Engine - tiny likelihood of 4+ on turn 1, very low likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 2, low-moderate likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 3, moderate-high likelihood of +10 mana on turn 4, very high likelihood of infinite on turn 5
So PE and MW are both quite a lot slower than the other offenders, with PE being typically slower but more explosive.
The difficulty is in classifying the likelihood of these scenarios and what rules you use to determine those.
If you use the rules of a Casual Deck, you have to go back and think about Tolarian Academy and Fastbond some, because TA is a pretty medium card in a truly casual build, and Fastbond is often not much better than Burgeoning in lower powered decks.
So we need to decide how tuned of a deck we're using to think about this, and that makes it very complicated.
IMHO, way more complicated than you're making it out to be.
Quote from Cainsson »20 mana rocks IS a lot. cEDH Teferi runs 13-15 and is the rampiest deck when it comes to rocks. Sharuum, an eggs deck, runs 18. And Nin, the only artifact combo deck that's remained competitive, runs 16. Both artifact decks get their OP bursts from KCI, and Nin combos with Staff of Domination because PE is too clunky. Nin also runs Metalworker.
You really overestimate PE's power, prevalence and popularity. It's a Sisay, Selvala and Jhoira card, maybe playable in Vannifar. The first two were already taking 10 minute turns before PE was printed, all it does is make sure they win once they have their engine rolling, and Jhoira wins pretty fast with it because Jhoira+Gilded Lotus+PE pretty much reads "draw your deck" unless you stumble on a very thick land pocket.
It's an excellent card, in very particular cases can be opressive, played by bad combo players it's a durdling dud. I agree with all of that, but the more we debate it the more I believe it's not nearly as powerful, potentially prevalent or problematic as PoK was.
Quote from Pokken »Eh, 20 rocks is not really that many in an artifacty deck, I've seen more mana sources for sure.
I would agree that the reason metalworker got unbanned is that it's 1) fairly spikey, 2) fairly narrow, but I think you're taking my point backwards. That has nothing to do with the "too much mana too quickly" argument - metalworker survives because it doesn't really hit any other banlist criteria (while PE perhaps does?). You keep jumping from argument to argument about casual omnipresence vs. mana vs. how spikey the deck is etc etc. Let's get focused.
There are multiple hurdles to clear to get banned; too much mana too fast isn't an auto ban. Obviously otherwise Mana Crypt (which is arguably stronger than Fastbond) would be banned. Fastbond and TA get got because of other reasons (can get into that in another post if desired but I think I see the reasoning there).
What I'm trying to establish is, on the "too much mana too quickly" front that PE is close to Metalworker. Your arguments seem to assume a tuned Metalworker deck and an untuned PE deck, and in that vein I think you are overstating the case for how much more mana Metalworker makes than PE.
* Would it help if I tried to list starting hands that generate critical mana turn 3 with PE vs. Metalworker?
* Where on the spectrum do you think PE is for too much mana too quickly if MW is 7, Fastbond/Crypt 8, TA 9, Channel 10? Or do you disagree with those ballpark numbers?
Quote from Taleran »Yeah I play against someone playing a Dimir PE deck that runs I think every mana rock possible almost that is 3 mana or less
Quote from Pokken »I have looked at tons of decks on Edhrec, looked at my friends decks, etc. I regularly see counts in excess of 15. Usually less CEDH decks that want to mulligan less aggressively. It doesn't really matter much; it slightly increases the T1 and T2 chance to play tons of rocks, but the chance is there regardless.
Quote from Pokken »I'm not looking at average decklists I'm looking at pretty good ones with paradox engine in them. Lots of medium decks without paradox engine run fewer. Most strong PE decks are running >12 and sometimes more.
sharuum https://edhrec.com/deckpreview/07/ff/08650ad3 (~15 rocks/dorks)
Sisay - https://edhrec.com/deckpreview/5f/dd/d164efeb (18+ rocks/dorks)
sen triplets (my buddy's list): https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1650724#paper - 18 rocks not counting trinket mage but counting voltaic key
jhoira (https://edhrec.com/deckpreview/ea/f7/ca67227b) with 16ish
It seems like "20+" is a tiny bit of hyperbole I was just operating from memory but running every broken rock plus all the signets is at the very least pretty common And Enlightened Tutor + Vampiric Tutor tend to make it functionally +2 if needed.
Basically every PE deck runs enough to see 2 ramp spells within the first 10 cards at a high rate:
12 ~ 35%
15 ~ 46%
18 ~ 57%
Gonna try a little more rigorous math assessment to compare MW + PW just for funzies--
Metalworker math for fun-
t1 ramp spell OR grim monolith - 0.444
metalworker or 1 of ET/VT - 0.229
~ 0.102, 10.2%
--Note, this drops of precipitously if you start trying to factor in having 3+ other artifacts for a crazy turn.
Assuming you have:
40 artifacts in deck, and you have seen metalworker + ramp spell already, that means you have 38 left
With 38 artifacts, 97 cards in deck, and 8 cards to see your odds of 3+ of those being artifacts is 67%, so if I'm doing that right it means that your odds of an explosive Metalworker turn are somewhere in the vicinity of:
But I'm not sure I did that one right!
More refined paradox engine math with carified assumptions;
-Going off requires 6 mana by turn 3 + paradox engine
-achieving 6 mana by turn 3 requires, with some simplification:
mana vault = (0.08)
grim monolith = (0.08)
mana crypt or sol ring (0.155) + 2 CMC rock or worn powerstone or thran dynamo (assuming 6, 0.4) = (0.062)
ancient tomb (.08) + worn powerstone (.08) = (.0064)
mox diamond or chrome mox (.155) + worn Powerstone (.08) = (0.0124)
MISC - any 3 specific cards, e.g. (mox opal + mox Diamond + chrome mox) = .00512, let's assume there are 5 combinations like this at minimum, so: ( .00256)
~ 0.24, not counting any things i didn't think of
+ odds of having paradox engine (or vamp or ET) - .229
total - ~prob 0.055 (5.5%)
Feel free to correct my math I'm not an expert, but feels pretty close.
My guess is overall PE likelihood of an explosive PE turn is probably around 6% by turn 3 with a reasonably tuned deck.
Comparing to Metalworker's odds, that's not really that far off I don't think. They're both in the same rough scope assuming I didn't screw something up that makes it an order of magnitude off (<10%).
Obviously I didn't correct for stuff like not having enough lands or metalworker missing on artifacts etc, but I think it's order of magnitude close
Quote from MRHblue »Wait are we talking about PE, or Metalworker. You said we should focus, but that seems a split issue.
Quote from Pokken »I'm using the more competitive decks simply to illustrate the too much mana too fast argument, since I used the same quality of deck to compare metalworker (playing all the good rocks). I don't think you can discuss the "too much mana too fast" through the lens of "problematic casual omnipresence" --
That is, you cannot assume that the "too much mana" criteria must be "too much mana in the average deck."
So that's what I mean by you moving the goalpost - you seem to be saying that in order for PE to produce too much mana too quickly it must do so in a medium deck instead of a strongly tailored deck. The numbers seem to show that in a strong deck that MW and PE are fairly close in terms of busted mana production.
Quote from Pokken »And you're assigning a conclusion that I never even discussed. Metalworker is just a good example we can reasonably compare for mana explosiveness.
It being unbanned but previously banned is both an argument for and against PE--against because PE is equally or less mana explosive, but for because PE is far more problematic in other ways than Metalworker, but almost as explosive.
All I'm trying to do is establish a TMM2Q score which I think I have, somewhere around 4 to 5/10 - similar to metalworker but not as bad as mana vault or sol ring. Probably in the vicinity of grim monolith as well.
PE TMM2Q score: 5/10 (hell, I could be convinced on 4.5/10 I guess, but it's definitely up there)
If we all agree on that or at least close enough for government work, which do you want me to hit next? Or if you don't care I'm fine to let it rest
The other two items I think PE hits on at least some level:
* Creates undesirable game states
* Problematic casual omnipresence
Quote from Sheldon »You're the reason we can't have nice things.