I think you might be overstating the requirement for problematic casual omnipresence; Sylvan Primordial and Prophet of Kruphix probably both hit that criteria a little and it's doubtful either one saw more play than PE - maybe primordial.
Prevalence is obviously important, but it's not enough on its own to rule something in or out. I think the jury is really out on what a 'problematic' level of prevalence is as well so not sure how we can take the EDHREC numbers as either opening or closing the door on that.
The last philosophy document I read said:
Problematic Casual Omnipresence. Some cards are so powerful that they become must-includes in decks that can run them and have a strongly negative impact on the games in which they appear, even when not built to optimize their effect. This does not include cards which are part of a specific two-card combination — there are too many of those available in the format to usefully preclude — but may include cards which have numerous combinations with other commonly-played cards.
I think PE is really close on a lot of those points. I'd say it's fuzzy when you start thinking about "decks that can run them" and what that means, but I would say there is a very broad set of decks that want a paradox engine. If you break down these points:
* Must-include in decks that can run them - Arguable since any deck can play an artifact - but a large variety of decks want it
* Strongly negative impact on the game even when not built to optimize - Check
* Have numerous combinations with other commonly played cards - Check
It's more than the problematic game states; the card has become the de facto combo enabler for literally every artifact ramp deck, which is a substantial portion of the format, as well as for most mana dork heavy decks (which is another good chunk of the format, although less so).
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If you go through all of the criteria PE hits basically every one of them as at least potential.
* Interacts poorly with the structure of commander -- Somewhat, though maybe 5/10 (in the same way POK did but without flash, I consider POK a 7/10
* Creates undesirable game states -- Check, 8/10
* Problematic casual omnipresence - Check, 7/10 (it hits a lot of the boxes but one is arguable)
* Produces too much mana too quickly - Check, 9/10 - often enabling virtually infinite mana as early as turn 3 or 4 in combination with any number of mana rocks or dorks
* Barrier to Entry - 0/10
I think you might be overstating the requirement for problematic casual omnipresence; Sylvan Primordial and Prophet of Kruphix probably both hit that criteria a little and it's doubtful either one saw more play than PE - maybe primordial.
Prevalence is obviously important, but it's not enough on its own to rule something in or out. I think the jury is really out on what a 'problematic' level of prevalence is as well so not sure how we can take the EDHREC numbers as either opening or closing the door on that.
The last philosophy document I read said:
Problematic Casual Omnipresence. Some cards are so powerful that they become must-includes in decks that can run them and have a strongly negative impact on the games in which they appear, even when not built to optimize their effect. This does not include cards which are part of a specific two-card combination — there are too many of those available in the format to usefully preclude — but may include cards which have numerous combinations with other commonly-played cards.
I think PE is really close on a lot of those points. I'd say it's fuzzy when you start thinking about "decks that can run them" and what that means, but I would say there is a very broad set of decks that want a paradox engine. If you break down these points:
* Must-include in decks that can run them - Arguable since any deck can play an artifact - but a large variety of decks want it
* Strongly negative impact on the game even when not built to optimize - Check
* Have numerous combinations with other commonly played cards - Check
It's more than the problematic game states; the card has become the de facto combo enabler for literally every artifact ramp deck, which is a substantial portion of the format, as well as for most mana dork heavy decks (which is another good chunk of the format, although less so).
----------------------------------------------
If you go through all of the criteria PE hits basically every one of them as at least potential.
* Interacts poorly with the structure of commander -- Somewhat, though maybe 5/10 (in the same way POK did but without flash, I consider POK a 7/10
* Creates undesirable game states -- Check, 8/10
* Problematic casual omnipresence - Check, 7/10 (it hits a lot of the boxes but one is arguable)
* Produces too much mana too quickly - Check, 9/10 - often enabling virtually infinite mana as early as turn 3 or 4 in combination with any number of mana rocks or dorks
* Barrier to Entry - 0/10
It doesn't interact poorly with the format at all. Anything problematic it does in edh it does exactly the same in any other format. No rule specific to commander or multiplayer benefits it in any way.
Creates negative game states is say is sitting at more of a 6/10. Winning via combo does not count, so you have to discount any situation where it quickly wins as a combo piece as the RC simply does not count that as inherently problematic (for good reason, as they'd have to ban numerous cards if they did). That leaves situations where PE resolves and lasts but doesn't quickly win, which is often problematic as it leads to durdling and time wasting, but not always (sometimes it just works as a way to get some extra value).
Too much Mana too quickly: not at all. It costs 5 Mana and requires other cards to work. This category is really reserved for truly busted ***** like Channel that do it turn 2-3 without any help. If you are getting infinite Mana off of this turn 4, congrats, but you could have done this with a number of other cards. At this point, it's just a combo, not an issue particular to the card, and therefore irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, it starts doing its thing too late in the game to be considered to quickly, regardless of the prodigious amount of Mana it produces.
That leaves problematic casual omnipresence. The problematic part has nothing to do with the degree of omnipresence, but only whether being omnipresent is causing problems. Island is omnipresent, but not problematic. This means that there are two, separate conditions to be met for this criteria: it both has to be everywhere, a card that is an auto include and played in every deck that can add it, AND it has to cause problems whenever it's played. A problematic card that doesn't get banned for violating other categories gets banned if it's everywhere. If it isn't, if isn't getting played in most decks that can play it and hitting every game it isn't a big enough issue to ban. If a card is played everywhere and an auto include, but doesn't cause problems when it's played, it doesn't get banned. PE is not played everywhere. It's a colorless permanent and it isn't played as much as 2 color Prophet was when fewer people played the game. It is by any definition not an auto include. It does combo with numerous commonly played cards, but if you just slap it in a deck with a normal amount of artifact ramp, say 3 signets, vault, crypt, grim mono, Sol ring, and let's say 2 more of you choice, that's not enough to ensure you are getting real value from it. You may have one out, maybe two. Ok, that's a great amount of Mana, but you don't have a way to keep the cards flowing to keep the untaps coming, and you don't have a way to go infinite. You actually have to build around this card. If by artifact ramp deck you mean any deck that runs the common artifact ramp, then no, it's not an auto include there and doesn't cause problems if ran there. If you mean an artifact deck that leans heavily on ramp, thats a more narrow archetype. A colorless artifact that is and auto include in just a specific archetype is not omnipresent enough to hit this category. It can go in any deck, but it doesn't. Instead, it's only going nuts in decks built to take advantage of it, either with commanders built around tap effects or with already busted artifact decks. I'd, at best, rate this a 5/10, but I think it's more like 3/10.
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I would argue that Prophet interacted poorly because you effectively got 1+X turns, where X was the number of opponents. The more opponents you faced, the more turns you got compared to theirs. Of course, this logic is flawed because that also meant that you had to have a deck more prepared to make use of thaose turns as well as protect her. Speaking only for my own experiences, she was most often the correct choice to Clone or Bribery, and games did turn into a minigame of Kill The Prophet before the regular game could resume.
Re: OneRing
I disagree with a lot of your other analysis, at least in scope, but it's well thought out and presented. Most of the disagreement I think is matters of taste for me.
An item I wanted to pluck out was:
When saying something like "requires other cards to work" while strictly speaking that is true, that is much different with PE than with say, Rings of Brighthearth.
Rings requires monolith to go infinite (pretty much) - PE just requires a critical mass of mana rocks or creatures which is a much more generic set of requirements, given that the decks playing PE were all playing those before it's not really as much of a deckbuilding consequence as needing to play bad cards to facilitate.
We had this same line of discussion in I believe the Torment thread, but I stand by my reasoning there:
Combos with almost all ramp cards is significantly different from Combos with a few crappy cards.
Yeah, it requires other cards, but they're all in the deck in large amounts and we're mulliganning for them, so it's not the same as narrower cards.
I would argue that Prophet interacted poorly because you effectively got 1+X turns, where X was the number of opponents. The more opponents you faced, the more turns you got compared to theirs. Of course, this logic is flawed because that also meant that you had to have a deck more prepared to make use of thaose turns as well as protect her. Speaking only for my own experiences, she was most often the correct choice to Clone or Bribery, and games did turn into a minigame of Kill The Prophet before the regular game could resume.
Yeah, I'm not sure on the interacts badly with the format action-economy wise thing. I could be just thinking about that wrong since it's equally punishing in a single player match where the user can use their reactive spells and abilities multiple times.
I've seen a few scenarios where PE player was able to defend themselves from multiple players by using reactive spells to untap stuff, but the only way in which having multiple players impacts that is by having multiple people to react to.
In one game I recall a PE player doing a seedborn muse impression by countering two spells, removing another's creature, and using the advantage from the multiple activations of all their stuff off of the counterspells and removal to win on their untap.
It's pretty narrow though I guess, so probably not that big of a deal.
That said, I do think that messing with the action economy is itself a form of interacting poorly with the format in and of itself -- Durdling has a much bigger impact in untimed multiplayer games (3 people's time is wasted vs. 1's with a time limit). But that's probably a pretty narrow interpretation on my part as well.
I'll change my opinion to "interacts poorly with the format" to more like a 2/10 or so.
Too much Mana too quickly: not at all. It costs 5 Mana and requires other cards to work. This category is really reserved for truly busted ***** like Channel that do it turn 2-3 without any help. If you are getting infinite Mana off of this turn 4, congrats, but you could have done this with a number of other cards. At this point, it's just a combo, not an issue particular to the card, and therefore irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, it starts doing its thing too late in the game to be considered to quickly, regardless of the prodigious amount of Mana it produces.
I don't know about this man. Rofellos is on there for 'too much mana too quickly' and he requires you to play a lot of basic forests. Admittedly he's in the command zone, but PE is going to make more mana than Rofellos on turn 3 or 4 most of the time in decks optimized to play it. Hell, Rofellos would play it.
Other cards on the list for too much mana too quickly (at one point)
* Metalworker, which is significantly slower than PE (or at least as dependent, and arguably slower, certainly more narrow)
* Fastbond, which is not really appreciably faster at ramping than PE, though certainly more consistent
* Tolarian Academy, which is...faster than PE but how much? Is it on a completely different planet in turn 3 mana production? I'd need to think about this a lot to see the lines of play.
Obviously PE is weaker than fastbond or Tolarian Academy, but it's certainly arguable that it's in a similar class to Metalworker (who obviously got unbanned, and has some similar combo potential) -- but if Metalworker was at one point banned, PE is probably not a 0/10.
(sorry for the additional post, not intending to spam I just realized my post was getting quite cluttered and wanted to address another point)
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
It was definitely my most broken game with Prophey, but I was running a Wizard tribal deck that also ran clones, and I was able to Archenemy three players trying to kill Prophet by flashing in a clone in response to kill spells, have open mana for counters, and eventually flashing in clones to go infinite in response to someone attempting to go infinite with Deadeye/Palinchron and then use that mana to Blue Sun the table. This was obviously years ago so I'm sketchy on the exact details, but that's the gist of it. She was absolutely centralizing in that game just like Prime Time was.
I saw people swap commanders to play PoK. I'm not seeing people turn their creature decks into artifact decks to play PE.
Panharmonicon had more of an impact IME, people who didn't use to run creatures now pack Mulldrifter, Cloublazer, et al. to exploit Panharmonicon and I have seen Panharmonicon be targeted by Copy Artifact and Phyrexian Metamorph unlike PE.
Anecdotal, but everything in this discussion is. Again I play on MTGO and paper so I see hundreds more decks a month than I would if I only played at my LGS, and decks tend to be less janky because staples are cheap i.e. PE itself is $0.80
Personally, I still think Metalworker should have stayed banned. Just too darn good, really.
How much do you actually see it?
About as often as I see Tabernacle or Chains of Mephistopheles or Moat or The Abyss or Gaea's Workshop or Nether Void or any number of other really old, powerful cards which are on the Banned list. Somewhat less frequently than I see Gaea's Cradle, wihch doesn't have to be built around as much to still be very good. So, not very often, but that isn't really the point.
Metalworker is an old and rare enough card that I don't view it as a threat to the format or anything, but I don't think it brings anything good to the format either, and if it was more accessible, I do think it would be actively bad for the format. Whenever I do see it, it always has a huge impact on the game, and not in a positive way. I believe it produces too much mana too early, which is after all one of the banned list criteria.
Too much Mana too quickly: not at all. It costs 5 Mana and requires other cards to work. This category is really reserved for truly busted ***** like Channel that do it turn 2-3 without any help. If you are getting infinite Mana off of this turn 4, congrats, but you could have done this with a number of other cards. At this point, it's just a combo, not an issue particular to the card, and therefore irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, it starts doing its thing too late in the game to be considered to quickly, regardless of the prodigious amount of Mana it produces.
I don't know about this man. Rofellos is on there for 'too much mana too quickly' and he requires you to play a lot of basic forests. Admittedly he's in the command zone, but PE is going to make more mana than Rofellos on turn 3 or 4 most of the time in decks optimized to play it. Hell, Rofellos would play it.
Other cards on the list for too much mana too quickly (at one point)
* Metalworker, which is significantly slower than PE (or at least as dependent, and arguably slower, certainly more narrow)
* Fastbond, which is not really appreciably faster at ramping than PE, though certainly more consistent
* Tolarian Academy, which is...faster than PE but how much? Is it on a completely different planet in turn 3 mana production? I'd need to think about this a lot to see the lines of play.
Obviously PE is weaker than fastbond or Tolarian Academy, but it's certainly arguable that it's in a similar class to Metalworker (who obviously got unbanned, and has some similar combo potential) -- but if Metalworker was at one point banned, PE is probably not a 0/10.
(sorry for the additional post, not intending to spam I just realized my post was getting quite cluttered and wanted to address another point)
Metal Worker was banned because it could generate ridiculous mana turn 3 off of just one rock. What it can do turn 5 is irrelevant, its what it could do turn 2-3 that was absurd, and what it could do on those turns was easily tap for 10 mana. That is too much too fast. What does PE do turn 3? What does it do turn 4 without a god hand? You need multiple rocks down at that point to be getting value from it that fast. The RC doesn't look at just the god hands to evaluate what a card is doing, but most hands. PE needs some pretty great hands to get out of hand that early. MW needs to be in an artifact deck to start ramping you ten by turn 4, and 1 rock makes that turn 3 (or 2 if its vault). That's a much lower ceiling to be effective, and a much better example of too much mana too fast. That MW got unbanned further shows what is required to get banned for this (I'd wager that requiring a dedicated deck and being significantly worse late made them decide it was ok, despite it hitting this category so hard, while Tolarian Academy is just absurd from the start and gets better as the game goes on). Rofellos is only banned because its legendary and thus sits in the command zone. When banned as a commander existed, he was legal in the 99. Legendaries have a lower bar to clear to be banned because they are always accessible. If we look at Rofellos and PE as equivalent, it would make sense that PE isn't banned, as it cannot be used as a commander. Fastbond ramps faster than PE, because it starts going nuts turn 1, but it has a lower ceiling. Building around it to the extent of building around PE (running more cards that fetch lots of land to your hand, or just more draw) makes up for that. The reason I expect Fastbond to remain banned but would be mildly surprised to see PE eat a ban is that Fastbond can slot into literally any green deck and make it immediately better, without requiring any changes (unlike PE, which with a normal amount of artifact ramp isn't going to see enough tap effects consistently to reach its potential, and is more likely to be a dead card). Its a $5 card (though I expect it would spike, probably quintuple in price at least, because right now its only legal in vintage), it would get played heavily.
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Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Metal Worker was banned because it could generate ridiculous mana turn 3 off of just one rock. What it can do turn 5 is irrelevant, its what it could do turn 2-3 that was absurd, and what it could do on those turns was easily tap for 10 mana. That is too much too fast. What does PE do turn 3? What does it do turn 4 without a god hand? You need multiple rocks down at that point to be getting value from it that fast. The RC doesn't look at just the god hands to evaluate what a card is doing, but most hands. PE needs some pretty great hands to get out of hand that early. MW needs to be in an artifact deck to start ramping you ten by turn 4, and 1 rock makes that turn 3 (or 2 if its vault). That's a much lower ceiling to be effective, and a much better example of too much mana too fast. That MW got unbanned further shows what is required to get banned for this (I'd wager that requiring a dedicated deck and being significantly worse late made them decide it was ok, despite it hitting this category so hard, while Tolarian Academy is just absurd from the start and gets better as the game goes on).
Bend with me here a little and agree that pe is on the spectrum of metalworker. and maybe closer to tolarian academy than academy is to channel (which was your previous argument, that too much mana is insane stuff like channel).
I've seen PE generate critical mana on turn 3 in both dork and artifact decks many times. Way more than metalworker because worker requires untapping and creature removal is way easier than artifact.
It requires the same thing to have a busted start - a turn one ramp spell - but pe can be dorks or artifacts. And mw requires artifacts in hand and a t1 ramp spell, where as pe requires two or three ramps.
They are certainly not so far apart as to be beyond compare and making it out otherwise is pretty unfair in my opinion.
I dunno about charting opening hands but I've seen a pretty huge variety of PE hands ranging from busted with t1 multiple rocks to just pretty strong with t4 or t5 explosive hands generating critical amounts of mana.
After comparing to the existing list, I'm going to revise my score on too much mana too quickly (assuming this is some kinda logarithmic scale since Channel is quite a bit more busted than the rest I think).
* Channel is a 10
* Tolarian Academy is 9
* Fastbond is 8
* Metalworker is 7
I think PE is 7/10 just on that raw scale, roughly comparable with Metalworker, though it's really hard to separate some of the other quirks in my head. They both have significant deckbuilding consequences and require other cards to get there, but they both have a huge variety of starts that get there.
PE can easily generate way more than metalworker, but Metalworker takes a little less setup. So it's kinda iffy to me.
And it's way worse in those decks because dorks tend to have summoning sickness and therefore can't develop an incremental mana engine in a single turn like artifacts can.
PE is nowhere near as good as Metalworker. Metalworker drops Ulamog or Ugin turn 2. PE usually does well turn 4-6 with notable build up, at that point other players should be capable of fighting it.
It's nowhere near the same magnitude of power as Fastbond or Metalworker. It's more in line with Altar/Deathmantle and Monolith/Rings.
And it's way worse in those decks because dorks tend to have summoning sickness and therefore can't develop an incremental mana engine in a single turn like artifacts can.
PE is nowhere near as good as Metalworker. Metalworker drops Ulamog or Ugin turn 2. PE usually does well turn 4-6 with notable build up, at that point other players should be capable of fighting it.
It's nowhere near the same magnitude of power as Fastbond or Metalworker. It's more in line with Altar/Deathmantle and Monolith/Rings.
Mana dorks are possibly more effective (in some ways, and consistent anyway) than rocks because they are easier to sequence (there are more dorks so getting turn 1 ramp is much easier). Your assessment doesn't jive with how PE is played in my experience. The PE dork decks often play some of the better rocks too but they don't need to play as many bad ones like worn powerstone.
There are also lots of generically powerful commanders and cards that interact positively with creatures + PE -- cards like Glimpse, Lifecrafter's Bestiary, Beast Whisperer, etc.
Edit: If you look at decks that play PE, it's a who's who of artifact and mana dork commanders; for every Breya there's a Sisay, for every Arcum there's a Selvala.
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Please tell me a sequence where you untap t2 with Metalworker that does not also bust the game if you do it with Paradox engine. I'm very interested. Hands that generate 3 mana on turn 1 and then have enough artifacts to tap Metalworker for 6+ are pretty few and far between.
My thought exercises suggested that any explosive ramp turn that generates a t1 metalworker is just as likely to go ape with a paradox engine.
T2 metalworker also requires t1 ramp (chrome mox, sol ring, mana crypt, mox diamond, etc.).
If you change your statement to "explosive turn 3" from "t2 10 mana" I'd buy it more. The way you phrased it sounds like not well thought out rhetoric to me.
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Edit: realized I didn't address the Rings statement, but...
Rings only combos infinitely with a couple things (stuff like wirewood lodge, deserted temple, monolith, etc.), and doesn't generate much mana in other ways that aren't infinite.
I don't think Rings is anywhere near comparable to PE, because PE synergizes so strongly with so many things whereas Rings is just kinda good with a few things and then goes infinite with a handful.
PE goes infinite in about a hundred different ways and functionally infinite in numerous others - generating enough mana to run yourself out of cards with just a few rocks or dorks in most cases. Assuming you run out of cards.
Rings is one of the examples I used earlier to explain how narrow combos that generate a lot of mana are not as big an issue as broad interactions that synergize with lots of cards.
And additionally an interesting thing is that many decks have stopped running Rings in favor of running PE, because it's way more efficient at doing the same thing (and generates colored mana more easily). You'll see PE sees a bit more play than Rings even, despite Rings being around forever
I would argue that Prophet interacted poorly because you effectively got 1+X turns, where X was the number of opponents. The more opponents you faced, the more turns you got compared to theirs. Of course, this logic is flawed because that also meant that you had to have a deck more prepared to make use of thaose turns as well as protect her. Speaking only for my own experiences, she was most often the correct choice to Clone or Bribery, and games did turn into a minigame of Kill The Prophet before the regular game could resume.
Prophet did, I agree
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Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
And it's way worse in those decks because dorks tend to have summoning sickness and therefore can't develop an incremental mana engine in a single turn like artifacts can.
PE is nowhere near as good as Metalworker. Metalworker drops Ulamog or Ugin turn 2. PE usually does well turn 4-6 with notable build up, at that point other players should be capable of fighting it.
It's nowhere near the same magnitude of power as Fastbond or Metalworker. It's more in line with Altar/Deathmantle and Monolith/Rings.
Mana dorks are possibly more effective (in some ways, and consistent anyway) than rocks because they are easier to sequence (there are more dorks so getting turn 1 ramp is much easier). Your assessment doesn't jive with how PE is played in my experience. The PE dork decks often play some of the better rocks too but they don't need to play as many bad ones like worn powerstone.
There are also lots of generically powerful commanders and cards that interact positively with creatures + PE -- cards like Glimpse, Lifecrafter's Bestiary, Beast Whisperer, etc.
Edit: If you look at decks that play PE, it's a who's who of artifact and mana dork commanders; for every Breya there's a Sisay, for every Arcum there's a Selvala.
-----------------------------
Please tell me a sequence where you untap t2 with Metalworker that does not also bust the game if you do it with Paradox engine. I'm very interested. Hands that generate 3 mana on turn 1 and then have enough artifacts to tap Metalworker for 6+ are pretty few and far between.
My thought exercises suggested that any explosive ramp turn that generates a t1 metalworker is just as likely to go ape with a paradox engine.
T2 metalworker also requires t1 ramp (chrome mox, sol ring, mana crypt, mox diamond, etc.).
If you change your statement to "explosive turn 3" from "t2 10 mana" I'd buy it more. The way you phrased it sounds like not well thought out rhetoric to me.
Land, vault metalworker, untap, or Mana crypt instead of vault would be even stronger. I can't show you the same so easily for PE, that's the point. You'd need to get both vault AND crypt turn 1 with PE in hand, which is venturing into magical Christmasland, while merely getting one rock is realistic. You need a god hand to go ape with PE that early, but you only need a good hand to do the same with metalworker. It's a major difference. With just vault, you aren't casting PE until turn 3, and untapping with it turn 4 (and needing something to cast for 2 Mana because vault is tapped). With crypt, you wait to cast it until turn 4. Waiting two turns that early in the game in the same situation is huge, and puts them in two different ball parks. Then you change things up and say Sol ring instead, metalworker hits turn 2 and untaps turn 3, PE is still waiting to be cast. You have a pretty realistic though uncommon chance of getting two cards you need in your opening hand, while getting 3+ is extremely rare. Meanwhile, making 10 with metalworker is normal. You have 8 cards in your hand turn 1, you play 3, then draw 1 turn 2, six cards in hand. You play metalworker in artifact decks, so it's realistic to have 5/6 be artifacts. Even if 4/6 are, your still churning out 8 Mana turn 2. Heck, even if only half hour cards in hand are artifacts, that's still 6 Mana off the metalworker. You have another from your land, then depending on how you got there even more (maybe you had crypt instead, or ancient tomb). You have many more combinations that lead to a turn 1 metalworker than you have for a turn 1 PE, and they leave more cards in hand. You probably have at least as many as you do for a turn 2 PE. Workshop gets you there on its own. Ancient tomb plus any rock does as well.
The rest of your post doesn't really help your case, you are describing decks that are built around PE, either because they have commanders that take advantage of it by tapping or they add a higher number than average of Mana dorks and rocks. Most decks do not run high numbers of Mana dorks. We're getting into a situation again where you cannot just slot the card into any deck that can run it, which is every deck since it's colorless, or even nearly any deck that can, and expect it to perform. You either have to have it be a deck that already wants that effect, or you have to start adding more rocks, dorks, and tap effects to get a critical mass to ensure that PE always performs when you draw it. Cards that actually hit problematic omnipresence did not need these considerations. Prime Time just went in every green deck, because every deck could use a fatty that tutored lands into play. Prophet went in nearly every U/G deck, because nearly every U/G deck ran creatures, and even many that didn't run enough creatures still got plenty of use out of untapping everything every turn to make it still worth it. Sylvan was solid removal attached to ramp and stapled to a big body. Those we're all things that where universally useful. PE needs a bit more help to get there, which is why it doesn't get ran as much despite being colorless and thus having more decks that it can legally be put into. You see a lot of it in your playgroup, others don't, and I rarely see it online. I only expect to see it in decks like the ones you mentioned, and honestly I'm already expecting those decks to do degenerate things anyway whether they have PE or not. They are already kill on sight.
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Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Remember that all of these metalworker hands also require having a grip of artifacts in your hand afterward. If any of those artifacts are rocks, now your t1 vault/crypt becomes vault/crypt/rock/PE. And then you need a fattie, or enough colored mana to cast your commander or some kind of outlet.
I would bet money that simulations would show PE generating more mana by turn 4 in more scenarios than Metalworker for an infinite card pool -- but how much different it is by 2/3/4 I'm not sure.
I do know that PE is the only one capable of a turn 1 win without Hall of the Bandit Lord there're many scenarios that result in t1 kills off of Paradox Engine with or without commanders. But Metalworker requiring haste drastically reduces those.
(I have seen several t1 functional kills with PE - usually some combination of vault/crypt/monoliths).
Edit: RE: Prophet
I think prophet went in more types of decks than PE, but it wasn't by like a huge margin. It being very cheap ($$) and multicolored meant it kinda went into any deck with a buncha ETB creatures and UG in the color profile.
PE is just a little spikier than Prophet, and a lot more $$, so I don't think we see it quite as much. But it is in a lot of decks and there are a ton of decks where it would be very good but is not played because of it being a hair spikier and more expensive than casuals typically jam.
I certainly think that PE is closer to Prophet on the scale of casual omnipresence than you're making it out to be. "ETB creatures" is not a much more common demographic than "artifact or mana dork decks." If at all.
Remember that all of these metalworker hands also require having a grip of artifacts in your hand afterward. If any of those artifacts are rocks, now your t1 vault/crypt becomes vault/crypt/rock/PE. And then you need a fattie, or enough colored mana to cast your commander or some kind of outlet.
I would bet money that simulations would show PE generating more mana by turn 4 in more scenarios than Metalworker for an infinite card pool -- but how much different it is by 2/3/4 I'm not sure.
I do know that PE is the only one capable of a turn 1 win without Hall of the Bandit Lord there're many scenarios that result in t1 kills off of Paradox Engine with or without commanders. But Metalworker requiring haste drastically reduces those.
(I have seen several t1 functional kills with PE - usually some combination of vault/crypt/monoliths).
Edit: RE: Prophet
I think prophet went in more types of decks than PE, but it wasn't by like a huge margin. It being very cheap ($$) and multicolored meant it kinda went into any deck with a buncha ETB creatures and UG in the color profile.
PE is just a little spikier than Prophet, and a lot more $$, so I don't think we see it quite as much. But it is in a lot of decks and there are a ton of decks where it would be very good but is not played because of it being a hair spikier and more expensive than casuals typically jam.
I certainly think that PE is closer to Prophet on the scale of casual omnipresence than you're making it out to be. "ETB creatures" is not a much more common demographic than "artifact or mana dork decks." If at all.
I mean, you are still looking at extreme scenarios here. There's no reason to do a comparison based on a random card pool, because both cards only get ran in decks that are built to take advantage of them. Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare. I'm sure they happen, but not at any rate that would justify banning it. Turn 2 Splinter Twin combo also happens, as do many other busted plays coming off of god hands, and they have no bearing on the banworthiness of the cards involved (except, perhaps, the rocks themselves, though I'd argue that Crypt is the worst offender here).
I also don't understand why you are narrowing Prophet down to etb creatures. Sure, it was great with etb creatures, but it had so much more functionality than that. Getting those untaps every turn is huge on its own, which is why seedborn is a staple. Adding flash for creatures blew the card wide open, because it let you deploy threats on everyone's turn, at the end of their turns, after holding up mana for answers and to protect prophet. And, because its value was so good for literally any deck, stealing it, and adding cards to your deck to steal it, made sense. We just do not see that happening with PE, because PE is significantly more restricted in its usefulness. I also have to just keep coming back to Prophet being more widespread in its heyday despite the color restrictions. Prophet was held back in the number of decks that could run it by being two colors, so only Bant, Sultai, Temur, Simic, 5 color, UBWG, UBGR, and UWGR could run it, but all 5 mono color, 9 remaining guilds, 7 remaining arcs/wedges, and 2 remaining 4 color combos wanted it. PE meanwhile has no such restrictions, yet doesn't see as much play as Seedborn Muse, the weaker predecessor of Prophet.
Now, price, that has some bearing here, but its a $20 card vs what was a $4 card pre banning. However, for much of its history, it was around $10, only climbing in the past year. Further, its less than $1 online, so it should be showing up more there if price was a major factor.
Again, you mention that PE is a spikier card, and that's holding back its numbers. I agree, but I think that's a big argument against banning it. The decks that its good in are already more cEDH than casual, and you will run into far more in cEDH circles than casual ones. Being a cEDH staple while seeing, at best, a moderate amount of casual play precludes "problematic casual omnipresence." Again, the decks you listed as examples where its going nuts, Arcum, Selvala, Breya, those are cEDH or on the fringes of it. It can certainly go nuts in lesser decks, but it just isn't really turning up there, instead falling into cEDH more often than not. Quick check on EDHrec I'm seeing storm, $3500 Tasigur, fast combo, elfball. If its mostly doing its damage in already powerful metas, its not really a problem, its just fitting in with the sort of things already ran there. Unlike Prophet or Prime Time, which were showing up to wreck face everwhere.
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The Meaning of Life: "M-hmm. Well, it's nothing very special. Uh, try and be nice to people, avoid eating fat, read a good book every now and then, get some walking in, and try and live together in peace and harmony with people of all creeds and nations"
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare.
Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck
In a deck tuned highly to work around it PE will absolutely make more mana faster than metalworker. We're talking scenarios where MW might make 4, 6, 8 mana on turn 2/3 sometimes, but PE will make infinite or virtually infinite on turn 2/3/4 with some regularity.
I think part of the issue is we're trying to talk about two things at once. Problematic casual omnipresence confuses things because there're a lot of decks playing PE that it's not optimized for--it's just good.
If you look at Metalworker decks, not everybody runs 60 artifacts in a metalworker deck - because just to have 3-4 artifacts in hand *after ramping* that's the ratio you're talking about (since 1 ramp spell + 4 artifacts + metalworker is 6 artifacts, that means 6/9 cards were artifacts). I have seen MW decks have crappy draws where it's a dud. This happens.
Let's dial it back and talk specifically about Too Much Mana Too Quickly OR Problematic Casual Omnipresence, not both at the same time.
-------------------------------------------------
Too Much Mana Too Quickly
In its optimized state PE will generate near-infinite mana by turn 4 with a high degree of consistency. I've seen this in practice; my buddy's Sen Triplets deck is maybe an 85% deck with something like 20 rocks. I've seen him go off on turn 3 very often. All it takes is a combination of rocks that happens more often than you think.
But that's anecdotal really just like all the metalworker discussion.
Can we try to imagine what the bar is for too much mana too quickly? I'm having a hard time imagining it in the scenarios where it is highly situational (as it is with PE and Metalworker).
Fastbond - with 3-4 lands, you will consistently hit 3 (+2) mana avail turn 1 and 4 (+2) mana turn 2. That's on par with Mana Crypt and Sol Ring, so nothing really crazy except how it scales in the late game, and combos.
Channel - Turn 1 or turn 2 access to >30 mana
Tolarian Academy - I dunno, like +1 mana turn 1, +3 turn 2 typical? (With a much higher ceiling and floor, and mid game implications)
Metalworker and Paradox Engine are so much more situational i think it's tough to figure out consistently what they do.
The way *I* view it is
Metalworker - low likelihood of +4 mana on turn 2, moderate likelihood of +4-6 mana turn 3, high likelihood of +4-8 on turn 4
Paradox Engine - tiny likelihood of 4+ on turn 1, very low likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 2, low-moderate likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 3, moderate-high likelihood of +10 mana on turn 4, very high likelihood of infinite on turn 5
So PE and MW are both quite a lot slower than the other offenders, with PE being typically slower but more explosive.
The difficulty is in classifying the likelihood of these scenarios and what rules you use to determine those.
If you use the rules of a Casual Deck, you have to go back and think about Tolarian Academy and Fastbond some, because TA is a pretty medium card in a truly casual build, and Fastbond is often not much better than Burgeoning in lower powered decks.
So we need to decide how tuned of a deck we're using to think about this, and that makes it very complicated.
IMHO, way more complicated than you're making it out to be.
About as often as I see Tabernacle or Chains of Mephistopheles or Moat or The Abyss or Gaea's Workshop or Nether Void or any number of other really old, powerful cards which are on the Banned list. Somewhat less frequently than I see Gaea's Cradle, wihch doesn't have to be built around as much to still be very good. So, not very often, but that isn't really the point.
I am going to assume you mean Reserved List as none of those cards is banned. It was however my point. Stuff that shows up very rarely, has to both land and get through a turn (baring haste, which would be setup), and needing to be at least semi-build around, not that great. I think the RC rightly saw it was a relic of the past a boogey-man, and removed it.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare.
Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck
In a deck tuned highly to work around it PE will absolutely make more mana faster than metalworker. We're talking scenarios where MW might make 4, 6, 8 mana on turn 2/3 sometimes, but PE will make infinite or virtually infinite on turn 2/3/4 with some regularity.
I think part of the issue is we're trying to talk about two things at once. Problematic casual omnipresence confuses things because there're a lot of decks playing PE that it's not optimized for--it's just good.
If you look at Metalworker decks, not everybody runs 60 artifacts in a metalworker deck - because just to have 3-4 artifacts in hand *after ramping* that's the ratio you're talking about (since 1 ramp spell + 4 artifacts + metalworker is 6 artifacts, that means 6/9 cards were artifacts). I have seen MW decks have crappy draws where it's a dud. This happens.
Let's dial it back and talk specifically about Too Much Mana Too Quickly OR Problematic Casual Omnipresence, not both at the same time.
-------------------------------------------------
Too Much Mana Too Quickly
In its optimized state PE will generate near-infinite mana by turn 4 with a high degree of consistency. I've seen this in practice; my buddy's Sen Triplets deck is maybe an 85% deck with something like 20 rocks. I've seen him go off on turn 3 very often. All it takes is a combination of rocks that happens more often than you think.
But that's anecdotal really just like all the metalworker discussion.
Can we try to imagine what the bar is for too much mana too quickly? I'm having a hard time imagining it in the scenarios where it is highly situational (as it is with PE and Metalworker).
Fastbond - with 3-4 lands, you will consistently hit 3 (+2) mana avail turn 1 and 4 (+2) mana turn 2. That's on par with Mana Crypt and Sol Ring, so nothing really crazy except how it scales in the late game, and combos.
Channel - Turn 1 or turn 2 access to >30 mana
Tolarian Academy - I dunno, like +1 mana turn 1, +3 turn 2 typical? (With a much higher ceiling and floor, and mid game implications)
Metalworker and Paradox Engine are so much more situational i think it's tough to figure out consistently what they do.
The way *I* view it is
Metalworker - low likelihood of +4 mana on turn 2, moderate likelihood of +4-6 mana turn 3, high likelihood of +4-8 on turn 4
Paradox Engine - tiny likelihood of 4+ on turn 1, very low likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 2, low-moderate likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 3, moderate-high likelihood of +10 mana on turn 4, very high likelihood of infinite on turn 5
So PE and MW are both quite a lot slower than the other offenders, with PE being typically slower but more explosive.
The difficulty is in classifying the likelihood of these scenarios and what rules you use to determine those.
If you use the rules of a Casual Deck, you have to go back and think about Tolarian Academy and Fastbond some, because TA is a pretty medium card in a truly casual build, and Fastbond is often not much better than Burgeoning in lower powered decks.
So we need to decide how tuned of a deck we're using to think about this, and that makes it very complicated.
IMHO, way more complicated than you're making it out to be.
First of all, 20 rocks is a ton. That's definitely going to make it much easier to pull of going crazy with PE early, but its also a pretty extreme case. Without going that high, the chance of going nuts with it early is very small. Also note that it relies on dumping a lot out of your hand early, so you need some way to draw stuff to keep it going. Getting a rock and metalworker with a few artifacts in hand is going to come up more often, and you'll immediately have use for the mana.
Second: "Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck :p"
That was the key to metalworker being unbanned I think, that its only good in narrow decks. That is also what will probably keep PE from getting banned, in that it is only truly nuts in certain decks. PE going into something that's sub optimal just isn't dominant enough to warrant a ban, and it doesn't seem like the community is feeling compelled to stick it in any deck with 6-10 rocks.
Like, again, if metalworker is no longer clearing the "too much too fast" bar, despite being more consistent at providing large ramps early, there's no way PE clears that bar. With both cards, you can't just stick them in any deck and expect them to give you bonkers mana early, you have to build the deck around them. And with both cards, we aren't seeing a trend of large numbers of people doing that. Instead, we see the cards slotting into decks that were already good fits for them, and these are mostly at higher levels of play.
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The Meaning of Life: "M-hmm. Well, it's nothing very special. Uh, try and be nice to people, avoid eating fat, read a good book every now and then, get some walking in, and try and live together in peace and harmony with people of all creeds and nations"
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Whether its blue players countering your spells, red players burning you out, or combo, if you have a problem with an aspect of Magic's gameplay, you can fix it!
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Eh, 20 rocks is not really that many in an artifacty deck, I've seen more mana sources for sure.
I would agree that the reason metalworker got unbanned is that it's 1) fairly spikey, 2) fairly narrow, but I think you're taking my point backwards. That has nothing to do with the "too much mana too quickly" argument - metalworker survives because it doesn't really hit any other banlist criteria (while PE perhaps does?). You keep jumping from argument to argument about casual omnipresence vs. mana vs. how spikey the deck is etc etc. Let's get focused.
There are multiple hurdles to clear to get banned; too much mana too fast isn't an auto ban. Obviously otherwise Mana Crypt (which is arguably stronger than Fastbond) would be banned. Fastbond and TA get got because of other reasons (can get into that in another post if desired but I think I see the reasoning there).
What I'm trying to establish is, on the "too much mana too quickly" front that PE is close to Metalworker. Your arguments seem to assume a tuned Metalworker deck and an untuned PE deck, and in that vein I think you are overstating the case for how much more mana Metalworker makes than PE.
* Would it help if I tried to list starting hands that generate critical mana turn 3 with PE vs. Metalworker?
* Where on the spectrum do you think PE is for too much mana too quickly if MW is 7, Fastbond/Crypt 8, TA 9, Channel 10? Or do you disagree with those ballpark numbers?
20 mana rocks IS a lot. cEDH Teferi runs 13-15 and is the rampiest deck when it comes to rocks. Sharuum, an eggs deck, runs 18. And Nin, the only artifact combo deck that's remained competitive, runs 16. Both artifact decks get their OP bursts from KCI, and Nin combos with Staff of Domination because PE is too clunky. Nin also runs Metalworker.
You really overestimate PE's power, prevalence and popularity. It's a Sisay, Selvala and Jhoira card, maybe playable in Vannifar. The first two were already taking 10 minute turns before PE was printed, all it does is make sure they win once they have their engine rolling, and Jhoira wins pretty fast with it because Jhoira+Gilded Lotus+PE pretty much reads "draw your deck" unless you stumble on a very thick land pocket.
It's an excellent card, in very particular cases can be opressive, played by bad combo players it's a durdling dud. I agree with all of that, but the more we debate it the more I believe it's not nearly as powerful, potentially prevalent or problematic as PoK was.
20 mana rocks IS a lot. cEDH Teferi runs 13-15 and is the rampiest deck when it comes to rocks. Sharuum, an eggs deck, runs 18. And Nin, the only artifact combo deck that's remained competitive, runs 16. Both artifact decks get their OP bursts from KCI, and Nin combos with Staff of Domination because PE is too clunky. Nin also runs Metalworker.
You really overestimate PE's power, prevalence and popularity. It's a Sisay, Selvala and Jhoira card, maybe playable in Vannifar. The first two were already taking 10 minute turns before PE was printed, all it does is make sure they win once they have their engine rolling, and Jhoira wins pretty fast with it because Jhoira+Gilded Lotus+PE pretty much reads "draw your deck" unless you stumble on a very thick land pocket.
It's an excellent card, in very particular cases can be opressive, played by bad combo players it's a durdling dud. I agree with all of that, but the more we debate it the more I believe it's not nearly as powerful, potentially prevalent or problematic as PoK was.
I have looked at tons of decks on Edhrec, looked at my friends decks, etc. I regularly see counts in excess of 15. Usually less CEDH decks that want to mulligan less aggressively. It doesn't really matter much; it slightly increases the T1 and T2 chance to play tons of rocks, but the chance is there regardless.
I feel like you're trying a little too hard to render summary judgment with fairly basic analysis; saying things like it's sisay, selvala, vannifar, that's very narrow. I have seen it played in a huge variety of decks. Basically every artifact themed deck will want it at the casual level and many mana dork decks will as well. The most surprising one I saw was Prime Speaker who used her to refuel and then won with infinite bounce+draw using crystal shard
On one hand you say I'm overestimating these things, on the other I say you're underestimating, and that's not really a discussion.
I'm going to bow out of repeatedly trying to munge all three or four arguments together from here on out, if you guys want to discuss point by point I'm in.
Yeah I play against someone playing a Dimir PE deck that runs I think every mana rock possible almost that is 3 mana or less and it is a lot and often empties his hand very early and if left alone with all that it goes out of hand very quickly
However seeing decks like that a couple times tend to prepare people for what is happening and the disruption quickly follows.
Prevalence is obviously important, but it's not enough on its own to rule something in or out. I think the jury is really out on what a 'problematic' level of prevalence is as well so not sure how we can take the EDHREC numbers as either opening or closing the door on that.
The last philosophy document I read said:
I think PE is really close on a lot of those points. I'd say it's fuzzy when you start thinking about "decks that can run them" and what that means, but I would say there is a very broad set of decks that want a paradox engine. If you break down these points:
* Must-include in decks that can run them - Arguable since any deck can play an artifact - but a large variety of decks want it
* Strongly negative impact on the game even when not built to optimize - Check
* Have numerous combinations with other commonly played cards - Check
It's more than the problematic game states; the card has become the de facto combo enabler for literally every artifact ramp deck, which is a substantial portion of the format, as well as for most mana dork heavy decks (which is another good chunk of the format, although less so).
----------------------------------------------
If you go through all of the criteria PE hits basically every one of them as at least potential.
* Interacts poorly with the structure of commander -- Somewhat, though maybe 5/10 (in the same way POK did but without flash, I consider POK a 7/10
* Creates undesirable game states -- Check, 8/10
* Problematic casual omnipresence - Check, 7/10 (it hits a lot of the boxes but one is arguable)
* Produces too much mana too quickly - Check, 9/10 - often enabling virtually infinite mana as early as turn 3 or 4 in combination with any number of mana rocks or dorks
* Barrier to Entry - 0/10
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
It doesn't interact poorly with the format at all. Anything problematic it does in edh it does exactly the same in any other format. No rule specific to commander or multiplayer benefits it in any way.
Creates negative game states is say is sitting at more of a 6/10. Winning via combo does not count, so you have to discount any situation where it quickly wins as a combo piece as the RC simply does not count that as inherently problematic (for good reason, as they'd have to ban numerous cards if they did). That leaves situations where PE resolves and lasts but doesn't quickly win, which is often problematic as it leads to durdling and time wasting, but not always (sometimes it just works as a way to get some extra value).
Too much Mana too quickly: not at all. It costs 5 Mana and requires other cards to work. This category is really reserved for truly busted ***** like Channel that do it turn 2-3 without any help. If you are getting infinite Mana off of this turn 4, congrats, but you could have done this with a number of other cards. At this point, it's just a combo, not an issue particular to the card, and therefore irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, it starts doing its thing too late in the game to be considered to quickly, regardless of the prodigious amount of Mana it produces.
That leaves problematic casual omnipresence. The problematic part has nothing to do with the degree of omnipresence, but only whether being omnipresent is causing problems. Island is omnipresent, but not problematic. This means that there are two, separate conditions to be met for this criteria: it both has to be everywhere, a card that is an auto include and played in every deck that can add it, AND it has to cause problems whenever it's played. A problematic card that doesn't get banned for violating other categories gets banned if it's everywhere. If it isn't, if isn't getting played in most decks that can play it and hitting every game it isn't a big enough issue to ban. If a card is played everywhere and an auto include, but doesn't cause problems when it's played, it doesn't get banned. PE is not played everywhere. It's a colorless permanent and it isn't played as much as 2 color Prophet was when fewer people played the game. It is by any definition not an auto include. It does combo with numerous commonly played cards, but if you just slap it in a deck with a normal amount of artifact ramp, say 3 signets, vault, crypt, grim mono, Sol ring, and let's say 2 more of you choice, that's not enough to ensure you are getting real value from it. You may have one out, maybe two. Ok, that's a great amount of Mana, but you don't have a way to keep the cards flowing to keep the untaps coming, and you don't have a way to go infinite. You actually have to build around this card. If by artifact ramp deck you mean any deck that runs the common artifact ramp, then no, it's not an auto include there and doesn't cause problems if ran there. If you mean an artifact deck that leans heavily on ramp, thats a more narrow archetype. A colorless artifact that is and auto include in just a specific archetype is not omnipresent enough to hit this category. It can go in any deck, but it doesn't. Instead, it's only going nuts in decks built to take advantage of it, either with commanders built around tap effects or with already busted artifact decks. I'd, at best, rate this a 5/10, but I think it's more like 3/10.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
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I disagree with a lot of your other analysis, at least in scope, but it's well thought out and presented. Most of the disagreement I think is matters of taste for me.
An item I wanted to pluck out was:
When saying something like "requires other cards to work" while strictly speaking that is true, that is much different with PE than with say, Rings of Brighthearth.
Rings requires monolith to go infinite (pretty much) - PE just requires a critical mass of mana rocks or creatures which is a much more generic set of requirements, given that the decks playing PE were all playing those before it's not really as much of a deckbuilding consequence as needing to play bad cards to facilitate.
We had this same line of discussion in I believe the Torment thread, but I stand by my reasoning there:
Combos with almost all ramp cards is significantly different from Combos with a few crappy cards.
Yeah, it requires other cards, but they're all in the deck in large amounts and we're mulliganning for them, so it's not the same as narrower cards.
Yeah, I'm not sure on the interacts badly with the format action-economy wise thing. I could be just thinking about that wrong since it's equally punishing in a single player match where the user can use their reactive spells and abilities multiple times.
I've seen a few scenarios where PE player was able to defend themselves from multiple players by using reactive spells to untap stuff, but the only way in which having multiple players impacts that is by having multiple people to react to.
In one game I recall a PE player doing a seedborn muse impression by countering two spells, removing another's creature, and using the advantage from the multiple activations of all their stuff off of the counterspells and removal to win on their untap.
It's pretty narrow though I guess, so probably not that big of a deal.
That said, I do think that messing with the action economy is itself a form of interacting poorly with the format in and of itself -- Durdling has a much bigger impact in untimed multiplayer games (3 people's time is wasted vs. 1's with a time limit). But that's probably a pretty narrow interpretation on my part as well.
I'll change my opinion to "interacts poorly with the format" to more like a 2/10 or so.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
I don't know about this man. Rofellos is on there for 'too much mana too quickly' and he requires you to play a lot of basic forests. Admittedly he's in the command zone, but PE is going to make more mana than Rofellos on turn 3 or 4 most of the time in decks optimized to play it. Hell, Rofellos would play it.
Other cards on the list for too much mana too quickly (at one point)
* Metalworker, which is significantly slower than PE (or at least as dependent, and arguably slower, certainly more narrow)
* Fastbond, which is not really appreciably faster at ramping than PE, though certainly more consistent
* Tolarian Academy, which is...faster than PE but how much? Is it on a completely different planet in turn 3 mana production? I'd need to think about this a lot to see the lines of play.
Obviously PE is weaker than fastbond or Tolarian Academy, but it's certainly arguable that it's in a similar class to Metalworker (who obviously got unbanned, and has some similar combo potential) -- but if Metalworker was at one point banned, PE is probably not a 0/10.
(sorry for the additional post, not intending to spam I just realized my post was getting quite cluttered and wanted to address another point)
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
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Panharmonicon had more of an impact IME, people who didn't use to run creatures now pack Mulldrifter, Cloublazer, et al. to exploit Panharmonicon and I have seen Panharmonicon be targeted by Copy Artifact and Phyrexian Metamorph unlike PE.
Anecdotal, but everything in this discussion is. Again I play on MTGO and paper so I see hundreds more decks a month than I would if I only played at my LGS, and decks tend to be less janky because staples are cheap i.e. PE itself is $0.80
About as often as I see Tabernacle or Chains of Mephistopheles or Moat or The Abyss or Gaea's Workshop or Nether Void or any number of other really old, powerful cards which are on the Banned list. Somewhat less frequently than I see Gaea's Cradle, wihch doesn't have to be built around as much to still be very good. So, not very often, but that isn't really the point.
Metalworker is an old and rare enough card that I don't view it as a threat to the format or anything, but I don't think it brings anything good to the format either, and if it was more accessible, I do think it would be actively bad for the format. Whenever I do see it, it always has a huge impact on the game, and not in a positive way. I believe it produces too much mana too early, which is after all one of the banned list criteria.
Metal Worker was banned because it could generate ridiculous mana turn 3 off of just one rock. What it can do turn 5 is irrelevant, its what it could do turn 2-3 that was absurd, and what it could do on those turns was easily tap for 10 mana. That is too much too fast. What does PE do turn 3? What does it do turn 4 without a god hand? You need multiple rocks down at that point to be getting value from it that fast. The RC doesn't look at just the god hands to evaluate what a card is doing, but most hands. PE needs some pretty great hands to get out of hand that early. MW needs to be in an artifact deck to start ramping you ten by turn 4, and 1 rock makes that turn 3 (or 2 if its vault). That's a much lower ceiling to be effective, and a much better example of too much mana too fast. That MW got unbanned further shows what is required to get banned for this (I'd wager that requiring a dedicated deck and being significantly worse late made them decide it was ok, despite it hitting this category so hard, while Tolarian Academy is just absurd from the start and gets better as the game goes on). Rofellos is only banned because its legendary and thus sits in the command zone. When banned as a commander existed, he was legal in the 99. Legendaries have a lower bar to clear to be banned because they are always accessible. If we look at Rofellos and PE as equivalent, it would make sense that PE isn't banned, as it cannot be used as a commander. Fastbond ramps faster than PE, because it starts going nuts turn 1, but it has a lower ceiling. Building around it to the extent of building around PE (running more cards that fetch lots of land to your hand, or just more draw) makes up for that. The reason I expect Fastbond to remain banned but would be mildly surprised to see PE eat a ban is that Fastbond can slot into literally any green deck and make it immediately better, without requiring any changes (unlike PE, which with a normal amount of artifact ramp isn't going to see enough tap effects consistently to reach its potential, and is more likely to be a dead card). Its a $5 card (though I expect it would spike, probably quintuple in price at least, because right now its only legal in vintage), it would get played heavily.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
You don't need an artifact deck to play pe. I see it just as often in mana dork decks like selvala set Seton, rashmi, momir, primeapeaker, etc.
Bend with me here a little and agree that pe is on the spectrum of metalworker.
I've seen PE generate critical mana on turn 3 in both dork and artifact decks many times. Way more than metalworker because worker requires untapping and creature removal is way easier than artifact.
It requires the same thing to have a busted start - a turn one ramp spell - but pe can be dorks or artifacts. And mw requires artifacts in hand and a t1 ramp spell, where as pe requires two or three ramps.
They are certainly not so far apart as to be beyond compare and making it out otherwise is pretty unfair in my opinion.
I dunno about charting opening hands but I've seen a pretty huge variety of PE hands ranging from busted with t1 multiple rocks to just pretty strong with t4 or t5 explosive hands generating critical amounts of mana.
After comparing to the existing list, I'm going to revise my score on too much mana too quickly (assuming this is some kinda logarithmic scale since Channel is quite a bit more busted than the rest I think).
* Channel is a 10
* Tolarian Academy is 9
* Fastbond is 8
* Metalworker is 7
I think PE is 7/10 just on that raw scale, roughly comparable with Metalworker, though it's really hard to separate some of the other quirks in my head. They both have significant deckbuilding consequences and require other cards to get there, but they both have a huge variety of starts that get there.
PE can easily generate way more than metalworker, but Metalworker takes a little less setup. So it's kinda iffy to me.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
PE is nowhere near as good as Metalworker. Metalworker drops Ulamog or Ugin turn 2. PE usually does well turn 4-6 with notable build up, at that point other players should be capable of fighting it.
It's nowhere near the same magnitude of power as Fastbond or Metalworker. It's more in line with Altar/Deathmantle and Monolith/Rings.
Mana dorks are possibly more effective (in some ways, and consistent anyway) than rocks because they are easier to sequence (there are more dorks so getting turn 1 ramp is much easier). Your assessment doesn't jive with how PE is played in my experience. The PE dork decks often play some of the better rocks too but they don't need to play as many bad ones like worn powerstone.
There are also lots of generically powerful commanders and cards that interact positively with creatures + PE -- cards like Glimpse, Lifecrafter's Bestiary, Beast Whisperer, etc.
Edit: If you look at decks that play PE, it's a who's who of artifact and mana dork commanders; for every Breya there's a Sisay, for every Arcum there's a Selvala.
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Please tell me a sequence where you untap t2 with Metalworker that does not also bust the game if you do it with Paradox engine. I'm very interested. Hands that generate 3 mana on turn 1 and then have enough artifacts to tap Metalworker for 6+ are pretty few and far between.
My thought exercises suggested that any explosive ramp turn that generates a t1 metalworker is just as likely to go ape with a paradox engine.
T2 metalworker also requires t1 ramp (chrome mox, sol ring, mana crypt, mox diamond, etc.).
If you change your statement to "explosive turn 3" from "t2 10 mana" I'd buy it more. The way you phrased it sounds like not well thought out rhetoric to me.
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Edit: realized I didn't address the Rings statement, but...
Rings only combos infinitely with a couple things (stuff like wirewood lodge, deserted temple, monolith, etc.), and doesn't generate much mana in other ways that aren't infinite.
I don't think Rings is anywhere near comparable to PE, because PE synergizes so strongly with so many things whereas Rings is just kinda good with a few things and then goes infinite with a handful.
PE goes infinite in about a hundred different ways and functionally infinite in numerous others - generating enough mana to run yourself out of cards with just a few rocks or dorks in most cases. Assuming you run out of cards.
Rings is one of the examples I used earlier to explain how narrow combos that generate a lot of mana are not as big an issue as broad interactions that synergize with lots of cards.
And additionally an interesting thing is that many decks have stopped running Rings in favor of running PE, because it's way more efficient at doing the same thing (and generates colored mana more easily). You'll see PE sees a bit more play than Rings even, despite Rings being around forever
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Prophet did, I agree
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Land, vault metalworker, untap, or Mana crypt instead of vault would be even stronger. I can't show you the same so easily for PE, that's the point. You'd need to get both vault AND crypt turn 1 with PE in hand, which is venturing into magical Christmasland, while merely getting one rock is realistic. You need a god hand to go ape with PE that early, but you only need a good hand to do the same with metalworker. It's a major difference. With just vault, you aren't casting PE until turn 3, and untapping with it turn 4 (and needing something to cast for 2 Mana because vault is tapped). With crypt, you wait to cast it until turn 4. Waiting two turns that early in the game in the same situation is huge, and puts them in two different ball parks. Then you change things up and say Sol ring instead, metalworker hits turn 2 and untaps turn 3, PE is still waiting to be cast. You have a pretty realistic though uncommon chance of getting two cards you need in your opening hand, while getting 3+ is extremely rare. Meanwhile, making 10 with metalworker is normal. You have 8 cards in your hand turn 1, you play 3, then draw 1 turn 2, six cards in hand. You play metalworker in artifact decks, so it's realistic to have 5/6 be artifacts. Even if 4/6 are, your still churning out 8 Mana turn 2. Heck, even if only half hour cards in hand are artifacts, that's still 6 Mana off the metalworker. You have another from your land, then depending on how you got there even more (maybe you had crypt instead, or ancient tomb). You have many more combinations that lead to a turn 1 metalworker than you have for a turn 1 PE, and they leave more cards in hand. You probably have at least as many as you do for a turn 2 PE. Workshop gets you there on its own. Ancient tomb plus any rock does as well.
The rest of your post doesn't really help your case, you are describing decks that are built around PE, either because they have commanders that take advantage of it by tapping or they add a higher number than average of Mana dorks and rocks. Most decks do not run high numbers of Mana dorks. We're getting into a situation again where you cannot just slot the card into any deck that can run it, which is every deck since it's colorless, or even nearly any deck that can, and expect it to perform. You either have to have it be a deck that already wants that effect, or you have to start adding more rocks, dorks, and tap effects to get a critical mass to ensure that PE always performs when you draw it. Cards that actually hit problematic omnipresence did not need these considerations. Prime Time just went in every green deck, because every deck could use a fatty that tutored lands into play. Prophet went in nearly every U/G deck, because nearly every U/G deck ran creatures, and even many that didn't run enough creatures still got plenty of use out of untapping everything every turn to make it still worth it. Sylvan was solid removal attached to ramp and stapled to a big body. Those we're all things that where universally useful. PE needs a bit more help to get there, which is why it doesn't get ran as much despite being colorless and thus having more decks that it can legally be put into. You see a lot of it in your playgroup, others don't, and I rarely see it online. I only expect to see it in decks like the ones you mentioned, and honestly I'm already expecting those decks to do degenerate things anyway whether they have PE or not. They are already kill on sight.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
I would bet money that simulations would show PE generating more mana by turn 4 in more scenarios than Metalworker for an infinite card pool -- but how much different it is by 2/3/4 I'm not sure.
I do know that PE is the only one capable of a turn 1 win without Hall of the Bandit Lord
(I have seen several t1 functional kills with PE - usually some combination of vault/crypt/monoliths).
Edit: RE: Prophet
I think prophet went in more types of decks than PE, but it wasn't by like a huge margin. It being very cheap ($$) and multicolored meant it kinda went into any deck with a buncha ETB creatures and UG in the color profile.
PE is just a little spikier than Prophet, and a lot more $$, so I don't think we see it quite as much. But it is in a lot of decks and there are a ton of decks where it would be very good but is not played because of it being a hair spikier and more expensive than casuals typically jam.
I certainly think that PE is closer to Prophet on the scale of casual omnipresence than you're making it out to be. "ETB creatures" is not a much more common demographic than "artifact or mana dork decks." If at all.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
I mean, you are still looking at extreme scenarios here. There's no reason to do a comparison based on a random card pool, because both cards only get ran in decks that are built to take advantage of them. Any deck that's running metal worker is running enough artifacts that 3 in hand should be the minimum expected, 4 should be average, and 5 should be merely uncommon, rather than rare. Getting a rock in your opening hand to set this up is, likewise, merely uncommon. On the other hand, the scenarios you are describing for PE are pretty darn rare. I'm sure they happen, but not at any rate that would justify banning it. Turn 2 Splinter Twin combo also happens, as do many other busted plays coming off of god hands, and they have no bearing on the banworthiness of the cards involved (except, perhaps, the rocks themselves, though I'd argue that Crypt is the worst offender here).
I also don't understand why you are narrowing Prophet down to etb creatures. Sure, it was great with etb creatures, but it had so much more functionality than that. Getting those untaps every turn is huge on its own, which is why seedborn is a staple. Adding flash for creatures blew the card wide open, because it let you deploy threats on everyone's turn, at the end of their turns, after holding up mana for answers and to protect prophet. And, because its value was so good for literally any deck, stealing it, and adding cards to your deck to steal it, made sense. We just do not see that happening with PE, because PE is significantly more restricted in its usefulness. I also have to just keep coming back to Prophet being more widespread in its heyday despite the color restrictions. Prophet was held back in the number of decks that could run it by being two colors, so only Bant, Sultai, Temur, Simic, 5 color, UBWG, UBGR, and UWGR could run it, but all 5 mono color, 9 remaining guilds, 7 remaining arcs/wedges, and 2 remaining 4 color combos wanted it. PE meanwhile has no such restrictions, yet doesn't see as much play as Seedborn Muse, the weaker predecessor of Prophet.
Now, price, that has some bearing here, but its a $20 card vs what was a $4 card pre banning. However, for much of its history, it was around $10, only climbing in the past year. Further, its less than $1 online, so it should be showing up more there if price was a major factor.
Again, you mention that PE is a spikier card, and that's holding back its numbers. I agree, but I think that's a big argument against banning it. The decks that its good in are already more cEDH than casual, and you will run into far more in cEDH circles than casual ones. Being a cEDH staple while seeing, at best, a moderate amount of casual play precludes "problematic casual omnipresence." Again, the decks you listed as examples where its going nuts, Arcum, Selvala, Breya, those are cEDH or on the fringes of it. It can certainly go nuts in lesser decks, but it just isn't really turning up there, instead falling into cEDH more often than not. Quick check on EDHrec I'm seeing storm, $3500 Tasigur, fast combo, elfball. If its mostly doing its damage in already powerful metas, its not really a problem, its just fitting in with the sort of things already ran there. Unlike Prophet or Prime Time, which were showing up to wreck face everwhere.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck
In a deck tuned highly to work around it PE will absolutely make more mana faster than metalworker. We're talking scenarios where MW might make 4, 6, 8 mana on turn 2/3 sometimes, but PE will make infinite or virtually infinite on turn 2/3/4 with some regularity.
I think part of the issue is we're trying to talk about two things at once. Problematic casual omnipresence confuses things because there're a lot of decks playing PE that it's not optimized for--it's just good.
If you look at Metalworker decks, not everybody runs 60 artifacts in a metalworker deck - because just to have 3-4 artifacts in hand *after ramping* that's the ratio you're talking about (since 1 ramp spell + 4 artifacts + metalworker is 6 artifacts, that means 6/9 cards were artifacts). I have seen MW decks have crappy draws where it's a dud. This happens.
Let's dial it back and talk specifically about Too Much Mana Too Quickly OR Problematic Casual Omnipresence, not both at the same time.
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Too Much Mana Too Quickly
In its optimized state PE will generate near-infinite mana by turn 4 with a high degree of consistency. I've seen this in practice; my buddy's Sen Triplets deck is maybe an 85% deck with something like 20 rocks. I've seen him go off on turn 3 very often. All it takes is a combination of rocks that happens more often than you think.
But that's anecdotal really just like all the metalworker discussion.
Can we try to imagine what the bar is for too much mana too quickly? I'm having a hard time imagining it in the scenarios where it is highly situational (as it is with PE and Metalworker).
Fastbond - with 3-4 lands, you will consistently hit 3 (+2) mana avail turn 1 and 4 (+2) mana turn 2. That's on par with Mana Crypt and Sol Ring, so nothing really crazy except how it scales in the late game, and combos.
Channel - Turn 1 or turn 2 access to >30 mana
Tolarian Academy - I dunno, like +1 mana turn 1, +3 turn 2 typical? (With a much higher ceiling and floor, and mid game implications)
Metalworker and Paradox Engine are so much more situational i think it's tough to figure out consistently what they do.
The way *I* view it is
Metalworker - low likelihood of +4 mana on turn 2, moderate likelihood of +4-6 mana turn 3, high likelihood of +4-8 on turn 4
Paradox Engine - tiny likelihood of 4+ on turn 1, very low likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 2, low-moderate likelihood of +4-10+ mana on turn 3, moderate-high likelihood of +10 mana on turn 4, very high likelihood of infinite on turn 5
So PE and MW are both quite a lot slower than the other offenders, with PE being typically slower but more explosive.
The difficulty is in classifying the likelihood of these scenarios and what rules you use to determine those.
If you use the rules of a Casual Deck, you have to go back and think about Tolarian Academy and Fastbond some, because TA is a pretty medium card in a truly casual build, and Fastbond is often not much better than Burgeoning in lower powered decks.
So we need to decide how tuned of a deck we're using to think about this, and that makes it very complicated.
IMHO, way more complicated than you're making it out to be.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
First of all, 20 rocks is a ton. That's definitely going to make it much easier to pull of going crazy with PE early, but its also a pretty extreme case. Without going that high, the chance of going nuts with it early is very small. Also note that it relies on dumping a lot out of your hand early, so you need some way to draw stuff to keep it going. Getting a rock and metalworker with a few artifacts in hand is going to come up more often, and you'll immediately have use for the mana.
Second: "Eh, I think this is a bit confused; on one hand we talk about PE as if it's from a position of being in any deck it's good enough for vs. Metalworker in a deck extremely tuned to work around it. Yeah PE will be crappy a lot in an untuned deck but so would MW if you put it in a non-optimized deck :p"
That was the key to metalworker being unbanned I think, that its only good in narrow decks. That is also what will probably keep PE from getting banned, in that it is only truly nuts in certain decks. PE going into something that's sub optimal just isn't dominant enough to warrant a ban, and it doesn't seem like the community is feeling compelled to stick it in any deck with 6-10 rocks.
Like, again, if metalworker is no longer clearing the "too much too fast" bar, despite being more consistent at providing large ramps early, there's no way PE clears that bar. With both cards, you can't just stick them in any deck and expect them to give you bonkers mana early, you have to build the deck around them. And with both cards, we aren't seeing a trend of large numbers of people doing that. Instead, we see the cards slotting into decks that were already good fits for them, and these are mostly at higher levels of play.
Onering's 4 simple steps that let you solve any problem with Magic's gameplay
Step 1: Identify the problem. What aspect of Magic don't you like? Step 2: Find out how others deal with the problem. How do players deal with this aspect of the game when they run into it? Step 3: Do what those players do. Step 4: No more problem. Bonus: You are now better at Magic. Enjoy those extra wins!
I would agree that the reason metalworker got unbanned is that it's 1) fairly spikey, 2) fairly narrow, but I think you're taking my point backwards. That has nothing to do with the "too much mana too quickly" argument - metalworker survives because it doesn't really hit any other banlist criteria (while PE perhaps does?). You keep jumping from argument to argument about casual omnipresence vs. mana vs. how spikey the deck is etc etc. Let's get focused.
There are multiple hurdles to clear to get banned; too much mana too fast isn't an auto ban. Obviously otherwise Mana Crypt (which is arguably stronger than Fastbond) would be banned. Fastbond and TA get got because of other reasons (can get into that in another post if desired but I think I see the reasoning there).
What I'm trying to establish is, on the "too much mana too quickly" front that PE is close to Metalworker. Your arguments seem to assume a tuned Metalworker deck and an untuned PE deck, and in that vein I think you are overstating the case for how much more mana Metalworker makes than PE.
* Would it help if I tried to list starting hands that generate critical mana turn 3 with PE vs. Metalworker?
* Where on the spectrum do you think PE is for too much mana too quickly if MW is 7, Fastbond/Crypt 8, TA 9, Channel 10? Or do you disagree with those ballpark numbers?
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
You really overestimate PE's power, prevalence and popularity. It's a Sisay, Selvala and Jhoira card, maybe playable in Vannifar. The first two were already taking 10 minute turns before PE was printed, all it does is make sure they win once they have their engine rolling, and Jhoira wins pretty fast with it because Jhoira+Gilded Lotus+PE pretty much reads "draw your deck" unless you stumble on a very thick land pocket.
It's an excellent card, in very particular cases can be opressive, played by bad combo players it's a durdling dud. I agree with all of that, but the more we debate it the more I believe it's not nearly as powerful, potentially prevalent or problematic as PoK was.
I have looked at tons of decks on Edhrec, looked at my friends decks, etc. I regularly see counts in excess of 15. Usually less CEDH decks that want to mulligan less aggressively. It doesn't really matter much; it slightly increases the T1 and T2 chance to play tons of rocks, but the chance is there regardless.
I feel like you're trying a little too hard to render summary judgment with fairly basic analysis; saying things like it's sisay, selvala, vannifar, that's very narrow. I have seen it played in a huge variety of decks. Basically every artifact themed deck will want it at the casual level and many mana dork decks will as well. The most surprising one I saw was Prime Speaker who used her to refuel and then won with infinite bounce+draw using crystal shard
On one hand you say I'm overestimating these things, on the other I say you're underestimating, and that's not really a discussion.
I'm going to bow out of repeatedly trying to munge all three or four arguments together from here on out, if you guys want to discuss point by point I'm in.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
However seeing decks like that a couple times tend to prepare people for what is happening and the disruption quickly follows.