Quote from toctheyounger77 »I mean I guess there's decks out there that are pretty much solved, so yeah there's that. Waiting for a functional Sol Ring reprint seems a waste of time, I don't think we'll see anything like that again. That being said, surely there's other bits and pieces that get released here and there that make you want to take a deck into different directions, right? Although I guess there's no need to fix what already works if you're winning T1.
Quote from GarrukMasterofBeats »As stated previously, if you're winning on turn 1, doubtful anything will be printed to improve that (although something someday might be printed to increase its efficiency).
Otherwise no, not until they stop printing cards. I might have a deck (like my Mayael deck) that hasn't had an addition in the longest time, until they printed Ilharg the sneak attack boar and he went right in. It might be years before I get another card to fit into that deck but, eventually, there will be one.
Quote from Shadow345 »To be honest, when a deck feels completed or solved, is the exact point that it becomes boring.
The testing the waters phase is always the most fun when playing.
Quote from Thorshammer813 »The island out Emergence Zone in is GOING to happen.
Long live ARCUM DAGSSON.
ETA: I agree that prizes are for when you want people to play very short games.
Quote from Gashnaw II »as for my Jhoira deck, the newest set is Dominaria (Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain) and until they release another 0 costing mana rock, there is little chance she will be upgraded. (But when decks consistently win turn 1, there is little room to upgrade)
Quote from DirkGently »Quote from Gashnaw II »as for my Jhoira deck, the newest set is Dominaria (Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain) and until they release another 0 costing mana rock, there is little chance she will be upgraded. (But when decks consistently win turn 1, there is little room to upgrade)You've brought up your Jhoira deck a lot (and I've seen others bring her up too) as being able to win turn 1 "consistently".
Maybe this isn't the right thread for the topic, but I'm a bit skeptical. Or at least I want to understand better. Turn 1 Jhoira alone is really unlikely, you'd need multiple pieces of fast mana (crypt + petal/mox does it, but even sol ring and mana vault are difficult to use to get there, since they need a mana to play, which makes getting 2 different colored mana really unlikely). And from there, you still need more pieces to actually storm off. Or is it some other combo, like dramatic scepter? Which also seems really hard T1 - at least you don't need colored mana, but you need 4 plus two specific combo pieces.
I also notice that Jhoira is, at least on that silly tier list, conspicuously not tier 1, which seems unusual for a commander that can supposedly "win consistently on turn 1".
Is there some combo I'm not considering? Am I underestimating the amount of fast mana in the format? Are we using different definitions of "consistently"? Because I'd say "consistently" means "more than 70% of the time or so", which seems really difficult to believe with my current understanding of the deck.
I'm certainly no cEDH expert so I'm totally open to being wrong, but I've played against a cEDH Jhoira deck before and, while it was strong, I don't think he ever won before turn 3 or so. Maybe turn 2 at the earliest. So I'm having a hard time with this "consistent turn 1 wins" thing.
Quote from DirkGently »ok, so in terms of fast mana that helps you play jhoira turn 1, there's:
chrome mox mana crypt sol ring mox diamond simian spirit guide lotus petal mox opal seething song desperate ritual pyretic ritual mana vault Gemstone caverns
...did i miss anything? I don't have a decklist to work off of.
sorting those out, we've got...
1 crypt, 2 free colorless mana
2 mox diamond, spirit guide, lotus petal, mox opal, chrome mox, gemstone caverns - 1 free colored mana each, sometimes with restrictions
3 sol ring and mana vault, which turns 1 colorless into 2(+), and desperate/pyretic ritual, which does basically the same provided you have a red to start
4 seething song, which is mostly useless in terms of casting jhoira, but can turn 2R into 2RU in tandem with a 2-mana rock that taps for 2 in some capacity
In order to get a T1 Jhoira, you'd need...
1 from category 1 + 1 from category 2 + land
3 from category 2 + land
2 from category 2 + 1 from category 3 + land
1 from category 1 + 1 from category 4 + land + 2 mana rock that taps for blue and is untapped (which are pretty rare on their own, tbh)
There are other possibilities but I think those are the main ones? There are weird things like casting retract to reset multiple free mana rocks, idk if that's a major consideration though.
anyway, running down the list...
odds of a mana crypt in the first 8 cards is ~8%, which multiplied with the chance of another free fast mana (~40%) is ~3%.
odds of three from category 2 is .6%, using a hypergeometric calculator because I'm lazy.
but if we consider category 3 part of category 2, which is mooostly correct, the odds rise to 2.1%. This is a little bit high since land + chrome mox + pyretic + sol ring can't cast jhoira, so let's round down to 2%, putting our odds so far at around 5%.
odds for anything involving seeting song are going to get really long, really fast, so I'm just going to ignore it since we already need a specific card (seething song), and then another specific card (mana crypt, or 2 other fast mana), and then one of just a couple different cards for the blue mana (which can't include fast mana or we could have just done it w/o the seething song).
But even that 5% is too high, because we also need a land, and given a 31 land deck and quite a few slots filled up already, the odds are good but they definitely aren't guaranteed. We also need multiple colors, so certain combinations like mountain + spirit guide + crypt don't work, which could drastically cut down the number of acceptable lands. On top of that, many of the fast mana have additional requirements - mox diamond needs a second land, mox opal needs 2 more free artifacts, chrome mox needs a colored (usually not artifact!) card, gemstone caverns needs to not go first, etc. And since these cards are a mainstay of our possible combinations, those criteria can definitely nosedive our chances.
But all that gets really tough to calculate. But just to ballpark it...I'm guessing something like 3% to cast Jhoira, perhaps?
And then we're ignoring the elephant in the room, which is that simply casting jhoira is a far cry from a win. You can cycle all the free artifacts, sure, but eventually you'll need more (probably colored) mana in order to cast a retract or something and really take off, mana-wise. I have no idea about the odds on that, but they feel...not great. Easy enough on turn 2 if you've cast jhoira turn 1, but really tough considering you probably just pillaged your hand for parts (chrome mox, mox diamond, gemstone caverns, etc) in order to even cast jhoira in the first place. You're probably relying on like 4 cards to win you the game.
So what are we looking at, maybe 1% or something?
Now, granted - mulligans are a thing. So that does kick the odds up considerably, although reducing hand size by 1 is immediately going to tank the odds of getting a turn 1 jhoira, let alone with the parts to win afterward. So mostly we're hoping the second hand will have the parts we need. So let's take that 1%, add another 1% for the second hand assuming we always mulligan if it doesn't win T1 (although that's already an issue since we don't see the 8th card yet and so we couldn't know) and then another 1% for all the other mulligans, although the odds drop off precipitously. So maaaaybe 3%?
Am I way off base? I'm not seeing anything close to this "consistent turn 1 wins" thing. I can believe it happens once in a particularly blue moon, and maybe once someone pulled off a few turn 1s within a couple games of each other, if they were incredibly lucky and/or didn't shuffle very well. But when you say "consistent"...what exactly do you mean by that? What percentage of games do YOU think you win on turn 1?
Quote from DirkGently »Are there cards I'm missing? Just in the roughest analysis, there's only like 11 cards in that list (of which you're only running 8?) that can help get you there turn 1, and except for mana crypt you need 3 of them basically. Getting 3 of them in 8 draws is 1.6%, which even if you're mulliganning very aggressively, I don't see how it's possible to break maybe 5% at maximum, which is a far cry from 20%. And that's ignoring...
-You can't see the 8th card while mulliganning
-You still have to, y'know, win after casting jhoira
-You have to fit the requirements for some of the free mana
-Many combinations of fast mana don't give you the right colors
So I just don't get where this 20% is coming from? Is there more fast mana I'm not considering? Other ways to win? Help me out here, because the math just does not add up for me. Putting up the decklist would make it easier to see what's going on at least, but from where I'm sitting it looks way more likely that you've either had amazing luck in a relatively small sample size, or you're overestimating the numbers. And Jhoira's absence from the top tier in the cEDH list seems like it agrees with this assessment.
Quote from DirkGently »Wouldn't you need to cast it 3x per turn, since you're drawing from draw step + immortal sun + commander? And why would haste matter, you don't need to attack even if he can (or if he has to for some reason, play him second main)? Also - unless I'm missing something, which is totally possible - is it really that lucky? If someone tries to mill you while you have nexus of fate, you'll always win that game provided you can cast it and have some sort of way to progress towards a win either on board, or castable in hand. If nexus wasn't in your hand, it would have just ended up as the sole card in your deck? Unless it was exile mill? Anyway it's not like being lucky is a persistent condition.
Turn 2 is waaaaay more believable than turn 1. If you said you won even, say, 50% of your games on turn 2...I might be a little skeptical...but it would be really hard to disprove with simple probabilities. Let alone later turns. I can absolutely believe that turn 3-4 is fairly easy (at least when not disrupted) - that's true of many cEDH decks from my knowledge/experience. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the deck could goldfish 80%+ of games on turn <= 4. Doesn't really prove anything about a turn 1 win, though. Turn 1 wins are really, really unlikely. Even in vintage, to my understanding.
"May not always be turn 1. But it is still very early most games with 6 being a very late."
^ this seems roughly equivalent to "I can't always run a four minute mile, but I almost always finish a mile in less then twenty minutes." They're such disparate claims that the latter says almost nothing about the former.
Quote from GloriousGoose »Are we really having a semantics argument about what "consistently" means?