If it's 33% T1 wins (assuming your T1 wins always involve casting Jhoira?) and if you only win 50% the games T1 where you cast her T1...that would mean you'd need to cast her T1 66% of the time?
And the cards that help you cast her T1 that you're running are...
Seething song is not really there to boost out Jhoira turn 1, but it does help after a couple of mana rocks after jhoira is out, but not at first. (It is also not a key component in turn 1 win. Jhoira's main power is the fact that there are 27 0 cast spells, (well 0 or X, which cans till be 0) which allows me to draw, there are 31 lands which usually get removed as soon as I dig into mana severance. A good time FoW can stop everything i get that, but it still works overall. This deck has won me a tournament, (2hG, ally playing control. Had to burn a Pact just to make sure mana severance was not countered)
But yes those are eteh main cards, but not the only rocks, and as long as I can get Helm out, I can actually turn those 27 free cards into 35, and if i have the mana, i can even play Etherium sculptor and Jhoira's Familiar. making the most mana expensive card in the deck (Psychosis crawler) only cost 1
Yes i get it the deck does not win every game i play with it, and the last few games it has only won turn 1 once, but the fact remains, that many deck need magical Christmas land to win turn 1. this deck does not. Constancy does not mean always, in this case, i am saying one that happens more often than it should is consistent. especially in games like Magic where turn 1 is not meant to be the goal. (But again, when you are playing for money or packs, you go a little try hard)
The reson thsi deck was actually built was to deal with a guy who played Very oppressive and stax heavy Derevi (Which is also the core reason why I hate derevi decks and sadly why anyone playing them gets hated out by me very quickly, even if their deck is not as oppressive or even remotely so) A Rakdos deck, which was not so bad, still oppressive, but a lot easier to take down with help. (His derevi deck would require three people focusing on him and he would still win) A kozilek deck, which was too fast to deal with (Turn 4 kozi was the norm, for both his and my kozi deck. His kozi deck had more combo though) And finally his Thrasios and Tymna deck (which was infinite mana into Labman)
So no you are not missing anything with the costs, but they are not the only mana rocks, just the ones that help cast my general. Mox Amber is a mana rock that shows up. Mox Opal shows up, Izzet Signet, (Which while not really a mana accel, does help when the game goes longer than 2 turns)
I'm not really contesting anything other than the odds of casting T1 Jhoira. It's a bit beyond my skill with probabilities to figure out the odds of comboing off after playing jhoira, so if you say 50% then I'm fine going with that number. You don't need to prove anything to me on that front (I might be skeptical if you said 95% or something, but 50%...sure, I can roll with that).
The main thing that I'm trying to figure out is whether I'm missing something in regards to how reliably you say you're casting T1 Jhoira, and seems like the answer is...no? So I think I have to conclude that you must have gotten spectacularly lucky to have pulled off a T1 win at all, let alone repeatedly, since I'm pretty sure the odds of a T1 jhoira is roundabouts 5%, and with a 50% chance of comboing off afterwards, that's only 2.5%. Which is still impressive for commander, but it's not exactly every game. You'd have to be really bad at estimation to win 1/40 games T1 and then think it was 1/3, so I think you must have just gotten really lucky?
As I said, I don't really have any interest in arguing semantics, I just want to understand the odds here. I'm not trying to demean you or your deck or anything. I just want to figure out what's going on with the numbers.
Skepticism is fair. I get that it does seem unlikely that a deck would be able to reliably win turn one every game, and as I said the deck has not exactly been behaving as I would like it to in my last few games.
And it is not even 50% win con it is 50% of the games I cast her turn 1.
So maybe i will not get another turn 1 for a long time. My luck for turn ones wins may have run out, Perhaps it was due to my shuffling and having a clump of cards needed to win got stuck together, so even shuffling and cutting did not dissolve the chance of winning. (Mana severance has never been at teh bottom of the deck, it has always been around top.
Even if my deck cannot always win turn 1. i still feel it would be in my best interest to add in Mystical tutor. Since my deck has not been cooperating as of late, just upping the chance of getting Mana severance is a good idea. Possibly also adding beseiju, since making it uncounterable is a smart move.
Yeah, definitely possible there was a clump of fast mana. That or I'm way worse at probability than I thought. If anyone else wants to have a crack at it, go ahead. Although maybe I've derailed this thread long enough
Yeah, definitely possible there was a clump of fast mana. That or I'm way worse at probability than I thought. If anyone else wants to have a crack at it, go ahead. Although maybe I've derailed this thread long enough
yes I think we have, but it was a nice conversation.
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Seething song is not really there to boost out Jhoira turn 1, but it does help after a couple of mana rocks after jhoira is out, but not at first. (It is also not a key component in turn 1 win. Jhoira's main power is the fact that there are 27 0 cast spells, (well 0 or X, which cans till be 0) which allows me to draw, there are 31 lands which usually get removed as soon as I dig into mana severance. A good time FoW can stop everything i get that, but it still works overall. This deck has won me a tournament, (2hG, ally playing control. Had to burn a Pact just to make sure mana severance was not countered)
But yes those are eteh main cards, but not the only rocks, and as long as I can get Helm out, I can actually turn those 27 free cards into 35, and if i have the mana, i can even play Etherium sculptor and Jhoira's Familiar. making the most mana expensive card in the deck (Psychosis crawler) only cost 1
Yes i get it the deck does not win every game i play with it, and the last few games it has only won turn 1 once, but the fact remains, that many deck need magical Christmas land to win turn 1. this deck does not. Constancy does not mean always, in this case, i am saying one that happens more often than it should is consistent. especially in games like Magic where turn 1 is not meant to be the goal. (But again, when you are playing for money or packs, you go a little try hard)
The reson thsi deck was actually built was to deal with a guy who played Very oppressive and stax heavy Derevi (Which is also the core reason why I hate derevi decks and sadly why anyone playing them gets hated out by me very quickly, even if their deck is not as oppressive or even remotely so) A Rakdos deck, which was not so bad, still oppressive, but a lot easier to take down with help. (His derevi deck would require three people focusing on him and he would still win) A kozilek deck, which was too fast to deal with (Turn 4 kozi was the norm, for both his and my kozi deck. His kozi deck had more combo though) And finally his Thrasios and Tymna deck (which was infinite mana into Labman)
So no you are not missing anything with the costs, but they are not the only mana rocks, just the ones that help cast my general. Mox Amber is a mana rock that shows up. Mox Opal shows up, Izzet Signet, (Which while not really a mana accel, does help when the game goes longer than 2 turns)
The main thing that I'm trying to figure out is whether I'm missing something in regards to how reliably you say you're casting T1 Jhoira, and seems like the answer is...no? So I think I have to conclude that you must have gotten spectacularly lucky to have pulled off a T1 win at all, let alone repeatedly, since I'm pretty sure the odds of a T1 jhoira is roundabouts 5%, and with a 50% chance of comboing off afterwards, that's only 2.5%. Which is still impressive for commander, but it's not exactly every game. You'd have to be really bad at estimation to win 1/40 games T1 and then think it was 1/3, so I think you must have just gotten really lucky?
As I said, I don't really have any interest in arguing semantics, I just want to understand the odds here. I'm not trying to demean you or your deck or anything. I just want to figure out what's going on with the numbers.
EDH Primers
Phelddagrif - Zirilan
EDH
Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif 4 - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif 3 - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6
And it is not even 50% win con it is 50% of the games I cast her turn 1.
So maybe i will not get another turn 1 for a long time. My luck for turn ones wins may have run out, Perhaps it was due to my shuffling and having a clump of cards needed to win got stuck together, so even shuffling and cutting did not dissolve the chance of winning. (Mana severance has never been at teh bottom of the deck, it has always been around top.
Even if my deck cannot always win turn 1. i still feel it would be in my best interest to add in Mystical tutor. Since my deck has not been cooperating as of late, just upping the chance of getting Mana severance is a good idea. Possibly also adding beseiju, since making it uncounterable is a smart move.
EDH Primers
Phelddagrif - Zirilan
EDH
Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif 4 - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif 3 - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6
yes I think we have, but it was a nice conversation.