So I'm always chronically short on decent lands due to having way too many decks and good lands costing too much money. With the shocklands up for a rerun in standard with the release of GRN, I was wondering what the best moment would be to buy some additional ones? On one hand, them being in standard greatly increases supply, which would lead to lower prices. However, demand will also skyrocket as people who play standard will want them too. The best answer is probably to wait until GRN and the 2nd Ravniva 3 set rotate out of standard, but that's too long for my tastes.
Anyway, at the moment of writing they cost about €8-€12 a piece. Do people see them go to like €5 and if so, when?
What's a commander only player to do?
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The secret to enjoyable Commander games is not winning first, but losing last.
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I can't comment on when to buy the lands themselves, but I use a staples folder. I buy a single copy of each card, and use printouts of each card in my decks. If anyone has an issue*, I can bring out the folder, and/or swap the print out for the actual card.
*I only play in a select playgroup, so no one ever has an issue.
It saves me so much money. On shocks alone I'd need 25 total to cover my decks, but using the staples folder I only need 10.
I anticipate shocklands dropping massively in price. Right now, as you already mentioned, the shocklands are already pretty affordable, and that's bearing the fact that they're immensely popular in both Modern and in other formats like Commander. That's because, despite their huge demand, RTR block was printed out the wazoo, and the supply of shocklands is just absolutely enormous. (They're just rares.)
Guilds of Ravnica is going to have a huge print run. It could very well be the most printed Magic set to date, and I suspect the increased supply of shocklands will absolutely dwarf the newfound demand created by Standard. In fact, I suspect most of these lands will be going from somewhere between $2-$6, much like other lands in Standard are priced right now. (IIRC, Steam Vents was only $4 at one point back when it was printed during RTR.)
If I was interested in picking up shocklands, I would wait 2-3 weeks after the set releases to pick up my copies. Supply will peak by that point, and the prices will have leveled out after their initial over-inflated pre-order prices. Of course, if the pre-order prices get low enough, I wouldn't hesitate to just jump the gun and buy in.
I say wait a few weeks and let GOR level out a bit and have the players already built their decks. There will still be those looking for shocks but not as many and prices should drop. When I bought my shocks a few years ago they were between 20-25 bucks each. RTR dropped the prices afterwards (which angered me as I had paid more than I should if I waited) and now with GOR throwing more into the secondary market you should be able to get them for not much more than 10 bucks. (So I guess 5-6 euros)
The lowest point for the GRN Shocks (at least in the short term) will most likely be right before the second Ravnica block is released. The largest increase in supply will be from players drafting, and since all sets are now drafted separately, that means new packs of GRN will rapidly stop being opened once we move on to a new limited format.
If you feel like waiting it out, you might be able to pick them up even cheaper right as they rotate out of Standard, but that won't be for awhile.
I don't think $3-5 is out of the question, especially after the set's been out a while. These sets are going to have a massive print run. Prices of the originals went way down with RtR block, and neither really spiked after they rotated. I can't wait to scoop these up.
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Wtf dude? My concrete problem is not having enough time to keep building new decks every week so it's important for me to have decks standing at the ready. I also don't have the money to just willy nilly buy whatever I want when I want so I'm solving this in large part by playing with proxies of cards that I already own. But I'd rather not have to, so if a little preplanning would enable me to acquire some more at a decent price MAYBE I don't need to proxy them as much.
Maybe you're so affluent that you can buy whatever you want whenever you want and you don't need to mind (future) card prices in order to build up and/or maintain a decent collection. But for many of us, the fact that Magic turned into some sort of stock market except you can play a game with your shares is an unfortunate but real fact of life we cannot ignore.
So please allow me to apologize on behalf of all the impoverished magic players that you had to read about issues that do not exist for you even though you chose to open a thread that doesn't really hide what it's about anyway.
I would hazard a guess of around 2-3 weeks, if typical price patterns and RTR history shows. Some skeptical part of me isn't too confident that the new set will sell as well as people think because of a combination of factors (we may (or may not) have just passed one of the weakest Standards in terms of player confidence and the other being I still believe RTR was over-opened even for its time and since this is a second reprint, I don't anticipate the same level of frenzy).
It's a hunch though, since I don't have access to the actual numbers of anything. One factor helps though, the fact it is a second reprint does mean even if the new set isn't opened as much as RTR, it also requires less for the prices to drop simply due to people who already have RTR shocks aren't likely to be chasing after these ones in particular, so demand is already lower than when RTR came out and only the people with the originals didn't need to care. And since I believe RTR to be over-opened, that technically drives demand down as well.
The floor for when they returned in RTR was around pack prices, so I honestly would not expect any difference this time around. It might go even lower, but I wouldn't hold too much hope in it because ultimately people do value lands, so I would imagine past some point people would rather keep their excess copies and just wait for the eventual price increase. For something as reputable as shocklands, I wouldn't be surprised if pack prices were a hard floor for their pricing.
In addition to what people are saying above, we do not know if Challenger decks will include Shocks. If yes, the price will plummet on the reprinted shocks. If not, the price will spike as more people are playing competitive decks and need to buy shocklands to play them optimally.
In addition to what people are saying above, we do not know if Challenger decks will include Shocks. If yes, the price will plummet on the reprinted shocks. If not, the price will spike as more people are playing competitive decks and need to buy shocklands to play them optimally.
They fell quite steadily last time they were in standard, so I would expect that trend to continue, even without Challenge deck reprints.
Last time they bottomed out right after Dragon's Maze came out. So I would guesstimate towards the end of Guilds since we don't know exactly how many sets this time.
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If you start seeing them for $2-$3, especially the non-blue, non-green ones (so Sacred Foundry in this set), I'd snap 'em up. I too anticipate that time will be two-three weeks post-release. I would definitely buy before Guilds of Ravnica comes out, as that will mark the point where prices will start creeping back up. I imagine they'll never be higher than today, but will probably level out to within 80% of their current pricing over time.
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Just checked the price of a Watery Grave from GRN, preorder price trend starts at €8,60 ($10). So it preordering them does not seem to be worth it, going on the expectations in this thread so far.
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I would definitely buy before Guilds of Ravnica comes out, as that will mark the point where prices will start creeping back up.
What makes you say this? It was exactly the opposite the last time they were reprinted : They fell throughout their standard run, then ticked back up after rotation.
If people are sick of reading about stuff just stop taking part. You have 100% control over what you read. Simic Ascendancy isn't going to get banned just because you didn't tell someone to shut up on the internet.
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Anyway, at the moment of writing they cost about €8-€12 a piece. Do people see them go to like €5 and if so, when?
What's a commander only player to do?
If my post has no tags, then i posted from my phone.
*I only play in a select playgroup, so no one ever has an issue.
It saves me so much money. On shocks alone I'd need 25 total to cover my decks, but using the staples folder I only need 10.
Guilds of Ravnica is going to have a huge print run. It could very well be the most printed Magic set to date, and I suspect the increased supply of shocklands will absolutely dwarf the newfound demand created by Standard. In fact, I suspect most of these lands will be going from somewhere between $2-$6, much like other lands in Standard are priced right now. (IIRC, Steam Vents was only $4 at one point back when it was printed during RTR.)
If I was interested in picking up shocklands, I would wait 2-3 weeks after the set releases to pick up my copies. Supply will peak by that point, and the prices will have leveled out after their initial over-inflated pre-order prices. Of course, if the pre-order prices get low enough, I wouldn't hesitate to just jump the gun and buy in.
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If you feel like waiting it out, you might be able to pick them up even cheaper right as they rotate out of Standard, but that won't be for awhile.
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Maybe you're so affluent that you can buy whatever you want whenever you want and you don't need to mind (future) card prices in order to build up and/or maintain a decent collection. But for many of us, the fact that Magic turned into some sort of stock market except you can play a game with your shares is an unfortunate but real fact of life we cannot ignore.
So please allow me to apologize on behalf of all the impoverished magic players that you had to read about issues that do not exist for you even though you chose to open a thread that doesn't really hide what it's about anyway.
If my post has no tags, then i posted from my phone.
It's a hunch though, since I don't have access to the actual numbers of anything. One factor helps though, the fact it is a second reprint does mean even if the new set isn't opened as much as RTR, it also requires less for the prices to drop simply due to people who already have RTR shocks aren't likely to be chasing after these ones in particular, so demand is already lower than when RTR came out and only the people with the originals didn't need to care. And since I believe RTR to be over-opened, that technically drives demand down as well.
The floor for when they returned in RTR was around pack prices, so I honestly would not expect any difference this time around. It might go even lower, but I wouldn't hold too much hope in it because ultimately people do value lands, so I would imagine past some point people would rather keep their excess copies and just wait for the eventual price increase. For something as reputable as shocklands, I wouldn't be surprised if pack prices were a hard floor for their pricing.
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Last time they bottomed out right after Dragon's Maze came out. So I would guesstimate towards the end of Guilds since we don't know exactly how many sets this time.
RCRDaretti: Superfriends Forever RCR
WGBDoran: Ent-mootWBG
GGGMultani: Group Bear HugGGG
GB(B/G)The Gitrog Monster: Dredgefall DurdleGB(B/G)
RGWGahiji, the Honored Group Hug MonsterRGW
UB(U/B)Yuriko, Ninja Trinket AggroUB(U/B)
WUBRGAtogatog: Assembling a OHKOWUBRG
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