Game 3, on the play versus Bant cotnrol. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
Game 1 on the play. You think your opponent is R/X agro because he said his last match took only 15 minutes and you see Searing Spear on bottom of his deck as he shuffles. You open with:
On the draw game 2 versus Naya. You boarded VNH, Olivia, conscripts, mortars, sever, and Appetite for brains for Flames, pillar, and all your Rakdos cackler.
LP, I'm checking your article out as well. Behind all of your swag is the brain of one of the most intelligent Magic players I've ever known. I guess that's one more thing for you to add to the wall of ego that is your Sally sig.
I can go with that. LK, you are the Mace Windu of red mages...cool, tempered logic in deliberation, but capable of just flat kicking tail when the situation warrants it.
I've only played mono-red for a few days, and I've been on Dos Rakis for about 3 months. I'll only answer the 2nd sample deck because I have more experience with the general lines of play and specific card interactions.
Game 1 on the play. You think your opponent is R/X agro because he said his last match took only 15 minutes and you see Searing Spear on bottom of his deck as he shuffles. You open with:
I'd mull the 1st hand automatically, because R/x aggro is a race from the start. Being on the play, it's my job to play threats and force him to have answers.
The second hand is a keep, and I'd run out the plays like this -
1st turn Blood Crypt, Stonewright
2nd turn Dragonskull Summit, Ash Zealot (soulbond) swing with both if available
3rd turn Swing with Ash Zealot alone, leave mana up. If land drop missed, dump mana into Zealot Pumps. If land drop hit, do not pump. Post-combat, play Hellhole Flailer unleashed. Leave Stonewright behind, no use sacrificing him with Falkenrath Aristocrat possibly coming soon).
4th turn pray for land drop - If 4th land drop hit, swing with Hellhole Flailer and leave mana up. If Hellhole Flailer is hit with a burn spell, fling him. If the opponent takes the hit, play Falkenrath Aristocrat post-combat. The opponent is likely to play some sort of tap-out Hellrider shenanigans next turn, so I use Hellhole Flailer or Stonewright for my sacrifice target if the opponent presents an alpha strike.
I will never play a Falkenrath Aristocrat onto an empty board vs. R/x aggro post-combat because even a stiff breeze can kill her.
On the draw game 2 versus Naya. You boarded VNH, Olivia, conscripts, mortars, sever, and Appetite for brains for Flames, pillar, and all your Rakdos cackler.
Feel free to come up with your own scenarios since mine are possibly terrible. DISCUSS.
I keep this hand. We've boarded out our pillars, so there's no way that we can kill a turn 1 mana dork. Naya is generally going to try to ramp out some sort of Loxodon Smiter nonsense on T2, which can be removed easily by Mizzium Mortars.
If they farseek on T2 instead, I play a Thrill-Kill Assassin (not unleashed) to block whatever nonsense they try to pull off.
If we hit a T3 black source, VNH comes out to stall for us. It's tempting to play a T4 Olivia, but I wouldn't unless they have a significant board presence that I need to deal with. Naya can reasonably include Searing Spear in the deck, so running her out without ping mana is very risky.
Yes! I was about to do this myself, except I didn't really have actual scenarios so it turned out much better this way Let the learnings begin.
If anyone has general rules of thumb for what to look for in a starting hand, I'd suggest re-posting them in the OP. In fact I'll rebel anyway if you don't think this would be useful and will post them at the top of this post
As soon as I have some free time I'll put together a spreadsheet I thought about that might help the thought process, I'll make sure I share it when it's done.
Hand 1: Mulligan. Just one more land and it'd be a really good hand, but I wouldn't risk keeping a one lander. Even on the draw, even in my 24 land deck. This one runs 22, no way. If I kept because I was feeling particularly baller, I'm pretty sure Noble leads.
_
Hand 2: Mulligan. Way too weak to a single burn spell and I hate having to draw into action. Stonewright and Lightning Mauler both become terrible cards if a single one of them dies. If it was on the draw though, I think it'd be playable.
Though... for some reason every time I play Red mirrors with anyone, they are more occupied with trying to race me than just killing my dudes and stabilizing even if they have the burn, so this hand is kind of playable. Especially if people pick up this build where the burn is all expensive.
_
Hand 3: Keep. I'm okay with that. Just seems like a decent hand, you could try to mulligan for better but that's trying your luck at that point. It's not one of those hands you're happy to keep but you know it's easy to regret if you mulligan.
_
Hand 4: I didn't, but I wouldn't (though I play FNMs so the impact is pretty low). I suppose objectively I should, it's a really luck-based hand.
Yes! I was about to do this myself, except I didn't really have actual scenarios so it turned out much better this way Let the learnings begin.
If anyone has general rules of thumb for what to look for in a starting hand, I'd suggest re-posting them in the OP. In fact I'll rebel anyway if you don't think this would be useful and will post them at the top of this post
As soon as I have some free time I'll put together a spreadsheet I thought about that might help the thought process, I'll make sure I share it when it's done.
Now to think about those scenarios of yours...
I made this thread specifically because you brought it up. Anything that you come up with will be added to the OP, space permitting.
LP, I'm checking your article out as well. Behind all of your swag is the brain of one of the most intelligent Magic players I've ever known. I guess that's one more thing for you to add to the wall of ego that is your Sally sig.
I can go with that. LK, you are the Mace Windu of red mages...cool, tempered logic in deliberation, but capable of just flat kicking tail when the situation warrants it.
Game 3, on the play versus Bant control. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
Game 1 on the play. You think your opponent is R/X agro because he said his last match took only 15 minutes and you see Searing Spear on bottom of his deck as he shuffles. You open with:
On the draw game 2 versus Naya. You boarded VNH, Olivia, conscripts, mortars, sever, and Appetite for brains for Flames, pillar, and all your Rakdos cackler.
Feel free to come up with your own scenarios since mine are possibly terrible. DISCUSS.
I only play mono-red so that's what I'll talk about.
The first hand is a mull because despite the abundance of 1-drops there's no assurance that you'll draw the second land. (I always mull 1 land hands, failure to do so has cost me far too many games)
The second hand is a keep. It has removal, creatures (albeit fragile ones) and enough land. Personally if I were running that deck I would have left in the volleys and taken out the lightning maulers as they're just so susceptible to flames blowouts.
The third hand is a solid hand. I think that some people would be greedy and mull down to a more aggressive hand but you have multiple threats and multiple answers to their stall cards. I'd keep it.
(I missed that it was for the same matchup as hand three but I already typed all this) (I'd mull it for reasons stated below)
For the fourth hand I think it depends. You didn't specify who was on the play/draw and I think my answer depends on that. You have two dead cards in your hand as it is, essentially making it so that you have a four card hand if you don't draw into a mountain. (Cackler, Mortars, Mountain, Crucible) On the play I'd probably mull it because if I don't hit a mountain half my hand is dead and likely not nearly aggressive enough. On the draw I might take a risk and keep it. You're more likely to draw into either a mountain or something that doesn't need two mountains to play.
LP, I'm checking your article out as well. Behind all of your swag is the brain of one of the most intelligent Magic players I've ever known. I guess that's one more thing for you to add to the wall of ego that is your Sally sig.
I can go with that. LK, you are the Mace Windu of red mages...cool, tempered logic in deliberation, but capable of just flat kicking tail when the situation warrants it.
Assume a standard Dos Rakis build and the following opening hand on the play vs an unknown opponent.
Dragonskull Summit, Dragonskull Summit, Ash Zealot, Knight of Infamy, Falkenrath Aristocrat, Searing Spear, Pillar of Flame
Keep or mull? I keep it, personally, but I can understand the temptation to throw it back because of the awkward mana.
I ask because I got this once in an 8 man and lost game 1 vs zombies. I drew my other 2 Dragonskull Summits on the next 2 turns. Super low odds of that happening, so I'm curious if I made the right keep and I'm trying to not be results oriented.
I want to say mull, based on a bad loss I took recently with basically that same opener but, looking at it, it seems workable. If we get a t2 mountain/swamp/crypt then we're looking pretty good.
1. Amazing idea for a thread. Huge props to LP and Fax for the idea and implementation, this is going to be an awesome resource. I am going to go though some of my game logs on MODO and dig up some tricky decisions.
2. I am more willing to keep loosely than most players ~ I probably lean to heavily on my perceived ability to play through bad draws than I should.
Game 3, on the play versus Bant cotnrol. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
There are a lot of considerations here as the hand is fringe. The first are foremost consideration is that the hand has only 1 land. That is a problem. Even if I draw another land, Brimstone Volley and especially Hellrider are basically blanks ~ I need to draw many more land to cast either. On the other hand, I do have the triple 1 drop draw ~ the best possible against many decks. Of course, this draw is much weaker if I don't immediately hit a red mana off the top, because playing a Cackler on turn 3 is pretty horrid. I have 20 red sources to hit with one draw step, which is 20/53 or 37.75%. That doesn't feel like a winning proposition. With the hand being very possibly a '5 carder' due to the two blanks, I would throw this back.
That the opponent is unknown doesn't affect my decision ~ this deck's plan in Game 1 is always to aggro the opponent as it lacks controlling elements, so my only real considerations are 'how fast is my clock' and 'how interactive is the hand'. This hand looks like it has a fast clock, due to the triple 1 drops, but that is illusory ~ if you don't immediately hit a mountain, it is very slow, especially on the draw where your opponent has more opportunity to interact before you can do damage.
Interestingly, if one of the Cacklers was a Lightning Mauler the hand improves significantly as you can now afford to miss the first land drop and/or draw the Hellion Crucible. That about 40% to hit on each of your next two draws (64% cumulative). That is significantly better, but I think I would still mulligan. I am on the draw which does somewhat compensate.
Game 2 vs. Mono Red
Now that I am in a more controlling role, this is an incredibly easy keep. I hav eenough interaction to deal with their early threats, and even a clock of my own (Mauler + Stonewright is reasonably threatening). Most importantly, I have three land, so I can cast everything in my hand, a Searing Spear for their Hellrider and Flames of the Firebrand + Hellion Crucible ~ both are key cards in the matchup. Very, very easy keep for me, given how I approach the mirror.
Game 3 vs. Bant Control
The first thing I do is ask myself why Reckless Waif is in my deck at all ~ if they're not good here they're not good anywhere. I should probably fix that when I get home.
I keep the hand. It isn't as aggressive as I would like, but it has all the land I need, some threats and some interaction. It isn't an amazing hand, but I can realistically play everything in it when I need to. The hand lets me play a game of magic. Besides, I am on the play ~ the average 6 card hand is not as good as this hand (3 land + 4 threats is ideal, even if I would like different threats).
Great thread!
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Assume a standard Dos Rakis build and the following opening hand on the play vs an unknown opponent.
Dragonskull Summit, Dragonskull Summit, Ash Zealot, Knight of Infamy, Falkenrath Aristocrat, Searing Spear, Pillar of Flame
Keep or mull? I keep it, personally, but I can understand the temptation to throw it back because of the awkward mana.
I ask because I got this once in an 8 man and lost game 1 vs zombies. I drew my other 2 Dragonskull Summits on the next 2 turns. Super low odds of that happening, so I'm curious if I made the right keep and I'm trying to not be results oriented.
I mentally say "**** you deck" and snap keep that hand all day. You have the mana to play most of your spells(if not on time) you have pillar to slow down aggressive decks and when you hit four mana, you're cruising.
Regarding the hands from my example:
Mono-Red
Hand 1 is borderline due to being a one lander, but I keep. Turn 1 noble can beat people itself. If you draw a land, you're jamming, otherwise, you still get 4 power worth of clock on the board on turn 2 which is fine. The worst thing that can happen is your opponent going Dork>Hiearch, but I think your hand is good enough against everything else. (edit: Misread my own scenario and thought this was on the play. I'd keep on the play, and flip a coin if on the draw. I'd literally flip a coin.)
Hand 2 I also keep. You can curve 1 to 2 and you have flames and crucible in hand, two of the better cards in the mirror. Pretty easy keep.
Hand 3 is a keep for me. You really want a one-drop versus bant and if you don't hit lands, your hand is pretty weak, but you have 11 haste guys(including stonewright) that you can draw into plus your 20 remaining lands so that's well over half your deck as REALLY live draws, and that number is effectively doubled since your turn two play is going to be Ash.
Hand 4 is probably a mulligan. If it were the finals of a PTQ, it would be tempting to keep because mulling into oblivion would be a soul-crushing way to exit, but I've mulled a lot of mediocre six card hands into success and I just feel the mull is the correct play. Outside of 1 twenty mountains, your only reasonable draws are lightning mauler and...that's it really. If you draw a one drop, you obviously play it but it's going to be mostly disappointing. The biggest issue is that since you're playing against bant, they play azorius charm which can straight up beat this hand cold if played early enough. SHIP.
For the Rakdos example, I do everything Ham posted. Unfortunately, the first hand is one I had AND have drawn a lot. Against not-red agro, it's actually very playable and after mulling to 5, I find out my opponent is Flash. Frown. That's actually an incredible hand versus flash since they can't kill your dragon ever and crucible is fairly strong in the mid-lategame.
LP, I'm checking your article out as well. Behind all of your swag is the brain of one of the most intelligent Magic players I've ever known. I guess that's one more thing for you to add to the wall of ego that is your Sally sig.
I can go with that. LK, you are the Mace Windu of red mages...cool, tempered logic in deliberation, but capable of just flat kicking tail when the situation warrants it.
I actually think Koopa created a thread last season called Competitive Scenarios which was WAY AWESOME. It had mull decisions, board states etc. The only thing was it was like, 2 scenarios a week. I wanted to up the ante.
LP, I'm checking your article out as well. Behind all of your swag is the brain of one of the most intelligent Magic players I've ever known. I guess that's one more thing for you to add to the wall of ego that is your Sally sig.
I can go with that. LK, you are the Mace Windu of red mages...cool, tempered logic in deliberation, but capable of just flat kicking tail when the situation warrants it.
Game 3, on the play versus Bant cotnrol. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
Same as the others, I would only quote on the 1st one since i've only been playing mono-red.
1st hand: Auto-mull. The only 1-landers I would consider keeping are hands with multiple nobles, and is still not a sure thing.
2nd hand: I'll keep. stonewrights and LM are good enough threats to keep. and since you are in "control-mode" the removal cards you've drawn are good against any aggro deck
3rd hand:I'll keep. It has threats and reach. If you draw a 1 drop then this hand becomes solid.
Thanks to the TS. This is another great resource for us red mages. :cheers::shots:
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“Of course you should fight fire with fire. You should fight everything with fire." —Jaya Ballard, task mage
Game 3, on the play versus Bant cotnrol. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
Hand 1: Don't keep. It's just too greedy. Sometimes you will get there and hit that one land, but if you don't you start of so slowly. Besides, you cannot at all count on being able to cast hellrider or brimstone volley, so the hand might as well be 5 cards. Keeping something like this may net you a game once in a while, but overall your expected value isn't very good.
Hand 2: Keep. You have enough land to play each spell in your hand, and most of the spells in your deck. Not only that, but you have an on the play flames of the firebrand which can wreck your opponent, and a searing spear to snipe a hellrider. Lightning mauler and stonewright aren't the most ideal cards here, but they're threats your opponent will have to deal with.
Hand 3: I'd keep the first hand. I'm not really digging the brimstone volley here, but having enough land to cast most of your spells, and having some decent threats is good enough. You can play this hand. Mulling here is just hoping to get lucky with your next hand.
Hand 4 (if you mulled): This one's a fairly tough choice. You are completely relying on hitting a mountain for your hand to win, and you're on the play. It would be tempting to keep, but I think you have to mull, because two of the cards in your hand that you need to win you can't cast.
Assume a standard Dos Rakis build and the following opening hand on the play vs an unknown opponent.
Dragonskull Summit, Dragonskull Summit, Ash Zealot, Knight of Infamy, Falkenrath Aristocrat, Searing Spear, Pillar of Flame
Keep or mull? I keep it, personally, but I can understand the temptation to throw it back because of the awkward mana.
I ask because I got this once in an 8 man and lost game 1 vs zombies. I drew my other 2 Dragonskull Summits on the next 2 turns. Super low odds of that happening, so I'm curious if I made the right keep and I'm trying to not be results oriented.
This is an easy keep. Lands coming in tapped don't scare me much. If I'm against a control deck, they aren't going to do anything turn 1 either. If they have a T1 play, I can kill it next turn, then start my offense.
I had a hand similar to this in practice recently. Triple Dragonskull, Zealot, Aristocrat, Knight of Infamy, Pillar, on the play. My first draw was a Mountain, and I won on turn 5.
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My Decks:
Innistrad-RTR
UWR Flash: 7-1, 1 FNM Win-A-Box
Rakdos Aggro: 20-8
UW Flash: 11-5
Boros Aggro: 3-1
Jund: 42-12-3, 4 TNM Win-A-Box, 2 Koopa Standard IQs, Gatecrash Game Day Champion, M14 Game Day Champion
It's pretty borderline and I really wish either the Volley or Hellrider was a 2 drop or another 1 mana spell as that would make this a much easier keep. On the draw though I think this is reasonable to keep - you have two draw steps to hit your second land before you would be punished (and with 21 lands still in your deck you're actually favored to draw one in two draw steps with a 64% chance of seeing one by then). If you miss you at least have plays for the first 3 turns (granted turn 3 Cackler isn't ideal). I would mull this hand on the play though since you only get one drawstep then and are much less likely to get there.
Game 2 on the play in the mono-red mirror. You cut Brimstone Volleys and a Zealos Conscripts for your Mortars, flames and more Pilars.
Well, if I had to maindeck Lightning Mauler (gun against my head) it would never still be in my deck for sideboarded games in the mono-red mirror and Stonewright is something I usually take out as well. But I would keep this hand, it has reasonable curve, two removal spells (including a Flames) and a Crucible to let us win in the case both sides stall out. This hand gets beaten up pretty badly by an opposing Flames though which is why I would be boarding out the two creatures in our hand normally.
Game 3, on the play versus Bant cotnrol. It's the finals of a PTQ(for drama). In game 2 your opponent was on the creature plan with faithmenders, centaur healers and restoration angels so you decide to bring in mortars and thunderbolts for G3 instead of reckless waifs taking out pillars a brimstone volley and a lightning mauler. Your Hand.
I'd keep but I probably wouldn't be too happy about it. Our only early action is the Ash Zealot which can be walled by a single Augur or Centaur so we'd like to see some other low drops, but at the same time we also want to draw lands so we can actually cast the Hellrider and Conscripts later. If they open up with Farseek into Faithmender into Thragtusk we pretty much just lose with this hand as there's no way we'll get them low enough to come back but sometimes that's the way it goes.
If you mulled, this is your six. Do you keep this or go to five.
Well I didn't mull but I'll answer this one anyways. This hand is also underwhelming. I would probably mull this, since you're pretty much relying on hitting a mountain or a 1 drop/non-Zealot 2 drop on your first draw step for things to go well with this hand. If you draw more burn/hellriders/zealots/conscripts then your offence consists of merely a Cackler which will never be good enough.
I keep it. With 23 lands left in the deck, I stand a 23/53 chance of drawing a 2nd land (43.4%). Even If I don't hit my land drops, I have plays on turns 2, 3 and 4.
I have a mana sink and aggressive creatures who demand answers. Even if Falkenrath Aristocrat comes late, the little guys should have softened up my opponent by then.
Keep or draw? If you keep, do you play noble or cackler first?
Given that I have 4 turns before I punished on keeping a 1-lander, I have the tendency to keep this hand. I will also play the Noble first. Jund and Naya midrange decks tend to keep hands that include a mana dork, or a Farseek. Zombie decks and other R/x aggro would most likely Pillar the noble if they have it in their hand.
I'm posting this before reading your analysis.
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I am passionate, yet I am logical. The fire within me burns, but I am also patient to a point. I am with the Fires of Salvation
I'd play the Cackler unleashed on turn 1. There is no 1-drop in standard that can kill a Cackler without trading, and the Cackler swings into a Deathrite Shaman without fear. The Cackler also represents more damage than the noble until turn 4 where the noble takes over. If the opponent has removal, I'd rather they use it on a cackler.
I keep it. With 23 lands left in the deck, I stand a 23/53 chance of drawing a 2nd land (43.4%). Even If I don't hit my land drops, I have plays on turns 2, 3 and 4.
I have a mana sink and aggressive creatures who demand answers. Even if Falkenrath Aristocrat comes late, the little guys should have softened up my opponent by then.
Keep or draw? If you keep, do you play noble or cackler first?
mull, 1 land on the play doesn't give you many chances to draw extra lands, and you wanna curve in to 4 lands with a midrange build not get stuck at 2 lands.If you get stuck on lands which is probable, your drops can get outclassed by bigger drops and you hit a stall which you can't go over the top cuz you got no lands.. I only play 1 land hands if i have multiple one-drops on the draw and sometimes i regret that but usually I'm forced to do that cuz i already mulled to 6 or less and mulligan and again is not really an option.
I keep it. With 23 lands left in the deck, I stand a 23/53 chance of drawing a 2nd land (43.4%). Even If I don't hit my land drops, I have plays on turns 2, 3 and 4.
I have a mana sink and aggressive creatures who demand answers. Even if Falkenrath Aristocrat comes late, the little guys should have softened up my opponent by then.
Keep or draw? If you keep, do you play noble or cackler first?
Even with the amount of cards that can be played with this hand, I'd mulligan it. I can't bring myself to keep 1-land hands. I've played too many times where I got stranded on 1 land to risk it again.
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The world is on fire
and you are here to stay and burn with me.
I'd keep them all. Seriously. I play a little loose but my my first thought every time was keep. I always go with my gut because I believe if you "think too long then you must be wrong."
Assuming this Deck:
2 Stonewright
4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Rakdos Cackler
4 Ash Zealot
2 Rakdos Shred-Freak
4 Lightning Mauler
3 Pyreheart Wolf
4 Hellrider
2 Zealous Conscripts
2 Pillar of Flame
3 Searing Spear
4 Brimstone Volley
21 Mountain
1 Hellion Crucible
4 Reckless Waif
2 Thunderbolt
1 Flames of the Firebrand
2 Mizzium Mortars
2 Pillar of Flame
3 Traitorous Blood
Game one, unknown opponent, draw. Do you keep? What's the play?
Sample Deck #2.
4 Rakdos Cackler
2 Stonewright
4 Ash Zealot
4 Thrill-Kill Assassin
3 Hellhole Flailer
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
3 Thundermaw Hellkite
Spells:
4 Searing Spear
3 Ultimate Price
2 Flames of the Firebrand
2 Pillar of Flame
4 Blood Crypt
4 Dragonskull Summit
3 Cavern of Souls
2 Rakdos Guildgate
2 Hellion Crucible
10 Mountain
2 Pithing Needle
1 Olivia Voldaren
2 Vampire Nighthawk
1 Zealous Conscripts
2 Rakdos Charm
3 Slaughter Games
2 Mizzium Mortars
1 Sever the Bloodline
1 Appetite for Brains
Game 1 on the play. You think your opponent is R/X agro because he said his last match took only 15 minutes and you see Searing Spear on bottom of his deck as he shuffles. You open with:
On the draw game 2 versus Naya. You boarded VNH, Olivia, conscripts, mortars, sever, and Appetite for brains for Flames, pillar, and all your Rakdos cackler.
Feel free to come up with your own scenarios since mine are possibly terrible. DISCUSS.
I'd mull the 1st hand automatically, because R/x aggro is a race from the start. Being on the play, it's my job to play threats and force him to have answers.
The second hand is a keep, and I'd run out the plays like this -
1st turn Blood Crypt, Stonewright
2nd turn Dragonskull Summit, Ash Zealot (soulbond) swing with both if available
3rd turn Swing with Ash Zealot alone, leave mana up. If land drop missed, dump mana into Zealot Pumps. If land drop hit, do not pump. Post-combat, play Hellhole Flailer unleashed. Leave Stonewright behind, no use sacrificing him with Falkenrath Aristocrat possibly coming soon).
4th turn pray for land drop - If 4th land drop hit, swing with Hellhole Flailer and leave mana up. If Hellhole Flailer is hit with a burn spell, fling him. If the opponent takes the hit, play Falkenrath Aristocrat post-combat. The opponent is likely to play some sort of tap-out Hellrider shenanigans next turn, so I use Hellhole Flailer or Stonewright for my sacrifice target if the opponent presents an alpha strike.
I will never play a Falkenrath Aristocrat onto an empty board vs. R/x aggro post-combat because even a stiff breeze can kill her.
I keep this hand. We've boarded out our pillars, so there's no way that we can kill a turn 1 mana dork. Naya is generally going to try to ramp out some sort of Loxodon Smiter nonsense on T2, which can be removed easily by Mizzium Mortars.
If they farseek on T2 instead, I play a Thrill-Kill Assassin (not unleashed) to block whatever nonsense they try to pull off.
If we hit a T3 black source, VNH comes out to stall for us. It's tempting to play a T4 Olivia, but I wouldn't unless they have a significant board presence that I need to deal with. Naya can reasonably include Searing Spear in the deck, so running her out without ping mana is very risky.
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Take the Ham Challenge.
If anyone has general rules of thumb for what to look for in a starting hand, I'd suggest re-posting them in the OP. In fact I'll rebel anyway if you don't think this would be useful and will post them at the top of this post
As soon as I have some free time I'll put together a spreadsheet I thought about that might help the thought process, I'll make sure I share it when it's done.
Now to think about those scenarios of yours...
R Reach out and torch someone R
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Hand 1: Mulligan. Just one more land and it'd be a really good hand, but I wouldn't risk keeping a one lander. Even on the draw, even in my 24 land deck. This one runs 22, no way. If I kept because I was feeling particularly baller, I'm pretty sure Noble leads.
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Hand 2: Mulligan. Way too weak to a single burn spell and I hate having to draw into action. Stonewright and Lightning Mauler both become terrible cards if a single one of them dies. If it was on the draw though, I think it'd be playable.
Though... for some reason every time I play Red mirrors with anyone, they are more occupied with trying to race me than just killing my dudes and stabilizing even if they have the burn, so this hand is kind of playable. Especially if people pick up this build where the burn is all expensive.
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Hand 3: Keep. I'm okay with that. Just seems like a decent hand, you could try to mulligan for better but that's trying your luck at that point. It's not one of those hands you're happy to keep but you know it's easy to regret if you mulligan.
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Hand 4: I didn't, but I wouldn't (though I play FNMs so the impact is pretty low). I suppose objectively I should, it's a really luck-based hand.
I made this thread specifically because you brought it up. Anything that you come up with will be added to the OP, space permitting.
I only play mono-red so that's what I'll talk about.
The first hand is a mull because despite the abundance of 1-drops there's no assurance that you'll draw the second land. (I always mull 1 land hands, failure to do so has cost me far too many games)
The second hand is a keep. It has removal, creatures (albeit fragile ones) and enough land. Personally if I were running that deck I would have left in the volleys and taken out the lightning maulers as they're just so susceptible to flames blowouts.
The third hand is a solid hand. I think that some people would be greedy and mull down to a more aggressive hand but you have multiple threats and multiple answers to their stall cards. I'd keep it.
(I missed that it was for the same matchup as hand three but I already typed all this) (I'd mull it for reasons stated below)
For the fourth hand I think it depends. You didn't specify who was on the play/draw and I think my answer depends on that. You have two dead cards in your hand as it is, essentially making it so that you have a four card hand if you don't draw into a mountain. (Cackler, Mortars, Mountain, Crucible) On the play I'd probably mull it because if I don't hit a mountain half my hand is dead and likely not nearly aggressive enough. On the draw I might take a risk and keep it. You're more likely to draw into either a mountain or something that doesn't need two mountains to play.
Keep or mull? I keep it, personally, but I can understand the temptation to throw it back because of the awkward mana.
I ask because I got this once in an 8 man and lost game 1 vs zombies. I drew my other 2 Dragonskull Summits on the next 2 turns. Super low odds of that happening, so I'm curious if I made the right keep and I'm trying to not be results oriented.
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I want to say mull, based on a bad loss I took recently with basically that same opener but, looking at it, it seems workable. If we get a t2 mountain/swamp/crypt then we're looking pretty good.
1. Amazing idea for a thread. Huge props to LP and Fax for the idea and implementation, this is going to be an awesome resource. I am going to go though some of my game logs on MODO and dig up some tricky decisions.
2. I am more willing to keep loosely than most players ~ I probably lean to heavily on my perceived ability to play through bad draws than I should.
Game 1 vs. Unknown
There are a lot of considerations here as the hand is fringe. The first are foremost consideration is that the hand has only 1 land. That is a problem. Even if I draw another land, Brimstone Volley and especially Hellrider are basically blanks ~ I need to draw many more land to cast either. On the other hand, I do have the triple 1 drop draw ~ the best possible against many decks. Of course, this draw is much weaker if I don't immediately hit a red mana off the top, because playing a Cackler on turn 3 is pretty horrid. I have 20 red sources to hit with one draw step, which is 20/53 or 37.75%. That doesn't feel like a winning proposition. With the hand being very possibly a '5 carder' due to the two blanks, I would throw this back.
That the opponent is unknown doesn't affect my decision ~ this deck's plan in Game 1 is always to aggro the opponent as it lacks controlling elements, so my only real considerations are 'how fast is my clock' and 'how interactive is the hand'. This hand looks like it has a fast clock, due to the triple 1 drops, but that is illusory ~ if you don't immediately hit a mountain, it is very slow, especially on the draw where your opponent has more opportunity to interact before you can do damage.
Interestingly, if one of the Cacklers was a Lightning Mauler the hand improves significantly as you can now afford to miss the first land drop and/or draw the Hellion Crucible. That about 40% to hit on each of your next two draws (64% cumulative). That is significantly better, but I think I would still mulligan. I am on the draw which does somewhat compensate.
Game 2 vs. Mono Red
Now that I am in a more controlling role, this is an incredibly easy keep. I hav eenough interaction to deal with their early threats, and even a clock of my own (Mauler + Stonewright is reasonably threatening). Most importantly, I have three land, so I can cast everything in my hand, a Searing Spear for their Hellrider and Flames of the Firebrand + Hellion Crucible ~ both are key cards in the matchup. Very, very easy keep for me, given how I approach the mirror.
Game 3 vs. Bant Control
The first thing I do is ask myself why Reckless Waif is in my deck at all ~ if they're not good here they're not good anywhere. I should probably fix that when I get home.
I keep the hand. It isn't as aggressive as I would like, but it has all the land I need, some threats and some interaction. It isn't an amazing hand, but I can realistically play everything in it when I need to. The hand lets me play a game of magic. Besides, I am on the play ~ the average 6 card hand is not as good as this hand (3 land + 4 threats is ideal, even if I would like different threats).
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I mentally say "**** you deck" and snap keep that hand all day. You have the mana to play most of your spells(if not on time) you have pillar to slow down aggressive decks and when you hit four mana, you're cruising.
Regarding the hands from my example:
Mono-Red
Hand 1 is borderline due to being a one lander, but I keep. Turn 1 noble can beat people itself. If you draw a land, you're jamming, otherwise, you still get 4 power worth of clock on the board on turn 2 which is fine. The worst thing that can happen is your opponent going Dork>Hiearch, but I think your hand is good enough against everything else. (edit: Misread my own scenario and thought this was on the play. I'd keep on the play, and flip a coin if on the draw. I'd literally flip a coin.)
Hand 2 I also keep. You can curve 1 to 2 and you have flames and crucible in hand, two of the better cards in the mirror. Pretty easy keep.
Hand 3 is a keep for me. You really want a one-drop versus bant and if you don't hit lands, your hand is pretty weak, but you have 11 haste guys(including stonewright) that you can draw into plus your 20 remaining lands so that's well over half your deck as REALLY live draws, and that number is effectively doubled since your turn two play is going to be Ash.
Hand 4 is probably a mulligan. If it were the finals of a PTQ, it would be tempting to keep because mulling into oblivion would be a soul-crushing way to exit, but I've mulled a lot of mediocre six card hands into success and I just feel the mull is the correct play. Outside of 1 twenty mountains, your only reasonable draws are lightning mauler and...that's it really. If you draw a one drop, you obviously play it but it's going to be mostly disappointing. The biggest issue is that since you're playing against bant, they play azorius charm which can straight up beat this hand cold if played early enough. SHIP.
For the Rakdos example, I do everything Ham posted. Unfortunately, the first hand is one I had AND have drawn a lot. Against not-red agro, it's actually very playable and after mulling to 5, I find out my opponent is Flash. Frown. That's actually an incredible hand versus flash since they can't kill your dragon ever and crucible is fairly strong in the mid-lategame.
Deck 1 Game 2: Keep. I've got burn to get through his early defenders and two mana sinks. It won't get much better.
Deck 1 Game 3: Keep. Two draws to find another land, a burn spell and good plays once I make my land drops.
Deck 1 Game 3 Mulligan: Keep. Mulling to five on the play, we're likely to lose. This hand is why I didn't ship the last one. ;-)
Deck 2 Game 1: Mull. As nice as it is to know I could cast my dragon on curve, it's nicer to know that I have something to do before turn 5.
Deck 2 Game 1 Mulligan: Keep. That's a great hand!
Deck 2 Game 2: Keep. I've got one black source, so my hand is partially live. And I've got a few things to do while I wait to draw land.
Innistrad-RTR
UWR Flash: 7-1, 1 FNM Win-A-Box
Rakdos Aggro: 20-8
UW Flash: 11-5
Boros Aggro: 3-1
Jund: 42-12-3, 4 TNM Win-A-Box, 2 Koopa Standard IQs, Gatecrash Game Day Champion, M14 Game Day Champion
RTR - Theros
RDW 6-0 1 TNM Win-A-Box
Esper Control 7-4
Boros Burn 3-1
RW Devotion 3-1
Monoblack Devotion 8-4
Same as the others, I would only quote on the 1st one since i've only been playing mono-red.
1st hand: Auto-mull. The only 1-landers I would consider keeping are hands with multiple nobles, and is still not a sure thing.
2nd hand: I'll keep. stonewrights and LM are good enough threats to keep. and since you are in "control-mode" the removal cards you've drawn are good against any aggro deck
3rd hand:I'll keep. It has threats and reach. If you draw a 1 drop then this hand becomes solid.
Thanks to the TS. This is another great resource for us red mages. :cheers::shots:
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Hand 1: Don't keep. It's just too greedy. Sometimes you will get there and hit that one land, but if you don't you start of so slowly. Besides, you cannot at all count on being able to cast hellrider or brimstone volley, so the hand might as well be 5 cards. Keeping something like this may net you a game once in a while, but overall your expected value isn't very good.
Hand 2: Keep. You have enough land to play each spell in your hand, and most of the spells in your deck. Not only that, but you have an on the play flames of the firebrand which can wreck your opponent, and a searing spear to snipe a hellrider. Lightning mauler and stonewright aren't the most ideal cards here, but they're threats your opponent will have to deal with.
Hand 3: I'd keep the first hand. I'm not really digging the brimstone volley here, but having enough land to cast most of your spells, and having some decent threats is good enough. You can play this hand. Mulling here is just hoping to get lucky with your next hand.
Hand 4 (if you mulled): This one's a fairly tough choice. You are completely relying on hitting a mountain for your hand to win, and you're on the play. It would be tempting to keep, but I think you have to mull, because two of the cards in your hand that you need to win you can't cast.
This is an easy keep. Lands coming in tapped don't scare me much. If I'm against a control deck, they aren't going to do anything turn 1 either. If they have a T1 play, I can kill it next turn, then start my offense.
I had a hand similar to this in practice recently. Triple Dragonskull, Zealot, Aristocrat, Knight of Infamy, Pillar, on the play. My first draw was a Mountain, and I won on turn 5.
Innistrad-RTR
UWR Flash: 7-1, 1 FNM Win-A-Box
Rakdos Aggro: 20-8
UW Flash: 11-5
Boros Aggro: 3-1
Jund: 42-12-3, 4 TNM Win-A-Box, 2 Koopa Standard IQs, Gatecrash Game Day Champion, M14 Game Day Champion
RTR - Theros
RDW 6-0 1 TNM Win-A-Box
Esper Control 7-4
Boros Burn 3-1
RW Devotion 3-1
Monoblack Devotion 8-4
It's pretty borderline and I really wish either the Volley or Hellrider was a 2 drop or another 1 mana spell as that would make this a much easier keep. On the draw though I think this is reasonable to keep - you have two draw steps to hit your second land before you would be punished (and with 21 lands still in your deck you're actually favored to draw one in two draw steps with a 64% chance of seeing one by then). If you miss you at least have plays for the first 3 turns (granted turn 3 Cackler isn't ideal). I would mull this hand on the play though since you only get one drawstep then and are much less likely to get there.
Well, if I had to maindeck Lightning Mauler (gun against my head) it would never still be in my deck for sideboarded games in the mono-red mirror and Stonewright is something I usually take out as well. But I would keep this hand, it has reasonable curve, two removal spells (including a Flames) and a Crucible to let us win in the case both sides stall out. This hand gets beaten up pretty badly by an opposing Flames though which is why I would be boarding out the two creatures in our hand normally.
I'd keep but I probably wouldn't be too happy about it. Our only early action is the Ash Zealot which can be walled by a single Augur or Centaur so we'd like to see some other low drops, but at the same time we also want to draw lands so we can actually cast the Hellrider and Conscripts later. If they open up with Farseek into Faithmender into Thragtusk we pretty much just lose with this hand as there's no way we'll get them low enough to come back but sometimes that's the way it goes.
Well I didn't mull but I'll answer this one anyways. This hand is also underwhelming. I would probably mull this, since you're pretty much relying on hitting a mountain or a 1 drop/non-Zealot 2 drop on your first draw step for things to go well with this hand. If you draw more burn/hellriders/zealots/conscripts then your offence consists of merely a Cackler which will never be good enough.
Game 1 on the play (24 land Dos Rakis) vs an unknown opponent:
Mountain, Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Cackler, Stromkirk Noble, Stonewright, Ash Zealot, Falkenrath Aristocrat.
My analysis in spoiler tag.
I keep it. With 23 lands left in the deck, I stand a 23/53 chance of drawing a 2nd land (43.4%). Even If I don't hit my land drops, I have plays on turns 2, 3 and 4.
I have a mana sink and aggressive creatures who demand answers. Even if Falkenrath Aristocrat comes late, the little guys should have softened up my opponent by then.
Keep or draw? If you keep, do you play noble or cackler first?
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mull, 1 land on the play doesn't give you many chances to draw extra lands, and you wanna curve in to 4 lands with a midrange build not get stuck at 2 lands.If you get stuck on lands which is probable, your drops can get outclassed by bigger drops and you hit a stall which you can't go over the top cuz you got no lands.. I only play 1 land hands if i have multiple one-drops on the draw and sometimes i regret that but usually I'm forced to do that cuz i already mulled to 6 or less and mulligan and again is not really an option.
Even with the amount of cards that can be played with this hand, I'd mulligan it. I can't bring myself to keep 1-land hands. I've played too many times where I got stranded on 1 land to risk it again.
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I'd keep them all. Seriously. I play a little loose but my my first thought every time was keep. I always go with my gut because I believe if you "think too long then you must be wrong."
4 Rakdos Cackler
3 Stonwright
4 Ash Zealot
4 Lightning Mauler
3 Pyreheart Wolf
4 Boros Reckoner
4 Hellrider
2 Pillar of Flame
2 Flames of the Firebrand
21 Mountain
1 Hellion Crucible
On the Play Game 1 vs Unknown Opponent.
If you Mulligan
Fires Of Salvation
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