Maybe I'm undervaluing the wrath on Feast of Succession itself, but betting on your opponent to not have even 10% of the cube by t6+ doesn't feel like good odds to me. Obviously this isn't the full story (holding up removal, using x/5s yourself, haste creatures played beforehand, death triggers, flash, etc.), but if a average deck has 2 ways to get the monarch immediately, they are 55% to have drawn 1 by t6.
Well, you said it already: if it's a haste creature you're worried about, they need to have not already played it by now. so that 55% is not remotely useful as a benchmark.
If you want to be picky about the numbers then lets even discount haste creatures entirely (which is probably similarly inaccurate). That's about 20 cards in your cube. Counting stuff in your cube outside of haste creatures + x/5+s that would also steal monarch after it's cast gives me a bit more than 20 cards (entirely ignoring manlands too). Including x/5+s (20ish), that's around 10% of your cube, which puts the number at >55% again if played spells average 10% of them. You can debate how much each card counts, but if Feast of Succession -> get monarch taken is a bad case 55% is ridiculously high. That's 55% on t6 too (where your opponent is even on the play!), so if you're not casting it on curve the higher chance you run into a Rhythm of the Wild or a Goblin Trenches.
Maybe I'm undervaluing the wrath on Feast of Succession itself, but betting on your opponent to not have even 10% of the cube by t6+ doesn't feel like good odds to me. Obviously this isn't the full story (holding up removal, using x/5s yourself, haste creatures played beforehand, death triggers, flash, etc.), but if a average deck has 2 ways to get the monarch immediately, they are 55% to have drawn 1 by t6.
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Great set: encore, monarch, and cascade are all mechanics we can use and the power level is pushed because it's commander. Lots of archetype cards that may show up down the line once they get more support. Bad set for Iwamori of the Open Fist though.
Confident they're good: Coastline Marauders - Big numbers + trample + recursion Gilt-Leaf Winnower - 5 mana conditional Nekrataals are pretty fair and good Halana, Kessig Ranger - Value engine on a reasonable body Volcanic Torrent - Encourages big red. Might honestly be unfair with any prior spells
Testing, probably good: Toggo, Goblin Weaponsmith - Good combination of interesting and powerful Boarding Party - Has basically no competition and red is a great cascade colour Araumi of the Dead Tide - I have no idea what deck wants this, but the text is good Tuya Bearclaw - Big numbers is a solid GR archetype, though missing trample isn't great Staunch Throneguard - Mainly interested for slot efficiency, but monarch is powerful enough to justify unimpressive stats
Annoyed Altisaur is fine, but it's so generic there's not really a reason to play it over the other green 6-7 drops that fill a niche.
Feast of Succession being incredibly bad against manlands and haste creatures while discouraging you playing creatures that can get a hit in makes me hesitant. I find monarch plays decently as long as you can reasonably take it back if you lose it, but I don't think most decks playing this will be able to do that.
Daring Saboteur is a pretty unimpressive downshift. Outside of pirate synergies I don't really think any deck is particularly happy to play it.
Impulsive Goblin is kind of novel. It does a bunch of things not particularly well, but it is 2 bodies and 2 treasures for red sac synergy for a fairly low cost on a versatile body.
I'm definitely testing Araumi of the Dead Tide, but I'm a bit hesitant about expensive sorcery speed tap abilities on defensive bodies in general. The quality of targets also varies wildly depending on whether you're the aggressor or defender, so it's hard to say how good they are. (Also curves into Tormod, the Desecrator and can make a zombie, then later activate + encore makes 2 tokens)
I know Tormod is one or more. Psychatog, escape, and Reassembling Skeleton + sac outlet can still net multiple tokens though since they can make things leave the graveyard multiple times (as opposed to reanimation/delve effects always netting 1 token). To clarify for escape: putting a card onto the stack and paying its cost happen at different times and both would trigger Tormod, so Tormod happens twice afaik.
I'm really not excited to play a 4 mana 4/2 + 2/2 that I probably can't play until t6. I'd only really want to play Tormod, the Desecrator with multiple things that make multiple tokens, but those are pretty spread out. Escape makes 2 (I'm pretty sure) but there's not a ton of cards with it, Pychatog works very well, and Rancor(edit: doesn't net tokens though)/Reassembling Skeleton + sac outlet works but is a 3 card combo. With sufficient combos he's probably pretty good, but that's a lot of setup for a fairly slow and fragile engine.
Fall from Favor is good, but I don't think removal + monarch makes for good gameplay.
I kinda like Staunch Throneguard. It's pretty similar in power level to the rest of the old non-Palace Jailer monarch cards and gives every colour access to monarch by itself.
Toggo, Goblin Weaponsmith is a pretty sweet card. Bad topdeck, but producing 2 mana shocks is a pretty powerful effect.
Dargo, the Shipwrecker seems pretty good as far as all in cards go. Curves out of any of the 2cmc make 2 dudes cards or Thraben Inspector for a 7/5 trampler on t3. Being able to cast it for R also opens up some neat stuff like Reckless Charge + Temur Battle Rage with low mana requirements. It's also not the worst if you play it as a midgame threat: 7/5 trample is big for 5 mana and it also functions as a one time board sac if it's needed.
Big fan of Coastline Marauders. At its best in a more midrangey shell, but still strong in aggro.
Merchant Raiders is pretty good, but most (all?) of the good pirates are lower cmc than it. Probably still worth it without deliberate support if your blue section wants it.
Kitesail Skirmisher might be worthwhile if we get more pirate tribal support. 1 toughness isn't great, but a 3 power flier for 4 with some offensive utility and a reasonable recursion cost is pretty close.
Halana seems really powerful. 2 kicker is probably expensive enough that it's not oppressive.
Best I can think of for Alena is dropping an Enigma Drake (or similar) for 6+ then playing Rolling Thunder (or similar), but that's far too narrow to justify an expensive fragile card. Turning Reckless Charge into a ritual is novel too I guess.
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Great set: encore, monarch, and cascade are all mechanics we can use and the power level is pushed because it's commander. Lots of archetype cards that may show up down the line once they get more support. Bad set for Iwamori of the Open Fist though.
Confident they're good:
Coastline Marauders - Big numbers + trample + recursion
Gilt-Leaf Winnower - 5 mana conditional Nekrataals are pretty fair and good
Halana, Kessig Ranger - Value engine on a reasonable body
Volcanic Torrent - Encourages big red. Might honestly be unfair with any prior spells
Testing, probably good:
Toggo, Goblin Weaponsmith - Good combination of interesting and powerful
Boarding Party - Has basically no competition and red is a great cascade colour
Araumi of the Dead Tide - I have no idea what deck wants this, but the text is good
Tuya Bearclaw - Big numbers is a solid GR archetype, though missing trample isn't great
Staunch Throneguard - Mainly interested for slot efficiency, but monarch is powerful enough to justify unimpressive stats
Might test at some point:
Juri, Master of the Revue - If RB aristocrats is on the menu
Dargo, the Shipwrecker - See above
Impulsive Pilferer - See above
Tormod, the Desecrator - Would need to add a few more enablers, but I like the card
Crimson Fleet Commondore - If Staunch Throneguard doesn't work out
Slaughter the Strong - I'm pretty sure this is just a sideboard card, but not 100% confident
Exquisite Huntmaster - Unexicitng, but a good roleplayer
Fin-Clade Fugitives - 5 mana for a 7/4 haste with some evasion is pretty exciting, but it needs a discard outlet to avoid the frontside
Feast of Succession being incredibly bad against manlands and haste creatures while discouraging you playing creatures that can get a hit in makes me hesitant. I find monarch plays decently as long as you can reasonably take it back if you lose it, but I don't think most decks playing this will be able to do that.
Daring Saboteur is a pretty unimpressive downshift. Outside of pirate synergies I don't really think any deck is particularly happy to play it.
Impulsive Goblin is kind of novel. It does a bunch of things not particularly well, but it is 2 bodies and 2 treasures for red sac synergy for a fairly low cost on a versatile body.
Juri, Master of the Revue is another really solid addition to RB aristocrats we've gotten recently.
I'm definitely testing Araumi of the Dead Tide, but I'm a bit hesitant about expensive sorcery speed tap abilities on defensive bodies in general. The quality of targets also varies wildly depending on whether you're the aggressor or defender, so it's hard to say how good they are. (Also curves into Tormod, the Desecrator and can make a zombie, then later activate + encore makes 2 tokens)
Fall from Favor is good, but I don't think removal + monarch makes for good gameplay.
I kinda like Staunch Throneguard. It's pretty similar in power level to the rest of the old non-Palace Jailer monarch cards and gives every colour access to monarch by itself.
Dargo, the Shipwrecker seems pretty good as far as all in cards go. Curves out of any of the 2cmc make 2 dudes cards or Thraben Inspector for a 7/5 trampler on t3. Being able to cast it for R also opens up some neat stuff like Reckless Charge + Temur Battle Rage with low mana requirements. It's also not the worst if you play it as a midgame threat: 7/5 trample is big for 5 mana and it also functions as a one time board sac if it's needed.
Prava of the Steel Legion needing less requirements and being easier to interact with than Intangible Virtue are big pluses for me.
I don't think there's a way to make Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh decent even if you build entirely around him.
Merchant Raiders is pretty good, but most (all?) of the good pirates are lower cmc than it. Probably still worth it without deliberate support if your blue section wants it.
Kitesail Skirmisher might be worthwhile if we get more pirate tribal support. 1 toughness isn't great, but a 3 power flier for 4 with some offensive utility and a reasonable recursion cost is pretty close.
Best I can think of for Alena is dropping an Enigma Drake (or similar) for 6+ then playing Rolling Thunder (or similar), but that's far too narrow to justify an expensive fragile card. Turning Reckless Charge into a ritual is novel too I guess.