I might be missing some of the math for chained arrowe, but since we only make 3 treasures to start, and one of them is accounted for to pay for dance of the manse, we only get to like C->3->6? Before casting another Happily ever after.
We do start with an early happily ever after.
We need to animate TYS, so we need to cast Dance of the Manse, so we need white mana from Smothering tithe, which comes from Happily ever after.
so once we've gotten started, they have drawn 7 from their hand, 2 for their turns and 1 from that happily ever after leaving 50 cards left.
But I do see your point, we spend a lot of life in the start. and something like
TYS 10
venture deeper 9
Cling to dust 8->14
Venture deeper 13 gy 12
Eerie Ultimatum x4 returning the tithes, rhythm of the wild, kinnan, pixie, dowser, Happily ever after
6life
seems probably like an improvement.
Thanks for pointing out an optimization in the start:
Rakdos Guildgate+Overgrown Tomb are all the lands we need, saving us 2 life
also found an error with cling to dust math costing us 1 life, so the net is +1 life and +1 card slot. (embereth shieldbreaker? Collision//Colossus goes infinite with Crushing canopy as a second plummet)
Currently I have the start written after we take a double mulligan, as the extra cards really don't matter for a long time.
Since previews have started trickling in, I posted it to reddit.
It does mean that we run the black stage before the blue one, but that's actually an improvement from a readability/comprehension standpoint as the blue stage is much more complicated.
Edit: We can save another draw and two(!) card slots by using one of the copies of flicker of fate on the pixie and using the blue to fetch Shipwreck dowser early and return quasiduplicate, then quasisduplicating the dowser for crusing canopy, Ritual of Soot, Dance, and Revival.
Edit: I think your plan doesn't quite work, as we can't kill the Gemrazer if it gets mutated onto Nikya, but if we get a second mutator, we can have the parrot ping it down and then just draw it with a prophecy trigger.
So:
DCU, needed to do the U stage combo.
Gemrazor, needed to ping/gain life
Jaya/Awaken, needed to turn red into life with Leafkin
Greathorn, second mutator for nikya
Chop Down/Light up, Full life stage
Because Revival targets, we only get as many as we have TYS which is just the one until we can Quasiduplicate it.
Still we can name DCU, but not with the full power of the U stage, so its not a lot. Similarly with the life stage cards, we don't get the full power. So its like 25 full three stage combo draws. With six 2 stage draws and a 1 stage batch of draws. And 58+25=83 individual Cling to dust draws, only a few of which can actually be done now.
Ah, yeah missed that, thought invert was safe without Dazzling lights.
For some reason I thought a proliferate creature went infinite, but that's clearly not the case. So thirty two names. (though I'm still not sure on if we can really use Devious Cover-Up and we can't really make full use of the cards in the parrot stage we need to cast most of them in the stage combo.)
But we can't make them discard with bad Deal until the end step, would it be better to get as many of these limited draws earlier when we are doing the full combo? Just as an example consider if we had access to just one gy card and one batch of draws via keeper of fables. Isn't it better to exile the gy card first so we get more keeper of fables?
Edit: Also, since we actually have some black with this start, do we want to use our card in hand cast the initial Ritual of Soot from hand? That'd save 4 life, and maybe a Stonecoil Serpent.
I guess we were accounting for that card to be Crushing canopy, so it only saves 1 life.
So a few notes:
Valid names for Medomai's Prophecy after the starting line are numbers: 1,6,11,14,28,29,31(maybe?),34-48,40,51,52,56,57,59,59,60,60. Thirty one?
The cards we can't exile are: Prophet, Citadel, TYS, Pixie, Quasiduplicate, Devious Cover-Up, Crushing canopy, Soot, Revival, Parrot, mutator, mutator, Jaya, Chop down, Light up, Nikya. With everything else being worth exiling eventually.
Do we want Cavern whisperer over Gemrazer to get their cards early at the cost of the life stage being less efficient? I think the answer was no, but want to double check.
We don't actually need to give it indestructible because we only get to use it with a few names (<30 or so?) and we don't need to go to combat in between, so we can use the TYS triggers of the second Dance of the manse we get to cast with that odd White we have left.
Flicker of Fate also lets us retrigger Happily ever after, which was the vital reason for enchantment destruction. We do unfortunately lose out on a few draws via Cling to Dust without a way to get the other excess enchantments in the yard.
That said, it looks like fitting a casting of Crushing canopy into the start is possible as we do have a card in hand from HEA...
Hmm, yeah im not seeing an obvious way to shave a card, So I think for now the Medomai's Prophecy / proliferate combo is the least beneficial.
Its a real shame we don't have a better way to make early storm. Spending 2 life for x=0 Heliod's Intervention isn't quite worth it.
Sage of mysteries gives us enough mill, but not enough storm. as we need 2+3+4=9x Cling (1+3+5 = 4+5=9 are other options but we'd need to get the storm that high somehow)
Edit: hmm we can cut the extra TYS, and Leyline and collision for Crushing canopy and another card. though im not sure what that'd be. Maybe Flicker of Fate so we don't have to spend 4 for Leafkin Avenger?
Edit:
I think flicker of Fate can just straight up save us ivy elemental and Wall of lost thoughts:
Citadel
TYS (10)
8 x/xs
Cling
Venture
Cling
Cling (30) GY:8
Rhythm
Kinnan
Flicker (23) 15G10B
Tithe x4 (7)
HEA (9)
Pixie (7) 18G2U10B2W
Dance 12G1U10B1W
Soot (3)
Revival (1)
I had considered ivy elemental, but it didn't look like the one extra card would be enough. Getting a revival mill creature as that card looks like it works though.
We would be down a storm and up a Medomai's prophecy name which seems like a good trade.
So the line is:
Citadel
TYS
Venture deeper (TYS, Leylines, Wall)
Stonecoil serpents
Cling to Dust
Ivy elemental
Cling to Dust
Conjurants
Cling to Dust
Smothring Tithes
Happily ever after
Rhythm
Kinnan
Pixie
Avenger
Dance
Ritual of soot (1/11)
Revival (1/2)
Kinnan shipwreck dowser
Quasiduplicate
Collision
Revival (2/2)
Ritual of Soot (2/11)
Revival (1/20ish?)
and off to the races
Starting at a low life total and with only 1 card in hand is still a bit tricky when it comes to the life/parrot stage, but still possible:
Since we only have one we need to get it started with red mana via Leafkin avenger, but if we want to make copies of Nikya before we tap the land that card in hand has to be a mutator. But we will also need Jaya in hand to have a target to gain life off of. So we need to draw another card (Cling to dust exiling a Cling to dust) and we don't want to waste that draw trigger so we'll also need it to be animated and us to have a bunch of Tolarian Krakens.
Also the improved start adds some card slot freedom, so adventure guys?
We need to animate TYS, so we need to cast Dance of the Manse, so we need white mana from Smothering tithe, which comes from Happily ever after.
so once we've gotten started, they have drawn 7 from their hand, 2 for their turns and 1 from that happily ever after leaving 50 cards left.
But I do see your point, we spend a lot of life in the start. and something like
TYS 10
venture deeper 9
Cling to dust 8->14
Venture deeper 13 gy 12
Eerie Ultimatum x4 returning the tithes, rhythm of the wild, kinnan, pixie, dowser, Happily ever after
6life
seems probably like an improvement.
And I though I had tested comments.
Edit: Second draft of the writeup is more or less done
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wjjHXZgGTnI0Qu6-L8pSyz9RZ72XL5xj4FszvHr2eaU/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks for pointing out an optimization in the start:
Rakdos Guildgate+Overgrown Tomb are all the lands we need, saving us 2 life
also found an error with cling to dust math costing us 1 life, so the net is +1 life and +1 card slot. (embereth shieldbreaker? Collision//Colossus goes infinite with Crushing canopy as a second plummet)
Currently I have the start written after we take a double mulligan, as the extra cards really don't matter for a long time.
Since previews have started trickling in, I posted it to reddit.
It does mean that we run the black stage before the blue one, but that's actually an improvement from a readability/comprehension standpoint as the blue stage is much more complicated.
Edit: We can save another draw and two(!) card slots by using one of the copies of flicker of fate on the pixie and using the blue to fetch Shipwreck dowser early and return quasiduplicate, then quasisduplicating the dowser for crusing canopy, Ritual of Soot, Dance, and Revival.
Happily ever after (at least 10 life)
Rhythm
Kinnan
Pixie 3G2U
Flicker (x5) 18G4U8B
Kinnan shipwereck dowser 12G3U8B
Quasiduplicate (x6) 11G1U8B Crushing canopy, Dance, Ritual, Revival, and Quasiduplicate (DCU?)
Crushing canopy 8G1U8B
Dance 2G8B
Ritual of soot (1/7) 6B
Revival (x1) 6G2U6B
Quasiduplicate
Ritual of soot (2/7)
Revival (x5 ish)
...
Ooh, and we can even start with one fewer cling to dust:
TYS
Heart's desire (Lovestruck beast)
Clingx2
Venture deeper
Cling x4
EDIT:
Man I cant believe I missed this: Flicker of fate targets, so it only makes 6G2U2B per TYS,
ok so reworked the start and I have:
8 x mana x/xs
TYS 10
Cling 9->12
Venture 11
Cling 10->19
Cling 19->31
Smothering Tithe x4 15
Happily Ever After 12->17
Rhythm 14
Kinnan 12 2W
Pixie 10 3G2U2W
Leafkin avenger 6 8G2U2W
Kinnan dowser (canopy) 6 2G1U2W
Flicker (Quasiduplicate)4 13G3U2B2W
Canopy (hand) 4 10G3U2B2W
Dance (hand) 4 4G2U2B1W
Quasiduplicate (hand) 4 3G0U2B
Ritual of soot (hand) 4 1G
Revival 2
Edit:
Which means the deck is:
1 Leyline of Abundance
2 Leyline of Abundance
3 Leyline of Abundance
4 Gruul Guildgate
5 Watery Grave
6 Skull Prophet
7 Watery Grave
8 Bolas's Citadel
Engines:
9 Thousand-Year Storm
10 Dance of the Manse
11 Leyline of Anticipation
12 Rhythm of the Wild
13 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy
Startup:
14 Merfolk Secretkeeper
15 Cling to Dust
16 Cling to Dust
17 Cling to Dust
4x Stonecoil Serpent
4x Ugin's Conjurant
26 Flicker of Fate
27 Maraleaf Pixie
28 Frilled Mystic
29 Shipwreck Dowser
30 Quasiduplicate
31 Devious Cover-Up
32 Crushing Canopy
Black Mana Stage:
33 Ritual of Soot
34 Revival // Revenge
Life Stage:
35 Duskfang Mentor
36 Porcuparrot
37 Migratory Greathorn
38 Gemrazer
39 Jaya, Venerated Firemage
40 Giant Killer
41 Light up the Stage
Red Mana Layer:
42 Leafkin Avenger
43 Nikya of the Old Ways
Untap Layer:
44 Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi
45 Tolarian Kraken
46 Keeper of Fables
47 Response // Resurgence
Opponent's life Layer:
48 Heliod's Intervention
White mana Layer:
49 Smothering Tithe
Opponent's draws (x50):
50 Happily Ever After
End step:
51 Gadrack, the Crown-Scourge
52 Bad Deal
Convenient Extras:
53 Smothering Tithe
54 Smothering Tithe
55 Smothering Tithe
Minor optimizations:
56 Repeated Reverberation
57 Medomai's prophecy
58 Pollenbright Druid
59 Assure // Assemble
60 Flower // Flourish
Edit: I think your plan doesn't quite work, as we can't kill the Gemrazer if it gets mutated onto Nikya, but if we get a second mutator, we can have the parrot ping it down and then just draw it with a prophecy trigger.
So:
DCU, needed to do the U stage combo.
Gemrazor, needed to ping/gain life
Jaya/Awaken, needed to turn red into life with Leafkin
Greathorn, second mutator for nikya
Chop Down/Light up, Full life stage
Still we can name DCU, but not with the full power of the U stage, so its not a lot. Similarly with the life stage cards, we don't get the full power. So its like 25 full three stage combo draws. With six 2 stage draws and a 1 stage batch of draws. And 58+25=83 individual Cling to dust draws, only a few of which can actually be done now.
For some reason I thought a proliferate creature went infinite, but that's clearly not the case. So thirty two names. (though I'm still not sure on if we can really use Devious Cover-Up and we can't really make full use of the cards in the parrot stage we need to cast most of them in the stage combo.)
But we can't make them discard with bad Deal until the end step, would it be better to get as many of these limited draws earlier when we are doing the full combo? Just as an example consider if we had access to just one gy card and one batch of draws via keeper of fables. Isn't it better to exile the gy card first so we get more keeper of fables?
Edit: Also, since we actually have some black with this start, do we want to use our card in hand cast the initial Ritual of Soot from hand? That'd save 4 life, and maybe a Stonecoil Serpent.
I guess we were accounting for that card to be Crushing canopy, so it only saves 1 life.
1 Leyline of Abundance
2 Leyline of Abundance
3 Leyline of Abundance
4 Gruul Guildgate
5 Watery Grave
6 Skull Prophet
7 Watery Grave
8 Bolas's Citadel
Engines:
9 Thousand-Year Storm
10 Dance of the Manse
11 Leyline of Anticipation
12 Rhythm of the Wild
13 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy
Startup:
14 Merfolk Secretkeeper
15 Cling to Dust
16 Cling to Dust
17 Cling to Dust
4x Stonecoil Serpent
4x Ugin's Conjurant
26 Flicker of Fate
27 Maraleaf Pixie
28 Frilled Mystic
29 Shipwreck Dowser
30 Quasiduplicate
31 Devious Cover-Up
32 Crushing Canopy
Black Mana Stage:
33 Ritual of Soot
34 Revival // Revenge
Life Stage:
35 Duskfang Mentor
36 Porcuparrot
37 Migratory Greathorn
38 Gemrazer
39 Jaya, Venerated Firemage
40 Giant Killer
41 Light up the Stage
Red Mana Layer:
42 Leafkin Avenger
43 Nikya of the Old Ways
Untap Layer:
44 Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi
45 Tolarian Kraken
46 Keeper of Fables
47 Response // Resurgence
Opponent's life Layer:
48 Heliod's Intervention
White mana Layer:
49 Smothering Tithe
Opponent's draws (x50):
50 Happily Ever After
End step:
51 Gadrack, the Crown-Scourge
52 Bad Deal
Convenient Extras:
53 Smothering Tithe
54 Smothering Tithe
55 Smothering Tithe
Minor optimizations:
56 Repeated Reverberation
57 Medomai's prophecy
58 Courage in Crisis
59 Assure // Assemble
60 Invert // Invent
So a few notes:
Valid names for Medomai's Prophecy after the starting line are numbers: 1,6,11,14,28,29,31(maybe?),34-48,40,51,52,56,57,59,59,60,60. Thirty one?
The cards we can't exile are: Prophet, Citadel, TYS, Pixie, Quasiduplicate, Devious Cover-Up, Crushing canopy, Soot, Revival, Parrot, mutator, mutator, Jaya, Chop down, Light up, Nikya. With everything else being worth exiling eventually.
Do we want Cavern whisperer over Gemrazer to get their cards early at the cost of the life stage being less efficient? I think the answer was no, but want to double check.
Flicker of Fate also lets us retrigger Happily ever after, which was the vital reason for enchantment destruction. We do unfortunately lose out on a few draws via Cling to Dust without a way to get the other excess enchantments in the yard.
That said, it looks like fitting a casting of Crushing canopy into the start is possible as we do have a card in hand from HEA...
Edit: oh and new page so here's the list:
1 Leyline of Abundance
2 Leyline of Abundance
3 Leyline of Abundance
4 Gruul Guildgate
5 Watery Grave
6 Skull Prophet
7 Watery Grave
8 Bolas's Citadel
Engines:
9 Thousand-Year Storm
10 Dance of the Manse
11 Leyline of Anticipation
12 Rhythm of the Wild
13 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy
Startup:
14 Merfolk Secretkeeper
15 Cling to Dust
16 Cling to Dust
17 Cling to Dust
4x Stonecoil Serpent
4x Ugin's Conjurant
26 Flicker of Fate
27 Maraleaf Pixie
28 Frilled Mystic
29 Shipwreck Dowser
30 Quasiduplicate
31 Devious Cover-Up
32 Collision // Colossus
Black Mana Stage:
33 Ritual of Soot
34 Revival // Revenge
Life Stage:
35 Duskfang Mentor
36 Porcuparrot
37 Migratory Greathorn
38 Gemrazer
39 Jaya, Venerated Firemage
40 Giant Killer
41 Light up the Stage
Red Mana Layer:
42 Leafkin Avenger
43 Nikya of the Old Ways
Untap Layer:
44 Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi
45 Tolarian Kraken
46 Keeper of Fables
47 Response // Resurgence
Opponent's life Layer:
48 Heliod's Intervention
White mana Layer:
49 Smothering Tithe
Opponent's draws (x50):
50 Happily Ever After
End step:
51 Gadrack, the Crown Scourge
52 Bad Deal
Convenient Extras:
53 Leyline of Abundance
54 Smothering Tithe
55 Smothering Tithe
56 Smothering Tithe
57 Thousand-Year Storm
Minor optimizations:
58 Repeated Reverberation
59 Medomai's prophecy
60 Courage in Crisis
I also almost had an extra layer with Teferi's Ageless Insight but that decks us, so we can avoid dying with Underrealm Lich but that no longer triggers Tolarian Kraken
Its a real shame we don't have a better way to make early storm. Spending 2 life for x=0 Heliod's Intervention isn't quite worth it.
Sage of mysteries gives us enough mill, but not enough storm. as we need 2+3+4=9x Cling (1+3+5 = 4+5=9 are other options but we'd need to get the storm that high somehow)
Edit: hmm we can cut the extra TYS, and Leyline and collision for Crushing canopy and another card. though im not sure what that'd be. Maybe Flicker of Fate so we don't have to spend 4 for Leafkin Avenger?
Edit:
I think flicker of Fate can just straight up save us ivy elemental and Wall of lost thoughts:
Citadel
TYS (10)
8 x/xs
Cling
Venture
Cling
Cling (30) GY:8
Rhythm
Kinnan
Flicker (23) 15G10B
Tithe x4 (7)
HEA (9)
Pixie (7) 18G2U10B2W
Dance 12G1U10B1W
Soot (3)
Revival (1)
We would be down a storm and up a Medomai's prophecy name which seems like a good trade.
So the line is:
Citadel
TYS
Venture deeper (TYS, Leylines, Wall)
Stonecoil serpents
Cling to Dust
Ivy elemental
Cling to Dust
Conjurants
Cling to Dust
Smothring Tithes
Happily ever after
Rhythm
Kinnan
Pixie
Avenger
Dance
Ritual of soot (1/11)
Revival (1/2)
Kinnan shipwreck dowser
Quasiduplicate
Collision
Revival (2/2)
Ritual of Soot (2/11)
Revival (1/20ish?)
and off to the races
Starting at a low life total and with only 1 card in hand is still a bit tricky when it comes to the life/parrot stage, but still possible:
Since we only have one we need to get it started with red mana via Leafkin avenger, but if we want to make copies of Nikya before we tap the land that card in hand has to be a mutator. But we will also need Jaya in hand to have a target to gain life off of. So we need to draw another card (Cling to dust exiling a Cling to dust) and we don't want to waste that draw trigger so we'll also need it to be animated and us to have a bunch of Tolarian Krakens.
We have 3U floating after revival, and thats just enough to kinnan once (for shipwreck dowser) and cast quasiduplicate.