Id say in this context self voting was... less bad than it often is for a few reasons but you absolutely lowered your teams win percentage by a nonzero amount
I’m willing to admit I could be wrong, you have more experience than me. But I’m confident enough in my opinion to disagree, and you won’t convince me otherwise before deadline.
I’m not down for town flailing to save myself, or pretending my reads are stronger than they are either.
I’m confident we get more out of Th is as town by taking things slowing and rationally.
if youre town you are incorrect from a mathematical Expected Value standpoint, and the more holistic one in which that self vote ensured that the rest of the votes on you are all but completely meaningless
Like this one vote kk
I dont think youre scum. I dont think your flip is the optimal one. But here we are.
@Silver
[0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)]
explain this?
this whole case on Tom, and one little micro read changes everything?
in a world where Tom is a wolf, and KK is not a hit, what else would he be doing?
to answer that, there are many things honestly
but either way it doesnt mattter, KK always needs to die here from the way hes playing
i mean i can answer that.
Because it should absolutely be 0 in [me/emiko] in the scumcantrip/townkk&megs world hes talking about so really thats still him scumreading me ridiculously imo
@Silver: it doesn’t feel like a walk back, but I’ll grant there’s not really much there to say either way.
Popping in to add that I would probably expect scum, when asked to clarify that question, would be more likely to go "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". Barring multiple buddies in Vaimes/Silver/KCC, I guess, but I agree with Shadow that it's a townie response and I like Emiko for it.
Because instead of saying exactly one, and locking that group down, he’s saying up to one, which has an entirely different connotation.
Exactly one is super useful for false clearing/chain lynching/whatever, whereas up to one reads more like someone making a genuine situation read.
@KCC: technically Vaimes did participate, just didn’t vote, is that something you specifically think comes from a scum mindset more often/do you assess it based on player?
I feel like this is a bit premature, actually. It's possible that 'exactly one' just didn't occur to him.
I make this point because I'm getting newb vibes from him, so it's certainly more possible than not that he didn't think it through when he answered that. I therefore think that this is not a good reason to townread him at this stage. @Cantrip: You can weigh in here too since you made the same point.
Killjoy, Emiko mentioned their experience, didn't sound like a complete noob. Even as a noob, though, I wouldn't expect inexperienced scum to put forth a "1 in x/y/z" and then upon cross-examination go "or could be zero". Newer scum from what I've observed are more likely to amp up the possibilities of others being scummy than not unless they're receiving flak. Not a guaranteed read for me, but Emiko's continuing to make ok-ish-to-good posts.
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
"up to one" - I haven't put any thought into it, no. But somebody's logic is off. shadow's or yours maybe, where you say that "exactly one" would be scummy, because it encourages chain lynching, but "up to one" doesn't—despite there not really being any less chain lynching potential there. I can't ask Shadow but I can ask you: why is "up to one" NOT a scum response?
(side note that silver asked a good question about it being a walkback)
((side note that i don't think anybody asked WHY emiko had that opinion))
I didn't say that saying "exactly one" would be scummy. I said that I would expect scum to be more likely to say "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". The former response pushes the likelihood that at least one is scum (hence, on at least a subconscious level, encouraging lunching all three to find the scum among them), while the latter does absolutely nothing (afaict) to further a scum agenda. Show me how "1, possibly 0" furthers Emiko's agenda as scum and I'll reconsider. (Yes, it could have been a walkback, but I didn't get that impression.)
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
to be honest it doesnt look like were very far apart here. At least in that we're looking at that chunk of cantrips posting and just finding something *wrong*
Youre voting yourself because...
You think one of your counterwagons is scum?
Because my cantrip case makes him think hes less likely scum than you are?
Yeah, but your cantrip case is seriously weak. Lynch me and analyze interactions (I’m pretty sure I have a lot more than cantrip)
I don’t like Megs stance on this. Either of us could be scum separately or we could both be scum? Looks like scum looking for chain mislynches to me. And he seems to be using his previous statements of Tom pocketing him to jump on the wagon with no reasoning of his own. Plus, his stance on me has gone from waffling to certain out of nowhere. I still don’t think it’s worth switching wagons though.
I want people to look closer at Vaimes after my flip. I think he’s acting very different since his argument with Last and I don’t like it.
@Anyone pushing a KK counterwagon from this point forward: I'm going to need to see not just why you think they are a better lynch, but why you think they are so much more likely to be scum that it's worth dumping more claims into the thread at this point. Or, why you don't care
i dont think <the person thats forced to claim first> should automatically become the default lynch, i dont think the reasons hes being voted are particularly indicative and he responded fine to a wagon, cantrip more likely to flip scum, and i care more about lynching scum than minimizing claims (though both would be nice)
Cantrip: Re: Meg: 213 is the post I was referencing where he was explaining himself. Explain this more, because I'm still not sure why it's scummy. He's literally just explaining his thought process. But I do agree that he's doing a bit of egging and fluffposting... the issue is I think he does that as either alignment.
I admit that my memory is not great, so I may be misremembering, but I generally remember Megiddo as more or less devil-may-care/does what he wants, and what I saw of town!him in Modern didn't change that. To make sure, I just reread his ISO from Modern, and this game he feels a LOT different. I'll go into more detail when I have a little more time, but here I've noticed a few posts where he almost feels like he's pandering, and his fluffposts are a LOT more abrasive than they were in Modern. Again, I'll do my best to point out specifics soon.
Also, are you seriously voting Meg for explaining himself? Is that really significant enough for a scumread?
No, I'm voting Megiddo primarily for 213 where it sounds like he's trying to explain why he might feel different from previous games, and then 239 where he asks Silver if Silver has any more questions for Megiddo without responding to Silver's 238. In addition, I feel like he's also been egging players on and fluff-posting.
Gg regardless. Think you made good posts up til that point
Megs (2): Cantrip, Kj
Cantripmancer (2): Emiko, silver
Not Voting (1): meg
Like this one
vote kk
I dont think youre scum. I dont think your flip is the optimal one. But here we are.
Because it should absolutely be 0 in [me/emiko] in the scumcantrip/townkk&megs world hes talking about so really thats still him scumreading me ridiculously imo
Self voting is against wincon in all but a few situations.
If youre town and know youre town everyone else has a better chance of flipping scum than you.
Any "im the best lynch" is just wrong. Certainly day 1.
So yeah. Vote someone else or keep playing to lose and get your wish I guess
You think one of your counterwagons is scum?
Because my cantrip case makes him think hes less likely scum than you are?