@Silver
[0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)]
explain this?
this whole case on Tom, and one little micro read changes everything?
in a world where Tom is a wolf, and KK is not a hit, what else would he be doing?
to answer that, there are many things honestly
but either way it doesnt mattter, KK always needs to die here from the way hes playing
i mean i can answer that.
Because it should absolutely be 0 in [me/emiko] in the scumcantrip/townkk&megs world hes talking about so really thats still him scumreading me ridiculously imo
literally wrote a whole line in that post pointing out it doesn't make much sense for you to be a wolf there
There's always a small chance one of you is a wolf in that world, not gonna 100% clear anybody without a cop check and a dead cop. See how I even said Vezok/Wisp/KCC only probably town?
lol I didn't even realize Cantrip was still voting Megs that whole time he was saying he didn't know where he was going with the iso
Vote: Cantripmancer
IF: [KK is town], THEN: [KCC, vezok, wisp probably town] [Megs maybe town] [Rhand most plausible wolf on wagon]
1-2 in [Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes]
0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)
If KK and Megs are both town, tom trying to wagon Cantrip in the 11th hour doesn't make much sense as a wolf. Which is kind of where I'm at right now I guess. Still hoping I was right earlier and KK is a hit but not at all convinced that it's actually true anymore. Easy game if it's just KK/tom/rhand though, I guess.
@Silver: it doesn’t feel like a walk back, but I’ll grant there’s not really much there to say either way.
Popping in to add that I would probably expect scum, when asked to clarify that question, would be more likely to go "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". Barring multiple buddies in Vaimes/Silver/KCC, I guess, but I agree with Shadow that it's a townie response and I like Emiko for it.
Because instead of saying exactly one, and locking that group down, he’s saying up to one, which has an entirely different connotation.
Exactly one is super useful for false clearing/chain lynching/whatever, whereas up to one reads more like someone making a genuine situation read.
@KCC: technically Vaimes did participate, just didn’t vote, is that something you specifically think comes from a scum mindset more often/do you assess it based on player?
I feel like this is a bit premature, actually. It's possible that 'exactly one' just didn't occur to him.
I make this point because I'm getting newb vibes from him, so it's certainly more possible than not that he didn't think it through when he answered that. I therefore think that this is not a good reason to townread him at this stage. @Cantrip: You can weigh in here too since you made the same point.
Killjoy, Emiko mentioned their experience, didn't sound like a complete noob. Even as a noob, though, I wouldn't expect inexperienced scum to put forth a "1 in x/y/z" and then upon cross-examination go "or could be zero". Newer scum from what I've observed are more likely to amp up the possibilities of others being scummy than not unless they're receiving flak. Not a guaranteed read for me, but Emiko's continuing to make ok-ish-to-good posts.
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
"up to one" - I haven't put any thought into it, no. But somebody's logic is off. shadow's or yours maybe, where you say that "exactly one" would be scummy, because it encourages chain lynching, but "up to one" doesn't—despite there not really being any less chain lynching potential there. I can't ask Shadow but I can ask you: why is "up to one" NOT a scum response?
(side note that silver asked a good question about it being a walkback)
((side note that i don't think anybody asked WHY emiko had that opinion))
I didn't say that saying "exactly one" would be scummy. I said that I would expect scum to be more likely to say "1, maybe more" rather than "1, possibly 0". The former response pushes the likelihood that at least one is scum (hence, on at least a subconscious level, encouraging lunching all three to find the scum among them), while the latter does absolutely nothing (afaict) to further a scum agenda. Show me how "1, possibly 0" furthers Emiko's agenda as scum and I'll reconsider. (Yes, it could have been a walkback, but I didn't get that impression.)
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
Cantrip admits its NAI if theres 1 scum in the 3. That doesnt come up at all while he uses it to call emiko town or attack megs. Thus, its a read of convenience rather than a thing hes considering.
Further theory: if cantrip is, in fact, scum this may have been caused by TMI. As stated (quite clearly in 975 i thought which is why that being your question is strange) that isn't why hes scum its a conclusion
Yeah, you said that at the end but then I was confused about where the wolf read came from.
I'd feel less like one of the two perspectives would be more likely.
Ok i currently think youre scum which would make silver likely town
vote cantrip
Okay, hold on, let me see if I have this straight
You think Cantrip is a wolf and is implying that all three of us are town and that therefore "0 to 1" is less wolfy because it's more correct? Or did I misunderstand.
@Cantrip: I meant that you haven't really come out of it one way or the other yet, just kind of poked at him over stuff that was there. Waiting to see where you go with it but I don't really have any comments about it directly? I don't really disagree with anything you wrote about him but without your conclusions it's only like, half an iso.
I was kind of reading his "worried he's tunneling" thing as an excuse to drop a dead wagon while leaving me open for a later vote because of how he was like "I still think I'm right but maybe I'm tunneling idk" because, like, if he still thinks he's right the unvote is weird.
But his play just kind of reads awkwardly and I think it might just be a playstyle thing? But also I think he's wolfier than megs is so I'd rather KK than megs right now and ~inertia~ probably means
There's also definitely not more than two wolves who were pushing me which is like, plausibly tom/KK given the timing of KK's vote but not tom/megs I don't think.
I'm not really concerned about "other people not voting".
I guess that's not quite true, like, I'm reading into it and I think it means something, but I don't really have a good direction to push them in other than tom and most of them aren't willing to vote him.
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Tom and I certainly had a Moment, I'll try not to repeat it in the future lol
Other than making explicit that Rhand is most likely wolf on KK's wagon regardless of his alignment so, uh.
If I'm dead someone should look into that for me.
Wouldn't mind a bit more time for other people to pop in before deadline though
There's always a small chance one of you is a wolf in that world, not gonna 100% clear anybody without a cop check and a dead cop. See how I even said Vezok/Wisp/KCC only probably town?
No such thing as a town lock without a dead body
Vote: Cantripmancer
IF: [KK is town], THEN: [KCC, vezok, wisp probably town] [Megs maybe town] [Rhand most plausible wolf on wagon]
1-2 in [Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes]
0-1 in [tom, Emiko] (probably 0)
If KK and Megs are both town, tom trying to wagon Cantrip in the 11th hour doesn't make much sense as a wolf. Which is kind of where I'm at right now I guess. Still hoping I was right earlier and KK is a hit but not at all convinced that it's actually true anymore. Easy game if it's just KK/tom/rhand though, I guess.
I'm kind turning this whole cantrip thing over in my brain and it's like...
He basically says that he would expect a wolf to say "1 or more" rather than "1, maybe none" in the general case unless they had multiple partners in the group.
It does seem to contain the implicit assumption that if [emiko is a wolf] then [she would not say that about a grouping of mostly villagers]. But any random group of three players has good odds of being 0 to 1 wolves so evidence to the contrary I don't really see why you would assume she has two+ partners there when considering whether she's a wolf.
I guess I disagree with Cantrip's read here (Emiko's statement is NAI in a vacuum) but the only wolf mindset I see is... it's possible that he wanted to put Emiko in his pocket and that when he got questioned for it he didn't think he could safely walk it back so he doubled down instead of saying "oh, you're right, it was NAI, my bad" and that's why we got this weird "up to 1 is more villagery in a vacuum than more than 1" because assuming there are multiple wolves in a list of three players just feels unbelievable?
Yes I know tom said this wasn't why he thought cantrip was a wolf, but I wanted to step back and see if it was a thing for myself. I guess it could be but it's not a slam dunk by any stretch.
Here's (part of) the megs thing tom wanted me to look at... I don't really think this is factoring into any wolf read Cantrip may or may not have on megs, though, Cantrip asked megs if he ever figured out what he thought was fishy about the "up to one" business. It does feel a bit defensive of his position here but I don't really think he's attacking megs over it or using it to push him, just saying "I think saying 1, possibly 0 doesn't help her if she's a wolf: change my mind".
I don't really think it's a thing that makes him a wolf, either, though there's this weird... Cantrip's megs read in general thing, as Rhand pointed out, where he went from thinking he's a wolf to isoing him and asking him questions to then telling me he wasn't sure where he was going with the iso yet. I've kind of been waiting to say it because I wanted to see where Cantrip ended up after I told him that if he's partners with KK I'd suspect him if he came out swinging for megs, but he was like, interacting with me weirdly the whole time he was talking to megs at the same time. Felt like he was simultaneously expecting me to do something and then when I didn't do what he wanted me to do he would just say "fair, I asked you because of [reason]" and then go on to something else.
And, okay, KK needs to vote one of his counterwagons to make it viable and not self vote, please, though given megs already took cantrip out of contention to put him at L-1 it might be too late for that
I'll be here for EoD, I'm considering cantrip but not megs right now.
Should've quoted that one instead I guess?
You think Cantrip is a wolf and is implying that all three of us are town and that therefore "0 to 1" is less wolfy because it's more correct? Or did I misunderstand.
But his play just kind of reads awkwardly and I think it might just be a playstyle thing? But also I think he's wolfier than megs is so I'd rather KK than megs right now and ~inertia~ probably means
There's also definitely not more than two wolves who were pushing me which is like, plausibly tom/KK given the timing of KK's vote but not tom/megs I don't think.
I guess that's not quite true, like, I'm reading into it and I think it means something, but I don't really have a good direction to push them in other than tom and most of them aren't willing to vote him.