i'm sure you guys will get the Last Scum though without me. Every time i've not been present for a lynch this game it's been on scum, so that should be good luck for Tomorrow right?
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So this is what I was saying when I said there were no discernable patterns at first. Shadow and Last interacted with each other a fair bit, though not a ton, and of the living players there's nobody that really stands out between the two of them. You can see KCC jumps up a ton D2, which was when the CC thing went down. I went into Vezok next:
So, see why I was so turned on to Vaimes here? The two flipped scum are medium-to-high in the chart, and Vaimes, who was so high on the other charts, is basically nonexistent. Curious! During vezok reread I also
Actually, I feel less confident about it now that I've completed the full exercise. However, I want to look into it more Tomorrow if given the chance. The points of interest are:
Last Replaces in. Read this and watch closely what the two scum do with Vaimes. Last's vote, Rhand's 561, 564 (there's a lot of tongue in cheek posts like this one from Vaimes when it comes to Last that don't read like genuine town-scum interaction), 585 (where you have the culmination of a back-and-forth that looks real but doesn't end in any real pressure... from either of them)... then, actually important, 599/600 where they both vote Rhand directly in a row and then there's no questioning of it or anything from Vaimes. Keep going until 620 where Last unvotes without commentary on Vaimes. Last, 630:
@Rhand
I'd expect town to like not just believe it or at least think about, idk
its not a strong read in the very least, and Im about 70% sure you just got spewed town by all these votes
who are the wolf(s) voting you?
Despite Vaimes being on there, right?
652 Last votes... me! Pressure off of Rhand. (690 has a vc.). Vaimes spends a while saying he wants to be on Rhand without ever pushing the wagon and finally lands on... me! Of course, by now Last has moved to KK, but that's OK.
Anyway, is it possible that all of this nonsense was townVaimes and scumLast going at it and Rhand, a genuine scumread of Vaimes, getting caught up in the tangle? Sure. Though (this honestly is probably coincidental) Vaimes and Rhand didn't interact until after Last replaced in, mostly because Rhand didn't post.
Thoughts on other players:
Vezok - Natural progression of votes. There's clear development of reads (see KCC- I asked the question earlier Today and if you look back Vezok really was sus of KCC from before the claim! and then after the claim! and then votes after the case! It's probably a real read!)
^ this is what I was writing before you hammered me.
Here's what else I'm thinking:
see who gets NK'd. I'm kind of assuming that Vaimes gets NK'd if he is town. If he's still alive, don't *not* investigate him; see above. If he does die, most likely scum Cantrip. Difference between his town and scumgame is that he hides a lot of shade and slander inside of his walls when he's scum, which he's done here a few times. I didn't get a chance to check him in ISO or against the rest of the game yet so make sure to do that.
Killjoy, idk. I'm sus because usually everybody wants to lynch him when he's town? and nobody did here? But also he did that thing I said he did and that addressed a major hole in his towngame.
I don't feel like Vezok can actually be scum here.
Anything else before EOD?
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I have spent weeks trying to get Last and Rhand lunched. You’ve demonstrated that their attention towards me trying to get them killed isn’t enough to be secure in my alignment. So what do you actually want from me?
intellectual curiosity and an attempt to solve the game.
i'm going to make one last Big Post with my thoughts, and then vote Vezok. after that I recommend lynching either Vezok or me Today. I don't care which. we're the main obstacles to the POE at this stage I think, and if people want to lynch me, Today is a better day to get me off of the table than Tomorrow.
GL, and don't forget to challenge your assumptions.
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I apparently didn't bold the thing I said I would bold.
> Scum spent all of d2 voting Vaimes. Like, if the balance of reads had shifted, Vaimes could have been lynched. I don't see about doing that all of d2.
^ this seemed very suspicious to me. Like, why do both scum spend so much time with just Vaimes?
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I feel like you're not taking into account the vca I presented. Vaimes spent all of d2 voting scum. Scum spent all of d2 voting Vaimes. Like, if the balance of reads had shifted, Vaimes could have been lynched. I don't see about doing that all of d2.
Admittedly, my world view is based around either you or Cantrip scum and Vaimes being the kill tonight. If me and Vaimes are still alive tomorrow I promise to look more into that possibility though.
I'm ready to vote if we have nothing else. I will come back on my break to do so. Should be in two hours.
who are you talking to here?
my proposal to you is to consider the above as a planned and coordinated Daychat strategy. read back Tomorrow and think hard on it.
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i mean, I agree that we shouldn't hash this all out today. We don't have time. which is why I want to lynch Vezok Today. get that off of the table. Deal with you (and probably me?) tomorrow with whoever of KJ/Cantrip gets to live.
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well it's definitely a hail mary. but I also am hoping it's also a brilliant hot take.
short version is that, outside of checking vezok to assure that it wasn't a gambit (which, despite everything you are about to read, is still the direction I want to go Today), I really, really didn't have a good idea of where to go:
- Cantrip: Outside of D1 I never really got the feeling that you were scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. You would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
- Killjoy: Outside of D3 I never really got the feeling that he was scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. He would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
I'm not discounting the possibilities obviously, but there may be a reason it feels like Today isn't going anywhere.
So I delved into the interaction analysis (Killjoy- did you finish yours?), which I'll present later this morning (still finishing). If you don't know, this is a thing I like to do where you go back and look at, purely numerically, who the dead scum were talking with. If you have two dead, you look for patterns. The theory is that scum are less likely to talk to each other than to town. So I was hoping to see a reasonable clear pattern pointing to Vezok.
I didn't. So I did Vezok's. And there was nothing pointing me to Last or Rhand.
Ok, head scratcher. Vezok probably not it. doesn't fit. Please note that while you are gathering numerical data to look at patterns, you by necessity have to read every single post by the people as you do it, and Vezok's didn't really stand out as too agenda-driven.
So then I was thinking. What patterns DO exist? And there was only one thing that both dead scum had in common. Both talked to Vaimes way more than anybody else. That didn't strike me as unusual the first time I was looking at that since Vaimes is top poster and he, naturally, would have talked to everybody more than anybody else. Except that Vezok's numbers didn't reflect that. so at this point I realized I would need to do the exercise for Vaimes.
Again, nothing I've said until now is actually incriminatory. But this prompted me to run the exercise on Vaimes himself. And, by virtue of a full game reread (vaimes posts in such a way that this exercise is impossible to do via ISO), I have hit on a few things that are making me question whether we should be writing him off as obvtown.
The first thing I want to point out, which I'll show with charts, is that Vaimes is a completely different persion before and after Last replaced in.
Rubric:
| = A vote, quote, or @. Talking TO a person in such a way that a response would be expected.
- = A mention or discussion. Talking ABOUT a person, often while talking TO another. Drive-by comments fall under this category.
Posts that mention all players, like T/S lists, are excluded unless they have heavy focus on just a couple of players.
As soon as Last replaces in, the three of them (last, vaimes, and rhand!) all have this quick flurry of interactions that are largely prompted by Vaimes and Last seemingly taunting each other. you can see how the relative numbers jump way up for both of them. Something of note is that KoolKoal, who was the lynch, didn't really get a ton of interaction, especially relative to those two.
This is why I said to reread the beginning of the game considering that the scum had Daychat. In review, this whole interaction looks coordinated. It would throw off exactly this kind of analysis as well as throw off anybody just observing them.
--
I've only gotten through page 25 of a vaimes-focused reread (which is midway through D2). However, if you read back you'll see that people did point this behavior out at the time. You'll also see how Vaimes appears to be hostile toward both Last and Rhand and even votes for them, but when the pressure was on backs off. Look back to when both Last and Vaimes voted for Rhand (this was when he made it to L-2) and Last unvoted, then Vaimes did too.
I'm getting pulled away to go get breakfast, but I'll post some more after I get back. Reread D1 and tell me if you see what I am seeing.
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i'll uh, try not to be so bad with my reads next time.
The spoiler has interaction analysis info:
Vaime |||||||||||-----------
KoolK |||||||---------
sh/La |||||----------
Killj ||||---
Megid |||--------
tomsl |||-----
Kitty |||---
Silve ||---
Cantr |-----------
Emiko |--------
vezok |-------
LAST (D1)
Vaime |||||||||||----
Emiko ||||||||-
KoolK ||||||---
Silve |||||---
tomsl ||||--
Rh/Ch ||-----
Megid |--
vezok --
Cantr -
Kitty
Killj
LAST (D2)
Vaime |||||||||||||||||||--------
Kitty |||||||||||-----
Emiko |||||||||---
Cantr ||||||||-
KoolK ||||||---
Silve |||||----
Rh/Ch ||||---------
tomsl ||||----
vezok |||---
Killj |||
Megid ||-----
So this is what I was saying when I said there were no discernable patterns at first. Shadow and Last interacted with each other a fair bit, though not a ton, and of the living players there's nobody that really stands out between the two of them. You can see KCC jumps up a ton D2, which was when the CC thing went down. I went into Vezok next:
VEZOK
KoolK ||||||||||-----
Cantr |||||||||--------
Kitty |||||||||----
sh/La |||||--------
Rh/Ch ||------
tomsl ||---
Megid |---------
Vaime |-----
Silve |----
Emiko ----
Killj --
So, see why I was so turned on to Vaimes here? The two flipped scum are medium-to-high in the chart, and Vaimes, who was so high on the other charts, is basically nonexistent. Curious! During vezok reread I also
VAIMES (D1)
Silve |||||||||||||------
Kitty ||||||||||||-
Megid |||||||||||-
tomsl |||||||--------
Emiko |||------
Vezok |||-
sh/La ||-----
Cantr ||---
Rh/Ch ||
KoolK |--
Killj -----
^ up until Last replaces in.
Silve |||||||||||||||||||---------
Kitty ||||||||||||||||||--
sh/La ||||||||||||||----------------
Megid |||||||||||||--------
tomsl ||||||||||------------
Rh/Ch |||||||---------
Cantr |||||-----
KoolK |||----------
Emiko |||---------
Vezok |||----
Killj |-------
VAIMES D2
sh/La ||||||||||||||||||||||------------------------------------
Kitty ||||||||||||||||||||||----------------
Megid ||||||||||||||||||||||--------------
Silve |||||||||||||||||||----------
Rh/Ch ||||||||||||||---------------------
Cantr ||||||||||||||----------------
Killj ||||||||||||||-----------
tomsl ||||||||||--------------
Emiko ||||||||--------------------
Vezok ||||-------------
KoolK |||----------
Vaimes D3
sh/La ||||||||||||||||||||||--------------------------------------
Megid ||||||||||||||||||||||-----------------
Kitty ||||||||||||||||||||||----------------
Silve |||||||||||||||||||----------
Killj |||||||||||||||||-----------
Rh/Ch |||||||||||||||-----------------------
Cantr |||||||||||||||-----------------
Emiko |||||||||||||--------------------
tomsl ||||||||||--------------
Vezok ||||-----------------
KoolK |||----------
Actually, I feel less confident about it now that I've completed the full exercise. However, I want to look into it more Tomorrow if given the chance. The points of interest are:
Last Replaces in. Read this and watch closely what the two scum do with Vaimes. Last's vote, Rhand's 561, 564 (there's a lot of tongue in cheek posts like this one from Vaimes when it comes to Last that don't read like genuine town-scum interaction), 585 (where you have the culmination of a back-and-forth that looks real but doesn't end in any real pressure... from either of them)... then, actually important, 599/600 where they both vote Rhand directly in a row and then there's no questioning of it or anything from Vaimes. Keep going until 620 where Last unvotes without commentary on Vaimes. Last, 630:
Despite Vaimes being on there, right?
652 Last votes... me! Pressure off of Rhand. (690 has a vc.). Vaimes spends a while saying he wants to be on Rhand without ever pushing the wagon and finally lands on... me! Of course, by now Last has moved to KK, but that's OK.
Anyway, is it possible that all of this nonsense was townVaimes and scumLast going at it and Rhand, a genuine scumread of Vaimes, getting caught up in the tangle? Sure. Though (this honestly is probably coincidental) Vaimes and Rhand didn't interact until after Last replaced in, mostly because Rhand didn't post.
Thoughts on other players:
Vezok - Natural progression of votes. There's clear development of reads (see KCC- I asked the question earlier Today and if you look back Vezok really was sus of KCC from before the claim! and then after the claim! and then votes after the case! It's probably a real read!)
^ this is what I was writing before you hammered me.
Here's what else I'm thinking:
see who gets NK'd. I'm kind of assuming that Vaimes gets NK'd if he is town. If he's still alive, don't *not* investigate him; see above. If he does die, most likely scum Cantrip. Difference between his town and scumgame is that he hides a lot of shade and slander inside of his walls when he's scum, which he's done here a few times. I didn't get a chance to check him in ISO or against the rest of the game yet so make sure to do that.
Killjoy, idk. I'm sus because usually everybody wants to lynch him when he's town? and nobody did here? But also he did that thing I said he did and that addressed a major hole in his towngame.
I don't feel like Vezok can actually be scum here.
Anything else before EOD?
not gg. i think this is only the second time i've been mislynched ever!
i'm going to make one last Big Post with my thoughts, and then vote Vezok. after that I recommend lynching either Vezok or me Today. I don't care which. we're the main obstacles to the POE at this stage I think, and if people want to lynch me, Today is a better day to get me off of the table than Tomorrow.
GL, and don't forget to challenge your assumptions.
> Scum spent all of d2 voting Vaimes. Like, if the balance of reads had shifted, Vaimes could have been lynched. I don't see about doing that all of d2.
^ this seemed very suspicious to me. Like, why do both scum spend so much time with just Vaimes?
my proposal to you is to consider the above as a planned and coordinated Daychat strategy. read back Tomorrow and think hard on it.
we have ~ 7 hours.
short version is that, outside of checking vezok to assure that it wasn't a gambit (which, despite everything you are about to read, is still the direction I want to go Today), I really, really didn't have a good idea of where to go:
- Cantrip: Outside of D1 I never really got the feeling that you were scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. You would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
- Killjoy: Outside of D3 I never really got the feeling that he was scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. He would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
I'm not discounting the possibilities obviously, but there may be a reason it feels like Today isn't going anywhere.
So I delved into the interaction analysis (Killjoy- did you finish yours?), which I'll present later this morning (still finishing). If you don't know, this is a thing I like to do where you go back and look at, purely numerically, who the dead scum were talking with. If you have two dead, you look for patterns. The theory is that scum are less likely to talk to each other than to town. So I was hoping to see a reasonable clear pattern pointing to Vezok.
I didn't. So I did Vezok's. And there was nothing pointing me to Last or Rhand.
Ok, head scratcher. Vezok probably not it. doesn't fit. Please note that while you are gathering numerical data to look at patterns, you by necessity have to read every single post by the people as you do it, and Vezok's didn't really stand out as too agenda-driven.
So then I was thinking. What patterns DO exist? And there was only one thing that both dead scum had in common. Both talked to Vaimes way more than anybody else. That didn't strike me as unusual the first time I was looking at that since Vaimes is top poster and he, naturally, would have talked to everybody more than anybody else. Except that Vezok's numbers didn't reflect that. so at this point I realized I would need to do the exercise for Vaimes.
Again, nothing I've said until now is actually incriminatory. But this prompted me to run the exercise on Vaimes himself. And, by virtue of a full game reread (vaimes posts in such a way that this exercise is impossible to do via ISO), I have hit on a few things that are making me question whether we should be writing him off as obvtown.
The first thing I want to point out, which I'll show with charts, is that Vaimes is a completely different persion before and after Last replaced in.
Silve |||||||||||||------
Kitty ||||||||||||-
Megid |||||||||||-
tomsl |||||||--------
Emiko |||------
Vezok |||-
sh/La ||-----
Cantr ||---
Rh/Ch ||
KoolK |--
Killj -----
^ up until Last replaces in.
Silve |||||||||||||||||||---------
Kitty ||||||||||||||||||--
sh/La ||||||||||||||----------------
Megid |||||||||||||--------
tomsl ||||||||||------------
Rh/Ch |||||||---------
Cantr |||||-----
KoolK |||----------
Emiko |||---------
Vezok |||----
Killj |-------
^ through the end of D2
Rubric:
| = A vote, quote, or @. Talking TO a person in such a way that a response would be expected.
- = A mention or discussion. Talking ABOUT a person, often while talking TO another. Drive-by comments fall under this category.
Posts that mention all players, like T/S lists, are excluded unless they have heavy focus on just a couple of players.
This is why I said to reread the beginning of the game considering that the scum had Daychat. In review, this whole interaction looks coordinated. It would throw off exactly this kind of analysis as well as throw off anybody just observing them.
--
I've only gotten through page 25 of a vaimes-focused reread (which is midway through D2). However, if you read back you'll see that people did point this behavior out at the time. You'll also see how Vaimes appears to be hostile toward both Last and Rhand and even votes for them, but when the pressure was on backs off. Look back to when both Last and Vaimes voted for Rhand (this was when he made it to L-2) and Last unvoted, then Vaimes did too.
I'm getting pulled away to go get breakfast, but I'll post some more after I get back. Reread D1 and tell me if you see what I am seeing.
will elaborate in the morning.