I do agree with the assessment that Urza's performance was likely do to a lack of artifact hate. When I looked over the deck lists for the MC, there seemed to be a lot of Nature's Claims, but not a lot mass artifact removal/negation like Stony Silence or Shattering Spree. If the meta opens up in such a way where people cut back on grave hate, I wouldn't be surprised if better artifact answers took those spots
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Thread in general's been pretty slow since a lot of the regulars moved to MTGNexus. There's also a lot of data tables there from users sifting through the data and segregating the Limited portion from the Modern Portion as well as links to other people's analyses. Some highlights:
Hogaak over-performed. Despite a tournament where there were more copies of Leyline of the Void in people's 75 than any other card, it still had the highest MWR at about 56%
Phoenix did all right, but it's MWR was only about 50%, which is about the same range as most of the other popular decks
UrzaSword was surprisingly high, with a MWR at about 55.4%, almost the same as Hogaak
It's also nice to see a BGx deck so well-positioned after what seemed like an eternity of BGx decks struggling to remain relevant
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Day 1 stats matter way less than day 2 stats. At Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, there were about 5 times as many Infect decks as there were Eldrazi Aggro decks day 1. By day two there were 26 Eldrazi decks and 25 Infect decks. Decks with relatively high day 2 conversion rates are the ones people should be worried about. That's not to say Hogaak won't have those, but when Leyline of the Void is the most played card in people's 75 and when RiP and Grafdigger's Cage are among the most played sideboard cards, we can at least conclude that people aren't treating Hogaak as some nerfed rogue deck
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Actually, most of this thread's actve posters have been posting in MTGNexus, which is why it's been quiet here. The format does seem to be doing all right. Maybe a little Phoenix heavy, but nothing blatantly egregious in my opinion
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Again, I agree with the ban, I never said they should have given it more time, just that they didn't need to cherrypick data to justify it.
My concern is: if they cherrypick data in an obvious ban like this, how can we trust they won't do the same in future situations where it isn't obvious that a ban is needed?
The numbers themselves may be hidden, but looking at the last two sentences in that particular paragraph:
It has only two unfavorable matchups among the other ten most played decks and a high win rate against lesser played "rogue" decks. Especially telling is its Game 1 win rate of roughly 66%, requiring most decks to sideboard heavily against it.
We can infer from this that its win rate against at least 8 other decks is above 50% and has at least a 50% match win rate against most rogue decks. Going back to when cards were hit out of Temur Energy and Ramunap Red in Standard (the article for reference) we know that simply having a positive match rate across nearly the whole meta is a concern for Wizards, even if most of those positive matches are just over 50%.
I do agree that posting a match win rate chart like they did for Ramunap Red and Temur energy wouldn't kill them, but if I had to hazard a guess, the goal wasn't to hide Hogaak's match win percentages. Rather, I think the goal was to hide what the 10 most popular decks were after Hogaak so as not to influence deck choices or tip people off on how to side for the upcoming Mythic Championship. A rather fruitless effort, I know, but these are the same people that still think that hiding MtGO data stops metas from being solved, so there's that. I also may be giving them too much credit, but they were at least willing to post numbers for the Ramunap Red and Temur Energy bans, which I assume would be more controversial bans given the number of cards that had already been banned in Standard.
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Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
I do agree that posting a match win rate chart like they did for Ramunap Red and Temur energy wouldn't kill them, but if I had to hazard a guess, the goal wasn't to hide Hogaak's match win percentages. Rather, I think the goal was to hide what the 10 most popular decks were after Hogaak so as not to influence deck choices or tip people off on how to side for the upcoming Mythic Championship. A rather fruitless effort, I know, but these are the same people that still think that hiding MtGO data stops metas from being solved, so there's that. I also may be giving them too much credit, but they were at least willing to post numbers for the Ramunap Red and Temur Energy bans, which I assume would be more controversial bans given the number of cards that had already been banned in Standard.
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix