Doing the overnight shift feedings for the newborn means I won't get to see the results till around noon PST. Looking forward to never having to play against KCI, brewing terrible decks with Stoneforge after selling my extra copies for exorbitant markup, and complaining that Twin is still unjustly banned. See you all after the announcement!
Turns out body doesn't want to sleep.
Anyway, what a depressingly underwhelming update. Lots of info on KCI, and absolutely nothing on the status of the format or any indication of unbans.
Emphasis added. A lack of unbans is depressing, but the update has critical information about the status of the format. See just a selection of quotes below:
"Given that Modern has looked healthy and diverse at many levels of play outside of Ironworks's dominance at the Grand Prix level"
(R&D believes that Modern is currently healthy and diverse, except for GP, at multiple levels. This likely includes MTGO, GP, and smaller venues)
"As a category, we think these are generally healthy provided they appear in small doses and have reasonable win rates."
(Opal and Stirrings decks are not overperforming by any metric Wizards bases B&R decisions on. This notably includes metagame share and MWP)
"As Modern stands, our metagame data does not indicate a need to impact the other Ancient Stirrings or Mox Opal decks."
(Stirrings and Opal decks are currently at acceptable levels in Modern)
In summary, Wizards said that Modern is healthy and where they want it to be, except for KCI. Plus KCI and Stirrings are being monitored. That's quite a bit of information when all Wizards needed to do was just post the rationale for banning KCI itself.
I skimmed it after about 4 hours of sleep.
Well good to know that the whack-a-mole s**tshow is officially considered healthy and their goal for Modern. I guess it's time to start selling off my expensive staples, because nothing is changing any time soon.
Doing the overnight shift feedings for the newborn means I won't get to see the results till around noon PST. Looking forward to never having to play against KCI, brewing terrible decks with Stoneforge after selling my extra copies for exorbitant markup, and complaining that Twin is still unjustly banned. See you all after the announcement!
Turns out body doesn't want to sleep.
Anyway, what a depressingly underwhelming update. Lots of info on KCI, and absolutely nothing on the status of the format or any indication of unbans.
Doing the overnight shift feedings for the newborn means I won't get to see the results till around noon PST. Looking forward to never having to play against KCI, brewing terrible decks with Stoneforge after selling my extra copies for exorbitant markup, and complaining that Twin is still unjustly banned. See you all after the announcement!
Having played a decent amount of UR Birds, the deck is a combination of Dredge and Storm that isn't crippled by the hate used for either. It's a bit too linear and uninteresting for me to continue playing, but it is very powerful.
My stance is that the most powerful things she is absolutely capable of are objectively weaker than the things capable of nearly every other top deck. And it's not even really close.
Well, in another meta, SFM could be too good for Modern. Notably a midrange one. We are far off that meta though, and I doubt we are ever coming back. Also, with K - Com, abrade, fatal push and other prints, answers for her are more than enough. Oh, Terminus is a thing also. She sucks vs terminus.
I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
Well, Turn 1 hand disruption, take your spot removal into turn 2 SFM is not something we should snug off that easily. For example, some years ago, SFM would be instantly rebanned if unbanned(up until 2015).
I would love nothing more than for my opponent to spend 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish something objectively weaker than what the majority of top decks are capable of. I hope people play this card if unbanned, so I can utterly stomp all over it with any of the decks I play.
Every time I die within the first four or five turns of the game, I often think (and sometimes out loud): "Could you imagine how much worse it would have been if my opponent tapped out for Stoneforge Mystic instead?" And then I laugh as I die to some broken nonsense.
Well, in another meta, SFM could be too good for Modern. Notably a midrange one. We are far off that meta though, and I doubt we are ever coming back. Also, with K - Com, abrade, fatal push and other prints, answers for her are more than enough. Oh, Terminus is a thing also. She sucks vs terminus.
I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
The issue with SFM is really: What is the most powerful thing it can do?
1) It can put into play a 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink artifact on turn 3, after tapping out on turn 2, and then also using 2 mana on turn 3, and then the token still can't even attack until turn 4.
2) It can get one of the five "Sword of (X) & (Y)" equipment and... beat in after turn 3 for incremental value?
Side note: neither Batterskull nor Swords see ANY meaningful play WHATSOEVER, due to the rise and efficiency of artifact removal. Mostly due to Kolaghan's Command, but also newly-added Abrade, and classic Ancient Grudge.
Meanwhile, here's a non-comprehensive list of things off the top of my head, which the top decks can do by turn 3 or 4:
- Attacking for 13+ with flipped Thing in the Ice and 2 Phoenix
- Karn, Ugin, Wurmcoil Engine, etc.
- Multiple 1 mana 5/5s and 12/12s
- Multiple free 4/4s
- Dredging 15+ power onto the board
- Primeval Titan (Valakuts or Amulets)
- Killed by Storm
- Killed by Infect
- Killed by KCI
- Killed by Burn
etc, etc, etc...
Meanwhile, some of the most played cards in Modern are forms of creature removal and hand disruption that both kill Stoneforge herself, or can take the equipment out of hand. It's also a format that lacks any meaningful ways to protect her that are available in other formats, such as Force, Daze, Mother of Runes, and various taxing lands. Stoneforge Mystic is not only NOT overpowered, I'd argue it's not good at all in Modern. I heavily predict that, if unbanned, she would have little to no meaningful impact after the initial wave of people jamming and forcing it, which is exactly what happened with Jace.
Thanks for all that info. I read that when it was announced but didn't link that to future announcements. I guess we'll see when it happens, but SFM is almost a given IMO.
To be fair, SFM has been "a given" for something like 2+ years. It is laughably less powerful than what pretty much all top decks are currently capable of, and was banned for the sins of a completely different format. It is fairly widely agreed that its continued ban has nothing to do with its power, but instead optics and perception.
Some interesting things, sadly he didn't add the most important one: What was the average MVP of the recorded decks? THAT would be super interesting, since you already have a relative decent data set.
Just goes to show that
I skimmed it after about 4 hours of sleep.
Well good to know that the whack-a-mole s**tshow is officially considered healthy and their goal for Modern. I guess it's time to start selling off my expensive staples, because nothing is changing any time soon.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Turns out body doesn't want to sleep.
Anyway, what a depressingly underwhelming update. Lots of info on KCI, and absolutely nothing on the status of the format or any indication of unbans.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Curious, when did you start playing Modern?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Since when was winning on turn 4 not allowed for the format? Don't they explicitly not want wins before turn 4, but 4+ is A-OK, regardless of type?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ajelenbogen/status/1083444796956524544
Probably the most brief and accurate take on Magic as a whole, and hyper relevant to Modern.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I would love nothing more than for my opponent to spend 4 mana over 2 turns to accomplish something objectively weaker than what the majority of top decks are capable of. I hope people play this card if unbanned, so I can utterly stomp all over it with any of the decks I play.
Every time I die within the first four or five turns of the game, I often think (and sometimes out loud): "Could you imagine how much worse it would have been if my opponent tapped out for Stoneforge Mystic instead?" And then I laugh as I die to some broken nonsense.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I greatly disagree that SFM would be good in a "midrange" format. Not only is that something that will likely never happen to Modern, but you seem to answer that 'problem' yourself by stating that these midrange decks would simply load up on disruption and removal; which completely destroy SFM's gameplan. Without the free or extremely efficient protection/taxing effects available to Legacy (where she is still just OK and not amazing, and that's WITH Jitte), she will never be close to "broken" and will likely never even be above "sort of good, I guess."
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
1) It can put into play a 4/4 Vigilance Lifelink artifact on turn 3, after tapping out on turn 2, and then also using 2 mana on turn 3, and then the token still can't even attack until turn 4.
2) It can get one of the five "Sword of (X) & (Y)" equipment and... beat in after turn 3 for incremental value?
Side note: neither Batterskull nor Swords see ANY meaningful play WHATSOEVER, due to the rise and efficiency of artifact removal. Mostly due to Kolaghan's Command, but also newly-added Abrade, and classic Ancient Grudge.
Meanwhile, here's a non-comprehensive list of things off the top of my head, which the top decks can do by turn 3 or 4:
- Attacking for 13+ with flipped Thing in the Ice and 2 Phoenix
- Karn, Ugin, Wurmcoil Engine, etc.
- Multiple 1 mana 5/5s and 12/12s
- Multiple free 4/4s
- Dredging 15+ power onto the board
- Primeval Titan (Valakuts or Amulets)
- Killed by Storm
- Killed by Infect
- Killed by KCI
- Killed by Burn
etc, etc, etc...
Meanwhile, some of the most played cards in Modern are forms of creature removal and hand disruption that both kill Stoneforge herself, or can take the equipment out of hand. It's also a format that lacks any meaningful ways to protect her that are available in other formats, such as Force, Daze, Mother of Runes, and various taxing lands. Stoneforge Mystic is not only NOT overpowered, I'd argue it's not good at all in Modern. I heavily predict that, if unbanned, she would have little to no meaningful impact after the initial wave of people jamming and forcing it, which is exactly what happened with Jace.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
To be fair, SFM has been "a given" for something like 2+ years. It is laughably less powerful than what pretty much all top decks are currently capable of, and was banned for the sins of a completely different format. It is fairly widely agreed that its continued ban has nothing to do with its power, but instead optics and perception.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Deck Wins Losses MWP
Dredge 36 25 59.02%
Burn 44 37 54.32%
HS Affinity 65 55 54.17%
Jund 31 27 53.45%
Tron 114 101 53.02%
UR Phoenix 65 59 52.42%
KCI 58 55 51.33%
Infect 35 35 50.00%
UW Control 22 23 48.89%
Spirits 167 176 48.69%
GDS 33 43 43.42%
Humans 30 40 42.86%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1emdErSjqy6Ct5Qi5CWXXcusiLD2jAl2bU13qjHITOsA/edit?usp=sharing
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UW didn't fare much better? In the data set, it was 22-23, for a MWP of 48.9%. Woof.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate