IMO if you run Elesh Norn then you Really really want Lingering Souls.
Restoration Angel can turn a tapped Tarmogoyf into a blocker. Or she can save a pre-delirium Flayer from a Lightning bolt. Maybe she is a little underwhelming and just not worth it. I feel like she wants to be played alongside Thragtusk too which might be too much to fit into one deck
I think a couple Unburial Rites aren't terribly unreasonable though it certainly is a different plan. Maybe the hate creature package (like Iona) belongs only in the sideboard? I've seen deck lists like this work where they also use maybe 2-3 Restoration Angel. Something like:
I'm a big fan of main deck Collective Brutality in BG Rock, so you can also pitch useless cards to that.
If you've seen their hand and know they're holding a white card, then it might be worth it to cut them off from white. I'll agree with that. Or if you need to kill an Eidolon when they're almost out of cards anyway ( so the ramp won't matter)
Ramping, imo, is only dangerous vs Combo, Burn and card advantage decks with lots of threats (Bant spirits or Elves fit that description). The rest all become better matchups.
Burn decks rarely seem to pack a Plains. Destroying their Sacred Foundry can be a tremendous help.
But it's only a 2-color deck. All their fetches are still gunning for R&W. It's not likely that Trophy will be locking any 2-color opponent out of a color. And even if you do lock them out of white, it only shuts down 8 cards from their main deck
According to mtgtop8, the metagame breakdown for mediocre (or worse) Trophy match-ups looks like this. (In this scenario, "mediocre" implies that Trophy has some relevant applications but mostly you'd rather have Decay. "Bad" implies that you'll almost always prefer decay over Trophy)
Keep in mind I'm referring to how AT compares specifically to Abrupt decay in these match-ups. Not that it's completely dead in the "bad" match-ups I've cited, just that Decay would be strongly preferred. Now let's look at the metagame breakdown of decks where Trophy is favored over Decay. (In this second list, "good" implies Trophy is preferred for some critical targets but Decay is still important and useful. "Great" implies you'll almost always prefer Trophy over Decay)
UWx Control 13% (good)
Tron 4% (great)
KCI 3% (great)
Hollow One 4% (great)
Mardu Pyro 3% (good)
Infect 2% (good)
For my assessments I've factored in which perms are relevant that Decay can't hit and how badly ramping your opponent can screw you over in a match-up.
26% you will strongly prefer Abrupt Decay over Assassin's Trophy
11% you will strongly prefer Assassin's Trophy over Abrupt Decay.
Now there's something to be said for the matches you actually want to hedge your main deck against, such as Tron. Shoring up the Tron game (our deck's arch nemesis) is probably worth more than the metagame presence breakdown suggests. This all of course depends on what meta you're talking about and how much you can anticipate.
Is Darkblast really usable against humans though? It's a great option for spirits and Affinity but that seems a bit narrow. I guess it could used against GW Vizier also. Not against humans though. It's only good against against Thalia, Noble and Phantasmal. And thats before they slam a Lieutenant
I can see a world where we would play a 3/2 split on Trophy and Decay instead of 3/1/1 on AT/AD/Pulse. But there's just no way that a 2/2 or 2/3 split is correct on Day 1 of the new meta. Decay is a really narrow card. There are matchups where it has virtually, or literally, zero relevant targets. Trophy always does something and it often does a lot. We can't hedge on Decay being good in matchups when you might go an entire tournament without seeing those matchups. At least Trophy is always removing something and often removing something that Decay can't hit at all. This is the same reason we often see 3 TS in BGx even if TS is harmful and risky in many matchups. It's a catchall answer in a very diverse format. Trophy fits that bill.
I'm glad you brought up this point. Have you noticed how IOK outnumbers TS is nearly every deck that uses both (except Shadow for obvious reasons). IOK is obviously far more narrow but it has no drawback. Then why on Earth is the split usually 4iok/2ts rather than reversed? Your logic here is already proven (incorrect) by the way people play TS and IOK.
RE: Spell Snare
If UWx adapts with this card, fine. Let's force them to have 6 lands in play, Teferi and Snare in hand every game to feel confident casting Teferi. If they want to run 1-2 Snare and compromise their countermagic against Lily, that's fine too. Running more Decays in place of Trophy doesn't solve any of these issues because Decay is often terrible in that matchup.
I'm not saying run Decay instead or run more Decays than Trophy, even. But there are relevant targets (albeit rare) in UW and Tron for Decay so it's not totally dead, and the fact that it's superior to Trophy in at least 25% of (other) match-ups in the metagame leads to believe that running small and equal numbers of each is probably correct, but that all depends on what metagame you're talking about. Local where you know what 80% of the players are on? Great, make the call. But in an open meta or competitive REL, I would say to be conservative with assassinating your opponents trophies 😁
I'm also not suggesting running decay instead of Trophy, but say a 2 Trophy - 1 Pulse split with maybe a 3rd Trophy in the board. Decay will probably end up being cut from 75 altogether anyway.
This part I disagree with.. Burn, Spirits, Humans, & Jund are all very popular decks in the format and Decay is actively better than Trophy here. I wouldn't want trophy at all for these matches (or maybe 1x post board against Jund) and Decay is so good especially against humans/spirits because it takes care of AEther Vial and nearly all creatures they use.
I agree with everything this guy is saying in his last 2-3 posts. *Golf clap*
Trophy is good for us in some critical matches but it doesn't replace decay, and I think decay is still better more often than Trophy (in the current metagame)
Just the existence of Trophy (and thus increase in Tarmogoyf metagame presence) will increase the number of Spell Snares (even mentioned in UW forum), which then makes Decay even more relevant.
Personally I'm loving all the Trophy hype because I'll be playing Sultai mid-range in the new metagame and eating other BGx decks for breakfast with my Spell Snares and Abrupt Decays, while they're ramping me into turn 3 JTMS
Rather than talk about any applications of Trophy you can think of, because there will be tons, but instead let's think about which actual tier decks it matters against, and how it compares to Abrupt Decay.
Against Humans, Vizier Combo, Elves & Spirits - Decay works just fine without giving them the extra land and ramping them into a Coco or other Mana-intensive plays. If they happen to play Worship post-board then Trophy would be significant.
Against Jund - Trophy handles manlands and BBE, which is relevant but also feel that not ramping them is relevant in this match-up. Personally I would want both for this match, leaning heavier on decay because it handles the scariest threats (LOTV, Bob, Tarmogoyf) without ramping them.
Against Tron - obviously Trophy is leagues better. Nothing more to be said. It's no substitute for Fulminator though IMHO. If you Trophy a land, they are still neutral on land count and can still realistically hard cast things like Wurmcoil and Thragtusk. I like to play LD against them.
Against UWx Control - Trophy takes care of some key cards that Decay misses, BUT the Counterspell protection is relevant enough that I would want both in this match-up. Decay still handles pre-flip SFA, Vendilion and Detention Sphere.
Against H1 and Bridge Vine - no reason to use Decay at all for these matches. (PTE is your main MVP here)
Infect - they have counterspells so again I would want both. Decay for Blighted Agent and Trophy for Inkmoth.
KCI - decay doesn't hit their main card so Trophy is certainly important. I'm not sure how difficult this match-up is for BGx anyways (feels extremely favored to me in Sultai and BG Rock)
Storm - Trophy is pointless here because they have counterspells and their only relevant perms are under 3 CMC anyways.
And the reason those cards are played in Sultai instead of other color config is because of Abrupt Decay. (I understand they are also played in other colors too)
Trophy is now the reason to play BGx so it's up to us to figure out the best color compliment
i think bgx players are just deathly scared of putting cards into the deck that are poor topdecks, which mana dorks have usually been classified as.
i was actually reading a piece by SaintDoom on reddit, who is a known aficionado of abzan traverse (he did a real nice write-up about it less than a week ago found here), and he is currently testing sultai with noble hierarch. the sultai writeup can be found here.
one point that he makes, that i think is important to emphasize, is that the deck needs to be tailored to maximize 3 mana plays; because that is the major benefit of the acceleration after all. be it a 3 drop, or impactful double-spelling. i see that as being more important than jamming a bunch of 4 drops and trying to ramp to them.
personally im still deciding between trying out abzan or sultai post-GRN. im heavily leaning towards traverse, or DS variants of either. my gut tells me abzan is better, but its hard for me to ever pass up playing snapcaster mage.
This is an important point, considering this archetype's worst match-up is Tron and we're getting a new sexy 3-drop to deal with it (Unmoored Ego). In that post he mentions one of the impactful 3-drops being Fulminator. Can you imagine Unmoored Ego? Against Bridgevine naming Bridge, or Tron naming Tower, or Storm naming Grapeshot, or Scapeshift naming Valakut. The applications are endless, and Noble powers this out on turn 2
Maybe a blend of Abzan & Sultai with Nobles helping to meet in the middle is the next level of BGx? Although with all the Assassin's Trophy that will be running around, I think 4 colors will be too much on the manabase.
Could this be the return of Siege Rhino? I would imagine he holds a sword (or skull) quite well..
Also in wondering what the best equip package is for Junk in modern? And how many SFM?
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Storm and KCI can't win with Kambal on the battlefield. Same story though, they have a few ways to deal with it
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Restoration Angel can turn a tapped Tarmogoyf into a blocker. Or she can save a pre-delirium Flayer from a Lightning bolt. Maybe she is a little underwhelming and just not worth it. I feel like she wants to be played alongside Thragtusk too which might be too much to fit into one deck
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4 Tarmogoyf
3 Grim Flayer
3 Siege Rhino
2 Restoration Angel
Spells (21)
3 Thoughtseize
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Collective Brutality
3 Fatal Push
2 Assassin's Trophy
2 Path to Exile
3 Unburial Rites
3 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Liliana of the veil
Lands (20)
3 Blooming Marsh
4 Verdant catacombs
3 Marsh flats
2 Windswept Heath
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Godless Shrine
1 Temple Garden
1 Treetop Village
2 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Plains
Seems like you still want Lingering Souls but just no room
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If you've seen their hand and know they're holding a white card, then it might be worth it to cut them off from white. I'll agree with that. Or if you need to kill an Eidolon when they're almost out of cards anyway ( so the ramp won't matter)
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But it's only a 2-color deck. All their fetches are still gunning for R&W. It's not likely that Trophy will be locking any 2-color opponent out of a color. And even if you do lock them out of white, it only shuts down 8 cards from their main deck
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Humans 10% (bad)
Burn 8% (bad)
Affinity 6% (mediocre)
Spirits 5% (bad)
Jund & Junk 4+1% (mediocre)
Death's Shadow 2% (GDS - Mediocre, 4CS - Bad)
GWx Vizier Combo 2% (bad)
Amulet Titan 1% (mediocre)
Keep in mind I'm referring to how AT compares specifically to Abrupt decay in these match-ups. Not that it's completely dead in the "bad" match-ups I've cited, just that Decay would be strongly preferred. Now let's look at the metagame breakdown of decks where Trophy is favored over Decay. (In this second list, "good" implies Trophy is preferred for some critical targets but Decay is still important and useful. "Great" implies you'll almost always prefer Trophy over Decay)
UWx Control 13% (good)
Tron 4% (great)
KCI 3% (great)
Hollow One 4% (great)
Mardu Pyro 3% (good)
Infect 2% (good)
For my assessments I've factored in which perms are relevant that Decay can't hit and how badly ramping your opponent can screw you over in a match-up.
26% you will strongly prefer Abrupt Decay over Assassin's Trophy
11% you will strongly prefer Assassin's Trophy over Abrupt Decay.
Now there's something to be said for the matches you actually want to hedge your main deck against, such as Tron. Shoring up the Tron game (our deck's arch nemesis) is probably worth more than the metagame presence breakdown suggests. This all of course depends on what meta you're talking about and how much you can anticipate.
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I'm glad you brought up this point. Have you noticed how IOK outnumbers TS is nearly every deck that uses both (except Shadow for obvious reasons). IOK is obviously far more narrow but it has no drawback. Then why on Earth is the split usually 4iok/2ts rather than reversed? Your logic here is already proven (incorrect) by the way people play TS and IOK.
I'm not saying run Decay instead or run more Decays than Trophy, even. But there are relevant targets (albeit rare) in UW and Tron for Decay so it's not totally dead, and the fact that it's superior to Trophy in at least 25% of (other) match-ups in the metagame leads to believe that running small and equal numbers of each is probably correct, but that all depends on what metagame you're talking about. Local where you know what 80% of the players are on? Great, make the call. But in an open meta or competitive REL, I would say to be conservative with assassinating your opponents trophies 😁
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Agree completely. The untapped land makes it worse than PTE most of the early turns
This part I disagree with.. Burn, Spirits, Humans, & Jund are all very popular decks in the format and Decay is actively better than Trophy here. I wouldn't want trophy at all for these matches (or maybe 1x post board against Jund) and Decay is so good especially against humans/spirits because it takes care of AEther Vial and nearly all creatures they use.
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I agree with everything this guy is saying in his last 2-3 posts. *Golf clap*
Trophy is good for us in some critical matches but it doesn't replace decay, and I think decay is still better more often than Trophy (in the current metagame)
Just the existence of Trophy (and thus increase in Tarmogoyf metagame presence) will increase the number of Spell Snares (even mentioned in UW forum), which then makes Decay even more relevant.
Personally I'm loving all the Trophy hype because I'll be playing Sultai mid-range in the new metagame and eating other BGx decks for breakfast with my Spell Snares and Abrupt Decays, while they're ramping me into turn 3 JTMS
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Against Humans, Vizier Combo, Elves & Spirits - Decay works just fine without giving them the extra land and ramping them into a Coco or other Mana-intensive plays. If they happen to play Worship post-board then Trophy would be significant.
Against Jund - Trophy handles manlands and BBE, which is relevant but also feel that not ramping them is relevant in this match-up. Personally I would want both for this match, leaning heavier on decay because it handles the scariest threats (LOTV, Bob, Tarmogoyf) without ramping them.
Against Tron - obviously Trophy is leagues better. Nothing more to be said. It's no substitute for Fulminator though IMHO. If you Trophy a land, they are still neutral on land count and can still realistically hard cast things like Wurmcoil and Thragtusk. I like to play LD against them.
Against UWx Control - Trophy takes care of some key cards that Decay misses, BUT the Counterspell protection is relevant enough that I would want both in this match-up. Decay still handles pre-flip SFA, Vendilion and Detention Sphere.
Against H1 and Bridge Vine - no reason to use Decay at all for these matches. (PTE is your main MVP here)
Infect - they have counterspells so again I would want both. Decay for Blighted Agent and Trophy for Inkmoth.
KCI - decay doesn't hit their main card so Trophy is certainly important. I'm not sure how difficult this match-up is for BGx anyways (feels extremely favored to me in Sultai and BG Rock)
Storm - Trophy is pointless here because they have counterspells and their only relevant perms are under 3 CMC anyways.
Any other tier archetypes I'm forgetting?
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And the reason those cards are played in Sultai instead of other color config is because of Abrupt Decay. (I understand they are also played in other colors too)
Trophy is now the reason to play BGx so it's up to us to figure out the best color compliment
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This is an important point, considering this archetype's worst match-up is Tron and we're getting a new sexy 3-drop to deal with it (Unmoored Ego). In that post he mentions one of the impactful 3-drops being Fulminator. Can you imagine Unmoored Ego? Against Bridgevine naming Bridge, or Tron naming Tower, or Storm naming Grapeshot, or Scapeshift naming Valakut. The applications are endless, and Noble powers this out on turn 2
Maybe a blend of Abzan & Sultai with Nobles helping to meet in the middle is the next level of BGx? Although with all the Assassin's Trophy that will be running around, I think 4 colors will be too much on the manabase.
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