I can see the utility aspect of Goblin Guide too, since it can do 2 and then chump block, or force removal, while Vexing Devil moves slower and gives your opponent more room to play
Yeah, in essence you get to make the decisions about the line of play with Guide, whereas with Vexing Devil your opponent makes those decisions for you. So ends up being the optimal line vs the sub-optimal line, and insofar you see the difference between the performance of each in practice.
With competitive level results though? That’s what I mean by successful decks. I’ve seen (and done) all sorts of unorthodox stuff as well, but it doesn’t really mean anything in the absence of results.
Agree, up to 12 creatures is perfectly fine. Eidolon is pretty much an auto-include 4-of. I'd also struggle to find a successful deck that doesn't run a full set of Goblin Guide, unless they are trying to make a point of going creatureless.
Lavamancer a meta card, but it still advances the game-plan pretty well even against a deck it isn't necessarily 'good' against. Its main detriment is that it's a bit slow, so against fast combo in specific it tends to be weaker.
Regarding your original question regarding Vexing Devil. You have hit the nail on the head about why it is an awkward card to run in Burn. Very much similar to why Black Vise hasn't been played since being unbanned.
Mainly because of the access to a ton more quality options in legacy. Modern doesn’t have Chain Lightning, Price of Progress, Fireblast, etc. Also, meta often makes Grim Lavamancer much more valuable. Swiftspear is definitely a good card and you could run 4-of, it just depends on what sort of build you are going for. It just falls a little short of being a Core card, because the bar is higher.
That’s variance. That’s magic. You can include as many as you want of a particular answer in the side. The trick is to have answers for all the likely matchups you think you need help with. We only have 15 sideboard slots. So often that means only having 1 or 2 cards for a specific matchup. If you can include cards that are good for multiple different matchups, then that helps save slots for others.
How do you get that card in your hand to play with any kind of consistency?
You either get it or don’t. Mulligan for it if it’s super important. Otherwise, the point of a sideboard is to swap out cards which are weak in a matchup for cards that are bombs. This won’t necessarily make any difference for a particular game, but over the course of many games will have a significant effect.
An example of this is siding is out Searing Blazes for Pillars vs Storm. Blazes are more or less dead-draws, whereas Pillar is a bomb. Drawing a Pillar makes you a favourite to win, while drawing the Blaze means you’re more likely to lose. So over the course of many games, of the 10% of games were you draw the Pillar over Blaze, you are winning those games rather than losing them. That could mean improving the overall matchup by 5-10%.
You want to splash, then splash. Though the concept is not new. People have been suggesting it in this thread for years. I can find a decklist on MTGTop8 from 2010 running a pair of Plateau.
However, Mono-Red accounts for 97% of successful Burn lists. As such, it still appears be the better EV choice, despite certain matchup weaknesses.
Yeah, Eidolon and Pillar are your main goto's for Storm style combos. It also works pretty well for Elves. Eidolon though is pretty much good against everything, but Storm in particular nearly folds to a resolved one.
For stuff like Reanimator and Dredge combos you need dedicated graveyard hate in the sideboard and hope that they don't get the nut draw. They tend to be a bit faster than us, and we otherwise have no other way to interact. Game 1 we have to get a bit lucky. 2 and 3 we have to mulligan aggressively.
Their are other combos that are difficult for us to interact with, like Sneak & Show, and outside of hoping to have an Ensnaring Bridge ready to reveal off their Show and Tell, our main weapon is just speed and luck. They tend to be a bit slower, so our consistency is not a bad thing to rely on here.
Then there are hopeless "combo" matchups like Enchantress which just cannot really be handled with the normal sorts of tools. You have to go quite out of your way to have an answer and in general its not worth the sideboard space to worry about.
A lot of the more general sequencing is mainly the same. If you are familiar with the format and meta decks then that’s probably the biggest hurdle.
Some tips of the top of my head.
Deathrite and Stoneforge are generally must kill early. Lifegain activations or an early Batterskull can ruin you plans.
Delver also sometimes needs to be bolted. It’s more of a race math thing, but keep in mind they have counters.
Be careful of Daze. This one can easily catch you out being new to Legacy. Playing Rift Bolt T1 is better than Guide in these scenarios. Sometimes better to slow down to play around it.
Similarly, be careful of Stifle on T1 targeting your fetch. Best to play basics first when possible.
Make sure you float mana before sacrificing mountains to Fireblast. Daze and Spell Pierce are pretty annoying if you could have paid.
Don’t crack your fetches if you don’t need to. None of your lands hurt to come in untapped so better to hold for Blaze and other fringe interactions.
Be careful when you cast Chain Lightning against a deck with Red mana. It’s easy to think of it as a sorcery speed Bolt but there is more text than that.
Against decks like Elves and Infect, Grim is your best T1 play. These are the creature combo type matchups where you become a control deck.
Against decks like Storm and Elves, Eidolon is your best T2. You want to put the brakes on them going off ASAP.
Against decks like Dredge and Reanimator, having a relevant sideboard graveyard hate card probably matters more than a well stocked hand.
Against the mirror, plan is to have the last creature on board. Learn how to use Eidolon properly to lock them. Also I have a hunch being on the draw is better.
Basic plan against Counterbalance is to build up mana and cards in hand and hit them with a big end of turn flurry, followed by an untap your turn follow up. Overwhelm their resources with staggered CMC sequences.
Lots more little edges depending on the matchup, but just general rule is to really pay attention to your timing. You have to keep track of what your opponent’s deck is going almost more than your own.
For a win on turn 4, magma jet is just as good as any of the cards i mentioned above, isnt it?
No. And that is pretty explicit. I think Darkview looks at analysis the best way. Though 1.7 damage for the scry seems generous. I’d be interested in seeing how he came to that figure. Either way, that “damage” is delayed.
Yeah, Main suggestion I would have regards Eidolon. Eidolon took Burn from a gimmick deck to a legitimately competitive deck. The other choices are debatable. Eidolon is not. Though, I vaguely remember this being discussed last time as well.
Yeah, in essence you get to make the decisions about the line of play with Guide, whereas with Vexing Devil your opponent makes those decisions for you. So ends up being the optimal line vs the sub-optimal line, and insofar you see the difference between the performance of each in practice.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I had to search back to 2012 on MTGTop8 decklists (competitive level or better) to find one without a full set of Goblin Guide.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Regarding your original question regarding Vexing Devil. You have hit the nail on the head about why it is an awkward card to run in Burn. Very much similar to why Black Vise hasn't been played since being unbanned.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
You either get it or don’t. Mulligan for it if it’s super important. Otherwise, the point of a sideboard is to swap out cards which are weak in a matchup for cards that are bombs. This won’t necessarily make any difference for a particular game, but over the course of many games will have a significant effect.
An example of this is siding is out Searing Blazes for Pillars vs Storm. Blazes are more or less dead-draws, whereas Pillar is a bomb. Drawing a Pillar makes you a favourite to win, while drawing the Blaze means you’re more likely to lose. So over the course of many games, of the 10% of games were you draw the Pillar over Blaze, you are winning those games rather than losing them. That could mean improving the overall matchup by 5-10%.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
However, Mono-Red accounts for 97% of successful Burn lists. As such, it still appears be the better EV choice, despite certain matchup weaknesses.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I think so. I haven’t played it much in Legacy, but it’s a staple for Modern Burn.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
For stuff like Reanimator and Dredge combos you need dedicated graveyard hate in the sideboard and hope that they don't get the nut draw. They tend to be a bit faster than us, and we otherwise have no other way to interact. Game 1 we have to get a bit lucky. 2 and 3 we have to mulligan aggressively.
Their are other combos that are difficult for us to interact with, like Sneak & Show, and outside of hoping to have an Ensnaring Bridge ready to reveal off their Show and Tell, our main weapon is just speed and luck. They tend to be a bit slower, so our consistency is not a bad thing to rely on here.
Then there are hopeless "combo" matchups like Enchantress which just cannot really be handled with the normal sorts of tools. You have to go quite out of your way to have an answer and in general its not worth the sideboard space to worry about.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Some tips of the top of my head.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
No. And that is pretty explicit. I think Darkview looks at analysis the best way. Though 1.7 damage for the scry seems generous. I’d be interested in seeing how he came to that figure. Either way, that “damage” is delayed.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)