MB Abrades provide security against Bridges, Lanterns, and Hollow One, and Sc.Ooze works to shore up the matches against aggro, Burn, and GY strategies. I know that it's traditional to run Chandra or Nissa, but I'm not sure they really fit the approach here, though Chandra might provide an alternate vector for winning.
Scab-Clan Berserker has done great work for me in the Skred SB. It is a powerful way to pressure a large variety of creature-light decks. In this role, it's a bit like Goblin Rabblemaster, though their relative effectiveness varies based on the specific opponent.
Now, does that make it a good choice in Ponza? I'm not sure. But I'd definitely be hesitant about throwing it in the MB, given how many decks it's bad against. My hunch is that Rabblemaster is generally better, as we are unlikely to get a lot of Berserker triggers if our deck is operating correctly.
That maneuver has a decent shot on the play, but does much worse on the draw. Chalice on X=2 against Storm probably doesn't happen until turn 3, and they can sometimes go off turn 3 on the play. There is also a non-negligible chance of it just getting countered on the draw. That said, if it lands, it can be hard to remove. Boggles is a bit better, since it's faster and there is a chance to sweep away a Boggle a bit later, but it should not be considered a lock either--they have ready access to artifact removal if they thought to bring it, and they can always try for Daybreak Coronet which tends to be much more difficult to beat.
SC.Ooze is pretty good against Burn, provided you time it well. Gaining life in single increments prevents getting blown out by Skullcrack, and once 4/4 or larger it becomes difficult to attack through or remove.
Land destruction against Humans seems good on the play, less so on the draw. Blood Moon can still do a number on them, though.
Trinisphere helps, but I never rely on closing out a player with pure land destruction if everything in their deck is CMC 1-2. Burn meets that criteria.
As for whether the change nerfs red, I'm a bit torn. I'll miss destroying a Planeswalker with Volcanic Fallout or Earthquake, but having them also not be immune to Bolt because of Leyline of Sanctity is a really big deal.
Yeah, land destruction won't really slow Burn down too much, but if you get a Blood Moon to stick you can likely turn off 4-12 spells (depending on their specific configuration).
This was from the leak that contained many Dominaria card spoilers, which turned out to be right thus far. If Lightning Bolt loses the ability to target planeswalkers, I'll eat my hat.
Currently, if you deal direct damage to a player, you can choose to redirect that damage to a planeswalker they control.
This rule is going to be changed so planeswalkers are targeted directly. Many cards will receive errata. Cards that target a player will have planeswalker added to the list of potential targets (think Lightning Bolt). Cards that damage without targeting will work as written, and will lose the ability to incidentally damage planeswalkers (think Earthquake).
Yeah, I'd argue that this is one of a handful of decks that really don't likely benefit from Damping Sphere. Anything Sphere counters is, for the most part, an already good matchup for Ponza.
I'm noticing that adopting BBE seems pretty popular. I'm not sure it's for me, though.
I think about this comparison: BBE, at best, yields a 3/2, a lava spike (haste), and a Moon/Rain/Tracker/Bolt. But it can also be a 3/2 plus a ramp spell. Odds are typically about 2:1, in most builds. That's not bad, and can lead to some really aggressive and powerful plays.
On the other hand, MAW yields a guaranteed land destruction effect, plus ramp. That reliable ramp means you can more easily play cards like Dragons and Titans that take over a game quicker. It's easier to build around and plan with/for, but doesn't have the same unexpected game-flipping potential.
I think I'm going to stick with a traditional build for the moment. Not that there's anything wrong with BBE (as the results clearly show it's good), but it's just not as much my style.
I used to think about it that way too; that hitting ramp sucked. But if you stop to think about it; hitting that Ramp basically means you're not going to topdeck that ramp. That ramp also just got played for you, which is basically as though you cast a Mwonvuli acid moss but instead of land de, you got a 3/2 hasty. In that way, BBE actually is helping you speed thru those bad topdecks. If you flip 4 lands before you hit a ramp, you were basically going to lose that game and BBE saved you. Think about it. We don't have card selection. We're at the mercy of our libraries and thats why we have some nongames where we just flood or ramp out (which accounts for half our cards) and do one/two things or even nothing until we die.
To account for the loss of MAM, we run Molten rain which also comes off the BBE cascade. Its not as consistent in the Land Des department, but BBE's cascade more than makes up for it. As a bonus, we are more consistent in T2 land des now, since you will not always be getting that sweet sweet arbor into sprawl action. Starting hand with 2 lands and a sprawl and 2-3 rains can generate a lot of salt
I'm not very experienced with the current iteration of Ponza or BBE, but I know that statistical analysis is a bit off. First, there is an equal chance that (a) BBE cuts through a bunch of bad topdecks, versus (b) wherever BBE takes us to has a bunch of bad topdecks waiting. The difference is that we now have a bit more knowledge of our odds (based on the cards we sent to the bottom). Second, MAM forces a shuffle right then while pulling out a land; this slightly improves the odds of not drawing dead (though not much); any stack of dead draws would be reshuffled, but we may still end up with a new one. Statistically, the odds of drawing dead are about the same.
I also don't see how BBE improves the odds of any land-destruction scenario (speed or volume) versus MAM. Turn 1 Elf, turn 2 Rain, turn 3 BBE into Rain does not look much different to me than a turn 3 MAM, save that you have a creature and may have hit your opponent, while the other can cast a Dragon or Titan next turn.
The question really is whether a guaranteed Winter's Grasp + Stomping Grounds is better than a guaranteed 3/2 Haste plus whatever your odds of different cards are. That, in turn, depends on three things: metagame, surrounding build, and preferred playstyle.
Top 8 in a monthly (38players) over the weekend. 4-1-1 into Top8 split.
Match 1 - UW Midrange W 2-0
Blood moons got me there. Drew 10 non forest lands in a row after I got a moon out in g2... while both of us were trying to top deck a basic. Match 2 - Naya Burn L 0-2
Burn dream hand. T2 Courser couldn't save me from a T4 death both games. Naya is way faster then Boros against Ponza. Match 3 - Grishoalbrand W 2-0
LDs, graveyard hate and opponent whiffing. Match 4 - Amulet Titan W 2-1
Blood moons. Win or lose by the moon. This match up got a lot better after the Moon ruling change since IMA Match 5 - Lantern Control W 2-0
BBEs got there before he can stablise. Match 6 - Dredge ID 0-0-3
Dredged some burgers.
Top 8
Lost to scapeshift. Didn't manage to land a moon and I got outplayed. T2 Moon > tracker > LD imo. I made the mistake of T2 LDing which slowed my clock against a ramp heavy scapeshift hand. Only LD if the land ia a Valakut.
Abrades could be lightning bolts in a different meta especially in a aether vial light meta. Courser may be removed for additional LDs as my current list is pretty weak to scapeshift, tron and burn decks if I'm unable to get a moon out. Currently 6-11 against scapeshift/tron decks post BBE unban. Next on the maybe list is primal command.
Sideboard wise, maybe removing either a shatterstorm or fracturing gust for more life gain. Then with my luck, my burn opponents switches to their affinity decks.
Trackers are removal magnets. The only time my trackers survived longer than a turn was against my amulet titan opponent.
Keep testing cards out for your own ponza instead of sticking to whatever netdeck list. Having a deck that suits your playstyle is better than any SCG/GP list. Different meta, different lists. 6 months ago, some players were bashing on trackers, Chandra TOD and PnKs. Look where these cards are now.
To the above posts on SBing against Jund, I remove my BoPs and LDs for all the graveyard hate in my SB. The plan is to outgrind a Jund player. Jund can only deal with Hazoret via discard or LotV -2.
I'm not crazy about Abrade mainboard with BBE. Seems like a recipe for a pretty disastrous misfire on an open board (exactly where you want to just go in with it). Still, seems like you already decided against it. Nice performance in the early round, and thanks for the reports and insights.
I'm noticing that adopting BBE seems pretty popular. I'm not sure it's for me, though.
I think about this comparison: BBE, at best, yields a 3/2, a lava spike (haste), and a Moon/Rain/Tracker/Bolt. But it can also be a 3/2 plus a ramp spell. Odds are typically about 2:1, in most builds. That's not bad, and can lead to some really aggressive and powerful plays.
On the other hand, MAW yields a guaranteed land destruction effect, plus ramp. That reliable ramp means you can more easily play cards like Dragons and Titans that take over a game quicker. It's easier to build around and plan with/for, but doesn't have the same unexpected game-flipping potential.
I think I'm going to stick with a traditional build for the moment. Not that there's anything wrong with BBE (as the results clearly show it's good), but it's just not as much my style.
2. Should I drop down to 22 land, perhaps adding Courser there? The primer hints that 21-22 land, with 3 dual-types is appropriate. That would mean dropping to 2x Stomping Ground.
3. What's the game plan against GDS? I imagine a resolved Death's Shadow is still bad news.
4. The primer recommends Obstinate Baloth. Is that really fast enough against Burn? I see its use against Liliana of the Veil and Reality Smasher, but I think we win those matches anyway. Zoo and Burn look more dicey.
5. Are Roast and Return good options, or do you think a few of these ought to be changed?
6. My experience has been that Primeval Titan, Courser, and Tracker are absurd together. Is this interaction silly here, or is it sufficiently useful to be incorporated?
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
1 Birds of Paradise
4 Arbor Elf
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tireless Tracker
3 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Inferno Titan
Enchantment
4 Utopia Sprawl
3 Blood Moon
2 Courser of Kruphix
2 Stomping Ground
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Cinder Glade
2 Mountain
8 Forest
Instant
4 Abrade
Sorcery
4 Stone Rain
4 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss
2 Molten Rain
2 Obstinate Baloth
1 Blood Moon
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Beast Within
3 Roast
3 Anger of the Gods
MB Abrades provide security against Bridges, Lanterns, and Hollow One, and Sc.Ooze works to shore up the matches against aggro, Burn, and GY strategies. I know that it's traditional to run Chandra or Nissa, but I'm not sure they really fit the approach here, though Chandra might provide an alternate vector for winning.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Now, does that make it a good choice in Ponza? I'm not sure. But I'd definitely be hesitant about throwing it in the MB, given how many decks it's bad against. My hunch is that Rabblemaster is generally better, as we are unlikely to get a lot of Berserker triggers if our deck is operating correctly.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Us: Land, ramp.
Them: Land, Boggle.
Us: Land, Chalice (X=1)
... goes pretty well for us. Whereas the sequence...
Them: Land, Boggle.
Us: Land, ramp.
Them: Land, Rancor and/or Armor and/or Umbra.
Us: Land, Chalice (X=1)
... goes much worse for us, because they can continue...
Them: Daybreak Coronet, attack.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Land destruction against Humans seems good on the play, less so on the draw. Blood Moon can still do a number on them, though.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
As for whether the change nerfs red, I'm a bit torn. I'll miss destroying a Planeswalker with Volcanic Fallout or Earthquake, but having them also not be immune to Bolt because of Leyline of Sanctity is a really big deal.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Well, I might, if I had a hat.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
This rule is going to be changed so planeswalkers are targeted directly. Many cards will receive errata. Cards that target a player will have planeswalker added to the list of potential targets (think Lightning Bolt). Cards that damage without targeting will work as written, and will lose the ability to incidentally damage planeswalkers (think Earthquake).
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
I'm not very experienced with the current iteration of Ponza or BBE, but I know that statistical analysis is a bit off. First, there is an equal chance that (a) BBE cuts through a bunch of bad topdecks, versus (b) wherever BBE takes us to has a bunch of bad topdecks waiting. The difference is that we now have a bit more knowledge of our odds (based on the cards we sent to the bottom). Second, MAM forces a shuffle right then while pulling out a land; this slightly improves the odds of not drawing dead (though not much); any stack of dead draws would be reshuffled, but we may still end up with a new one. Statistically, the odds of drawing dead are about the same.
I also don't see how BBE improves the odds of any land-destruction scenario (speed or volume) versus MAM. Turn 1 Elf, turn 2 Rain, turn 3 BBE into Rain does not look much different to me than a turn 3 MAM, save that you have a creature and may have hit your opponent, while the other can cast a Dragon or Titan next turn.
The question really is whether a guaranteed Winter's Grasp + Stomping Grounds is better than a guaranteed 3/2 Haste plus whatever your odds of different cards are. That, in turn, depends on three things: metagame, surrounding build, and preferred playstyle.
I'm not crazy about Abrade mainboard with BBE. Seems like a recipe for a pretty disastrous misfire on an open board (exactly where you want to just go in with it). Still, seems like you already decided against it. Nice performance in the early round, and thanks for the reports and insights.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
I think about this comparison: BBE, at best, yields a 3/2, a lava spike (haste), and a Moon/Rain/Tracker/Bolt. But it can also be a 3/2 plus a ramp spell. Odds are typically about 2:1, in most builds. That's not bad, and can lead to some really aggressive and powerful plays.
On the other hand, MAW yields a guaranteed land destruction effect, plus ramp. That reliable ramp means you can more easily play cards like Dragons and Titans that take over a game quicker. It's easier to build around and plan with/for, but doesn't have the same unexpected game-flipping potential.
I think I'm going to stick with a traditional build for the moment. Not that there's anything wrong with BBE (as the results clearly show it's good), but it's just not as much my style.
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB
1 Birds of Paradise
4 Arbor Elf
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Tireless Tracker
3 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Inferno Titan
Enchantment
4 Utopia Sprawl
3 Blood Moon
2 Courser of Kruphix
2 Stomping Ground
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Cinder Glade
2 Mountain
8 Forest
Instant
4 Abrade
Sorcery
4 Stone Rain
4 Mwonvuli Acid-Moss
2 Molten Rain
2 Obstinate Baloth
1 Blood Moon
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Beast Within
3 Roast
3 Anger of the Gods
I had a few more specific questions, particularly where the primer seems at odds with my instincts (and some decklists I've seen).
1. I noted that the primer recommended 3 Bonfire of the Damned over Bolts MD. Is that still the case? If so, that's an easy Courser of Kruphix spot.
2. Should I drop down to 22 land, perhaps adding Courser there? The primer hints that 21-22 land, with 3 dual-types is appropriate. That would mean dropping to 2x Stomping Ground.
3. What's the game plan against GDS? I imagine a resolved Death's Shadow is still bad news.
4. The primer recommends Obstinate Baloth. Is that really fast enough against Burn? I see its use against Liliana of the Veil and Reality Smasher, but I think we win those matches anyway. Zoo and Burn look more dicey.
5. Are Roast and Return good options, or do you think a few of these ought to be changed?
6. My experience has been that Primeval Titan, Courser, and Tracker are absurd together. Is this interaction silly here, or is it sufficiently useful to be incorporated?
Modern: Merfolk UU // Green Devotion GG // SkRed Red RR
Legacy: Death & Taxes WW // Burn RR // Death's Shadow Delver UB
Commander: Brago UW // Karlov WB