I'd hate to sound like a broken record but I'm not sold on leaving out Faithless Looting. Aside from sculpting your hand very well, it also serves the purpose of allowing you to cast loam twice more reasonably in a turn than Izzet Charm.
The more I've played with deprive the less I've liked it in matchups that aren't Tron, and even then it's usually not enough to stop them. To that end, perhaps it should be in the side? It's such an awkward card sometimes.
Regarding the Tron matchup, I really don't think it's salvageable. If they "go off" and assemble in the first five turns or so there's nothing we can do without drawing magically into Ghost Quarter every game. Such a crap shoot. Sowing Salt seems a turn too slow. They have imminence and pressure that we lack.. Could LD be the answer? Boom/Bust and Stone Rain? It will slow our kill down but if we stop them from casting Karns, Mindslaver locks and Eldrazi early we should be able to grind them out if it goes long.
I think we need to invest heavily in beating them.. as it's the only strategy that really goes over the top on us. The Twin decks (POD or standard) are all easy enough to beat by playing carefully.. Tron just dunks on us.
EDIT: It's worth noting that Scapeshift is starting to gather some steam.. so the LD package might serve double duty in the coming months.
My two major concerns with your list are the inclusion of Grim Lavamancer and Worm Harvest.
Most Loam players stopped running Harvest a long time ago. In a field of Pod, Combo and Tron a bunch of little 1/1s aren't getting you there fast enough. Also, this deck really wants to function on 3, sometimes 4 lands. Tapping out on five means you're not activating Loam, you're not activating DRS, you're not looting for more Loam triggers.. and the downside of sometimes taking 5 from Bob equals one unplayable card. Who is it good against?
As for Lavamancer, it might be a matter of taste.. but between DRS and Loam, I don't know how often he might be relevant. I really -really- like the card, but aside from the line of:
T1: Fetch, crack, Lavamancer
T2: Fetch, crack, kill your bird.
After that.. I don't see it. I'd take take DRS over it every day.
I'm finding that the RUG list is a good turn or two slower to assemble the combo most games. While both lists are very, very weak to Abrupt Decay, the Jund list can disrupt the opponents hand enough where a midgame Assault is likely to stick.
The counter suite of RUG is pretty good against midrange and control decks (which don't really exist in the format in any notable way). It's about two turns too slow against the aggressive red decks. I could never stabilize. The matchup against Zoo/bant is salvageable only with sweepers. I think we need Volcanic Fallout in the maindeck.. but where? And at what cost?
I have liked Thought Scour and (sometimes) Izzet Charm, but they both severely lack the digging power of Faithless Looting. One major factor is that Looting is still valuable when milled. Charm being EOT has won me some games but it feels.. clunky.
Running Deathrite without black mana has been wasteful. Turn 2 Jace is neat, but I'm rarely comfortable dropping a turn 2 Assault without a grip full of lands. Neither play is nearly as strong as a turn 2 Lili.
Killing big Goyfs is a problem for the deck, that goes without saying. Not having Abrupt Decay sucks.. but up until recently the Jund list didn't have it either so maybe we're a bit pampered.
As much as I like the deck and want it to be legit, I feel like there are too many missing pieces.. However a splash of blue for Snapcaster and some utility may be useful moving forward.
This is the coolest deck in modern. No joke. And very reasonable for high school budgets
Does it actually perform? It looks really cool, but how does it do vs. the current meta?
Edit: How would the deck benefit from cards like Lingering Souls? I'm going to test this.
I'm satisfied with it against most of the field, however it lacks the quick kills that the "standard" Assault Loam list can draw into. The storm match-up is poor game 1 and then a toss up game 2.
I've never had a hard time against affinity, bant, or delver/tempo. Jund and Pod are both even g1 and favourable after boarding. Our game against tron is soft across the board but salvageable if you get the combo together quickly or resolve an early Swan. I haven't tested against dredgevine thoroughly enough to comment on it, but keeping Vengevine off the table shouldn't be -too- hard considering the vast amount of removal. RDW can be troublesome (as I removed the Timely Reinforcements from the yard in favour of the counter suite). Given the rise of Eggs, Epic Storm and Dredgevine I think the sideboard needs a concession to graveyard strategies.
However, the core list is refined. I spent a lot of time testing and sculpting. The manabase is ugly. Very ugly, but the turn you sometimes lose in tempo is worth the 6-8 life you're saving from having a full set of shocks and fetches.
I can't say it's stronger than the Jund Assault Loam list.. but it's far, far more fun to pilot and arguably more skill intensive as our spells aren't as swingy.
How are you feeling about the 2 maindeck Noxious Revivals? I've filled up the spot of the second with a miser's Jund Charm. I'm usually unhappy to see Revival in my opening seven.. how has it treated you?
Which part of Jund are you struggling against? We match them in Lili wars, we can recur ghost quarter against manlands. We have an easier time removing their bobs and goyfs and roughly equal disruption..
Really, we're playing "Jund" in a lot of ways.. the core of our deck (especially early game) plays out a lot like theirs but we aren't slowed down by CIPT lands. We can easily go over the top of their midrange by locking their creatures out with a well-timed assault assuming that you can IoK their pulse.
Our real trump card is Faithless Looting. It allows us to sculpt our hand in a way they can not.. so we're virtually running extra Lili's, extra GQ's, extra goyfs, extra bobs. You see what I'm getting at.
To get back on the actual strategy against Jund, I've found it very important to control their pulses. Most lists only run 3, so if you can bait one out on a Lili or a Goyf before they recognize you're playing Loam, you have a reasonable chance of not seeing another in the early turns.
To me, it feels like we're all but set maindeck to deal with them. Fulminator Mage is a champ!
While I can see the draw of Tibalt, I have to ask myself.. is he a better turn 2 play than Confidant? I think it's a mistake to replace Looting as it reliably smooths our draws, gives us main-phase recursion loam and a sink for dead cards. Tibalt seems too random and his latter two abilities near on irrelevant, in my eyes.
I like 2-2, assuming you're running a MD Darkblast. Incidentally putting two of either/or in the graveyard early feels like a huge waste and it opens up slots to run more IoK + Lootings.
Can't comment on Tibalt aside from saying that a free mill every turn via his +1 seems sweet. If you have 2 Loams in the yard, you're binning 6 a turn and still refilling your hand.. but that may be taking a few steps too far into the magical christmasland.
As for Bojuka Bog.. I really don't think we can sustain a cipt mono color land. My current list is running 1 Lavaclaw Reaches, 1 Horizon Canopy and 2 Ghost Quarters and I still sometimes feel like I'm being slowed down by a turn too often.
IoK > Confidant > Assault is the line we dream of and adding another land that dilutes that is a step in the wrong direction. With that said, I have squeezed in a 1-of Jund Charm to give me some play against Living End/GY Strategies/Goyfs and have not been disappointed. It double-dips as a sweeper against tokens and GoblinStorm, which is worth looking in to.
Right now this deck is in a fantastic position. But (perhaps I'm alone in this?) I'm not at all confident in our Tron matchup and we still have a lingering weakness to Geist of Saint Traft. 2x Pyroclasm 1x Jund Charm helps solve the latter problem but Tron is yet about hoping to draw several disruption spells -and- crossing your fingers that they don't naturally draw more than a single piece of their puzzle.
Perhaps the meta will do us a favor (for once) with the rise of 'new zoo', but for now it feels like Tron is the elephant in the room for this deck.
Have you actually played the matchup? Because the more I test against it the more I feel like they have inevitability on their side. Sure, if you draw in to 3 IoKs and a Crime to take away their whole hand by turn three you can stop them.. but since you can't take away their pieces it's hard to stop them from assembling. And we really have -no- play against a resolved Karn, let alone an Eldrazi.
I've started packing a pair of Sowing Salts especially for the matchup and still can't seem to win unless I draw both Ghost Quarters and they fumble for several turns. It's so easy for them to go over the top.