On the topic of Opals - they're the only reason I'm not trying out the gobots build right now. I'm not spending close to 200 tickets on a playset that could potentially be reprinted in a couple of months. I don't think they'll be banned if cheerios becomes a thing (it really hasn't yet despite all the hype). But if they aren't reprinted - I'll consider picking up a playset. However, if I had a playset – I’d be selling them into the hype.
Now for news: I have played 3 tournaments/leagues over the last 2 weeks on MTGO with a mono-red version of my turn 3 build.
Results:
3-2
4-1 (my final match was against Scapeshift which is normally a free win; but he crashed my dreams of 5-0 with sweepers galore)
3-2
I would go over each match; but that's a little more work than I feel like doing right now. I also can’t watch replays of the first 3-2 on MTGO because it was done before Revolt came out; and thus – I get an error when I try to watch the replays.
So I'll just post the deck (there's major changes I was trying out) and some notes:
Notes:
- I’ve removed Goblin Piledriver for right now to avoid situations where I can’t cast him during turn 1 or 2. I just noticed he gums up my hand a lot.
- Spark Elemental instead of Legion Loyalist? In this build – I feel like it might be the better call. In any other build – not so much so. Spark basically deals 6 damage off of a Fury cycle. I might figure out how to get Loyalist into the SB though for matchups against creature heavy decks.
- I tried out one Quest for Pure Flame; which in theory would do good in this deck. It is hit or miss. But of the 20+ games I won; it was only directly responsible for 2 wins (both in matches I eventually lost).
- Sylvok Lifestaff was a new addition to the sideboard. And…. It won me a matchup against burn and I brought it in against a zooish deck as well but never saw it.
- The reason I ran mono-red instead of the RW Kytheon version is mostly because of Fury. In a deck with a Fury plan: Memnite and Mutagenic Growth are basically required. Having 8 non-red cards is pushing it; but 10-11 is basically a recipe against having the fuel to push Fury.
- Another reason is that I take a lot less self-damage now. Which is relevant when playing against other fast decks such as burn.
- Final note: One of my wins in the final tournament came against WG Tron. I won game 1 pretty easily on turn 3. And he just conceded the match. I don’t know if he was on tilt or what; but first time I’ve ever seen that in a tournament setting.
- Overall – I walk away with 6 free Treasure Chests (18-20 tickets) and did good enough in each tournament to get my entry fee back in points. That's 4 straight tournaments entered where i finished above 50% win rate playing a turn 3 variant.
REDMAGE! THE LEGEND! (fanboy falls out of chair) Where the hell have you been good sir?! Goblins has evolved to be quite the power house during you long hiatus. Your turn three Chancellor & Furry combo helped me spawn Gobots. Ultimately, your combo pieces were removed to add more consistency to the deck. And, thanks to some powerful releases as of late Gobots has proven to win and win consistently. If that wasn't already good enough, we just hit another surge of great cards that seem to work well with Gobots. We are all waiting for some more Traditional Goblin cards to make a showing. Come on Wizards! lol But, in the mean time I can't wait to see how your signature deck evolves and anything else you brew up. -Cheers
Great news on Goblins gaining power Spec! And thanks for the welcome!
Yeah, I haven't been keeping up with Goblins in the last 6 months or so (which is weird for the guy who used to run a modern goblins website to admit). But I've played against it a few times. Never really saw the version that seems to be being talked about the last few pages here - but I did see someone running Bomat Courier in a traditional build. And it made sense to me that it should be included in my version.
I got kind of tired of playing goblins after a couple years of either modern or pauper goblins. So took a break. But today's decent showing in the tournament kind of gave me the itch to start playing goblins again.
I'll be away this weekend; but starting next week - I'll begin going over the pages and trying out many of the new ideas laid out. Maybe I'll continue to tune the Turn 3 version; or maybe I'll find your gobot deck (or another deck listed) to be better; time will tell. But I'm looking forward to crushing skulls with the little guys again!
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
Been a while fellas. Hi to all those who remember me. Been away from Goblins for a while as I've been working on mana wall based decks for the last 6 months or so. But this morning - I felt like taking my Turn 3 Speed Goblins into a MTGO league. Ended up going 3-2 (which gets you your entrance fee back + a treasure chest).
Sideboard was thrown together (aka: not at all optimized). But I did bring Boros Charm in just about every matchup. I don't think that means it belongs in the main deck; because the main reason I'm bringing it in is to combat sweepers. But it definitely belongs in the SB.
Match 1 (2-1) Vs. Grixis Delver. Game 1 he basically had removal for every creature I dropped. Game 2, I killed him on turn 3 with a chancellor token, legion loyalist and kicked Bushwhacker and that's with Fury of the Horde + 2 red cards in hand to pitch if needed. Game 3, he stopped a turn 3 kill by angering the gods. I was out of creatures and he was down to 8. I drew Kytheon and played him with Boros Charm and Goblin Grenade in hand. I draw Chancelor of the Forge and he Vendilion Clique's me when I attack which prompts me to cast Boros Charm (this loses my ability to make Kytheon indestructible but seemded worth it) . He for whatever reason chooses not to take any cards out of my hand and leaves the Goblin Grenade. He then casts Tasigur and on my turn Cryptic Commands my Foundry Street Denizen I tried to cast. This told me he must have more counters because wasting a counter on Foundry while you have Tasigur in play seemed bad. However, on my next turn I drew Legion Loyalist; played him and my opponent conceded.
Match 2 (1-2) Vs. Goblins! This is actually a really bad matchup for me. Any deck that produces enough creatures to block my dudes will eventually be able to take over the game. However, I think a lot of it came down to who went first. He went first games 1 and 3. I went first game 2. We won each game we went first in.
Match 3 (0-2) Vs. Burn This wasn't really a match and was a terrible matchup. I did 7 total damage in both games (he dealt a lot more than that to himself with Revel/Fetch lands).
Match 4 (2-1) Vs. Scapeshift Won game 1 on turn 3 with Chancellor token, Goblin Guide, Legion Loyalist, Goblin Bushwhacker kicked and Fury. He wins games 2 by me having to mulligan to 5 (something that is basically an auto lose for this deck) and hitting triple Valk and getting a Titan in play dealing lethal. Game 3, I killed him on turn 5 through not 1, but 2 Anger of the Gods.
Match 5 (2-0) Vs. UW Control Game 1 - he never played a card other than Wall of Omens. And I killed him on turn 4. Game 2 - I killed him on turn 3, but I will note it was with the help of 3 Chancellor Tokens. I feel like this is a great matchup since they're relying on Supreme Verdict to stop us; which if the deck does what it's supposed to - they'll never see a turn 4.
I was testing Bomat Courier out and think I like him enough to up the count of him. He has good synergy with this deck since we are running Chancellor and Fury (Chancellor is a dead card unless it's in our opening hand - Fury is a dead card unless we have 2 cards to pitch to it)
Anyway, I'll probably run it back through league again with a few minor tweaks to the main board and major tweaks to the sideboard. The fact both of my loses came to other aggro decks makes me think something like the pauper favorite Sylvok Lifestaff might be a good call.
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
Ok, so I got a chance yesterday to take Goblins through an 8 man, went 3-0 with it. But I'm going to be honest - I lucked out on the matchups. All were pretty much non-interactive in the "early" game decks. Here's what I was running
In match 1: I faced WB Eldrazi. Went 2-0 against him. Game 1: All he played was lands. Killed him on turn 3 game (Fury of the Horde after a sacing 3 lands to Devastating Summons + Reckless Bushwhacker).
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth. Game 2: I mulligan to 6. See Mountain on top - scry it to bottom as I have 3 lands in hand. He casts duress against me turn 1 (Im not sure why he has duress in a deck against goblins. Seems bad.) I'm holding 2 Goblin Guides and a FSD. That was about all he did. I drew Kytheon my next turn; goblin grenade the turn after that, and he was dead on turn 4.
In match 2: I faced WB Eldrazi again! Went 2-0 against him as well. Game 1: Was much like game 1 against the deck above. Except I think it was a turn 4 kill.
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth. Game 2: This one was a lot more tricky and it was bad playing on his part that won it for me.
His turn 1: He thoughtsiezes me. Sees Sacred Foundry X3. Mutagenic Growth. Foundry Street. Reckless Bushwhacker. Goblin Guide. He takes Goblin Guide.
My Turn 1: I draw Boros Charm. Play Foundry Street and pass the turn.
His turn 2: Plays a land and passes.
My Turn 2: I draw Fury of the Horde. I could Mutagenic on FSD and cast Reckless and swing for 12 with Fury. But I don't want to risk his having removal for FSD. So i attack for 1 and pass.
His turn 3: He plays Blight Herder (i have nothing in exile.)
My Turn 3: I cast Goblin Bushwhacker unkicked. Then cast Reckless Bushwhacker. Swing with all 3. He blocks my 4/1 Foundry with Blight Herder. I Mutagenic Foundry killing them both. He takes 4 and is down to 13.
His turn 4: He plays Ruin Processor. (again, i have nothing in exile.)
My turn 4: I draw and play Kytheon. I have Goblin Bushwhacker and Reckless Bushwhacker in play. But i pass the turn rather than attack.
His turn 5: He plays a land. Thinks for a while and then passes the turn.
My turn 5: I draw Simian Spirit Guide. I attack with all 3 of my creatures. He blocks Kytheon with Processor. I make Kytheon indestructible. He takes 3 from the bushwhackers. Kytheon flips. I make Reckless indestructible.
His turn 6: He plays Ulamog the Ceaseless Hunger. He exiles my flipped Kytheon & Goblin Bushwhacker (instead of Reckless which is mistake #1.) Then he passes the turn to me.
My turn 6: I draw Goblin Bushwhacker. I play Simian Spirit Guide and pass the turn.
His Turn 7: On his turn he attacks with both of his creatures (mistake #2, since he didn't do anything else and left the field open.). I block Ulamog with SSG so that i don't die.
My Turn 7: I draw Chancellor of the Forge. Kick Goblin Bushwhacker. Swing for 5. He doesn't respond which shows me he has no answer. So I pitch Boros Charm and Chancellor to Fury and swing for another 5. Game over.
Match 3: Beat Ad Nauseum 2-1.
Game 1: Steamrolled him on turn 3. Had 2 goblin guides, 3 memnites and a kicked bushwhacker coming his way.
Sided in: 2X Wear / Tear, 2X Skullcrack.
Game 2: He managed to drag out long enough with Pherexian Unlife and Angel's Grace to combo off.
Game 3: Was intense. On turn 3 - I attack with all my guys; it's more than enough to do lethal. He casts Angel's Grace and has Leyline of Sanctity in play. I have Skullcrack, Lightning Bolt, and Wear / Tear in my hand. I realize at that point that Skullcrack is bad in this matchup. It cannot stop angel's grace or Unlife (neither prevent damage). If my opponent happens to be playing Darkness - it can stop that, but not all Nauseum players play darkness. But i devise a plan. I Tear his Leyline of Sanctity on my turn with 1 mana untapped. He attempts to play Pherexian Unlife on his turn. I lightning bolt him; he concedes. GG.
Note: I quit playing Mono-Red and went back to Boros. I've been having way more success with it, which prompted me to enter the 8 man!
Note 2: I constantly think Fury of the Horde isn't good enough since it's a dead card about 50% of the time. But when analyzing results. It is responsible for a lot of kills. And a lot of them come out of nowhere on an unsuspecting opponent.
Note 3: This is my 6th 8 man I've taken goblins to. Since it's single elimination now - some of those are 0 and exits, some 1-1's. 2 where i went 2-1. But this is my first 3-0.
Note 4: I think I'm about ready to take this thing to a daily. Hopefully draw into matches vs. Eldrazi, Tron & Ad Nauseum. Hopefully avoid any kind of Izzet control or lifegain decks.
Note 5: I cheated a bit on the lands, but that's because I am running 8 2 drops instead of 10. It was never really a factor in any game.
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
Yeah Jwelt, that is terrible luck in your report. Flooding feels impossible when you look at the mana base; but it certainly happens. To have it happen like that - is terrible. I will say that playing 8 cantrips might contribute to that bad luck.
I played Goblins for the first time in 2 weeks yesturday on MTGO. I went 4-5 with the speed build. And 1-3 with mono-red lord goblins.
The meta on MTGO is TONS of decks that seem designed to beat creature strategies. Lots of people who turned their Splinter Twin decks into UR/b control decks. UW control seems to be on the rise too; although it's easier to beat than UR control (since UR has so many 2 for 1 cards).
Ad Nauseum is getting big online; seems to be the new "go to" combo deck. That's a good matchup imo; 2 of my 5 wins came against it (it beat me once too).
Reckless hits MTGO on Friday, so I'll get a chance to try him out. I feel like he's not as good as we originally thought though. 2 max will be going in my builds and that might end up being 1 or 0 by the end of it all.
AS far as Manamorphose vs. Gitaxian Probe vs. Mutagenic Growth. I prefer Gitaxian Probe 100% over Manamorphose. It's free and gives you information vs. 2 mana and some mana fixing.
Gitaxian Probe vs. Mutagenic is mostly build based. Mutagenic is better in builds with some mix of Swiftspear, Piledriver, Lords, and Fury. Gitaxian is probably more appropriate in all others (because all Mutagenic can save is Guide).
The biggest problem I'm having with sideboard with the turn 3 version is I can't decide that u want to sideboard at all. Anything I side in to disrupt my opponent means I am playing that much slower as well. I often feel like I just need to beat them first.ie if I'm on the play and can kill the twin player on turn 4 or turn 3 on the draw then I just win. If not I'm not sure disrupting their combo really helps me that much to get the eventual win.
I tend to only bring in SB cards if it's an absolute bomb against that deck. Or if the deck is a bad matchup without the sideboard card(s).
Example: Affinity card get down bigger blockers at the same speed we can get down goblins.
I find Shattering Spree + Forked Bolt can handle most of the blockers, and move the power back in our favor.
But for the most part - I bring in 1-2 sideboard cards a match; and take out something like 1 Mutagenic/1 Fury.
@ jwelt - I like your second list a lot. Might get around to trying it out today. Maybe even with a singleton Become Immense. As far as merging the two lists (that a couple of people are suggesting) - all I can suggest to people is to not play Chancellor of the Forge with Cantrips. It's in the deck because there's only something like a 5% chance of drawing it by turn 3 if it's not in our opening hand. Each Cantrip will bring that % up 2% or so.
As far as the bannings:
Kind of disappointed in the Twin banning. It was a good matchup for me.
Summer Bloom being banned is great though.
I'm going to predict a rise in lifegain decks unfortunately. A lot of them were held down by both of these decks.
Unrelated side note: Cloud of Faeries being banned in pauper might bright me back to that format.
I am in the camp that feels like playsets of Both bushwhackers AND atarka are going to be too much. Reckless is quite janky at times; and I don't think I'll be running more than 2 in any build. Maybe a 2/2 split is the proper split.
I haven't been playing Goblins at all since my week long gold fish sessions (worn out from it is an understatement). Been playing Skred Red, Mono-Red Fiend combo, and Jeskai Prowess.
Probably will revisit goblins closer to when Reckless is released to get the sideboard ready and make some final decisions on which exact version to play in a few dailies.
I read this thread about 10 times a day though; so I'll be around to discuss things. Goblins is my #1 deck.
This UW Eldrazi deck is going to be a problem though if it catches on like it looks like it is. It's not even at full power and is a tough matchup.
As I posted before, I am going to an SCG regional championship early february. I am going to take either an eldrazi deck, or a goblin deck as of now. Can you elaborate on what the eldrazi matchup is like for goblins? I was assuming it would be tough. I am also assuming that the field will be littered with them and I would need a plan. My plan right now is blood moon and pressure, which has been working very well in similar matchups. By similar - I mean other decks that want to grind out with goodstuff and three colors. Realistically though, no other deck is quite like the eldrazi.
I need to test your T3 version once the new gobbo is out, but I might take that list, depending on your thoughts on the previous question. Either way, I would like to discuss some SBing after the new dude is released...
I think a transformational sideboard (approx 8 cards) might be appropriate for that deck - one that is good against both control decks and eldrazi-style decks. The other 7 cards could be the normal stuff.
Thanks for all your work on goblins.
I think the question is: what version are these guys running?
Go into their various eldrazi threads and you see more different decks being thrown around than even.... the goblins thread
Right now: it seems like 1 in 3 decks I play against on MTGO are Eldrazi. And there's versions floating around with like 20 removal spells, discard spells, and sweepers. Those are the versions I'm talking about that seem like a terrible matchup. There's other versions that play more like RG Tron; which has always been a win rate of 90% match-up. If that's the version that ends up getting played more - than scratch my original opinion from the record.
As it stands though - I expect you will see tons of Eldrazi (if the current uptick on mtgo is any indication).
If you run blood moon - I'd say 16-4 is the way to go. When i was running blood moon on 15-3 - I wasn't having the mana for it consistently on turn 3 (when turn 2 is the real turn we want to get it down.)
For mono-red: I think some combination of forked bolt, pithing needle, everlasting torment/leyline of punishment, Shattering Spree, Rending Volley, Dolmen Gate, Molten Rain & Dismember are what I'm going to be working with. No Blood Moon because it will force me to play more lands (but if I were 16-4: I'd play it).
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
I am in the camp that feels like playsets of Both bushwhackers AND atarka are going to be too much. Reckless is quite janky at times; and I don't think I'll be running more than 2 in any build. Maybe a 2/2 split is the proper split.
I haven't been playing Goblins at all since my week long gold fish sessions (worn out from it is an understatement). Been playing Skred Red, Mono-Red Fiend combo, and Jeskai Prowess.
Probably will revisit goblins closer to when Reckless is released to get the sideboard ready and make some final decisions on which exact version to play in a few dailies.
I read this thread about 10 times a day though; so I'll be around to discuss things. Goblins is my #1 deck.
This UW Eldrazi deck is going to be a problem though if it catches on like it looks like it is. It's not even at full power and is a tough matchup.
Mixed feelings with Reckless Bushwacker. Just early testing so will have to continue testing for many more games. But when you're stuck on 2 land, it sits in the hand, and even if you have 3 land and you top deck it, Goblin Chieftain is better. Trade offs between the two with Surge.
Anyone else played some games with him yet?
I think he'ds fine as a 2-3 of; especially if you're running around 8 free spells (Burning-Tree/Memnite/Mutagenic/Gitaxian/Manamorphose.) I definitely wouldn't recommend him unless you're running free spells though.
I don't know if he'll end up a staple. I feel like some people will forego him in order to not be forced to play the above free spells. But he worked fine in my testing. As long as I wasn't running 4.
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
It was grueling work, and I don't think I'm going to touch or look at a magic card for a few days. But I promise that once Reckless hits MTGO - I will enter a few tournaments to try to get it seen more.
And thanks for the feedback on the questions. Going Mono-Red may be the way I go.
Also, think I'm going with 3 blood moons in the SB.
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
This is a great time to come out of the darkness I've been in to reveal a very close to finalized list on the turn 3 varient. Note, this list will not be playable until the new bushwhacker has been released. But before I reveal it; let me go over what I've been doing.
Over the past 5 days - I've slammed about 700 goldfish matches and kept stats on each one in excel. Originally I was just plotting lands, to figure out what works and what doesn't. What I came up with was the following (this was based on the first 200 games I was playing):
Note: Amount of Lands + Simian Spirit Guides drawn by turn 3 (on the draw). I count a turn 2 or 3 win as a win; non-turn 2 or 3 wins are loses. The base I ran was 15 lands, 3 SSGs.
So adding all this up... If we draw 1 or 5+ mana sources by turn 3; the turn 3 rate = 18% (7 wins ,32 loses) If we draw 2-4 mana sources by turn 3; the turn 3 rate = 82% (132 wins, 29 loses)
So it's obvious - the turn 3 deck needs the mana base that offers the best chance at 2-4 mana sources by turn 3. Luckily, I have an obsession with mana probability; so I opened up my tome of mana spreadsheet, and looked for the best probability of 2-4 on turn 3.
The manabases I tested were 14-21. After crunching the numbers on probability of drawing 2-4 on turn 3, and combining the draw vs. play stats - 18 mana sources came out as the winner.
With 18 mana sources: 74.5% of the time - you will have 2-4 mana sources by turn 3. This is better than any other mana base we can have.
This is the end of the mana base question for me. 18 beats all others.
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Happy with the results from that - I decided to plot my next 300 matches card by card. What I'd do with the results is divide up the wins and loses into different spreadsheets then see what cards were drawn for each - I'd throw out the loses where I drew bad mana bases because that's impossible to account for beyond bad luck.
What this would do is show me which cards were contributing most of the wins, and which cards were contributing most to loses. The results were a little shocking.
However, Chancellor of the Forge was also drawn the most in the wins! (which means in 300 games; I just drew it the most period) Then there's a bulk of cards that have all about the same contribution. Except.... Foundry Street Denizen.
Easy math: Foundry contributed poorly to wins + Foundry contributed a lot to the loses = He has to go?
Not quite, but I asked myself: "How can this be?"
The math, I've always used is: If we drop Foundry on turn 1 + 2 red creatures on turn 2 + 1-3 on turn 3 = 5-7 damage. Which is on par with Guide.
However, Foundry is a bad draw beyond turn 1 (especially now that we're running so many 2 drops.)
And with Simian in the deck - turn 1 is used to drop a 2 drop about 40% of the time. If that is Piledriver - there's a good chance Foundry will never contribute to the horde.
So should he be removed? I decided on not dropping him completely. Instead I reduced his number to 2. He's still a great turn 1 drop - I just don't want to see him beyond that.
Extra: Most valuable cards towards the turn 3 win (their contribution to the win - their contribution to the lose): Goblin Bushwhacker, Goblin Grenade, Fury of the Horde, Burning-Tree Emissary (this was a surprise).
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Then I built what was a deck built around the findings on both the mana end and the cards end.
The first 100 - I ended up with a 74% turn 3 rate.
The next 100 - I ended up with a 71% turn 3 rate.
I only tracked mana for this (i now track it all in 3 characters: w21 = Win with 2 lands and 1 SSG). And those results coincided with the findings I originally found. 2-4 mana results in a turn 3 win most of the time. Any other combo does not.
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So this is the deck I plan to actually take to some dailies once Reckless is released.
Yes, Mutagenic Growth has great synergy with Fury (if we hit a guy with it pre-1st attack: he does +4 damage). It can help guide or Piledriver survive a bolt. And it regularly does the same thing as Bolt (help us get rid of blockers.) It's also free (or can be used off the free green from BTE), which gives us less mana to worry about. It also plays psychological games with our opponents once they're aware we have it in out deck. I've also removed Memnite from the 60, so it helps give us more free spells. This gives us 7 free spells (11 if you count Fury) to help cast Reckless; which was fine in my testing.
And now as a bonus: I had 9 turn 2 kills in the final 200 games I played (4.5% chance). Here they are:
#7: Turn 1: Mountain. Cast Foundry Street Denizen. Turn 2: Cast Goblin Guide. Cast 3 Mutagenic Growth's on Guide. Attack for 10. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for another 10. (I did this off of 1 mana)
I have to disagree with this. Cavern's is a must in goblins somewhere in the 75. When you are encountering control decks which make up 23% of the format, and some combo decks which make up 31% of the format, you will see lots of counter spells. Remand, Spell snare, Cryptic, and Mana leak are usually the most common, and will seriously hinder your day if you are not careful when playing your spells. Do they need to be main deck? Depending on your meta, but usually not, in the 75 however? That is a must. You will not beat control mid to late game if you do not have caverns somewhere in there, and that match is hard enough as is.
Now again you don't have to agree with me, but I have been playing goblins for a long time and found that without cavern's there is at least 15-20 match ups off the top of my head that if i did not have cavern's, I would have lost.
The meta (.5% or better) with counterspells (just taking control/combo % does not work because not even close to all control/combo decks have counterspells):
UR Twin (5.67% of meta) - 4 Remand, 2 Cryptic Command, 2 Dispel, 2 Spell Snare, 1 Spell Pierce. - Of these, only Spell Snare is a problem. But it can be played around (drop 2 1 drops on turn 2 instead of your 2 drop). And not every goblins deck has a creature that's a 2 drop. Merfolk (3.22% of meta) - 2 Spell Pierce - Cavern of Souls does not work against this deck. Grixis Twin (3.07% of the meta) - 4 Remand, 2 Dispel, 2 Spell Snare, 1 Cryptic Command. - Pretty much the same counter suite as UR, but even less. Grixis Control (2.45% of the meta) - 3 Mana Leak, 2 Spell Snare. All relevant against us, but They RARELY counter any of our creatures because of the large quantity of removal they use. Scapeshift (1.38% of the meta) - 4 Remand, 4 Cryptic Command, 1 Izzet Charm - None of these are great against us. Azorius Control (.65% of the meta) - 3 Spell Snare, 3 Cryptic Command, 2 Remand, 1 Logic Knot, 2 Mana Leak. - This deck has a lot of relevant counters that can hit our creatures early. Mono Blue Tron (.61% of the meta) - 4 Condescend, 4 Remand, 1 Spell Burst. Condescend and Spell Burst are powerful against us.
Unless you're playing some old school version of goblins that has lords and high curves - the counters in these decks should not have much game against us. The only deck we're really weak to is Grixis Control because of the large removal suite it has. The versions of Azorius Control that also have lifegain we are weak to too, but that's largely because of the lifegain. The rest of these matchups are coin flips or we are favored in.
Even with the lords versions - after Cavern's release: it was only used in about 33% of tournament winning decks. And almost all of them ran 4-10 3+ CMC creature cards (which is where they are more valuable.)
Counters (especially remand) are not good against low mana curve creature decks.
Yeah... NEVER try 14 lands/2 SSG with 10 2 drops! Just didn't work out lol....
So, I had some time to play with Reckless (i used a different 2 drop to represent him; but in my head - i added up as if he was doing what he could.)
In the RW speed build - I replaced Kytheon with him. So I played 50 goldfish games with 4 different version of the deck (this took about 2 hours as I'm getting insanely fast at goldfishing.) I wasn't happy with the results with any of them (as far as turn 3 kill rate goes.) I was having a hard time getting Reckless to function correctly. I was really down on Reckless after this was all done.
I started looking at the cards and feeling like I needed to shake things up a bit. Increase the free spells; and drop the 2 cards that I think keep people from playing this deck (Fury and Chancellor). I did it to see if I could get a decent turn 3 win % without them. And... well... In 50 games - I killed on turn 3 70% of the time. I previously did not think this was possible without Horde and Chancellor, but the new goblin and Mutagenic helped tremendously.
For people who are uneasy about playing the Fury/Chancellor version of the turn 3 kill deck - this looks like it will be a viable option.
Note: I don't think running only Burning-Tree as the free spell to play before Reckless is going to work for you guys. It didn't work for me. I don't think it's much of a stretch to say you should have at least 8 'free' spells or an amount of mana (19+) that makes casting a 1 drop before him on turn 3/4 much more likely.
Private Mod Note
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
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Now for news: I have played 3 tournaments/leagues over the last 2 weeks on MTGO with a mono-red version of my turn 3 build.
Results:
3-2
4-1 (my final match was against Scapeshift which is normally a free win; but he crashed my dreams of 5-0 with sweepers galore)
3-2
I would go over each match; but that's a little more work than I feel like doing right now. I also can’t watch replays of the first 3-2 on MTGO because it was done before Revolt came out; and thus – I get an error when I try to watch the replays.
So I'll just post the deck (there's major changes I was trying out) and some notes:
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Chancellor of the Forge
3 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Akki Avalanchers
4 Memnite
4 Spark Elemental
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mutagenic Growth
3 Fury of the Horde
1 Quest for Pure Flame
3 Leyline of Punishment
3 Sylvok Lifestaff
3 Tormod's Crypt
3 Forked Bolt
1 Electrickery
2 Shattering Spree
Notes:
- I’ve removed Goblin Piledriver for right now to avoid situations where I can’t cast him during turn 1 or 2. I just noticed he gums up my hand a lot.
- Spark Elemental instead of Legion Loyalist? In this build – I feel like it might be the better call. In any other build – not so much so. Spark basically deals 6 damage off of a Fury cycle. I might figure out how to get Loyalist into the SB though for matchups against creature heavy decks.
- I tried out one Quest for Pure Flame; which in theory would do good in this deck. It is hit or miss. But of the 20+ games I won; it was only directly responsible for 2 wins (both in matches I eventually lost).
- Sylvok Lifestaff was a new addition to the sideboard. And…. It won me a matchup against burn and I brought it in against a zooish deck as well but never saw it.
- The reason I ran mono-red instead of the RW Kytheon version is mostly because of Fury. In a deck with a Fury plan: Memnite and Mutagenic Growth are basically required. Having 8 non-red cards is pushing it; but 10-11 is basically a recipe against having the fuel to push Fury.
- Another reason is that I take a lot less self-damage now. Which is relevant when playing against other fast decks such as burn.
- Final note: One of my wins in the final tournament came against WG Tron. I won game 1 pretty easily on turn 3. And he just conceded the match. I don’t know if he was on tilt or what; but first time I’ve ever seen that in a tournament setting.
- Overall – I walk away with 6 free Treasure Chests (18-20 tickets) and did good enough in each tournament to get my entry fee back in points. That's 4 straight tournaments entered where i finished above 50% win rate playing a turn 3 variant.
Great news on Goblins gaining power Spec! And thanks for the welcome!
Yeah, I haven't been keeping up with Goblins in the last 6 months or so (which is weird for the guy who used to run a modern goblins website to admit). But I've played against it a few times. Never really saw the version that seems to be being talked about the last few pages here - but I did see someone running Bomat Courier in a traditional build. And it made sense to me that it should be included in my version.
I got kind of tired of playing goblins after a couple years of either modern or pauper goblins. So took a break. But today's decent showing in the tournament kind of gave me the itch to start playing goblins again.
I'll be away this weekend; but starting next week - I'll begin going over the pages and trying out many of the new ideas laid out. Maybe I'll continue to tune the Turn 3 version; or maybe I'll find your gobot deck (or another deck listed) to be better; time will tell. But I'm looking forward to crushing skulls with the little guys again!
Here's what I ran:
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sacred Foundry
2 Mountain
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
3 Goblin Piledriver
4 Chancellor of the Forge
4 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Bomat Courier
2 Memnite
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Mutagenic Growth
3 Fury of the Horde
1 Stingscourger
3 Leyline of Punishment
2 Forked Bolt
2 Dolmen Gate
2 Tormod's Crypt
2 Boros Charm
2 Wear/Tear
1 Legion's Initiative
Sideboard was thrown together (aka: not at all optimized). But I did bring Boros Charm in just about every matchup. I don't think that means it belongs in the main deck; because the main reason I'm bringing it in is to combat sweepers. But it definitely belongs in the SB.
Match 1 (2-1) Vs. Grixis Delver. Game 1 he basically had removal for every creature I dropped. Game 2, I killed him on turn 3 with a chancellor token, legion loyalist and kicked Bushwhacker and that's with Fury of the Horde + 2 red cards in hand to pitch if needed. Game 3, he stopped a turn 3 kill by angering the gods. I was out of creatures and he was down to 8. I drew Kytheon and played him with Boros Charm and Goblin Grenade in hand. I draw Chancelor of the Forge and he Vendilion Clique's me when I attack which prompts me to cast Boros Charm (this loses my ability to make Kytheon indestructible but seemded worth it) . He for whatever reason chooses not to take any cards out of my hand and leaves the Goblin Grenade. He then casts Tasigur and on my turn Cryptic Commands my Foundry Street Denizen I tried to cast. This told me he must have more counters because wasting a counter on Foundry while you have Tasigur in play seemed bad. However, on my next turn I drew Legion Loyalist; played him and my opponent conceded.
Match 2 (1-2) Vs. Goblins! This is actually a really bad matchup for me. Any deck that produces enough creatures to block my dudes will eventually be able to take over the game. However, I think a lot of it came down to who went first. He went first games 1 and 3. I went first game 2. We won each game we went first in.
Match 3 (0-2) Vs. Burn This wasn't really a match and was a terrible matchup. I did 7 total damage in both games (he dealt a lot more than that to himself with Revel/Fetch lands).
Match 4 (2-1) Vs. Scapeshift Won game 1 on turn 3 with Chancellor token, Goblin Guide, Legion Loyalist, Goblin Bushwhacker kicked and Fury. He wins games 2 by me having to mulligan to 5 (something that is basically an auto lose for this deck) and hitting triple Valk and getting a Titan in play dealing lethal. Game 3, I killed him on turn 5 through not 1, but 2 Anger of the Gods.
Match 5 (2-0) Vs. UW Control Game 1 - he never played a card other than Wall of Omens. And I killed him on turn 4. Game 2 - I killed him on turn 3, but I will note it was with the help of 3 Chancellor Tokens. I feel like this is a great matchup since they're relying on Supreme Verdict to stop us; which if the deck does what it's supposed to - they'll never see a turn 4.
I was testing Bomat Courier out and think I like him enough to up the count of him. He has good synergy with this deck since we are running Chancellor and Fury (Chancellor is a dead card unless it's in our opening hand - Fury is a dead card unless we have 2 cards to pitch to it)
Anyway, I'll probably run it back through league again with a few minor tweaks to the main board and major tweaks to the sideboard. The fact both of my loses came to other aggro decks makes me think something like the pauper favorite Sylvok Lifestaff might be a good call.
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Battlefield Forge
3 Mountain
1 Windswept Heath
2 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Goblin Guide
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Legion Loyalist
2 Foundry Street Denizen
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
4 Chancellor of the Forge
4 Memnite
2 Goblin Piledriver
2 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Mutagenic Growth
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Fury of the Horde
4 Goblin Grenade
1 Mogg Fanatic
1 Forked Bolt
2 Skullcrack
3 Wear / Tear
2 Tormod's Crypt
3 Path to Exile
3 Boros Charm
In match 1: I faced WB Eldrazi. Went 2-0 against him.
Game 1: All he played was lands. Killed him on turn 3 game (Fury of the Horde after a sacing 3 lands to Devastating Summons + Reckless Bushwhacker).
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth.
Game 2: I mulligan to 6. See Mountain on top - scry it to bottom as I have 3 lands in hand. He casts duress against me turn 1 (Im not sure why he has duress in a deck against goblins. Seems bad.) I'm holding 2 Goblin Guides and a FSD. That was about all he did. I drew Kytheon my next turn; goblin grenade the turn after that, and he was dead on turn 4.
In match 2: I faced WB Eldrazi again! Went 2-0 against him as well.
Game 1: Was much like game 1 against the deck above. Except I think it was a turn 4 kill.
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth.
Game 2: This one was a lot more tricky and it was bad playing on his part that won it for me.
His turn 1: He thoughtsiezes me. Sees Sacred Foundry X3. Mutagenic Growth. Foundry Street. Reckless Bushwhacker. Goblin Guide. He takes Goblin Guide.
My Turn 1: I draw Boros Charm. Play Foundry Street and pass the turn.
His turn 2: Plays a land and passes.
My Turn 2: I draw Fury of the Horde. I could Mutagenic on FSD and cast Reckless and swing for 12 with Fury. But I don't want to risk his having removal for FSD. So i attack for 1 and pass.
His turn 3: He plays Blight Herder (i have nothing in exile.)
My Turn 3: I cast Goblin Bushwhacker unkicked. Then cast Reckless Bushwhacker. Swing with all 3. He blocks my 4/1 Foundry with Blight Herder. I Mutagenic Foundry killing them both. He takes 4 and is down to 13.
His turn 4: He plays Ruin Processor. (again, i have nothing in exile.)
My turn 4: I draw and play Kytheon. I have Goblin Bushwhacker and Reckless Bushwhacker in play. But i pass the turn rather than attack.
His turn 5: He plays a land. Thinks for a while and then passes the turn.
My turn 5: I draw Simian Spirit Guide. I attack with all 3 of my creatures. He blocks Kytheon with Processor. I make Kytheon indestructible. He takes 3 from the bushwhackers. Kytheon flips. I make Reckless indestructible.
His turn 6: He plays Ulamog the Ceaseless Hunger. He exiles my flipped Kytheon & Goblin Bushwhacker (instead of Reckless which is mistake #1.) Then he passes the turn to me.
My turn 6: I draw Goblin Bushwhacker. I play Simian Spirit Guide and pass the turn.
His Turn 7: On his turn he attacks with both of his creatures (mistake #2, since he didn't do anything else and left the field open.). I block Ulamog with SSG so that i don't die.
My Turn 7: I draw Chancellor of the Forge. Kick Goblin Bushwhacker. Swing for 5. He doesn't respond which shows me he has no answer. So I pitch Boros Charm and Chancellor to Fury and swing for another 5. Game over.
Match 3: Beat Ad Nauseum 2-1.
Game 1: Steamrolled him on turn 3. Had 2 goblin guides, 3 memnites and a kicked bushwhacker coming his way.
Sided in: 2X Wear / Tear, 2X Skullcrack.
Game 2: He managed to drag out long enough with Pherexian Unlife and Angel's Grace to combo off.
Game 3: Was intense. On turn 3 - I attack with all my guys; it's more than enough to do lethal. He casts Angel's Grace and has Leyline of Sanctity in play. I have Skullcrack, Lightning Bolt, and Wear / Tear in my hand. I realize at that point that Skullcrack is bad in this matchup. It cannot stop angel's grace or Unlife (neither prevent damage). If my opponent happens to be playing Darkness - it can stop that, but not all Nauseum players play darkness. But i devise a plan. I Tear his Leyline of Sanctity on my turn with 1 mana untapped. He attempts to play Pherexian Unlife on his turn. I lightning bolt him; he concedes. GG.
Note: I quit playing Mono-Red and went back to Boros. I've been having way more success with it, which prompted me to enter the 8 man!
Note 2: I constantly think Fury of the Horde isn't good enough since it's a dead card about 50% of the time. But when analyzing results. It is responsible for a lot of kills. And a lot of them come out of nowhere on an unsuspecting opponent.
Note 3: This is my 6th 8 man I've taken goblins to. Since it's single elimination now - some of those are 0 and exits, some 1-1's. 2 where i went 2-1. But this is my first 3-0.
Note 4: I think I'm about ready to take this thing to a daily. Hopefully draw into matches vs. Eldrazi, Tron & Ad Nauseum. Hopefully avoid any kind of Izzet control or lifegain decks.
Note 5: I cheated a bit on the lands, but that's because I am running 8 2 drops instead of 10. It was never really a factor in any game.
I played Goblins for the first time in 2 weeks yesturday on MTGO. I went 4-5 with the speed build. And 1-3 with mono-red lord goblins.
The meta on MTGO is TONS of decks that seem designed to beat creature strategies. Lots of people who turned their Splinter Twin decks into UR/b control decks. UW control seems to be on the rise too; although it's easier to beat than UR control (since UR has so many 2 for 1 cards).
Ad Nauseum is getting big online; seems to be the new "go to" combo deck. That's a good matchup imo; 2 of my 5 wins came against it (it beat me once too).
Reckless hits MTGO on Friday, so I'll get a chance to try him out. I feel like he's not as good as we originally thought though. 2 max will be going in my builds and that might end up being 1 or 0 by the end of it all.
AS far as Manamorphose vs. Gitaxian Probe vs. Mutagenic Growth. I prefer Gitaxian Probe 100% over Manamorphose. It's free and gives you information vs. 2 mana and some mana fixing.
Gitaxian Probe vs. Mutagenic is mostly build based. Mutagenic is better in builds with some mix of Swiftspear, Piledriver, Lords, and Fury. Gitaxian is probably more appropriate in all others (because all Mutagenic can save is Guide).
I tend to only bring in SB cards if it's an absolute bomb against that deck. Or if the deck is a bad matchup without the sideboard card(s).
Example: Affinity card get down bigger blockers at the same speed we can get down goblins.
I find Shattering Spree + Forked Bolt can handle most of the blockers, and move the power back in our favor.
But for the most part - I bring in 1-2 sideboard cards a match; and take out something like 1 Mutagenic/1 Fury.
@ jwelt - I like your second list a lot. Might get around to trying it out today. Maybe even with a singleton Become Immense. As far as merging the two lists (that a couple of people are suggesting) - all I can suggest to people is to not play Chancellor of the Forge with Cantrips. It's in the deck because there's only something like a 5% chance of drawing it by turn 3 if it's not in our opening hand. Each Cantrip will bring that % up 2% or so.
As far as the bannings:
Kind of disappointed in the Twin banning. It was a good matchup for me.
Summer Bloom being banned is great though.
I'm going to predict a rise in lifegain decks unfortunately. A lot of them were held down by both of these decks.
Unrelated side note: Cloud of Faeries being banned in pauper might bright me back to that format.
I think the question is: what version are these guys running?
Go into their various eldrazi threads and you see more different decks being thrown around than even.... the goblins thread
Right now: it seems like 1 in 3 decks I play against on MTGO are Eldrazi. And there's versions floating around with like 20 removal spells, discard spells, and sweepers. Those are the versions I'm talking about that seem like a terrible matchup. There's other versions that play more like RG Tron; which has always been a win rate of 90% match-up. If that's the version that ends up getting played more - than scratch my original opinion from the record.
As it stands though - I expect you will see tons of Eldrazi (if the current uptick on mtgo is any indication).
If you run blood moon - I'd say 16-4 is the way to go. When i was running blood moon on 15-3 - I wasn't having the mana for it consistently on turn 3 (when turn 2 is the real turn we want to get it down.)
For mono-red: I think some combination of forked bolt, pithing needle, everlasting torment/leyline of punishment, Shattering Spree, Rending Volley, Dolmen Gate, Molten Rain & Dismember are what I'm going to be working with. No Blood Moon because it will force me to play more lands (but if I were 16-4: I'd play it).
I haven't been playing Goblins at all since my week long gold fish sessions (worn out from it is an understatement). Been playing Skred Red, Mono-Red Fiend combo, and Jeskai Prowess.
Probably will revisit goblins closer to when Reckless is released to get the sideboard ready and make some final decisions on which exact version to play in a few dailies.
I read this thread about 10 times a day though; so I'll be around to discuss things. Goblins is my #1 deck.
This UW Eldrazi deck is going to be a problem though if it catches on like it looks like it is. It's not even at full power and is a tough matchup.
I think he'ds fine as a 2-3 of; especially if you're running around 8 free spells (Burning-Tree/Memnite/Mutagenic/Gitaxian/Manamorphose.) I definitely wouldn't recommend him unless you're running free spells though.
I don't know if he'll end up a staple. I feel like some people will forego him in order to not be forced to play the above free spells. But he worked fine in my testing. As long as I wasn't running 4.
It was grueling work, and I don't think I'm going to touch or look at a magic card for a few days. But I promise that once Reckless hits MTGO - I will enter a few tournaments to try to get it seen more.
And thanks for the feedback on the questions. Going Mono-Red may be the way I go.
Also, think I'm going with 3 blood moons in the SB.
----
This is a great time to come out of the darkness I've been in to reveal a very close to finalized list on the turn 3 varient. Note, this list will not be playable until the new bushwhacker has been released. But before I reveal it; let me go over what I've been doing.
Over the past 5 days - I've slammed about 700 goldfish matches and kept stats on each one in excel. Originally I was just plotting lands, to figure out what works and what doesn't. What I came up with was the following (this was based on the first 200 games I was playing):
Note: Amount of Lands + Simian Spirit Guides drawn by turn 3 (on the draw). I count a turn 2 or 3 win as a win; non-turn 2 or 3 wins are loses. The base I ran was 15 lands, 3 SSGs.
1 Land + 0 SSG = 1 wins, 15 loses - 6% (ironically, the 1 win was a turn 2 win)
1 Land + 1 SSG = 12 wins, 6 loses - 67%
2 Lands + 0 SSG = 25 wins, 8 loses - 76%
2 Lands + 1 SSG = 20 wins, 1 lose - 95%
1 Land + 2 SSG = 4 wins, 1 lose - 80%
3 Lands + 0 SSG = 29 wins, 4 loses - 88%
3 Lands + 1 SSG = 22 wins, 6 loses - 79%
1 Land + 3 SSG = 1 win, 0 loses - 100%
2 Lands + 2 SSG = 6 wins, 1 lose - 86%
4 Lands + 0 SSG = 13 wins, 2 loses = 87%
4 Lands + 1 SSG = 3 wins, 6 loses = 33%
3 Lands + 2 SSG = 1 win, 3 loses = 25%
5 Lands + 0 SSG = 1 win, 2 loses = 33%
5 Lands + 1 SSG = 1 win, 5 loses = 17%
6 Lands + 1 SSG = 0 wins, 1 lose = 0%
So adding all this up...
If we draw 1 or 5+ mana sources by turn 3; the turn 3 rate = 18% (7 wins ,32 loses)
If we draw 2-4 mana sources by turn 3; the turn 3 rate = 82% (132 wins, 29 loses)
So it's obvious - the turn 3 deck needs the mana base that offers the best chance at 2-4 mana sources by turn 3. Luckily, I have an obsession with mana probability; so I opened up my tome of mana spreadsheet, and looked for the best probability of 2-4 on turn 3.
The manabases I tested were 14-21. After crunching the numbers on probability of drawing 2-4 on turn 3, and combining the draw vs. play stats - 18 mana sources came out as the winner.
With 18 mana sources: 74.5% of the time - you will have 2-4 mana sources by turn 3. This is better than any other mana base we can have.
This is the end of the mana base question for me. 18 beats all others.
---
Happy with the results from that - I decided to plot my next 300 matches card by card. What I'd do with the results is divide up the wins and loses into different spreadsheets then see what cards were drawn for each - I'd throw out the loses where I drew bad mana bases because that's impossible to account for beyond bad luck.
What this would do is show me which cards were contributing most of the wins, and which cards were contributing most to loses. The results were a little shocking.
Foundry Street Denizen, Chancellor of the Forge, Goblin Grenade, and Goblin Piledriver were all drawn much more than any of the other cards in the non-turn 3 kills.
However, Chancellor of the Forge was also drawn the most in the wins! (which means in 300 games; I just drew it the most period) Then there's a bulk of cards that have all about the same contribution. Except.... Foundry Street Denizen.
Easy math: Foundry contributed poorly to wins + Foundry contributed a lot to the loses = He has to go?
Not quite, but I asked myself: "How can this be?"
The math, I've always used is: If we drop Foundry on turn 1 + 2 red creatures on turn 2 + 1-3 on turn 3 = 5-7 damage. Which is on par with Guide.
However, Foundry is a bad draw beyond turn 1 (especially now that we're running so many 2 drops.)
And with Simian in the deck - turn 1 is used to drop a 2 drop about 40% of the time. If that is Piledriver - there's a good chance Foundry will never contribute to the horde.
So should he be removed? I decided on not dropping him completely. Instead I reduced his number to 2. He's still a great turn 1 drop - I just don't want to see him beyond that.
Extra: Most valuable cards towards the turn 3 win (their contribution to the win - their contribution to the lose): Goblin Bushwhacker, Goblin Grenade, Fury of the Horde, Burning-Tree Emissary (this was a surprise).
---
Then I built what was a deck built around the findings on both the mana end and the cards end.
This is the deck:
4 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Guide
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Legion Loyalist
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
3 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Chancellor of the Forge
4 Goblin Grenade
4 Fury of the Horde
3 Mutagenic Growth
Then I goldfished 200 games.
The first 100 - I ended up with a 74% turn 3 rate.
The next 100 - I ended up with a 71% turn 3 rate.
I only tracked mana for this (i now track it all in 3 characters: w21 = Win with 2 lands and 1 SSG). And those results coincided with the findings I originally found. 2-4 mana results in a turn 3 win most of the time. Any other combo does not.
-----
So this is the deck I plan to actually take to some dailies once Reckless is released.
I will be working on the sideboard until then.
-----
Some notes on one of the biggest changes:
More Mutagenic Growth than Lightning Bolt?
Yes, Mutagenic Growth has great synergy with Fury (if we hit a guy with it pre-1st attack: he does +4 damage). It can help guide or Piledriver survive a bolt. And it regularly does the same thing as Bolt (help us get rid of blockers.) It's also free (or can be used off the free green from BTE), which gives us less mana to worry about. It also plays psychological games with our opponents once they're aware we have it in out deck. I've also removed Memnite from the 60, so it helps give us more free spells. This gives us 7 free spells (11 if you count Fury) to help cast Reckless; which was fine in my testing.
And now as a bonus: I had 9 turn 2 kills in the final 200 games I played (4.5% chance). Here they are:
#1: Turn 1: Reveal Chancellor of the Forge, Reveal another Chancellor of the Forge, Attack for 2. Play Mountain, Exile Simian Spirit Guide, Cast Burning-Tree Emissary and use the mana left over to cast Goblin Piledriver. Turn 2: Attack with all for 9. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 13 more.
#2: Turn 1: Reveal Chancellor of the Forge. Attack for 1. Play Mountain, Exile Simian Spirit Guide, Cast Goblin Piledriver. Turn 2: Cast Goblin Guide. Attack for 8. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 12.
#3: Turn 1: Reveal Chancellor of the Forge. Play Mountain. Cast Legion Loyalist. Attack for 2. Turn 2: Play Mountain, Cast Burning-Tree Emissary, Exile Simian Spirit Guide, Cast a kicked Goblin Bushwhacker. Attack for 9. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 9 more.
#4: Turn 1: Play Mountain. Cast Goblin Guide. Attack for 2. Turn 2: Play Mountain. Cast Goblin Bushwhacker kicked. Cast 2 Mutagenic Growth's on Guide. Attack for 9. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 9 more.
#5: Turn 1: Reveal Chancellor of the Forge, Reveal another Chancellor of the Forge, Play mountain. Play Goblin Guide. Attack for 4. Turn 2: Cast Mutagenic Growth on Guide. Attack for 6. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 6 more. Cast Goblin Grenade for 5.
#6: Turn 1: Reveal Chancellor of the Forge, Reveal another Chancellor of the Forge, Play mountain. Exile Simian Spirit Guide. Cast a kicked Goblin Bushwhacker. Attack for 6. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for another 6. Turn 2: Attack for 3. Cast Goblin Grenade for 5.
#7: Turn 1: Mountain. Cast Foundry Street Denizen. Turn 2: Cast Goblin Guide. Cast 3 Mutagenic Growth's on Guide. Attack for 10. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for another 10. (I did this off of 1 mana)
#8: Turn 1 Mountain. Simian Spirit Guide. Burning-Tree Emissary. Goblin Piledriver. Turn 2: Mountain. Kicked Goblin Bushwhacker. Attack for 9. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 11.
#9: Turn 1 Reveal Chancellor of the Forge. Play Mountain. Goblin Guide. Attack for 3. Turn 2: Play Mountain. Cast Mutagenic Growth on Guide. Cast Reckless Bushwhacker. Attack for 9. Cast Fury of the Horde. Attack for 9 more.
----
The main decisions left to be made on the turn 3 build:
1) 15 lands + 3 Simian Spirit Guides or 14 lands + 4 Simian Spirit Guides?
2) Stay mono-red or splash green/white for the additional sideboard options?
3) 3 lightning bolts + 2 Reckless Bushwhacker or 2 lightning bolt + 3 Reckless Bushwhacker.
I think these are the final 3 decisions I'll be making on this deck (unless other options come up/out).
The meta (.5% or better) with counterspells (just taking control/combo % does not work because not even close to all control/combo decks have counterspells):
UR Twin (5.67% of meta) - 4 Remand, 2 Cryptic Command, 2 Dispel, 2 Spell Snare, 1 Spell Pierce. - Of these, only Spell Snare is a problem. But it can be played around (drop 2 1 drops on turn 2 instead of your 2 drop). And not every goblins deck has a creature that's a 2 drop.
Merfolk (3.22% of meta) - 2 Spell Pierce - Cavern of Souls does not work against this deck.
Grixis Twin (3.07% of the meta) - 4 Remand, 2 Dispel, 2 Spell Snare, 1 Cryptic Command. - Pretty much the same counter suite as UR, but even less.
Grixis Control (2.45% of the meta) - 3 Mana Leak, 2 Spell Snare. All relevant against us, but They RARELY counter any of our creatures because of the large quantity of removal they use.
Scapeshift (1.38% of the meta) - 4 Remand, 4 Cryptic Command, 1 Izzet Charm - None of these are great against us.
Azorius Control (.65% of the meta) - 3 Spell Snare, 3 Cryptic Command, 2 Remand, 1 Logic Knot, 2 Mana Leak. - This deck has a lot of relevant counters that can hit our creatures early.
Mono Blue Tron (.61% of the meta) - 4 Condescend, 4 Remand, 1 Spell Burst. Condescend and Spell Burst are powerful against us.
Unless you're playing some old school version of goblins that has lords and high curves - the counters in these decks should not have much game against us. The only deck we're really weak to is Grixis Control because of the large removal suite it has. The versions of Azorius Control that also have lifegain we are weak to too, but that's largely because of the lifegain. The rest of these matchups are coin flips or we are favored in.
Even with the lords versions - after Cavern's release: it was only used in about 33% of tournament winning decks. And almost all of them ran 4-10 3+ CMC creature cards (which is where they are more valuable.)
Counters (especially remand) are not good against low mana curve creature decks.
I have not. would prefer probe for that effect. It's free on turn 1 and gives you ability to see your opponents hand.
Don't know if serious - but he's not early turn aggro enough. For the same cost we can cast pile driver who can do massive damage.
on cavern of souls
The most common counter played in modern (by far) is remand. Remand has very little game against us.
The only card that we cannot normally have countered is goblin grenade. Which cavern does not prevent from happening.
I'd say it has more value in lord versions that have higher curves. Doesn't belong in no lords though.
So, I had some time to play with Reckless (i used a different 2 drop to represent him; but in my head - i added up as if he was doing what he could.)
In the RW speed build - I replaced Kytheon with him. So I played 50 goldfish games with 4 different version of the deck (this took about 2 hours as I'm getting insanely fast at goldfishing.) I wasn't happy with the results with any of them (as far as turn 3 kill rate goes.) I was having a hard time getting Reckless to function correctly. I was really down on Reckless after this was all done.
I started looking at the cards and feeling like I needed to shake things up a bit. Increase the free spells; and drop the 2 cards that I think keep people from playing this deck (Fury and Chancellor). I did it to see if I could get a decent turn 3 win % without them. And... well... In 50 games - I killed on turn 3 70% of the time. I previously did not think this was possible without Horde and Chancellor, but the new goblin and Mutagenic helped tremendously.
Here's what I was running:
3 Simian Spirit Guide
3 Memnite
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Foundry Street Denizen
3 Goblin Piledriver
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
3 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Goblin Grenade
For people who are uneasy about playing the Fury/Chancellor version of the turn 3 kill deck - this looks like it will be a viable option.
Note: I don't think running only Burning-Tree as the free spell to play before Reckless is going to work for you guys. It didn't work for me. I don't think it's much of a stretch to say you should have at least 8 'free' spells or an amount of mana (19+) that makes casting a 1 drop before him on turn 3/4 much more likely.