regarding the shadow mu vs control (UW, UWR or UB) how do you play the matchup? I try to discard and take their answers, but it seems like they have too many. Is it better to play draw go until you accumulate discard before playing the threats? I'm struggling with the MU. Our deck is threat light and if they answer it, it could be a few turns before we get another
This is a tricky one. "Take the answers" is probably a reasonable rule of thumb, but it really depends on your hand. It can be suicidal to just jam your only threat out unprotected, but you can't just sit back. If you try to play their game on even ground then eventually they will just bury you. UWR will just bolt you to death, UW will repeatedly Strip Mine you and planewalker you to death, and Grixis will start looping commands. Jace in all three of these decks just makes the 'sit back and wait' approach even worse.
When you play a discard spell, make sure you evaluate which answers matter. If you have a Tasigur Remand jumps way up. If you have a Liliana Celestial Purge is much more dangerous. If you are going to get Pathed, try to have it happen as soon as possible to get the free Rampant Growth. Accelerating your Snapcasters into flashing back relevant spells can put you on the front foot (Turn three snap plus Thoughtseize, take your removal, play Shadow, etc.). Jaces, Cryptics, and Snapcaster Mages are also generally good targets for discard. They have way more 2-for-1s than you, so turning them into 1-for-1 trades helps a lot. Supreme Verdict is another one to be careful of because Thoughtseize and possibly Collective Brutality are our only answers.
Their cards are much more powerful than ours, but ours are cheaper. They will very rarely be able to cast 5 spells on the first 3 turns, while we do that all the time. It is a very fine tightrope, but you have to balance being aggressive and leveraging your speed and tempo advantages while not opening yourself out to just losing the game on the spot to a single removal spell or sweeper.
I think trying to say 'Shadow is a Midrange deck' or 'Shadow is a tempo deck' isn't overly productive unless it is in the context of a specific matchup. (If your comments above are specifically about how to handle midrange matchups then you are all good^^ Not meant as a criticism but just my philosophy).
The deck is built to be flexible, as most Grixis decks and a lot of Snapcaster Mages decks often are. Against Ad Nauseam, Storm, or Valakut, I am definitely a tempo deck. Against Jund, I play midrange. The only card they have that isn't a one-for-one is Liliana, which is why its Thoughtseize target number one (miraculously surviving Bobs also technically qualify but thats comparatively rare. BBE will also change this math). Nothing in their deck can keep up with Snapcaster Mages. When you turn the power dial just a litttttle bit up to Junk with Lingering Souls or UWR with their own Snapcasters and Supreme Verdict, then you have to adjust and might just want to go under them. Against Affinity with Kolaghan's Command in the deck, you can very reasonably play control for extended periods (but admittedly still want to TBR them out ASAP).
I also think that its possible to change, say, half a dozen cards in your maindeck and have that wildly change how your play style and strategy will go. The decklists will end up in the same category on mtgtop8 and will look only cosmetically different to an untrained eye, but if you take the deck you posted and replace 2 TBR and 2 IoK with the 4th Snap, an LotV, and 2 K Commands then that changes how many matchups play out. It is hard to say which of these is "correct", and in the end I would argue that's an impossible call to make definitively.
No silver bullets here. You just have to outplay your opponent.
Jeskai Control
Out
4 Push
2 Dismember
In
1 TBR
1 Pyro
2 Pierce
2 Stub
Cut removal for counters and threats. Sticking a threat is crucial, so don't tap out for a threat unless you know it's safe.
What are your thoughts on not only leaving Temur Battle Rage in removal heavy matchups, but actually bringing it in against UWR?
I have usually found it to be a liability, when playing against Push and Path, and they end up being quite bad in multiples and one of these getting stranded in your hand can be miserable if you can't stick a threat.
For reference, using this list in the mirror I would want to get rid of either Denaial or TBR (lean towards TBR) in the main for Dismember and Young Pyromancer. Ideally I would want some three-drop heavy hitters here, because your opponents will do the same and the deck as constructed is a single two-for-one away from getting buried. You may just need to rely on TBR for speed to fight this. Against UWR I would do much of the same but I think going down to zero removal is just begging to get cheesed out by Collonade. I often heavily trim but don't go to zero.
Is the idea that with 8 discard spells and two maindeck TBR that you just commit to being as aggressive as possible? There is merit in going to TBR in tricky/disadvantaged matchups, so I certainly understand that. Thoughtseize-Thoughtseize-kill you can take down even the worst matchups. I understand not wanting to fully commit to out-midranging post-board UWR, but I don't think it takes all that many slots to really crank up your grinding potential (maybe three total between Commands and various Lilianas).
I do think there is plenty to think about here but interested in your thoughts on this.
Granted , and you are basically right, but I'll counter a bit. First, for the purposes of my tournament tomorrow, its perfectly fine to have a few 'dedicated' slots because Fatal Push decks are a full 40 percent of the meta. The hurdle for the card to earn a sideboard slot or two for the GP is much higher. Also, about the body and timing. The bread and butter spells for Daredevil are the same as Snapcaster: Serum Visions, Thoughtseize, Fatal Push. I consider it a three-drop in most situations. This snagging and casting a Lingering Souls on 5 is basically never going to happen, because they would generally just flash it back themselves and I don't want 5 lands anyway. Ceiling is Kolaghan's Command most of the time, but an extra Terminate that leaves behind a Piker is fine. Also, the body is essentially the same as Snapcaster. Small, bad against all the big guys, bad against Liliana the Last Hope, good against Edicts. A small but relevant point is that the first strike means it is effective against tokens and opposing Snapcasters.
The new Mono-U Living End seems like a really good matchup for us. I've run a few games against a friend who built the deck, and dropped a single game of about 6-7 due to him having an absolute god draw. Other than that I was able to both pick apart his hand and counter any As Foretolds he was trying to land in order to secure the wins.
I don't think this is an unfavorable matchup, but it can be trickier than you think. The plus side is that if you have keep As Fortold off the table they basically can't win, but they have a couple good tools. Ancestral Vision has been a good counter to Thoughtseize decks for a long time, and that's still true here. We can often just invalidate most of their deck to make it irrelevant, but we don't have any draw threes so its possible that they play the old fasioned blue control 'bully them with extra cards' game. Another one that is easy to miss is Remand. Part of the reason Angler and Tasigur are so good is that people aren't really playing this card a lot, but its very good against Delve and in blue Mirrors.
I’d like to point out that against Living End, discard isn’t nearly as good as you’re thinking. They play 8 copies of their Cascade spells and ~16 1-mana draw spells. Not to mention Beast Within your guy after battle rage. I’d throw some games against that one, it doesn’t navigate like normal combo. You may play a Deaths shadow at 14 life with a fetch in play to Trump their yard flip.
You're 100 percent right. Thoughtseize or Inquisition is still your best turn one play, but you can't just rely on one discard spell and be in the clear. Stubborn Denial is another real winner here, especially if they are going to come with Beast Within and Ricochet Traps. Quick clock plus disruption is the best plan but it is undeniably tricky. You can lose just by cracking a fetch at the wrong time, and Gorilla powered Fulminator Mages can also wreak havoc.
Using Dire Fleet Daredevil is spicey as hell, i love it.
Have you thought about Engineered Explosives instead of Kozilek‘s Return? It’s a very flexible card and can get rid of Liliana in the mirror matches which is a big deal besides beeing good against Tezzeret, Elves, Humans and Abzan too.
Daredevil is a delight. The power level is definitely there for it to be showing up in Modern and Legacy in the right spots. I have been playing with it a bit in Legacy DnT as well. Snapcaster Mage is basically the reason I play Modern but when Daredevil is good its way more fun than even my buddy Thiago. If I know that literally 40 percent of my metagame is playing Fatal Push and Thoughtseize then she is a powerhouse option to have. Time will tell if it has long term staying power in decks, but IMO its certainly worth testing. The other bonus for right now is you still catch people off guard with it and get the 'wait what the hell does that card do?' looks.
EE is something I have on my radar in general but didn't really click for this specific tourney until you mentioned it. That might be a great sweeper option here because its flexible against the mirror and junk but also picks off Blood Moon, Chalice, and Spirits. That looks pretty worth of consideration.
Alright kids, would love a little feedback on some tinkering I am doing leading up to this weekend. I played in the first part of a two part tournament at Hareruya last weekend. 6 rounds of swiss, top 16 advance to the second day, which is this coming Saturday. Crushed everyone and everything to start 4-0, then ID ID because qualification was already guaranteed. List I played with looked like this:
Hard to argue with an undefeated run, but as always there is space for tinkering and improvement. In addition, assuming people play the same decks as last time (not required or guaranteed, but fairly likely), I know the exact expected metagame. It looks like:
5 Grixis Shadow (one of them me)
1 Red Stompy
1 Junk
1 Living End (Jund)
1 Bant Eldrazi (Actually with some red for Obligator, but the same Noble Hierarch-Ancient Stirrings core)
1 Eldrazi Tron
1 Elves (Black, no druid combo)
1 BR Discard (The burning inquiry deck)
1 Green Tron
1 Humans
1 UB Tezzeret
1 UR Madcap Moon
Squeeze that down a bit and we get
6 Three color Midrange
3 Eldrazi and/or Tron
2 Decks where I want Kozilek's Return
5 Random Nonsense, AKA Stubborn Denial-TBR-GG
So I can go a lot of different directions with all this, in both the Main and Side.
Initial thoughts:
Very little graveyard hate anywhere. Don't need to worry about any of that.
No LD ANYWHERE. Down to 4 Shocklands?
Maindeck:
Removal: Lightning Bolt 100 Percent out. No Affinity, only 2 decks where its good. Push is great against half the meta and fairly bad elsewhere. 3 feels right. Lots of mirrors makes me want to lean more towards Terminate than Dismember. 3-2-1 Push-Terminate-Dismember? 3-3-0?
Creatures: If there are lots of mirrors, and the rest of the decks want closing speed, I will look to go up to at least 3 and possibly 4 Anglers. Everything else is fine.
Stubborn Denial: Only really bad against Humans. Functional (but probably sided out) in the mirror, best card in the deck against team random nonsense. 3 maindeck might be fine.
Opt/Serum Visions: No Bolt makes me want Visions. Going up on Denial makes me want Opt. Flip a coin?
Kolaghan's Command: By my count its good in 10/15 matchups. 2 feels right.
TBR: Liability against midrange mirrors, great basically everywhere else. Probably still want one main.
Sideboard: Lets just go down the line:
Dire Fleet Daredevil: Certainly the most experimental and for funsies card in the deck, but not going anywhere in this meta. He's a monster in Fatal Push mirrors, and can also exile those pesky Lingering Souls. Honestly considering playing 3.
Young Pyromancer: Him dodging RiP and black Leyline is essentially irrelevant. Good if the mirror crew are packing LotV, loses points if they come with Last Hope. Daredevil seems the much better value 2-drop here.
Ceremonious Rejection: No Affinity and one of the Eldrazi decks packing 4 Caverns hurts, but it still poops on Tron and Eldrazi. 2 slots for the colorless menace seems fine, also helps a bit against Tezz.
Collective Brutality: No Burn, little combo. Want it for Elves to snap a dude and Company but other than that pretty low impact. I will 99 percent have 2 of these in the board for GP Kyoto but seems like a pretty reasonable cut this weekend.
Stubborn Denial: Probably want 4 in the 75 because they are the best thing to be doing against Madcap, Tezz, Blood Moons, but could easily be convinced to just play 3.
Disdainful Stroke: Good against all the Eldrazi/Tron nonsense, but pretty narrow and no Valakut to pick on either.
Kozilek's Return: Great against two decks, but pretty low on targets in this meta. Ignore sweepers, pump up to 3 TBR in the 75, Berserk through for the win?
TBR: Don't want it against Push, quite possibly the best card against all the other matchups.
Planeswalkers: I am generally a fan of 3, but I could see playing 4. Last Hope loses a bit of value with few x/1s running around. Fun-of Ashiok is also somewhere on the radar.
Graveyard Hate: Seems fine to ignore, yea? Play against Living End and Thoughtseize-Thoughtseize-Berserk them. The BR deck much more of a 'fair deck' than something like Dredge, so Push and Terminate still work.
Artifacts: I love me a By Force in the right meta, but no Affinity and no Lantern means the maindeck K Commands should do the trick.
Thoughts? Observations? Suggestions? I realize this isn't really relevant for something like a GP, but I do think its a good idea to occasionally get those wheels in your head spinning and thinking about matchups, strong and weak points of cards, and how we should be approaching sideboarding.
do we really want to be putting our delve threats out quick?
Yes. Yes, we do.
The fact that you can play Tasigur and Gurmag Angler on turn two is one of the big reasons Grixis Shadow is a Tier 1 deck.
Our only counterspell is dependent on playing an early creature, and our best game plan against basically everyone is quick, large threat plus disruption.
Against something like Affinity, we can sit back and be a Fatal Push deck. Against Burn, Scapeshift, Storm, and many others you REALLY want to be a turn 2 Tasigur deck.
How often do you guys find yourself running out of gas? I find myself running out quite a bit. I know Kommand, Snap and Lili are all options but they are all 3 or more mana. How about Chart a Course? The card refuels and is only 2 mana. The card gels a lot better with Young Pyromancer decks, but there is a chance that this could be a 2 of to help refuel. Worst case it's a 2 mana Sleight and best case it's a 2 mana Divination. What are your thoughts about the mini Treasure Cruise?
My instincts say that if we really wanted Chart a Course then we would already be playing Night's Whisper (Whisper is also probably just better in the deck because aside from the possibility of fueling Delve we don't want to be stuck discarding). I understand the urge to have something cheaper but if the problem is running out of gas then 3 mana options are just as castable at that point in the game. Between Wraith, the front half of Visions, and Scour there are already enough blind draws in the deck, so even if Command and Snapcaster are more expensive the versatility and selection you get are very valuable.
Its fine to dedicated slots to combat x/1s, no shame in that, but you can do better. If you are thinking of playing Sulfur Elemental, just play Izzet Staticaster instead. It is good against Souls but mops up Noble Hierarchs and Thalias, and craps on Affinity.
My favorite card against Souls is still Liliana the Last Hope, and she is a beast in other matchups as well. Lingering Souls has always been the bane of all types of fair decks, but you don't have to play bad cards to fight it.
The article is great. Although there are some things about his choices that i don´t particularly agree with.
This is basically exactly how I felt.
Plenty of people jump in and suggest strange changes based on gut feelings, no testing, or nonsensical logic, but this is a well argued, well thought out article.
I really liked what he pegged as the 'untouchable' core of the deck. If there is anything I would argue with, it is the second Terminate, which could reasonably turn into a different removal spell. Having this slot be Terminate or something similar (Dreadbore, Dismember) is correct most of the time so I am okay with it. The core of the deck is the fact that it gets to play 20-some amazing 1 mana spells, and this captures that very well.
The 4th Snapcaster Mage being a flex slot feel blasphemous to long time blue players, but I see the logic. The deck is very low to the ground (our two drop slot consists of "play two one drops"), and there is only so much room for 3 mana spells. If he is looking to find room for LotV, then you have to be looking here and not at the cheap spells.
I have been playing one Liliana of the Veil in the main deck, and it has been excellent. For a deck that is, at its core, a midrange good stuff deck, slamming the most powerful 3 drop in the format into the deck isn't a hard sell. I think the biggest strike against Liliana has always been that it didn't play well with the spell slots, specifically Stubborn Denial and Kolaghan's Command. These promote holding spells in your hand, which Liliana does not. Plussing Liliana also often entails ditching extra lands, making it hard to full utilize Command and Snapcaster.
The third IoK also makes a lot of sense in this build. A big strength of 6 discard spells instead of 7 or 8 was that they didn't clog up your hand later in the game as much, but with more Lilianas to ditch them later on this is less of a problem. 6 is a good number, but not quite enough to ensure that you can always lead on one. I have always been a big fan of Stubborn Denial to back you up against top-decks and other non-sense, but I understand the argument in favor of shifting to more of a tap-out strategy.
Cutting Denial entirely is still a hard sell for me, but I do think that this approach or the current stock 2 makes more sense than some lists I have seen that bump it up to 3 in the Main. Denial is an absolute powerhouse against a lot of decks, so I do want access to them. That being said, plenty of decks have sideboarded Spell Piece, Negate, Countersquall, and Dispel since forever, so a streamlined, tap-out, discard-focused main deck with countermagic in the side isn't an overly ridiculous idea. This also depends a lot on what you expect to play against. If you play nothing but Burn, Gx Tron, and Valakut then you should definitely be maindecking 3 or 4, but Modern isn't that simple.
All in all, a lot of food for thought in this article. You have to careful not to just say 'well PV is better at Magic than me so he is obviously right', but on the other hand when one of the greatest players ever rights an in-depth article about the deck you are playing you would be a fool not to listen.
I feel like the sideboard is 1 to 2 cards short for the Burn matchup. My current plan is -4 Wraith, +1 Denial, +2 Brutality, +1 LotV. I'd like to trim 1 to 2 Thoughtseize as well. Is Temur Battle Rage or another removal spell the next best general sideboard card against Burn? What other options would you consider?
To make room, I was thinking about consolidating 2 of the artifact, colorless, and graveyard hate into 1 Rakdos Charm. I'm pretty sure Charm is good vs. Eldrazi Tron and Affinity, but would you play it against the mirror? I'm thinking -1 Rejection, -1 Extraction, +1 Charm, +1 TBR/Terminate/Dreadbore.
Would 1 Extraction and 2 Spellbomb be sufficient GY hate for the mirror?
Thanks for any help/advice.
I like Temur Battle Rage quite a bit against Burn, just watch out for their Paths and Deflecting Palms post-board. For something specifically anti-burn, another Collective Brutality would obviously be great, and it has broad enough applications that 3 is not unreasonable. As you mentioned though, Battle Rage, Terminate, or Dreadbore are all fine here. TBR very often represents a one-shot kill, and Terminate and Dreadbore aren't as good as Bolt or Push but they are relevant cards and their strength in other matchups does give them extra value as one of your 15 slots.
If you think that there are enough control/spell based decks, then going above the 4th Stubborn Denial and adding Countersquall or Dispel is also an option. These are quite good against burn while also having applications elsewhere.
Rakdos Charm is definitely a legitimate sideboard option. It is good against artifact decks, and is good against Dredge, Living End and other dedicated graveyard decks. Do NOT bring it in in the mirror, though, because while graveyard hate is fine it is not worth two mana and a card. You want this as a Shatter that also doubles as a hate card against decks that need their graveyard (Dredge, Living End). For the same reason, I don't like Surgical in the mirror because it costs a card but doesn't affect the board or their hand.
Graveyard hate for the mirror isn't strictly necessary, but it can be good in the right form. Spellbomb is fine because it messes with their graveyard Snapcasters and Tasigurs but doesn't cost a card, plus it cycles when you don't need it. The other option is to go for the high impact knockout blow and board 3~4 Leyline of the Void. This costs a card and has deckbuilding consequences, but is powerful enough to be worth it. (I personally don't like this plan but its something to consider, especially if you expect lots of graveyard decks.)
Faeries can be rough, with Bitterblossom in particular being pretty annoying.
Both counters and discard are good. Remand is quite awkward because they play a lot at instant speed and it only really good if you get on the front foot quickly. Ratchet Bomb and EE are pretty close to the same card in this matchup, being "2:blow up the tokens", but I think Explosives is the better card overall and it is not out of the question to use it one 2 to hit BB and Spellstutter. Kozileks's Return or Anger of the Gods are good here. Izzet Staticaster is also great if you have access to it.
I have played againt Faeries players that board into things like Damnnation, if they have this then counterspells are quite useful.
They produce lots of blockers, but they also do a fair amount of damage to themselve so in a lot of cases one good Battle Rage is enough to finish them off. If you can't Battle Rage, then forcing them into a situation where they have to chump block is essential.
This is also a matchup where you need to be careful with your life total. Their creautres all fly and stack up quickly if they don't have to play defence, and Creeping Tarpit also represents a very quick clock if you aren't careful.
Dropped a fatal push ( not sure about it) just to improve my match aganist D&t , I'm sure it's going to be the most played or at least the second most played deck tonight.
TBR is strong game 1 trick, even though I'm not a huge fan of it, it's still works.
You deck looks mostly solid, but if you expect a good amount of DnT and Shadow then I think anything less that 4 Push is probably a mistake. I get wanting some Lighting Bolts, but I think they need to be in addition to, not instead of Push. Bolt is certainly good, and it a much cleaner answer to Displacer and Crusader. On the other hand, Push is in your main color and kills everything (outside Crusader) up to and including Resto and TKS.
If there are lots of spell based decks you cant go too crazy on removal, but if you are playing against creatures every round then there is nothing wrong with overloading on removal. 4 Push, 2 Bolt, 2 Terminate, and possibly a Dismember isn't unreasonable. Going this high would cost you points against Valakut, non-Eldrazi Tron, etc., but it looks very nice in creature battles.
Random Thoughts:
Is there any Dredge running around? The single Spellbomb is certainly fine to have around because it helps in graveyard-based fair matchups as well, but it is pretty light if you want to battle dedicated graveyard decks. (The Flaying Tendrils do help here, I will admit)
If the exile portion of Tendrils isn't needed, the instant speed of Kozilek's Return is a huge benefit. For the record I think that Tendrils is very playable and sometimes the right choice, but I usually rank Return and Anger above it and only use it in specific situations. Any insight into your choice there?
I usually max out on Stubborn Denial first, but I do love me a Countersquall.
I have been playing a single Dreabore lately as well, and I think it is quite good. I have had games against Affinity when I just wished it was a Terminate, but it has also killed Nahiris, Gideons, Lilianas, and Ashioks so it pulls its weight.
So, maybe cutting the Izzet Staticaster makes sense for cutting the 2nd Lilly? They play similar roles, but one of them can also grind.
I value the second Liliana higher than the first Staticaster unless I want something very specific out of the Staticaster. Like you said, Liliana can grind, so you can also use it against Jund, UW, and the mirror and not exclusively x/1s. Staticaster is great against Lingering Souls, but Lingering Souls decks are midrange deck where you will want all of the planeswalkers anyway. The point where I would want Staticaster is if there was a lot of specifically Affinity and Company, but even then is possible you want extra Kozilek's Return slots. There are only so many slots for 3 drops, and drawing 2 or 3 of them is a way to trip up and get run over even in matchups where the cards are great.
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This is a tricky one. "Take the answers" is probably a reasonable rule of thumb, but it really depends on your hand. It can be suicidal to just jam your only threat out unprotected, but you can't just sit back. If you try to play their game on even ground then eventually they will just bury you. UWR will just bolt you to death, UW will repeatedly Strip Mine you and planewalker you to death, and Grixis will start looping commands. Jace in all three of these decks just makes the 'sit back and wait' approach even worse.
When you play a discard spell, make sure you evaluate which answers matter. If you have a Tasigur Remand jumps way up. If you have a Liliana Celestial Purge is much more dangerous. If you are going to get Pathed, try to have it happen as soon as possible to get the free Rampant Growth. Accelerating your Snapcasters into flashing back relevant spells can put you on the front foot (Turn three snap plus Thoughtseize, take your removal, play Shadow, etc.). Jaces, Cryptics, and Snapcaster Mages are also generally good targets for discard. They have way more 2-for-1s than you, so turning them into 1-for-1 trades helps a lot. Supreme Verdict is another one to be careful of because Thoughtseize and possibly Collective Brutality are our only answers.
Their cards are much more powerful than ours, but ours are cheaper. They will very rarely be able to cast 5 spells on the first 3 turns, while we do that all the time. It is a very fine tightrope, but you have to balance being aggressive and leveraging your speed and tempo advantages while not opening yourself out to just losing the game on the spot to a single removal spell or sweeper.
The deck is built to be flexible, as most Grixis decks and a lot of Snapcaster Mages decks often are. Against Ad Nauseam, Storm, or Valakut, I am definitely a tempo deck. Against Jund, I play midrange. The only card they have that isn't a one-for-one is Liliana, which is why its Thoughtseize target number one (miraculously surviving Bobs also technically qualify but thats comparatively rare. BBE will also change this math). Nothing in their deck can keep up with Snapcaster Mages. When you turn the power dial just a litttttle bit up to Junk with Lingering Souls or UWR with their own Snapcasters and Supreme Verdict, then you have to adjust and might just want to go under them. Against Affinity with Kolaghan's Command in the deck, you can very reasonably play control for extended periods (but admittedly still want to TBR them out ASAP).
I also think that its possible to change, say, half a dozen cards in your maindeck and have that wildly change how your play style and strategy will go. The decklists will end up in the same category on mtgtop8 and will look only cosmetically different to an untrained eye, but if you take the deck you posted and replace 2 TBR and 2 IoK with the 4th Snap, an LotV, and 2 K Commands then that changes how many matchups play out. It is hard to say which of these is "correct", and in the end I would argue that's an impossible call to make definitively.
What are your thoughts on not only leaving Temur Battle Rage in removal heavy matchups, but actually bringing it in against UWR?
I have usually found it to be a liability, when playing against Push and Path, and they end up being quite bad in multiples and one of these getting stranded in your hand can be miserable if you can't stick a threat.
For reference, using this list in the mirror I would want to get rid of either Denaial or TBR (lean towards TBR) in the main for Dismember and Young Pyromancer. Ideally I would want some three-drop heavy hitters here, because your opponents will do the same and the deck as constructed is a single two-for-one away from getting buried. You may just need to rely on TBR for speed to fight this. Against UWR I would do much of the same but I think going down to zero removal is just begging to get cheesed out by Collonade. I often heavily trim but don't go to zero.
Is the idea that with 8 discard spells and two maindeck TBR that you just commit to being as aggressive as possible? There is merit in going to TBR in tricky/disadvantaged matchups, so I certainly understand that. Thoughtseize-Thoughtseize-kill you can take down even the worst matchups. I understand not wanting to fully commit to out-midranging post-board UWR, but I don't think it takes all that many slots to really crank up your grinding potential (maybe three total between Commands and various Lilianas).
I do think there is plenty to think about here but interested in your thoughts on this.
Granted , and you are basically right, but I'll counter a bit. First, for the purposes of my tournament tomorrow, its perfectly fine to have a few 'dedicated' slots because Fatal Push decks are a full 40 percent of the meta. The hurdle for the card to earn a sideboard slot or two for the GP is much higher. Also, about the body and timing. The bread and butter spells for Daredevil are the same as Snapcaster: Serum Visions, Thoughtseize, Fatal Push. I consider it a three-drop in most situations. This snagging and casting a Lingering Souls on 5 is basically never going to happen, because they would generally just flash it back themselves and I don't want 5 lands anyway. Ceiling is Kolaghan's Command most of the time, but an extra Terminate that leaves behind a Piker is fine. Also, the body is essentially the same as Snapcaster. Small, bad against all the big guys, bad against Liliana the Last Hope, good against Edicts. A small but relevant point is that the first strike means it is effective against tokens and opposing Snapcasters.
I don't think this is an unfavorable matchup, but it can be trickier than you think. The plus side is that if you have keep As Fortold off the table they basically can't win, but they have a couple good tools. Ancestral Vision has been a good counter to Thoughtseize decks for a long time, and that's still true here. We can often just invalidate most of their deck to make it irrelevant, but we don't have any draw threes so its possible that they play the old fasioned blue control 'bully them with extra cards' game. Another one that is easy to miss is Remand. Part of the reason Angler and Tasigur are so good is that people aren't really playing this card a lot, but its very good against Delve and in blue Mirrors.
You're 100 percent right. Thoughtseize or Inquisition is still your best turn one play, but you can't just rely on one discard spell and be in the clear. Stubborn Denial is another real winner here, especially if they are going to come with Beast Within and Ricochet Traps. Quick clock plus disruption is the best plan but it is undeniably tricky. You can lose just by cracking a fetch at the wrong time, and Gorilla powered Fulminator Mages can also wreak havoc.
Daredevil is a delight. The power level is definitely there for it to be showing up in Modern and Legacy in the right spots. I have been playing with it a bit in Legacy DnT as well. Snapcaster Mage is basically the reason I play Modern but when Daredevil is good its way more fun than even my buddy Thiago. If I know that literally 40 percent of my metagame is playing Fatal Push and Thoughtseize then she is a powerhouse option to have. Time will tell if it has long term staying power in decks, but IMO its certainly worth testing. The other bonus for right now is you still catch people off guard with it and get the 'wait what the hell does that card do?' looks.
EE is something I have on my radar in general but didn't really click for this specific tourney until you mentioned it. That might be a great sweeper option here because its flexible against the mirror and junk but also picks off Blood Moon, Chalice, and Spirits. That looks pretty worth of consideration.
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Polluted Delta
2 Watery Grave
1 Steam Vents
2 Blood Crypt
1 Island
1 Swamp
Creature (16)
4 Street Wraith
4 Death's Shadow
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, The Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Serum Visions
4 Thoughtseize
Instant (15)
4 Thought Scour
3 Fatal Push
2 Stubborn Denial
1 Lightning Bolt
1 Terminate
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Temur Battle Rage
1 Dismember
Planeswalker (1)
1 Liliana of the Veil
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Collective Brutality
2 Cermonious Rejection
2 Young Pyromancer
2 Dire Fleet Daredevil
1 Kozilek's Return
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Temur Battle Rage
Hard to argue with an undefeated run, but as always there is space for tinkering and improvement. In addition, assuming people play the same decks as last time (not required or guaranteed, but fairly likely), I know the exact expected metagame. It looks like:
5 Grixis Shadow (one of them me)
1 Red Stompy
1 Junk
1 Living End (Jund)
1 Bant Eldrazi (Actually with some red for Obligator, but the same Noble Hierarch-Ancient Stirrings core)
1 Eldrazi Tron
1 Elves (Black, no druid combo)
1 BR Discard (The burning inquiry deck)
1 Green Tron
1 Humans
1 UB Tezzeret
1 UR Madcap Moon
Squeeze that down a bit and we get
6 Three color Midrange
3 Eldrazi and/or Tron
2 Decks where I want Kozilek's Return
5 Random Nonsense, AKA Stubborn Denial-TBR-GG
So I can go a lot of different directions with all this, in both the Main and Side.
Initial thoughts:
Very little graveyard hate anywhere. Don't need to worry about any of that.
No LD ANYWHERE. Down to 4 Shocklands?
Maindeck:
Removal: Lightning Bolt 100 Percent out. No Affinity, only 2 decks where its good. Push is great against half the meta and fairly bad elsewhere. 3 feels right. Lots of mirrors makes me want to lean more towards Terminate than Dismember. 3-2-1 Push-Terminate-Dismember? 3-3-0?
Creatures: If there are lots of mirrors, and the rest of the decks want closing speed, I will look to go up to at least 3 and possibly 4 Anglers. Everything else is fine.
Stubborn Denial: Only really bad against Humans. Functional (but probably sided out) in the mirror, best card in the deck against team random nonsense. 3 maindeck might be fine.
Opt/Serum Visions: No Bolt makes me want Visions. Going up on Denial makes me want Opt. Flip a coin?
Kolaghan's Command: By my count its good in 10/15 matchups. 2 feels right.
TBR: Liability against midrange mirrors, great basically everywhere else. Probably still want one main.
Sideboard: Lets just go down the line:
Dire Fleet Daredevil: Certainly the most experimental and for funsies card in the deck, but not going anywhere in this meta. He's a monster in Fatal Push mirrors, and can also exile those pesky Lingering Souls. Honestly considering playing 3.
Young Pyromancer: Him dodging RiP and black Leyline is essentially irrelevant. Good if the mirror crew are packing LotV, loses points if they come with Last Hope. Daredevil seems the much better value 2-drop here.
Ceremonious Rejection: No Affinity and one of the Eldrazi decks packing 4 Caverns hurts, but it still poops on Tron and Eldrazi. 2 slots for the colorless menace seems fine, also helps a bit against Tezz.
Collective Brutality: No Burn, little combo. Want it for Elves to snap a dude and Company but other than that pretty low impact. I will 99 percent have 2 of these in the board for GP Kyoto but seems like a pretty reasonable cut this weekend.
Stubborn Denial: Probably want 4 in the 75 because they are the best thing to be doing against Madcap, Tezz, Blood Moons, but could easily be convinced to just play 3.
Disdainful Stroke: Good against all the Eldrazi/Tron nonsense, but pretty narrow and no Valakut to pick on either.
Kozilek's Return: Great against two decks, but pretty low on targets in this meta. Ignore sweepers, pump up to 3 TBR in the 75, Berserk through for the win?
TBR: Don't want it against Push, quite possibly the best card against all the other matchups.
Planeswalkers: I am generally a fan of 3, but I could see playing 4. Last Hope loses a bit of value with few x/1s running around. Fun-of Ashiok is also somewhere on the radar.
Graveyard Hate: Seems fine to ignore, yea? Play against Living End and Thoughtseize-Thoughtseize-Berserk them. The BR deck much more of a 'fair deck' than something like Dredge, so Push and Terminate still work.
Artifacts: I love me a By Force in the right meta, but no Affinity and no Lantern means the maindeck K Commands should do the trick.
Thoughts? Observations? Suggestions? I realize this isn't really relevant for something like a GP, but I do think its a good idea to occasionally get those wheels in your head spinning and thinking about matchups, strong and weak points of cards, and how we should be approaching sideboarding.
Yes. Yes, we do.
The fact that you can play Tasigur and Gurmag Angler on turn two is one of the big reasons Grixis Shadow is a Tier 1 deck.
Our only counterspell is dependent on playing an early creature, and our best game plan against basically everyone is quick, large threat plus disruption.
Against something like Affinity, we can sit back and be a Fatal Push deck. Against Burn, Scapeshift, Storm, and many others you REALLY want to be a turn 2 Tasigur deck.
My instincts say that if we really wanted Chart a Course then we would already be playing Night's Whisper (Whisper is also probably just better in the deck because aside from the possibility of fueling Delve we don't want to be stuck discarding). I understand the urge to have something cheaper but if the problem is running out of gas then 3 mana options are just as castable at that point in the game. Between Wraith, the front half of Visions, and Scour there are already enough blind draws in the deck, so even if Command and Snapcaster are more expensive the versatility and selection you get are very valuable.
Its fine to dedicated slots to combat x/1s, no shame in that, but you can do better. If you are thinking of playing Sulfur Elemental, just play Izzet Staticaster instead. It is good against Souls but mops up Noble Hierarchs and Thalias, and craps on Affinity.
My favorite card against Souls is still Liliana the Last Hope, and she is a beast in other matchups as well. Lingering Souls has always been the bane of all types of fair decks, but you don't have to play bad cards to fight it.
This is basically exactly how I felt.
Plenty of people jump in and suggest strange changes based on gut feelings, no testing, or nonsensical logic, but this is a well argued, well thought out article.
I really liked what he pegged as the 'untouchable' core of the deck. If there is anything I would argue with, it is the second Terminate, which could reasonably turn into a different removal spell. Having this slot be Terminate or something similar (Dreadbore, Dismember) is correct most of the time so I am okay with it. The core of the deck is the fact that it gets to play 20-some amazing 1 mana spells, and this captures that very well.
The 4th Snapcaster Mage being a flex slot feel blasphemous to long time blue players, but I see the logic. The deck is very low to the ground (our two drop slot consists of "play two one drops"), and there is only so much room for 3 mana spells. If he is looking to find room for LotV, then you have to be looking here and not at the cheap spells.
I have been playing one Liliana of the Veil in the main deck, and it has been excellent. For a deck that is, at its core, a midrange good stuff deck, slamming the most powerful 3 drop in the format into the deck isn't a hard sell. I think the biggest strike against Liliana has always been that it didn't play well with the spell slots, specifically Stubborn Denial and Kolaghan's Command. These promote holding spells in your hand, which Liliana does not. Plussing Liliana also often entails ditching extra lands, making it hard to full utilize Command and Snapcaster.
The third IoK also makes a lot of sense in this build. A big strength of 6 discard spells instead of 7 or 8 was that they didn't clog up your hand later in the game as much, but with more Lilianas to ditch them later on this is less of a problem. 6 is a good number, but not quite enough to ensure that you can always lead on one. I have always been a big fan of Stubborn Denial to back you up against top-decks and other non-sense, but I understand the argument in favor of shifting to more of a tap-out strategy.
Cutting Denial entirely is still a hard sell for me, but I do think that this approach or the current stock 2 makes more sense than some lists I have seen that bump it up to 3 in the Main. Denial is an absolute powerhouse against a lot of decks, so I do want access to them. That being said, plenty of decks have sideboarded Spell Piece, Negate, Countersquall, and Dispel since forever, so a streamlined, tap-out, discard-focused main deck with countermagic in the side isn't an overly ridiculous idea. This also depends a lot on what you expect to play against. If you play nothing but Burn, Gx Tron, and Valakut then you should definitely be maindecking 3 or 4, but Modern isn't that simple.
All in all, a lot of food for thought in this article. You have to careful not to just say 'well PV is better at Magic than me so he is obviously right', but on the other hand when one of the greatest players ever rights an in-depth article about the deck you are playing you would be a fool not to listen.
I like Temur Battle Rage quite a bit against Burn, just watch out for their Paths and Deflecting Palms post-board. For something specifically anti-burn, another Collective Brutality would obviously be great, and it has broad enough applications that 3 is not unreasonable. As you mentioned though, Battle Rage, Terminate, or Dreadbore are all fine here. TBR very often represents a one-shot kill, and Terminate and Dreadbore aren't as good as Bolt or Push but they are relevant cards and their strength in other matchups does give them extra value as one of your 15 slots.
If you think that there are enough control/spell based decks, then going above the 4th Stubborn Denial and adding Countersquall or Dispel is also an option. These are quite good against burn while also having applications elsewhere.
Rakdos Charm is definitely a legitimate sideboard option. It is good against artifact decks, and is good against Dredge, Living End and other dedicated graveyard decks. Do NOT bring it in in the mirror, though, because while graveyard hate is fine it is not worth two mana and a card. You want this as a Shatter that also doubles as a hate card against decks that need their graveyard (Dredge, Living End). For the same reason, I don't like Surgical in the mirror because it costs a card but doesn't affect the board or their hand.
Graveyard hate for the mirror isn't strictly necessary, but it can be good in the right form. Spellbomb is fine because it messes with their graveyard Snapcasters and Tasigurs but doesn't cost a card, plus it cycles when you don't need it. The other option is to go for the high impact knockout blow and board 3~4 Leyline of the Void. This costs a card and has deckbuilding consequences, but is powerful enough to be worth it. (I personally don't like this plan but its something to consider, especially if you expect lots of graveyard decks.)
Both counters and discard are good. Remand is quite awkward because they play a lot at instant speed and it only really good if you get on the front foot quickly. Ratchet Bomb and EE are pretty close to the same card in this matchup, being "2:blow up the tokens", but I think Explosives is the better card overall and it is not out of the question to use it one 2 to hit BB and Spellstutter. Kozileks's Return or Anger of the Gods are good here. Izzet Staticaster is also great if you have access to it.
I have played againt Faeries players that board into things like Damnnation, if they have this then counterspells are quite useful.
They produce lots of blockers, but they also do a fair amount of damage to themselve so in a lot of cases one good Battle Rage is enough to finish them off. If you can't Battle Rage, then forcing them into a situation where they have to chump block is essential.
This is also a matchup where you need to be careful with your life total. Their creautres all fly and stack up quickly if they don't have to play defence, and Creeping Tarpit also represents a very quick clock if you aren't careful.
You deck looks mostly solid, but if you expect a good amount of DnT and Shadow then I think anything less that 4 Push is probably a mistake. I get wanting some Lighting Bolts, but I think they need to be in addition to, not instead of Push. Bolt is certainly good, and it a much cleaner answer to Displacer and Crusader. On the other hand, Push is in your main color and kills everything (outside Crusader) up to and including Resto and TKS.
If there are lots of spell based decks you cant go too crazy on removal, but if you are playing against creatures every round then there is nothing wrong with overloading on removal. 4 Push, 2 Bolt, 2 Terminate, and possibly a Dismember isn't unreasonable. Going this high would cost you points against Valakut, non-Eldrazi Tron, etc., but it looks very nice in creature battles.
Random Thoughts:
Is there any Dredge running around? The single Spellbomb is certainly fine to have around because it helps in graveyard-based fair matchups as well, but it is pretty light if you want to battle dedicated graveyard decks. (The Flaying Tendrils do help here, I will admit)
If the exile portion of Tendrils isn't needed, the instant speed of Kozilek's Return is a huge benefit. For the record I think that Tendrils is very playable and sometimes the right choice, but I usually rank Return and Anger above it and only use it in specific situations. Any insight into your choice there?
I usually max out on Stubborn Denial first, but I do love me a Countersquall.
I have been playing a single Dreabore lately as well, and I think it is quite good. I have had games against Affinity when I just wished it was a Terminate, but it has also killed Nahiris, Gideons, Lilianas, and Ashioks so it pulls its weight.
I value the second Liliana higher than the first Staticaster unless I want something very specific out of the Staticaster. Like you said, Liliana can grind, so you can also use it against Jund, UW, and the mirror and not exclusively x/1s. Staticaster is great against Lingering Souls, but Lingering Souls decks are midrange deck where you will want all of the planeswalkers anyway. The point where I would want Staticaster is if there was a lot of specifically Affinity and Company, but even then is possible you want extra Kozilek's Return slots. There are only so many slots for 3 drops, and drawing 2 or 3 of them is a way to trip up and get run over even in matchups where the cards are great.