If you run the numbers on 23-25 land, 23 maximizes the chance to draw 3-4 lands by turn 3 on the play. I usually bounce between 23 and 24 but lately I'm liking fewer.
The so-called Redguy list is definitely interesting. I'm not sure it's worth going so far to hate on Tron / Valakut (anything else?) but sideboard Blood Moon is certainly powerful. The manabase looks kinda sketchy though with 3 Plains 4 Mutavault and 0 Concealed Courtyard is a bummer. It's definitely better at triggering revolt for Fatal Push.
I'm playing a PPTQ this weekend too and I will be on the hybrid Splicer / Liliana version. Copters, ho!
I wasn't impressed with Resto for a couple reasons. I don't think the flash actually matters that much because the entire rest of your deck, save Path and Push, is sorcery speed. It's especially true when you have a bunch of discard since it's way better to go discard -> threat than discard -> go. There isn't much to leave up.
The floor on Resto is also pretty low. Without Splicer to blink, Resto is below the curve. There are so many 4 drops that will give you card advantage in the worst case, dominate an open board, threaten huge amount of damage, or all of those things, and Resto is not one of them.
I don't think Stubborn Denial is a dealbreaker against Death's Shadow because the deck already has a ton of Stub targets from Path and Push to Copter to Souls to Liliana and Elspeth in PW version. There is also plenty of discard and if they don't have a big creature it's easy to play around. I think the downside of potentially getting stubbed is worth the upside that a resolved Elspeth often spells game over for them as well.
I made a cool chart about the chance to crew Copter based on the number of creatures in your deck.
So far, my impression from playing the Blade Splicer/Restoration Angel deck is that the Golem plan is potentially very good against Eldrazi Tron. However it still requires fliers since Golems can't attack into Eldrazi (or Death's Shadow or Tasigur or Angler).
At this point I'm interested to see if some number of Splicer can work without Resto. I think this looks sweet:
For one, I think the Eldrazi Tron matchup is better with Blade Splicer instead of Liliana. What I found across all the matches was that it's not that easy to blink your Blade Splicer with Restoration Angel. It just doesn't come up that much. I used Resto to do some block + blink but overall I was not impressed by Restoration Angel. Splicer was great though.
While I was playing, I imagined what would happen if I had Liliana instead of Splicer and Elspeth instead of Restoration Angel. Elspeth would have been better than Resto a lot of the time. Liliana and Splicer are close but I definitely missed Liliana in a few matchups. Liliana is an important out to random non-creature permanents from Blood Moon to Ensnaring Bridget to Planeswalkers to nonbasic lands.
I missed Angelic Blessing the most. Elspeth is so good on defense but the ability to suddenly produce a large attacker is amazing. I found myself wishing I could topdeck Elspeth instead of Resto. Elspeth is sorely missed as a pseudo-haste threat.
I also think this version has a tougher time sideboarding because it's harder to touch the Splicer + Resto package. I played the same sideboard from my Liliana / Elspeth version so it wasn't perfect, but I'm used to having more specialized 3 and 4 drops, e.g. in my list 4 Liliana 4 Lingering Souls 2 Kitchen Finks 2 Elspeth. I would frequently board out either 2 Kitchen Finks + 2 Elspeth or 4 Liliana. With 4 Splicer 4 Souls 3 Resto, your 3 and 4 drops are extremely similar. Splicers are significantly worse if you cut Restos and vice versa. It's also possible that Restoration Angel is unnecessary.
I think this version gains the most against Eldrazi Tron. However it doesn't actually gain that much in the matchups where Liliana is bad - mostly CoCo and Affinity which are already good matchups. Those matchups are definitely better but not by that much. I don't think it's better against Death's Shadow because their removal lines up better against Splicer and Resto than Liliana, Finks, and Elsepth.
I definitely won more than I lost with this version so I think it is still quite good. In general, I'd say Liliana and Elspeth are more powerful and flexible than Resto and Splicer. However I think both versions are great to have access to. If you were going to play against a ton of Affinity and Eldrazi Tron, the blink package is great. If you going to play against combo and Death's Shadow, go with planeswalkers.
One card I've liked against Eldrazi Tron is Linvala, Keeper of Silence because it shuts down Walking Ballista and Endbringer while attacking in the air. It's also great against CoCo and serviceable against Affinity so I think it's a good sideboard option.
My major beef with Aetherborn is it mostly functions as a bad removal spell. Maybe you can run away with the game against Burn every now and then but I'd rather just play Kitchen Finks and sideboard Collective Brutality. It seems like Aetherborn is worse than Blessed Alliance 90% of the time.
I want that 4th Splicer because blinking Splicer is the primary reason for playing Restoration Angel. Blinking other stuff is fine but it's just the backup plan so that Resto can get some minor value. Admittedly I haven't played with Resto Splicer so maybe Resto is better than I give it credit for, but it seems pretty bad by itself. I was even thinking of cutting a Lingering Souls! - but that's just crazy.
Flying is super good in the current metagame, e.g. the effectiveness of Copter as a clock, so I think playing with Restoration Angel is a good idea. The build I've been on plays 2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant and flying from the Angelic Blessing ability has been huge.
The clock is the reason I think Copter wins more than Bob on turn 2. Actual extra cards are not that different from loots on turns 3-4 and it is so much more likely that Copter can continue attacking throughout the game, not to mention the obvious additional point of power. The difference between loots and extra cards diminishes with how quickly the game ends as well.
I can't imagine putting Gifted Aetherborn in my deck lol. Maybe I have to swallow my pride and test it but it seem horrendous in general.
I will probably try a Resto / Splicer / Liliana-less version when I get the chance.
I've tested Vault of the Archangel before but I didn't like it. The effect is definitely good when it works but I found that it screwed me as a colorless land a lot more than it did anything else. It requires at least one and preferably multiple creatures in play so the combination of costing 5 mana + requiring a decent board made it too situational for my liking. I can why it would be better in a deck with Splicer + Resto.
Sculler can certainly be a weak topdeck but I think the deck already has a pretty good late game, e.g. all the manlands, planeswalkers, or Resto/Splicer. I think my win rate is highest when a turn 2 Copter goes uncontested so I like how Sculler reinforces that plan. Sculler is also nice in some of our bad matchups because Thoughtseize is one of the best cards against Tron and Titanshift and neither of those decks have too many ways to kill Sculler. I would say it occupies a similar space in my list that Thraben Inspector does in yours, i.e. a little grease for the Copter engine. Sculler is a little more biased towards the early game whereas Inspector is better later on with its cantrip.
It would be very interesting to test a bunch of different builds against Eldrazi Tron because I think that's the most problematic matchup as the deck is fairly popular. Splicer / Resto seems like a great option against them but it does get kinda wrecked by Walking Ballista.
I think that list is great. You definitely give something up by not playing Liliana of the Veil but you gain a lot in grindy matchups with the Restoration Angel package.
My only beef with that list is I don't like Vault of the Archangel and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth but that's pretty minor. I'm also not sure how Thraben Inspector plays out. I should probably test it. I never imagined blocking with Copter on turn 2 so I didn't see the point of 1 drop crew members, since all I cared about was attacking on turn 3. It makes sense given that you also want more value from Restoration Angel.
I have been impressed with Tidehollow Sculler lately. It's not great against Death's Shadow specifically but it makes it very safe to crew Copter and there are a lot of cards which are nice to exile instead of discard, even if it's only temporary. After Lingering Souls, I think the best crew member is close between Sculler and Splicer.
The biggest question for me is: how good is this deck against Eldrazi Tron? That matchup is rough. I can see how Resto + Splicer could be good but Liliana is pretty good there too.
I think you could find a way to play Arbiter + Ghost Quarter but not Thalia. Most of your best cards are noncreature spells. Maybe you could sideboard it though I'm not sure where you would board it in. Storm and Ad Nauseam? There are way better sideboard cards for those specific matchups, e.g. Rule of Law.
It doesn't really speak to me but it could be ok. Losing Marsh Flats is pretty harsh. It makes Fatal Push much worse when you have to use Ghost Quarter to get revolt.
I hear what you're saying about being too fair but I think sometimes we do things that are pretty unfair. We may not have 9/9's for B or infinite combos, but we can do things like:
I can see why you would want to Strip Mine some people though.
Pack Rat is best as a midrange mirror breaker but there aren't many traditional midrange decks around. Pack Rat is usually pretty embarrassing against Death's Shadow and Eldrazi Tron. If I had to play against tons of traditional Abzan and Jund I might bring back Pack Rat but I'd still play Copter too. Copter is great against all normal creature removal, especially Liliana, and it breaks Lingering Souls mirrors. If you want more late-game power then I could see playing a couple Pack Rat but I don't think it's necessary.
Copter is much better than Pack Rat because it's way less risky. For one you don't have to spend a ton of mana (6+?) for it to be good. With Pack Rat you have to choose between the Pack Rat plan and playing your other cards. With Copter you don't have to choose and it makes a huge difference. I think it's especially true against combo since you often want to cast multiple disruptive spells while presenting a clock. Pack Rat makes you give up disrupting on turn 3 which can be a critical turn for combo decks to set up. Even if you just cast Liliana of the Veil on turn 3, it's probably better to do it with a Copter in play than a Pack Rat.
Lost in Semifinals of PPTQ today. Only 16 players and 4 rounds. Went 3-0-1 in Swiss beating Burn, Mono Green Aggro, and Burn.
In the quarters finals I beat GR Valakut but then I lost to the same Mono Green Aggro player in the semis. I was on the play g1 because I was #1 seed but I lost to double Vines of the Vastwood. G2 he kept a bad hand and I won easily. G3 I was on the draw and mulled to 5; he snap keeps 7 and goes t1 1 drop, t2 1 drop 1 drop, etc. I think I might have been able to win game 1 but there was nothing I could do in game 3. Oh well.
For the purposes of the calculation, a crew member is any card that can crew Copter on turn 3.
I'm not super worried about Kolaghan's Command since the only popular deck playing it is Death's Shadow, they usually only have 1-2, and the rest of the deck is great against Death's Shadow.
I think you do want 16+ crew members counting Mutavault because as @Kazral said, it's not great to crew with Mutavault on turn 3. So I'd like 13-14 without Mutavault. 2% is actually a pretty big deal. I'm looking at Kitchen Finks because it's great against Burn and fine against Death's Shadow. Something like this seem good:
Assuming you can crew on turn 3, it's better to play Copter than Bob on turn 2. Looting vs drawing an extra card is not that different on turn 3 and Copter is a way better clock. Copter is also way harder to kill. For instance you could go t1 Shambling Vent, t2 Copter, t3 Inquisition take their removal, Bob, crew Copter. If you play t2 Bob they just kill it.
Yes, Mutavault is great but it's more icing than cake. I would consider playing an additional creature or two over Collective Brutality and the 3rd Thoughtseize but I think you should be fine as is. You could also play Blinkmoth Nexus instead if you have that
The so-called Redguy list is definitely interesting. I'm not sure it's worth going so far to hate on Tron / Valakut (anything else?) but sideboard Blood Moon is certainly powerful. The manabase looks kinda sketchy though with 3 Plains 4 Mutavault and 0 Concealed Courtyard is a bummer. It's definitely better at triggering revolt for Fatal Push.
I'm playing a PPTQ this weekend too and I will be on the hybrid Splicer / Liliana version. Copters, ho!
The floor on Resto is also pretty low. Without Splicer to blink, Resto is below the curve. There are so many 4 drops that will give you card advantage in the worst case, dominate an open board, threaten huge amount of damage, or all of those things, and Resto is not one of them.
I don't think Stubborn Denial is a dealbreaker against Death's Shadow because the deck already has a ton of Stub targets from Path and Push to Copter to Souls to Liliana and Elspeth in PW version. There is also plenty of discard and if they don't have a big creature it's easy to play around. I think the downside of potentially getting stubbed is worth the upside that a resolved Elspeth often spells game over for them as well.
I made a cool chart about the chance to crew Copter based on the number of creatures in your deck.
So far, my impression from playing the Blade Splicer/Restoration Angel deck is that the Golem plan is potentially very good against Eldrazi Tron. However it still requires fliers since Golems can't attack into Eldrazi (or Death's Shadow or Tasigur or Angler).
At this point I'm interested to see if some number of Splicer can work without Resto. I think this looks sweet:
4x Mutavault
4x Shambling Vent
4x Concealed Courtyard
4x Marsh Flats
3x Godless Shrine
3x Swamp
1x Plains
4x Dark Confidant
3x Tidehollow Sculler
3x Blade Splicer
1x Restoration Angel
Instant
3x Fatal Push
4x Path to Exile
3x Thoughtseize
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
4x Lingering Souls
Planeswalker
1x Elspeth, Knight-Errant
3x Liliana of the Veil
Artifact
4x Smuggler's Copter
4x Mutavault
4x Shambling Vent
4x Concealed Courtyard
4x Marsh Flats
2x Godless Shrine
3x Swamp
1x Plains
1x Verdant Catacombs
1x Arid Mesa
4x Dark Confidant
4x Blade Splicer
3x Restoration Angel
3x Tidehollow Sculler
Instant
4x Fatal Push
4x Path to Exile
4x Lingering Souls
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
3x Thoughtseize
Artifact
4x Smuggler's Copter
While I was playing, I imagined what would happen if I had Liliana instead of Splicer and Elspeth instead of Restoration Angel. Elspeth would have been better than Resto a lot of the time. Liliana and Splicer are close but I definitely missed Liliana in a few matchups. Liliana is an important out to random non-creature permanents from Blood Moon to Ensnaring Bridget to Planeswalkers to nonbasic lands.
I missed Angelic Blessing the most. Elspeth is so good on defense but the ability to suddenly produce a large attacker is amazing. I found myself wishing I could topdeck Elspeth instead of Resto. Elspeth is sorely missed as a pseudo-haste threat.
I also think this version has a tougher time sideboarding because it's harder to touch the Splicer + Resto package. I played the same sideboard from my Liliana / Elspeth version so it wasn't perfect, but I'm used to having more specialized 3 and 4 drops, e.g. in my list 4 Liliana 4 Lingering Souls 2 Kitchen Finks 2 Elspeth. I would frequently board out either 2 Kitchen Finks + 2 Elspeth or 4 Liliana. With 4 Splicer 4 Souls 3 Resto, your 3 and 4 drops are extremely similar. Splicers are significantly worse if you cut Restos and vice versa. It's also possible that Restoration Angel is unnecessary.
I think this version gains the most against Eldrazi Tron. However it doesn't actually gain that much in the matchups where Liliana is bad - mostly CoCo and Affinity which are already good matchups. Those matchups are definitely better but not by that much. I don't think it's better against Death's Shadow because their removal lines up better against Splicer and Resto than Liliana, Finks, and Elsepth.
I definitely won more than I lost with this version so I think it is still quite good. In general, I'd say Liliana and Elspeth are more powerful and flexible than Resto and Splicer. However I think both versions are great to have access to. If you were going to play against a ton of Affinity and Eldrazi Tron, the blink package is great. If you going to play against combo and Death's Shadow, go with planeswalkers.
My major beef with Aetherborn is it mostly functions as a bad removal spell. Maybe you can run away with the game against Burn every now and then but I'd rather just play Kitchen Finks and sideboard Collective Brutality. It seems like Aetherborn is worse than Blessed Alliance 90% of the time.
Flying is super good in the current metagame, e.g. the effectiveness of Copter as a clock, so I think playing with Restoration Angel is a good idea. The build I've been on plays 2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant and flying from the Angelic Blessing ability has been huge.
The clock is the reason I think Copter wins more than Bob on turn 2. Actual extra cards are not that different from loots on turns 3-4 and it is so much more likely that Copter can continue attacking throughout the game, not to mention the obvious additional point of power. The difference between loots and extra cards diminishes with how quickly the game ends as well.
I can't imagine putting Gifted Aetherborn in my deck lol. Maybe I have to swallow my pride and test it but it seem horrendous in general.
I will probably try a Resto / Splicer / Liliana-less version when I get the chance.
Sculler can certainly be a weak topdeck but I think the deck already has a pretty good late game, e.g. all the manlands, planeswalkers, or Resto/Splicer. I think my win rate is highest when a turn 2 Copter goes uncontested so I like how Sculler reinforces that plan. Sculler is also nice in some of our bad matchups because Thoughtseize is one of the best cards against Tron and Titanshift and neither of those decks have too many ways to kill Sculler. I would say it occupies a similar space in my list that Thraben Inspector does in yours, i.e. a little grease for the Copter engine. Sculler is a little more biased towards the early game whereas Inspector is better later on with its cantrip.
It would be very interesting to test a bunch of different builds against Eldrazi Tron because I think that's the most problematic matchup as the deck is fairly popular. Splicer / Resto seems like a great option against them but it does get kinda wrecked by Walking Ballista.
I'd like to test something like this:
4x Mutavault
4x Shambling Vent
4x Concealed Courtyard
4x Marsh Flats
3x Godless Shrine
3x Swamp
1x Plains
1x Verdant Catacombs
4x Dark Confidant
4x Blade Splicer
3x Restoration Angel
2x Tidehollow Sculler
Instant
4x Fatal Push
4x Path to Exile
4x Lingering Souls
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
3x Thoughtseize
Artifact
4x Smuggler's Copter
I think that list is great. You definitely give something up by not playing Liliana of the Veil but you gain a lot in grindy matchups with the Restoration Angel package.
My only beef with that list is I don't like Vault of the Archangel and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth but that's pretty minor. I'm also not sure how Thraben Inspector plays out. I should probably test it. I never imagined blocking with Copter on turn 2 so I didn't see the point of 1 drop crew members, since all I cared about was attacking on turn 3. It makes sense given that you also want more value from Restoration Angel.
I have been impressed with Tidehollow Sculler lately. It's not great against Death's Shadow specifically but it makes it very safe to crew Copter and there are a lot of cards which are nice to exile instead of discard, even if it's only temporary. After Lingering Souls, I think the best crew member is close between Sculler and Splicer.
The biggest question for me is: how good is this deck against Eldrazi Tron? That matchup is rough. I can see how Resto + Splicer could be good but Liliana is pretty good there too.
Here's an attempt with Leonin Arbiter:
4x Ghost Quarter
4x Shambling Vent
4x Concealed Courtyard
4x Godless Shrine
2x Mutavault
2x Caves of Koilos
3x Swamp
1x Plains
4x Dark Confidant
4x Leonin Arbiter
3x Tidehollow Sculler
Instant
3x Fatal Push
4x Path to Exile
Sorcery
4x Lingering Souls
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
2x Thoughseize
4x Liliana of the Veil
Artifact
4x Smuggler's Copter
I hear what you're saying about being too fair but I think sometimes we do things that are pretty unfair. We may not have 9/9's for B or infinite combos, but we can do things like:
Pack Rat is best as a midrange mirror breaker but there aren't many traditional midrange decks around. Pack Rat is usually pretty embarrassing against Death's Shadow and Eldrazi Tron. If I had to play against tons of traditional Abzan and Jund I might bring back Pack Rat but I'd still play Copter too. Copter is great against all normal creature removal, especially Liliana, and it breaks Lingering Souls mirrors. If you want more late-game power then I could see playing a couple Pack Rat but I don't think it's necessary.
Copter is much better than Pack Rat because it's way less risky. For one you don't have to spend a ton of mana (6+?) for it to be good. With Pack Rat you have to choose between the Pack Rat plan and playing your other cards. With Copter you don't have to choose and it makes a huge difference. I think it's especially true against combo since you often want to cast multiple disruptive spells while presenting a clock. Pack Rat makes you give up disrupting on turn 3 which can be a critical turn for combo decks to set up. Even if you just cast Liliana of the Veil on turn 3, it's probably better to do it with a Copter in play than a Pack Rat.
In the quarters finals I beat GR Valakut but then I lost to the same Mono Green Aggro player in the semis. I was on the play g1 because I was #1 seed but I lost to double Vines of the Vastwood. G2 he kept a bad hand and I won easily. G3 I was on the draw and mulled to 5; he snap keeps 7 and goes t1 1 drop, t2 1 drop 1 drop, etc. I think I might have been able to win game 1 but there was nothing I could do in game 3. Oh well.
I'm not super worried about Kolaghan's Command since the only popular deck playing it is Death's Shadow, they usually only have 1-2, and the rest of the deck is great against Death's Shadow.
I think you do want 16+ crew members counting Mutavault because as @Kazral said, it's not great to crew with Mutavault on turn 3. So I'd like 13-14 without Mutavault. 2% is actually a pretty big deal. I'm looking at Kitchen Finks because it's great against Burn and fine against Death's Shadow. Something like this seem good:
4x Mutavault
4x Shambling Vent
4x Concealed Courtyard
4x Marsh Flats
3x Godless Shrine
3x Swamp
1x Plains
Creature
4x Dark Confidant
3x Tidehollow Sculler
2x Kitchen Finks
3x Fatal Push
4x Path to Exile
Sorcery
3x Thoughtseize
4x Inquisition of Kozilek
4x Lingering Souls
Planeswalker
2x Elspeth, Knight-Errant
4x Liliana of the Veil
Artifact
4x Smuggler's Copter
4x Collective Brutality
11x stuff
After seeing those numbers I think 16 is about the minimum acceptable amount of crew members and I'm considering how to get 17-18 in the deck.