yeah, the vaimes poison in a world with two mech clears still alive is... weird. which means vaimes's reads and/or meta analysis may have to come into play
Presently thinking about whether Amy or Proph would have been more likely to poison Vaimes
Meta-analysis and day 1 reads say "Proph did it" but Amy has been trying to link me to CC's red flip since she replaced in so like
Meh
Can you elaborate on "meta-analysis"?
and FOR THE RECORD I didn't start sussing you until D2
Pretty much the only player in the game who would feel threatened by Vaimes is Proph, the poison makes sense from that PoV.
As far as being unhelpful yeah I'm not uh. I don't have, and didn't have, the time to really go through my usual process with wagon analysis and PBPAs and the whole nine yards; I've been stealing time from work to phone post in this game for most of it lol.
like fmpov it feels like the instant i accuse you your brain just shuts down and refuses to actually consider what i'm talking about
which is a large portion of why i feel fairly comfortable leaving highroller/proph cleared rather than being paranoid
but like... i have been wrong before. i will be wrong again. if you're town, then we need to buckle down and figure this out, because if you're town then we're BOTH wrong and proph is sitting in wolfchat laughing at us
(or grapefruit is freaking out over my correct tinfoil NO AMY BAD)
I know I'm being an unimpressive villager but the fact is I don't have a smoking gun on you and I don't have the charisma, wim, time, or thread leverage to talk myself off the chopping block
Game is locked if we go you -> Proph but I have faith they'll get there in f3.
bruh if you're town this is like the LEAST helpful
Godfather-poisoner seems... far-fetched, so I don't think there's any reason to tinfoil Grapefruit here.
In my scattershot reread that I conducted last night, I did consider Highroller - while I think the roleclaim is really good and villagery (Bird the Voyeur? hell yeah), I don't think it's impossible for it to be faked, especially given that his claim came after Axel and Grape outed their targets.
Rereading D1, I found quite a few things that I think pointed away from Proph or Highroller being the last wolf. Proph's push on CC was early, and it was good; based on CC-Jack interactions, we can assume that the wolfteam intended to distance without full-on bussing, and I think Proph's push was strong enough to exit the realm of the former. Proph also got shaded a fair bit by Jack in a way that I don't think was very partnery.
Highroller I want to clear almost exclusively off CC's reaction to his push on ZDS. As y'all may or may not remember, Highroller came out the gate HARD against ZDS, tunneling him basically all of D1. CC's vote on ZDS, on the other hand, was an omgus made viable by the presence of legitimate town-originated pressure on ZDS - namely, Highroller. I think that entire situation plays out differently if Highroller's a wolf and CC's sheeping his buddy there - and combined with the roleclaim, that's good enough for me.
I didn't find anything super clearing OR damning on Silver for D1, but process of elimination already has him as the wolfiest of the 3 here, and then I started reconsidering the D2 CC stuff, and I thought to myself, "ok. I'm wolf!CC here. one of my partners is Cayvie. what do I do here?"
Important to note: there is no roleblocker in this game, and CERTAINLY not a scum roleblocker (again, I think roleblocker-poisoner is too out there given the level of power we've seen in this game, and anyways nobody's claimed blocked yet.) This is probably not something we would have deduced for sure on D2, but the later in the game we go the more confident we'd become. My point is this: there's no world in which CC endgamed with the FN claim. He can't spamclaim roleblocked for a number of reasons, and he can't keep clearing himself off teammates indefinitely because A. you run out of teammates eventually and B. linking the entire team together like that is stupid.
So OK, you decide the "claim roleblocked" plan is only delaying the inevitable, you try to get some actual utility out of your slot before you go down. You have three options: you claim you targeted a villager, attempt to win the thunderdome, and then almost certainly you get turboed the next day. You target a teammate, have them clear you, and you do this whole song and dance again the following night; but that's risky because if you go down, your teammate ALWAYS follows you. OR you target a teammate, have them DISPUTE your claim, have your thunderdome, and then whoever survives has a bit more safety due to the redflip.
There's some viability to believing they may have gone for the v-w thunderdome, I'll admit, but consider: one of your partners is Jackslot, and Jackslot almost certainly isn't endgaming. If you 1 for 1 yourself with ANYONE, you're pretty much banking on partner #3 as your win condition - and given that you're never endgaming as a fake FN, #3's probably already your wincon anyways. If you have a clear grasp on that, then I think the path is obvious: you try your damnedest to send your third partner deep. Claim a fake FN on them, have them dispute it, you almost certainly lose the thunderdome. Your partner now looks significantly better, and can fall back on "why the hell would a partner not just clear them" as a defense.
I haven't actually reread most of D2 prior to writing this. But I do distinctly remember Silver going after me pretty hard the instant I suggested he could be bussing.
My one caveat is that I don't actually know what Silver's plan is here if he's a wolf? My guess is that by offering himself up first, he hopes to look like a confident villager with no self-preservation instinct, which is a desperate gambit that I don't think I've ever seen work before, but I suppose wolf!Silver would be in a pretty desperate spot here, so.
Silver: if you ARE a villager, prove it. If I'm wrong on Proph, help me out. Do the due diligence, evaluate my slot beyond OMGUS, give town the absolute strongest legacy you can, because when you say "kill me first" I shrug and say "sounds good, think you're a wolf anyways."
may have to iso him
i'm much more sold on highroller v than proph v
i'm a ******* dumbass
ok thank god for that at least
which is a large portion of why i feel fairly comfortable leaving highroller/proph cleared rather than being paranoid
but like... i have been wrong before. i will be wrong again. if you're town, then we need to buckle down and figure this out, because if you're town then we're BOTH wrong and proph is sitting in wolfchat laughing at us
(or grapefruit is freaking out over my correct tinfoil NO AMY BAD)
and FOR THE RECORD I didn't start sussing you until D2
super flavorful
alexa delete this thought from my brain please LMAO
In my scattershot reread that I conducted last night, I did consider Highroller - while I think the roleclaim is really good and villagery (Bird the Voyeur? hell yeah), I don't think it's impossible for it to be faked, especially given that his claim came after Axel and Grape outed their targets.
Rereading D1, I found quite a few things that I think pointed away from Proph or Highroller being the last wolf. Proph's push on CC was early, and it was good; based on CC-Jack interactions, we can assume that the wolfteam intended to distance without full-on bussing, and I think Proph's push was strong enough to exit the realm of the former. Proph also got shaded a fair bit by Jack in a way that I don't think was very partnery.
Highroller I want to clear almost exclusively off CC's reaction to his push on ZDS. As y'all may or may not remember, Highroller came out the gate HARD against ZDS, tunneling him basically all of D1. CC's vote on ZDS, on the other hand, was an omgus made viable by the presence of legitimate town-originated pressure on ZDS - namely, Highroller. I think that entire situation plays out differently if Highroller's a wolf and CC's sheeping his buddy there - and combined with the roleclaim, that's good enough for me.
I didn't find anything super clearing OR damning on Silver for D1, but process of elimination already has him as the wolfiest of the 3 here, and then I started reconsidering the D2 CC stuff, and I thought to myself, "ok. I'm wolf!CC here. one of my partners is Cayvie. what do I do here?"
Important to note: there is no roleblocker in this game, and CERTAINLY not a scum roleblocker (again, I think roleblocker-poisoner is too out there given the level of power we've seen in this game, and anyways nobody's claimed blocked yet.) This is probably not something we would have deduced for sure on D2, but the later in the game we go the more confident we'd become. My point is this: there's no world in which CC endgamed with the FN claim. He can't spamclaim roleblocked for a number of reasons, and he can't keep clearing himself off teammates indefinitely because A. you run out of teammates eventually and B. linking the entire team together like that is stupid.
So OK, you decide the "claim roleblocked" plan is only delaying the inevitable, you try to get some actual utility out of your slot before you go down. You have three options: you claim you targeted a villager, attempt to win the thunderdome, and then almost certainly you get turboed the next day. You target a teammate, have them clear you, and you do this whole song and dance again the following night; but that's risky because if you go down, your teammate ALWAYS follows you. OR you target a teammate, have them DISPUTE your claim, have your thunderdome, and then whoever survives has a bit more safety due to the redflip.
There's some viability to believing they may have gone for the v-w thunderdome, I'll admit, but consider: one of your partners is Jackslot, and Jackslot almost certainly isn't endgaming. If you 1 for 1 yourself with ANYONE, you're pretty much banking on partner #3 as your win condition - and given that you're never endgaming as a fake FN, #3's probably already your wincon anyways. If you have a clear grasp on that, then I think the path is obvious: you try your damnedest to send your third partner deep. Claim a fake FN on them, have them dispute it, you almost certainly lose the thunderdome. Your partner now looks significantly better, and can fall back on "why the hell would a partner not just clear them" as a defense.
I haven't actually reread most of D2 prior to writing this. But I do distinctly remember Silver going after me pretty hard the instant I suggested he could be bussing.
My one caveat is that I don't actually know what Silver's plan is here if he's a wolf? My guess is that by offering himself up first, he hopes to look like a confident villager with no self-preservation instinct, which is a desperate gambit that I don't think I've ever seen work before, but I suppose wolf!Silver would be in a pretty desperate spot here, so.
Silver: if you ARE a villager, prove it. If I'm wrong on Proph, help me out. Do the due diligence, evaluate my slot beyond OMGUS, give town the absolute strongest legacy you can, because when you say "kill me first" I shrug and say "sounds good, think you're a wolf anyways."
Huntsman, Vanilla Town
i have no idea what rod was doing beyond trying to be "the manliest huntsman ever"
should we wait for everyone to check in or
I'll elaborate when i can get to a pc
i'll probably just reread the whole game over the next couple of days