Whenever I become involved in a discussion of why the process of switching to a fuel source other than petroleum is so slow, other people usually say that the major oil companies do not wish for society to switch so that they can continue to profit from the production of petroleum-based fuels.
However, petroleum is a limited resource, and people are mining it from the Earth at a rate faster than it can be replenished (it takes millions of years to form), so the world's supply of petroleum will inevitably be depleted, and if society has not yet made the transition to an alternative source of energy, we shall all be in great trouble when that depletion finally does occur.
In my mind, the best course of action for the oil companies to take would be to invest a portion of their vast resources into the research and development of alternative fuel sources, to be ready for when the world's supply of petroleum finally expires (or, hopefully, before then), so that the world does not become a Mad Max-style barren wasteland due to scarcity of fuel (interesting fact: the first Mad Max film was inspired by actual riots that occurred in Australia in the late 1970's when there was a sudden shortage of gasoline).
What does everyone else say about this? What shall the major oil companies do when the world's supply of oil finally does expire, if they have not prepared for that catastrophe?
What does everyone else say about this? What shall the major oil companies do when the world's supply of oil finally does expire, if they have not prepared for that catastrophe?
I don't think they're so dumb as to not prepare for the inevitable.
But, as B_S wrote, "when will the world's supply of oil dry up?" is a much better question to ask.
1. We won't end up in a wasteland because we have an extremely viable long-term source of energy in our back pockets - nuclear. Yes it has drawbacks, but if energy prices start to get high enough people will get the bee out of their bonnet and warm up to the idea that we have vast, clean energy reserves available.
2. Oil reserves won't dry up overnight. They won't dry up in a year. They won't dry up in a century. What will happen is that prices will steadily increase as tapping available resources becomes more costly and inefficient. Oil will slowly stop looking attractive as prices go up, and people will slowly start migrating away to other energy sources. When the human race stops using oil, there will more than likely still be billions of barrels of oil left in the ground (though most will be in remote and hard-to-drill places).
3. Oil companies have plans for the days when oil goes out of vogue. For example, many invest in R&D for alternative energy sources. I guarantee they also have teams of scientists and economists whose only job is to forecast when and how this transition will happen. (Who knows how accurate ther forecasts are, but you can bet this issue is on their radar)
I have no idea how much of a problem this is or isn't so I apologize in advance, but isn't this economics 101? The value of products that rely heavily on fossil fuels should be diminishing and the attractiveness of investments into alternative energy resources should be increasing as the fuel supply is dwindling, and both should be decreasing/increasing more rapidly as the supply continues to dwindle.
That doesn't mean that we'll find a great solution soon, of course. But it is what it is.
My main concern is that I am spending far too much money on gasoline, and I am hoping that a less expensive alternative becomes widespread in the near future (in the next five years, approximately); how likely is that to happen?
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“Those who would trade their freedoms for security will have neither.”-Benjamin Franklin
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
“Patriotism means to stand by one's country; it does not mean to stand by one's president.”-Theodore Roosevelt
My main concern is that I am spending far too much money on gasoline, and I am hoping that a less expensive alternative becomes widespread in the near future (in the next five years, approximately); how likely is that to happen?
My initial reaction was 'lol, you sweet summer child', but more seriously though chances are low. Unless you want to get an Electric Smart Car.
My initial reaction was 'lol, you sweet summer child', but more seriously though chances are low. Unless you want to get an Electric Smart Car.
I very much would like to get an electric car (a mall near where I live has a Tesla Motors store, complete with an actual vehicle for demonstration, and it is amazing), but the list price for such vehicles is far too high; it would take me years to recover the money that I spent, even if I was no longer purchasing gasoline, motor oil, antifreeze, etc.
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“Those who would trade their freedoms for security will have neither.”-Benjamin Franklin
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
“Patriotism means to stand by one's country; it does not mean to stand by one's president.”-Theodore Roosevelt
My initial reaction was 'lol, you sweet summer child', but more seriously though chances are low. Unless you want to get an Electric Smart Car.
I very much would like to get an electric car (a mall near where I live has a Tesla Motors store, complete with an actual vehicle for demonstration, and it is amazing), but the list price for such vehicles is far too high; it would take me years to recover the money that I spent, even if I was no longer purchasing gasoline, motor oil, antifreeze, etc.
Price wise, I imagine the technology behind these cars would become less expensive as time goes on and the designs improve. I'm not sure five years will make a significant dent, however, and you may have to content yourself with a hybrid in the mean time.
My main concern is that I am spending far too much money on gasoline, and I am hoping that a less expensive alternative becomes widespread in the near future (in the next five years, approximately); how likely is that to happen?
The oil companies like the setup they have. So they are going to spend their billions on scientists, politicians, etc, making sure that the next alternative after oil, is also controlled by them and makes them just as much money. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Fissionable material a finite quantity. Run out quickly. Nuclear not solution.
Fissionable material, like everything in the world, is certainly in a "finite quantity," but that quantity is really, really enormous. Using just uranium resources we know about presently, there are about 5.3 million metric tonnes of recoverable uranium in the ground. Each U.S. ton of uranium (which is about 10% smaller than a metric tonne) supplies energy equivalent to 80,000 barrels of oil.
That means, based on uranium supplies we know about now and excluding other fissionable material like thorium, we can produce energy equal to about 466 billion barrels of oil or 2.1e14 kWH of electricity. That's a lot of energy. That said, I will acknowledge there are arguments for why switching completely to nuclear is unfeasible. Still, nuclear can supply a lot of power and would prevent a the kind of worldwide collapse people are doomsaying about ITT.
These non-renewables should be used to vault man into the solar age, but instead they are squandered by warmongers and profiteers and laziness and complacence. Instead of treating this congealed sunlight as the precious and fleeting boon that it is, man has burned most of it so that he won't have to exercise his legs.
At least Tesla Motors is thinking ahead of what we should be doing incase the world's oil supply expires unlike major oil companies who only care about monopolizing the auto industry for corporate greed.
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"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
This is a difficult topic to discuss. .... We will not run out of oil overnight, though there will be serious social and political ramifications if its production peaks.
....
Oil is not just a useful resource, it's what drives modern civilization. Modern agriculture has been described as 'turning fossil fuels into food'.
I tend to agree.
From many things I've read, and people (family) who work in Oil/Gas, we are well past the point of peak yield in most of the worlds' (known) current oil fields/deposits, which are generally considered of the cheap to extract variety. Not to say we are past peak production, just that the oil is getting more expensive to draw from the ground from here on in, and is only going to get more expensive.
Considering the effects of increased costs for everything is already here, as agriculture and everything else is based on a cheap fuel resource, and will continue to increase > add on the fact that most western countries have an ageing population with all the baby boomers out there expecting a pension/assistance/medical care, so many countries are faced with a future of having only a small % of population to tax.
Our economies tend to grow slowly, but contract with a vicious rapidity when global financial problems arise.
I would suggest it's only a matter of time before we have a major financial worldwide collapse of epic proportions, given how easily it happened with the GFC, and given that our whole economic system is based on growth > when Oil stops flowing cheaply and businesses go backwards? I wouldn't wanna be in debt when it happens.
My main concern is that I am spending far too much money on gasoline, and I am hoping that a less expensive alternative becomes widespread in the near future (in the next five years, approximately); how likely is that to happen?
I would suggest zero chance of that. Oil and gas is the cheapest you're likely to get.
I've read quite a bit about hydrogen systems that can harvest hydrogen from the air and covert it into fuel to power a car without the need to EVER refuel.
Great idea huh?
But from what I've read, the technology is a looooooong way off being ready, and has some major obstacles to ever being a product.
It really doesnt matter if and when we run out of oil, we already know how to make it in a lab and we also have alternative oils we can used form various forms. The big hit would be the by product of oil, which is gasoline. But as its already been pointed out we have alternative to that to in the form of propane and natural gas.
Quote from DemonDragonJ »
My main concern is that I am spending far too much money on gasoline, and I am hoping that a less expensive alternative becomes widespread in the near future (in the next five years, approximately); how likely is that to happen?
Put it this way, I am going to be 51 years old and have heard talk of alternative power sources for cars since I was in grade school. We were already suppose to be using electric cars that drove themselves to the destination told to them as we slept or did work.
I dont expect it to happen in my life time. At least not on a full scale. We are still making baby steps in terms of technology and cost.
Man the problem is that we consume a ridiculously large quantity of kWH annually.
Nuclear Power from Uranium may provide 210,000,000,000,000 kWH of electricity, however the United States alone consumes 3,882,000,000,000 kWH a year (U.S. Energy Information Administration / eia.gov). Meaning we would only get 54 years of power from it, assuming consumption rates remain unchanged during that time.
Ironically to sustain our modern culture, well have to change a cornerstone of what makes our modern culture, and shift from the exploitation of finite resources to renewable resources. Cease dependence upon global trade as it is, and focus on local sustainability.
I don't think we'll reach peak oil production by estimate of global reserves for at least another 100 years, if current estimations are correct. Saudi Arabia was estimated to have roughly 25% of the worlds oil supplies most of which has been tapped. Now it is estimated that Argentina possesses more than Saudi Arabia did.
That being said, what "I" think should be the question here is will we find an acceptable alternative fuel source before supply vs. demand reaches boiling point, and war becomes a necessity to sustain the status quo. Historically speaking conquest is the next stage in a situation such as this, and the pressure to do so will be present. Modern militaries cannot function without fuel, making being the last one to run out of fuel, the goal of every country with military strength enough to make an attempt at establishing control over the remaining major deposits.
If I recall a graph from a climate change class correctly, the world's oil reserves will start drastically diminishing by 2070 considering current use patterns. However, I took this class before the first horizontal fracking well was drilled in the Eagle Ford Shale, so I'm not sure how relevant it is currently. Technology for new drilling techniques is advancing all the time--although they still haven't figured out how to capture that natural gas--but so is renewable energy. There are over a dozen states that have renewable portfolio standards, including my state of Texas. Solar PV is getting ridiculously cheaper compared to how much it cost 30 years ago. Although politicians in states like West Virginia and Kentucky bemoan the Obama administration's "war on coal," the market rather than the government is declaring coal too expensive. The utility I use has a mixed portfolio of coal, natgas, and renewables. Coal is the most expensive way you can generate electricity at my utility, with it costing 12 cents/kWh. Solar costs 2.9 cents/kWh. Geothermal energy, which has a well failure rate of 25% in Texas, is STILL less expensive than coal (9 cents/kWh). If you go to west Texas you'll encounter wind farms that stretch as far as the eye can see.
We're getting there slowly. If penny-penching conservative Texas has a RPS standard of 25% of our energy coming from renewables, your state can do it too. We're not doing it because of some kooky conspiracy. It just makes economic sense.
Whenever I become involved in a discussion of why the process of switching to a fuel source other than petroleum is so slow, other people usually say that the major oil companies do not wish for society to switch so that they can continue to profit from the production of petroleum-based fuels.
However, petroleum is a limited resource, and people are mining it from the Earth at a rate faster than it can be replenished (it takes millions of years to form), so the world's supply of petroleum will inevitably be depleted, and if society has not yet made the transition to an alternative source of energy, we shall all be in great trouble when that depletion finally does occur.
In my mind, the best course of action for the oil companies to take would be to invest a portion of their vast resources into the research and development of alternative fuel sources, to be ready for when the world's supply of petroleum finally expires (or, hopefully, before then), so that the world does not become a Mad Max-style barren wasteland due to scarcity of fuel (interesting fact: the first Mad Max film was inspired by actual riots that occurred in Australia in the late 1970's when there was a sudden shortage of gasoline).
What does everyone else say about this? What shall the major oil companies do when the world's supply of oil finally does expire, if they have not prepared for that catastrophe?
At a high level, Ljoss is correct. Its just basic economics 101. We're not going to run out of oil overnight. We're not going to run out of oil suddenly.
When we do run out, it's not like oil companies are going to throw their arms up in the air and scream. What happened?
They're investing in alternative sources as we speak.
As oil supply dwindles, its cost will go up. As it's price goes up, the profit viability of alternative sources will go up too.
Because alternative sources of energy are now profitable, the market will respond by expanding the scope of those sources.
For instance, Oil Shales in Canada harbor a large source of oil. But refinement of oil shales is difficult and thus not really profitable to pursue until oil hits about about $4.00 per gallon.
At $4.00 per gallon, oil companies will refine these oil shales for more oil because it is now profitable to do so.
Likewise, countries with developing infrastructure and alternative sources of energy will build new infrastructure to be less reliant on oil. Biodiesel, ethanol, and CNG (natural gas) come to mind.
Let's harbor some ridiculous scenarios. Suppose the price of Gas was now $1000 a gallon, but the price of other energy sources remained static. Would you begrudgingly pay $1000 per gallon? What would you do personally?
I would probably buy a Tesla. Because at $1000 per gallon, buying a Tesla no longer seems like an economically unwise decision. I can say that other people who would have to spend an hour walking/biking/taking the subway to work would probably do that. Just as you would adapt your personal life around the higher prices, so too would the greater market adapt to the expiration of the world's oil supply.
The rising price in relation to the scarcity would have long been anticipated by the market and adapted to compensate.
As a side note, the example above just illustrates the importance of price stability--one of the primary objectives of the federal reserve. Markets can adapt to changing trends if they have time to do so.
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However, petroleum is a limited resource, and people are mining it from the Earth at a rate faster than it can be replenished (it takes millions of years to form), so the world's supply of petroleum will inevitably be depleted, and if society has not yet made the transition to an alternative source of energy, we shall all be in great trouble when that depletion finally does occur.
In my mind, the best course of action for the oil companies to take would be to invest a portion of their vast resources into the research and development of alternative fuel sources, to be ready for when the world's supply of petroleum finally expires (or, hopefully, before then), so that the world does not become a Mad Max-style barren wasteland due to scarcity of fuel (interesting fact: the first Mad Max film was inspired by actual riots that occurred in Australia in the late 1970's when there was a sudden shortage of gasoline).
What does everyone else say about this? What shall the major oil companies do when the world's supply of oil finally does expire, if they have not prepared for that catastrophe?
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
“Patriotism means to stand by one's country; it does not mean to stand by one's president.”-Theodore Roosevelt
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
I don't think they're so dumb as to not prepare for the inevitable.
But, as B_S wrote, "when will the world's supply of oil dry up?" is a much better question to ask.
2. Oil reserves won't dry up overnight. They won't dry up in a year. They won't dry up in a century. What will happen is that prices will steadily increase as tapping available resources becomes more costly and inefficient. Oil will slowly stop looking attractive as prices go up, and people will slowly start migrating away to other energy sources. When the human race stops using oil, there will more than likely still be billions of barrels of oil left in the ground (though most will be in remote and hard-to-drill places).
3. Oil companies have plans for the days when oil goes out of vogue. For example, many invest in R&D for alternative energy sources. I guarantee they also have teams of scientists and economists whose only job is to forecast when and how this transition will happen. (Who knows how accurate ther forecasts are, but you can bet this issue is on their radar)
That doesn't mean that we'll find a great solution soon, of course. But it is what it is.
The question is when we hit a peak on oil production.
I would get even more specific and say the question is 'what will they do when demand declines?'
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
“Patriotism means to stand by one's country; it does not mean to stand by one's president.”-Theodore Roosevelt
My initial reaction was 'lol, you sweet summer child', but more seriously though chances are low. Unless you want to get an Electric Smart Car.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
I very much would like to get an electric car (a mall near where I live has a Tesla Motors store, complete with an actual vehicle for demonstration, and it is amazing), but the list price for such vehicles is far too high; it would take me years to recover the money that I spent, even if I was no longer purchasing gasoline, motor oil, antifreeze, etc.
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.”-Thomas Jefferson
“A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of its user.”-Theodore Roosevelt
“Patriotism means to stand by one's country; it does not mean to stand by one's president.”-Theodore Roosevelt
Price wise, I imagine the technology behind these cars would become less expensive as time goes on and the designs improve. I'm not sure five years will make a significant dent, however, and you may have to content yourself with a hybrid in the mean time.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
The oil companies like the setup they have. So they are going to spend their billions on scientists, politicians, etc, making sure that the next alternative after oil, is also controlled by them and makes them just as much money. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Fissionable material a finite quantity. Run out quickly. Nuclear not solution.
Probably burn all the coal we're sitting on.
Then we'll move North.
The "easily transported, runs automobiles" issue can be addressed by switching to nuclear-generated electric power. The plastics issue can be solved by using other manufacturing precursors like shale gas.
Fissionable material, like everything in the world, is certainly in a "finite quantity," but that quantity is really, really enormous. Using just uranium resources we know about presently, there are about 5.3 million metric tonnes of recoverable uranium in the ground. Each U.S. ton of uranium (which is about 10% smaller than a metric tonne) supplies energy equivalent to 80,000 barrels of oil.
That means, based on uranium supplies we know about now and excluding other fissionable material like thorium, we can produce energy equal to about 466 billion barrels of oil or 2.1e14 kWH of electricity. That's a lot of energy. That said, I will acknowledge there are arguments for why switching completely to nuclear is unfeasible. Still, nuclear can supply a lot of power and would prevent a the kind of worldwide collapse people are doomsaying about ITT.
It's already been plotted out for a while now.
Ambition must be made to counteract ambition.
Individualities may form communities, but it is institutions alone that can create a nation.
Nothing succeeds like the appearance of success.
Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle.
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
I tend to agree.
From many things I've read, and people (family) who work in Oil/Gas, we are well past the point of peak yield in most of the worlds' (known) current oil fields/deposits, which are generally considered of the cheap to extract variety. Not to say we are past peak production, just that the oil is getting more expensive to draw from the ground from here on in, and is only going to get more expensive.
Considering the effects of increased costs for everything is already here, as agriculture and everything else is based on a cheap fuel resource, and will continue to increase > add on the fact that most western countries have an ageing population with all the baby boomers out there expecting a pension/assistance/medical care, so many countries are faced with a future of having only a small % of population to tax.
Our economies tend to grow slowly, but contract with a vicious rapidity when global financial problems arise.
I would suggest it's only a matter of time before we have a major financial worldwide collapse of epic proportions, given how easily it happened with the GFC, and given that our whole economic system is based on growth > when Oil stops flowing cheaply and businesses go backwards?
I wouldn't wanna be in debt when it happens.
I would think you're right here > only a matter of waiting for the oil and/or gas price to kick them into gear.
I would suggest zero chance of that. Oil and gas is the cheapest you're likely to get.
I've read quite a bit about hydrogen systems that can harvest hydrogen from the air and covert it into fuel to power a car without the need to EVER refuel.
Great idea huh?
But from what I've read, the technology is a looooooong way off being ready, and has some major obstacles to ever being a product.
Put it this way, I am going to be 51 years old and have heard talk of alternative power sources for cars since I was in grade school. We were already suppose to be using electric cars that drove themselves to the destination told to them as we slept or did work.
I dont expect it to happen in my life time. At least not on a full scale. We are still making baby steps in terms of technology and cost.
Nuclear Power from Uranium may provide 210,000,000,000,000 kWH of electricity, however the United States alone consumes 3,882,000,000,000 kWH a year (U.S. Energy Information Administration / eia.gov). Meaning we would only get 54 years of power from it, assuming consumption rates remain unchanged during that time.
Ironically to sustain our modern culture, well have to change a cornerstone of what makes our modern culture, and shift from the exploitation of finite resources to renewable resources. Cease dependence upon global trade as it is, and focus on local sustainability.
I don't think we'll reach peak oil production by estimate of global reserves for at least another 100 years, if current estimations are correct. Saudi Arabia was estimated to have roughly 25% of the worlds oil supplies most of which has been tapped. Now it is estimated that Argentina possesses more than Saudi Arabia did.
That being said, what "I" think should be the question here is will we find an acceptable alternative fuel source before supply vs. demand reaches boiling point, and war becomes a necessity to sustain the status quo. Historically speaking conquest is the next stage in a situation such as this, and the pressure to do so will be present. Modern militaries cannot function without fuel, making being the last one to run out of fuel, the goal of every country with military strength enough to make an attempt at establishing control over the remaining major deposits.
We're getting there slowly. If penny-penching conservative Texas has a RPS standard of 25% of our energy coming from renewables, your state can do it too. We're not doing it because of some kooky conspiracy. It just makes economic sense.
At a high level, Ljoss is correct. Its just basic economics 101. We're not going to run out of oil overnight. We're not going to run out of oil suddenly.
When we do run out, it's not like oil companies are going to throw their arms up in the air and scream. What happened?
They're investing in alternative sources as we speak.
As oil supply dwindles, its cost will go up. As it's price goes up, the profit viability of alternative sources will go up too.
Because alternative sources of energy are now profitable, the market will respond by expanding the scope of those sources.
For instance, Oil Shales in Canada harbor a large source of oil. But refinement of oil shales is difficult and thus not really profitable to pursue until oil hits about about $4.00 per gallon.
At $4.00 per gallon, oil companies will refine these oil shales for more oil because it is now profitable to do so.
Likewise, countries with developing infrastructure and alternative sources of energy will build new infrastructure to be less reliant on oil. Biodiesel, ethanol, and CNG (natural gas) come to mind.
Let's harbor some ridiculous scenarios. Suppose the price of Gas was now $1000 a gallon, but the price of other energy sources remained static. Would you begrudgingly pay $1000 per gallon? What would you do personally?
I would probably buy a Tesla. Because at $1000 per gallon, buying a Tesla no longer seems like an economically unwise decision. I can say that other people who would have to spend an hour walking/biking/taking the subway to work would probably do that. Just as you would adapt your personal life around the higher prices, so too would the greater market adapt to the expiration of the world's oil supply.
The rising price in relation to the scarcity would have long been anticipated by the market and adapted to compensate.
As a side note, the example above just illustrates the importance of price stability--one of the primary objectives of the federal reserve. Markets can adapt to changing trends if they have time to do so.