Will Hillary give a keynote speech?
Will she use it as an opportunity to deflate Obama? Or play nice?
Will Bill speak?
Will they pull a roll call stunt like Reagan did to Ford? (explanatory link)
Will Michigan & Florida get to participate fully?
Protests?
Will John Edwards be denied the opportunity to speak b/c of the current love-child scandal? (which is rumored) Will our heroes defeat the evil Legion of Doom?
Hillary will speak, Bill will speak. Both with probably be universally nice. Edwards will not speak, and Obama said OK to Michigan and Florida (probably because his failure to not change their swing vote state status).
All in all, Obama will just give one of his all fluff no stuff speeches and everyone will cheer. He's probably the worst about only speaking to a friendly crowd.
I have not been paying attention, is it still going to be a the stadium, or did they decide to class it up a little?
Forgive me for not citing a source here but...its heresay. I heard that Hillary has a chance to steal the nomination from Obama at the Convention. Is there any truth to that?
Don't say never. I think people underestimate the ambition and hubris of the Clintons. If Obama takes a serious stumble in the polls, which it looks like he might do, I think Hillary might very well seize the chance and try and take the nomination at the convention. I don't think it'd be successful, but she's hungry enough to make the attempt if she thinks it's grabbable. And it'd be extremely damaging to Obama's chances.
Would never happen, Assassin. The sheer backlash that would occur if Hillary would to make that kind of a coup against Obama would be so great McCain could nominate Mel Gibson as vice president and spend from now until November line dancing and still sweep the election.
Don't say never. I think people underestimate the ambition and hubris of the Clintons. If Obama takes a serious stumble in the polls, which it looks like he might do, I think Hillary might very well seize the chance and try and take the nomination at the convention. I don't think it'd be successful, but she's hungry enough to make the attempt if she thinks it's grabbable. And it'd be extremely damaging to Obama's chances.
Still unlikely, but possible.
Possible in the sense I could get hit by a lightning bolt right now. Overwhelmingly improbable by any reasonable sense. And what serious stumble are you referring too? He is still favored to win the election currently.
I think what he's saying is that if Obama makes some horrific blunder that could cost him the presidency (like saying his first act as president would be forcing everyone to eat puppies or something), Hillary could become the new candidate.
However, it's not going to happen. If the Democrats were to jump ship now, they'd pave themselves a path of defeat. Plus, Obama's got a hefty bit of support on his hands.
So I have a question people. From numerous sources, I've seen that in all the swing states, Obama enjoys a heavy lead (read: HuffPost, Drudge Report). But on CNN, I see that this isn't true at all - and national polls tend to agree with CNN...or the accepted national polls. HuffPost says McCain was favored in one poll out of 12 taken in Pennsylvania, or something like that, but it was still a huge deal, thanks to media coverage of that poll exclusively. Anyone want to clear this up for me, if they can?
It's probably because these things are relying on different polls, each with their own varying degrees of accuracy.
Which brings me to a question: how are polls conducted anyway? Are they collected by phone?
Each poller has their own methodology, however yes they all use phone. Some pollsters (those like Rasmussen that frequently release polls) use robo-callers to do their polling, while others use real people. Various pollsters seperate between polling individual states and the country as a whole.
There are many factors that influence the accuracy of any one poll, sample size being one of the more obvious ones. However, pollsters generally also use a likely voter models to also influence the poll.
THIS is a good indicator of how effective any one pollster is.
Possible in the sense I could get hit by a lightning bolt right now. Overwhelmingly improbable by any reasonable sense. And what serious stumble are you referring too? He is still favored to win the election currently.
You underestimate the vitriol and pride of the Clinton machine.
And he chose a poor time to go on vacation in Hawaii, I think (yes, he has good reason to go to Hawaii, but it still plays worse than if he had gone home to, say, Vermont or Kansas).
It's not likely that Clinton will try such an upset, and it's almost certain that it would fail. But by no means would it be surprising. And Clinton will be the first one to tear Obama apart if he loses the election. She's surely hoping for a perfect 2012 setup at this point.
And he chose a poor time to go on vacation in Hawaii, I think (yes, he has good reason to go to Hawaii, but it still plays worse than if he had gone home to, say, Vermont or Kansas).
It's not likely that Clinton will try such an upset, and it's almost certain that it would fail. But by no means would it be surprising. And Clinton will be the first one to tear Obama apart if he loses the election. She's surely hoping for a perfect 2012 setup at this point.
If she is setting up for a 2012 election, then the least thing she would want to do is "steal" the dem nomination from Obama. You over-estimate her power, and under-estimate her intelligence.
Anyway, how is the Olympics not a great time for Obama to vacation? Right now the average American is focused on the Olympics not politics.
Speaking of which, did anyone else think the negative McCain ad was pretty inappropriate for a joyous time like the Olympics? Especially with the last commercial before Phelps accepting his medal being the McCain celebrity ad. I don't know what the McCain campaign was thinking.
And he chose a poor time to go on vacation in Hawaii, I think (yes, he has good reason to go to Hawaii, but it still plays worse than if he had gone home to, say, Vermont or Kansas).
It's not likely that Clinton will try such an upset, and it's almost certain that it would fail. But by no means would it be surprising. And Clinton will be the first one to tear Obama apart if he loses the election. She's surely hoping for a perfect 2012 setup at this point.
I can't disagree more on both points, TIBA. He needs a vacation, you could see the wear the campaign was having on him and this is the only time possible, any closer to November would be out of the question. So, yes, the timing of the Georgia situation is unfortunate, but as said, the Olympics and Mr. Edwards is drawing most the media attention right now. Even if next week we see more of Mr. McCain than normal, that isn't a detriment to the Obama campaign, it is an opportunity that should be welcomed; giving McCain time for more gaffes and flawed arguments is fine.
As for a Clinton nomination-grab at the convention, you must be lying to yourself when you say that you wouldn't be surprised. You would be surprised for the very reasons that you mention: because clearly it would not work and clearly it would be end her political career (ie. no 2012 or 2016 run). So why would someone as intelligent (admittedly also bitter and egotistical as well) as Ms. Clinton make such a blunder?
But honestly, who would want to be the Democratic nominee in 2012 after a McCain administration? If we can not win in this political environment, I can't see one where we can win one.
As for the race in general, you can say I am being arrogant or that I am overestimating Mr. Obama's chances, but at this point in the race I am not at all swayed by the arguments that it shouldn't be this close. I'm not swayed because, simply put, it isn't close. National polls are a tad tight, but national polls do not decide the presidency, the Electoral College does. And with Obama having sizable leads in every Kerry state, and running ahead or close in a dozen other states, I'm confident that if America went to the polls today, the Democrats would be delivered a landslide. All you have to do is look at Pollster's map, or even Karl Rove's. Of course, it is the Democrats we are talking about, so I'm willing to concede anything is possible in the next 90 days, but right now it is a laugher.
Smart people do stupid things all the time. But it's all just speculation right now.
I think it would be greatly ironic if Obama won via the electoral college. I'd love to watch that one play out just for the scope of amusement value.
I'm not at all saying I think that is a likely result this cycle, I think he will win both. I just do not see why people stress the importance of national polling.
I read a bit further into this thread, a lot of it is good reading. I know the issue has been pretty much dropped, but I read an informative item on cell phone polling recently at Daily Kos, so here it is for those still interested.
I found this (kind of) interesting. Hopefully we'll hear something important from the Obama camp soon, but for now I was wondering if anyone is signing up for this.
Well, it's another (fairly clever) way for him to scrub/bolster his contributor lists.
I don't see that it will have the desired effect though. I mean, is anyone other than his existing supporters going to want to hear this news immediately anyway?
Well, it's another (fairly clever) way for him to scrub/bolster his contributor lists.
I don't see that it will have the desired effect though. I mean, is anyone other than his existing supporters going to want to hear this news immediately anyway?
I think they're going for word of mouth, for those enthusiastic supporters to then tell persons X, Y, and Z about the new VP candidate to drum up more enthusiam and support for Senator Obama.
Also, it tries to make the contributors and supporters of Senator Obama feel more in touch with their candidate.
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I was pretty excited for Modern.
Not so much anymore.
I think they're going for word of mouth, for those enthusiastic supporters to then tell persons X, Y, and Z about the new VP candidate to drum up more enthusiam and support for Senator Obama.
I doubt this. It's more likely to cause word of mouth criticizing of his choice.
Also, it tries to make the contributors and supporters of Senator Obama feel more in touch with their candidate.
This, however, is true. It's kinda funny to think how many will actually believe it.
It also continues to make the distinction of Obama's campaign being one of the future, one that understands and can put to use today's technology as opposed to John McCain's, who personally can not use the internet.
That said, I got the email and definately did not sign up. I don't want them texting me random things like what I get in my inbox, and I will surely hear about whoever the VP nomination is right after I would get the text, anyway.
Anyone know why the Democrats haven't even mentioned the fact that McCain finished 894/899 in his graduating class? One would think it would swing quite a few votes, since sixth from last is unbelievably horrible, especially considering Obama finished first in law school
Anyone know why the Democrats haven't even mentioned the fact that McCain finished 894/899 in his graduating class? One would think it would swing quite a few votes, since sixth from last is unbelievably horrible, especially considering Obama finished first in law school
Because they tried that with Bush and he got elected anyway?
Anyone know why the Democrats haven't even mentioned the fact that McCain finished 894/899 in his graduating class? One would think it would swing quite a few votes, since sixth from last is unbelievably horrible, especially considering Obama finished first in law school
Given what he's done with his life since, who cares about McCain's academic performance of fifty years ago? The reason the Democrats haven't mentioned this little factoid is because it would be unbelievably (and transparently) petty to do so.
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Love. Forgive. Trust. Be willing to be broken that you may be remade.
Because they tried that with Bush and he got elected anyway?
But even Bush wasn't this bad. Sixth to last in a class of 900 is completely ridiculous considering the man is running for president.
Given what he's done with his life since, who cares about McCain's academic performance of fifty years ago? The reason the Democrats haven't mentioned this little factoid is because it would be unbelievably (and transparently) petty to do so.
But such a horrible ranking reeks of no motivation and no natural intelligence whatsoever; for a voter who is undecided and divided on the issues, it would probably make sense to take the guy who finished first over a total idiot.
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So, what do you think will happen at DNCC?
Will Hillary give a keynote speech?
Will she use it as an opportunity to deflate Obama? Or play nice?
Will Bill speak?
Will they pull a roll call stunt like Reagan did to Ford? (explanatory link)
Will Michigan & Florida get to participate fully?
Protests?
Will John Edwards be denied the opportunity to speak b/c of the current love-child scandal? (which is rumored)
Will our heroes defeat the evil Legion of Doom?
Fully-powered 600-Card "Dream Cube" https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/dreamcube
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Hillary will speak, Bill will speak. Both with probably be universally nice. Edwards will not speak, and Obama said OK to Michigan and Florida (probably because his failure to not change their swing vote state status).
All in all, Obama will just give one of his all fluff no stuff speeches and everyone will cheer. He's probably the worst about only speaking to a friendly crowd.
I have not been paying attention, is it still going to be a the stadium, or did they decide to class it up a little?
[EDH] Ob Nixilis the Fallen
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
Still unlikely, but possible.
Possible in the sense I could get hit by a lightning bolt right now. Overwhelmingly improbable by any reasonable sense. And what serious stumble are you referring too? He is still favored to win the election currently.
- Enslaught
However, it's not going to happen. If the Democrats were to jump ship now, they'd pave themselves a path of defeat. Plus, Obama's got a hefty bit of support on his hands.
Which brings me to a question: how are polls conducted anyway? Are they collected by phone?
Each poller has their own methodology, however yes they all use phone. Some pollsters (those like Rasmussen that frequently release polls) use robo-callers to do their polling, while others use real people. Various pollsters seperate between polling individual states and the country as a whole.
There are many factors that influence the accuracy of any one poll, sample size being one of the more obvious ones. However, pollsters generally also use a likely voter models to also influence the poll.
THIS is a good indicator of how effective any one pollster is.
- Enslaught
You underestimate the vitriol and pride of the Clinton machine.
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11885292
And he chose a poor time to go on vacation in Hawaii, I think (yes, he has good reason to go to Hawaii, but it still plays worse than if he had gone home to, say, Vermont or Kansas).
It's not likely that Clinton will try such an upset, and it's almost certain that it would fail. But by no means would it be surprising. And Clinton will be the first one to tear Obama apart if he loses the election. She's surely hoping for a perfect 2012 setup at this point.
If she is setting up for a 2012 election, then the least thing she would want to do is "steal" the dem nomination from Obama. You over-estimate her power, and under-estimate her intelligence.
Anyway, how is the Olympics not a great time for Obama to vacation? Right now the average American is focused on the Olympics not politics.
Speaking of which, did anyone else think the negative McCain ad was pretty inappropriate for a joyous time like the Olympics? Especially with the last commercial before Phelps accepting his medal being the McCain celebrity ad. I don't know what the McCain campaign was thinking.
- Enslaught
I can't disagree more on both points, TIBA. He needs a vacation, you could see the wear the campaign was having on him and this is the only time possible, any closer to November would be out of the question. So, yes, the timing of the Georgia situation is unfortunate, but as said, the Olympics and Mr. Edwards is drawing most the media attention right now. Even if next week we see more of Mr. McCain than normal, that isn't a detriment to the Obama campaign, it is an opportunity that should be welcomed; giving McCain time for more gaffes and flawed arguments is fine.
As for a Clinton nomination-grab at the convention, you must be lying to yourself when you say that you wouldn't be surprised. You would be surprised for the very reasons that you mention: because clearly it would not work and clearly it would be end her political career (ie. no 2012 or 2016 run). So why would someone as intelligent (admittedly also bitter and egotistical as well) as Ms. Clinton make such a blunder?
But honestly, who would want to be the Democratic nominee in 2012 after a McCain administration? If we can not win in this political environment, I can't see one where we can win one.
As for the race in general, you can say I am being arrogant or that I am overestimating Mr. Obama's chances, but at this point in the race I am not at all swayed by the arguments that it shouldn't be this close. I'm not swayed because, simply put, it isn't close. National polls are a tad tight, but national polls do not decide the presidency, the Electoral College does. And with Obama having sizable leads in every Kerry state, and running ahead or close in a dozen other states, I'm confident that if America went to the polls today, the Democrats would be delivered a landslide. All you have to do is look at Pollster's map, or even Karl Rove's. Of course, it is the Democrats we are talking about, so I'm willing to concede anything is possible in the next 90 days, but right now it is a laugher.
I think it would be greatly ironic if Obama won via the electoral college. I'd love to watch that one play out just for the scope of amusement value.
I'm not at all saying I think that is a likely result this cycle, I think he will win both. I just do not see why people stress the importance of national polling.
I read a bit further into this thread, a lot of it is good reading. I know the issue has been pretty much dropped, but I read an informative item on cell phone polling recently at Daily Kos, so here it is for those still interested.
I found this (kind of) interesting. Hopefully we'll hear something important from the Obama camp soon, but for now I was wondering if anyone is signing up for this.
Well, it's another (fairly clever) way for him to scrub/bolster his contributor lists.
I don't see that it will have the desired effect though. I mean, is anyone other than his existing supporters going to want to hear this news immediately anyway?
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I think they're going for word of mouth, for those enthusiastic supporters to then tell persons X, Y, and Z about the new VP candidate to drum up more enthusiam and support for Senator Obama.
Also, it tries to make the contributors and supporters of Senator Obama feel more in touch with their candidate.
Not so much anymore.
I doubt this. It's more likely to cause word of mouth criticizing of his choice.
This, however, is true. It's kinda funny to think how many will actually believe it.
That said, I got the email and definately did not sign up. I don't want them texting me random things like what I get in my inbox, and I will surely hear about whoever the VP nomination is right after I would get the text, anyway.
Because they tried that with Bush and he got elected anyway?
Given what he's done with his life since, who cares about McCain's academic performance of fifty years ago? The reason the Democrats haven't mentioned this little factoid is because it would be unbelievably (and transparently) petty to do so.
But even Bush wasn't this bad. Sixth to last in a class of 900 is completely ridiculous considering the man is running for president.
But such a horrible ranking reeks of no motivation and no natural intelligence whatsoever; for a voter who is undecided and divided on the issues, it would probably make sense to take the guy who finished first over a total idiot.