This is specifically referring to standard chase cards.
I pulled up MTGgoldfish looking at the T8 decklists from the PT and thought it strange that the online prices were within 10-15% of paper. I know that most of these cards are chase and that the redeemable set value is still far below (stabilize at 20% +25 usually) paper prices but it seems to me that with pack prices stabilized by only giving out packs as prizes for some limited events the prices for chase constructed cards has risen to the point where demand controls the price not redemption.
If this trend continues wotc will nix redemption. Do you think redemption is still critical for MTGO to function or is there more wotc can do tinkering with pack to chest to point payouts to further reduce redemption demand?
If that's the case won't it increase post release demand for boxes since boxes will again be the only way to get paper sets?
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
it seems to me that with pack prices stabilized by only giving out packs as prizes for some limited events the prices for chase constructed cards has risen to the point where demand controls the price not redemption.
If this trend continues wotc will nix redemption.
So, I followed the first paragraph, but then this assertion comes out of nowhere. Why do you think that they'll do away with the (popular) redemption program that continues to bridge the gap between MODO and cardboard? You suggest that if they do so, paper prices will rise, which seems correct - and also something that WOTC would want to avoid.
Redemption is a great psychological tool to help alleviate fear. People are less afraid of putting their money in this hole in the ground if there's a tangible way to get something physical out of it at the end. With a $25/set fee, they're probably even making a buck or two for every set that gets redeemed. It's a win/win for both WOTC and the playerbase. I don't see it going away any time soon.
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it seems to me that with pack prices stabilized by only giving out packs as prizes for some limited events the prices for chase constructed cards has risen to the point where demand controls the price not redemption.
If this trend continues wotc will nix redemption.
So, I followed the first paragraph, but then this assertion comes out of nowhere. Why do you think that they'll do away with the (popular) redemption program that continues to bridge the gap between MODO and cardboard? You suggest that if they do so, paper prices will rise, which seems correct - and also something that WOTC would want to avoid.
Redemption is a great psychological tool to help alleviate fear. People are less afraid of putting their money in this hole in the ground if there's a tangible way to get something physical out of it at the end. With a $25/set fee, they're probably even making a buck or two for every set that gets redeemed. It's a win/win for both WOTC and the playerbase. I don't see it going away any time soon.
So you think they would just leave it there as a failsafe? I would agree with that for a while, but if the number of sets redeemed falls below the threshold to print the sets I could easily see them nixing it. Many of us have suspected that has been their goal for a while.
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
Honestly I have always viewed the Redemption policy on mtgo as being something that wizards initially used as a method to encourage confidence for those spending money on mtgo to have a way to be able to "cash out" into paper magic while propping up the relative value of the cards due to the outflow of sets helping to at least make it somewhat worthwhile to draft and otherwise beyond just prizes (less supply on mtgo leading to higher values (supply/demand).
What ended up inevitably happening in the post mythic environment however, was that it acted as a way to help not only prop up values on mtgo, but also to help to reign in some of the crazy prices for some of the mythics from the redeemable sets, since a set redeemed from mtgo adds to the number of mythics/rares equally versus the usual ratio of 2 of each rare to 1 of each mythic for pack opening and such for paper magic. It just helps to round things out a bit.
The change to start charging the $25 fee (per set....) was a bit much in my opinion, but I suppose they saw the amount of people making use of the redemption system for business purposes and came up with a number that they felt might help to reign in the amount of redemptions a bit, while also helping to give a better cost basis for wizards to keep the program going, even if it did effectively then suppress the values of the cards by an equivalent amount versus their old relative mtgo values.
That said however, if at some point redemptions begin to trickle down to a point where there just aren't enough anymore to warrant the printing costs/time to package and ship/ and otherwise to keep it up, and if wizards believes that mtgo can survive without redemption (this is by far the largest thing here by a mile), then they may well get rid of it. But if they feel that redemption is needed to keep balance within their system to keep people on mtgo drafting and otherwise at a high rate to make them the most profit, then they will keep it active for as long as they feel they need to.
I think the recent devaluing of standard cards due to the masterpieces/etc that are coming out with each set now, are likely putting pressure on the potential valuation setup for people being able to redeem sets (after that $25 fee) and still be able to turn a profit while doing it. Its all a giant balancing act.
I know for my own ends, once the $25 fee was instituted, I completely stopped redeeming sets from mtgo for purposes of stocking the shop or otherwise at the time (of course, given that I also left the shop the end of 2012 .... needing cards for the shop really wasn't necessary anymore after that anyway) Though I do poke around on mtgo from time to time to see what things are looking like as far as set redemptions vs paper values go, and I really haven't seen much viable there for quite some time, I'm sure others would be more knowledgeable an experienced there though for more recent years than I would be as I don't check on a consistent basis or anything like I used to.
Anyhow, hopefully some of those thoughts are useful :).
So you think they would just leave it there as a failsafe? I would agree with that for a while, but if the number of sets redeemed falls below the threshold to print the sets I could easily see them nixing it. Many of us have suspected that has been their goal for a while.
So, if WOTC stopped redemption, the demand for physical cards would not suddenly dry up - people would just buy more boxes. Since standard boxes are "print to demand", WOTC would still be printing the same number of cards, if not more - since most of the demand is for the mythics and rares, they'd have to print a lot more commons for everyone who wants a playset of rares, instead of just printing a single set of commons for each set of rares. And those commons cost WOTC exactly as much to print as an equal number of rares. So it's entirely possible, likely even, that redemption saves them money by decreasing printing costs.
Also, don't overlook the fact that it would push Masterpiece values down. As it is, Masterpieces are only available in boxes, which account for a percentage (let's say half) of the cards in circulation. So the ratio of MPS cards to rares is a certain number X:Y. But if WOTC stopped redemption and people bought more boxes, then you have the same number of rares/mythics being opened, but twice as many Masterpieces. Increased supply will push their prices down, which will in turn either push box prices down, or push rare/mythic prices up to compensate. One of Rosewater's given justifications for continuing the MPS series is that it helps push M/R prices down. This would reverse that trend.
It's in WOTC's best interests to continue doing redemption. It helps encourage confidence in the product by presenting an "escape hatch" to get physical cards. It actually reduces the total number of cards that they have to print, and it helps them make their rare toys rarer so that they can have the intended effect on pricing (that one's possible to overcome; just have to change the odds of opening one, but that quashes the dreams of lower-budget players).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Along with many mods, I've moved shop over to MTGNexus. Come check us out!
No Redemption is the justification for wizards to charge MSRP on all packs for MTGO. If they nixed redemption people would DEMAND power prices (after all no printing costs ect) Why buy on mtgo when I can buy on at my LGS at a considerable discount (compaired to mtgo) They would likely have to start charging less for packs, since its "only a digital product" now. not a "real" product. Even if they get 0 redemptions they will keep it since it helps keep the margins up.
I pulled up MTGgoldfish looking at the T8 decklists from the PT and thought it strange that the online prices were within 10-15% of paper. I know that most of these cards are chase and that the redeemable set value is still far below (stabilize at 20% +25 usually) paper prices but it seems to me that with pack prices stabilized by only giving out packs as prizes for some limited events the prices for chase constructed cards has risen to the point where demand controls the price not redemption.
If this trend continues wotc will nix redemption. Do you think redemption is still critical for MTGO to function or is there more wotc can do tinkering with pack to chest to point payouts to further reduce redemption demand?
If that's the case won't it increase post release demand for boxes since boxes will again be the only way to get paper sets?
So, I followed the first paragraph, but then this assertion comes out of nowhere. Why do you think that they'll do away with the (popular) redemption program that continues to bridge the gap between MODO and cardboard? You suggest that if they do so, paper prices will rise, which seems correct - and also something that WOTC would want to avoid.
Redemption is a great psychological tool to help alleviate fear. People are less afraid of putting their money in this hole in the ground if there's a tangible way to get something physical out of it at the end. With a $25/set fee, they're probably even making a buck or two for every set that gets redeemed. It's a win/win for both WOTC and the playerbase. I don't see it going away any time soon.
So you think they would just leave it there as a failsafe? I would agree with that for a while, but if the number of sets redeemed falls below the threshold to print the sets I could easily see them nixing it. Many of us have suspected that has been their goal for a while.
What ended up inevitably happening in the post mythic environment however, was that it acted as a way to help not only prop up values on mtgo, but also to help to reign in some of the crazy prices for some of the mythics from the redeemable sets, since a set redeemed from mtgo adds to the number of mythics/rares equally versus the usual ratio of 2 of each rare to 1 of each mythic for pack opening and such for paper magic. It just helps to round things out a bit.
The change to start charging the $25 fee (per set....) was a bit much in my opinion, but I suppose they saw the amount of people making use of the redemption system for business purposes and came up with a number that they felt might help to reign in the amount of redemptions a bit, while also helping to give a better cost basis for wizards to keep the program going, even if it did effectively then suppress the values of the cards by an equivalent amount versus their old relative mtgo values.
That said however, if at some point redemptions begin to trickle down to a point where there just aren't enough anymore to warrant the printing costs/time to package and ship/ and otherwise to keep it up, and if wizards believes that mtgo can survive without redemption (this is by far the largest thing here by a mile), then they may well get rid of it. But if they feel that redemption is needed to keep balance within their system to keep people on mtgo drafting and otherwise at a high rate to make them the most profit, then they will keep it active for as long as they feel they need to.
I think the recent devaluing of standard cards due to the masterpieces/etc that are coming out with each set now, are likely putting pressure on the potential valuation setup for people being able to redeem sets (after that $25 fee) and still be able to turn a profit while doing it. Its all a giant balancing act.
I know for my own ends, once the $25 fee was instituted, I completely stopped redeeming sets from mtgo for purposes of stocking the shop or otherwise at the time (of course, given that I also left the shop the end of 2012 .... needing cards for the shop really wasn't necessary anymore after that anyway) Though I do poke around on mtgo from time to time to see what things are looking like as far as set redemptions vs paper values go, and I really haven't seen much viable there for quite some time, I'm sure others would be more knowledgeable an experienced there though for more recent years than I would be as I don't check on a consistent basis or anything like I used to.
Anyhow, hopefully some of those thoughts are useful :).
So, if WOTC stopped redemption, the demand for physical cards would not suddenly dry up - people would just buy more boxes. Since standard boxes are "print to demand", WOTC would still be printing the same number of cards, if not more - since most of the demand is for the mythics and rares, they'd have to print a lot more commons for everyone who wants a playset of rares, instead of just printing a single set of commons for each set of rares. And those commons cost WOTC exactly as much to print as an equal number of rares. So it's entirely possible, likely even, that redemption saves them money by decreasing printing costs.
Also, don't overlook the fact that it would push Masterpiece values down. As it is, Masterpieces are only available in boxes, which account for a percentage (let's say half) of the cards in circulation. So the ratio of MPS cards to rares is a certain number X:Y. But if WOTC stopped redemption and people bought more boxes, then you have the same number of rares/mythics being opened, but twice as many Masterpieces. Increased supply will push their prices down, which will in turn either push box prices down, or push rare/mythic prices up to compensate. One of Rosewater's given justifications for continuing the MPS series is that it helps push M/R prices down. This would reverse that trend.
It's in WOTC's best interests to continue doing redemption. It helps encourage confidence in the product by presenting an "escape hatch" to get physical cards. It actually reduces the total number of cards that they have to print, and it helps them make their rare toys rarer so that they can have the intended effect on pricing (that one's possible to overcome; just have to change the odds of opening one, but that quashes the dreams of lower-budget players).