With the current Standard hype on the heels of PT DTK, the "Summer of Modern" looming with 3 big Modern GPs to support MMA2 @ the end of May (including CFB's GP Las Vegas), and with MMA2 being strictly up to Zendikar block as far as reprint risk goes, it seems like a great opportunity to buy Modern playables from the last 2 blocks. These cards likely won't be reprinted for a few years and will be in high demand when everyone wants to play Modern this summer.
Cards of Note (all prices from MTG Goldfish):
INN Block
Liliana of the Veil: ~81 tix - could be the next Goyf Griselbrand ~43 tix - already high tag for a specific archetype card, doesn't seem like a great spec but still could rise Snapcaster Mage: ~14 tix - card seems like a good short and long-term spec for an all-around beast of a card Geist of Saint Traft: ~13 tix - lower ceiling than Snappy due to the linear application Cavern of Souls ~9 tix - unique ability, room to grow for all lovers of creature decks Restoration Angel ~5 tix - versatile card that fits in several builds Thalia, Gaurdian of Thraben ~4 tix - hate bear with lots of anti-control applications and unique ability Olivia Voldaren: ~3 tix - MTGO doesn't get the casual bonus, but still a fringe playable Modern card
Enemy Tap Lands (Clifftop Retreat, Sulfur Falls, etc): ~1-2 tix - not great in Modern, but playable and will be in demand to some degree
RTR Block
Voice of Resurgence: ~16 tix - Wow, Dragon's Maze is one helluva of a crappy set (entire set is only valued @ 27 tix lulz). This card definitely has room to grow again, however. Sphinx's Revelation: ~13 tix - Control being down in Modern keeps this price lower than it's potential ceiling Jace, Architect of Thought: ~7 tix - Doubtful his superior brother gets unbanned anytime soon, and underrated card IMO Abrupt Decay: ~5 tix - Probably my favorite short term spec, seems way too low for a versatile and powerful effect
I'm not looking to invest in all of these cards, but there is some definitely room to grow for most of them. Modern seems like a safe short and long term investment for the time being - what are your thoughts?
I think you should base these specs off price history and how well you think the cards will be positioned in the future. And the price history should be based off of when it was out of standard, since standard is much more popular than modern.
Liliana peaked at 100. She's now at 81 http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Liliana of the Veil#online
So she has room to go up. I'm not really interested in putting in 80 tix into one spec. I'd only speculate on this card if it put up a bunch of copies in a GP/PT top 8. Then you could pump and dump.
Thalia peaked at 5, she's 4 now http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Dark Ascension/Thalia Guardian of Thraben#online
I think this card sucks in modern. It's better in vintage/legacy. But it is pretty cheap considering its power level. There's also a paper promo of this card, and the art is in mtgo, so it'll be a promo most likely.
Olivia peaked at 7, she's now worth 3 http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Olivia Voldaren#online
I don't really like this card since it dies to bolt a lot. But Reid Duke and Edel like jund, so it will go up, and you can see the price is start to go up slightly due to Reid Duke's hype.
ISD check lands. Sulfur falls is the most expensive one, it peaked at 2.8, it's now 1.9 http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Sulfur Falls#online
If you can get them(sulfur falls) under 1 ticket they're a safe investment. The other ones are too cheap to make any decent profit.
Abrupt Decay is a multi format staple, and went up in price after rotation instead of going down in price like all cards do. I think lots of people speculated on this one. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Abrupt Decay#online
This is a great spec if it drops to 4 tickets.
My short term(favorite) picks would be abrupt decay, voice, and olivia. Liliana is a great card to make 5-10 tickets on if it does well at a tournament.
WotC wanted to reprint liliana in M15. But they didn't since she would be too good in black devotion. Then when you look at the next core set, they already printed a liliana planeswalker, so the earliest reprint will be in Return to Zendikar. I agree Liliana is going to get reprinted soon based on them wanting to reprint it in M15.
Actually the modern specs I would buy, are the expensive cards not reprinted in MMA2. Those are much safer and better short term speculations.
With regards to a Liliana reprint, I feel like we are a near lock to have an Innistrad flashback draft sometime in the next couple of months. There should be at least a couple of Cube drafts going on (they like to do Cube when paper releases happen, and we've got MM2 and Origins this summer) and, with MM2 hype and WOTC pushing Modern, it only makes sense they would do INN flashback to help make those cards more affordable. I was honestly surprised they did ROE instead of INN last time Cube was around.
With that said, flashback drafts generally only lead to temporary price decreases, so if Lilianas drop to 60 tix or something, it might be worth picking them up then.
I'm definitely looking to pick up Abrupt Decays at a high clip, and the recent ~1 ticket downtrend has been a good sign. Voice has been a steady ~16 ticket card for a while now, so it's consistent value is exactly where you want to be in a spec. Liliana is another safe pick because it sure isn't going to be reprinted soon in a regular set.
I do agree that an INN flashback draft if possible, but it certainly won't satisfy the demand for Liliana enough for anyone to lose a significant amount of long-term value. I will certainly buy some if the Flashback event does happen and it drops her price ~20/30%.
Olivia is a card Spikes and Johnnies alike will want to jam in Modern brews. Same with multi-colored mythics like Huntmaster of the Fells, which seems like a decent target @ 3 tix.
I think the most interesting financial event to watch is what happens with Old Zen Fetchlands in the short term. Everyone knows they'll be back (Battle for Zendikar), but is there enough supply currently to satisfy the demand for people who want to play Modern this summer, which is a full 5 months before Battle For Zen is even spoiled (5 months is an eternity in the Magic World). The discrepancy between the sell price and the buy price from bots who are looking to minimize reprint risk is another interest aspect.
I'm less certain that Liliana will be reprinted in a Standard product any time soon. Jace the Mind Sculptor was originally in Magic 2012 (can't remember the source article but it was from the mothership) and removed in favour of a new Jace when it was decided he was too good. Rather than attempt to craft an environment where he wouldn't be oppressive, WotC simply didn't reprint him.
I recall Maro saying the same was tried with Tarmogoyf, although I'm less certain of that recollection.
For those reasons I would not be surprised if WotC gave up on LotV. (I'm not saying they definitely have either).
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Cards of Note (all prices from MTG Goldfish):
INN Block
Liliana of the Veil: ~81 tix - could be the next Goyf
Griselbrand ~43 tix - already high tag for a specific archetype card, doesn't seem like a great spec but still could rise
Snapcaster Mage: ~14 tix - card seems like a good short and long-term spec for an all-around beast of a card
Geist of Saint Traft: ~13 tix - lower ceiling than Snappy due to the linear application
Cavern of Souls ~9 tix - unique ability, room to grow for all lovers of creature decks
Restoration Angel ~5 tix - versatile card that fits in several builds
Thalia, Gaurdian of Thraben ~4 tix - hate bear with lots of anti-control applications and unique ability
Olivia Voldaren: ~3 tix - MTGO doesn't get the casual bonus, but still a fringe playable Modern card
Enemy Tap Lands (Clifftop Retreat, Sulfur Falls, etc): ~1-2 tix - not great in Modern, but playable and will be in demand to some degree
RTR Block
Voice of Resurgence: ~16 tix - Wow, Dragon's Maze is one helluva of a crappy set (entire set is only valued @ 27 tix lulz). This card definitely has room to grow again, however.
Sphinx's Revelation: ~13 tix - Control being down in Modern keeps this price lower than it's potential ceiling
Jace, Architect of Thought: ~7 tix - Doubtful his superior brother gets unbanned anytime soon, and underrated card IMO
Abrupt Decay: ~5 tix - Probably my favorite short term spec, seems way too low for a versatile and powerful effect
I'm not looking to invest in all of these cards, but there is some definitely room to grow for most of them. Modern seems like a safe short and long term investment for the time being - what are your thoughts?
Liliana peaked at 100. She's now at 81
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Liliana of the Veil#online
So she has room to go up. I'm not really interested in putting in 80 tix into one spec. I'd only speculate on this card if it put up a bunch of copies in a GP/PT top 8. Then you could pump and dump.
Griselbrand's peak was 58, it's now at 43
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Avacyn Restored/Griselbrand#online
There is a potential of this being a MOCS promo since there is already new art in paper. I'd stay away unless you can get into a pump and dump situation.
Snapcaster mage's peak was 15, now it's at 14.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Snapcaster Mage#online
The card is at historical highs, i'd stay away.
Geist peaked at 25, he's now half that.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Geist of Saint Traft#online
I don't really like Geist in the format. It is more of a long term spec because the card is super powerful and could become good again in the future.
Cavern is close to it's historical high, stay away.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Avacyn Restored/Cavern of Souls#online
Restoration angel peaked at 10, it's half that now.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Avacyn Restored/Restoration Angel#online
I like this spec, since it beats a lot of the removal in modern. But it's more of a long term card.
Sphinx's Revelation needs a lot of cards to make this archetype good. It peaked at 17, now it's 13.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Sphinxs Revelation#online
It's more of a long term spec.
Thalia peaked at 5, she's 4 now
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Dark Ascension/Thalia Guardian of Thraben#online
I think this card sucks in modern. It's better in vintage/legacy. But it is pretty cheap considering its power level. There's also a paper promo of this card, and the art is in mtgo, so it'll be a promo most likely.
Olivia peaked at 7, she's now worth 3
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Olivia Voldaren#online
I don't really like this card since it dies to bolt a lot. But Reid Duke and Edel like jund, so it will go up, and you can see the price is start to go up slightly due to Reid Duke's hype.
ISD check lands. Sulfur falls is the most expensive one, it peaked at 2.8, it's now 1.9
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Sulfur Falls#online
If you can get them(sulfur falls) under 1 ticket they're a safe investment. The other ones are too cheap to make any decent profit.
Voice had a peak of 38, now it's 16, this is a great spec. This card is usually a 3-4 of.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Dragons Maze/Voice of Resurgence#online
Jace AoT is at historical highs, would not touch
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Jace Architect of Thought#online
Abrupt Decay is a multi format staple, and went up in price after rotation instead of going down in price like all cards do. I think lots of people speculated on this one.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Return to Ravnica/Abrupt Decay#online
This is a great spec if it drops to 4 tickets.
My short term(favorite) picks would be abrupt decay, voice, and olivia. Liliana is a great card to make 5-10 tickets on if it does well at a tournament.
Actually the modern specs I would buy, are the expensive cards not reprinted in MMA2. Those are much safer and better short term speculations.
With that said, flashback drafts generally only lead to temporary price decreases, so if Lilianas drop to 60 tix or something, it might be worth picking them up then.
I'm definitely looking to pick up Abrupt Decays at a high clip, and the recent ~1 ticket downtrend has been a good sign. Voice has been a steady ~16 ticket card for a while now, so it's consistent value is exactly where you want to be in a spec. Liliana is another safe pick because it sure isn't going to be reprinted soon in a regular set.
I do agree that an INN flashback draft if possible, but it certainly won't satisfy the demand for Liliana enough for anyone to lose a significant amount of long-term value. I will certainly buy some if the Flashback event does happen and it drops her price ~20/30%.
Olivia is a card Spikes and Johnnies alike will want to jam in Modern brews. Same with multi-colored mythics like Huntmaster of the Fells, which seems like a decent target @ 3 tix.
I think the most interesting financial event to watch is what happens with Old Zen Fetchlands in the short term. Everyone knows they'll be back (Battle for Zendikar), but is there enough supply currently to satisfy the demand for people who want to play Modern this summer, which is a full 5 months before Battle For Zen is even spoiled (5 months is an eternity in the Magic World). The discrepancy between the sell price and the buy price from bots who are looking to minimize reprint risk is another interest aspect.
I recall Maro saying the same was tried with Tarmogoyf, although I'm less certain of that recollection.
For those reasons I would not be surprised if WotC gave up on LotV. (I'm not saying they definitely have either).