With KTK prices currently ~70 tickets for the entire set, and FRF @ ~80 tix, there should be some good opportunity for investment once KTK stops being opened completely in 2 weeks.
Fetchlands in the set seem to lower the ceiling on KTK Mythics for some reason - I don't know exactly why, but there must be some correlation to due to there only be room for a certain amount of value in a set.
FRF has seem decent spec potential as well being a short lifespan small set that is only ever opened as 1-of in draft.
Either way, what are your buy/sell/hold thoughts for the next few weeks?
KTK Fetches - Seems like a buy or hold @ 2 to 4.5 tix. They still will be opened to a small degree in DTK-DTK-FRF, but they seem like a safe investment. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon - Seems like a buy @ 11 tix. This card is powerful, flashy, and probably is close to its floor. We could see more ramp strategies with possible Eldrazi coming in the next block. The promo version hurts it potential a bit. Monastery Mentor - Sell @ 14/15 tix. This card seems to spike after Vintage Super League nights - it's pretty weak in current Standard and sees no Modern play, so not sure how it's become the most expensive card in FRF, but I don't think that sticks. Siege Rhino - Buy @ 2 tix. Standard staple and no reason why this shouldn't rise. Dig Through Time - Buy @ 2 tix. Control renaissance could be coming with DTK's release. See the Unwritten - Buy @ 2.5 tix. This card is already rising due to speculation with Return to Zendikar (Eldrazi) - there is definitely still room to grow. Jeskai Ascendancy - Engine card still only .5 tix. It's a deck on it's own that is currently T2 ish in Standard. Could be improved with DTK cards like Anticipate.
Can't afford it atm, but if I had money, I'd buy several dozen complete (standard) sets of KTK in this situation. 65 tix each - I see no way that buying fifty of those could go bad.
My question is, what does the early KTK/FRF rotation mean here? I mean, they both rotate out in about a year from now. We're going to be entering the summer lull soon and when we come out of it both sets will have about a half a year left in standard before rotation. In that time span (~6 months) both sets should begin their pre-rotation depreciation as a whole.
We have a standard PT coming up in April and I'm sure some cards will spike but I'm hesitant to blindly invest because it's "such good value". This is just uncharted territory and I don't feel comfortable using historical trends as a benchmark. For instance, I'd normally be gearing up to go deep on KTK/FRF during the summer but because of the early rotation I'm going to largely pass.
I'm liking temporal tresspass personally. It's very low risk at $2, and I'm excited to see decks featuring it and the new narset (and maybe even the khans one as well). Will it pan out? Maybe, maybe not, but at $2/ea, I'm not out a ton of cash if nothing comes of it and they're easy to get as throw ins in trades.
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FRF as a set will go down. The few good cards in Born of the Gods (Courser, Brimaz and at the time Kiora) fell a good deal after JiN landed.
That's not to say that every individual card will drop, but I would be surprised to see complete sets remain above 55 tickets in the medium term. I expect most of the losses to come from money mythics.
Rubbish mythics (Temporal Trespass, Ghastly Conscription) *might* rise if the set becomes more lucrative to redeem.
I thought for a while about going deep on some KTK rares and mythics but I just don't feel very safe doing so. Sure, a couple of cards will spike in the future but when exactly is that going to happen? If you have thousands of spare tickets then this might be a safe way to make some money. If not, then it just ties up tickets for basically ever.
Generally, I would stay away from KTK rares and this includes fetches. This set was opened so massively that the supply is through the roof. Especially fetches do not seem to be a great spec target. First of all, if the ZEN feteches are reprinted, the price will be surpressed. Secondly, look at the prices of the shocklands.
My advice is to keep your eyes wide open for potential KTK mythics that suddenly become a big role player. There is definitely some money to make here. The best spec target obviously is "See the Unwritten". If some big beaters get spoiled for Battle for Zendikar, then just the speculation will make this card go through the roof.
As for the FRF cards mentioned in the OP: stay away. Personally, I believe that FRF will be opened more heavily than it was until now. I think prices will go down for a while, at least until MM2015 releases.
Please not that all this is just my personal opinion.
EDIT: Also note that usually the right point in time to pick up cards is during release events. People dump cards to get some tix to enter those events which surpresses prices. See Goblin Rabblemaster during FRF release if you want an example.
Agreed that the first week of DTK prerelease on MODO is the best time to pick up staples - everyone wants tix for the events. KTK is so low already I can't see the KTK block playables dropping a huge amount, tho... or can they? 65 tix is way low for a set with fetchlands.
I'm guessing Legacy's lack of popularity on MODO hurts fetches as well, but it's hard to say. Again there can only be so much value in a set.
FRF does seem to be the more "powerful" of the set. The rares are definitely more powerful than KTK (Tasigur, Mastery, Outpost, Crux of Fate, etc).
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Fetchlands in the set seem to lower the ceiling on KTK Mythics for some reason - I don't know exactly why, but there must be some correlation to due to there only be room for a certain amount of value in a set.
FRF has seem decent spec potential as well being a short lifespan small set that is only ever opened as 1-of in draft.
Either way, what are your buy/sell/hold thoughts for the next few weeks?
KTK Fetches - Seems like a buy or hold @ 2 to 4.5 tix. They still will be opened to a small degree in DTK-DTK-FRF, but they seem like a safe investment.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon - Seems like a buy @ 11 tix. This card is powerful, flashy, and probably is close to its floor. We could see more ramp strategies with possible Eldrazi coming in the next block. The promo version hurts it potential a bit.
Monastery Mentor - Sell @ 14/15 tix. This card seems to spike after Vintage Super League nights - it's pretty weak in current Standard and sees no Modern play, so not sure how it's become the most expensive card in FRF, but I don't think that sticks.
Siege Rhino - Buy @ 2 tix. Standard staple and no reason why this shouldn't rise.
Dig Through Time - Buy @ 2 tix. Control renaissance could be coming with DTK's release.
See the Unwritten - Buy @ 2.5 tix. This card is already rising due to speculation with Return to Zendikar (Eldrazi) - there is definitely still room to grow.
Jeskai Ascendancy - Engine card still only .5 tix. It's a deck on it's own that is currently T2 ish in Standard. Could be improved with DTK cards like Anticipate.
What cards are you looking to buy or dump?
My question is, what does the early KTK/FRF rotation mean here? I mean, they both rotate out in about a year from now. We're going to be entering the summer lull soon and when we come out of it both sets will have about a half a year left in standard before rotation. In that time span (~6 months) both sets should begin their pre-rotation depreciation as a whole.
We have a standard PT coming up in April and I'm sure some cards will spike but I'm hesitant to blindly invest because it's "such good value". This is just uncharted territory and I don't feel comfortable using historical trends as a benchmark. For instance, I'd normally be gearing up to go deep on KTK/FRF during the summer but because of the early rotation I'm going to largely pass.
Wow - I can't say he doesn't have the right idea tho - any of the KTK mythics could spike over the next year and he could end up in great shape.
I still think the fetches soak up a lot of set value tho as far as KTK goes, but 65 tix is way too low for a total set price. It's going to rise...
EDH: Grand Arbiter $tax, Freyalise Stompy, Mimeoplasm Death From the Grave
That's not to say that every individual card will drop, but I would be surprised to see complete sets remain above 55 tickets in the medium term. I expect most of the losses to come from money mythics.
Rubbish mythics (Temporal Trespass, Ghastly Conscription) *might* rise if the set becomes more lucrative to redeem.
Agreed that the first week of DTK prerelease on MODO is the best time to pick up staples - everyone wants tix for the events. KTK is so low already I can't see the KTK block playables dropping a huge amount, tho... or can they? 65 tix is way low for a set with fetchlands.
I'm guessing Legacy's lack of popularity on MODO hurts fetches as well, but it's hard to say. Again there can only be so much value in a set.
FRF does seem to be the more "powerful" of the set. The rares are definitely more powerful than KTK (Tasigur, Mastery, Outpost, Crux of Fate, etc).