Yeah, I'm really curious about Mentor too. I don't pay much attention to Standard tournament results. I've seen some people around the forum say it's underperforming and just not as good as everyone thought it would be. Then I have a friend who is swearing it's the next Gofy and I'd better get it now because it's a flat-out game winner that'll be a multi-format all star and it'll never be any cheaper.
your friend has just no idea sorry.
he is not even good enough to put up much results in standard. he is in some decks, and most people who play him, say that he is really worse than they thought.
he is just not good enough to see ANY play at all in modern and legacy. at least not in competetive decks. he will drop to under 5$ once he rotates. but will hold some value since he sees some standard play and is from a small set, while he is in standard.
Yeah, I'm really curious about Mentor too. I don't pay much attention to Standard tournament results. I've seen some people around the forum say it's underperforming and just not as good as everyone thought it would be. Then I have a friend who is swearing it's the next Gofy and I'd better get it now because it's a flat-out game winner that'll be a multi-format all star and it'll never be any cheaper.
your friend has just no idea sorry.
he is not even good enough to put up much results in standard. he is in some decks, and most people who play him, say that he is really worse than they thought.
he is just not good enough to see ANY play at all in modern and legacy. at least not in competetive decks. he will drop to under 5$ once he rotates. but will hold some value since he sees some standard play and is from a small set, while he is in standard.
the next goyf lol...
I don't know a lot about Vintage, but in the Vintage Super League Steve Menedian, who seems to be the most knowledgeable about the format of the group, was playing Monastery Mentors in his deck, so that tells me it may be at least viable in Vintage, and I wouldn't underestimate it for other formats either. It may not be the next Tarmogoyf, but that doesn't mean it's not a very powerful card.
Suddenly everyone on Pucatrade wants Crucible of the Spirit Dragon. I assume this is because DTK is clearly chock full of dragons, but am I missing something? Even if there are a zillion playable dragons in standard, isn't this card objectively awful? It essentially costs two mana to produce each storage counter, and then another to spend them. If you drop this on turn 2, the best you can hope for is:
T2 - tap 2 lands, create a storage counter
T3 - tap 2 lands, create a storage counter
T4 - tap 2 lands, create a storage counter
T5 - tap crucible + 4 other lands, play a 7 drop for a total mana investment of 11 mana.
This seems especially bad in an environment where morph is already present for people who want to spread the cost of playing a fatty across multiple turns. Am I missing something that makes this card not terrible, or is this just bad speculation based on nothing but "OMG DRAGONZ!!!!"?
TL;DR version: Even with lots of dragons in DTK, is Crucible a good spec target or is it terrible and forever destined for bulk prices?
I don't think you are wrong, but would point out that in a ramp deck, like one that plays Frontier Siege, there is often times a spare mana or two kicking around and being able to store it for later use could be a good thing.
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Basically, I've just been wondering whether I should try to pick up Monastery Mentors and Ugins now or wait. I can't afford to buy them right now, but I have a few cards I can barter towards them. Unfortunately they're expensive modern cards so I'd hate to trade them off for Ugins and Mentors then watch them tank to $10-$15.
Basically, I've just been wondering whether I should try to pick up Monastery Mentors and Ugins now or wait. I can't afford to buy them right now, but I have a few cards I can barter towards them. Unfortunately they're expensive modern cards so I'd hate to trade them off for Ugins and Mentors then watch them tank to $10-$15.
Well, that's two questions. Personally, I'd wait to trade for Ugins and Mentors. Ugin will probably not go down too much, since his real home is probably EDH, but pretty much everything drops on rotation. Mentor is making a showing in Vintage, but it's definitely a Standard card primarily. The thing is, both of these cards will be opened for another few months, since FRF is going to be co-drafted with DTK. Now is the time to pick up KTK staples before they stop being opened (so you can use them before they rotate out of standard). Ugin and Mentor aren't going to go up significantly while FRF is being opened; they're already pretty high.
You should also check your expensive modern cards for reprint chances. There are definitely some cards that you'll want to move before Modern Masters 2015 comes out and crashes them, but that's for another thread.
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I have not lost to either of those cards. Ever. I have not even had anyone play an Ugin on me. I have had people show me an ugin in their hand after they lose and I have seen other people cast Ugin to good effect, but I'm playing aggro this standard and I have not had an issue with either of these cards. I would not pay $30 for a card that people can play around quite easily. I still think they're going to tank.
Basically, I've just been wondering whether I should try to pick up Monastery Mentors and Ugins now or wait. I can't afford to buy them right now, but I have a few cards I can barter towards them. Unfortunately they're expensive modern cards so I'd hate to trade them off for Ugins and Mentors then watch them tank to $10-$15.
Well, that's two questions. Personally, I'd wait to trade for Ugins and Mentors. Ugin will probably not go down too much, since his real home is probably EDH, but pretty much everything drops on rotation. Mentor is making a showing in Vintage, but it's definitely a Standard card primarily. The thing is, both of these cards will be opened for another few months, since FRF is going to be co-drafted with DTK. Now is the time to pick up KTK staples before they stop being opened (so you can use them before they rotate out of standard). Ugin and Mentor aren't going to go up significantly while FRF is being opened; they're already pretty high.
You should also check your expensive modern cards for reprint chances. There are definitely some cards that you'll want to move before Modern Masters 2015 comes out and crashes them, but that's for another thread.
Yeah, Ugin seems way over-priced for me due to the fact that he's not a 4-of. I'm just getting antsy because he's the most hyped mythic in the middle set (which, as usual, doesn't have much going for it outside of a few expensive mythics) and I need one for a Standard deck, one for an EDH deck and one for my collection.
Yeah, Ugin seems way over-priced for me due to the fact that he's not a 4-of. I'm just getting antsy because he's the most hyped mythic in the middle set (which, as usual, doesn't have much going for it outside of a few expensive mythics) and I need one for a Standard deck, one for an EDH deck and one for my collection.
If you are in a position where you worry about potentially losing $45 of value on a game I honestly don't think you should be spending money on cards. It's sort of one of those "If you can't afford to lose, don't play" things. Keep in mind though that you said you NEED 3 copies... NEED.
Yeah, Ugin seems way over-priced for me due to the fact that he's not a 4-of. I'm just getting antsy because he's the most hyped mythic in the middle set (which, as usual, doesn't have much going for it outside of a few expensive mythics) and I need one for a Standard deck, one for an EDH deck and one for my collection.
If you are in a position where you worry about potentially losing $45 of value on a game I honestly don't think you should be spending money on cards. It's sort of one of those "If you can't afford to lose, don't play" things. Keep in mind though that you said you NEED 3 copies... NEED.
Just buy the stupid things and see what happens.
I don't spend much money on cards at all, honestly. . I definitely can't afford to be buying $30 cards. I get most of my stuff through trading old cards I've hoarded (and by hoarded I don't mean speculative buying) over the years that have grown expensive. That's why I have to be very careful about what I trade off and what I get in exchange for it. That's why I just wanted to see people's opinions on where the price of cards like Ugin and Mentor were going. I don't pay much attention to how cards are performing and how well they're moving but I know a lot of people around here do.
I think the thing is when you use words like "antsy" and "need" it doesn't sound like you are approaching this in the right way. Maybe: "I'd like to acquire a few copies of Ugin for use in decks, but it is an 'expensive' card for me so I'd like to get some opinions about its short and long term value before making a decision about acquiring it immediately." I had a similar reaction to that of Galspanic: no one "needs" three copies of the card for two decks and a binder, get one, switch it out between to the two decks and don't get worked up about it.
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I think the thing is when you use words like "antsy" and "need" it doesn't sound like you are approaching this in the right way. Maybe: "I'd like to acquire a few copies of Ugin for use in decks, but it is an 'expensive' card for me so I'd like to get some opinions about its short and long term value before making a decision about acquiring it immediately." I had a similar reaction to that of Galspanic: no one "needs" three copies of the card for two decks and a binder, get one, switch it out between to the two decks and don't get worked up about it.
He said need not because he needs it in the same way people need food, water, or warmth. He said need because that is what people say when they mean "I mean to acquire this". Tomorrow, I remember I need to go to the store because I need grapefruit. I don't need it in the same way that plants need sunlight. I need it in the way that I expect the person listening to me isn't stupid and going to make a big deal of my choice of words.
He meant he wanted 3 copies.
"Yeah, Ugin seems way over-priced for me due to the fact that he's not a 4-of. I'm just getting annoyed because he's the most hyped mythic in the middle set (which, as usual, doesn't have much going for it outside of a few expensive mythics) and by now they'd usually have dropped more. I also would have liked to try it for our once a month games night in two weeks and I thought he'd be cheaper by now. I wanted one for a Standard deck, one for an EDH deck and one for my collection."
This is totally a possible scenario in the above setting. This is not unreasonable, and this is a reasonable thing for people to expect when reading his post.
"ugin is expensive, i need ugin, give me your ugin i will snipped for ugin"
Is closer to what you seem to suggest is going on, which I think says more about you than about him.
I think the thing is when you use words like "antsy" and "need" it doesn't sound like you are approaching this in the right way. Maybe: "I'd like to acquire a few copies of Ugin for use in decks, but it is an 'expensive' card for me so I'd like to get some opinions about its short and long term value before making a decision about acquiring it immediately." I had a similar reaction to that of Galspanic: no one "needs" three copies of the card for two decks and a binder, get one, switch it out between to the two decks and don't get worked up about it.
He said need not because he needs it in the same way people need food, water, or warmth. He said need because that is what people say when they mean "I mean to acquire this".
This guy gets it! Thank you.
I didn't mean to turn this into some kind of argument, though. Carry on!
Mastery of the Unseen is now officially not a junk rare. That card is now quite seen, but will this mastery stay or will the deck creak now people will know about it? The set is still moving around so I would not say prices are settled yet.
Since I went and updated Modern Masters 1, I figured I would go ahead and update the standard sets as well, in this case prices will be at the lower end of tcgplayer prices, future updates may include ebay as well, but for now I'm just going to use tcgplayer for this round of standard price updates.
Top valued Rares/Mythics:
Ugin the Spirit Dragon: $29
Monastery Mentor: $16
Whisperwood Elemental: $13
Soulfire Grandmaster: $11
Tasigur the Golden Fang: $6.50
Shaman of the Great Hunt: $6
Brutal Hordechief: $5
Warden of the First Tree: $3.50
Outpost Siege: $3
Crux of Fate: $2.50
Mastery of the Unseen: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Singles Complete Set value:
Mythics: $87
Rares: $23
Uncommon/Common set: $6
Total singles set value: $116
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $8.70/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $39
Rares: .66/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $21
Uncommon/common sets: $6/set x 1.8 sets/box = $11
Foils: $4
Fetchlands: I'm going to guess 1.5/box: $15 (adjusted downward after updating khans by a few dollars)
Overall Average Box value: $90
Well, not a whole lot of positive to say about this set, basically its a very mythic top heavy set, and the rare value for the set is well ... aweful, a .66 per rare average is just terrible. To be honest, the only thing keeping the box value for this set at anything decent is the bonus fetchlands (funny how that works). Anyhow, at a $90 average box value its not terrible, but given that unless you get a couple of the top mythics and preferably a couple of fetchlands too, your box is basically bad, its not something I would much bother with, unless you enjoy lottery tickets :p. Anyhow, enjoy the update, will see about posting another soon.
Wasn't that basically the same for Dragon's Maze - the other set that had bonus lands in it? I mean, for a great deal of its time in Standard, that set had Voice of Resurgence, Blood Baron, Ral Zarek, and basically nothing else of merit. Thankfully, I think we all agree that Fate Reforged isn't nearly that bad since it has multiple playable rares and Mythics - Tasigur has proven its viability in Modern/Legacy for one, and there are some other widely played rares.
With that said, I can only see prices on FRF cards going down because of the fetchlands and because FRF will be drafted twice as much as DGM was - FRF being drafted as FKK and as DDF means packs will be opened for roughly six months instead of three, and fetchlands in the packs will ensure that people continue to want to crack packs at a higher clip than they would in their absence, meaning that prices on the actual FRF cards will have to go down that much lower to compensate.
In short, I expect pretty much every card in FRF except for maybe Ugin to take a 20-30% haircut in the next couple of months. Thankfully, the set isn't just an Ugin lottery, but if it does become that, expect prices to crash utterly. I think that's less likely because you can't jam 4 copies of an 8 drop in really any deck except maybe Modern Tron, and even then, Karn being 7 instead of 8 is something of a big deal as well.
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Overrall drop aside from Whisperwood which is coming to grow. Will this manifest as the second most expensive card in the set or will the Monks school this plant?
My two cents: Whisperwood will overtake Mentor in the short term because Whisper does better in the current Standard environment. Mentor is the long-term pick to retain a price around $15 due to playability in Legacy and Vintage.
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your friend has just no idea sorry.
he is not even good enough to put up much results in standard. he is in some decks, and most people who play him, say that he is really worse than they thought.
he is just not good enough to see ANY play at all in modern and legacy. at least not in competetive decks. he will drop to under 5$ once he rotates. but will hold some value since he sees some standard play and is from a small set, while he is in standard.
the next goyf lol...
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Well, that's two questions. Personally, I'd wait to trade for Ugins and Mentors. Ugin will probably not go down too much, since his real home is probably EDH, but pretty much everything drops on rotation. Mentor is making a showing in Vintage, but it's definitely a Standard card primarily. The thing is, both of these cards will be opened for another few months, since FRF is going to be co-drafted with DTK. Now is the time to pick up KTK staples before they stop being opened (so you can use them before they rotate out of standard). Ugin and Mentor aren't going to go up significantly while FRF is being opened; they're already pretty high.
You should also check your expensive modern cards for reprint chances. There are definitely some cards that you'll want to move before Modern Masters 2015 comes out and crashes them, but that's for another thread.
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Just buy the stupid things and see what happens.
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I don't spend much money on cards at all, honestly. . I definitely can't afford to be buying $30 cards. I get most of my stuff through trading old cards I've hoarded (and by hoarded I don't mean speculative buying) over the years that have grown expensive. That's why I have to be very careful about what I trade off and what I get in exchange for it. That's why I just wanted to see people's opinions on where the price of cards like Ugin and Mentor were going. I don't pay much attention to how cards are performing and how well they're moving but I know a lot of people around here do.
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He said need not because he needs it in the same way people need food, water, or warmth. He said need because that is what people say when they mean "I mean to acquire this". Tomorrow, I remember I need to go to the store because I need grapefruit. I don't need it in the same way that plants need sunlight. I need it in the way that I expect the person listening to me isn't stupid and going to make a big deal of my choice of words.
He meant he wanted 3 copies.
"Yeah, Ugin seems way over-priced for me due to the fact that he's not a 4-of. I'm just getting annoyed because he's the most hyped mythic in the middle set (which, as usual, doesn't have much going for it outside of a few expensive mythics) and by now they'd usually have dropped more. I also would have liked to try it for our once a month games night in two weeks and I thought he'd be cheaper by now. I wanted one for a Standard deck, one for an EDH deck and one for my collection."
This is totally a possible scenario in the above setting. This is not unreasonable, and this is a reasonable thing for people to expect when reading his post.
"ugin is expensive, i need ugin, give me your ugin i will snipped for ugin"
Is closer to what you seem to suggest is going on, which I think says more about you than about him.
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This guy gets it! Thank you.
I didn't mean to turn this into some kind of argument, though. Carry on!
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Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 34.99 (-0.11)
Monastery Mentor 22.51 (-0.59)
Soulfire Grand Master 13.49 (+0.10)
Whisperwood Elemental 13.49 (+1.86)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 8.77 (-0.35)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 8.25 (+0.14)
Brutal Hordechief 6.49 (-0.17)
Warden of the First Tree 5.45 (-0.12)
Mastery of the Unseen 4.99 (0.00)
Outpost Siege 4.26 (+0.76)
Crux of Fate 4.16 (-0.20)
Torrent Elemental 3.32 (-0.55)
Flamewake Phoenix 2.20 (-0.15)
Frontier Siege 2.05 (-0.25)
Temporal Trespass 1.90 (-0.09)
Valorous Stance 1.72 (+0.11)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.39 (0.00)
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death 1.25 (-0.12)
Mastery of the Unseen is now officially not a junk rare. That card is now quite seen, but will this mastery stay or will the deck creak now people will know about it? The set is still moving around so I would not say prices are settled yet.
Top valued Rares/Mythics:
Ugin the Spirit Dragon: $29
Monastery Mentor: $16
Whisperwood Elemental: $13
Soulfire Grandmaster: $11
Tasigur the Golden Fang: $6.50
Shaman of the Great Hunt: $6
Brutal Hordechief: $5
Warden of the First Tree: $3.50
Outpost Siege: $3
Crux of Fate: $2.50
Mastery of the Unseen: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Singles Complete Set value:
Mythics: $87
Rares: $23
Uncommon/Common set: $6
Total singles set value: $116
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $8.70/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $39
Rares: .66/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $21
Uncommon/common sets: $6/set x 1.8 sets/box = $11
Foils: $4
Fetchlands: I'm going to guess 1.5/box: $15 (adjusted downward after updating khans by a few dollars)
Overall Average Box value: $90
Well, not a whole lot of positive to say about this set, basically its a very mythic top heavy set, and the rare value for the set is well ... aweful, a .66 per rare average is just terrible. To be honest, the only thing keeping the box value for this set at anything decent is the bonus fetchlands (funny how that works). Anyhow, at a $90 average box value its not terrible, but given that unless you get a couple of the top mythics and preferably a couple of fetchlands too, your box is basically bad, its not something I would much bother with, unless you enjoy lottery tickets :p. Anyhow, enjoy the update, will see about posting another soon.
With that said, I can only see prices on FRF cards going down because of the fetchlands and because FRF will be drafted twice as much as DGM was - FRF being drafted as FKK and as DDF means packs will be opened for roughly six months instead of three, and fetchlands in the packs will ensure that people continue to want to crack packs at a higher clip than they would in their absence, meaning that prices on the actual FRF cards will have to go down that much lower to compensate.
In short, I expect pretty much every card in FRF except for maybe Ugin to take a 20-30% haircut in the next couple of months. Thankfully, the set isn't just an Ugin lottery, but if it does become that, expect prices to crash utterly. I think that's less likely because you can't jam 4 copies of an 8 drop in really any deck except maybe Modern Tron, and even then, Karn being 7 instead of 8 is something of a big deal as well.
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Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
Fate Reforged 16-Mar
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 33.88 (-1.11)
Monastery Mentor 21.06 (-1.45)
Whisperwood Elemental 14.90 (+1.41)
Soulfire Grand Master 13.62 (+0.13)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 8.49 (-0.28)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 8.03 (-0.22)
Brutal Hordechief 6.27 (-0.22)
Warden of the First Tree 5.20 (-0.25)
Outpost Siege 4.20 (-0.06)
Crux of Fate 3.99 (-0.17)
Mastery of the Unseen 3.94 (+.05)
Torrent Elemental 3.09 (-0.23)
Flamewake Phoenix 2.02 (-0.18)
Frontier Siege 1.93 (-0.12)
Valorous Stance 1.88 (+0.16)
Temporal Trespass 1.80 (-0.10)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.37 (-0.02)
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death 1.16 (-0.09)
Overrall drop aside from Whisperwood which is coming to grow. Will this manifest as the second most expensive card in the set or will the Monks school this plant?