The SCG open is legacy this week so I'm not expecting any big moves. Next week is the PT which means another week of no standard. After that the schedule heats up.
It seems like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is more popular than Monastery Mentor just on raw power level which is making Frontier Siege playable so you're not dead before you drop him out. To me these 2 cards look linked.
Nice observation Aeither7.
I see Frontier Siege is still available for two bucks. Wonder if that will keep up. It's "only" rare but this set isn't being mass opened as far as I can tell. I still see it as a playset of mana elves in one card. The right deck can abuse it quite abundantly! It's a lot like Skyshroud Claim.
Still doesn't mean Ugin is unplayable. Sultai control can buy enough time to play him, perhaps not as a 4 of though.
I think the price is a little outrageous but he's colorless and a planeswalker the 2 things that seem to send fan boys (and fan girls) crazy.
I've never even seen somebody playing a Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, on camera or in person, doesn't mean he isn't a $50 card. For some reason colorless is just the holy grail of magic card perceived value.
Still doesn't mean Ugin is unplayable. Sultai control can buy enough time to play him, perhaps not as a 4 of though.
I think the price is a little outrageous but he's colorless and a planeswalker the 2 things that seem to send fan boys (and fan girls) crazy.
I've never even seen somebody playing a Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, on camera or in person, doesn't mean he isn't a $50 card. For some reason colorless is just the holy grail of magic card perceived value.
Courless bombs are always attractive to players because they give them deck brewing ideas, and infinite versatility. Being dragon-esque doesn't hurt either. I wonder if he'll follow Karn Liberated's path and crash right when Khans block rotates, only to creep up even higher over time.
True, I noticed Tasigurs around $6 Friday, but now looks like $8 is the going price, eBay anyway.
I think Ugin will be able to maintain his price. It's justified by the massive casual appeal alone - so many decks dream of ramping into stuff like that. Dragon, legendary, mythic, epic, yadda yaddayadda. Which means the foil will only go up, too. There will be dips along the way but long term his price is headed up up up.
Nohing for Standard this weekend, but still time for the update. I removed CFB from my numbers. SCG and TCG mid are the prices I am using. Every over a dollar is listed. I am considering do foils, so let me know by liking this post if want me to do foils as well.
I was not expecting that quick of a response to me doing foils, so I went ahead with the foils. I went by SCG and TCG Mid. I set the minimum at double what I do for non foils. With that out of the way, here are the foils (not including promos or intro foils).
Whats the situation with Whisperwood Elemental... Is that the type of card you sell off ASAP or wait to find a decklist that it fits in well because it could theoretically become a house, especially if a new keyword or ability (or anything) shows up that somehow synergizes with it. I feel like based on the tier 1 standard decklists it doesn't seem to be all that big of a factor, yet.
Crux of Fate is crazy. I think most people are still having trouble evaluating it. As far as I'm aware, it functions as a Damnation for more, at worst. And there isn't any other black "destroy all creatures" as cheap as Crux, except Damnation (a $50 rare). I can see Crux being played heavily in Standard as well as in Casual (major $$$) and probably Modern etc. If it doesn't catch on in Standard (which would be strange to me... black would have to be unplayable) then it will dip below $4 but recover in the long term. At $5 now I think it's pretty cheap.
FR isn't being opened much. Box value has already dropped below $80. This could be a very underopened set and Crux could be in dire shortage in a year or two.
Switched threads because Crux is in FRF.
I play UW Heroic because I'm cheap and because as it turns out I'm an absolute gun at playing the deck. UB and Sultai control is gaining quite a bit of metagame share and all I do is I cast Stubborn Denial or Negate to get through Crux.
It's much less oppressive than Supreme Verdict and I'm happy it's not too hard to play around.
I do think it spoils the day for Abzan aggro which is why it's great. Not sure how good it will be with more dragons around as people are sure to diversify their threats if there are playable dragons in DTK. It might not be a good card for very long and End Hostilities will be the better wrath going forward.
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: 1, 21, 56)
Already not looking so good:
1) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (30) / /
2) Monastery Mentor (22) / /
3) Soulfire Grand Master (14) / /
4) Tasigur the Golden Fang (8) / /
5) Shaman of the Great Hunt (7.5) / /
6) Brutal Hordechief (7) / /
7) Whisperwood Elemental (6) / /
8) Crux of Fate (5.5) / /
9) Warden of the First Tree (5.5) / /
10) Torrent Elemental (3.5) / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover.(#)is price in USD incl. shipping here.
There are now just 10 cards worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Temporal Trespass and Frontier Siege fall off it.
Ugin is the bright spot on the tally, being both #1 as well as the only card not dropping in price. And that's a very scary prospect, because it's the kind of pattern that leads to set valuations seen in Dragon's Maze. It's been called the Saviors Syndrome (for those who remember, when it came out there were only 2 playable cards in Saviors of Kamigawa, and both went to $20 while the rest of the set collapsed). We can hope that it won't happen here, and playable cards like Soulfire, Shaman, Tasigur, Crux, Hordechief, and maybe Warden should help us avoid that. Having value spread over a handful of cards instead of just a couple might save us from going to a tally that has Ugin on top with almost nothing of value below it. We're already down to 10 cards worth opening, though, and the set's Expected Box Value has plummeted from $110 to $75ish in just a couple weeks. It's already below the cost even the biggest dealers can get boxes for, meaning very few people are going to be opening FR product for singles. Long term, that can be good for prices (because supply is so low), but in the meantime it could mean prices are stagnant or poor for months or years.
Thinking back on Dragon's Maze, we had Voice at $30ish, Ral Zarek at $22, and the rest of the tally scattered between $3 and $10:
1) Voice of Resurgence (29)
2) Ral Zarek (22)
3) Blood Baron of Vizkopa (10)
4) Legion's Initiative (9)
5) Deadbridge Chant (8)
6) Gaze of Granite (7)
7) Advent of the Wurm (6.5)
8) Master of Cruelties (6.5)
9) Blood Scrivener (6)
10) Savageborn Hydra (6)
11) Skylasher (6)
12) Progenitor Mimic (5.5)
13) Aetherling (5)
14) Council of the Absolute (5)
15) Sire of Insanity (5)
16) Varolz the Scar-Striped (5)
17) Beck // Call (4.5)
18) Notion Thief (4)
19) Obzedat's Aid (4)
20) Plasm Capture (4)
21) Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch (3)
There are plenty of really powerful, fun, and playable cards in Dragon's Maze! Mythics, but also plenty of rares - just like in FR. Box value was $115 (exactly where FR was last week). But it wasn't all that long before box value fell from $14 (yes, it has lost $101) and the tally looked like this:
1) Voice of Resurgence (17)
2) Ral Zarek (6)
That's the entire tally - only two cards in DM are worth $3, and an entire box of booster packs is only worth $14. Is the set full of crap? Nope. Was it opened en masse? Nope. Exactly how and why this happens is still up for debate. We do know that when buying a set's booster packs becomes a lottery (it has only a few cards that buyer wants to see), value shifts dramatically toward those cards and away from everything else, until ONLY those cards are worth opening - even if the other cards are quite well designed and completely playable. All I'm saying is it has happened before and will probably happen again. FR is showing early signs of Saviors Syndrome. We'll keep an eye on things by watching the value of good-but-not-chase cards over the next while. Alesha is a great card, high in power level, and interesting for deck-builders. It has gone from $3 to $1 in the past week, along with many other cards that looked as though they were about to break above the $3 level. We've already gone from a 15 card tally to a 10 card tally. Box value has fallen from $115 to about $75. And indeed, the chase cards (in this case, Monastery Mentor and Ugin) are holding up while the rest slides.
Fingers are crossed - nobody (sellers, players, dealers, Wizards) wins when opening a set's product becomes a lottery.
Next update in a few days.
As for the question about Whisperwood Elemental, I've asked that question myself here in the thread a couple times. Nobody really had an answer that explained to me why the card is worth more than a buck. Definitely could be this set's Legion's Initiative, which also started out at $9. Didn't take long for it to go under a buck.
@ whisperwood - it seems like there's a "first mythics syndrome" in every contemporary set, where an interesting, though frequently build-around-only, mythic is previewed early in the spoiler season, and a ton of price inertia persists inexplicably. Havengul lich and sigarda are the two most salient examples for me, that just refused to cool months after release. The only explanation I can think of is that these cards get spoiled early, lots of money pours into preorders for lack of other options, retailers like SSG and CSI don't adjust the preorder prices down until the set's release, and all of the sudden you have a lot of people paying $5+ for a preorder that they're then loath to let go for less than they paid. Probably an over simplification.
I do not see FRF as having the same problem as Dragon's Maze at all. Look at the list RE posted on the DGM cards at this point:
1) Voice of Resurgence (29)
2) Ral Zarek (22)
3) Blood Baron of Vizkopa (10)
4) Legion's Initiative (9)
5) Deadbridge Chant (8)
6) Gaze of Granite (7)
7) Advent of the Wurm (6.5)
8) Master of Cruelties (6.5)
9) Blood Scrivener (6)
10) Savageborn Hydra (6)
11) Skylasher (6)
12) Progenitor Mimic (5.5)
13) Aetherling (5)
14) Council of the Absolute (5)
15) Sire of Insanity (5)
16) Varolz the Scar-Striped (5)
17) Beck // Call (4.5)
18) Notion Thief (4)
19) Obzedat's Aid (4)
20) Plasm Capture (4)
21) Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch (3)
How many of those were actually played? Aetherling, as a 1 of, voice of resurgence, blood baron, and advent of the wurm. The rest of those cards saw basically no play, and the set plummeted fast. For FRF, a LOT of the mythics are seeing play, so I do not see them falling much more if at all. Every card currently on the FRF list is seeing standard play.
Per the new system for Running Tally threads, this thread has been locked. For additional discussion on the Running Tally of Fate Reforged, please visit this thread here.
It seems like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is more popular than Monastery Mentor just on raw power level which is making Frontier Siege playable so you're not dead before you drop him out. To me these 2 cards look linked.
I see Frontier Siege is still available for two bucks. Wonder if that will keep up. It's "only" rare but this set isn't being mass opened as far as I can tell. I still see it as a playset of mana elves in one card. The right deck can abuse it quite abundantly! It's a lot like Skyshroud Claim.
Abzan aggro is already one of the best decks and because it doesn't play Courser of Kruphix it can easily play enchantment hate.
Erase and Destructive Revelry are also popular sideboard options.
Still doesn't mean Ugin is unplayable. Sultai control can buy enough time to play him, perhaps not as a 4 of though.
I think the price is a little outrageous but he's colorless and a planeswalker the 2 things that seem to send fan boys (and fan girls) crazy.
I've never even seen somebody playing a Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, on camera or in person, doesn't mean he isn't a $50 card. For some reason colorless is just the holy grail of magic card perceived value.
Courless bombs are always attractive to players because they give them deck brewing ideas, and infinite versatility. Being dragon-esque doesn't hurt either. I wonder if he'll follow Karn Liberated's path and crash right when Khans block rotates, only to creep up even higher over time.
GWU Bant Manifest - The Future Is Here. Or it will be at the end of turn. GWU
I think Ugin will be able to maintain his price. It's justified by the massive casual appeal alone - so many decks dream of ramping into stuff like that. Dragon, legendary, mythic, epic, yadda yaddayadda. Which means the foil will only go up, too. There will be dips along the way but long term his price is headed up up up.
Is that why you cancelled orders on them?
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 32.79
Monastery Mentor 25.58
Soulfire Grand Master 15.97
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 9.99
Whisperwood Elemental 8.39
Shaman of the Great Hunt 7.96
Brutal Hordechief 7.78
Warden of the First Tree 6.49
Crux of Fate 5.49
Torrent Elemental 4.52
Flamewake Phoenix 3.62
Frontier Siege 3.22
Temporal Trespass 2.99
Monastery Siege 1.81
Mardu Strike Leader 1.65
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death 1.66
Ghastly Conscription 1.23
Soulflayer 1.5
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.4
Yasova Dragonclaw 1.38
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury 1.35
Valorous Stance 1.27
Reality Shift 1.08
It appears we are seeing the classic downward shift as cards are finding their homes (or lack of). Ugin is still mainlining his price.
Monastery Mentor 26.29 24.87 25.58
Soulfire Grand Master 16.99 15.94 15.97
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 9.99 9.99 9.99
Whisperwood Elemental 8.69 8.08 8.39
Shaman of the Great Hunt 8.15 7.77 7.96
Brutal Hordechief 7.99 7.57 7.78
Warden of the First Tree 6.69 6.29 6.49
Crux of Fate 5.49 5.49 5.49
Torrent Elemental 4.69 4.35 4.52
Flamewake Phoenix 3.79 3.44 3.62
Frontier Siege 3.25 3.18 3.22
Temporal Trespass 2.99 2.99 2.99
Monastery Siege 1.99 1.62 1.81
Mardu Strike Leader 1.69 1.6 1.65
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death 1.49 1.83 1.66
Ghastly Conscription 1.49 0.97 1.23
Soulflayer 1.49 1.51 1.5
Yasova Dragonclaw 1.49 1.26 1.38
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.35 1.41 1.4
Valorous Stance 1.29 1.25 1.27
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury 1.19 1.51 1.35
Reality Shift 1.15 1 1.08
Foils
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 81.41
Monastery Mentor 57.79
Soulfire Grand Master 51.55
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 28.99
Temporal Trespass 19.97
Brutal Hordechief 18.86
Whisperwood Elemental 18.44
Warden of the First Tree 17.80
Shaman of the Great Hunt 17.60
Crux of Fate 14.00
Torrent Elemental 12.00
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death 8.99
Flamewake Phoenix 8.99
Reality Shift 8.45
Humble Defector 7.63
Monastery Siege 7.35
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 7.50
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury 6.35
Atarka, World Render 6.14
Frontier Siege 6.01
Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest 6.00
Dromoka, the Eternal 5.87
Soulflayer 5.75
Yasova Dragonclaw 5.74
Ghastly Conscription 4.99
Wildslash 4.84
Mardu Strike Leader 4.75
Ojutai, Soul of Winter 3.69
Shamanic Revelation 3.65
Valorous Stance 4.39
Outpost Siege 3.36
Crucible of the Spirit Dragon 3.31
Dark Deal 3.29
Wildcalling 3.15
Citadel Siege 3.07
Cloudform 3.06
Renowned Weaponsmith 3.01
Collateral Damage 3.00
Hero's Blade 2.98
Mardu Woe-Reaper 2.81
Destructor Dragon 2.74
Arcbound 2.65
Palace Siege 2.63
Mastery of the Unseen 2.54
Supplant Form 2.53
Archfiend of Depravity 2.34
Temur Sabertooth 2.18
Frost Walker 2.04
Arcbound 2.99 2.1
Archfiend of Depravity 1.99 2.69 2.34
Atarka, World Render 5.99 6.29 6.14
Brutal Hordechief 19.99 17.73 18.86
Citadel Siege 2.99 3.14 3.07
Cloudform 2.99 3.11 3.06
Collateral Damage 2.99 3 3
Crucible of the Spirit Dragon 2.99 3.63 3.31
Crux of Fate 14.99 12.98 14
Dark Deal 2.99 3.58 3.29
Destructor Dragon 2.99 2.49 2.74
Dromoka, the Eternal 5.99 5.75 5.87
Flamewake Phoenix 9.99 7.99 8.99
Frontier Siege 5.99 6.02 6.01
Frost Walker 1.99 2.09 2.04
Ghastly Conscription 4.99 4.99 4.99
Hero's Blade 2.99 2.97 2.98
Humble Defector 7.99 7.26 7.63
Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury 5.99 6.71 6.35
Mardu Strike Leader 4.99 4.5 4.75
Mardu Woe-Reaper 2.99 2.72 2.81
Mastery of the Unseen 2.99 2.08 2.54
Monastery Mentor 59.99 55.59 57.79
Monastery Siege 7.99 6.71 7.35
Ojutai, Soul of Winter 3.99 3.39 3.69
Outpost Siege 2.99 3.72 3.36
Palace Siege 2.99 2.26 2.63
Reality Shift 7.99 8.91 8.45
Renowned Weaponsmith 3.99 2.03 3.01
Shaman of the Great Hunt 19.99 15.2 17.6
Shamanic Revelation 3.99 3.31 3.65
Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest 5.99 6 6
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 7.99 7 7.5
Soulfire Grand Master 59.99 43.11 51.55
Soulflayer 5.99 5.51 5.75
Supplant Form 2.99 2.06 2.53
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 29.99 27.99 28.99
Temporal Trespass 19.99 19.95 19.97
Temur Sabertooth 1.99 2.37 2.18
Torrent Elemental 11.99 12 12
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 79.99 82.82 81.41
Valorous Stance 3.99 4.79 4.39
Warden of the First Tree 19.99 15.6 17.8
Whisperwood Elemental 14.99 21.89 18.44
Wildcalling 3.99 2.3 3.15
Wildslash 3.99 5.68 4.84
Yasova Dragonclaw 5.99 5.48 5.74
Switched threads because Crux is in FRF.
I play UW Heroic because I'm cheap and because as it turns out I'm an absolute gun at playing the deck. UB and Sultai control is gaining quite a bit of metagame share and all I do is I cast Stubborn Denial or Negate to get through Crux.
It's much less oppressive than Supreme Verdict and I'm happy it's not too hard to play around.
I do think it spoils the day for Abzan aggro which is why it's great. Not sure how good it will be with more dragons around as people are sure to diversify their threats if there are playable dragons in DTK. It might not be a good card for very long and End Hostilities will be the better wrath going forward.
Already not looking so good:
1) Ugin the Spirit Dragon (30)
2) Monastery Mentor (22)
3) Soulfire Grand Master (14)
4) Tasigur the Golden Fang (8)
5) Shaman of the Great Hunt (7.5)
6) Brutal Hordechief (7)
7) Whisperwood Elemental (6)
8) Crux of Fate (5.5)
9) Warden of the First Tree (5.5)
10) Torrent Elemental (3.5)
The card's most recent move is on right.
There are now just 10 cards worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Temporal Trespass and Frontier Siege fall off it.
Ugin is the bright spot on the tally, being both #1 as well as the only card not dropping in price. And that's a very scary prospect, because it's the kind of pattern that leads to set valuations seen in Dragon's Maze. It's been called the Saviors Syndrome (for those who remember, when it came out there were only 2 playable cards in Saviors of Kamigawa, and both went to $20 while the rest of the set collapsed). We can hope that it won't happen here, and playable cards like Soulfire, Shaman, Tasigur, Crux, Hordechief, and maybe Warden should help us avoid that. Having value spread over a handful of cards instead of just a couple might save us from going to a tally that has Ugin on top with almost nothing of value below it. We're already down to 10 cards worth opening, though, and the set's Expected Box Value has plummeted from $110 to $75ish in just a couple weeks. It's already below the cost even the biggest dealers can get boxes for, meaning very few people are going to be opening FR product for singles. Long term, that can be good for prices (because supply is so low), but in the meantime it could mean prices are stagnant or poor for months or years.
Thinking back on Dragon's Maze, we had Voice at $30ish, Ral Zarek at $22, and the rest of the tally scattered between $3 and $10:
1) Voice of Resurgence (29)
2) Ral Zarek (22)
3) Blood Baron of Vizkopa (10)
4) Legion's Initiative (9)
5) Deadbridge Chant (8)
6) Gaze of Granite (7)
7) Advent of the Wurm (6.5)
8) Master of Cruelties (6.5)
9) Blood Scrivener (6)
10) Savageborn Hydra (6)
11) Skylasher (6)
12) Progenitor Mimic (5.5)
13) Aetherling (5)
14) Council of the Absolute (5)
15) Sire of Insanity (5)
16) Varolz the Scar-Striped (5)
17) Beck // Call (4.5)
18) Notion Thief (4)
19) Obzedat's Aid (4)
20) Plasm Capture (4)
21) Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch (3)
There are plenty of really powerful, fun, and playable cards in Dragon's Maze! Mythics, but also plenty of rares - just like in FR. Box value was $115 (exactly where FR was last week). But it wasn't all that long before box value fell from $14 (yes, it has lost $101) and the tally looked like this:
1) Voice of Resurgence (17)
2) Ral Zarek (6)
That's the entire tally - only two cards in DM are worth $3, and an entire box of booster packs is only worth $14. Is the set full of crap? Nope. Was it opened en masse? Nope. Exactly how and why this happens is still up for debate. We do know that when buying a set's booster packs becomes a lottery (it has only a few cards that buyer wants to see), value shifts dramatically toward those cards and away from everything else, until ONLY those cards are worth opening - even if the other cards are quite well designed and completely playable. All I'm saying is it has happened before and will probably happen again. FR is showing early signs of Saviors Syndrome. We'll keep an eye on things by watching the value of good-but-not-chase cards over the next while. Alesha is a great card, high in power level, and interesting for deck-builders. It has gone from $3 to $1 in the past week, along with many other cards that looked as though they were about to break above the $3 level. We've already gone from a 15 card tally to a 10 card tally. Box value has fallen from $115 to about $75. And indeed, the chase cards (in this case, Monastery Mentor and Ugin) are holding up while the rest slides.
Fingers are crossed - nobody (sellers, players, dealers, Wizards) wins when opening a set's product becomes a lottery.
Next update in a few days.
As for the question about Whisperwood Elemental, I've asked that question myself here in the thread a couple times. Nobody really had an answer that explained to me why the card is worth more than a buck. Definitely could be this set's Legion's Initiative, which also started out at $9. Didn't take long for it to go under a buck.
/2 cents
"Personally I love high-riak, low-reqars gambles. Life's best with a decent amount of riak. And f*** reqars."
1) Voice of Resurgence (29)
2) Ral Zarek (22)
3) Blood Baron of Vizkopa (10)
4) Legion's Initiative (9)
5) Deadbridge Chant (8)
6) Gaze of Granite (7)
7) Advent of the Wurm (6.5)
8) Master of Cruelties (6.5)
9) Blood Scrivener (6)
10) Savageborn Hydra (6)
11) Skylasher (6)
12) Progenitor Mimic (5.5)
13) Aetherling (5)
14) Council of the Absolute (5)
15) Sire of Insanity (5)
16) Varolz the Scar-Striped (5)
17) Beck // Call (4.5)
18) Notion Thief (4)
19) Obzedat's Aid (4)
20) Plasm Capture (4)
21) Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch (3)
How many of those were actually played? Aetherling, as a 1 of, voice of resurgence, blood baron, and advent of the wurm. The rest of those cards saw basically no play, and the set plummeted fast. For FRF, a LOT of the mythics are seeing play, so I do not see them falling much more if at all. Every card currently on the FRF list is seeing standard play.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)