Welcome once again to the Running Tally thread, this time for Khans of Tarkir. The purpose of Running Tallies is to keep a visual record of prices and trends of singles in the set, to help players, traders, and dealers get more information and a better feel for what's going on in the market. I've been doing such threads for several years now, and learn a lot from it myself in the process. If you have similar data to post here, please do, especially if it's more than just a static price list. Please keep your comments on the topic of Magic 2015 (singles and overall set) prices and trends.
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: nil)
One of the most anticipated sets (and tallies) in a while:
1) Sarkhan the Dragonspeaker (36)
2) Sorin Solemn Visitor (23)
3) Flooded Strand (20)
4) Polluted Delta (20)
5) Windswept Heath (16)
6) Wooded Foothills (16)
7) Bloodstained Mire (15)
8) Clever Imposter (10)
9) Wingmate Roc (10)
10) Surrak Dragonclaw (7)
11) Mantis Rider (6)
12) Sidisi Brood Tyrant (6)
13) Utter End (6)
14) Bloodsoaked Champion (5.5)
15) Savage Knuckleblade (5.5)
16) Siege Rhino (5.5)
17) Anafenza the Foremost (5)
18) Ashcloud Phoenix (5)
19) Empty the Pits (5)
20) Butcher of the Horde (4.5)
21) Dig Through Time (4.5)
22) Rattleclaw Mystic (4.5)
23) End Hostilities (4)
24) Hooded Hydra (4)
25) Jeskai Ascendancy (4)
26) Crackling Doom (3.5)
27) Monastery Swiftspear (3)
28) Narset Enlightened Master (3)
29) See the Unwritten (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover.(#)is price in CND incl. shipping here.
A healthy 29 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack. Born and JiN each had 14, Theros began with 38, M15 with 20.
I'll save my individual card analysis and commentary for a later post. In general though, we have 2 mythic planeswalkers out front (not unusual), a cycle of high value rare lands next (also not unusual), then quite a gap all the way down to the miscellaneous rares and mythics in the single-digit price range. Some cards seem grossly undervalued to me, and then there are some that I can't believe are even ON the tally in the first place - like Narset Enlightened Master, Anafenza the Foremost, and Savage Knuckleblade. I keep hearing "4/4 for three mana is really strong even WITHOUT any abilities!" but those people must have forgotten about Leatherback Baloth. Yes, with all the mana fixing out there, many decks can come up with 3 specific mana on turn 3 (or even 2). But monogreen has no trouble pumping out this 4/5 for three, and yet the card has never impacted the tournament scene. 4/4 for GUR is NOT strong without abilities, it's weak. The abilities had better be amazing, to redeem the card overall! In the case of Knuckleblade they're just okay, as far as I can see. Being able to return to hand, and then come back probably with haste, is great. In decks that can come up with the mana cost, he'll see play as a 3-of or so. But not many decks fit that description. I see the price coming down once the GUR players out there have their copies. I'm reminded of Reaper of the Wilds.
Nice to see Monastery Swiftspear (uncommon) on the tally. It may not stay there, as the set gets opened en masse and lower rarities soften in price. But then again, depends how much tournament play it sees. There are plenty of good uncommons in the set, actually. Some uncommons seem like they would have been rares in other sets, and some rares (like many of the really bad ones, Avalanche Tusker comes to mind) seem like they would have been uncommons elsewhere.
What are your picks for undervalued cards? Overhyped ready-to-plunge cards? What trends do you expect to see with this set? What lessons from the past can be applied here to predict price movements? Where are the fetchlands going in the next couple years.... and the next 10 years?
Box value is somewhere around $120 right now, so for someone like me who gets boxes at $100, that is great news. Common sense tells us the set will be printed until the value of a box is close to retail price. Will it be the fetchlands that come down from their $15 to $20 price point? Or will the planeswalkers take a big hit?
Things move quickly at this point in the set's lifecycle. These prices and positions were actually set 3 days ago when I first entered the singles into my inventory. I didn't have a chance to make this thread then. Now, I'm doing a full update, so the first tally update will be in a few hours. Thanks once again for your participation!
(previous tallies are located in the following posts: 1)
Some interesting early movements:
1) Sarkhan the Dragonspeaker (36)
2) Sorin Solemn Visitor (23)
3) Polluted Delta (19)
4) Flooded Strand (18)
5) Windswept Heath (16)
6) Wooded Foothills (16)
7) Bloodstained Mire (15)
8) Wingmate Roc(14)
9) Clever Imposter (9)
10) Dig Through Time(8)
11) Mantis Rider (6)
12) Sidisi Brood Tyrant (6)
13) Surrak Dragonclaw (6)
14) Ashcloud Phoenix (5.5)
15) Bloodsoaked Champion (5.5)
16) Siege Rhino (5.5)
17) Anafenza the Foremost (5)
18) Utter End (5)
19) Empty the Pits (4.5)
20) Jeskai Ascendancy (4.5)
21) Rattleclaw Mystic (4.5)
22) Butcher of the Horde (4)
23) End Hostilities (4)
24) Savage Knuckleblade (4)
25) Hooded Hydra (3.5)
26) Crackling Doom (3)
27) Narset Enlightened Master (3)
28) See the Unwritten (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover.(#)is price in CND incl. shipping here.
There are now 28 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Monastery Swiftspear (the only uncommon on the tally) fell off.
As you can see, the mythic planeswalkers atop the tally didn't budge in the 3 days since I originally set their prices. Neither, really, did the fetchlands which sit firmly in the $15 to $20 range. Below that came Wingmate Roc, flying up from $9 to $14. I don't get it, personally. Even if it ALWAYS triggered raid, you're getting 6 power for 3WW, hardly broken. The lifegain feels janky, tacked on randomly, and "win more". But the market disagrees with me and up it goes! Dig Through Time is close behind, doubling in price. I personally love the card but was surprised by that move. Anybody know what's going on, did it 4-of in a tournament? Mantis Rider is pretty strong, I've sold a few copies already, and the price seems quite firm here. It's the most valuable 3-colour card in the set right now, along with Sidisi Brood Tyrant. I expect them both to cool over the next couple months. Surrak Dragonclaw at $6 feels cheap to me, but then again, he's legendary and 3-colour so demand will only be so strong. Over time though, he should retain good value and be a casual staple with all those juicy abilities tacked on. Ashcloud Phoenix is up a little, strange for a mono-red card! Then again, red has been doing well in Standard lately, that could explain it. Siege Rhino is selling fairly well, and I hear people talking about it, so it's one to watch. Myself, it's just not quite good enough and I think people are overvaluing it. Then again, it's got trample, and it affects things as soon as you play it, and can be a win condition in itself, so I wouldn't discount it. I do love the design. I think at 5/5 it would have been a huge beating. At 4/5 it feels like "not quite". But a metagame suited for it may be emerging and it could see a lot of play as mid-range support. Jeskai Ascendancy is up, and now is several times more valuable than the other Ascendancies. I don't get it, some of the others seem a lot better! End Hostilities like other Wrath variants in recent years isn't being loved, maybe control isn't viable right now? Savage Knuckleblade took a nasty tumble and soon won't be on the tally at all IMO.
Box value is holding tight well above $100 over the past few days. It will be interesting to see where it goes. Some recent sets like JiN and M15 were sleepers, gaining in value drastically well after their release and they're now just behind KoT in Standard. But KoT is anything but a sleeper - much of the value is probably already "priced in". If anything, the box value needs to come down toward $100, as most sets currently in print do. How that changes the price of the singles will be played out here in the thread.
I think Dig Through Time is seeing quite a bit of play in control decks (of various sorts) at the Pro Tour going on this weekend. Right now, the lowest prices on TCGPlayer are currently 16 each (Yes, I know that your tallies aren't based on TCG Prices, but it is a commonly used pricing metric, so prices there definitely influence many people's perceptions of what cards are worth)
I definitely agree with your assessment that singles prices have to go down more - I generally don't buy sealed product since I don't draft, don't play Standard, and I recognize that it's a losing bet on expected value, but even I'm tempted to jump in given how absurd the box value is right now. If a lot of people are thinking along those same lines, it's only a matter of time before prices fall.
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Dig Through Time showed up in more on-camera decks than it didn't (the top tables were half Jeskai variants, and a bunch of Dimir control decks showed up which lost every game on camera), and it's looking more likely that the correct amount of the card maindeck is 4. It's been called "better than Sphinx's Revelation" in an interview once, but the comparison being drawn at all probably goes some of the way to explaining why people have been sleeping on the card for so long. The comparison to Fact or Fiction feels more apt, and Dig probably wins that one.
Wingmate Roc might have some of the appeal of Thragtusk, which was also two bodies plus a bit of life at 5cmc. It's not as splashable, dies to wraths and doesn't give you the life as an ETB, but it also packs evasion and blocks better.
I guess Ashcloud Phoenix's deal is that it's 4 evasive power for 4cmc, and it usually gets a second chance if it dies. A lot of Standard games get grindy and players tend to end up with a lot of spare mana, which makes 4RR to "re-cast" probably fine. You don't even have to keep the mana up to protect it - unless your opponent is willing to spend the resources to kill it twice, you can bring the Phoenix back at your leisure.
Siege Rhino isn't a 5/5 because development don't want it to be a clean-cut Polukranos replacement. The way I'd expect it to play out, Polukranos probably wins the midrange grind whereas Siege Rhino reigns in a board flooded by aggro weenies.
Lastly, I do disagree with you on Savage Knuckleblade. Late-game on an empty board against a control deck, the thing starts behaving a bit like an Aetherling, hasting in from hand for 4cmc and returning to hand for an additional 3cmc if something goes awry. Having that kind of late game in your 4-power 3-drop seems really good.
There's talk of banning Jeskai Ascendancy in Modern because there's an Ascendancy combo deck that kills reliably on turn 3 (or even turn 2?). There's also a Standard variant that has made it to the top tables at the pro tour.
As for other cards that may rise soon, one of the two 8-0 decks was an Abzan aggro build which ran a playset of Rakshasa Deathdealer, and the deck didn't really get any camera-time aside from a deck tech interview. Not much else that I saw in the deck tech looked undervalued, aside from maybe Fleecemane Lion (which was in a highly-opened large set) and Herald of Torment (which is in the BNG event deck). Deathdealer is a narrower card than Dig, but people will probably want it if it wins the pro tour.
(Also I apologise if double-posting is considered a form of spam, I couldn't figure out how to edit my post.)
Yes, Dig Through Time is being very weird tonight. From $4 to $8 and now $16 - in 24h. Many sites and eBay sellers are sold out. I suspect prices will settle back to Earth during the north American daytime, as more supply comes available. But it'll still settle above $10 for now, I think. Interesting.
You have to understand that Dig turned some very one-sided board states around, on camera, and the commentators really gave it credit when it happened. I stated in the Standard gainers thread that I was dumbfounded at how long people stayed asleep on this card - that's what I think the weird part is. If people were more awake about it before now, it probably still would've spiked, but maybe it would've been a $7-$8 card that made its way to ~$12 over the course of the day, rather than violently jerking upwards in price. Now it looks like we're seeing a buyout by a bunch of foolhardy speculators trying to profit off the chaos of the moment, which just sets a stable price further back.
Dig Through Time was also one of the prerelease promo cards so there is a bit of extra supply out there.
I just don't think non-mythic rares in this set can hold much value long term. It has to settle at some point as product gets opened for players of all formats to get their sets of fetches at a decent price.
Rakshasa Deathdealer might be good but I don't know if it can be something that shoots up. I mean it gets hated out by Drown in Sorrow and Anger of the Gods like all other weenies.
I think this Abzan aggro deck that went 8-0 was quite lucky. People need to remember that results are skewed for draft.
I think it was around $15-$20 before, up near what a foil KTK Dig Through Time was already fetching. Maybe being one of 8 Sultai promos (rather than *the* Sultai promo) is a significant factor in how much was printed? I don't really know much about supply of promo cards.
As far as the Abzan aggro deck goes, you'd only really get the 2-drops (Fleecemane Lion, Heir of the Wilds and Deathdealer) and Herald of Torment with Anger, and by a certain point in the game Drown in Sorrow doesn't touch anything and Anger doesn't do much better - Deathdealer's abilities go online, Fleecemane can go monstrous, etc. I don't think it played any 1-drops, and it topped its curve with Anafenza, Herald, Siege Rhino and Sorin. Definitely a little stompier than the red and black aggro decks that Anger and Drown are sweeping up.
Nevertheless, I only mentioned Deathdealer and the Abzan aggro deck because it's one of the strongest cards in the only other deck that looked like it was having a breakout moment at the pro tour, and rancored_elf put out an open question about which cards might (still) be sleepers. I'll probably only complete my playset of Deathdealer, and I doubt I'll seriously regret not stockpiling them.
I think it was around $15-$20 before, up near what a foil KTK Dig Through Time was already fetching. Maybe being one of 8 Sultai promos (rather than *the* Sultai promo) is a significant factor in how much was printed? I don't really know much about supply of promo cards.
I mathed this out in the Rumor Mill, though I used (obviously) hypothetical numbers. The long and short of it is that the 40-prerelease promos are effectively the same as the 40 possible rares you could get in your seeded packs in the previous pre-releases. They are *slightly* more common than a pack rare, but not astoundingly so like the 5-preelease promos (which were also intro deck promos) are/were. Recall that both Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman were possibilities in the seeded Golgari pack back in RtR.
Dig through Time seems like the real deal to me. It's not getting as much hype as Treasure Cruise, which has already proven itself 4x playable in both Legacy (UR Delver) and Modern (UR Delver and Jeskai Ascendancy Storm) with the possibility of being 4x playable in many other decks. However, it is still a very strong card, and I would not be at all surprised to see it in a wide array of decks in Modern and maybe a few in Legacy. Especially in a Combo deck like Splinter Twin, where an EoT dig can draw you into both pieces of your combo, the card is insane. It's very easy to have ~6 mana up EoT, Dig into a Pestermite/Exarch, and then cast the Pestermite/Exarch with Dispel mana up, and untap into Splinter Twin or Kiki for the win. I'm currently running 1x main and 1x boarded in my Geist Twin build, and I'm looking for areas where I could bump those numbers slightly.
As far as Jeskai Ascendancy's price goes, the card doesn't look like much in a vacuum, but there are already combo decks in both Standard and Modern that utilize it alongside mana dorks and 1-mana cantrips to dig through the entire deck while generating a huge storm count (and mana with multiple Dorks in play or with probe/morphose/wisps). It's comparable to the extremely gimmicky Blistercoil Weird + Paradise Mantle deck that popped up a year or so ago, but its pieces are all much stronger and much more usable on their own, and Glittering Wish lets you tutor the Ascendancy. The Modern list is frighteningly consistent and resilient, running a full set of wishes alongside 4x each of Ponder, Preordain, Manamorphose, Gitaxian Probe, and Treasure Cruise, plus then tricks to generate more mana like Wind Zendikon, Cerulean Wisps, Crimson Wisps, Postmortem Lunge, Lifespark Spellbomb, or others. It also runs 12 dorks (Birds of Paradise, Noble Hierarch, and Sylvan Caryatid most commonly), giving it a huge amount of consistency in finding both pieces of its combo. It can goldfish on turn 2 or 3, and with so much digging, it can often attempt to combo off multiple times in the face of disruption.
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I've tested see the unwritten and it's decent. I've been testing a lot of cards and decks that the pros aren't really so hot on right now (They usually just test the for five decks that appear to be popular and don't really branch out from there) just to see what else is out there. Right now I'm doing temur ascendancy, and it's a pretty sweet deck once it gets going. Savage knuckleblade can be reused with it to get a lot of late game value - I think it's a lot better than loxodon smiter which saw plenty of play even when discard wasn't a thing. Genesis hydra for x=4 is pretty much the bees knees with the ascendancy. See the unwritten acts as extra genesis hydras.
Jeskai Ascendancy does look like it's drifting upward currently. Hmmm, didn't realize how well it comboed in storm-type decks, thanks. $5 or so now. See the Unwritten went from $3 to $6 in the hours since I went to bed last night. Dig Through Time seems to have plateaued (temporarily?) at about $14. I agree that a rare can't maintain that price tag in this set unless it is seeing consistant play in multiple decks across more than one format. So we'll see what happens with it.
Dig Through Time seems to have plateaued (temporarily?) at about $14. I agree that a rare can't maintain that price tag in this set unless it is seeing consistant play in multiple decks across more than one format. So we'll see what happens with it.
Dig Through Time is arguably better than Brainstorm. If any rare can hold that price, it can. If you haven't played the card yet give it a try. It does very unfair things. It's just a matter of time before it supplants Treasure Cruise in Modern/Legacy.
It's the win condition in the UB deck. That deck may or may not be real though, it has gone 1-7 on camera. It loses hard to Jeskai but is supposedly good against the midrange decks.
It's probably worth mentioning that going by TCGPlayer Mid Prices, the average value of the rare/mythic slot right now is $4.46. Given that in general, prices aren't really stable until they hit $2.50 EV (maybe a bit higher, up to $2.80-2.90), I post this as a warning to those who would try to delve (pun intended) into buying Khans cards right now - a lot of them are going to fall quite hard as more packs are opened.
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Dig Through Time seems to have plateaued (temporarily?) at about $14. I agree that a rare can't maintain that price tag in this set unless it is seeing consistant play in multiple decks across more than one format. So we'll see what happens with it.
Dig Through Time is arguably better than Brainstorm. If any rare can hold that price, it can. If you haven't played the card yet give it a try. It does very unfair things. It's just a matter of time before it supplants Treasure Cruise in Modern/Legacy.
You know if you say something like "its arguably better than brainstorm," you aren't going to be taken seriously.
Dig is really good but the double u cost is going to restrict its play to the slower blue decks, and probably only 1-2 of. Its busted in modern though, I would be worrying about it eventually getting banned in the format though. It makes twin much stronger and twin was already arguably the best deck.
In standard its basically better fact of fiction, steam augury aspects eat your heart out.
Please keep on topic. The thread is a running tally of KtK cards not deck strategies.~Duxx
Everything will drop a lot by the time the next set comes out. You have been warned. This point right now is the highest almost every khan card will be for the next year.
Cheers
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(previous tallies are located in the following posts: nil)
One of the most anticipated sets (and tallies) in a while:
1) Sarkhan the Dragonspeaker (36)
2) Sorin Solemn Visitor (23)
3) Flooded Strand (20)
4) Polluted Delta (20)
5) Windswept Heath (16)
6) Wooded Foothills (16)
7) Bloodstained Mire (15)
8) Clever Imposter (10)
9) Wingmate Roc (10)
10) Surrak Dragonclaw (7)
11) Mantis Rider (6)
12) Sidisi Brood Tyrant (6)
13) Utter End (6)
14) Bloodsoaked Champion (5.5)
15) Savage Knuckleblade (5.5)
16) Siege Rhino (5.5)
17) Anafenza the Foremost (5)
18) Ashcloud Phoenix (5)
19) Empty the Pits (5)
20) Butcher of the Horde (4.5)
21) Dig Through Time (4.5)
22) Rattleclaw Mystic (4.5)
23) End Hostilities (4)
24) Hooded Hydra (4)
25) Jeskai Ascendancy (4)
26) Crackling Doom (3.5)
27) Monastery Swiftspear (3)
28) Narset Enlightened Master (3)
29) See the Unwritten (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
A healthy 29 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack. Born and JiN each had 14, Theros began with 38, M15 with 20.
I'll save my individual card analysis and commentary for a later post. In general though, we have 2 mythic planeswalkers out front (not unusual), a cycle of high value rare lands next (also not unusual), then quite a gap all the way down to the miscellaneous rares and mythics in the single-digit price range. Some cards seem grossly undervalued to me, and then there are some that I can't believe are even ON the tally in the first place - like Narset Enlightened Master, Anafenza the Foremost, and Savage Knuckleblade. I keep hearing "4/4 for three mana is really strong even WITHOUT any abilities!" but those people must have forgotten about Leatherback Baloth. Yes, with all the mana fixing out there, many decks can come up with 3 specific mana on turn 3 (or even 2). But monogreen has no trouble pumping out this 4/5 for three, and yet the card has never impacted the tournament scene. 4/4 for GUR is NOT strong without abilities, it's weak. The abilities had better be amazing, to redeem the card overall! In the case of Knuckleblade they're just okay, as far as I can see. Being able to return to hand, and then come back probably with haste, is great. In decks that can come up with the mana cost, he'll see play as a 3-of or so. But not many decks fit that description. I see the price coming down once the GUR players out there have their copies. I'm reminded of Reaper of the Wilds.
Nice to see Monastery Swiftspear (uncommon) on the tally. It may not stay there, as the set gets opened en masse and lower rarities soften in price. But then again, depends how much tournament play it sees. There are plenty of good uncommons in the set, actually. Some uncommons seem like they would have been rares in other sets, and some rares (like many of the really bad ones, Avalanche Tusker comes to mind) seem like they would have been uncommons elsewhere.
What are your picks for undervalued cards? Overhyped ready-to-plunge cards? What trends do you expect to see with this set? What lessons from the past can be applied here to predict price movements? Where are the fetchlands going in the next couple years.... and the next 10 years?
Box value is somewhere around $120 right now, so for someone like me who gets boxes at $100, that is great news. Common sense tells us the set will be printed until the value of a box is close to retail price. Will it be the fetchlands that come down from their $15 to $20 price point? Or will the planeswalkers take a big hit?
Things move quickly at this point in the set's lifecycle. These prices and positions were actually set 3 days ago when I first entered the singles into my inventory. I didn't have a chance to make this thread then. Now, I'm doing a full update, so the first tally update will be in a few hours. Thanks once again for your participation!
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Some interesting early movements:
1) Sarkhan the Dragonspeaker (36)
2) Sorin Solemn Visitor (23)
3) Polluted Delta (19)
4) Flooded Strand (18)
5) Windswept Heath (16)
6) Wooded Foothills (16)
7) Bloodstained Mire (15)
8) Wingmate Roc (14)
9) Clever Imposter (9)
10) Dig Through Time (8)
11) Mantis Rider (6)
12) Sidisi Brood Tyrant (6)
13) Surrak Dragonclaw (6)
14) Ashcloud Phoenix (5.5)
15) Bloodsoaked Champion (5.5)
16) Siege Rhino (5.5)
17) Anafenza the Foremost (5)
18) Utter End (5)
19) Empty the Pits (4.5)
20) Jeskai Ascendancy (4.5)
21) Rattleclaw Mystic (4.5)
22) Butcher of the Horde (4)
23) End Hostilities (4)
24) Savage Knuckleblade (4)
25) Hooded Hydra (3.5)
26) Crackling Doom (3)
27) Narset Enlightened Master (3)
28) See the Unwritten (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
There are now 28 cards are worth $3 or more, and therefore worth opening in a booster pack, as Monastery Swiftspear (the only uncommon on the tally) fell off.
As you can see, the mythic planeswalkers atop the tally didn't budge in the 3 days since I originally set their prices. Neither, really, did the fetchlands which sit firmly in the $15 to $20 range. Below that came Wingmate Roc, flying up from $9 to $14. I don't get it, personally. Even if it ALWAYS triggered raid, you're getting 6 power for 3WW, hardly broken. The lifegain feels janky, tacked on randomly, and "win more". But the market disagrees with me and up it goes! Dig Through Time is close behind, doubling in price. I personally love the card but was surprised by that move. Anybody know what's going on, did it 4-of in a tournament? Mantis Rider is pretty strong, I've sold a few copies already, and the price seems quite firm here. It's the most valuable 3-colour card in the set right now, along with Sidisi Brood Tyrant. I expect them both to cool over the next couple months. Surrak Dragonclaw at $6 feels cheap to me, but then again, he's legendary and 3-colour so demand will only be so strong. Over time though, he should retain good value and be a casual staple with all those juicy abilities tacked on. Ashcloud Phoenix is up a little, strange for a mono-red card! Then again, red has been doing well in Standard lately, that could explain it. Siege Rhino is selling fairly well, and I hear people talking about it, so it's one to watch. Myself, it's just not quite good enough and I think people are overvaluing it. Then again, it's got trample, and it affects things as soon as you play it, and can be a win condition in itself, so I wouldn't discount it. I do love the design. I think at 5/5 it would have been a huge beating. At 4/5 it feels like "not quite". But a metagame suited for it may be emerging and it could see a lot of play as mid-range support. Jeskai Ascendancy is up, and now is several times more valuable than the other Ascendancies. I don't get it, some of the others seem a lot better! End Hostilities like other Wrath variants in recent years isn't being loved, maybe control isn't viable right now? Savage Knuckleblade took a nasty tumble and soon won't be on the tally at all IMO.
Box value is holding tight well above $100 over the past few days. It will be interesting to see where it goes. Some recent sets like JiN and M15 were sleepers, gaining in value drastically well after their release and they're now just behind KoT in Standard. But KoT is anything but a sleeper - much of the value is probably already "priced in". If anything, the box value needs to come down toward $100, as most sets currently in print do. How that changes the price of the singles will be played out here in the thread.
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I definitely agree with your assessment that singles prices have to go down more - I generally don't buy sealed product since I don't draft, don't play Standard, and I recognize that it's a losing bet on expected value, but even I'm tempted to jump in given how absurd the box value is right now. If a lot of people are thinking along those same lines, it's only a matter of time before prices fall.
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$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
The prices on your site are in USD though.
Wingmate Roc might have some of the appeal of Thragtusk, which was also two bodies plus a bit of life at 5cmc. It's not as splashable, dies to wraths and doesn't give you the life as an ETB, but it also packs evasion and blocks better.
I guess Ashcloud Phoenix's deal is that it's 4 evasive power for 4cmc, and it usually gets a second chance if it dies. A lot of Standard games get grindy and players tend to end up with a lot of spare mana, which makes 4RR to "re-cast" probably fine. You don't even have to keep the mana up to protect it - unless your opponent is willing to spend the resources to kill it twice, you can bring the Phoenix back at your leisure.
Siege Rhino isn't a 5/5 because development don't want it to be a clean-cut Polukranos replacement. The way I'd expect it to play out, Polukranos probably wins the midrange grind whereas Siege Rhino reigns in a board flooded by aggro weenies.
Lastly, I do disagree with you on Savage Knuckleblade. Late-game on an empty board against a control deck, the thing starts behaving a bit like an Aetherling, hasting in from hand for 4cmc and returning to hand for an additional 3cmc if something goes awry. Having that kind of late game in your 4-power 3-drop seems really good.
There's talk of banning Jeskai Ascendancy in Modern because there's an Ascendancy combo deck that kills reliably on turn 3 (or even turn 2?). There's also a Standard variant that has made it to the top tables at the pro tour.
(Also I apologise if double-posting is considered a form of spam, I couldn't figure out how to edit my post.)
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I just don't think non-mythic rares in this set can hold much value long term. It has to settle at some point as product gets opened for players of all formats to get their sets of fetches at a decent price.
Rakshasa Deathdealer might be good but I don't know if it can be something that shoots up. I mean it gets hated out by Drown in Sorrow and Anger of the Gods like all other weenies.
I think this Abzan aggro deck that went 8-0 was quite lucky. People need to remember that results are skewed for draft.
Jeskai decks were still the stars of the day.
Whatever Parke was playing was good but I have no idea what's in his deck. Raise the Alarm, Disdainful Stroke, Banishing Light and Stormbreath Dragon all in the main. That's not the usual Jeskai deck.
http://shop.tcgplayer.com/magic/prerelease-cards/dig-through-time
I think it was around $15-$20 before, up near what a foil KTK Dig Through Time was already fetching. Maybe being one of 8 Sultai promos (rather than *the* Sultai promo) is a significant factor in how much was printed? I don't really know much about supply of promo cards.
As far as the Abzan aggro deck goes, you'd only really get the 2-drops (Fleecemane Lion, Heir of the Wilds and Deathdealer) and Herald of Torment with Anger, and by a certain point in the game Drown in Sorrow doesn't touch anything and Anger doesn't do much better - Deathdealer's abilities go online, Fleecemane can go monstrous, etc. I don't think it played any 1-drops, and it topped its curve with Anafenza, Herald, Siege Rhino and Sorin. Definitely a little stompier than the red and black aggro decks that Anger and Drown are sweeping up.
Nevertheless, I only mentioned Deathdealer and the Abzan aggro deck because it's one of the strongest cards in the only other deck that looked like it was having a breakout moment at the pro tour, and rancored_elf put out an open question about which cards might (still) be sleepers. I'll probably only complete my playset of Deathdealer, and I doubt I'll seriously regret not stockpiling them.
I mathed this out in the Rumor Mill, though I used (obviously) hypothetical numbers. The long and short of it is that the 40-prerelease promos are effectively the same as the 40 possible rares you could get in your seeded packs in the previous pre-releases. They are *slightly* more common than a pack rare, but not astoundingly so like the 5-preelease promos (which were also intro deck promos) are/were. Recall that both Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman were possibilities in the seeded Golgari pack back in RtR.
Dig through Time seems like the real deal to me. It's not getting as much hype as Treasure Cruise, which has already proven itself 4x playable in both Legacy (UR Delver) and Modern (UR Delver and Jeskai Ascendancy Storm) with the possibility of being 4x playable in many other decks. However, it is still a very strong card, and I would not be at all surprised to see it in a wide array of decks in Modern and maybe a few in Legacy. Especially in a Combo deck like Splinter Twin, where an EoT dig can draw you into both pieces of your combo, the card is insane. It's very easy to have ~6 mana up EoT, Dig into a Pestermite/Exarch, and then cast the Pestermite/Exarch with Dispel mana up, and untap into Splinter Twin or Kiki for the win. I'm currently running 1x main and 1x boarded in my Geist Twin build, and I'm looking for areas where I could bump those numbers slightly.
As far as Jeskai Ascendancy's price goes, the card doesn't look like much in a vacuum, but there are already combo decks in both Standard and Modern that utilize it alongside mana dorks and 1-mana cantrips to dig through the entire deck while generating a huge storm count (and mana with multiple Dorks in play or with probe/morphose/wisps). It's comparable to the extremely gimmicky Blistercoil Weird + Paradise Mantle deck that popped up a year or so ago, but its pieces are all much stronger and much more usable on their own, and Glittering Wish lets you tutor the Ascendancy. The Modern list is frighteningly consistent and resilient, running a full set of wishes alongside 4x each of Ponder, Preordain, Manamorphose, Gitaxian Probe, and Treasure Cruise, plus then tricks to generate more mana like Wind Zendikon, Cerulean Wisps, Crimson Wisps, Postmortem Lunge, Lifespark Spellbomb, or others. It also runs 12 dorks (Birds of Paradise, Noble Hierarch, and Sylvan Caryatid most commonly), giving it a huge amount of consistency in finding both pieces of its combo. It can goldfish on turn 2 or 3, and with so much digging, it can often attempt to combo off multiple times in the face of disruption.
Currently Playing:
Legacy: Something U/W Controlish
EDH Cube
Hypercube! A New EDH Deck Every Week(ish)!
See the Unwritten went from $3 to $6 in the hours since I went to bed last night.
Dig Through Time seems to have plateaued (temporarily?) at about $14. I agree that a rare can't maintain that price tag in this set unless it is seeing consistant play in multiple decks across more than one format. So we'll see what happens with it.
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Dig Through Time is arguably better than Brainstorm. If any rare can hold that price, it can. If you haven't played the card yet give it a try. It does very unfair things. It's just a matter of time before it supplants Treasure Cruise in Modern/Legacy.
It's the win condition in the UB deck. That deck may or may not be real though, it has gone 1-7 on camera. It loses hard to Jeskai but is supposedly good against the midrange decks.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
You know if you say something like "its arguably better than brainstorm," you aren't going to be taken seriously.
Dig is really good but the double u cost is going to restrict its play to the slower blue decks, and probably only 1-2 of. Its busted in modern though, I would be worrying about it eventually getting banned in the format though. It makes twin much stronger and twin was already arguably the best deck.
In standard its basically better fact of fiction, steam augury aspects eat your heart out.
Please keep on topic. The thread is a running tally of KtK cards not deck strategies.~Duxx
Cheers