I played a naya(mostly mono green) hydra list for WMCQ in Japan going 6-3 with Genesis Hydra being the all star of the deck. I could be behind on board and cast a hydra for 5 and all of a sudden be in a winning position. The card is insane and the fact that the extra card you get is just put into play and not cast makes it even better. I wouldn't be surprised to see it rise in value a bit more after rotation. It fits in with both Azban and Temur nicely with their themes and generally brings value to the table. Removal will also be a bit weaker on rotation making this a good pickup.
Do remember that all three of the non-Ensoul Artifact cards that you listed are part of the cycle of M15 cards that is exclusive to Deckbuilder's Toolkits, Learn to Play decks, and similar pre-constructed and semi-random product, and which does not appear in booster packs. Given the relative rarity of the listed cards relative to other versions, I can understand that they could be going for a buck apiece.
Ah, that would be it. Obviously enough people still out there collecting every printing of Serra and Sengir for old time's sake. Same for Fat Moti at rare, IIRC?
Do remember that all three of the non-Ensoul Artifact cards that you listed are part of the cycle of M15 cards that is exclusive to Deckbuilder's Toolkits, Learn to Play decks, and similar pre-constructed and semi-random product, and which does not appear in booster packs. Given the relative rarity of the listed cards relative to other versions, I can understand that they could be going for a buck apiece.
Ah, that would be it. Obviously enough people still out there collecting every printing of Serra and Sengir for old time's sake. Same for Fat Moti at rare, IIRC?
I don't know that I'd blame old time's sake. I collect Angels and Dragons, so I need the Serra Angel and Furnace Whelp that are only available here (as well as Aegis Angel and Shivan Dragon). Dragons and Angels are pretty popular creature types for even non-Magic players to collect. I bet that there's a decent following for Vampires as well.
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Maybe it has to do that they (Serra and Sengir) are actually viable this standard, they block everything that has to be blocked on the air exept for Stormbreath and Sarkhan and removal is in a very bad state. Wouldn't surprise me to see them seeing a lot of FNM level play.
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
Stoke the Flames and Hornet Queen rose above the $3 level, while Polymorphist's Jest fell below, making 27 cards worth opening in a booster pack - and on the tally.
Wow, what an incredible set. Despite being born in the shadow of the giant Khans of Tarkir, or perhaps BECAUSE of that, the expected value of a box of M15 is far above what most buyers can get it for. Normally that means players (and dealers) will buy and open boxes until that opportunity is used up (aka "arbitrage" in financial terms). I think what's happening now is buyers are pouring all spare money into Khans, to get fetchlands, and M15's price continues to inflate as supply drops. A box contains about $100 in value, which is above even the excellent JiN and Theros sets. Khans is top set in print at $120ish (wow!) and Conspiracy is the worst at about $60.
Nissa has held tight between 35 and 40 since release and remains there now. Rabblemaster, a card that wasn't even worth $2 a few weeks ago, has shot up to $20! Can that last? Is it really a better card than Thoughtseize? If you're looking to sell, this might be the point for Rabblemaster (although it could go a BIT higher before it comes down). Garruk, Ajani, Jace, Liliana, and Chandra cooled... while the painlands shot up, some even doubling since my last update! The rare 6/6 trample for fell less than the mythic 6/6 trample for , putting the rare in front by a tie-break. Hornet Queen (huh?) and Stoke the Flames (wow!) both jumped from $1 to $3 recently - one likely from casual demand and the other likely from Standard demand.
The set will continue to be under-opened. If you're looking for value (aside from Khans) this is where it's at right now. Khans will likely have long term appeal more so than M15, but it shouldn't be overlooked in the short term. It's already one of the most valuable sets printed in the past several years.
I'm in the middle of a move in my personal life, so I've been a little behind on my tally updates this past week. It may continue that way for another week or so. Thanks for understanding. I'll have my Khans singles (and the associated tally) up in a few days.
Stoke the Flames and Hornet Queen are seeing play in Standard. Green Devotion lists are running 1-3 Queen's (I've got two in mine), so expect the value to continue to rise so long as Green Devotion decks are a popular metagame choice. Stoke the Flames is seeing play for obvious reasons; it combos well with Rabblemaster and it kills Courser. The stores in my area are sold out, and I doubt it's just us, so I expect this to rise as well.
Conversely, I think Nissa will be headed down soon. She is very popular in Green Devotion, but you rarely need more than one of her. Also, Sarkhan may be a better choice, further cutting into her slice of the metagame. I'm considering selling one of my copies while she's still expensive.
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Innistrad-RTR
UWR Flash: 7-1, 1 FNM Win-A-Box
Rakdos Aggro: 20-8
UW Flash: 11-5
Boros Aggro: 3-1
Jund: 42-12-3, 4 TNM Win-A-Box, 2 Koopa Standard IQs, Gatecrash Game Day Champion, M14 Game Day Champion
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
The Souls of Innistrad, Shandalar, and Theros fell below the $3 mark, leaving 24 cards worth opening in a booster pack - and on the tally.
Plenty of hot cards right now, from the uncommon Stoke, to all the painlands, to recent jumpers like Perilous Vault and Hornet Queen. Urborg is seeing renewed Standard play and a price boost as well. The set overall continues to be one of the highest valued core sets printed, and is currently the 2nd highest expected box value amongst in-print sets (KoT being first of course).
In regards to how I gauge expected box value (EBV), I'll do a longer discussion about that soon. In short, several websites now do the calculation based on various metrics. I find the ones I think are most accurate, check them often, compared it to what I'm seeing happening on eBay and here in this forum, and roll that information into a number. But to make it really simple for now, check this link. The site is one of the best for calculating EBV, and if you're only going to check one, that's probably it. Then again, it depends on your needs. That one works pretty good for me. I also like Jeff's posts on the subject. He discusses EBV occasionally here in these threads and does a pretty solid calculation of his own.
Where do you see the set's value going in the next few months? Has Genesis Hydra failed to impress? Chasm Skulker looks like the hype was short lived, too. Can the painlands maintain this strength? Is Goblin Rabblemaster sustainable at $18? How much play is it getting in older formats? What card in the set do you personally think is great, that you feel is overlooked and should be played (and valued) more?
[I][SIZE="1"]( Can the painlands maintain this strength? Is Goblin Rabblemaster sustainable at $18? How much play is it getting in older formats? What card in the set do you personally think is great, that you feel is overlooked and should be played (and valued) more?
Have a great weekend
Goblin Rabblemaster looks like following the same trajectory as Boros Reckoner. I don't think it will drop under $12 again while it's legal in standard, but it will be down below $4 post rotation quick smart.
Pain Lands fix your mana and enter the battlefield untapped, and unlike the Fetchlands are each in two Clans' colours. I think their price may even tick up.
I claim no ability to judge what will become the in-demand card in the short term, but post rotation I'd expect Sliver Hive and Sliver Hivelord to rise steadily and treble their prices within 3 years (barring reprints of course).
Have a good week-end yourself
(Perilous Vault and Stoke the Flames jumped by featuring strongly in the recent Pro Tour webcast matches)
Wow, what's going on with this set? Almost every played card has went through the roof in a VERY short amount of time. The painlands are approaching fetchland price, quite a few $1-$2 rares and myhthics more than tripled, 6 planeswalkers that have barely budged in price and we have a $4 uncommon?? Should I just buy M15 packs instead of Khans?
Okay. This update is going to just be a quick and dirty one from the lower end (but not tcgplayer low) of tcgplayer NM prices. Amounts listed are what it would cost to buy the cards not what one would expect to get in cash after selling the cards online.
Top valued rares/mythics:
Nissa Worldwaker: $28
Goblin Rabblemaster: $15
Ajani Steadfast: $10.50
Garruk Apex Predator: $10.50
Battlefield Forge: $7.50
Liliana Vess: $7.50
Shivan Reef: $7
Chandra Pyromaster: $7
Llanowar Wastes: $6.50
Perilous Vault: $6.50
Jace the Living Guildpact: $6.50
Yavimaya Coast: $5
Sliver Hivelord: $5.00
Chord of Calling: $4.50
Urborg Tomb of Yawgmoth: $4.50
Stoke the Flames: $4 (UNCOMMON)
Hornet Queen: $3.50
Scuttling Doom Engine: $3.50
Soul of New Phyrexia: $3.50
Genesis Hydra: $2.50
Caves of Koilos: $2.50
Everything else is less than $2.
Total value of set singles:
Mythics: $90
Rares: $82
Uncommon/common set: $8
Total set value: $180
Overall average box value:
Mythics: $90/15= $6/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $27
Rares: $82/53= $1.55/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $49
Uncommon/common set = $8 x 1.3 = $10
Foils: $4
Overall Average Box Value: $90
Approx value on ebay: $85/box
Sellable singles value after 20% in fees: $68/box
For a core set, magic 2015 is holding up rather well. A $90 box value is nothing to scoff at as far as a regular standard magic set goes. However compared to khans, there really is no comparison, Khans of Tarkir, for now (and likely into the future) continues to be far ahead in value both in what it would cost to buy the singles from an average box as well as selling the singles on ebay for example from an average box.
Unfortunately I don't have time for further singles commentary, so I will have to leave it at that for now. Anyhow, enjoy the update, hopefully some will find it useful :).
Wow, what's going on with this set? Almost every played card has went through the roof in a VERY short amount of time. The painlands are approaching fetchland price, quite a few $1-$2 rares and myhthics more than tripled, 6 planeswalkers that have barely budged in price and we have a $4 uncommon?? Should I just buy M15 packs instead of Khans?
Yes.
The same thing happened to M14 cards. This to me indicates that nobody wants to buy it. This is probably the main reason Wizards wants to cut core sets not that they would come out and say it like that.
Wow, what's going on with this set? Almost every played card has went through the roof in a VERY short amount of time. The painlands are approaching fetchland price, quite a few $1-$2 rares and myhthics more than tripled, 6 planeswalkers that have barely budged in price and we have a $4 uncommon?? Should I just buy M15 packs instead of Khans?
Yes.
The same thing happened to M14 cards. This to me indicates that nobody wants to buy it.
True, M14 was warming in Sept, hot in Oct, and then stable for a while before cooling.
But JiN had a similar pattern, so it isn't just core sets that can do that.
Also, I don't think it means nobody wants to buy it. In fact, with the value of singles in an unopened box so high, and unopened boxes still in print and cheap, it looks very attractive to players and dealers. I'm still opening M15, happily.
That said, I think painlands are about as pricey as they'll get. M15 isn't going to keep going up and up forever.
Maybe I just didn't care about M14 as much or need as many cards from it, but I don't recall so many cards in M14 blowing up in price or not even dipping.
Maybe I just didn't care about M14 as much or need as many cards from it, but I don't recall so many cards in M14 blowing up in price or not even dipping.
Yeah, maybe you weren't paying as close attention to M14 as you are to M15? If you'd like, you can always go back and check the Running Tally threads for any set in the past several years, to see what I was posting, and what others were posting, at various times. For example, here is M14 exactly one year ago. The set was hot, box value was high, several singles were in hot demand and even a few uncommons were noteworthy.
Then if you read further you see in November things seemed to be cooling a bit, and overall it went down once 2014 hit, except Mutavault rising to $30 and staying there until rotation.
So yeah, if history repeats (or at least rhymes) we should see M15 settle soon, and like I said, painlands have no business staying above $10
Maybe I just didn't care about M14 as much or need as many cards from it, but I don't recall so many cards in M14 blowing up in price or not even dipping.
Yeah, maybe you weren't paying as close attention to M14 as you are to M15? If you'd like, you can always go back and check the Running Tally threads for any set in the past several years, to see what I was posting, and what others were posting, at various times. For example, here is M14 exactly one year ago. The set was hot, box value was high, several singles were in hot demand and even a few uncommons were noteworthy.
Then if you read further you see in November things seemed to be cooling a bit, and overall it went down once 2014 hit, except Mutavault rising to $30 and staying there until rotation.
So yeah, if history repeats (or at least rhymes) we should see M15 settle soon, and like I said, painlands have no business staying above $10
It looks to me like the painlands are on their way down.
I think there was just a big crunch as people scrambled to build the decks they want to play over the coming months.
Now that those decks have been built demand is starting to fall.
Playset prices on Ebay have taken a sharp downturn over the last week for almost everything I have checked. I'm not saying the trend will hold I'm just saying I think it will.
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I think some of the souls might catch on but 2 of them have promo versions out there.
Some of the lands might do well (except Caves).
Ah, that would be it. Obviously enough people still out there collecting every printing of Serra and Sengir for old time's sake. Same for Fat Moti at rare, IIRC?
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I don't know that I'd blame old time's sake. I collect Angels and Dragons, so I need the Serra Angel and Furnace Whelp that are only available here (as well as Aegis Angel and Shivan Dragon). Dragons and Angels are pretty popular creature types for even non-Magic players to collect. I bet that there's a decent following for Vampires as well.
M15, born in the shadow of a giant:
1) Nissa Worldwaker (38) / / / /
2) Goblin Rabblemaster (18) / /
3) Garruk Apex Predator (17) / / / /
4) Ajani Steadfast (14) / / / /
5) Jace the Living Guildpact (10) / / /
6) Liliana Vess (9) / / / /
7) Sliver Hivelord (9) / / / /
8) Battlefield Forge (8) / / / /
9) Chord of Calling (8) / / / /
10) Chandra Pyromaster (7) / / / /
11) Llanowar Wastes (7) / / / /
12) Shivan Reef (5.5) / / / /
13) Genesis Hydra (5) / / / /
14) Scuttling Doom Engine (5) / / / /
15) Sliver Hive (5) / / / /
16) Soul of New Phyrexia (5) / / / /
17) Yavimaya Coast (5) / / / /
18) Caves of Koilos (4) / / / /
19) Urborg Tomb of Yawgmoth (4.5) / / / /
20) Chasm Skulker (4) /
21) Perilous Vault (3.5) / / / /
22) Waste Not (3.5) / / / /
23) Hornet Queen (3)
24) Soul of Innistrad (3) /
25) Soul of Shandalar (3) /
26) Soul of Theros (3) /
27) Stoke the Flames (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
Stoke the Flames and Hornet Queen rose above the $3 level, while Polymorphist's Jest fell below, making 27 cards worth opening in a booster pack - and on the tally.
Wow, what an incredible set. Despite being born in the shadow of the giant Khans of Tarkir, or perhaps BECAUSE of that, the expected value of a box of M15 is far above what most buyers can get it for. Normally that means players (and dealers) will buy and open boxes until that opportunity is used up (aka "arbitrage" in financial terms). I think what's happening now is buyers are pouring all spare money into Khans, to get fetchlands, and M15's price continues to inflate as supply drops. A box contains about $100 in value, which is above even the excellent JiN and Theros sets. Khans is top set in print at $120ish (wow!) and Conspiracy is the worst at about $60.
Nissa has held tight between 35 and 40 since release and remains there now. Rabblemaster, a card that wasn't even worth $2 a few weeks ago, has shot up to $20! Can that last? Is it really a better card than Thoughtseize? If you're looking to sell, this might be the point for Rabblemaster (although it could go a BIT higher before it comes down). Garruk, Ajani, Jace, Liliana, and Chandra cooled... while the painlands shot up, some even doubling since my last update! The rare 6/6 trample for fell less than the mythic 6/6 trample for , putting the rare in front by a tie-break. Hornet Queen (huh?) and Stoke the Flames (wow!) both jumped from $1 to $3 recently - one likely from casual demand and the other likely from Standard demand.
The set will continue to be under-opened. If you're looking for value (aside from Khans) this is where it's at right now. Khans will likely have long term appeal more so than M15, but it shouldn't be overlooked in the short term. It's already one of the most valuable sets printed in the past several years.
I'm in the middle of a move in my personal life, so I've been a little behind on my tally updates this past week. It may continue that way for another week or so. Thanks for understanding. I'll have my Khans singles (and the associated tally) up in a few days.
.
Conversely, I think Nissa will be headed down soon. She is very popular in Green Devotion, but you rarely need more than one of her. Also, Sarkhan may be a better choice, further cutting into her slice of the metagame. I'm considering selling one of my copies while she's still expensive.
Innistrad-RTR
UWR Flash: 7-1, 1 FNM Win-A-Box
Rakdos Aggro: 20-8
UW Flash: 11-5
Boros Aggro: 3-1
Jund: 42-12-3, 4 TNM Win-A-Box, 2 Koopa Standard IQs, Gatecrash Game Day Champion, M14 Game Day Champion
RTR - Theros
RDW 6-0 1 TNM Win-A-Box
Esper Control 7-4
Boros Burn 3-1
RW Devotion 3-1
Monoblack Devotion 8-4
Perilous Vault & Hornet Queen just doubled overnight to $3 to $7.
.
I'm so high, and I'm not comin' down:
1) Nissa Worldwaker (34) / / / / /
2) Goblin Rabblemaster (18) / / /
3) Garruk Apex Predator (15) / / / / /
4) Ajani Steadfast (12) / / / / /
5) Battlefield Forge (9) / / / / /
6) Jace the Living Guildpact (8) / / / /
7) Liliana Vess (8) / / / / /
8) Perilous Vault (8) / / / / /
9) Sliver Hivelord (8) / / / / /
10) Chandra Pyromaster (7.5) / / / / /
11) Llanowar Wastes (7.5) / / / / /
12) Chord of Calling (7) / / / / /
13) Shivan Reef (7) / / / / /
14) Urborg Tomb of Yawgmoth (5.5) / / / / /
15) Hornet Queen (5) /
16) Yavimaya Coast (5) / / / / /
17) Caves of Koilos (4.5) / / / / /
18) Scuttling Doom Engine (4.5) / / / / /
19) Genesis Hydra (4) / / / / /
20) Sliver Hive (4) / / / / /
21) Soul of New Phyrexia (4) / / / / /
22) Stoke the Flames (4) /
23) Chasm Skulker (3.5) / /
24) Waste Not (3) / / / / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
The Souls of Innistrad, Shandalar, and Theros fell below the $3 mark, leaving 24 cards worth opening in a booster pack - and on the tally.
Plenty of hot cards right now, from the uncommon Stoke, to all the painlands, to recent jumpers like Perilous Vault and Hornet Queen. Urborg is seeing renewed Standard play and a price boost as well. The set overall continues to be one of the highest valued core sets printed, and is currently the 2nd highest expected box value amongst in-print sets (KoT being first of course).
In regards to how I gauge expected box value (EBV), I'll do a longer discussion about that soon. In short, several websites now do the calculation based on various metrics. I find the ones I think are most accurate, check them often, compared it to what I'm seeing happening on eBay and here in this forum, and roll that information into a number. But to make it really simple for now, check this link. The site is one of the best for calculating EBV, and if you're only going to check one, that's probably it. Then again, it depends on your needs. That one works pretty good for me. I also like Jeff's posts on the subject. He discusses EBV occasionally here in these threads and does a pretty solid calculation of his own.
Where do you see the set's value going in the next few months? Has Genesis Hydra failed to impress? Chasm Skulker looks like the hype was short lived, too. Can the painlands maintain this strength? Is Goblin Rabblemaster sustainable at $18? How much play is it getting in older formats? What card in the set do you personally think is great, that you feel is overlooked and should be played (and valued) more?
Have a great weekend
.
Goblin Rabblemaster looks like following the same trajectory as Boros Reckoner. I don't think it will drop under $12 again while it's legal in standard, but it will be down below $4 post rotation quick smart.
Pain Lands fix your mana and enter the battlefield untapped, and unlike the Fetchlands are each in two Clans' colours. I think their price may even tick up.
I claim no ability to judge what will become the in-demand card in the short term, but post rotation I'd expect Sliver Hive and Sliver Hivelord to rise steadily and treble their prices within 3 years (barring reprints of course).
Have a good week-end yourself
(Perilous Vault and Stoke the Flames jumped by featuring strongly in the recent Pro Tour webcast matches)
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Top valued rares/mythics:
Nissa Worldwaker: $28
Goblin Rabblemaster: $15
Ajani Steadfast: $10.50
Garruk Apex Predator: $10.50
Battlefield Forge: $7.50
Liliana Vess: $7.50
Shivan Reef: $7
Chandra Pyromaster: $7
Llanowar Wastes: $6.50
Perilous Vault: $6.50
Jace the Living Guildpact: $6.50
Yavimaya Coast: $5
Sliver Hivelord: $5.00
Chord of Calling: $4.50
Urborg Tomb of Yawgmoth: $4.50
Stoke the Flames: $4 (UNCOMMON)
Hornet Queen: $3.50
Scuttling Doom Engine: $3.50
Soul of New Phyrexia: $3.50
Genesis Hydra: $2.50
Caves of Koilos: $2.50
Everything else is less than $2.
Total value of set singles:
Mythics: $90
Rares: $82
Uncommon/common set: $8
Total set value: $180
Overall average box value:
Mythics: $90/15= $6/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $27
Rares: $82/53= $1.55/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $49
Uncommon/common set = $8 x 1.3 = $10
Foils: $4
Overall Average Box Value: $90
Approx value on ebay: $85/box
Sellable singles value after 20% in fees: $68/box
For a core set, magic 2015 is holding up rather well. A $90 box value is nothing to scoff at as far as a regular standard magic set goes. However compared to khans, there really is no comparison, Khans of Tarkir, for now (and likely into the future) continues to be far ahead in value both in what it would cost to buy the singles from an average box as well as selling the singles on ebay for example from an average box.
Unfortunately I don't have time for further singles commentary, so I will have to leave it at that for now. Anyhow, enjoy the update, hopefully some will find it useful :).
Yes.
The same thing happened to M14 cards. This to me indicates that nobody wants to buy it. This is probably the main reason Wizards wants to cut core sets not that they would come out and say it like that.
True, M14 was warming in Sept, hot in Oct, and then stable for a while before cooling.
But JiN had a similar pattern, so it isn't just core sets that can do that.
Also, I don't think it means nobody wants to buy it. In fact, with the value of singles in an unopened box so high, and unopened boxes still in print and cheap, it looks very attractive to players and dealers. I'm still opening M15, happily.
That said, I think painlands are about as pricey as they'll get. M15 isn't going to keep going up and up forever.
.
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(Signature courtesy of Argetlam of Hakai Studios
Yeah, maybe you weren't paying as close attention to M14 as you are to M15? If you'd like, you can always go back and check the Running Tally threads for any set in the past several years, to see what I was posting, and what others were posting, at various times. For example, here is M14 exactly one year ago. The set was hot, box value was high, several singles were in hot demand and even a few uncommons were noteworthy.
Then if you read further you see in November things seemed to be cooling a bit, and overall it went down once 2014 hit, except Mutavault rising to $30 and staying there until rotation.
So yeah, if history repeats (or at least rhymes) we should see M15 settle soon, and like I said, painlands have no business staying above $10
.
Yeah, maybe you weren't paying as close attention to M14 as you are to M15? If you'd like, you can always go back and check the Running Tally threads for any set in the past several years, to see what I was posting, and what others were posting, at various times. For example, here is M14 exactly one year ago. The set was hot, box value was high, several singles were in hot demand and even a few uncommons were noteworthy.
Then if you read further you see in November things seemed to be cooling a bit, and overall it went down once 2014 hit, except Mutavault rising to $30 and staying there until rotation.
So yeah, if history repeats (or at least rhymes) we should see M15 settle soon, and like I said, painlands have no business staying above $10
.
I think there was just a big crunch as people scrambled to build the decks they want to play over the coming months.
Now that those decks have been built demand is starting to fall.
Playset prices on Ebay have taken a sharp downturn over the last week for almost everything I have checked. I'm not saying the trend will hold I'm just saying I think it will.