I tend to agree with the speculators. How much good is it finding out about a gain after it happened? It's done, you missed it, but now you know about it (since everyone else already saw it on tcgplayer). Knowing when something is starting to tick up or down is good, but without the speculation its all just old news and of no use to anyone.
In another note. [EDIT: snip] Right now the EV for the whole set is so high you could buy a box and profit just selling it all back at buylist prices (assuming $100 or less for a box) and there's no way that's going to last, because it just means people are going to open a ton more product until the market balances. There's going to be a major price collapse for origins very soon. Normal EV sell for a box of a current set is around $65. Origins is over double that off my rough estimate.
EDIT: had a big thing in there talking about Jace, but the original I was referring to was a few pages back and it really wasn't important to the point as a whole.
I just did a quick check myself on tcgplayer (looking at the lower end of NM pricing with low shipping) and got the following for the set:
Total set value:
Mythics: $145
Rares: $80
Uncommon/Common set: $8
Total set value from singles: $233
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $9.7/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $43.7
Rares: $1.5/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $47
Uncommon/Common sets: $8/set x 1.3 sets/box = $10.3
Foils: $5/box
Total Overall average box value: $106/box (Fairly typical for an initial after-tournament spike evaluation for a set this early in the going).
The spikes in the cards have made it the new best box in standard to go with, which will inevitably lead to more of the set being opened in the near term, which will increase supply, and cause the values to drop (especially on the less played cards, but inevitably on just about everything). Plus you have to factor in the addition of MTGO redemption in about a month hitting the market which will further reduce values (Especially on the mythics). For the time being though, if one can get boxes cheap enough there is at least a small allowance to make some profit, but otherwise, I would pass unless you are getting boxes for $90 or less.
You can get it much cheaper than that. A lot of stores on TCGPlayer have it for $8-9 with shipping. To be honest, the spike has only doubled the card's price and it is still continuing to go down.
Oh, no chance I would buy in at $15. It's not sustainable for a card that has not had any real success as yet. I was just quite surprised at the restock price. Oh, and per an email I received, I did get the 4 copies I ordered through TCG Player during the buyout, so that's good enough for me.
Whoops, I missed this - there is a "Rate My Box/Pack/Pull" thread in Magic General. There is not one here in Market Street (or at least not an Official one). Market Street already has a lot of stickies, though.
See the Unwritten has gone up $2 over the past 2 weeks probably in anticipation of Eldrazi in BFZ. I'm not sure exactly how this will pan out especially if the rare Eldrazi have "cast" rather than ETB triggers like on Oblivion Sower.
See the Unwritten has gone up $2 over the past 2 weeks probably in anticipation of Eldrazi in BFZ. I'm not sure exactly how this will pan out especially if the rare Eldrazi have "cast" rather than ETB triggers like on Oblivion Sower.
It jumped awhile back from bulk/$0.50 when Battle for Zendikar was announced. But, yes, it's trended another +$2 since seeing play in recent top8 R/G Devotion/Ramp lists (first one popped up at a SC Open 3 weeks ago as a 4-of).
I don't think ETB triggers matter. Summoning Trap was played quite a bit with Emrakul/Ulamog/Kozilek all of who also had the "cast" rather than ETB. What's going to matter is if there is something close to or equal in power to Emrakul and adequate ramp like there was back in the day with Summoning Trap. See the Unwritten can be much, much more impactful than Summoning Trap too by digging deeper and upside of 2 creatures but lacks the "anti-counterspell" protection. It did some nutty things on camera at that SC Open top8 with dragons... can only image what it can do with 8+/8+ Eldrazi.
At the very least it should go up even more from casuals if there isn't adequate ramp/Eldrazi to be competitive.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
See the Unwritten has gone up $2 over the past 2 weeks probably in anticipation of Eldrazi in BFZ. I'm not sure exactly how this will pan out especially if the rare Eldrazi have "cast" rather than ETB triggers like on Oblivion Sower.
It jumped awhile back from bulk/$0.50 when Battle for Zendikar was announced. But, yes, it's trended another +$2 since seeing play in recent top8 R/G Devotion/Ramp lists (first one popped up at a SC Open 3 weeks ago as a 4-of).
I don't think ETB triggers matter. Summoning Trap was played quite a bit with Emrakul/Ulamog/Kozilek all of who also had the "cast" rather than ETB. What's going to matter is if there is something close to or equal in power to Emrakul and adequate ramp like there was back in the day with Summoning Trap. See the Unwritten can be much, much more impactful than Summoning Trap too by digging deeper and upside of 2 creatures but lacks the "anti-counterspell" protection. It did some nutty things on camera at that SC Open top8 with dragons... can only image what it can do with 8+/8+ Eldrazi.
At the very least it should go up even more from casuals if there isn't adequate ramp/Eldrazi to be competitive.
Agreed, See the Unwritten did spike a little bit when BFZ was announced but I think it cooled off because it was still sometime away at that point. The reason I mentioned why ETB might be important this time around is because Oblivion Sower could be hinting that Annihilator won't be making a return as a mechanic. Sower is a mythic rare from the Duel Deck that's supposed to highlight new mechanics for BFZ and Annihilator isn't there which is a little worrisome. I'm pretty sure all the original Eldrazi themselves had some degree of Annihilator. Even ignoring the Eldrazi, Zendikar Standard had the Core Set Titans to work with as well. If Sower is a sign of things to come, I don't think a vanilla 5/8 for 6 will cut deep in the format.
I don't really follow the Standard scene that well so I'm not sure if See the Unwritten is going up because it posted good results recently. Otherwise with BFZ next in line to be released, See the Unwritten is a somewhat safe speculative card for taking advantage of the Eldrazi or other big creatures in BFZ.
I don't think anyone honestly expected annihilator to be back. People are more focused on the possibility of getting 2 10+/10+ dudes off the spell that may have various forms of indestructibility or evasion. All the old eldrazi were cast triggers as well, so that can't be a surprise either.
Evolutionary Leap got some camera time at San Diego GP. It's on my personal watch list for Standard, but it is not valuable in multiples so I don't think it will ever be a "huge" gainer, just something that might be $4-$5 at some point instead of the $2 that it is now. But, I'm wondering if it has seen any play in Modern. I don't follow Modern, but sense that this is the sort of effect that might be exploited in Modern. If the card gets some Modern play, that obviously helps its value.
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Foil Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx jumped up to $40 TCG-mid. I guess people are stocking up for rotation?
Sees play in modern Elves.
Was a 3 of in the deck that won GP Charlotte. The deck is the real deal.
Standard card but most certainly what you're seeing here is modern demand. Always good to ask though, not everybody can be familiar with all formats all of the time.
GP Charlotte was literally two months ago though, there doesn't seem to be a reason why a card triples-quadruples in price, practically overnight, 2 months AFTER performing...If it had been a slow and steady climb over the last 8 weeks that would be more understandable.
Foil Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx jumped up to $40 TCG-mid. I guess people are stocking up for rotation?
Sees play in modern Elves.
Was a 3 of in the deck that won GP Charlotte. The deck is the real deal.
Standard card but most certainly what you're seeing here is modern demand. Always good to ask though, not everybody can be familiar with all formats all of the time.
As someone who picked up many Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, both foil and non-foil, this card is just meant to go up at some time. It's the only land that does what it does, it can give colorless mana, and should be a staple in most EDH or Tiny Leader decks (unless they are multi-color, color-hungry decks). I fully expect this card to reach the current level of Cavern of Souls someday, while Cavern goes up higher because it is used more often.
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As someone who picked up many Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, both foil and non-foil, this card is just meant to go up at some time. It's the only land that does what it does, it can give colorless mana, and should be a staple in most EDH or Tiny Leader decks (unless they are multi-color, color-hungry decks). I fully expect this card to reach the current level of Cavern of Souls someday, while Cavern goes up higher because it is used more often.
This card is definitely not Cavern of Souls. Cavern is used as a 3-4-of in multiple decks across Modern (Elves, Merfolk, Goblins), Legacy (D&T, MUD, Merfolk, Goblins), AND Vintage (Stax, Merfolk, Goblins), and even sees occasional play as a 1-2 of in random not-Tribal decks (Amulet Bloom, Twin, Miracles) as a way to beat counter-heavy Control.
Nykthos is played in one Modern list of real note (Elves), one extremely fringe Modern list (Devotion-Tooth and Nail), and in random even-more-fringe Legacy lists (of which we've seen zero place in 2015).
They're both highly popular in Commander. Nykthos maybe a slight bit more, but honestly you can run Cavern in just about any Commander deck and it's not a bad choice.
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I don't know about those numbers. Theros obviously had a larger print run than Innistrad because the game is constantly growing, but we're probably talking 10-20% larger. Avacyn was also opened less than Innistrad/Theros were, but I can't imagine it was more than 50% less. Throw in the Clash Pack printings and we're *maybe* talking a total of 3x more Nykthosi than Caverns. 5x seems far too high, and 10x is just outrageous.
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I just did a quick check myself on tcgplayer (looking at the lower end of NM pricing with low shipping) and got the following for the set:
Total set value:
Mythics: $145
Rares: $80
Uncommon/Common set: $8
Total set value from singles: $233
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $9.7/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $43.7
Rares: $1.5/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $47
Uncommon/Common sets: $8/set x 1.3 sets/box = $10.3
Foils: $5/box
Total Overall average box value: $106/box (Fairly typical for an initial after-tournament spike evaluation for a set this early in the going).
The spikes in the cards have made it the new best box in standard to go with, which will inevitably lead to more of the set being opened in the near term, which will increase supply, and cause the values to drop (especially on the less played cards, but inevitably on just about everything). Plus you have to factor in the addition of MTGO redemption in about a month hitting the market which will further reduce values (Especially on the mythics). For the time being though, if one can get boxes cheap enough there is at least a small allowance to make some profit, but otherwise, I would pass unless you are getting boxes for $90 or less.
Booster Box EV for recent sets: (Set - low, mid)
KTK - $60.64, $104.20 (http://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/239/expectedvalue)
FRF - $41.39, $84.79 (http://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/243/expectedvalue)
DTK - $52.15, $101.82 (http://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/247/expectedvalue)
ORI - $89.83, $152.42 (http://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/249/expectedvalue)
For comparison heres a box of Modern Master 2015
MM15 - $141.63, $206.92 (http://www.mtgstocks.com/sets/248/expectedvalue)
You can't really expect that Origins can hold an EV that's > 50% above normal for long.
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Oh, no chance I would buy in at $15. It's not sustainable for a card that has not had any real success as yet. I was just quite surprised at the restock price. Oh, and per an email I received, I did get the 4 copies I ordered through TCG Player during the buyout, so that's good enough for me.
I bought 25 Carol Keeps a week ago... whoo hoo. Was thinking about doing the same with demonic pact and exquisite firecraft but didn't.
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It jumped awhile back from bulk/$0.50 when Battle for Zendikar was announced. But, yes, it's trended another +$2 since seeing play in recent top8 R/G Devotion/Ramp lists (first one popped up at a SC Open 3 weeks ago as a 4-of).
I don't think ETB triggers matter. Summoning Trap was played quite a bit with Emrakul/Ulamog/Kozilek all of who also had the "cast" rather than ETB. What's going to matter is if there is something close to or equal in power to Emrakul and adequate ramp like there was back in the day with Summoning Trap. See the Unwritten can be much, much more impactful than Summoning Trap too by digging deeper and upside of 2 creatures but lacks the "anti-counterspell" protection. It did some nutty things on camera at that SC Open top8 with dragons... can only image what it can do with 8+/8+ Eldrazi.
At the very least it should go up even more from casuals if there isn't adequate ramp/Eldrazi to be competitive.
Agreed, See the Unwritten did spike a little bit when BFZ was announced but I think it cooled off because it was still sometime away at that point. The reason I mentioned why ETB might be important this time around is because Oblivion Sower could be hinting that Annihilator won't be making a return as a mechanic. Sower is a mythic rare from the Duel Deck that's supposed to highlight new mechanics for BFZ and Annihilator isn't there which is a little worrisome. I'm pretty sure all the original Eldrazi themselves had some degree of Annihilator. Even ignoring the Eldrazi, Zendikar Standard had the Core Set Titans to work with as well. If Sower is a sign of things to come, I don't think a vanilla 5/8 for 6 will cut deep in the format.
I don't really follow the Standard scene that well so I'm not sure if See the Unwritten is going up because it posted good results recently. Otherwise with BFZ next in line to be released, See the Unwritten is a somewhat safe speculative card for taking advantage of the Eldrazi or other big creatures in BFZ.
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Sees play in modern Elves.
Was a 3 of in the deck that won GP Charlotte. The deck is the real deal.
Standard card but most certainly what you're seeing here is modern demand. Always good to ask though, not everybody can be familiar with all formats all of the time.
As someone who picked up many Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, both foil and non-foil, this card is just meant to go up at some time. It's the only land that does what it does, it can give colorless mana, and should be a staple in most EDH or Tiny Leader decks (unless they are multi-color, color-hungry decks). I fully expect this card to reach the current level of Cavern of Souls someday, while Cavern goes up higher because it is used more often.
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Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)This card is definitely not Cavern of Souls. Cavern is used as a 3-4-of in multiple decks across Modern (Elves, Merfolk, Goblins), Legacy (D&T, MUD, Merfolk, Goblins), AND Vintage (Stax, Merfolk, Goblins), and even sees occasional play as a 1-2 of in random not-Tribal decks (Amulet Bloom, Twin, Miracles) as a way to beat counter-heavy Control.
Nykthos is played in one Modern list of real note (Elves), one extremely fringe Modern list (Devotion-Tooth and Nail), and in random even-more-fringe Legacy lists (of which we've seen zero place in 2015).
They're both highly popular in Commander. Nykthos maybe a slight bit more, but honestly you can run Cavern in just about any Commander deck and it's not a bad choice.
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