So, I have a pool of ~$40K in RL cards - wondering whether there is any point in holding them over just liquidating and dropping back into the stock market. Here is a list, if the type of RL card makes any difference...
It would feel bad to see cards spike after selling them... but can the RL really keep doing this?
So, I have a pool of ~$40K in RL cards - wondering whether there is any point in holding them over just liquidating and dropping back into the stock market. Here is a list, if the type of RL card makes any difference...
It would feel bad to see cards spike after selling them... but can the RL really keep doing this?
Well, I mean, you've got the bones of quite a few Legacy/Vintage decks, plus the makings of a lot of EDH decks. If you're never going to play with them, you can do better in the stock market or with another "real" financial investment. I sorted by average cost, and especially page one, those cards aren't spiking any time soon. Some of the ones on page 2, maybe could do something nutty still. A handful on page 3, maybe, and those are the ones that are in the $10 range, so it might not be worth your time to sell them now.
It's up to you, but if you're not playing with them (or planning on playing with them) then I would sell.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Along with many mods, I've moved shop over to MTGNexus. Come check us out!
It's up to you, but if you're not playing with them (or planning on playing with them) then I would sell.
Yep, these are undecked.
I think I might be asking the wrong question with the thread title.
As background, I am not getting any utility from them now, other than having them "just in case." But if I DID need a playset of U Seas, I'm fairly certain I wouldn't fork over $1800 for them. [Gosh, this hobby is expensive.]
So I really SHOULD be asking - how do I get over the irrational fear of not having something I don't need? I mean, I just acknowledged that I don't value them as high as their current price...
So I really SHOULD be asking - how do I get over the irrational fear of not having something I don't need? I mean, I just acknowledged that I don't value them as high as their current price...
That's a great question, and one that many of us should be asking ourselves.
I think that the answer (or at least, part of the answer) is: move to MODO. Legacy and Vintage on MODO are dirt-cheap compared to paper, and I'm convinced that's where the future of the formats will live. Once we're more comfortable playing online, it'll be easier to say "Oh, I don't need to keep a set of Power around - I can just play digitally."
That's just a theory, though, and I've certainly not put that into practice. Love to see some other opinions.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Along with many mods, I've moved shop over to MTGNexus. Come check us out!
This is a question I've spent much time thinking about and researching. Here is my final answer:
Although mtg as an investment can offer comparable or even greater returns than the stock market, because of
substantial differences in risk, growth, and liquidity the comparison is basically apples to oranges.
Long story short, mtg can provide you with gains in excess of stock market gains, but with quite a few strings attached.
First a few caveats: I'm not talking about any individual stock. There is no way to generalize about the performance of any single particular stock. Instead I'm talking about the market as a whole, aka investing in index funds. These funds have returned 10% a year compounded in the past.
The question then is does mtg provide gains in excess of 10% a year? The answer is definitively yes. Look at the expansion of reserve list cards such as the power 9 and dual lands. A NM unlimited black lotus could be had in 2003 for 400 dollars. Today a NM lotus would fetch about 8k easily. (I'm being conservative)
Taken conservatively, the growth rate of the black lotus since 2003 has been 22% a year, more than double the rate of the stock market, per year for the past 15 years!!
Let's go even more conservative. Let's say 8000 is too optimistic. I'm going to use CFBs buylist price of 5500. That would still imply a growth rate of 19% a year compounded. If anyone wants to check my math, 5500/400 = 13.75. the 15th root of 13.75 implies 19% compounded. Astounding!!
No matter how you cut it, key mtg cards have absolutely crushed, and continue to crush the stock market returns.
However, nothing comes for free in this life. What do you have give up in order to get such awesome gains?
1. Extremely low liqudity. Honestly you might go months, even a one or two years before finding a buyer for your cards at the right price.
2. Prolonged downturns in the market. Just because the average rate of growth is 19% a year for the lotus doesn't mean you should expect 19% growth in any given year. Prices of even reserved list cards have undergone years of price stagnation, only to spike in price dramatically over short periods of intense fervor or popularity.
3. Exposure to risk of mtg growth. MTG is a business. Like any business, it can grow; it can fail; While reserve list cards are far more protected in price from MTG failing as a business, there is no question that prolonged growth almost certainly depends on growth of MTG in popularity. Your fate of mtg as an investment is tied to the popularity of the game.
Counter-argument to point 1:
As a general rule of markets, higher liquidity can be "purchased" by fire saleing your cards. Can't find a buyer for your lotus at 8k? Sell it for 6k. Additionally, the option of the major vendors offering buylists effectively establishes a lower bound on the price of the card, and establishes a liquid market for all intents and purposes, albeit at "below market" prices.
Counter-argument to point 2:
Stock markets similarly undergo prolonged periods of stagnation. I believe the longest period of time one could have purchased diversified stocks and not made any money is 16 years. That is, if you had purchased at the height of a market bubble, and had to endure both a multiyear crash and recovery, you could have waited as long as 16 years for the market to recover. In that sense, unbelievably, the market for mtg cards is superior to stocks.
Counter-argument to point 3:
In one sense, yes demand for mtg reserve list cards is tied to its game usage. But among all mtg cards, reserve list cards hold a special place. The mighty power 9 is in the middle of transitioning from game card, to antique collectible status. Like the honus wagner baseball cards, babe ruth paraphenalia, Mickey mantle's 1952 rookie card, Superman Action comics, X-Men #1, some of these have entered into pop cultural legend.
Magic was the first collectible card game of its kind, and Wizards has done well in recognizing that that power 9 are more than mere cards to be purchased to be stuff in players decks. They're conversation pieces, notables among the legendary mythos of antique collectibles. They're the icons that bring pop cultural awareness to mtg. They are the reason every now and then, an article is published about the craziness about the MTG market.
If they do successfully enter into an antique collectibles status in the greater pop culture, their price becomes less dependent upon the popularity and survival of mtg in any given year/
to be continued later with points 4 and 5.
4. The risk of the reserve list being abolished
5. The rise of counterfeits.
also please PM me if you are interested in my continued analysis. This stuff does take awhile...and there's more incentive for me to write more if people are actually, well..interested.
It would feel bad to see cards spike after selling them... but can the RL really keep doing this?
It's up to you, but if you're not playing with them (or planning on playing with them) then I would sell.
I think I might be asking the wrong question with the thread title.
As background, I am not getting any utility from them now, other than having them "just in case." But if I DID need a playset of U Seas, I'm fairly certain I wouldn't fork over $1800 for them. [Gosh, this hobby is expensive.]
So I really SHOULD be asking - how do I get over the irrational fear of not having something I don't need? I mean, I just acknowledged that I don't value them as high as their current price...
That's a great question, and one that many of us should be asking ourselves.
I think that the answer (or at least, part of the answer) is: move to MODO. Legacy and Vintage on MODO are dirt-cheap compared to paper, and I'm convinced that's where the future of the formats will live. Once we're more comfortable playing online, it'll be easier to say "Oh, I don't need to keep a set of Power around - I can just play digitally."
That's just a theory, though, and I've certainly not put that into practice. Love to see some other opinions.
Although mtg as an investment can offer comparable or even greater returns than the stock market, because of
substantial differences in risk, growth, and liquidity the comparison is basically apples to oranges.
Long story short, mtg can provide you with gains in excess of stock market gains, but with quite a few strings attached.
First a few caveats: I'm not talking about any individual stock. There is no way to generalize about the performance of any single particular stock. Instead I'm talking about the market as a whole, aka investing in index funds. These funds have returned 10% a year compounded in the past.
The question then is does mtg provide gains in excess of 10% a year? The answer is definitively yes. Look at the expansion of reserve list cards such as the power 9 and dual lands. A NM unlimited black lotus could be had in 2003 for 400 dollars. Today a NM lotus would fetch about 8k easily. (I'm being conservative)
Taken conservatively, the growth rate of the black lotus since 2003 has been 22% a year, more than double the rate of the stock market, per year for the past 15 years!!
Let's go even more conservative. Let's say 8000 is too optimistic. I'm going to use CFBs buylist price of 5500. That would still imply a growth rate of 19% a year compounded. If anyone wants to check my math, 5500/400 = 13.75. the 15th root of 13.75 implies 19% compounded. Astounding!!
No matter how you cut it, key mtg cards have absolutely crushed, and continue to crush the stock market returns.
However, nothing comes for free in this life. What do you have give up in order to get such awesome gains?
1. Extremely low liqudity. Honestly you might go months, even a one or two years before finding a buyer for your cards at the right price.
2. Prolonged downturns in the market. Just because the average rate of growth is 19% a year for the lotus doesn't mean you should expect 19% growth in any given year. Prices of even reserved list cards have undergone years of price stagnation, only to spike in price dramatically over short periods of intense fervor or popularity.
3. Exposure to risk of mtg growth. MTG is a business. Like any business, it can grow; it can fail; While reserve list cards are far more protected in price from MTG failing as a business, there is no question that prolonged growth almost certainly depends on growth of MTG in popularity. Your fate of mtg as an investment is tied to the popularity of the game.
Counter-argument to point 1:
As a general rule of markets, higher liquidity can be "purchased" by fire saleing your cards. Can't find a buyer for your lotus at 8k? Sell it for 6k. Additionally, the option of the major vendors offering buylists effectively establishes a lower bound on the price of the card, and establishes a liquid market for all intents and purposes, albeit at "below market" prices.
Counter-argument to point 2:
Stock markets similarly undergo prolonged periods of stagnation. I believe the longest period of time one could have purchased diversified stocks and not made any money is 16 years. That is, if you had purchased at the height of a market bubble, and had to endure both a multiyear crash and recovery, you could have waited as long as 16 years for the market to recover. In that sense, unbelievably, the market for mtg cards is superior to stocks.
Counter-argument to point 3:
In one sense, yes demand for mtg reserve list cards is tied to its game usage. But among all mtg cards, reserve list cards hold a special place. The mighty power 9 is in the middle of transitioning from game card, to antique collectible status. Like the honus wagner baseball cards, babe ruth paraphenalia, Mickey mantle's 1952 rookie card, Superman Action comics, X-Men #1, some of these have entered into pop cultural legend.
Magic was the first collectible card game of its kind, and Wizards has done well in recognizing that that power 9 are more than mere cards to be purchased to be stuff in players decks. They're conversation pieces, notables among the legendary mythos of antique collectibles. They're the icons that bring pop cultural awareness to mtg. They are the reason every now and then, an article is published about the craziness about the MTG market.
If they do successfully enter into an antique collectibles status in the greater pop culture, their price becomes less dependent upon the popularity and survival of mtg in any given year/
to be continued later with points 4 and 5.
4. The risk of the reserve list being abolished
5. The rise of counterfeits.
also please PM me if you are interested in my continued analysis. This stuff does take awhile...and there's more incentive for me to write more if people are actually, well..interested.