Just a friendly note - order what you want to play the first couple of weeks of standard, but watch prices fall off precipitously as people rip open cases to get 1 or 2 expeditions. I've only pre-ordered some fast lands and made a couple of specs - I already regret those. They will not pay off, at least not in any meaningful way.
I predict that Kaladesh will have the lowest overall set value in Standard since the likes of Homelands and Fallen Empires. 30 (!!) ultra mythic rares and fastlands and Chandra means that this set is going to be opened to oblivion. Not because the player base is going to experience exponential growth, but because more spend per person. More cards opened more person. More supply per person. Preordering has always been a not great idea, but I feel like with this set, it is especially true. Look at the trajectory of non-fetches in KTK and non-Gideons/Kalitas in BFZ/OGW. Now envision a synergistic set that has the qualities that drove sales for those sets and imagine more sales. A lot of dollar rares. A lot.
There is a small chance I could be wrong - that the set will fail because people are not enticed by the 1 in 144 chance of opening one of the 30 available ultra mythics. But I don't think we're there yet - maybe in a year or two people will get tired of it. I already am, but that's because I went through the return to Zendikar block and opened 1 *****ty expedition. The allure wears off quickly if you're not the one opening these things.
This seems a little early to call. The lands seem worth it if you need them now for modern. A few cheap artifacts are spiking nicely or not yet. Not sure if this set is really going to be opened heavily. Its not innistrad or Ravinica good. I can't tell if you saying this cause you want the pre-orders for yourself or are trying to raise hype in an underhanded ploy. Your post just leaves one questioning the hidden agenda. To many have said this set sucks, but not all of it has been released. I agree with you that vehicles (Mechanics) are weird and creates issues with board wipes (i wanted that to be manna rock, not a vehicle, yet).
New UW plainswalker.......ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED! Magic community response...takes the whole set in one hand...wipes their butt and hands it back complaining about no tarmogoyf powered cards. Come on, give wizards credit for thinking of something new.
I really had second thoughts about posting because I try to avoid putting myself out there. I do not post with an agenda and I laid my cards on the table in terms of how much/little I have invested in this set so far. I thought, however, that some players have not been around since BFZ or KTK and have not seen preorder prices crash to almost nothing. Well, I think this set will be an order of magnitude worse than either one of those sets, in terms of packs opened per player. Fastland prices have already dropped by about 10% since the Kaladesh Expeditions were announced. We may see the lesser played fastlands dip to $2 or lower.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
I planned on waiting for Chandra to drop as I thought 50 was ridiculous. Now that the Masterpiece series has been introduced, I can probably expect another 10 to be shaved off.
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Homelands? That's a little excessive. As for the fastlands, we have seen rare dual land cycles get to the $2.00 range recently so that's not out of the question. Every experienced player knows to be careful preordering singles- there is no secret about the downward pressure after the set is released. However, Homelands and Fallen Empires? Get real dude. Besides, I don't trust anyone's evaluation of this set yet because: Standard Rotation and Bizarre Mechanics.
I'm glad if the single market is on the low end. The only reason to be mad is if you're a business or a speculator (you said you're mad about expected speculation losses). I'm glad that budget players that buy packs have a shot at getting something valuable to trade away for staples. I won't consider holding onto or speculating on the value if I open a Masterpiece card, as a high-value card I don't need is not worth it for me.
Well, this is basically a fall set with the added benefit of expeditions packed in. It's likely going to be the most opened set in MTG history and I'd fully expect everything to drop like a rock except for the few cards that people need right off the bat, such as Chandra, Torch of Defiance. However, we are looking at something like Gideon, Ally of Zendikar with her, so I'd expect her price to spike after the first tournament weekend, then drop off rapidly as the set gets opened like crazy. Anything NOT chandra is going to be pulling a Nissa, Voice of Zendikar impression.
Basically, if someone really wants Chandra they should wait until the set is done getting spoiled, then preorder her. Otherwise if someone doesn't need her right away there's no point buying at even 40 usd since she will drop to below 20 later on. She'd need to find a serious home in legacy or modern to hold her current price tag.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Homelands? That's a little excessive. As for the fastlands, we have seen rare dual land cycles get to the $2.00 range recently so that's not out of the question. Every experienced player knows to be careful preordering singles- there is no secret about the downward pressure after the set is released. However, Homelands and Fallen Empires? Get real dude. Besides, I don't trust anyone's evaluation of this set yet because: Standard Rotation and Bizarre Mechanics.
I'm glad if the single market is on the low end. The only reason to be mad is if you're a business or a speculator (you said you're mad about expected speculation losses). I'm glad that budget players that buy packs have a shot at getting something valuable to trade away for staples. I won't consider holding onto or speculating on the value if I open a Masterpiece card, as a high-value card I don't need is not worth it for me.
I agree that dual lands currently have a track record of getting in the $1.50 range in the past few sets. However, those dual lands had zero eternal implications (beyond EDH). This is the first dual land set with eternal implications since KTK and fetches were definitely not under $2 during that entire run. I fully expected even the janky ones to stay above $3. I am no longer sure.
Homelands may have been a bit of a hyperbole, but it's in the right direction. Overprinting is overprinting. Before this set, overprinting meant languishing on the shelves. WOTC has a system in place to prevent too much of this - printing to "demand." This set, overprinting may be due to raw over-opening. WOTC keeps printing because they think it's organic demand but it's really not. Unexplored territory, IMHO.
Anyways, I wish I hadn't even started this thread now. I really don't give a flip what people do.
Just a friendly note - order what you want to play the first couple of weeks of standard, but watch prices fall off precipitously as people rip open cases to get 1 or 2 expeditions. I've only pre-ordered some fast lands and made a couple of specs - I already regret those. They will not pay off, at least not in any meaningful way.
I predict that Kaladesh will have the lowest overall set value in Standard since the likes of Homelands and Fallen Empires. 30 (!!) ultra mythic rares and fastlands and Chandra means that this set is going to be opened to oblivion. Not because the player base is going to experience exponential growth, but because more spend per person. More cards opened more person. More supply per person. Preordering has always been a not great idea, but I feel like with this set, it is especially true. Look at the trajectory of non-fetches in KTK and non-Gideons/Kalitas in BFZ/OGW. Now envision a synergistic set that has the qualities that drove sales for those sets and imagine more sales. A lot of dollar rares. A lot.
There is a small chance I could be wrong - that the set will fail because people are not enticed by the 1 in 144 chance of opening one of the 30 available ultra mythics. But I don't think we're there yet - maybe in a year or two people will get tired of it. I already am, but that's because I went through the return to Zendikar block and opened 1 *****ty expedition. The allure wears off quickly if you're not the one opening these things.
tldr much more supply, same ol' demand.
I disagree and actually have an article incoming explaining why this set will not be a repeat of Battle for Zendikar. It should be out later today.
As for pre-ordering itself, it is always a gamble, and like gambling at a casino, the house (store) usually wins.
I am amused to see Chandra losing at least 50% of its value within the weeks from now to the beginning of the PT.
The value of the singles will become super low.
But this is not compareable to Homelands.
It is compareable to recent sets, even with differences.
- BFZ cards have almost no value, because they are mostly bad, and they lost a lot due to existence of Expeditions.
- KTK cards have a very low value, compared to their power (Siege Rhino), reason was the existence of Fetchlands
- OGW cards with decent power have a little value, but not much. The value mostly exists because the set is a small one.
Kaladesh with have some cards with a good power level, but the Masterpieces are just a little bit more crazy than the Expeditions, so I expect they will really take over the prices. Like written in the article.
I would argue that this set potentially combines characteristics of all of those sets that caused them to be good selling sets to make one set that outsells them all. And it's a large fall set to boot. Analogies to perfect storms and what-not. But we'll see! The full set hasn't even been spoiled yet. This whole set could end up being hot garbage like BFZ, no one really knows yet.
Just a friendly note - order what you want to play the first couple of weeks of standard, but watch prices fall off precipitously as people rip open cases to get 1 or 2 expeditions. I've only pre-ordered some fast lands and made a couple of specs - I already regret those. They will not pay off, at least not in any meaningful way.
Boohoo the little baby is unhappy because his attempts at becoming a share trader failed. Get over yourself pal, speccing on pre-orders has simply never paid off. The prices for cards have always been at its highest on release. It is not WOTC fault you bought into the baloney train.
WOTC is not really concerned with what you pay for singles. They concern themselves with the amount of sealed product opened. You can bet this will do the same for their profits as the expeditions of Zendikar did.
Moaners act like cheap singles is a bad thing
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Just a friendly note - order what you want to play the first couple of weeks of standard, but watch prices fall off precipitously as people rip open cases to get 1 or 2 expeditions. I've only pre-ordered some fast lands and made a couple of specs - I already regret those. They will not pay off, at least not in any meaningful way.
Boohoo the little baby is unhappy because his attempts at becoming a share trader failed. Get over yourself pal, speccing on pre-orders has simply never paid off. The prices for cards have always been at its highest on release. It is not WOTC fault you bought into the baloney train.
WOTC is not really concerned with what you pay for singles. They concern themselves with the amount of sealed product opened. You can bet this will do the same for their profits as the expeditions of Zendikar did.
Moaners act like cheap singles is a bad thing
Jesus Christ, way to over-react man. Take it down a notch and don't act like an ass.
Obviously the inventions are going to eat up much of the value. someone on another board estimated based on their frequency and the starting SCG prices and quantity SCG must be busting to fulfill the preorders offered, that SCG is expecting to retail about $55 worth of non-invention singles per box, and clearly some of that is ordinary pack foils as usual.
Having a very low value set at the level of card quality here seems unprecedented. The power level seems high relative to recent sets, and many of these are build-around cards that will appear as 3x 4x in decks.
Fallen Empires was overprinted and then nothing new was released for 8 months after that while all older product was long gone, so we were saturated with those cards and they were relatively weak except at common, so not a close comparison.
I'm not gonna lie I intend to buy more packs than I usually would. Not because I necessarily want an Invention but because possibly getting one will be a nice bonus to getting all the sweet stuff in this set.
Preordering is always wrong unless you guess the next spellskite type card correctly, and not every set has one or more of underrated cards like spellskite. The set value will lie in the epic rares as per usual and a few cards outside that like chandra. While the fastlands have modern demand, they don't have legacy or vintage demand like fetches. People know fetches are the closest we're ever getting to the original duals. Not so with fastlands. Wouldn't surprise me if some went to sub $3 in standard, especially the ones that people don't want like how good is the UG land for example.
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I really had second thoughts about posting because I try to avoid putting myself out there. I do not post with an agenda and I laid my cards on the table in terms of how much/little I have invested in this set so far. I thought, however, that some players have not been around since BFZ or KTK and have not seen preorder prices crash to almost nothing. Well, I think this set will be an order of magnitude worse than either one of those sets, in terms of packs opened per player. Fastland prices have already dropped by about 10% since the Kaladesh Expeditions were announced. We may see the lesser played fastlands dip to $2 or lower.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
I don't think there are any mana vault powered cards in this new set, thus your point is faulty. Players will still want the standard legal cards and if you enjoy that; getting a cheap preorder may not be a bad idea. Only the fast lands really interest me. A few of the new artifacts look good, but their CMC is high for affinity. When you post ideas that we should not do anything with this set and have such high negativity, viewers here loose interest in reading/communicating in our forum. You said it, 10 people read this. Why? The reasons are that certain members are negative, rude, lack social skills, and think they are god's gift to magic. Thanks for killing the market street. I am being real, and find your thread just spreading negativity to something new. We need new players and more people buying into the game so we can enjoy it for as long as possible.
"This country (forum) will never fall from an invading force, but instead it will fall from within...."
Lincoln.
In general Preordering is bad because most cards drop in price and never get back to their preorder price. However, there are cards that do go up and there is something to be said about being able to have the cards on day one. Consider it paying a premium to get the cards now rather than waiting. Is the time spent waiting for the cards to drop worth the extra money you spend to have the cards? If so, get the cards. If not, then wait.
There are pieces i am pre-ordering. I find that certain legends in this set in foil will grow in value as time passes for commander purposes. Decisions are based on what format you or I play. Its not that much value, granted, but other formats are growing in interest.
Please pre-order from a reputable website. I almost got the shaft with Boros Reckoner on eBay, but the seller finally sent them when I politely spoke to him.
I really had second thoughts about posting because I try to avoid putting myself out there. I do not post with an agenda and I laid my cards on the table in terms of how much/little I have invested in this set so far. I thought, however, that some players have not been around since BFZ or KTK and have not seen preorder prices crash to almost nothing. Well, I think this set will be an order of magnitude worse than either one of those sets, in terms of packs opened per player. Fastland prices have already dropped by about 10% since the Kaladesh Expeditions were announced. We may see the lesser played fastlands dip to $2 or lower.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
I don't think there are any mana vault powered cards in this new set, thus your point is faulty. Players will still want the standard legal cards and if you enjoy that; getting a cheap preorder may not be a bad idea. Only the fast lands really interest me. A few of the new artifacts look good, but their CMC is high for affinity. When you post ideas that we should not do anything with this set and have such high negativity, viewers here loose interest in reading/communicating in our forum. You said it, 10 people read this. Why? The reasons are that certain members are negative, rude, lack social skills, and think they are god's gift to magic. Thanks for killing the market street. I am being real, and find your thread just spreading negativity to something new. We need new players and more people buying into the game so we can enjoy it for as long as possible.
"This country (forum) will never fall from an invading force, but instead it will fall from within...."
Lincoln.
You should really learn to read before you post. The whole PREMISE of this post is about MANA VAULT being reprinted at mega mythic rarity. Jeesh.
I think you're the one lacking social graces. I call a spade a spade, and you can't even be bothered to read my posts before heaping disdain upon them. Look in the mirror there sport before you start spouting off about rude people. I'll take rude over dumb any day.
Also, I am not disputing that historically preordering has been a bad idea. I just think some of you don't get how much of a shift this might be in terms of mythic/rare singles availability. An order of magnitude of depression of singles, and any microscarcities of hot cards resolved in days rather than weeks. Paradigm shifting. Buzzy word, but appropriate I think.
I really had second thoughts about posting because I try to avoid putting myself out there. I do not post with an agenda and I laid my cards on the table in terms of how much/little I have invested in this set so far. I thought, however, that some players have not been around since BFZ or KTK and have not seen preorder prices crash to almost nothing. Well, I think this set will be an order of magnitude worse than either one of those sets, in terms of packs opened per player. Fastland prices have already dropped by about 10% since the Kaladesh Expeditions were announced. We may see the lesser played fastlands dip to $2 or lower.
But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
I don't think there are any mana vault powered cards in this new set, thus your point is faulty. Players will still want the standard legal cards and if you enjoy that; getting a cheap preorder may not be a bad idea. Only the fast lands really interest me. A few of the new artifacts look good, but their CMC is high for affinity. When you post ideas that we should not do anything with this set and have such high negativity, viewers here loose interest in reading/communicating in our forum. You said it, 10 people read this. Why? The reasons are that certain members are negative, rude, lack social skills, and think they are god's gift to magic. Thanks for killing the market street. I am being real, and find your thread just spreading negativity to something new. We need new players and more people buying into the game so we can enjoy it for as long as possible.
"This country (forum) will never fall from an invading force, but instead it will fall from within...."
Lincoln.
You should really learn to read before you post. The whole PREMISE of this post is about MANA VAULT being reprinted at mega mythic rarity. Jeesh.
I think you're the one lacking social graces. I call a spade a spade, and you can't even be bothered to read my posts before heaping disdain upon them. Look in the mirror there sport before you start spouting off about rude people. I'll take rude over dumb any day.
Also, I am not disputing that historically preordering has been a bad idea. I just think some of you don't get how much of a shift this might be in terms of mythic/rare singles availability. An order of magnitude of depression of singles, and any microscarcities of hot cards resolved in days rather than weeks. Paradigm shifting. Buzzy word, but appropriate I think.
You want buzz words.....
I find you are just peeved cause I called you out on the first post. I wasn't referring to you as being rude. It was the monkey I was referring to. Learn to read into inferences before being prolix. Your pontifications can end with a good Finding when you flesh out your thoughts properly, but as a whole, you are very defensive about contiplating your naval. It's kind of obvious there are no high powered cards in the set and it looks like your gut was right about standard value. I see some value in commander and modern in obvious pieces and lands but Not much. The situation pleases me as it's an opportunity to catch up on old set pieces I need rather than hunt new ones.
Rather than disagree, I concede the argument as time is showing wizards kicked out low powered set for standard only. As far as posting a don't pre-order thread, my eyebrow is still raised. Plainswalkers, most mythics, and lands....yes they will drop in value.
OP, while your intentions are mostly noble here, the simple fact is that no one asked for a thread like this.
Furthermore, the people who are currently paying the "Impatience Tax" (those doing so without good reason, mind you) aren't going to be even remotely swayed by this thread, perhaps not even a hundred more.. At some point, they just have to figure it out like the rest of us did, hopefully years ago.
If anything, your post (probably without really meaning to) comes off as a bit pedantic, if not crossing over into patronizing territory. We're all big kids. We all have to figure out how to manage this inner debate on our own.
If you feel angry or insulted after reading this, then I obviously didn't do it well. I was just trying to lend some neutral feedback, not criticize.
OP, while your intentions are mostly noble here, the simple fact is that no one asked for a thread like this.
Furthermore, the people who are currently paying the "Impatience Tax" (those doing so without good reason, mind you) aren't going to be even remotely swayed by this thread, perhaps not even a hundred more.. At some point, they just have to figure it out like the rest of us did, hopefully years ago.
If anything, your post (probably without really meaning to) comes off as a bit pedantic, if not crossing over into patronizing territory. We're all big kids. We all have to figure out how to manage this inner debate on our own.
If you feel angry or insulted after reading this, then I obviously didn't do it well. I was just trying to lend some neutral feedback, not criticize.
His original post was a lot more pertinent when MS: Inventions weren't known by nearly 100% of the people. 6 days after its original posting it's a lot less relevant. Now that everyone knows, pretty much this info is common sense. I read his post not so much as "hey, DON'T preorder singles" and more of a "In case you didn't hear about these yet, these just announced MS: Inventions are going to cause more packs to be cracked and drive down prices". Also, any player not around during the release of Expeditions may not know about the effect such a subset of cards has on the volume of product being opened, so the information IS relevant to those people. And BTW "nobody asked for a thread like this" IS insulting, because it's well within his rights to post whatever the hell he feels like as long as it's on topic and doesn't violate forum rules. Probably 98% of all threads "weren't asked for".
Once I heard about the Inventions, I decided to take the plunge and preorder a case. I did so with Oath and found it worked out quite well for moving cards that I opened if I moved things QUICKLY. There were some cards that were easy to spot as eternal playable that I didn't push out right away, but I moved pretty much everything else out of the gate and was able to make a profit. Now I'm lucky that my area has a few LGS' that offer decent trade in bonuses and kinder cash value. I was also able to use trade credit to cover most of the cost of a case, which is always a plus.
I'm hopeful that this set is stronger than the BFZ block cards were and the prices don't tank so drastically.
In general Preordering is bad because most cards drop in price and never get back to their preorder price. However, there are cards that do go up and there is something to be said about being able to have the cards on day one. Consider it paying a premium to get the cards now rather than waiting. Is the time spent waiting for the cards to drop worth the extra money you spend to have the cards? If so, get the cards. If not, then wait.
You know... I'm not sure I agree with this, entirely. I come at this as a Vintage player, so my perspective is longer-term than someone who is looking to buy and flip cards. I just want to keep my eternal collection up to date with minimal cost.
If you were to buy all of the potential playable cards in a set, then you will probably end up taking a massive bath, yes. For every $10.00 card that you snag for $2.50 there will be five $0.50 cards that you paid $4.00 for. Not a great thing.
However, I think it's perfectly acceptable to pre-order cards you think are going to be in demand (long term, not the next hot thing in standard) and are pre-selling at a low price. I look at what cards are pre-selling at a dollar or less and think about which of them will likely be well above that price later on. For example, in this set, here's what I pre-ordered:
...and I paid about $1.00 each for these cards. I expect some of them to lose value while they are in print, but in the long haul I think all of these are destined to rise because they're unique, useful, and powerful. Vintage playable helps. The only outlier is Aether Hub, which I went pretty deep on because it's the easiest way to make Energy without hiccups AND the best USE of Energy we've seen spoiled so far. It also doesn't hurt at all that it's Tendo Ice Bridge 2.0 in EDH. You need a lot of these if you have a lot of EDH decks (like, uh, my friend). I feel that the risk that one or more of these cards catches fire while it's in standard and never really comes down is more than enough to counterbalance the risk that I COULD have waited a few months and paid fifty cents instead of a dollar. The loss just isn't that big.
On the flip side, however, it's absolutely correct to be shy about buying expensive-ticket items. Sometimes you get it right, but most of the time, you lose money. In my case, I correctly decided that Nahiri was going to be $20.00 or more based on it's power level and interaction with Modern/Legacy/Vintage. I bought in at that price and it's been stable. I expect it to grow very slowly as she goes out of print. I similarly bought into Kaya, and I suspect she will also rise in the future, but since it will wait until a W/B deck explodes in Legacy, that could take awhile. In both cases, I could have paid HALF by waiting until the set was in print and buying at the bottom of the market. In the case of Kaya, you still can.
LESSON: Unique, eternal playable cards pre-selling for a dollar or less? DO NOT FEEL BAD ABOUT PRE-ORDERING.
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I predict that Kaladesh will have the lowest overall set value in Standard since the likes of Homelands and Fallen Empires. 30 (!!) ultra mythic rares and fastlands and Chandra means that this set is going to be opened to oblivion. Not because the player base is going to experience exponential growth, but because more spend per person. More cards opened more person. More supply per person. Preordering has always been a not great idea, but I feel like with this set, it is especially true. Look at the trajectory of non-fetches in KTK and non-Gideons/Kalitas in BFZ/OGW. Now envision a synergistic set that has the qualities that drove sales for those sets and imagine more sales. A lot of dollar rares. A lot.
There is a small chance I could be wrong - that the set will fail because people are not enticed by the 1 in 144 chance of opening one of the 30 available ultra mythics. But I don't think we're there yet - maybe in a year or two people will get tired of it. I already am, but that's because I went through the return to Zendikar block and opened 1 *****ty expedition. The allure wears off quickly if you're not the one opening these things.
tldr much more supply, same ol' demand.
New UW plainswalker.......ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED! Magic community response...takes the whole set in one hand...wipes their butt and hands it back complaining about no tarmogoyf powered cards. Come on, give wizards credit for thinking of something new.
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But maybe I'm wrong. I ain't no future seeing wizard even though I play magic. Take what I say with a grain of salt, but to me, this means a total shift in how standard legal set pricing is going to work. The new mega mythics will cause eternal players to "buy in" to standard sets more than if they were after one or two cards. Their purchases for these new mega mythics will cause more pack openings than otherwise. If you don't believe me, that's fine. We'll see how it turns out.
Also, I am the first to accuse people of having secondary agendas, but when I read your accusation to me, that made me really rethink how I approach internet posts. A healthy dose of skepticism is fine, but really, what could my objective possibly be? To convince all 10 readers of this subforum to not buy preorders so I can watch cards tank and scoop up $200 Mana Vaults instead of $205 Mana Vaults? Get real dude.
David Ochoa: "Mono-bacon!..."
I'm glad if the single market is on the low end. The only reason to be mad is if you're a business or a speculator (you said you're mad about expected speculation losses). I'm glad that budget players that buy packs have a shot at getting something valuable to trade away for staples. I won't consider holding onto or speculating on the value if I open a Masterpiece card, as a high-value card I don't need is not worth it for me.
Basically, if someone really wants Chandra they should wait until the set is done getting spoiled, then preorder her. Otherwise if someone doesn't need her right away there's no point buying at even 40 usd since she will drop to below 20 later on. She'd need to find a serious home in legacy or modern to hold her current price tag.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I agree that dual lands currently have a track record of getting in the $1.50 range in the past few sets. However, those dual lands had zero eternal implications (beyond EDH). This is the first dual land set with eternal implications since KTK and fetches were definitely not under $2 during that entire run. I fully expected even the janky ones to stay above $3. I am no longer sure.
Homelands may have been a bit of a hyperbole, but it's in the right direction. Overprinting is overprinting. Before this set, overprinting meant languishing on the shelves. WOTC has a system in place to prevent too much of this - printing to "demand." This set, overprinting may be due to raw over-opening. WOTC keeps printing because they think it's organic demand but it's really not. Unexplored territory, IMHO.
Anyways, I wish I hadn't even started this thread now. I really don't give a flip what people do.
I disagree and actually have an article incoming explaining why this set will not be a repeat of Battle for Zendikar. It should be out later today.
As for pre-ordering itself, it is always a gamble, and like gambling at a casino, the house (store) usually wins.
I would argue that this set potentially combines characteristics of all of those sets that caused them to be good selling sets to make one set that outsells them all. And it's a large fall set to boot. Analogies to perfect storms and what-not. But we'll see! The full set hasn't even been spoiled yet. This whole set could end up being hot garbage like BFZ, no one really knows yet.
Boohoo the little baby is unhappy because his attempts at becoming a share trader failed. Get over yourself pal, speccing on pre-orders has simply never paid off. The prices for cards have always been at its highest on release. It is not WOTC fault you bought into the baloney train.
WOTC is not really concerned with what you pay for singles. They concern themselves with the amount of sealed product opened. You can bet this will do the same for their profits as the expeditions of Zendikar did.
Moaners act like cheap singles is a bad thing
Jesus Christ, way to over-react man. Take it down a notch and don't act like an ass.
Having a very low value set at the level of card quality here seems unprecedented. The power level seems high relative to recent sets, and many of these are build-around cards that will appear as 3x 4x in decks.
Fallen Empires was overprinted and then nothing new was released for 8 months after that while all older product was long gone, so we were saturated with those cards and they were relatively weak except at common, so not a close comparison.
none
Modern
UBG B/U/G control
BBB MBC
WUR Control
WWW Prison
RRR Goblins
Legacy
BBB Pox
UBG B/U/G Control
UWU StoneBlade
UW Miracle Control
Currently Playing:
Retired
I don't think there are any mana vault powered cards in this new set, thus your point is faulty. Players will still want the standard legal cards and if you enjoy that; getting a cheap preorder may not be a bad idea. Only the fast lands really interest me. A few of the new artifacts look good, but their CMC is high for affinity. When you post ideas that we should not do anything with this set and have such high negativity, viewers here loose interest in reading/communicating in our forum. You said it, 10 people read this. Why? The reasons are that certain members are negative, rude, lack social skills, and think they are god's gift to magic. Thanks for killing the market street. I am being real, and find your thread just spreading negativity to something new. We need new players and more people buying into the game so we can enjoy it for as long as possible.
"This country (forum) will never fall from an invading force, but instead it will fall from within...."
Lincoln.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Please pre-order from a reputable website. I almost got the shaft with Boros Reckoner on eBay, but the seller finally sent them when I politely spoke to him.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
You should really learn to read before you post. The whole PREMISE of this post is about MANA VAULT being reprinted at mega mythic rarity. Jeesh.
I think you're the one lacking social graces. I call a spade a spade, and you can't even be bothered to read my posts before heaping disdain upon them. Look in the mirror there sport before you start spouting off about rude people. I'll take rude over dumb any day.
Also, I am not disputing that historically preordering has been a bad idea. I just think some of you don't get how much of a shift this might be in terms of mythic/rare singles availability. An order of magnitude of depression of singles, and any microscarcities of hot cards resolved in days rather than weeks. Paradigm shifting. Buzzy word, but appropriate I think.
You want buzz words.....
I find you are just peeved cause I called you out on the first post. I wasn't referring to you as being rude. It was the monkey I was referring to. Learn to read into inferences before being prolix. Your pontifications can end with a good Finding when you flesh out your thoughts properly, but as a whole, you are very defensive about contiplating your naval. It's kind of obvious there are no high powered cards in the set and it looks like your gut was right about standard value. I see some value in commander and modern in obvious pieces and lands but Not much. The situation pleases me as it's an opportunity to catch up on old set pieces I need rather than hunt new ones.
Rather than disagree, I concede the argument as time is showing wizards kicked out low powered set for standard only. As far as posting a don't pre-order thread, my eyebrow is still raised. Plainswalkers, most mythics, and lands....yes they will drop in value.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
OP, while your intentions are mostly noble here, the simple fact is that no one asked for a thread like this.
Furthermore, the people who are currently paying the "Impatience Tax" (those doing so without good reason, mind you) aren't going to be even remotely swayed by this thread, perhaps not even a hundred more.. At some point, they just have to figure it out like the rest of us did, hopefully years ago.
If anything, your post (probably without really meaning to) comes off as a bit pedantic, if not crossing over into patronizing territory. We're all big kids. We all have to figure out how to manage this inner debate on our own.
If you feel angry or insulted after reading this, then I obviously didn't do it well. I was just trying to lend some neutral feedback, not criticize.
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His original post was a lot more pertinent when MS: Inventions weren't known by nearly 100% of the people. 6 days after its original posting it's a lot less relevant. Now that everyone knows, pretty much this info is common sense. I read his post not so much as "hey, DON'T preorder singles" and more of a "In case you didn't hear about these yet, these just announced MS: Inventions are going to cause more packs to be cracked and drive down prices". Also, any player not around during the release of Expeditions may not know about the effect such a subset of cards has on the volume of product being opened, so the information IS relevant to those people. And BTW "nobody asked for a thread like this" IS insulting, because it's well within his rights to post whatever the hell he feels like as long as it's on topic and doesn't violate forum rules. Probably 98% of all threads "weren't asked for".
I'm hopeful that this set is stronger than the BFZ block cards were and the prices don't tank so drastically.
You know... I'm not sure I agree with this, entirely. I come at this as a Vintage player, so my perspective is longer-term than someone who is looking to buy and flip cards. I just want to keep my eternal collection up to date with minimal cost.
If you were to buy all of the potential playable cards in a set, then you will probably end up taking a massive bath, yes. For every $10.00 card that you snag for $2.50 there will be five $0.50 cards that you paid $4.00 for. Not a great thing.
However, I think it's perfectly acceptable to pre-order cards you think are going to be in demand (long term, not the next hot thing in standard) and are pre-selling at a low price. I look at what cards are pre-selling at a dollar or less and think about which of them will likely be well above that price later on. For example, in this set, here's what I pre-ordered:
Ghirapur Orrery
Aether Hub
Aether Reservoir
Madcap Experiment
Paradoxical Outcome
...and I paid about $1.00 each for these cards. I expect some of them to lose value while they are in print, but in the long haul I think all of these are destined to rise because they're unique, useful, and powerful. Vintage playable helps. The only outlier is Aether Hub, which I went pretty deep on because it's the easiest way to make Energy without hiccups AND the best USE of Energy we've seen spoiled so far. It also doesn't hurt at all that it's Tendo Ice Bridge 2.0 in EDH. You need a lot of these if you have a lot of EDH decks (like, uh, my friend). I feel that the risk that one or more of these cards catches fire while it's in standard and never really comes down is more than enough to counterbalance the risk that I COULD have waited a few months and paid fifty cents instead of a dollar. The loss just isn't that big.
On the flip side, however, it's absolutely correct to be shy about buying expensive-ticket items. Sometimes you get it right, but most of the time, you lose money. In my case, I correctly decided that Nahiri was going to be $20.00 or more based on it's power level and interaction with Modern/Legacy/Vintage. I bought in at that price and it's been stable. I expect it to grow very slowly as she goes out of print. I similarly bought into Kaya, and I suspect she will also rise in the future, but since it will wait until a W/B deck explodes in Legacy, that could take awhile. In both cases, I could have paid HALF by waiting until the set was in print and buying at the bottom of the market. In the case of Kaya, you still can.
LESSON: Unique, eternal playable cards pre-selling for a dollar or less? DO NOT FEEL BAD ABOUT PRE-ORDERING.