These, to me, are the cards worth noting
-------------------------------------------------------------
How will this affect the current prices on the originals (will the originals dip at first?) and how much will the reprints get to on the average?
- How much does supply increase. Not only there are many more players nowadays, but this set makes opening booster more fun than usual. On the other side, many players won't care about the set, as it doesn't add cards to the "pro" formats (Block, Standard, Modern) nor there will be serious limited Conspiracy events. Depending on what else is in the set, more or less packs will be opened. If the rest of the set is crap, not many packs will be opened. But if more expensive cards are reprinted (for example Force of Will, Wasteland, Mana Drain, Karakas...) and appear often in the boosters (imagine how crazy would be to reprint them as uncommon), more of them will opened.
- How much does demand increase. I don't think this set will increase the number of Eternal players, but as prices of those two cards decrease, demand will go up.
I think prices of those cards will decrease, but we'll see how much, it will depend on how many packs are opened. Foil Mercadian Masques Misdirections will keep its current value. Pimp explorations will go down, as there will be a new "pimp" (foil) version with this set. Some people will still prefer Korean, but some of them will prefer foils instead.
Misdirection continues to have some weird art... but the original Exploration is a bit iconic, I think it will hold value for Legacy type players.
I think Conspiracy will be opened a lot and it will be opened longer than a normal box.
All that said if we see several more high dollar cards, the values of these two cards will only drop more.
*Edit: After reading the Rumor Mill page on these spoilers it seems that maybe the old Exploration is only iconic to me... people seem to like the new one so take my prediction with a grain of salt
It's not just you. Both cards are visually unique and played enough in eternal formats (minus Modern) to be "iconic." But, people here tend to like shiny, new, and fancy. So I wouldn't put too much in the artwork when assessing the value.
reprints of cards is a disaster. conspiracy will not be worth anything. mtg will print 1 billion cards. its a disaster.
Reprinting cards is far from a disaster. Reprints are good for the health of the game overall. Yes, there will always be some impact to the secondary market but as WotC has recently demonstrated they are very careful with reprints of high profile cards.
Based on the buzz it appears Conspiracy will sell well. If the format is as fun as it appears demand will be high. In a few years booster boxes will be scarce and the natural relationship of supply and demand will cause prices to rise.
reprints of cards is a disaster. conspiracy will not be worth anything. mtg will print 1 billion cards. its a disaster.
During return to ravnica block and around the release of modern masters you were saying the very same thing. Modern masters is now quite valuable, and most of the cards are trending back up, as well as the prominent reprints from RTR block (shocklands). If you have something real to support your thoughts, go for it. As it is though, your post is just fear mongering.
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
Because for every collector there is an equal, if not greater, number of players. I'm not going to say WOTC doesn't care about profits... but they have a lot of people to appease... and A LOT of those people want old cards reprinted so they can get them and try them out. Many even want the reserved list abolished. I personally think WOTC has done a great job of treading this line so far (well except Chronicles but that was a LONG time ago and a big lesson for them).
Back on the original topic... I think Lyles prices look reasonable short term. Long term both versions should rise again slowly. Conspiracy looks to be fairly popular but any summer time fun set is still a lot less opened than other sets
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
It is a game first and a collectible second.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
“Your body is not a temple, it's an amusement park. Enjoy the ride.”
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
Eternal players can be snobbish, so aesthetics are definitely a consideration. New frame and worse art means that the originals will hold a higher % of their value.
You also need to consider scarcity and utility. Exploration is an archetype staple - Lands is about the only deck that can really make use of it. So if the card goes from being very scarce to easily attainable, but it's only used in a fringe deck, it's highly likely to drop. Misdirection is played by combo decks that want more FOWs, but it at least is blue and "counters" Abrupt Decay, giving it a bit more push beyond a pure archetype staple.
I'd predict that both cards will be $10 at their low point, and then slowly climb back up.
I have heard vague rumors of a moustache-dispensing vending machine in a distant laundromat, across the street from a tattoo parlor. However, this information is shaky, and time is of the essence.
I believe these cards will lose a lot of value very quickly and will not regain it. Both cards see very minor play in eternal formats, and demand will be met with relative ease.
With regards to the reprints, the set is basically a small set that will be triple drafted. With a rarity breakdown of 10 mythic, 35 rare, 60 uncommon, 80 common and 25 draft-specific cards in the basic land slot, we're going to see each rare in about 3 out of 4 boxes or every other draft. I think that's going to lead to a number of Exploration and Misdirection sitting in trade binders all over.
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
If you played the game you would know the player base right now is exploding. Your cards will be worth tons BECAUSE WoTC is reprinting and pushing billions of cards out there. More players=more demand=higher prices. If people stopped playing the game THEN your precious cardboard would become worthless. This isn't Chronicle's and Fallen Empires and the sky is not falling. Get over it and let people who want to play get the cards to play. If you're afraid, sell. Get the cards into hands of players who are going to USE the cards for their intentions rather then sitting in an attic sealed collecting dust. Your viewpoint already lead to the Reserved List debacle. It killed Vintage and is slowly pricing more people out of Legacy.
I have to commend Wizards, they've handled reprints (for the most part) really well lately. Nothing has crashed even with multiple printings. Even putting things in ancillary products like Commander decks things are still high.
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
Because some of us actually want to play the game instead of leaving them in binders/storage containers and looking at them.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Nyarlathotep must all things be told
for he is the messenger between the spheres
and the traveler between the realms of the living and the dead.
He shall summon forth the ancient ones
and wake them from their deathly slumber
then shall the elder signs be shattered. Trade Thread
I don't get it why so many collectors have no idea at all. Sometimes it seems to me they don't know how "collector business" works in general...
Actually it's similar and not exactly the same as stamps for example. From my point of view it's simple, if a collector fears price decrease of a 20+ year old mint power card he's a fool.
Print run/quantity, rarity, condition, age, playability or like/dislike of the cards artist and his work and many more factors are important for the price.
I guess conspiracy has the potentional to do really well in the view of dealer/magic broker
Unfortunately we'll not know before by the end of the year how "screwed" or "flooded" the market is.
Speculators will definitely buy some boxes. (A lot of...) People who don't enjoy the fun draft format will not, they wait for singles.
So if the demand is not there to buyout all shops, there's no need to reprint it to much. We'll everyone can imagine how this ends...
Put me on the list of believers who think the product will be scarce.
I really hate it when people both say "I hate reprints, my value is going down." and "Man, I wish there was more new people to test the tweeks to my legacy deck with before and SCG open." You can't have it both ways. I for one have a decent budget for magic, definitely higher than most my age, but between trying to catch up on Modern and trying to stay up to date an competitive with Standard.. I do not have 4k to go buy the Deathblade deck I dream of.. that's almost a month's pay! And legacy is one thing but let alone EDH. I have so many sweet ideas but when I tally up the prices we end up talking 5-6 hundred each. Which puts me in the position "Do I want to put a week's pay on a game? Probably not a good idea." If every card I want dropped by 10$, let's just say, and fetchlands dropped to 15 each (with a reprint), I would be able to enjoy the game so much more. I could finally play with the big boys at the legacy table (okay, duals would have to drop by a bit more than 10$ each).
Reprints are fantastic for the game, they allow newer players as well as returning players MUCH easier access to the eternal formats which, in turn, greatly improve enjoyment of the game as, in my mind as well as that of many other players, eternals are where the game is at its most flavorful and fun.
Private Mod Note
():
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My modern Decks: GBRJundGBR URWJeskai NahiriURW My Legacy Deck: URBGrixis DelverURB My EDH Decks: GJarad, Golgari Lich LordB GRhys, The RedeemedW RWArchangel AvacynRW UWDragonlord OjutaiUW
I don't think conspiracy will be opened very much though. No sanctioned events and no redemptions should keep card supply relatively low. There will be a lot opened during the release period from both players and stores, but then once the initial excitement dies down there won't be fnms or competitive REL level events.
It is not fear mongering, but a reality check of the fact that WotC reprints cards for their selfish reasons. They do not care about collectors. Its a capitalist society and I except nothing less from a company that prints a billion cards per set. Why dont they just leave the old cards alone? There is too much admiration and self-loving of mtg here and I think it is healthy to have a counter view. Its not all rosy...
"their selfish reasons" that was ironic, to say the least.
for me the argument of reprints ruin original prices is like saying a cd ruined the price of an original rare record
Foils are about the only thing that are going to "semi" keep their value in the long run. it won't be for a while until non-foils start to appreciate. Conspiracy is being opened A LOT contrary to what has been reported here. A major store in upstate NY alone went through on the upwards of 400 packs over a weekend. I know stores continuing to fire Conspiracy drafts as long as they have product as soon as 8+ people sign up.
You can clearly monitor these singles (Stifle/Misdirect/EDH Generals/Exploration) are TANKING and the set has been out for, what less than a week? Maybe a week now?
*edit* I was on the fence of going in on sealed product, thinking the print run/supply wouldn't be so great. Boy was I wrong.
So I pulled a foil Reflecting Pool in a draft earlier. Was really excited at the time, still am, but was a bit letdown when I saw it wasn't the $80 that the original run foil is. Is it at least likely to hold at it's current price? Maybe even go up?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Just added on 6/1/2014:
Stifle: ~$37.00
Mirari's Wake: ~$10.00
Pernicious Deed: ~$15.00
Reflecting Pool: ~$13.00
These, to me, are the cards worth noting
-------------------------------------------------------------
How will this affect the current prices on the originals (will the originals dip at first?) and how much will the reprints get to on the average?
- How much does supply increase. Not only there are many more players nowadays, but this set makes opening booster more fun than usual. On the other side, many players won't care about the set, as it doesn't add cards to the "pro" formats (Block, Standard, Modern) nor there will be serious limited Conspiracy events. Depending on what else is in the set, more or less packs will be opened. If the rest of the set is crap, not many packs will be opened. But if more expensive cards are reprinted (for example Force of Will, Wasteland, Mana Drain, Karakas...) and appear often in the boosters (imagine how crazy would be to reprint them as uncommon), more of them will opened.
- How much does demand increase. I don't think this set will increase the number of Eternal players, but as prices of those two cards decrease, demand will go up.
I think prices of those cards will decrease, but we'll see how much, it will depend on how many packs are opened. Foil Mercadian Masques Misdirections will keep its current value. Pimp explorations will go down, as there will be a new "pimp" (foil) version with this set. Some people will still prefer Korean, but some of them will prefer foils instead.
Original:
Misdirection - $15
Exploration - $25
Conspiracy:
Misdirection - $10
Exploration - $15
Misdirection continues to have some weird art... but the original Exploration is a bit iconic, I think it will hold value for Legacy type players.
I think Conspiracy will be opened a lot and it will be opened longer than a normal box.
All that said if we see several more high dollar cards, the values of these two cards will only drop more.
*Edit: After reading the Rumor Mill page on these spoilers it seems that maybe the old Exploration is only iconic to me... people seem to like the new one so take my prediction with a grain of salt
Your prices sound about right to me though.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Reprinting cards is far from a disaster. Reprints are good for the health of the game overall. Yes, there will always be some impact to the secondary market but as WotC has recently demonstrated they are very careful with reprints of high profile cards.
Based on the buzz it appears Conspiracy will sell well. If the format is as fun as it appears demand will be high. In a few years booster boxes will be scarce and the natural relationship of supply and demand will cause prices to rise.
During return to ravnica block and around the release of modern masters you were saying the very same thing. Modern masters is now quite valuable, and most of the cards are trending back up, as well as the prominent reprints from RTR block (shocklands). If you have something real to support your thoughts, go for it. As it is though, your post is just fear mongering.
All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!
The reserve list would like to have a word with you.
Because for every collector there is an equal, if not greater, number of players. I'm not going to say WOTC doesn't care about profits... but they have a lot of people to appease... and A LOT of those people want old cards reprinted so they can get them and try them out. Many even want the reserved list abolished. I personally think WOTC has done a great job of treading this line so far (well except Chronicles but that was a LONG time ago and a big lesson for them).
Back on the original topic... I think Lyles prices look reasonable short term. Long term both versions should rise again slowly. Conspiracy looks to be fairly popular but any summer time fun set is still a lot less opened than other sets
It is a game first and a collectible second.
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
You also need to consider scarcity and utility. Exploration is an archetype staple - Lands is about the only deck that can really make use of it. So if the card goes from being very scarce to easily attainable, but it's only used in a fringe deck, it's highly likely to drop. Misdirection is played by combo decks that want more FOWs, but it at least is blue and "counters" Abrupt Decay, giving it a bit more push beyond a pure archetype staple.
I'd predict that both cards will be $10 at their low point, and then slowly climb back up.
With regards to the reprints, the set is basically a small set that will be triple drafted. With a rarity breakdown of 10 mythic, 35 rare, 60 uncommon, 80 common and 25 draft-specific cards in the basic land slot, we're going to see each rare in about 3 out of 4 boxes or every other draft. I think that's going to lead to a number of Exploration and Misdirection sitting in trade binders all over.
If you played the game you would know the player base right now is exploding. Your cards will be worth tons BECAUSE WoTC is reprinting and pushing billions of cards out there. More players=more demand=higher prices. If people stopped playing the game THEN your precious cardboard would become worthless. This isn't Chronicle's and Fallen Empires and the sky is not falling. Get over it and let people who want to play get the cards to play. If you're afraid, sell. Get the cards into hands of players who are going to USE the cards for their intentions rather then sitting in an attic sealed collecting dust. Your viewpoint already lead to the Reserved List debacle. It killed Vintage and is slowly pricing more people out of Legacy.
I have to commend Wizards, they've handled reprints (for the most part) really well lately. Nothing has crashed even with multiple printings. Even putting things in ancillary products like Commander decks things are still high.
BUG Reanimator
BWG Nic-Fit
BGR Punishing Nic-Fit
Because some of us actually want to play the game instead of leaving them in binders/storage containers and looking at them.
for he is the messenger between the spheres
and the traveler between the realms of the living and the dead.
He shall summon forth the ancient ones
and wake them from their deathly slumber
then shall the elder signs be shattered.
Trade Thread
Actually it's similar and not exactly the same as stamps for example. From my point of view it's simple, if a collector fears price decrease of a 20+ year old mint power card he's a fool.
Print run/quantity, rarity, condition, age, playability or like/dislike of the cards artist and his work and many more factors are important for the price.
I guess conspiracy has the potentional to do really well in the view of dealer/magic broker
Unfortunately we'll not know before by the end of the year how "screwed" or "flooded" the market is.
Speculators will definitely buy some boxes. (A lot of...) People who don't enjoy the fun draft format will not, they wait for singles.
So if the demand is not there to buyout all shops, there's no need to reprint it to much. We'll everyone can imagine how this ends...
Put me on the list of believers who think the product will be scarce.
Reprints are fantastic for the game, they allow newer players as well as returning players MUCH easier access to the eternal formats which, in turn, greatly improve enjoyment of the game as, in my mind as well as that of many other players, eternals are where the game is at its most flavorful and fun.
GBRJundGBR
URWJeskai NahiriURW
My Legacy Deck:
URBGrixis DelverURB
My EDH Decks:
GJarad, Golgari Lich LordB
GRhys, The RedeemedW
RWArchangel AvacynRW
UWDragonlord OjutaiUW
Stifle is $37.00 (tcgplayer, mid-range).
My specs:
Original: $25.00
Reprint: $15.00
I don't think conspiracy will be opened very much though. No sanctioned events and no redemptions should keep card supply relatively low. There will be a lot opened during the release period from both players and stores, but then once the initial excitement dies down there won't be fnms or competitive REL level events.
"their selfish reasons" that was ironic, to say the least.
for me the argument of reprints ruin original prices is like saying a cd ruined the price of an original rare record
You can clearly monitor these singles (Stifle/Misdirect/EDH Generals/Exploration) are TANKING and the set has been out for, what less than a week? Maybe a week now?
*edit* I was on the fence of going in on sealed product, thinking the print run/supply wouldn't be so great. Boy was I wrong.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/trading-post/details/805-w-underground-sea-h-revised-lands
UBBreya's Toybox (Competitive, Combo)WR
RGodzilla, King of the MonstersG
-Retired Decks-
UBLazav, Dimir Mastermind (Competitive, UB Voltron/Control)UB
"Knowledge is such a burden. Release it. Release all your fears to me."
—Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver