First off, the whole "target player" thing isn't really relevant. Yes, you can't use the card as a way to mill someone out for the win. Since this is not what people are trying to do in Standard, it has no impact on the discussion.
Second, the mana cost is really a non-issue. Most of the time, you are going to be casting this card for 6+ mana. The decks who want this card, Control decks who play on the opponent's turn, are most likely to be UW anyway. The mana cost is completely non-restrictive. By the time you have the 6 or 7 mana you want to use, you almost certainly have UUW for the casting cost. If this was a card where you wanted to cast it turn three and you were comparing 2U to UUW, obviously that is a completely different story.
The life gain is not irrelevant, and it basically comes free in comparison to Stroke of Genius.
In summation.....Star Trek wins a prolonged naval battle against superior, yet less technologically advanced, numbers, with Picard leading the assault, while Kirk takes your soul by laying out Solo and probably his manservant Chewy as well, before impregnating and ditching your Princess.
Also, Standard and EDH are the only formats in which an X spell that draws cards has any relevance, so th difference between Stroke and Revelation makes a lot of sense in that context.
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Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
mastro, you can argue the differences are negligible, but you can't claim they don't have some impact on the card's play and price. Also, my point is that Sphinx's Revelation is only worth more than a buck because of Standard. Do you really think it can compare to Stroke of Genius once they're both legal in the same formats? To claim that coloured mana is just as easy to come up with as colorless mana is daft at best. And to claim that adding a second colour to a spell doesn't decrease the number of decks that will run it, and therefore it's price, is also pure silliness. Does the 2-4 life you gain justify the other drawbacks? Will we start seeing white splashed in non-white decks so that Cathedral Sanctifier can provide "basically free" life?
I can't figure out what your post's purpose was, except to argue, and you didn't even correctly state my position to begin arguing from. The card has major drawbacks compared to Stroke, and has a huge supply compared to Stroke, but is worth twice as much. That lead me to my point, which is that Sphinx's Revelation's appeal is for Standard only and that it has no long term future.
To add to my point from above, Sphinx's is really the only "draw lots of cards" instant available in Standard right now. So despite its inadequacies, players are giving it a chance because there's nothing else available.
He was certainly crass about it but the life gain is relevent. See centaur healer and thrag for that. Now is life gain good enough to make a 1/1 for 1 good? No.
But I completely agree that it is only this standard with this meta that makes Sphinx's this desired.
Stop comparing an urza's block rare with a mythic just printed. We KNOW standard drives standard card prices and there is no need to make an comparison of revelation to its grandfather to show it.
The thing to take away from revelations is that go big or go home X draw spells biggest weakness was getting out aggroed when you are playing such clunky spells in your deck. However when that same X spell is also giving you back a sizable chunk of life back you are going to be much harder to kill. Add in stuff like thragtusk and its no wonder aggro can't make it in the current meta. The average midrange and control deck have the tools to more than double their life total by the course of the game. And this is peripheral, their lifegain cards are all attached to cards that provide card advantage.
Yes, the lifegain is relevant. Gaining life is better than not gaining life.
It doesn't negate the drawbacks though. Part of Stroke's pricetag is due to it being able to combo up with a bunch of mana to create the effect "you win the game". Sphinx's will never be able to do that. Another part of Stroke's pricetag is that like Thragtusk, it's super splashable and can go in almost any deck. Sphinx's will never be able to do that. Lifegain is great but it's a bonus at best, not a board-changer, a game-winner, or a strategy in itself barring something like Felidar Sovereign, hehe. No offense to Felidar Sovereign, he's pretty sweet.
R_E, I agree that it is only Standard demand that is forcing up the price of Sphinx's Revelation. I was just saying that, for the current Standard, the lifegain is actually more relevant than the casting cost and the lack of ability to target combined. My post was not meant to flame or anything like that and I apologize if it was taken that way. I fully agree that this is not a card with value post-rotation.
In summation.....Star Trek wins a prolonged naval battle against superior, yet less technologically advanced, numbers, with Picard leading the assault, while Kirk takes your soul by laying out Solo and probably his manservant Chewy as well, before impregnating and ditching your Princess.
Yeah its only good in Standard and specifically U/W/x control where anything rare with blue pretty much goes up in value. (i.e. Dungeon Geists during Delvers time, obviously Jace, foil blue commons)
To me saying that a card's value is tied strictly to standard is stating the obvious. I mean that is true for 95% of all cards. All I have to add to Sphinx's Revealtion is that if it did not have lifegain it would be a borderline playable card worth $3.
This card will be the worst rare in RTR and less remembered than skaab ruibator in three months. It struggles to be on the same power level as mass of ghouls, even in limited.
That its not simply "not good enough for competitive", or underpowered. But that this is offensively bad, the real stinker tier.
Still, my best evaluation is that its approximately on the same power level as a 4/4 for 4 vanilla beater.
So let me get this straight. I made a point, which you think didn't need to be made.... so you made a post to say so? How about this: In the future, if you see something that you didn't think needed to be said, you just ignore it. Deal? There's no need to post only to say "your post was meaningless". You could even report my posts as spam, if you think they qualify.
That aside, it's NOT meaningless to point out that the 4th most valuable card in a set will be worth nothing once it rotates. That's what this thread is for, discussing prices and trends of Magic singles. Please stop reading it (and definitely stop posting on it) if you're not interested in that topic. It's what we do here. You can go to the storyline forums and post "what you're talking about isn't useful to me" if you like, but you'll probably get the same reaction there.
Inevitably everyone is going to have their own opinions and thoughts about the cards and trends and what is relevant and what isnt. I would hope that everyone here would do their best to be respectful of each other's opinions, and if you have a question about how someone came to a particular conclusion, feel free to ask. Its the different perspectives within these threads that give us the greatest overall perspective of the market for these sets and cards. Just because some people may view certain statements as redundant or otherwise, doesnt neccessarily make them any less true, or without a particular point. In the case of a card dropping to nothing after rotation, there are in fact many cards that do not do this, whether from casual demand, or extensive eternal format demand. So when a card like Sphinx's Revelation shoots up, but only due to additional demand in standard, it makes sense to note to people that they should keep an eye on it, because long-term the card is unlikely to hold much value, and once it peaks, it would be a good idea to sell, and then pick up after the rotation (as with many cards) since it would be cheaper. This is inherently a true statement. Many people may feel that its common sense, but then again, not everyone may really think that far ahead, so sometimes making the occasional common sense statement like that, can in fact help some people, I wont neccessarily help myself, or many of the posters in the thread, but to those other people, it can be important.
Just some things to keep in mind, and as always, try to keep it all civil and be nice to your fellow posters :).
It is interesting, but not wholly surprisind to see movement with ash zealot. I think it is one of the best red aggro cards printed in a long time. Stromkirk, Hellrider, and Zealot all seem to be holding a modest value but I still feel they are good hodl untill gatecrash is revealed. I fully expect Gruul and Boros to each give red more tools, and RDW may jsut have it's day.
You would do well to listen to this man. Dump this card before it rotates from standard...lest it go down in value.
Just like every other single standard legal card?
Well it's already being considered in UW Restoration Control and Esper Teachings in Modern but that's speculative. So, it's possible it would still perform well in Modern, especially if decks are viable in a slower meta.
You are probably right like everyone else about it dropping; it will always be a $5 dollar card in my opinion, so you won't be really losing out if you keep em after rotation and it is a great EDH card. One of my favorite cards in the set. I hope it gains more popularity.
I dont see how Angel of Serenity is so freaking high. Shes good and all but 7cmc is quite steep. I pulled on out yesterday. Should i unload her for some other stuff or will she rise in value two or three weeks or months down the line?
I dont see how Angel of Serenity is so freaking high. Shes good and all but 7cmc is quite steep. I pulled on out yesterday. Should i unload her for some other stuff or will she rise in value two or three weeks or months down the line?
If you don't plan on using her, I would unload her. I see her having a similar price trajectory as Elesh Norn.
I dont see how Angel of Serenity is so freaking high. Shes good and all but 7cmc is quite steep. I pulled on out yesterday. Should i unload her for some other stuff or will she rise in value two or three weeks or months down the line?
Angel of Serenity is pretty awesome in this very slow meta we have right now and it's effect is completely gamechanging no matter how late in the game you use it. I think it's price for now is justified.
I wish my 4/4s with haste and first strike that acted as Goblin Warchiefs were better and didn't die to instants and overshadowed all other 4 drops in the format. And that they had evasion too, and some way to dodge wrath effects.
Remember that playabilty is only part of the answer to "is CARD X going to go up, down, or flat?" The set is still being opened rapidly and a price drop may be in the works, despite AoS's solid playability.
I have a Jace I'm trying to sell right now, but on a daily basis it's dropping. If it gets to the point where I'm at negative margin, I'll just keep it and maybe throw it into a deck. (get 2 years of play out of it and hope it recovers lol)
I hope you don't mind me using something you said to bring up a related point
This is an example of what in trading/"technical analysis" is called a "support level". If you imagine the price of the card, graphed over time, you can visualize it better. I wish I had some good and easy graphing software, but I'm sure you know what I mean. In the past, Jace was trading for a while at $25, before moving up to $40. Now, it's drifting back down to the previous level of $25, which can be seen as "support". The reason behind this support is shown above - people who got it at that level don't want to trade/sell it below that level, so they will hang on to their copies, which acts to slow the price drop. If enough people in the market refuse to sell below that previous support level, the support level will be said to have "held". That is, it wasn't "broken" and the price failed to fall below $25.
For some, that'll be nothing new, and in fact quite boring. But I post it for those who may not have encountered the concepts and lingo before.
I hope you don't mind me using something you said to bring up a related point
This is an example of what in trading/"technical analysis" is called a "support level". If you imagine the price of the card, graphed over time, you can visualize it better. I wish I had some good and easy graphing software, but I'm sure you know what I mean. In the past, Jace was trading for a while at $25, before moving up to $40. Now, it's drifting back down to the previous level of $25, which can be seen as "support". The reason behind this support is shown above - people who got it at that level don't want to trade/sell it below that level, so they will hang on to their copies, which acts to slow the price drop. If enough people in the market refuse to sell below that previous support level, the support level will be said to have "held". That is, it wasn't "broken" and the price failed to fall below $25.
For some, that'll be nothing new, and in fact quite boring. But I post it for those who may not have encountered the concepts and lingo before.
Good post. Might as well give the buy side of the support level as well, even though the post your responding to is about selling.
The other thing is the support level can also be where people come into the market. A lot of people want Jace, don`t want to spend $40 on him but have decided to pick him up at $25. When Jace falls to $25 demand picks up and the price stops falling and may in fact start increasing as excess supply leaves the market.
I hope you don't mind me using something you said to bring up a related point
This is an example of what in trading/"technical analysis" is called a "support level". If you imagine the price of the card, graphed over time, you can visualize it better. I wish I had some good and easy graphing software, but I'm sure you know what I mean. In the past, Jace was trading for a while at $25, before moving up to $40. Now, it's drifting back down to the previous level of $25, which can be seen as "support". The reason behind this support is shown above - people who got it at that level don't want to trade/sell it below that level, so they will hang on to their copies, which acts to slow the price drop. If enough people in the market refuse to sell below that previous support level, the support level will be said to have "held". That is, it wasn't "broken" and the price failed to fall below $25.
For some, that'll be nothing new, and in fact quite boring. But I post it for those who may not have encountered the concepts and lingo before.
I've seen this referred to as price memory as well.
I just did a full reprice of RTR. I found overall that the singles in the set remained stable. I haven't calculated box value myself, but I get the feeling it hasn't moved much since my last full update 4 days ago. Jace is hovering at 30, Angel still 19, shockduals 10-12, no drastic moves toward the tail end of the list. Ash Zealot still looking good. Perhaps the extra printings are mostly distrubuted and opened, and the market is stablizing. Of course, even if that's the case, MTGO redemptions will begin soon, so there's that to consider. Still, it's interesting to see pretty much everything holding its value after dropping the last few updates. Deathrite Shaman also gained again.
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
No cards crossed the $3 threshold this update, so there are still 24 cards worth opening in a booster pack.
There was some minor jostling around of the singles in the set, but overall since the last update nothing major has happened. The difference between 1st and 2nd has shrunk now with Jace at 26 and Angel at 20. The shockduals continue to hold their $10+ values. Abrupt Decay seems to be holding at $6 after a long fall from $20.
Since the set came out, it has only lost about 15% of its value despite the record high level it started at, and the extra print runs that have been added to the market.
First off, the whole "target player" thing isn't really relevant. Yes, you can't use the card as a way to mill someone out for the win. Since this is not what people are trying to do in Standard, it has no impact on the discussion.
Second, the mana cost is really a non-issue. Most of the time, you are going to be casting this card for 6+ mana. The decks who want this card, Control decks who play on the opponent's turn, are most likely to be UW anyway. The mana cost is completely non-restrictive. By the time you have the 6 or 7 mana you want to use, you almost certainly have UUW for the casting cost. If this was a card where you wanted to cast it turn three and you were comparing 2U to UUW, obviously that is a completely different story.
The life gain is not irrelevant, and it basically comes free in comparison to Stroke of Genius.
Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
I can't figure out what your post's purpose was, except to argue, and you didn't even correctly state my position to begin arguing from. The card has major drawbacks compared to Stroke, and has a huge supply compared to Stroke, but is worth twice as much. That lead me to my point, which is that Sphinx's Revelation's appeal is for Standard only and that it has no long term future.
To add to my point from above, Sphinx's is really the only "draw lots of cards" instant available in Standard right now. So despite its inadequacies, players are giving it a chance because there's nothing else available.
.
But I completely agree that it is only this standard with this meta that makes Sphinx's this desired.
The thing to take away from revelations is that go big or go home X draw spells biggest weakness was getting out aggroed when you are playing such clunky spells in your deck. However when that same X spell is also giving you back a sizable chunk of life back you are going to be much harder to kill. Add in stuff like thragtusk and its no wonder aggro can't make it in the current meta. The average midrange and control deck have the tools to more than double their life total by the course of the game. And this is peripheral, their lifegain cards are all attached to cards that provide card advantage.
It doesn't negate the drawbacks though. Part of Stroke's pricetag is due to it being able to combo up with a bunch of mana to create the effect "you win the game". Sphinx's will never be able to do that. Another part of Stroke's pricetag is that like Thragtusk, it's super splashable and can go in almost any deck. Sphinx's will never be able to do that. Lifegain is great but it's a bonus at best, not a board-changer, a game-winner, or a strategy in itself barring something like Felidar Sovereign, hehe. No offense to Felidar Sovereign, he's pretty sweet.
Nah.
Stop reading..?
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Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
You would do well to listen to this man. Dump this card before it rotates from standard...lest it go down in value.
Just like every other single standard legal card?
So let me get this straight. I made a point, which you think didn't need to be made.... so you made a post to say so? How about this: In the future, if you see something that you didn't think needed to be said, you just ignore it. Deal? There's no need to post only to say "your post was meaningless". You could even report my posts as spam, if you think they qualify.
That aside, it's NOT meaningless to point out that the 4th most valuable card in a set will be worth nothing once it rotates. That's what this thread is for, discussing prices and trends of Magic singles. Please stop reading it (and definitely stop posting on it) if you're not interested in that topic. It's what we do here. You can go to the storyline forums and post "what you're talking about isn't useful to me" if you like, but you'll probably get the same reaction there.
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Just some things to keep in mind, and as always, try to keep it all civil and be nice to your fellow posters :).
Well it's already being considered in UW Restoration Control and Esper Teachings in Modern but that's speculative. So, it's possible it would still perform well in Modern, especially if decks are viable in a slower meta.
You are probably right like everyone else about it dropping; it will always be a $5 dollar card in my opinion, so you won't be really losing out if you keep em after rotation and it is a great EDH card. One of my favorite cards in the set. I hope it gains more popularity.
If you don't plan on using her, I would unload her. I see her having a similar price trajectory as Elesh Norn.
Angel of Serenity is pretty awesome in this very slow meta we have right now and it's effect is completely gamechanging no matter how late in the game you use it. I think it's price for now is justified.
My current decks!
http://tappedout.net/users/ThePhasewalker/
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I hope you don't mind me using something you said to bring up a related point
This is an example of what in trading/"technical analysis" is called a "support level". If you imagine the price of the card, graphed over time, you can visualize it better. I wish I had some good and easy graphing software, but I'm sure you know what I mean. In the past, Jace was trading for a while at $25, before moving up to $40. Now, it's drifting back down to the previous level of $25, which can be seen as "support". The reason behind this support is shown above - people who got it at that level don't want to trade/sell it below that level, so they will hang on to their copies, which acts to slow the price drop. If enough people in the market refuse to sell below that previous support level, the support level will be said to have "held". That is, it wasn't "broken" and the price failed to fall below $25.
For some, that'll be nothing new, and in fact quite boring. But I post it for those who may not have encountered the concepts and lingo before.
.
Good post. Might as well give the buy side of the support level as well, even though the post your responding to is about selling.
The other thing is the support level can also be where people come into the market. A lot of people want Jace, don`t want to spend $40 on him but have decided to pick him up at $25. When Jace falls to $25 demand picks up and the price stops falling and may in fact start increasing as excess supply leaves the market.
I've seen this referred to as price memory as well.
Cheers
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Box value holds strong and the winners solidify:
1) Jace Architect of Thought (26) / / / / / /
2) Angel of Serenity (20) / / / / / /
3) Hallowed Fountain (12) / / / / / /
4) Overgrown Tomb (11.5) / / / / / /
5) Sphinx's Revelation (11) / / / / / / /
6) Temple Garden (11) / / / / / /
7) Vraska the Unseen (11) / / / / / /
8) Blood Crypt (10) / / / / / /
9) Steam Vents (10) / / / / / /
10) Armada Wurm (9) / / / / / /
11) Deathrite Shaman (8.5) / / / / / / /
12) Rakdos's Return (7.5) / / / / / / /
13) Trostani Selesnya's Voice (6.5) / / / / / / /
14) Abrupt Decay (6) / / / / / / /
15) Dreadbore (5) / / / / / / /
16) Detention Sphere (4.75) / / / / / / /
17) Lotleth Troll (4.25) / / / / / / /
18) Niv-Mizzet Dracogenius (4) / / / / / / /
19) Rakdos Lord of Riots (4) / / / / / / /
20) Supreme Verdict (4) / / / / / / /
21) Ash Zealot (3.5) / /
22) Chromatic Lantern (3.5) / / / / / / /
23) Loxodon Smiter (3.5) / / / / / / /
24) Mizzium Mortars (3) / / / / / / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
No cards crossed the $3 threshold this update, so there are still 24 cards worth opening in a booster pack.
There was some minor jostling around of the singles in the set, but overall since the last update nothing major has happened. The difference between 1st and 2nd has shrunk now with Jace at 26 and Angel at 20. The shockduals continue to hold their $10+ values. Abrupt Decay seems to be holding at $6 after a long fall from $20.
Since the set came out, it has only lost about 15% of its value despite the record high level it started at, and the extra print runs that have been added to the market.
.