As per every other running tally thread, we're here to discuss values, projections, and directions of cards from the new set Return to Ravnica. If you want to contribute a price list to the thread, I will add it to this opening post. However, if you wish to have it added you need to provide a Top-10 list with prices and a source for those prices so people understand where you're measuring from (as prices taken entirely from a single store will look different than data taken from completed eBay auctions which will look different then data taken from the low prices of a number of stores).
It is looking like this set is going to have a massive shortage. Be prepared for cards to spike huge early on until the second/third printings hit, much like Innistrad cards did last year. Dealers will be opening LOTS of this set.
Yeah, my lgs order his maximum for rtr which is unlike him. His family is lazy and this small store is the only income. So if they're getting max, I know this stuff is going to get plenty of hype for pricings. They just can't do it to that many cards at once. It has to be spread across the set or sales will drop.
It is looking like this set is going to have a massive shortage. Be prepared for cards to spike huge early on until the second/third printings hit, much like Innistrad cards did last year. Dealers will be opening LOTS of this set.
I agree, and I think prices will be inflated until after States due to people desperate to get the cards they want for their decks and therefore willing to pay a premium for the opportunity. My advice to anyone not playing at States and wanting to play Standard for a more budget-friendly price would be to temper your enthusiasm until after States happens and therefore after the supply crunch passes.
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Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
It is looking like this set is going to have a massive shortage. Be prepared for cards to spike huge early on until the second/third printings hit, much like Innistrad cards did last year. Dealers will be opening LOTS of this set.
I wonder about this.
Are they really that bad at business to dramatically underestimate demand for what we've known for a while to be the most hyped set ever — especially after underestimating demand last year?
There might be something else going on here. Perhaps the set, while valuable, is being massively overhyped.
Are they really that bad at business to dramatically underestimate demand for what we've known for a while to be the most hyped set ever — especially after underestimating demand last year?
There might be something else going on here. Perhaps the set, while valuable, is being massively overhyped.
It's not overhyped. There are just an enormous amount of constructed playable cards (in all 4 relevant formats) in this set- far more than normal.
Sure. But they surely knew this when they decided how big the print run should be, so it should already have been taken into account.
Another thing to consider: compared to a normal set, more of the key money cards are rare rather than mythic. That may be throwing of some estimates.
Well, I think one of the issues that make it hard for WOTC to forecast sales would be the increase number of players, as well as increased interest from current/returning players. For instance, I traded in a bunch of T2 staples plus $260 for A CASE of RtR. Previously, I only bought 1 Zendikar booster box, 1 Worldwake fat pack, and 2 Scars booster boxes. Likewise, several other people who normally don't buy booster boxes are splitting A CASE.
I traded in a bunch of T2 staples plus $260 for A CASE of RtR. Previously, I only bought 1 Zendikar booster box, 1 Worldwake fat pack, and 2 Scars booster boxes.
You can't claim that demand for RTR is high because demand for RTR is high.
The question at hand, which is off-topic for this thread and probably should be split into its own thread, is why does there appear to be a shortage of RTR product when Wizards clearly knew long ago that the set would be in high demand?
@Rancored Elf: Would it be a plausible idea that this whole "shortage" is something fabricated by retailers to raise prices going into States? My LGS has said that while he wants to focus on getting preorders out before letting people use store credit on cards, he was not (as of last weekend) expecting to have any trouble meeting his customer's demands. Or would it have to do with something at the distributor / wholesale level?
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Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
The shortage will be very short-lived. My LGS owner explained to me last night that while there was initially going to be a shortage, Wizards quickly realized their impending mistake and ordered an emergency second print run, to be shipped out 3 days after the initial print run. So there will be a crunch, but it'll only last a week. That's what I hear, anyway ... and the guys who run my LGS have always been pretty tuned into that kind of thing and very honest businessmen about it all.
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Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
Wizards doesn't know how many players are out there? Come on, don't be silly.
I did not say that Wizards doesn't know how many players there are currently, what I meant was Wizards wouldn't be able to know the full extent that RTR will be perceived in the public eyes and attract more new/returning players.
You can't claim that demand for RTR is high because demand for RTR is high.
I have no earthly idea what do you mean by this. My point was that the increase demand from people who don't buy products is impossible to predict. I would definitely call BS if someone say before RTR release that the current group of players who don't buy products normally would start buying them products in significant quantity all of a sudden.
The shortage will be very short-lived. My LGS owner explained to me last night that while there was initially going to be a shortage, Wizards quickly realized their impending mistake and ordered an emergency second print run, to be shipped out 3 days after the initial print run. So there will be a crunch, but it'll only last a week. That's what I hear, anyway ... and the guys who run my LGS have always been pretty tuned into that kind of thing and very honest businessmen about it all.
Wow, are you sure they can ramp up so much production in such a short amount of time ? I am not doubting your LGS owner's words, but I thought this type of super efficiency would usually require extra money.
Still, if it is true, and they do make an emergency 2nd print run so quickly. Could quality be compromised ?
Finally, I am worried about one thing. We can safely assume the resulting demand for RTR contributed to current preorder speculative prices. If WOTC manages to pump out the 2nd run, could we be looking at a possible price meltdown if said demand is satisfied ?
Anyhow, full credits to WOTC for helping to smooth out a spiking market. (Although I have no doubt that profit is their primary concern rather then the welfare of the players. )
Since I just did my pre-release convenience price list for the shop for the pre-release tomorrow (so people have an idea of what their cards are/will be worth, this is what I came up with after going over the lower end of the pre-sales from tcgplayer.
Total Set value:
Mythics: $134
Rares: $150
Common/uncommon sets (ebay): $9
Total set value: $293
Total overall average box value:
Mythics: $9/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $40
Rares: $2.80/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $90
Common/uncommon sets: $9x 1.35 = $12
Foils: $8
Total overall average box value: $150 (Yes, thats right, its $150 right now)
This set is rediculous value wise right now. Will be interesting to see what things look like by release day, seems like a good set to buy a box of, thats for sure :).
It'll be an average set eventually. Once the hype dies down (and i still think it is an overhyped set) once the metagame settles. Even with many quality cards in the set (and it is above average I would say), people will still have a surplus of cards. I imagine by Nov. cards will reach their "stable" levels. I don't think the set will sustain so many +$5 rares.
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
The first print run is definitely sold out (basically all have been already allocated to individual stores). If a store sells out of the initial RTR they ordered, they'll be out until the 2nd printing hits.
I'm surprised to see some of those cards starting so low. Only $1.50 for the bomby mythic dragon and only $2 for Isperia? New Niv at only $8? Also I could of swore that just a few days ago, the lowest I could find Deathbringer Shaman for was $15 a piece. But I'm not going to complain if they're that low already! I definitely want a set.
Hopefully the guild packs at the pre-release will make this set a lot cheaper to afford as well. There are definitely a ton of cards I want from this set.
A lot of hidden agendas and personal grudges, some less thinly veiled than others, going around in this thread right now.
Any chance you guys could keep the conversation ONLY to the topic of the thread, which isn't potential supply issues at Wizards? There really could be another thread for that (in fact, there probably is).
I agree, it's just pre-sale madness that make up these prices. In the end, it's all supply and demand. And when there are so much cards available, the price an average box will fetch in singles is almost the price an average box sells for.
It's crazy that shops and sellers need to focus so much on the pre-sales these days to get their profit.
To each their own, as far as pre-sales go. As long as there is demand for pre-sales, there will be plenty of people who pre-sell cards. I personally dont touch pre-sales. I could certainly make more money (most of the time) by pre-selling cards, but I dont want to sell something unless I have the cards in my hands. That, and I wouldnt want to ever short-change my shop stock, which is by far my primary concern, followed by ebaying what excess stock is left after the initial buying frenzy dies down a little and prices are a little more stable.
The sheer amount of box sales of this set, are inevitably going to cause the market (post-release) to be flooded with singles, as Im certain there are plenty of people that are only buying boxes because they are confident that they will be able to flip the contents for a tidy profit right away. With states being so soon after the set release, the flood of singles hitting the secondary market may not put much of a dent in some of the prices, but after states, and after the 2nd print run hits the market, we should see whatever doesnt end up seeing much play, drop rather strongly. Inevitably a $150 average box value is simply not sustainable. The only other times Ive EVER seen that, were with the shortages of m10/Zen. Im sure Wizards likely printed a ton of this set, more than any other before it, and even with that, I wouldnt be surprised if they still needed more. I fully expect RTR to utterly shatter/destroy/decimate/etc all previous sales records, and props to them for not dissapointing with our return to ravnica (no pun intended) :p. The other thing to keep in mind with this set. Is Ive seen a ton, and Im talking no less than 50 old players that have popped into the shop recently because they were excited about hearing that we were going back to ravnica and about how much they enjoyed it the first time around, and how they were looking to get back in. Lots of people that got tired of this last standard, are coming back full force and ready for some INN/RTR standard fun. Everyone is excited about it, which is something I allmost never see, especially so many returning players. Honestly Im scared at seeing whether Ill be able to keep up with the demand for some cards from this set from release day onward. Combine that with States, and its going to be a long (but hopefully profitable!) few weeks of craziness.
Anyhow, I hope you all enjoy your pre-releases (for those that arent allready enjoying them), and Ill be posting updates as things change.
WOWzers, that was a lot of cards to add to inventory!!!
When I add sets to my site, I don't add the crappy commons or uncommons. Rares and mythics all go up, but I leave out the worst of the chaff. Saves room and time, and nobody buys Mind Rot singles anyway.
This was a large set..... and almost every card is worth adding to inventory. Damn. I worked from 10am until 2am. I'm bushed!
So unfortunately I can't do my full write-up tonight. I'll definitely do it in the morning, though. If you'd like a sneak peak at my data, from which I'll be making my first Tally tomorrow, click here. Basically... it's Jace, Vraska, Abrupt Decay, and then the dual lands and Armada Wurm. But I'll have a ton more detail tomorrow along with my usual analysis and *****ing.
Sellers can only sell at a price the buyer will pay, and vice versa. It's supply of the cards and demand of the cards that affects their prices. Nobody is big enough to be a market-maker in Magic singles, not even SCG. The free, and I use that term with resevations and caveats, market is what determins singles prices for magic, not sellers, not buyers.
I hope this isn't meant towards me as I don't have any hidden agendas or personal grudges here.
If it wasn't clear, my comment was meant out of respect for the sellers, that they have a hard time maintaining a good profit margin and thus have to do pre-sale "gouging" to make up for it. I'm not dissing or talking-down the sellers here, if people want their Abrupt Decay for $20 a piece, I won't stop them.
Honestly, its the buyers that tend to gouge themselves a bit, since if they arent willing to pay whatever price the cards are going for, then the price will get lowered so they will sell. In the case of Abrupt Decay, there just so happened to be SO much demand for the card that the price was steadily risen as the cheaper listings got bought up till a price was reaches that they sold, but not so quickly. And yeah, dealing with new sets and tiny margins can certainly be a pain. Some sets are better than others, but a lot dont leave much room for profit. Which is why sets like this have to be taken full advantage of to help pay for the lean times. Well, at least the next set should be good as well (hopefully) :).
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
Indeed, 30 cards (a full page of inventory on my website) are worth opening in a pack right now. There are also a handful of $2.50 and $2 cards on page 2, and browsing lower, not many rares in the 50c crap bin, compared to other recent sets anyway. The set's value does seem concentrated in the rares and uncommons, which is a very nice thing to see. Not that there aren't a few good commons and mythics.
The two planeswalkers take the top 2 spots, which isn't unusual. They are the most likely to drop drastically, statistically speaking. They'll need to prove themselves quickly to stay on top. Abrupt Decay is the top rare, and is certainly getting a lot of attention. Factors going for it are it's in a popular guild, it's an instant, and it's only 2 mana. Factors against are the limitations on targets, being multicolored, countermagic not being a huge force in Standard right now, and not being mythic. It's hard to see it moving up in price from here, but also hard to see it fall much below $15. Many older decks/formats will scoop it up in multiples because countermagic is more prevalent and the mana being easier to come up with. Armada Wurm at 4th simply can't maintain that spot, period. It's an undercosted vanilla fatty, essentially. 10 power for 6 is great, but we've had plenty of 8/8s for 6 and so on, which looked good at first and then rarely saw play. I see this coming WAAAAY down the list. The shocklands are bunched together from 5th to 9th and I don't see them going anywhere. Almost the best lands ever printed, and unlikely to ever be obsoleted, these are the real deal. Angel of Serenity doesn't look very good to me up this high. It's going to see play somewhere, and casual/Angel fans will use it, but unless there'\s a combo I'm not seeing, it should cool. Lotleth Trolls is a lovely little bugger. I'm very very partial to Golgari myself, so I have to be careful not to overvalue it. That said, wow, quite the little package, no? Super cheap, protects himself, evasion, and a built-in engine to grow and trigger other Golgari effects. May cool some if his deck doesn't pan out, but can't go too much lower simply because he's just so, SO undercosted. Could be a staple for many years. Dracogenius is undeniably powerful, just not in the strongest guild, but should maintain a good portion of current price. As for Rakdos's Return, simple utility spells should never be mythic, or even rare. Shame! (Same goes for Sphinx's Revelation.) At $8, return seems overpriced to me. None of the values for X seem overly playable, and I'm not sold on Rakdos as a deck right now. I'm hesitant to pick up any around this price. At 14th spot, Rakdos himself doesn't look very strong either, for similar reasons. Also, I don't see how his ability works in a deck. Swing for 6 damage, then cast a free Wurmcoil Engine? I dunno, seems like win-more. Trostani is hard to read. It has been rising on SCG for the past week, I think they have it at $10 now. Quite potent, and repeatable populate is nice, I'm just not sure how strong it will actually perform. We shall see! Dreadbore is a solid removal spell but at $7, seems pricey. Murder and other cheap versatile removal is reasonably plentiful. Being in 2 colours hurts a removal spell. So does being a Sorcery. Being able to hit planeswalkers gives it an edge, but that edge's size depends on the prevalence of planeswalkers, which can come and go. This could stay hot, or it could dip. Supreme Verdict comes in at 17th, and I believe it may be undercosted. MANY decks all through Magic play Wrath effects, and a huge number of those are white/blue. Additionally, being uncounterable is massive in those older formats. I think players are pricing this as though it's Day of Judgement, which has recently fallen to a very cheap card due to all the reprintings. But this has never been reprinted, the supply we've got is all we'll get, for a very long time or perhaps forever. The demand for this card could push it up above $10 easily. I really don't see it doing poorly. Detention Sphere isn't just rarer than Oblivion Ring, it's more powerful as well. Does the addition of blue hurt it that badly? I guess we'll find out. I love Chromatic Lantern and see it as a huge enabler that will be sought after all through this block. One of the best mana rocks printed in recent years. Deathrite Shaman is interesting. One one hand, cheap and easy to play, 3 interesting abilities. But it's vulnerable, a bit slow, and requires a fair bit of setup before it can do what it wants to do. Being an Elf will boost it with the casual demand, and it's in a great guild, so it won't be worthless. I do see it cooling a bit though. Epic Experiment is weird and I can't really judge it very well. Unless a deck picks it up and abuses it, it may fall from the tally after a few updates. Loxodon Smiter impresses on paper but is mainly just a Watchwolf with +1/+1 for more. Sideboards perhaps? Should cool. Cyclonic Rift is either a splashable Boomerang, or makes Devastation Tide an instant and one-sided for an extra :2mana:, but I'm not sure how well it will be received. Desecration Demon got a lot of hype but surprisingly is far down the list. Has this been playtested and found lacking? Hard to believe 6/6 flying and a small drawback for 4 is weak... but any card that gives your opponent a choice should be regarded skeptically. Mizzium Mortars has 2 modes but not always what you want to draw. Can never hit players. And it's a red rare - probably set for a big drop. Nivmagus Elemental is another one that got a lot of early hype but didn't seem to pan out. Has potential over time, I think, although it does come from a traditionally underplayed guild. Sphinx's Revelation (shouldn't be mythic) is weak. Adding to a blue spell's mana cost not only limits what decks you can play the card in, but of course eats up one of your mana when you're trying to pull off a big X spell. I see it dropping unless Azorius does really well. Ash Zealot is a massively undercosted card and obsoletes dozens of previous red creatures. No more will we have to pay 3 for a 2/2 haste! I think players are undervaluing it because they don't see the 3rd ability as all that useful. Well, perhaps it isn't, at least not right now. But that doesn't make it weak whatsoever. 2/2 for 2 in red is unheard of outside a couple recent cards which are well-played. Haste and first strike on top of that? Yes please. And it's a Human, which could go nicely with some cards from the last block. Jarad has a bunch of nice abilities but I don't see it as terribly powerful. It's mythic, and will have some Zombie and Elf appeal, and it's got good company in this set, but I'm not sure what major deck is going to abuse it. Being legendary also brings down the potential for price spikes, as well. Worldspine Wurm, the biggest creature in the game, seems pretty cheap at $3 to me. that said, I see it going for $2 on eBay so perhaps it won't be on the tally next update. I thought it would have been a bit more popular. Sure goes nicely with Sneak Attack.... heh.
Just off the list are Counterflux, Isperia, Rest in Peace, Utvara Hellkite, and Necropolis Regent.
Uncommon of note are Dryad Militant 1.5, Judge's Familiar 1.25, Treasured Find 1, Call of the Conclave 1, Dreg Mangler 1, Guttersnipe 1, Rakdos Cackler 1, Selesnya Charm 1, Ultimate Price 1, Azorius Charm 0.75, Izzet Charm 0.75, Selesnya Keyrune 0.75, and Slitherhead 0.75.
Some thoughts about other cards I had while adding this set to inventory:
Blistercoil Weird - Currently priced like a junk uncommon. Seems very strong with all the "sorcery or instant spell" effects in those two colours. In many decks it's a 2/2 or even 3/3 with vigilance for 1.
Deadbridge Goliath - Biggest 4 mana creature without drawbacks ever printed.... $1.5 per playset?
Ethereal Armor - Although it's a bit weird that armor could give someone first strike, this is an insanely powerful card. Enchantment decks commonly have 6, 8, 10, or more enchantments in play within the first few turns. +6/+6 for one mana is very fun.
Jarad's Orders - Beautifully designed card. A combo piece that sets up very powerful plays. Worldly Tutor (G), a cantrip (2), and Entomb (B) all in one. Potentially undervalued.
Mana Bloom - At $1 or less could be a sleeper. Accelerates and/or fixes mana starting turn 2 and stays with you all game.
Martial Law - Am I missing something? Why is this so much more mana, and rarer, than Arrest? Because you can change the creature later on?
Pack Rat - I guess Rats are only for casual, but at 25c each this seems cheap. 3rd turn you have 2 2/2s, 4th turn you have 3 3/3s, etc. And that's all without help from other cards, a 1 card engine.
Pithing Needle was $20 until it was reprinted. Now it's 1.50, which shows you what increasing supply does to something, despite demand still being strong.
Precinct Captain - I really love white weenie and this is strong. But it's a bit weird that the soldiers he summons don't have another creature type. They aren't human? If not, what are they?
Righteous Authority - Must be a lot worse in actuality than on paper? 5 mana to draw an extra card each turn, plus a huge pump to your creature.
Stealer of Secrets - "Stealer"? Really? Reminds me of "Beast Attack". Anyway, interestingly prominent crotch-plate and breasts-plate...
Wayfaring Temple - Seems well worth the dollar you'll pay for it. Crusader of Odric plus populate every time he hits the opponent, nice.
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9109007#post9109007
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9111046#post9111046
10/9
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9157097#post9157097
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9157797#post9157797
10/15
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9187857#post9187857
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9188565#post9188565
10/18
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9206020#post9206020
10/28
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9251682#post9251682
11/1
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9267712#post9267712
11/3
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9279340#post9279340
11/6
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9293085#post9293085
11/10
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=9310150#post9310150
11/20
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=9355013&postcount=377
11/27
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=9382101&postcount=400
11/27
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=9382324&postcount=402
4/29
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10131324&postcount=544
5/24
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10237934&postcount=559
6/12
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10319794&postcount=585
7/19
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10473536&postcount=622
8/13/13
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10576371&postcount=633
9/11/13
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10706467&postcount=657
9/17/13
jeffbcrandall - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10731850&postcount=662
1/14/2014
rancored_elf - http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=11533023&postcount=829
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
First Post. Oh so lucky.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I agree, and I think prices will be inflated until after States due to people desperate to get the cards they want for their decks and therefore willing to pay a premium for the opportunity. My advice to anyone not playing at States and wanting to play Standard for a more budget-friendly price would be to temper your enthusiasm until after States happens and therefore after the supply crunch passes.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
I wonder about this.
Are they really that bad at business to dramatically underestimate demand for what we've known for a while to be the most hyped set ever — especially after underestimating demand last year?
There might be something else going on here. Perhaps the set, while valuable, is being massively overhyped.
Practice for Khans of Tarkir Limited:
Draft: (#1) (#2) (#3) (#4) (#5)
It's not overhyped. There are just an enormous amount of constructed playable cards (in all 4 relevant formats) in this set- far more than normal.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Sure. But they surely knew this when they decided how big the print run should be, so it should already have been taken into account.
Another thing to consider: compared to a normal set, more of the key money cards are rare rather than mythic. That may be throwing of some estimates.
Practice for Khans of Tarkir Limited:
Draft: (#1) (#2) (#3) (#4) (#5)
Well, I think one of the issues that make it hard for WOTC to forecast sales would be the increase number of players, as well as increased interest from current/returning players. For instance, I traded in a bunch of T2 staples plus $260 for A CASE of RtR. Previously, I only bought 1 Zendikar booster box, 1 Worldwake fat pack, and 2 Scars booster boxes. Likewise, several other people who normally don't buy booster boxes are splitting A CASE.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=487991
My Sell List:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10893911#post10893911
Wizards doesn't know how many players are out there? Come on, don't be silly.
You can't claim that demand for RTR is high because demand for RTR is high.
The question at hand, which is off-topic for this thread and probably should be split into its own thread, is why does there appear to be a shortage of RTR product when Wizards clearly knew long ago that the set would be in high demand?
.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
Thanks to Gabgabdevo for the awesome sig image!
I'm always looking for foil Madcap Skills and Ghitu Fire-Eater, [trade thread link forthcoming]
I did not say that Wizards doesn't know how many players there are currently, what I meant was Wizards wouldn't be able to know the full extent that RTR will be perceived in the public eyes and attract more new/returning players.
I have no earthly idea what do you mean by this. My point was that the increase demand from people who don't buy products is impossible to predict. I would definitely call BS if someone say before RTR release that the current group of players who don't buy products normally would start buying them products in significant quantity all of a sudden.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=487991
My Sell List:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10893911#post10893911
Wow, are you sure they can ramp up so much production in such a short amount of time ? I am not doubting your LGS owner's words, but I thought this type of super efficiency would usually require extra money.
Still, if it is true, and they do make an emergency 2nd print run so quickly. Could quality be compromised ?
Finally, I am worried about one thing. We can safely assume the resulting demand for RTR contributed to current preorder speculative prices. If WOTC manages to pump out the 2nd run, could we be looking at a possible price meltdown if said demand is satisfied ?
Anyhow, full credits to WOTC for helping to smooth out a spiking market. (Although I have no doubt that profit is their primary concern rather then the welfare of the players. )
Top valued rares/mythics:
Jace, Architect of Thought: $33
Vraska the Unseen: $29
Abrupt Decay: $20
Overgrown tomb: $14
Hallowed Fountain: $12
Steam Vents: $12
Angel of Serenity: $11
Armada Wurm: $11
Blood Crypt: $10
Temple Garden: $10
Loleth Troll: $10
Rakdos's Return: $9
Trosani, Selesnya's Voice: $8
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius: $8
Rakdos, Lord of Riots: $7
Dreadbore: $7
Deathrite Shaman: $5
Detention Sphere: $5
Supreme Verdict: $5
Epic Experiments: $4
Sphinx's Revelation: $4
Chromatic Lantern: $4
Loxodon Smiter: $4
Mizzium Mortars: $4
Cyclonic Rift: $3
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord: $3
Desecration Demon: $2.50
Nivmagus Elemental: $2.50
Rest in Peace: $2.50
Isperia, Supreme Judge: $2
Worldspine Wurm: $2
Ash Zealot: $2
Necropolis Regent: $1.50
Utvara Hellkite: $1.50
Counterflux: $1.50
Pithing Needle: $1.50
Precinct Captain: $1.50
Underworld Connections: $1.50
Everything else is worth $1 or less
Total Set value:
Mythics: $134
Rares: $150
Common/uncommon sets (ebay): $9
Total set value: $293
Total overall average box value:
Mythics: $9/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $40
Rares: $2.80/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $90
Common/uncommon sets: $9x 1.35 = $12
Foils: $8
Total overall average box value: $150 (Yes, thats right, its $150 right now)
This set is rediculous value wise right now. Will be interesting to see what things look like by release day, seems like a good set to buy a box of, thats for sure :).
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Hopefully the guild packs at the pre-release will make this set a lot cheaper to afford as well. There are definitely a ton of cards I want from this set.
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Any chance you guys could keep the conversation ONLY to the topic of the thread, which isn't potential supply issues at Wizards? There really could be another thread for that (in fact, there probably is).
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To each their own, as far as pre-sales go. As long as there is demand for pre-sales, there will be plenty of people who pre-sell cards. I personally dont touch pre-sales. I could certainly make more money (most of the time) by pre-selling cards, but I dont want to sell something unless I have the cards in my hands. That, and I wouldnt want to ever short-change my shop stock, which is by far my primary concern, followed by ebaying what excess stock is left after the initial buying frenzy dies down a little and prices are a little more stable.
The sheer amount of box sales of this set, are inevitably going to cause the market (post-release) to be flooded with singles, as Im certain there are plenty of people that are only buying boxes because they are confident that they will be able to flip the contents for a tidy profit right away. With states being so soon after the set release, the flood of singles hitting the secondary market may not put much of a dent in some of the prices, but after states, and after the 2nd print run hits the market, we should see whatever doesnt end up seeing much play, drop rather strongly. Inevitably a $150 average box value is simply not sustainable. The only other times Ive EVER seen that, were with the shortages of m10/Zen. Im sure Wizards likely printed a ton of this set, more than any other before it, and even with that, I wouldnt be surprised if they still needed more. I fully expect RTR to utterly shatter/destroy/decimate/etc all previous sales records, and props to them for not dissapointing with our return to ravnica (no pun intended) :p. The other thing to keep in mind with this set. Is Ive seen a ton, and Im talking no less than 50 old players that have popped into the shop recently because they were excited about hearing that we were going back to ravnica and about how much they enjoyed it the first time around, and how they were looking to get back in. Lots of people that got tired of this last standard, are coming back full force and ready for some INN/RTR standard fun. Everyone is excited about it, which is something I allmost never see, especially so many returning players. Honestly Im scared at seeing whether Ill be able to keep up with the demand for some cards from this set from release day onward. Combine that with States, and its going to be a long (but hopefully profitable!) few weeks of craziness.
Anyhow, I hope you all enjoy your pre-releases (for those that arent allready enjoying them), and Ill be posting updates as things change.
When I add sets to my site, I don't add the crappy commons or uncommons. Rares and mythics all go up, but I leave out the worst of the chaff. Saves room and time, and nobody buys Mind Rot singles anyway.
This was a large set..... and almost every card is worth adding to inventory. Damn. I worked from 10am until 2am. I'm bushed!
So unfortunately I can't do my full write-up tonight. I'll definitely do it in the morning, though. If you'd like a sneak peak at my data, from which I'll be making my first Tally tomorrow, click here. Basically... it's Jace, Vraska, Abrupt Decay, and then the dual lands and Armada Wurm. But I'll have a ton more detail tomorrow along with my usual analysis and *****ing.
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Nah if I had wanted to say something to you specifically I would have PMd ya.
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Honestly, its the buyers that tend to gouge themselves a bit, since if they arent willing to pay whatever price the cards are going for, then the price will get lowered so they will sell. In the case of Abrupt Decay, there just so happened to be SO much demand for the card that the price was steadily risen as the cheaper listings got bought up till a price was reaches that they sold, but not so quickly. And yeah, dealing with new sets and tiny margins can certainly be a pain. Some sets are better than others, but a lot dont leave much room for profit. Which is why sets like this have to be taken full advantage of to help pay for the lean times. Well, at least the next set should be good as well (hopefully) :).
What an incredible set! We begin with THIRTY cards worth opening:
1) Jace, Architect of Thought (29)
2) Vraska the Unseen (25)
3) Abrupt Decay (18)
4) Armada Wurm (14)
5) Hallowed Fountain (14)
6) Overgrown Tomb (14)
7) Steam Vents (13)
8) Temple Garden (13)
9) Blood Crypt (12)
10) Angel of Serenity (11)
11) Lotleth Troll (11)
12) Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius (8)
13) Rakdos's Return (8)
14) Rakdos, Lord of Riots (8)
15) Trostani, Selesnya's Voice (8)
16) Dreadbore (7)
17) Supreme Verdict (7)
18) Detention Sphere (6)
19) Chromatic Lantern (5)
20) Deathrite Shaman (5)
21) Epic Experiment (4.5)
22) Loxodon Smiter (4.5)
23) Cyclonic Rift (4)
24) Desecration Demon (3.5)
25) Mizzium Mortars (3.5)
26) Nivmagus Elemental (3.5)
27) Sphinx's Revelation (3.5)
28) Ash Zealot (3)
29) Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord (3)
30) Worldspine Wurm (3)
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
Indeed, 30 cards (a full page of inventory on my website) are worth opening in a pack right now. There are also a handful of $2.50 and $2 cards on page 2, and browsing lower, not many rares in the 50c crap bin, compared to other recent sets anyway. The set's value does seem concentrated in the rares and uncommons, which is a very nice thing to see. Not that there aren't a few good commons and mythics.
The two planeswalkers take the top 2 spots, which isn't unusual. They are the most likely to drop drastically, statistically speaking. They'll need to prove themselves quickly to stay on top. Abrupt Decay is the top rare, and is certainly getting a lot of attention. Factors going for it are it's in a popular guild, it's an instant, and it's only 2 mana. Factors against are the limitations on targets, being multicolored, countermagic not being a huge force in Standard right now, and not being mythic. It's hard to see it moving up in price from here, but also hard to see it fall much below $15. Many older decks/formats will scoop it up in multiples because countermagic is more prevalent and the mana being easier to come up with. Armada Wurm at 4th simply can't maintain that spot, period. It's an undercosted vanilla fatty, essentially. 10 power for 6 is great, but we've had plenty of 8/8s for 6 and so on, which looked good at first and then rarely saw play. I see this coming WAAAAY down the list. The shocklands are bunched together from 5th to 9th and I don't see them going anywhere. Almost the best lands ever printed, and unlikely to ever be obsoleted, these are the real deal. Angel of Serenity doesn't look very good to me up this high. It's going to see play somewhere, and casual/Angel fans will use it, but unless there'\s a combo I'm not seeing, it should cool. Lotleth Trolls is a lovely little bugger. I'm very very partial to Golgari myself, so I have to be careful not to overvalue it. That said, wow, quite the little package, no? Super cheap, protects himself, evasion, and a built-in engine to grow and trigger other Golgari effects. May cool some if his deck doesn't pan out, but can't go too much lower simply because he's just so, SO undercosted. Could be a staple for many years. Dracogenius is undeniably powerful, just not in the strongest guild, but should maintain a good portion of current price. As for Rakdos's Return, simple utility spells should never be mythic, or even rare. Shame! (Same goes for Sphinx's Revelation.) At $8, return seems overpriced to me. None of the values for X seem overly playable, and I'm not sold on Rakdos as a deck right now. I'm hesitant to pick up any around this price. At 14th spot, Rakdos himself doesn't look very strong either, for similar reasons. Also, I don't see how his ability works in a deck. Swing for 6 damage, then cast a free Wurmcoil Engine? I dunno, seems like win-more. Trostani is hard to read. It has been rising on SCG for the past week, I think they have it at $10 now. Quite potent, and repeatable populate is nice, I'm just not sure how strong it will actually perform. We shall see! Dreadbore is a solid removal spell but at $7, seems pricey. Murder and other cheap versatile removal is reasonably plentiful. Being in 2 colours hurts a removal spell. So does being a Sorcery. Being able to hit planeswalkers gives it an edge, but that edge's size depends on the prevalence of planeswalkers, which can come and go. This could stay hot, or it could dip. Supreme Verdict comes in at 17th, and I believe it may be undercosted. MANY decks all through Magic play Wrath effects, and a huge number of those are white/blue. Additionally, being uncounterable is massive in those older formats. I think players are pricing this as though it's Day of Judgement, which has recently fallen to a very cheap card due to all the reprintings. But this has never been reprinted, the supply we've got is all we'll get, for a very long time or perhaps forever. The demand for this card could push it up above $10 easily. I really don't see it doing poorly. Detention Sphere isn't just rarer than Oblivion Ring, it's more powerful as well. Does the addition of blue hurt it that badly? I guess we'll find out. I love Chromatic Lantern and see it as a huge enabler that will be sought after all through this block. One of the best mana rocks printed in recent years. Deathrite Shaman is interesting. One one hand, cheap and easy to play, 3 interesting abilities. But it's vulnerable, a bit slow, and requires a fair bit of setup before it can do what it wants to do. Being an Elf will boost it with the casual demand, and it's in a great guild, so it won't be worthless. I do see it cooling a bit though. Epic Experiment is weird and I can't really judge it very well. Unless a deck picks it up and abuses it, it may fall from the tally after a few updates. Loxodon Smiter impresses on paper but is mainly just a Watchwolf with +1/+1 for more. Sideboards perhaps? Should cool. Cyclonic Rift is either a splashable Boomerang, or makes Devastation Tide an instant and one-sided for an extra :2mana:, but I'm not sure how well it will be received. Desecration Demon got a lot of hype but surprisingly is far down the list. Has this been playtested and found lacking? Hard to believe 6/6 flying and a small drawback for 4 is weak... but any card that gives your opponent a choice should be regarded skeptically. Mizzium Mortars has 2 modes but not always what you want to draw. Can never hit players. And it's a red rare - probably set for a big drop. Nivmagus Elemental is another one that got a lot of early hype but didn't seem to pan out. Has potential over time, I think, although it does come from a traditionally underplayed guild. Sphinx's Revelation (shouldn't be mythic) is weak. Adding to a blue spell's mana cost not only limits what decks you can play the card in, but of course eats up one of your mana when you're trying to pull off a big X spell. I see it dropping unless Azorius does really well. Ash Zealot is a massively undercosted card and obsoletes dozens of previous red creatures. No more will we have to pay 3 for a 2/2 haste! I think players are undervaluing it because they don't see the 3rd ability as all that useful. Well, perhaps it isn't, at least not right now. But that doesn't make it weak whatsoever. 2/2 for 2 in red is unheard of outside a couple recent cards which are well-played. Haste and first strike on top of that? Yes please. And it's a Human, which could go nicely with some cards from the last block. Jarad has a bunch of nice abilities but I don't see it as terribly powerful. It's mythic, and will have some Zombie and Elf appeal, and it's got good company in this set, but I'm not sure what major deck is going to abuse it. Being legendary also brings down the potential for price spikes, as well. Worldspine Wurm, the biggest creature in the game, seems pretty cheap at $3 to me. that said, I see it going for $2 on eBay so perhaps it won't be on the tally next update. I thought it would have been a bit more popular. Sure goes nicely with Sneak Attack.... heh.
Just off the list are Counterflux, Isperia, Rest in Peace, Utvara Hellkite, and Necropolis Regent.
Uncommon of note are Dryad Militant 1.5, Judge's Familiar 1.25, Treasured Find 1, Call of the Conclave 1, Dreg Mangler 1, Guttersnipe 1, Rakdos Cackler 1, Selesnya Charm 1, Ultimate Price 1, Azorius Charm 0.75, Izzet Charm 0.75, Selesnya Keyrune 0.75, and Slitherhead 0.75.
Some thoughts about other cards I had while adding this set to inventory:
Blistercoil Weird - Currently priced like a junk uncommon. Seems very strong with all the "sorcery or instant spell" effects in those two colours. In many decks it's a 2/2 or even 3/3 with vigilance for 1.
Deadbridge Goliath - Biggest 4 mana creature without drawbacks ever printed.... $1.5 per playset?
Ethereal Armor - Although it's a bit weird that armor could give someone first strike, this is an insanely powerful card. Enchantment decks commonly have 6, 8, 10, or more enchantments in play within the first few turns. +6/+6 for one mana is very fun.
Jarad's Orders - Beautifully designed card. A combo piece that sets up very powerful plays. Worldly Tutor (G), a cantrip (2), and Entomb (B) all in one. Potentially undervalued.
Mana Bloom - At $1 or less could be a sleeper. Accelerates and/or fixes mana starting turn 2 and stays with you all game.
Martial Law - Am I missing something? Why is this so much more mana, and rarer, than Arrest? Because you can change the creature later on?
Pack Rat - I guess Rats are only for casual, but at 25c each this seems cheap. 3rd turn you have 2 2/2s, 4th turn you have 3 3/3s, etc. And that's all without help from other cards, a 1 card engine.
Pithing Needle was $20 until it was reprinted. Now it's 1.50, which shows you what increasing supply does to something, despite demand still being strong.
Precinct Captain - I really love white weenie and this is strong. But it's a bit weird that the soldiers he summons don't have another creature type. They aren't human? If not, what are they?
Righteous Authority - Must be a lot worse in actuality than on paper? 5 mana to draw an extra card each turn, plus a huge pump to your creature.
Stealer of Secrets - "Stealer"? Really? Reminds me of "Beast Attack". Anyway, interestingly prominent crotch-plate and breasts-plate...
Wayfaring Temple - Seems well worth the dollar you'll pay for it. Crusader of Odric plus populate every time he hits the opponent, nice.
The next update will be in 24 to 48 hours. Enjoy!
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