As always my prices come from the low end of ebay buy it nows (emphasis on playset/4) and the lower end of tcgplayer (with greater emphasis to ebay). In the case of this update, Ill be including the following additions ** denotes where the price I have listed is higher than at least ebay, due to low supply from high sales volume at the shop I run/own the magic singles collection for. And * denotes where the price I listed is lower than ebay due to low demand thus far at the shop. (And thats without pre-sales, and after openning over 130 booster boxes.)
Total Set value:
Mythics: $153
Rares: $141
Common/uncommon sets (ebay): $10
Total set value: $304
Total overall average box value:
Mythics: $10.2/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $46
Rares: $2.67/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $84
Common/uncommon sets: $10x 1.35 = $13
Foils: $7
Total overall average box value: $150
If you see the cards with **, then Ive been selling through those very well since the set released. Otherwise, a lot of cards have sold very well from this set. I had a record day for sales on release day, and Ive had a record week of sales this last week (Saturday-Friday), and sales continue to look to remain strong. The box value is still insane at $150/box. Packs/boxes/fat packs/etc all continue to sell well. Though our distributors are sold out of RTR, we are still able to get a maximum 3 cases per week through wizards, at least until the next print run comes out, or I suppose they run out (which they seem to have assured us, they shouldnt. Commons and uncommons from the set have also sold very well. This set is so well-rounded and full of great and popular cards its rather mindblowing. Anyhow, more specifics than that will have to wait for me to have additional free time. Just did a full repricing of RTR and figured I could take a few minutes to type it up for you :).
I disagree - it's because of the "presale inflation." Prices would have dropped over a week ago but supply concerns kept them close to presale prices. Most have barely moved from "presale prices" which goes to prove there are supply concerns whether that be from high demand or shortages.
Excess supply won't affect prices for at least another month, imo.
Presale inflation is completely due to there being zero supply on the market before the set comes out. Therefore, the actual release starts the downward trend because supply is hitting the market. Which is exactly what I'm saying. We're just seeing that trend continue its slow inexorable decline.
Presale inflation is completely due to there being zero supply on the market before the set comes out. Therefore, the actual release starts the downward trend because supply is hitting the market. Which is exactly what I'm saying. We're just seeing that trend continue its slow inexorable decline.
Which is what I said... we are getting into semantics. My point being - go compare Innistrad to RtR which are similar in many facets. You will see that Innistrad dropped much faster (as have almost all "presale prices").
So we are STILL experiencing some kind of shortage (again, semantics). We have a LONG way to go as box EV values will drop into the ~$100 range. For instance, I see the lands going below $10 especially after MTGO redemptions.
But for the record, your first sentence misses a huge factor. Prerelease prices are not only due to zero supply but speculation of demand/usefullness of the card which adjusts itself usually very quickly - this is why I mentioned the inflation specifically because on some cards it can be significant. However, now we are getting into theory when we should probably spend more time on actual #s such as price, availability, and trends.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
Which is what I said... we are getting into semantics. My point being - go compare Innistrad to RtR which are similar in many facets. You will see that Innistrad dropped much faster (as have almost all "presale prices").
So we are STILL experiencing some kind of shortage (again, semantics). We have a LONG way to go as box EV values will drop into the ~$100 range. For instance, I see the lands going below $10 especially after MTGO redemptions.
But for the record, your first sentence misses a huge factor. Prerelease prices are not only due to zero supply but speculation of demand/usefullness of the card which adjusts itself usually very quickly - this is why I mentioned the inflation specifically because on some cards it can be significant. However, now we are getting into theory when we should probably spend more time on actual #s such as price, availability, and trends.
I agree with most of your statements with exception to the one concerning Shocklands. I just like to point out, that it is not entirely unreasonable to assume that every Player would want to keep at least 1 Playset of every Shockland for himself. The reason being is there are staples across multiple format. As such, the psychological memory price for shocks might be more stagnant than you realize.
Unless they reprint Shocklands like they do the M10 lands, I will stick my neck out and predict that the price erosion for the Shocks will be considerably slower than every other non utilized rare RTR card even after redemptions, and the subsequent reprinting of the set. After all, only one thing is certain, you can never have too many shocks.
The situation in Europe is much different. All shocklands bar Hallowed Fountain are all selling for less than $9. I expect the price to crash even more when MTGO redemptions and more drafting happens.
Even overgrown tomb? That seems rather surprising. The other three I could see below, simply due to less demand in europe than over here perhaps. And are we talking $9 in US Dollars, or $9 in Euros? That does make a bit of a difference.
While, like all the shocklands, Ive sold a reasonable number of them. BY FAR the lowest selling shockland, has been Steam Vents. A lot of people picked up the old guildpact ones off of me before the rotation, and now the demand just isnt there. Ive had more traded in than Ive sold, and that simply isnt the case with the rest of them. Hallowed Fountain, and Overgrown Tomb have both sold VERY well, Temple Garden and Blood Crypt have also sold well, but Steam Vents just hasnt put up the same numbers. U/R just doesnt seem to have the oomph that the other color combinations have as far as overall demand or use in multiple decks right now. That could of course change, now that we have states information rolling in, but at least thats been what Ive seen thus far.
A card I've been keeping my eyes on is Ash Zealot. Right now I think it is the perfect time to pick up this card as RDW is off the radar as it's overshadowed by Zombies. Whether in this block or next, RDW will inevitabily become a tier one deck again and this guy's popularity along with its price will at least double.
Also currently SCG has this card as its best seller.
A card I've been keeping my eyes on is Ash Zealot. Right now I think it is the perfect time to pick up this card as RDW is off the radar as it's overshadowed by Zombies. Whether in this block or next, RDW will inevitabily become a tier one deck again and this guy's popularity along with its price will at least double.
Also currently SCG has this card as its best seller.
I agree with this; it is at least a $5 card. If you can get them cheaper I would do it as it appears to be the best 2 drop RR in the game overall. It screws over Golgari graveyard tactics, and it's the only the fastest 2 CMC creature in red for damage?
The Angel is now $25 on SCG, not sure if that means much though.
Ok why is the Angel so high? She seems like pain in the arse to cast and what deck is using her? I do think that Ash Zealot will see play in RDW or even burn. I also like the nivmagus elemental too.
Ok why is the Angel so high? She seems like pain in the arse to cast and what deck is using her? I do think that Ash Zealot will see play in RDW or even burn. I also like the nivmagus elemental too.
Ok why is the Angel so high? She seems like pain in the arse to cast and what deck is using her? I do think that Ash Zealot will see play in RDW or even burn. I also like the nivmagus elemental too.
Look no further than Avacyn, Angel of Hope for your answer. This card has seen zero standard play yet still commands a $10+ price tag. The same thing will happen with Angel of Serenity only it will stay even higher due to seeing play.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Look at my name...what did you expect?
Thank you WOTC for introducing the Modern format, a format where all the whiners can enjoy a level playing field and where they can play with none of the best cards of all time!
Angel is an amazing tempo engine that can either disrupt your opponents board state and/or provide you card advantage out of the GY. It's seeing play in multiple archtypes, even that "G/W/B Tokens" deck that won the last open played one in the main. It's the kind of card people want to build decks around (competitive and casual), its an angel, and its mythic.
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
No cards crossed the $3 threshold in either direction this update, so there are still 25 cards worth opening in a booster pack.
Jace seems stable at $40 and top spot. I've had 5 copies up on my site for over a week at that price (including shipping) and they haven't been touched, so at the very least I can say the price doesn't seem to be moving up from 40 right now. Angel of Serenity seems comfortable in 2nd spot, and gained a buck to $22 this update. I pulled a foil copy which I'll be putting on ebay, looks like they're going for about $50. Vraska is still at $19 and 3rd but I haven't heard much hype about it, and I know Golgari is cooling a bit in general right now, so perhaps it'll move lower. Armada Wurm gained a buck, although I continue to believe it's extremely overvalued and should fall well below $10 soon. The shockduals all stayed stable or gained in price this update, remarkable for rares at this point in a set's life cycle. I'm selling out of them quickly even though I've ensured I'm pricing them on the high side of average. I'll sell out, I always do sell out of playable rare land cycles. Abrupt Decay finally started to sell a bit for me when I dropped it to $10 so I'll keep it there for now. Rakdos's Return is the hot card this update, although I'm not sure why. It jumped from $6.50 to $9 (StarCityGames has it for $15). In my opinion, it could be a common. There's nothing complicated, legendary, abusive-in-multiples, or powerful about it. It's extremely inefficient (and narrow) burn, and mediocre discard at best. What a disgrace of a design, and for some reason massively overpriced right now! Detention Sphere is a strong seller and is holding the $7 price tag, which tells me it may be in for a rise soon. 3 mana to deal with any permanent, in the control colours, of course it's going to see play. Lotleth Troll continues to slip although I see it as a very powerful 2 drop, and I think it has a good future. Deathrite Shaman and Rakdos are warming up right now although to be honest I'm not sure why. The rest of the tally was pretty flat.
Overall the set has been selling well. I'm waiting to hear back about my 3rd and 4th cases, hopefully they won't be delayed much longer, and hopefully I won't have to pay too much for them!
Deathrite Shaman and Rakdos are warming up right now although to be honest I'm not sure why.
Not that it matters much, but I personally feel that Deathrite Shaman is the best [non-land] card in the set across all formats*. I'm seeing lots of Modern lists in Junk and Jund colors using him in 4's, and he's been a winner for me in playtesting as well. He can easily take 4, 6, 8+ life from an opponent over the course of a game if left unanswered, all while ramping you up and helping offset painful mana bases and Dark Confidants. He's already become a "kill on sight" card in my matches.
* Edit: Meaning best all-around when considering all formats, not the best card in the set in every format individually.
Rakdos's Return is the hot card this update, although I'm not sure why. It jumped from $6.50 to $9 (StarCityGames has it for $15). In my opinion, it could be a common. There's nothing complicated, legendary, abusive-in-multiples, or powerful about it. It's extremely inefficient (and narrow) burn, and mediocre discard at best. What a disgrace of a design, and for some reason massively overpriced right now!
The card blows up PW-based control decks like nothing else.
Not that it matters much, but I personally feel that Deathrite Shaman is the best [non-land] card in the set across all formats*
Focusing on the shocklands, I have a very strong suspicions that the shockland prices have pretty much closed to bottomed out. The exception being Steam Vents, but I guess it is only because the correct home has not been found for them.
The psychological barrier floor price for them seems to be higher then I expected. (Guess people started the hoarding early) Maybe we have to adjust for inflation too.
If the store owner says that I can't trade in the premises, I'll just go outside. If he says that I can't trade within 10m of his premises, I'll go to 11 meters. If he says that he doesn't want to see me trading, I will put a basket over his head and continue trading.
Yes, he's a local legend. He's only known to take his clothes off before he goes into the Ladies' Lockerroom. Nobody knows what he does in there because he's invisible, but it's almost certainly tons of masturbating.
Rakdos's Return is the hot card this update, although I'm not sure why. It jumped from $6.50 to $9 (StarCityGames has it for $15). In my opinion, it could be a common. There's nothing complicated, legendary, abusive-in-multiples, or powerful about it. It's extremely inefficient (and narrow) burn, and mediocre discard at best. What a disgrace of a design, and for some reason massively overpriced right now!
The price seems pretty steep in comparison to MCM prices in europe, but the card has risen in price here as well. And I can see why, I'm bold enough to say it's the best card against control for any RB(x) decks to run. At least all Standard Jund Midrange decks run it either MD or SB. It's far from mediocre, it's very powerful of a card.
If the store owner says that I can't trade in the premises, I'll just go outside. If he says that I can't trade within 10m of his premises, I'll go to 11 meters. If he says that he doesn't want to see me trading, I will put a basket over his head and continue trading.
Yes, he's a local legend. He's only known to take his clothes off before he goes into the Ladies' Lockerroom. Nobody knows what he does in there because he's invisible, but it's almost certainly tons of masturbating.
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Top valued rares/mythics:
Jace, Architect of Thought: $45**
Vraska the Unseen: $18
Angel of Serenity: $18*
Armada Wurm: $18**
Overgrown tomb: $14
Hallowed Fountain: $14
Trosani, Selesnya's Voice: $12
Abrupt Decay: $11
Steam Vents: $11
Blood Crypt: $11
Temple Garden: $11
Loleth Troll: $8
Rakdos's Return: $8
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius: $7.50**
Rakdos, Lord of Riots: $7**
Dreadbore: $6
Detention Sphere: $6
Supreme Verdict: $6**
Deathrite Shaman: $5
Sphinx's Revelation: $5
Loxodon Smiter: $4
Mizzium Mortars: $4
Cyclonic Rift: $4**
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord: $4**
Chromatic Lantern: $3
Epic Experiments: $3
Desecration Demon: $2.50
Isperia, Supreme Judge: $2
Worldspine Wurm: $2
Ash Zealot: $2
Necropolis Regent: $2
Utvara Hellkite: $2
Everything else is worth less than $2
Total Set value:
Mythics: $153
Rares: $141
Common/uncommon sets (ebay): $10
Total set value: $304
Total overall average box value:
Mythics: $10.2/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $46
Rares: $2.67/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $84
Common/uncommon sets: $10x 1.35 = $13
Foils: $7
Total overall average box value: $150
If you see the cards with **, then Ive been selling through those very well since the set released. Otherwise, a lot of cards have sold very well from this set. I had a record day for sales on release day, and Ive had a record week of sales this last week (Saturday-Friday), and sales continue to look to remain strong. The box value is still insane at $150/box. Packs/boxes/fat packs/etc all continue to sell well. Though our distributors are sold out of RTR, we are still able to get a maximum 3 cases per week through wizards, at least until the next print run comes out, or I suppose they run out (which they seem to have assured us, they shouldnt. Commons and uncommons from the set have also sold very well. This set is so well-rounded and full of great and popular cards its rather mindblowing. Anyhow, more specifics than that will have to wait for me to have additional free time. Just did a full repricing of RTR and figured I could take a few minutes to type it up for you :).
Presale inflation is completely due to there being zero supply on the market before the set comes out. Therefore, the actual release starts the downward trend because supply is hitting the market. Which is exactly what I'm saying. We're just seeing that trend continue its slow inexorable decline.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Which is what I said... we are getting into semantics. My point being - go compare Innistrad to RtR which are similar in many facets. You will see that Innistrad dropped much faster (as have almost all "presale prices").
So we are STILL experiencing some kind of shortage (again, semantics). We have a LONG way to go as box EV values will drop into the ~$100 range. For instance, I see the lands going below $10 especially after MTGO redemptions.
But for the record, your first sentence misses a huge factor. Prerelease prices are not only due to zero supply but speculation of demand/usefullness of the card which adjusts itself usually very quickly - this is why I mentioned the inflation specifically because on some cards it can be significant. However, now we are getting into theory when we should probably spend more time on actual #s such as price, availability, and trends.
I agree with most of your statements with exception to the one concerning Shocklands. I just like to point out, that it is not entirely unreasonable to assume that every Player would want to keep at least 1 Playset of every Shockland for himself. The reason being is there are staples across multiple format. As such, the psychological memory price for shocks might be more stagnant than you realize.
Unless they reprint Shocklands like they do the M10 lands, I will stick my neck out and predict that the price erosion for the Shocks will be considerably slower than every other non utilized rare RTR card even after redemptions, and the subsequent reprinting of the set. After all, only one thing is certain, you can never have too many shocks.
Even overgrown tomb? That seems rather surprising. The other three I could see below, simply due to less demand in europe than over here perhaps. And are we talking $9 in US Dollars, or $9 in Euros? That does make a bit of a difference.
These seem to be the prices on margiccardmarket as well. Not bad actually. Might pick up a couple.
I find it weird that Vents are so low. Blue duals are usually popular. I guess Izzet decks haven't quite picked up yet.
Top 5 RTR by avg price in TCGPlayer:
1) Jace ~ $48
2) Angel of Serenity ~ $22
3) Vraska ~ $21
4) Armada Wurm ~ $18
5) Overgrown Tomb ~ $17
The only U/R decks seeing play are the WUR ones. U/R just doesn't have the creature base the other combos do right now.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Wouldn't they drive up Steam Vents by now?
While, like all the shocklands, Ive sold a reasonable number of them. BY FAR the lowest selling shockland, has been Steam Vents. A lot of people picked up the old guildpact ones off of me before the rotation, and now the demand just isnt there. Ive had more traded in than Ive sold, and that simply isnt the case with the rest of them. Hallowed Fountain, and Overgrown Tomb have both sold VERY well, Temple Garden and Blood Crypt have also sold well, but Steam Vents just hasnt put up the same numbers. U/R just doesnt seem to have the oomph that the other color combinations have as far as overall demand or use in multiple decks right now. That could of course change, now that we have states information rolling in, but at least thats been what Ive seen thus far.
Also currently SCG has this card as its best seller.
I agree with this; it is at least a $5 card. If you can get them cheaper I would do it as it appears to be the best 2 drop RR in the game overall. It screws over Golgari graveyard tactics, and it's the only the fastest 2 CMC creature in red for damage?
The Angel is now $25 on SCG, not sure if that means much though.
It has an immediate impact on the board and is very flexible.
Best Reanimator target in Standard by a mile.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Look no further than Avacyn, Angel of Hope for your answer. This card has seen zero standard play yet still commands a $10+ price tag. The same thing will happen with Angel of Serenity only it will stay even higher due to seeing play.
Thank you WOTC for introducing the Modern format, a format where all the whiners can enjoy a level playing field and where they can play with none of the best cards of all time!
Trends emerging:
1) Jace Architect of Thought (40) / /
2) Angel of Serenity (22) / /
3) Vraska the Unseen (19) / /
4) Armada Wurm (15) / /
5) Hallowed Fountain (14) / /
6) Overgrown Tomb (14) / /
7) Blood Crypt (12) / /
8) Temple Garden (12) / /
9) Steam Vents (11) / /
10) Trostani Selesnya's Voice (11) / /
11) Abrupt Decay (10.5) / /
12) Rakdos's Return (9) / /
13) Detention Sphere (7) / /
14) Lotleth Troll (6.5) / /
15) Dreadbore (6) / /
16) Niv-Mizzet Dracogenius (6) / /
17) Rakdos Lord of Riots (6) / /
18) Deathrite Shaman (5.5) / /
19) Supreme Verdict (5.5) / /
20) Sphinx's Revelation (5) / /
21) Chromatic Lantern (4.25) / /
22) Loxodon Smiter (4) / /
23) Mizzium Mortars (4) / /
24) Cyclonic Rift (3.5) / /
25) Jarad Golgari Lich Lord (3.25) / /
The card's most recent move is on right. means no movement. is a card that wasn't on the list last update. This is the update's hottest mover. (#) is price in CND incl. shipping here.
No cards crossed the $3 threshold in either direction this update, so there are still 25 cards worth opening in a booster pack.
Jace seems stable at $40 and top spot. I've had 5 copies up on my site for over a week at that price (including shipping) and they haven't been touched, so at the very least I can say the price doesn't seem to be moving up from 40 right now. Angel of Serenity seems comfortable in 2nd spot, and gained a buck to $22 this update. I pulled a foil copy which I'll be putting on ebay, looks like they're going for about $50. Vraska is still at $19 and 3rd but I haven't heard much hype about it, and I know Golgari is cooling a bit in general right now, so perhaps it'll move lower. Armada Wurm gained a buck, although I continue to believe it's extremely overvalued and should fall well below $10 soon. The shockduals all stayed stable or gained in price this update, remarkable for rares at this point in a set's life cycle. I'm selling out of them quickly even though I've ensured I'm pricing them on the high side of average. I'll sell out, I always do sell out of playable rare land cycles. Abrupt Decay finally started to sell a bit for me when I dropped it to $10 so I'll keep it there for now. Rakdos's Return is the hot card this update, although I'm not sure why. It jumped from $6.50 to $9 (StarCityGames has it for $15). In my opinion, it could be a common. There's nothing complicated, legendary, abusive-in-multiples, or powerful about it. It's extremely inefficient (and narrow) burn, and mediocre discard at best. What a disgrace of a design, and for some reason massively overpriced right now! Detention Sphere is a strong seller and is holding the $7 price tag, which tells me it may be in for a rise soon. 3 mana to deal with any permanent, in the control colours, of course it's going to see play. Lotleth Troll continues to slip although I see it as a very powerful 2 drop, and I think it has a good future. Deathrite Shaman and Rakdos are warming up right now although to be honest I'm not sure why. The rest of the tally was pretty flat.
Overall the set has been selling well. I'm waiting to hear back about my 3rd and 4th cases, hopefully they won't be delayed much longer, and hopefully I won't have to pay too much for them!
.
Not that it matters much, but I personally feel that Deathrite Shaman is the best [non-land] card in the set across all formats*. I'm seeing lots of Modern lists in Junk and Jund colors using him in 4's, and he's been a winner for me in playtesting as well. He can easily take 4, 6, 8+ life from an opponent over the course of a game if left unanswered, all while ramping you up and helping offset painful mana bases and Dark Confidants. He's already become a "kill on sight" card in my matches.
* Edit: Meaning best all-around when considering all formats, not the best card in the set in every format individually.
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Completely agree with this assessment.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Focusing on the shocklands, I have a very strong suspicions that the shockland prices have pretty much closed to bottomed out. The exception being Steam Vents, but I guess it is only because the correct home has not been found for them.
The psychological barrier floor price for them seems to be higher then I expected. (Guess people started the hoarding early) Maybe we have to adjust for inflation too.
The price seems pretty steep in comparison to MCM prices in europe, but the card has risen in price here as well. And I can see why, I'm bold enough to say it's the best card against control for any RB(x) decks to run. At least all Standard Jund Midrange decks run it either MD or SB. It's far from mediocre, it's very powerful of a card.
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