I'm thinking, if one or two of the Scars PWs see a lot of play at the Worlds (the next premiere standard event), they could see a jump in value. Time to start following some people on Twitter, I guess.
I expect Koth to decline a lil more, but when his time comes, he has the potential to shoot like a rocket, being the red staple he is. Right now, you can do the same experiment you could do with jace, throw 4 in any red based deck, and see what happens. The results wont be bad if you ask me!
Koth is greatly underperforming based on the pre-sale hype for him; he's only consistently in one aggressive red deck in standard (Cedric Red), while he's too expensive/slow (or too "doesn't do anything") for other mostly-red decks, like Artifact Red, Goblins, and B/Koros.
Speaking of red staples, probably there not too much way up for him since hes a rare, but i am pretty impressed with spikeshot elder.
This is a card I'm surprised we haven't seen more movement out of; Memoricide got a price spike, granted it's splashable, but Spikeshot is in virtually every deck that plays a Red base. Spikeshot Elder is probably one of the best rares in the set, certainly in the top 10, and I would wager in the top 5. I would defend that the card would follow a Goblin Guide-like price curve if it even remotely garnered Guide's price tag.
Red decks need to be more relevant in Standard before anything significant happens with the Elder.
Koth is greatly underperforming based on the pre-sale hype for him; he's only consistently in one aggressive red deck in standard (Cedric Red), while he's too expensive/slow (or too "doesn't do anything") for other mostly-red decks, like Artifact Red, Goblins, and B/Koros.
Don't think you could be any more wrong about Koth.
If Koth can find his way into a multi-color numerous finish Top-8 deck (valakut), he will mostly likely find his way into more R/X deck in the next 2 years. And Koth is in way more decks than Cedric Red though it does seem to utilize him the most. Check those SBs, his ultimate is so fast - it's perfect against control. Koth is expensive/slow... seriously?! Maybe compared to a Goblin Guide but I can not think of one other red card (ok... perhaps bolt) that is more efficient. Just curious but if Koth is underperforming his presale hype... what league is Venser and Elspeth in?
IMO, speculate on those artifacts in Scars. If the next two sets follow the seemingly inevitable trend, artifacts is where it's at. Metalcraft is the tricky thing. Just how effective will this be in the near future? Indomitable Angel and the like could easily join Artifact-Gravy-Train very soon.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
Don't think you could be any more wrong about Koth.
Are you basing your data on a cross-section of top finishing decks at tournaments, or are you basing that on one-off rogue appearances of a card once or twice in random events?
Koth does not regularly appear in MODO queues in any deck aside from Cedric Red, and does not regularly appear in any recent $5k event top 8s. He makes seldom 2-of appearances in the occasional RUG-or-similar deck list, but if card values were based around a card randomly appearing once or twice in a deck, Captivating Vampire would have made me rich and Venser wouldn't be a ~$16 card.
Koth suffers most of the same problems Sarkhan Vol did, with the benefit that he does offer the potential to protect himself (the "open Mountain" argument) and/or serve an aggressive function in aggressive decks. The problem with the latter is that the really aggressive decks in the format are more aggressive than a 4 mana 4/4-haste and don't need a 4-drop.
You have absolutely no idea what will be printed for or against Red and Red decks over the next two years, so preemptively speculating on a card that is currently losing value and presently hasn't found a major tournament foothold to stabilize in seems like a genuinely bad bet to take, unless you're banking on getting his value to stabilize/go up through Extended. I'd be willing to concede that Koth is probably a wonder in a Ball Lightning Red deck.
Quote from extremeicon »
Just curious but if Koth is underperforming his presale hype... what league is Venser and Elspeth in?
... I don't even... Each card is less than half of its prerelease value and falling. They're not even playing the same sport.
Quote from extremeicon »
IMO, speculate on those artifacts in Scars. If the next two sets follow the seemingly inevitable trend, artifacts is where it's at. Metalcraft is the tricky thing. Just how effective will this be in the near future? Indomitable Angel and the like could easily join Artifact-Gravy-Train very soon.
When has a card that doesn't mesh with the plan of a "theme deck" ever been a hot performer because of the existence of that theme deck? Your speculation here seems way off, especially knowing the current power level of 4-drops makes being a 4/4 flier for 4 not relevant enough.
Ezuri's Brigade, Precursor Golem, Tempered Steel, Grand Architect, and Necrotic Ooze have the chance of going up depending on this block or future combo.
Ezuri's Brigade, Precursor Golem, Tempered Steel, Grand Architect, and Necrotic Ooze have the chance of going up depending on this block or future combo.
Yeah, it's seeing more play and is versatile. Seems very good in a Legacy blue counterspell deck where you can set it and forget it (until your next turn of course).
It's almost all speculation, Kijin, and maybe I should have not posted in this thread but many others were doing the same.
Koth is just so amazing as many articles elude to.
Metalcraft especially with certain cards (such as Etched Champion, Indo Angel...) are oozing "awesomeness". Let more artifacts come and we will see. Do not see how they won't be relevant after Zendikar rotates and we are left with almost all artifacts.
Moral of the story... absurd investment potential here with everything so low right now.
*and many of these cards are starting to find nice homes in Extended/Legacy which can also cause some jumps... some maybe very soon
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
It's almost all speculation, Kijin, and maybe I should have not posted in this thread but many others were doing the same.
I don't think you were wrong to post in the thread. I think your argument was wrong, though, because your argument is based on speculation (mostly) and rogue appearances of a card in one or two slots in a top 8 outside of the deck it traditionally appears in, which has also only shown up once or twice in PE top 8s. The card is not performing to the levels you suggest it is and, based on how the metagame is presently fashioned, does not look like it will perform to that level without siginifcant alterations to the cards legal in Standard. That is not speculation, that is based on actual data you can look at and scrutinize over.
As I said earlier, Koth would be on-par with Jace if it were released in Zendikar block while Ball Lightning Red decks were actual significant elements of Standard.
Metalcraft especially with certain cards (such as Etched Champion, Indo Angel...) are oozing "awesomeness". Let more artifacts come and we will see. Do not see how they won't be relevant after Zendikar rotates and we are left with almost all artifacts.
If everyone is playing artifacts, Etched Champion is awful. Indominable Archangel doesn't do anything. If either card becomes good in Standard, it will be at least a whole year before it does so.
It should be noted that Etched Champion regularly shows up in Legacy Affinity builds in MODO dailies. It should also be noted that these events fire with 16 people in them and don't fire every day (and also Survival of the Fittest is a little shy of $100 on MODO). Mox Opal is also a card that shows up.
*and many of these cards are starting to find nice homes in Extended/Legacy which can also cause some jumps... some maybe very soon
Once again, Koth exists in a format where Ball Lightning Red exists. If Ball Lightning-style decks perform well, I have no doubt you will see Koth gain value during Extended season.
If there is a tier 1 or 1.5 red deck, then Koth will skyrocket. He will be the auto 3-4 of that Jace is for blue. The loss of the hasty wrecking balls hurt his value for now, but WOTC always (well mostly) supports red beatdown as it is one of the pillars of a balanced format. There should be some control that is U based and some burn/beats that are generally red.
I feel he's a pretty safe investment right now online, I bought a playset at 15 per last week and couldn't be happier. Worst comes worst you may lose 3-5 tickets a card, but in the meantime he is certainly playable and could EASILY spike to 25-28 tickets.
If there is a tier 1 or 1.5 red deck, then Koth will skyrocket.
Koth does very specific things and "waiting two turns hoping your opponent doesn't kill Koth so you can go Ultimate" is not a typical strategy for Red decks. Nor is it even a very good strategy.
If the kind of single-minded "Smash Face" Red strategy becomes tier 1 or 1.5, I would agree with you.
I feel he's a pretty safe investment right now online, I bought a playset at 15 per last week and couldn't be happier. Worst comes worst you may lose 3-5 tickets a card, but in the meantime he is certainly playable and could EASILY spike to 25-28 tickets.
That sounds more like you just happened to get a good deal on a card than anything related to how good or bad Koth is at present or in the future. I mean, I won a Force of Will the other day for $30 but it's certainly playable and could easily spike to $40.
I would say that Wurmcoil is a safe investment. There are tons of them, they are not going anywhere in price, they are versatile, have game-changing effects, and they compete with titans.
If any of these cards start to spike up in price it wont happen till the top 8 of worlds for the standard lists and see how much of scars is in them. It will also prove if SCars alone is a set of any worth or a set that requires MUCH more. I have a feeling alot of cards will spike up and maybe WAY up But in the shadow of Zen block its like oil and water. These 2 blocks really arent going to mix too well. but to be honest a part of me is happy scars hasnt become the OMG $20 cards everywhere. Sets like this gets annoying to keep up with when you have so much other things you must invest money on.
In fact, nothing really is a safe investment in Scars right now. Prices have plummeted and most cards have lost half (or more) of their pre-release value.
I would recommend trading for Ezuri and Genesis Waves. They're not flashy $15+ rares or $40 mythics, but there's so much room for value with them because Elves is "teh hotness" between Standard and Extended, so your pool of people to trade to and the available room for growth are both massive. It may be too late to board the train, now that Worlds has started, but if you can snipe some copies at around $2 and cap your spending at $3, you'll be waiting a few days before your investment takes off.
Standard card prices, especially Scars, are presently held back by the abundance of Scars cards being opened in Limited events, lack of fluid Standard environment and technology, and low number of high-profile Standard events (and I'm sure Worlds will help a little, but see below).
If any of these cards start to spike up in price it wont happen till the top 8 of worlds for the standard lists and see how much of scars is in them.
If Day 1 is any indication, it's that there is no "new hot tech" coming out of worlds. When there's nothing hot and new, card prices tend to stagnate and/or cool (Frost Titan, Lotus Cobra; both still very valuable, but certainly not as much so as they were say even a month ago). Standard prices will probably not be shaken up until Mirrodin Besieged or unless Standard cards break Extended (and even then, that's speculative).
but to be honest a part of me is happy scars hasnt become the OMG $20 cards everywhere. Sets like this gets annoying to keep up with when you have so much other things you must invest money on.
It makes it harder to trade away/want to trade for Scars cards because nothing is really profitable and it's just the same few cards that people don't even need 4-of for a deck (Wurmcoil). Short of people scrapping new deck ideas locally or finding people who undervalue Genesis Wave and Ezuri, I've found it hard to move any of my Scars stuff (which is alternately beneficial in the long run, because it allows me to stockpile excess "money" from the set to sell, which is fine, it being Christmastime and all).
Koth does very specific things and "waiting two turns hoping your opponent doesn't kill Koth so you can go Ultimate" is not a typical strategy for Red decks. Nor is it even a very good strategy.
If the kind of single-minded "Smash Face" Red strategy becomes tier 1 or 1.5, I would agree with you.
That sounds more like you just happened to get a good deal on a card than anything related to how good or bad Koth is at present or in the future. I mean, I won a Force of Will the other day for $30 but it's certainly playable and could easily spike to $40.
Because 4/4 hastes for 4 that require immediate resource use by your opponent to remove are always bad right? And btw in the "never to early to start thinking ahead" catagory check out the SOM block decks that win and tell me what mythic is a 4 of in 75% of them.
I wasn't highlighting my purchase rather the fact the card can be readily bought online for 16 tixs. I feel that is an excellent price. Mythics are where the speculative money is and Koth could see a huge spike with ittle downside.
And btw in the "never to early to start thinking ahead" catagory check out the SOM block decks that win and tell me what mythic is a 4 of in 75% of them.
I wasn't highlighting my purchase rather the fact the card can be readily bought online for 16 tixs. I feel that is an excellent price. Mythics are where the speculative money is and Koth could see a huge spike with ittle downside.
I'm almost surprised we didn't see a Venser deck this weekend. I hear he's good w/ Evoke creatures too. Evoke Mulldrifter, Draw 2, Bounce, Draw 2 and it sticks around. That's more efficient than Mimic Vat.
Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
Because 4/4 hastes for 4 that require immediate resource use by your opponent to remove are always bad right?
They are when it's turn 4 and your opponent has a Primeval/Any Titan in play. Your comments speak volumes about your inexperience with Standard -- Koth is not good right now. A good example of the environment Koth is good in was a format from 6 months ago, a time we are currently not living in and, at present, have no indication of going back to.
You're basing speculation on a combination of earnest wishing and absolutely nothing. That is not how cards gain or lose value, except in the singular instances where everyone thinks the way you are. We have a time for that. It's known as "Presale Time," which was not-so-coincidentally also several months ago.
And btw in the "never to early to start thinking ahead" catagory check out the SOM block decks that win and tell me what mythic is a 4 of in 75% of them.
Oh man, One-Set Block Constructed, the most telling and relevant of Constructed formats. How could I forget?
If your statement was based on queues of even two-set Block Constructed events, I would give you some credence. The card pool is just slightly over 1/3 of its final size for Block. Next set could contain a 0-cost Instant with Split Second that destroys target Planeswalker.
I wasn't highlighting my purchase rather the fact the card can be readily bought online for 16 tixs. I feel that is an excellent price. Mythics are where the speculative money is and Koth could see a huge spike with ittle downside.
What are you basing this on? What other Mythic that you're aware of went from $40 to $25-7 and then shot back up to $40+?
Speculation is all well and good if you're actually basing it on something that is real and trackable. Speculation based on nothing is a joke and waste of time. Please provide some indication that you're doing the former, because this discussion is getting circular.
Cards I like from SoM to rise:
Koth
Venser
Rachet Bomb
Genesis Wave
Indomitable Archangel
Grand Architect
Venser and Genesis Wave are both on slow climbs/at least not falling at the moment.
Grand Architect is likely to gain as we see more artifacts that work well with it, potentially more Blue men to work with him, and the ability to turn creatures you play into City of Traitors is just generally a powerful ability.
Rachet Bomb is probably stabilizing at 5-6 unless there's some awesome and relevant card that manipulates Charge counters effectively; it is only as good as the card it is and I know that's a stupid sounding statement, but there is no room for hype with it when it is a slow, gradual control card that your opponent generally sees coming except in cases where it wipes their Plant Tokens.
Indomitable Archangel still does basically nothing, but the one caveat here is that M12/Zendikar rotation means no Best Ramp In Ever and possibly no Titans or Baneslayer. There are a lot of "ifs" involved, coupled with "how good is a 4/4 for 4 with flying?" at base. M11 and back shows the power level is too high for a 4/4 for 4 with flying and no other relevant abilities to be relevant. It would take a lot of power-level regression before this card at its most basic was what you want to be doing with your White mana.
I'm almost surprised we didn't see a Venser deck this weekend. I hear he's good w/ Evoke creatures too. Evoke Mulldrifter, Draw 2, Bounce, Draw 2 and it sticks around. That's more efficient than Mimic Vat.
Sorcery speed abilities do not work that way. Goodnight.
Indominable archangel and Venser are keeping strong because of block. Standard can't use them, but U/W control in the top block deck and archangel is great in mirror matches.
I keep hearing the same arguement about Koth. "how is a 4/4 haste for 4 bad?". The answer: it can't block and is incredibly easy to kill. Been playing red for years, and that demigod or ram-gang is on defense more than you think. I've tested with Koth, and you really miss the defensive option when it counts. Also, if I swung with my ashenmoor gouger, and my opponent had 2 2/2 blockers, he usually double blocked. Now he just doesn't block, counterswings, my 4/4 effectively dies and those bears are around to kill the next one.
As far as value, I'd say 16 tix for him now is decent. He might go up slighty (to 18), but will ultimately decline. Koth has been on a hard, slow decline since he's been out. Most traders have a hard time admitting thier once chase cards now find themselves in more binders than decks. I still meet traders who think thier cranial extractions can fetch $10.
Indomitable Archangel still does basically nothing, but the one caveat here is that M12/Zendikar rotation means no Best Ramp In Ever and possibly no Titans or Baneslayer. There are a lot of "ifs" involved, coupled with "how good is a 4/4 for 4 with flying?" at base. M11 and back shows the power level is too high for a 4/4 for 4 with flying and no other relevant abilities to be relevant. It would take a lot of power-level regression before this card at its most basic was what you want to be doing with your White mana.
I was under the impression either bolt or baneslayer are going away away for the next core, and titans...I just can't see them reprinted. So the scenario of rotating baneslayer/titans is not all that far-fetched. Combined with the fact that Indomitable Archangel is essentially a dollar rare if traded for (Eudemonia in Berkeley sells them at 2.50), picking up a set or two does not appear as a bad idea. Personally, I think this girl can be good once it gets some help from wizards. Add some actually decent metalcraft things, one or two artifact lands, and who knows. I got 2 playsets for the price of essentially going to starbucks, so even if my hunch doesn't come to fruition I won't feel bad about it. If anything she can't get worse than its current status of $1-2 unplayable mythic, no?.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
G Azusa, Lost but Seeking G UG Tishana, Voice of Thunder GU UBW Sen Triplets WBU WUBGAtraxa, Praetors' Voice GBUW WUBRGJodah, Archmage Eternal GRBUW GWR Mayael the Anima RWG RWB Edgar Markov BWR WG Gaddok Teeg GW W Oketra the True W
--- My Decklist Folder
Its update time again! As always my prices are generally determined by average ebay completed listings.
Koth of the Hammer: $26
Venser the Sojourner: $14
Elspeth Tirel: $13
Mox Opal: $12
Molten-Tail Masticore: $11
Wurmcoil Engine: $8.50
Skithiryx: $8
Sword of Body and Mind: $8
Mimic Vat: $6
Ratchet Bomb: $4.50
Lux Cannon: $3
Hand of the Praetors: $2.50
Indomitable Archangel: $2.50
Darkslick Shores: $2
Seachrome Coast: $2
Ezuri Renegade Leader: $1.50
Memoricide: $1.50
Mindslaver: $1.50
Platinum Emperion: $1.50
Blackcleave Cliffs: $1.50
Copperline Gorge: $1.50
Genesis Wave: $1.50
Spikeshot Elder: $1.50
Tempered Steel: $1.50
Everything else is $1 or less
Total value of mythics: $110 (Down $17 from last update)
Total value of rares: $42 (Down $8 from last update)
Total value of a common/uncommon set: $5 (Down $1 from last update)
Total set value: $157 (down $26)
Average Box Value:
Mythics: $7.33/mythic x 4.5/box = $33 (down $5.10)
Rares: .79/rare x 31.5/box = $25 (down $4.70)
Uncommon/Common: $5/set x 1.8/box = $9 (Down $1.80)
Foils: $3 average/box
Total Box value: $70 (Down $13!)
Average Pack Value: $1.94
Well, Another 2 weeks and another tanking in values. This time we finally hit the redemption period for magic online sets, and that has likely contributed to the additional 15% drop in overall set value. Still there is plenty of hope that the next set or two in the block will help to bolster demand and prices for many of the cards in the set, so I suppose we will see.
Well, that's basically my point. We, the people trying to figure out card values here, don't know because we have no information to base an estimate from. Indomitable Archangel is basically a 4/4 flying donk with a marginal and situational secondary effect. Donks, especially at 4 mana, have to be pretty re-donk-ulous (do you see what I did there?) to make the cut in constructed formats. It also depends on how well one year from now Standard deals with donks. There's so much vacuum and not-information, aside from the old standby that donks are just donks are just donks.
I'm not saying Indomitable Archangel will never see play. But I am saying that it is, essentially, a vanilla 4/4 flier for 4. Vanilla 4/4s for 4 usually need some swingy effect to even see sideboard play (Obstinate Baloth), I don't know if "Does fly" counts as a swingy ability, while the Shroud effect doesn't protect itself, requires overcommitment to your board before it even triggers, and... Standard isn't exactly overwhelmed with targeted Artifact destruction abilities at the moment (clearly this is subject to change as more enter the format, but I'm trying to give you an analysis based on current information we have available).
From the looks of things at present, Archangel is just a flying Leatherback Baloth for one more mana that doesn't take a punch as well. And there has not been a time to date where Leatherback Baloth was absolutely cracking the format wide open.
I would agree that the one card that's really probably going to go up is Grand Architect. He just seems so good to me. I'd predict Koth to stabilize around $15-20 unless some big deck that uses him comes along.
Koth is greatly underperforming based on the pre-sale hype for him; he's only consistently in one aggressive red deck in standard (Cedric Red), while he's too expensive/slow (or too "doesn't do anything") for other mostly-red decks, like Artifact Red, Goblins, and B/Koros.
This is a card I'm surprised we haven't seen more movement out of; Memoricide got a price spike, granted it's splashable, but Spikeshot is in virtually every deck that plays a Red base. Spikeshot Elder is probably one of the best rares in the set, certainly in the top 10, and I would wager in the top 5. I would defend that the card would follow a Goblin Guide-like price curve if it even remotely garnered Guide's price tag.
Red decks need to be more relevant in Standard before anything significant happens with the Elder.
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Don't think you could be any more wrong about Koth.
If Koth can find his way into a multi-color numerous finish Top-8 deck (valakut), he will mostly likely find his way into more R/X deck in the next 2 years. And Koth is in way more decks than Cedric Red though it does seem to utilize him the most. Check those SBs, his ultimate is so fast - it's perfect against control. Koth is expensive/slow... seriously?! Maybe compared to a Goblin Guide but I can not think of one other red card (ok... perhaps bolt) that is more efficient. Just curious but if Koth is underperforming his presale hype... what league is Venser and Elspeth in?
IMO, speculate on those artifacts in Scars. If the next two sets follow the seemingly inevitable trend, artifacts is where it's at. Metalcraft is the tricky thing. Just how effective will this be in the near future? Indomitable Angel and the like could easily join Artifact-Gravy-Train very soon.
Are you basing your data on a cross-section of top finishing decks at tournaments, or are you basing that on one-off rogue appearances of a card once or twice in random events?
Koth does not regularly appear in MODO queues in any deck aside from Cedric Red, and does not regularly appear in any recent $5k event top 8s. He makes seldom 2-of appearances in the occasional RUG-or-similar deck list, but if card values were based around a card randomly appearing once or twice in a deck, Captivating Vampire would have made me rich and Venser wouldn't be a ~$16 card.
Koth suffers most of the same problems Sarkhan Vol did, with the benefit that he does offer the potential to protect himself (the "open Mountain" argument) and/or serve an aggressive function in aggressive decks. The problem with the latter is that the really aggressive decks in the format are more aggressive than a 4 mana 4/4-haste and don't need a 4-drop.
You have absolutely no idea what will be printed for or against Red and Red decks over the next two years, so preemptively speculating on a card that is currently losing value and presently hasn't found a major tournament foothold to stabilize in seems like a genuinely bad bet to take, unless you're banking on getting his value to stabilize/go up through Extended. I'd be willing to concede that Koth is probably a wonder in a Ball Lightning Red deck.
... I don't even... Each card is less than half of its prerelease value and falling. They're not even playing the same sport.
When has a card that doesn't mesh with the plan of a "theme deck" ever been a hot performer because of the existence of that theme deck? Your speculation here seems way off, especially knowing the current power level of 4-drops makes being a 4/4 flier for 4 not relevant enough.
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Chimeric mass also
Yeah, it's seeing more play and is versatile. Seems very good in a Legacy blue counterspell deck where you can set it and forget it (until your next turn of course).
Koth is just so amazing as many articles elude to.
Metalcraft especially with certain cards (such as Etched Champion, Indo Angel...) are oozing "awesomeness". Let more artifacts come and we will see. Do not see how they won't be relevant after Zendikar rotates and we are left with almost all artifacts.
Moral of the story... absurd investment potential here with everything so low right now.
*and many of these cards are starting to find nice homes in Extended/Legacy which can also cause some jumps... some maybe very soon
I don't think you were wrong to post in the thread. I think your argument was wrong, though, because your argument is based on speculation (mostly) and rogue appearances of a card in one or two slots in a top 8 outside of the deck it traditionally appears in, which has also only shown up once or twice in PE top 8s. The card is not performing to the levels you suggest it is and, based on how the metagame is presently fashioned, does not look like it will perform to that level without siginifcant alterations to the cards legal in Standard. That is not speculation, that is based on actual data you can look at and scrutinize over.
As I said earlier, Koth would be on-par with Jace if it were released in Zendikar block while Ball Lightning Red decks were actual significant elements of Standard.
If everyone is playing artifacts, Etched Champion is awful. Indominable Archangel doesn't do anything. If either card becomes good in Standard, it will be at least a whole year before it does so.
It should be noted that Etched Champion regularly shows up in Legacy Affinity builds in MODO dailies. It should also be noted that these events fire with 16 people in them and don't fire every day (and also Survival of the Fittest is a little shy of $100 on MODO). Mox Opal is also a card that shows up.
Once again, Koth exists in a format where Ball Lightning Red exists. If Ball Lightning-style decks perform well, I have no doubt you will see Koth gain value during Extended season.
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I feel he's a pretty safe investment right now online, I bought a playset at 15 per last week and couldn't be happier. Worst comes worst you may lose 3-5 tickets a card, but in the meantime he is certainly playable and could EASILY spike to 25-28 tickets.
Koth does very specific things and "waiting two turns hoping your opponent doesn't kill Koth so you can go Ultimate" is not a typical strategy for Red decks. Nor is it even a very good strategy.
If the kind of single-minded "Smash Face" Red strategy becomes tier 1 or 1.5, I would agree with you.
That sounds more like you just happened to get a good deal on a card than anything related to how good or bad Koth is at present or in the future. I mean, I won a Force of Will the other day for $30 but it's certainly playable and could easily spike to $40.
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Lands WUBG
EDH:
Doran WBG
why not? unless they make mid range red viable cards, hes not fast enough to battle ramp and control
he started @ 40 mow there are multiple auctions finishing on ebay at 90.....hes dropping close to half his pre sale value real quick
My Sales THread
I would recommend trading for Ezuri and Genesis Waves. They're not flashy $15+ rares or $40 mythics, but there's so much room for value with them because Elves is "teh hotness" between Standard and Extended, so your pool of people to trade to and the available room for growth are both massive. It may be too late to board the train, now that Worlds has started, but if you can snipe some copies at around $2 and cap your spending at $3, you'll be waiting a few days before your investment takes off.
Standard card prices, especially Scars, are presently held back by the abundance of Scars cards being opened in Limited events, lack of fluid Standard environment and technology, and low number of high-profile Standard events (and I'm sure Worlds will help a little, but see below).
If Day 1 is any indication, it's that there is no "new hot tech" coming out of worlds. When there's nothing hot and new, card prices tend to stagnate and/or cool (Frost Titan, Lotus Cobra; both still very valuable, but certainly not as much so as they were say even a month ago). Standard prices will probably not be shaken up until Mirrodin Besieged or unless Standard cards break Extended (and even then, that's speculative).
It makes it harder to trade away/want to trade for Scars cards because nothing is really profitable and it's just the same few cards that people don't even need 4-of for a deck (Wurmcoil). Short of people scrapping new deck ideas locally or finding people who undervalue Genesis Wave and Ezuri, I've found it hard to move any of my Scars stuff (which is alternately beneficial in the long run, because it allows me to stockpile excess "money" from the set to sell, which is fine, it being Christmastime and all).
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Because 4/4 hastes for 4 that require immediate resource use by your opponent to remove are always bad right? And btw in the "never to early to start thinking ahead" catagory check out the SOM block decks that win and tell me what mythic is a 4 of in 75% of them.
I wasn't highlighting my purchase rather the fact the card can be readily bought online for 16 tixs. I feel that is an excellent price. Mythics are where the speculative money is and Koth could see a huge spike with ittle downside.
Cards I like from SoM to rise:
Koth
Venser
Rachet Bomb
Genesis Wave
Indomitable Archangel
Grand Architect
I'm almost surprised we didn't see a Venser deck this weekend. I hear he's good w/ Evoke creatures too. Evoke Mulldrifter, Draw 2, Bounce, Draw 2 and it sticks around. That's more efficient than Mimic Vat.
They are when it's turn 4 and your opponent has a Primeval/Any Titan in play. Your comments speak volumes about your inexperience with Standard -- Koth is not good right now. A good example of the environment Koth is good in was a format from 6 months ago, a time we are currently not living in and, at present, have no indication of going back to.
You're basing speculation on a combination of earnest wishing and absolutely nothing. That is not how cards gain or lose value, except in the singular instances where everyone thinks the way you are. We have a time for that. It's known as "Presale Time," which was not-so-coincidentally also several months ago.
Oh man, One-Set Block Constructed, the most telling and relevant of Constructed formats. How could I forget?
If your statement was based on queues of even two-set Block Constructed events, I would give you some credence. The card pool is just slightly over 1/3 of its final size for Block. Next set could contain a 0-cost Instant with Split Second that destroys target Planeswalker.
What are you basing this on? What other Mythic that you're aware of went from $40 to $25-7 and then shot back up to $40+?
Speculation is all well and good if you're actually basing it on something that is real and trackable. Speculation based on nothing is a joke and waste of time. Please provide some indication that you're doing the former, because this discussion is getting circular.
Venser and Genesis Wave are both on slow climbs/at least not falling at the moment.
Grand Architect is likely to gain as we see more artifacts that work well with it, potentially more Blue men to work with him, and the ability to turn creatures you play into City of Traitors is just generally a powerful ability.
Rachet Bomb is probably stabilizing at 5-6 unless there's some awesome and relevant card that manipulates Charge counters effectively; it is only as good as the card it is and I know that's a stupid sounding statement, but there is no room for hype with it when it is a slow, gradual control card that your opponent generally sees coming except in cases where it wipes their Plant Tokens.
Indomitable Archangel still does basically nothing, but the one caveat here is that M12/Zendikar rotation means no Best Ramp In Ever and possibly no Titans or Baneslayer. There are a lot of "ifs" involved, coupled with "how good is a 4/4 for 4 with flying?" at base. M11 and back shows the power level is too high for a 4/4 for 4 with flying and no other relevant abilities to be relevant. It would take a lot of power-level regression before this card at its most basic was what you want to be doing with your White mana.
Sorcery speed abilities do not work that way. Goodnight.
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I keep hearing the same arguement about Koth. "how is a 4/4 haste for 4 bad?". The answer: it can't block and is incredibly easy to kill. Been playing red for years, and that demigod or ram-gang is on defense more than you think. I've tested with Koth, and you really miss the defensive option when it counts. Also, if I swung with my ashenmoor gouger, and my opponent had 2 2/2 blockers, he usually double blocked. Now he just doesn't block, counterswings, my 4/4 effectively dies and those bears are around to kill the next one.
As far as value, I'd say 16 tix for him now is decent. He might go up slighty (to 18), but will ultimately decline. Koth has been on a hard, slow decline since he's been out. Most traders have a hard time admitting thier once chase cards now find themselves in more binders than decks. I still meet traders who think thier cranial extractions can fetch $10.
I was under the impression either bolt or baneslayer are going away away for the next core, and titans...I just can't see them reprinted. So the scenario of rotating baneslayer/titans is not all that far-fetched. Combined with the fact that Indomitable Archangel is essentially a dollar rare if traded for (Eudemonia in Berkeley sells them at 2.50), picking up a set or two does not appear as a bad idea. Personally, I think this girl can be good once it gets some help from wizards. Add some actually decent metalcraft things, one or two artifact lands, and who knows. I got 2 playsets for the price of essentially going to starbucks, so even if my hunch doesn't come to fruition I won't feel bad about it. If anything she can't get worse than its current status of $1-2 unplayable mythic, no?.
UG Tishana, Voice of Thunder GU
UBW Sen Triplets WBU
WUBGAtraxa, Praetors' Voice GBUW
WUBRGJodah, Archmage Eternal GRBUW
GWR Mayael the Anima RWG
RWB Edgar Markov BWR
WG Gaddok Teeg GW
W Oketra the True W
---
My Decklist Folder
Koth of the Hammer: $26
Venser the Sojourner: $14
Elspeth Tirel: $13
Mox Opal: $12
Molten-Tail Masticore: $11
Wurmcoil Engine: $8.50
Skithiryx: $8
Sword of Body and Mind: $8
Mimic Vat: $6
Ratchet Bomb: $4.50
Lux Cannon: $3
Hand of the Praetors: $2.50
Indomitable Archangel: $2.50
Darkslick Shores: $2
Seachrome Coast: $2
Ezuri Renegade Leader: $1.50
Memoricide: $1.50
Mindslaver: $1.50
Platinum Emperion: $1.50
Blackcleave Cliffs: $1.50
Copperline Gorge: $1.50
Genesis Wave: $1.50
Spikeshot Elder: $1.50
Tempered Steel: $1.50
Everything else is $1 or less
Total value of mythics: $110 (Down $17 from last update)
Total value of rares: $42 (Down $8 from last update)
Total value of a common/uncommon set: $5 (Down $1 from last update)
Total set value: $157 (down $26)
Average Box Value:
Mythics: $7.33/mythic x 4.5/box = $33 (down $5.10)
Rares: .79/rare x 31.5/box = $25 (down $4.70)
Uncommon/Common: $5/set x 1.8/box = $9 (Down $1.80)
Foils: $3 average/box
Total Box value: $70 (Down $13!)
Average Pack Value: $1.94
Well, Another 2 weeks and another tanking in values. This time we finally hit the redemption period for magic online sets, and that has likely contributed to the additional 15% drop in overall set value. Still there is plenty of hope that the next set or two in the block will help to bolster demand and prices for many of the cards in the set, so I suppose we will see.
I don't think this idea is absurd (or likely to happen in either direction) -- is there a source for this?
I can agree with this without any support; Primeval Titan is just an outrageous beating, etc etc.
Well, that's basically my point. We, the people trying to figure out card values here, don't know because we have no information to base an estimate from. Indomitable Archangel is basically a 4/4 flying donk with a marginal and situational secondary effect. Donks, especially at 4 mana, have to be pretty re-donk-ulous (do you see what I did there?) to make the cut in constructed formats. It also depends on how well one year from now Standard deals with donks. There's so much vacuum and not-information, aside from the old standby that donks are just donks are just donks.
I'm not saying Indomitable Archangel will never see play. But I am saying that it is, essentially, a vanilla 4/4 flier for 4. Vanilla 4/4s for 4 usually need some swingy effect to even see sideboard play (Obstinate Baloth), I don't know if "Does fly" counts as a swingy ability, while the Shroud effect doesn't protect itself, requires overcommitment to your board before it even triggers, and... Standard isn't exactly overwhelmed with targeted Artifact destruction abilities at the moment (clearly this is subject to change as more enter the format, but I'm trying to give you an analysis based on current information we have available).
From the looks of things at present, Archangel is just a flying Leatherback Baloth for one more mana that doesn't take a punch as well. And there has not been a time to date where Leatherback Baloth was absolutely cracking the format wide open.
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http://wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/mm/97
Lands WUBG
EDH:
Doran WBG