A Tarmogoyf reprint has been announced! My guess is that this will eviscerate current modern prices (which I suppose is the point, since Wizards wants to make modern more accessible)
This being market street cafe, my suggestion to you all is to dump excess pre-alara modern stock now.
This product releases June 2013. Thats 8 months away and lots of time to trade away the staples. I don't personally think theres a mad rush to get rid of them now.
I think the big question is will this announcement disincetivize purchases of Modern cards so much in the next eight months that prices drop significantly due to lack of demand?
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
I wonder just how limited the print run will be. As we have seen with other high class, low volume reprints, generally the prices barely budge. (Something like 2/3 at most.)
So, depending on just how limited we are talking here, I'd estimate most reprinted rares and mythics would be 1/2 or 2/3 their price or so. Any commons / uncommons that are in the set will absolutely decimate the value (I'm looking at you, kitchen finks.) However, the mythics and rares less so.
I am very interested to see how this pans out. It also goes to show that anyone "investing" in anything not on the reserve is a very risky maneuver. For the past year or so I've been slowly unloading anything (non-fetchland) of value that is not on the reserve list. Glad to see my judgement was at least partially right.
Also, if this does create an insane rush to get rid of modern staples, the time during that rush to unload would be an amazing time to pick up original staple prints for cheap. And who knows - that high class card you picked up for cheap may not even get reprinted!
I think that "limited print run" that it'll be available basically between end of this block and start of core set limited basically.
I think there will be a slightly larger than normal print run (maybe 1 and half what a "typical print run" is like and that'll be it)
I think most high priced cards will be in this set (Obviously Tarmogoyf is the highest priced card... but clique, thoughtsieze, and dark confidant are obviously the next ones to be in this set)
This may be one of the few sets I'll buy a box or two of if I can get a hold of one (which I think I will one way or another) I'm tempted to fly/drive to wherever the limited North American grand prix is to play this set.
That being said, I don't see how Tarmogoyf maintains 80 anymore. I think that this will drop his price to 50 initially and then it'll start creeping up from there. I would trade away most of the higher priced uncommons/commons first. (so your Finks, Spell Snares, Remands, Lightning Helix) Though it think Remand gets the reprint over Snare, but we could get both who knows?
You take a huge risk anytime you are investing in cards in a format that they explicitily said was created so they could reprint cards to meet the demand of players. A reprint for stuff like Tarmogoyf was only a matter of time.
I'll also go out on a limb to say that a "Legacy Masters" could be around the corner if this set does well enough. (though I think it is slightly less likely).
I'm excited that they are finally printing non-standard legal boosters. That is the best take away from all of this. I want a set like this EVERY year.
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
I don't play Modern, I play kitchen table magic. But I'm interested in what cards you guys are referring to that are Modern staples that "should" be reprinted or that I should keep my eye out for. Some cards I've always wanted but never bought because they were so expensive are things like Knight of the Reliquary and Life from the Loam. Are those Modern cards that may possibly be printed or no?
If the store owner says that I can't trade in the premises, I'll just go outside. If he says that I can't trade within 10m of his premises, I'll go to 11 meters. If he says that he doesn't want to see me trading, I will put a basket over his head and continue trading.
Yes, he's a local legend. He's only known to take his clothes off before he goes into the Ladies' Lockerroom. Nobody knows what he does in there because he's invisible, but it's almost certainly tons of masturbating.
WOTC does not support the Legacy format and unless they renege on their promise with the reserved list I can't really see a set like this anyways.
As for expensive uncommon staples it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts. It's a large set so I'm sure will be seeing some of them.
It all depends on how "limited" this set will be. Aaron Forsythe keeps saying how this set will be very small, so I think the prices won't budge that much. And everyone keeps forgetting how demand will be increasing for these staples as new players will be interested in Modern now that they have a somewhat "cheaper/easier" way to get Modern staples.
It all depends on how "limited" this set will be. Aaron Forsythe keeps saying how this set will be very small, so I think the prices won't budge that much. And everyone keeps forgetting how demand will be increasing for these staples as new players will be interested in Modern now that they have a somewhat "cheaper/easier" way to get Modern staples.
It also depends on the shift in rarities. The MM's booster is just like any other set with a rare/mythic, some uncommons, and mostly commons. It depends on what cards get bumped down to uncommon or common because that would definitely matter even if the set was "limited"
I wouldn't consider knight of reliquary of life from the loam expensive, when goyf is $100, anyway it's good the reprints are hitting the market.
Well not all mythics/rares in this set are going to be $100 cards. And if you don't think $10 (roughly) cards are expensive then I don't know what to say.
I'm just excited to see all of the high value commons/uncommons getting a reprint. I think this is exactly what wizards needed to do to promote modern. This will substantially lower the cost of getting into modern for many players and although it will hurt the value of the reprinted cards its something players needed.
I'm just excited to see all of the high value commons/uncommons getting a reprint. I think this is exactly what wizards needed to do to promote modern. This will substantially lower the cost of getting into modern for many players and although it will hurt the value of the reprinted cards its something players needed.
Forsythe in his article said "we will not be increasing the quantity of any card in circulation by more than a fraction of what is already out there." To me that implies there will be only a 25% increase in the supply or so, and I doubt that will change the prices much. In fact, to whatever extent Modern Masters draws more attention to the format and makes more players interested in playing, it could cause the perverse result of increasing prices, if it creates more additional demand than it adds additional supply! I have seen quite a few players say "hey, now I can finally get into Modern!" when this reprint set was announced.
I have a decent collection, but I still would rather see the formats get the reprints they need than feel like my cards are "going up in value". We've had some discussion lately of "magic as an investment" and I think limiting the size of the print run is catering a little too much to the "retire on my goyf fund" crowd. Modern is supposed to be the non-rotating format without an insane price barrier to entry, but the player base has increased by about 200% since several years ago, so printing another 25% of in-demand cards isn't really moving things in the right direction.
Goyf will still come down. The only reason a lot of these cards are so unobtainable is initial print runs of "small set syndrome". I think the set will immediately sell out, increase the likely hood of us seeing a "non standard legal" booster expansion set (which could in the future have new cards in it that "they don't want for standard but want for Modern/Legacy/Commander")
If this printing means that Goyf maintains or lowers even slightly then it is a win. It means that instead of Goyf pushing past 100 into the 120s to 150s it means it says between 80 and 100 I'll be happy.
I think it is going to help prices, get cards into the hands of some people and increase the amount of players (thus demand) for Modern cards. They are not going to print 10x the print run of Future Sight, which is smart, you don't want to the value of the cards to plummet then no one will want to collect the cards. But even if they increase the supply of these cards by 10 to 15 percent, that means that many more people will be able to play modern much more competitively.
I think this solidifies that we may see Modern eventually become a FNM set (maybe not this year, but soon)
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
Indeed. Tarmogoyf will come down... temporarily. But if WotC wants to encourage participation in Modern, the medium and long term direction for this card is only up.
I think this solidifies that we may see Modern eventually become a FNM set (maybe not this year, but soon)
If you want cheaper prices on Modern cards, this is the absolute worst thing that could happen.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
If you want cheaper prices on Modern cards, this is the absolute worst thing that could happen.
I want to be able to play it weekly. Not just when "it is in season". I only play Legacy and Modern. I want as many people playing the format as possible.
I also don't want "cheaper" prices just stable prices.
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I just want people who redraft to admit this:
"I can't draft objectively unless I am able to guarantee that I receive at least 3 rares. I am also better than most average/new players so I want to make sure that I get the best rares and they end up with worse ones. I care more about the monetary value of cards than actually playing the game for decent prizes."
I think people are forgetting that this set will be a limited print run. Consider it this way... people are going to gobble it up like candy... even if it's the equivalent of the first print run of RTR (and nearly as popular), it'll be gone in a week and prices will still only temporarily drop after the market fills with people who "bought a pack and pulled a Goyf and want something for it."
I can't see it drop below $50, ever, unless it's mass produced again.
I do think though that we'll see this over the next 6 months: "I don't want to trade for that, it'll likely be reprinted in June..." I think stores are going to see a bit of a drop in Modern attendance from people who don't want to have to buy new cards until this set arrives.
How bout buying up a lot of Goyf's in anticipation of the Modern release. Hype will be at its highest, then as people realize the release being more limited then expected you sell your Goyf's for a tidy profit as people realize the mythic rare from a limited set does not increase supply by enough to meet everyone's demand. Plus old artwork Goyf will still carry a premium.
Indeed. Tarmogoyf will come down... temporarily. But if WotC wants to encourage participation in Modern, the medium and long term direction for this card is only up.
If you want cheaper prices on Modern cards, this is the absolute worst thing that could happen.
If it drops, then I am not sure how much that will be as it is already spoiled as being a mythic in a set that they say will be very limited.
The real question is HOW limited. I think it's going to be very similar to any regular set, only instead of seeing continual print runs, this will only have 1-2 max. This will allow plenty of people to get their hands on it, but will churn some major hype. I think they underestimate how popular this will be, even to new players. Heck, I don't play much Modern but I'd consider buy a couple of boxes just to start a nice cube.
The real question is HOW limited. I think it's going to be very similar to any regular set, only instead of seeing continual print runs, this will only have 1-2 max. This will allow plenty of people to get their hands on it, but will churn some major hype. I think they underestimate how popular this will be, even to new players. Heck, I don't play much Modern but I'd consider buy a couple of boxes just to start a nice cube.
This is exactly what I am thinking as well. It will get one (maybe two) print runs and that's it but that print run will be a typical sets run. This is basically taking the place of the COMM, PC, AE summer time product is all.
I also think demand will be higher than anticipated from the casual crowd. This is their chance to get a bunch of cards they didn't have access to before and will likely be a very powerful set overall as it's picking modern cards from a lot of sets. I know I hope to get a box at least. It'll depend on how limited it is though. Hopefully they announce that before the hype train gets too far out of the station...
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This being market street cafe, my suggestion to you all is to dump excess pre-alara modern stock now.
Wanted Card List: (PM me)
1 Avacyn, Angel of Hope
1 Ravages of War
1 Swords to Plowshares (Judge)
1 Land Tax (Judge)
U
1 Mana Vortex
B
1 Desolation Angel (Foil)
1 Guardian Beast
1 Contamination
R
1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
G
1 Food Chain
WUBRG
1 Rohgahh of Kher Keep
X
1 Charcoal Diamond (Foil)
1 Fellwar Stone (Foil)
T
1 Temple Garden (Foil)
3 Mutavault
1 Kor Haven
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=409478
So, depending on just how limited we are talking here, I'd estimate most reprinted rares and mythics would be 1/2 or 2/3 their price or so. Any commons / uncommons that are in the set will absolutely decimate the value (I'm looking at you, kitchen finks.) However, the mythics and rares less so.
I am very interested to see how this pans out. It also goes to show that anyone "investing" in anything not on the reserve is a very risky maneuver. For the past year or so I've been slowly unloading anything (non-fetchland) of value that is not on the reserve list. Glad to see my judgement was at least partially right.
Also, if this does create an insane rush to get rid of modern staples, the time during that rush to unload would be an amazing time to pick up original staple prints for cheap. And who knows - that high class card you picked up for cheap may not even get reprinted!
My current trade thread.
I think there will be a slightly larger than normal print run (maybe 1 and half what a "typical print run" is like and that'll be it)
I think most high priced cards will be in this set (Obviously Tarmogoyf is the highest priced card... but clique, thoughtsieze, and dark confidant are obviously the next ones to be in this set)
This may be one of the few sets I'll buy a box or two of if I can get a hold of one (which I think I will one way or another) I'm tempted to fly/drive to wherever the limited North American grand prix is to play this set.
That being said, I don't see how Tarmogoyf maintains 80 anymore. I think that this will drop his price to 50 initially and then it'll start creeping up from there. I would trade away most of the higher priced uncommons/commons first. (so your Finks, Spell Snares, Remands, Lightning Helix) Though it think Remand gets the reprint over Snare, but we could get both who knows?
You take a huge risk anytime you are investing in cards in a format that they explicitily said was created so they could reprint cards to meet the demand of players. A reprint for stuff like Tarmogoyf was only a matter of time.
I'll also go out on a limb to say that a "Legacy Masters" could be around the corner if this set does well enough. (though I think it is slightly less likely).
I'm excited that they are finally printing non-standard legal boosters. That is the best take away from all of this. I want a set like this EVERY year.
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As for expensive uncommon staples it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts. It's a large set so I'm sure will be seeing some of them.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=487991
My Sell List:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10893911#post10893911
It also depends on the shift in rarities. The MM's booster is just like any other set with a rare/mythic, some uncommons, and mostly commons. It depends on what cards get bumped down to uncommon or common because that would definitely matter even if the set was "limited"
Imagine if they bumped kitchen finks to common....
Well not all mythics/rares in this set are going to be $100 cards. And if you don't think $10 (roughly) cards are expensive then I don't know what to say.
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Depends. We'll see what "limited" means.
I have a decent collection, but I still would rather see the formats get the reprints they need than feel like my cards are "going up in value". We've had some discussion lately of "magic as an investment" and I think limiting the size of the print run is catering a little too much to the "retire on my goyf fund" crowd. Modern is supposed to be the non-rotating format without an insane price barrier to entry, but the player base has increased by about 200% since several years ago, so printing another 25% of in-demand cards isn't really moving things in the right direction.
If this printing means that Goyf maintains or lowers even slightly then it is a win. It means that instead of Goyf pushing past 100 into the 120s to 150s it means it says between 80 and 100 I'll be happy.
I think it is going to help prices, get cards into the hands of some people and increase the amount of players (thus demand) for Modern cards. They are not going to print 10x the print run of Future Sight, which is smart, you don't want to the value of the cards to plummet then no one will want to collect the cards. But even if they increase the supply of these cards by 10 to 15 percent, that means that many more people will be able to play modern much more competitively.
I think this solidifies that we may see Modern eventually become a FNM set (maybe not this year, but soon)
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Indeed. Tarmogoyf will come down... temporarily. But if WotC wants to encourage participation in Modern, the medium and long term direction for this card is only up.
If you want cheaper prices on Modern cards, this is the absolute worst thing that could happen.
I want to be able to play it weekly. Not just when "it is in season". I only play Legacy and Modern. I want as many people playing the format as possible.
I also don't want "cheaper" prices just stable prices.
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I can't see it drop below $50, ever, unless it's mass produced again.
I do think though that we'll see this over the next 6 months: "I don't want to trade for that, it'll likely be reprinted in June..." I think stores are going to see a bit of a drop in Modern attendance from people who don't want to have to buy new cards until this set arrives.
If it drops, then I am not sure how much that will be as it is already spoiled as being a mythic in a set that they say will be very limited.
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/arcana/1086
This is exactly what I am thinking as well. It will get one (maybe two) print runs and that's it but that print run will be a typical sets run. This is basically taking the place of the COMM, PC, AE summer time product is all.
I also think demand will be higher than anticipated from the casual crowd. This is their chance to get a bunch of cards they didn't have access to before and will likely be a very powerful set overall as it's picking modern cards from a lot of sets. I know I hope to get a box at least. It'll depend on how limited it is though. Hopefully they announce that before the hype train gets too far out of the station...