I've been following all of this talk of "buyouts" the last couple of weeks as it's become the big news in the game. Amidst all of the talk about the unattainability of Legacy and Vintage amidst the huge buyouts of eternal staples (Moat, Duals, etc.) and apparently Martin Shkreli even getting in on the act with his supposed 7 Black Lotuses bought in one night, I've been looking for opportunities/ desperately picking up the Reserved Lists cards that weren't already in my collection.
From what I can see, to me it looks like we've pretty much reached endgame on the buyouts; every major Reserve List card that hasn't been bought out recently is more or less headed in that direction. If you were tentatively planning on picking up any Reserve List cards anytime in the near future, now would seemingly be the time to do it. I'll forego the usual suspects over the last few days: Serra's Sanctum, Grim Monolith, Tolarian Academy... those cards have spiked (probably, for now) and "investing" in them is a lost cause.
Here's what I've been seeing over the last few days:
I just picked up one of the last Academy Rectors available on TCGPlayer for $22.50; they were going for under $20.00 a couple days ago. There are only two or three non-foil copies left, and the next available one is $24.00. If you can buy or trade for one, this would be my top target.
Ditto Gilded Drake, Intuition, and Humility--there are only about 40 copies of each left, and the latter two have spiked about $4.00-5.00 each since I checked just earlier today.
Here are some of the cards I've picked up today still available for (what I believe in the near future will be) relatively cheap, in order of urgency:
If you haven't already, I would also recommend Volrath's Stronghold, Yavimaya Hollow, Metalworker, Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary, and Yawgmoth's Will, because they are all also starting to tick up. (I already either own a couple of each or don't care whether I do or not, so I didn't actually bother picking any more up myself.) Undiscovered Paradise, Lake of the Dead, and Thawing Glaciers are also substantially more expensive than I remember them being the last time I checked, but I couldn't tell you if this is a recent development or not because these cards weren't really on my radar.
Replenish, Treachery, Palinchron, Time Spiral, and Recurring Nightmare, haven't moved much YET, but to me they seem like the logical next tier of cards to start moving upwards. Survival of the Fittest and Mox Diamond have already seen substantial price increases lately, but both are also popular cards that will never see a reprint; if you have the cash for them and don't have them in your collection yet, then BUY.
As far as outlier flyers go, Hatred, Scorched Ruins, Lotus Vale, Winding CanyonsFirestorm, Squandered Resources (Yes, I just said SQUANDERED RESOURCES--do you even know what this card does?) Retribution of the Meek (Ditto), City of Solitude (Ditto x3), and Pendrell Mists have all seen modest increases lately and all seem like relatively good bets, even though none of them are particularly relevant in sanctioned eternal formats (except Firestorm in certain Dredge builds.) All can be had for approximately $5.00-8.00, and I bought at least one copy of each.
I don't think the two are necessarily mutually exclusive; and I expect for the prices on my "investments" to rise regardless of whether anyone on here chooses to listen to what I have to say. These are just my personal thoughts and if you don't agree with them/trust my judgment then that's fine. I'd encourage everyone to take a look at where the prices on these cards are headed and to judge for themselves; (**DISCLOSURE**) I have an interest in some of these cards--I already pretty much disclosed the ones I went in on--but many others I do not. I'd also suggest everyone scour the Reserved List for themselves to identify any cards that I might have missed.
That having been said, I'm no fan of the Reserve List and don't like that it creates a high barrier to entry--including for Yours Truly. I'm just calling it like I see it; the cat's out of the bag and any halfway playable Reserve List card is about to spike sooner or later (probably sooner) as Johnny-come-lately "speculators" get in on the action and futilely try and recreate the Moat/Lion's Eye Diamond/City of Traitors action. The $50 (average TCGPlayer market price for your Reserve List staples) question is who is going to get in on the action and reap the benefits--speculators or people who actually enjoy playing the game; I see a lot of people lamenting the Reserve List on here, but very few people taking the obvious practical step of getting out ahead of the next set of spikes to mitigate the fallout.
If you want these cards, all I'm saying is that I think it's probably prudent to buy sooner, rather than later. (Lesson learned with Serra's Sanctum, which I unfortunately missed out on.)
There's a lot of irony in a post like this. We all know the buyouts are a bad thing, and we all know the buyouts started as a symptom of too many people beginning to pay special attention to the secondary market. They're bad for Magic, yet here we are reading about what cards we should be buying and speculating on if only for the singular purpose of having them before a price increase in an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. This hysteria is a huge part of the problem and frankly not helping in any way. Pure irony.
Always keep in mind that the buyout is only a USA thing.
There is still plenty of stock in europe. Yes, the prices moved a bit due to the hype but that's about it.
As soon as there is real demand and money to be made the traders will pick up cards in europe and sell them in the states.
Traders are already doing this for staples prior to big events if they run out of stock. I had several transactions with them two years ago when I was selling my collection on MKM.
Unless you're buying in high volume paying the shipping from Europe for individual cards typically isn't worth the difference if you're buying the United States.
There's a lot of irony in a post like this. We all know the buyouts are a bad thing, and we all know the buyouts started as a symptom of too many people beginning to pay special attention to the secondary market. They're bad for Magic, yet here we are reading about what cards we should be buying and speculating on if only for the singular purpose of having them before a price increase in an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. This hysteria is a huge part of the problem and frankly not helping in any way. Pure irony.
This isn't about whether buyouts are a good or bad thing, and it's not necessarily about "speculation" either. It's about reality (the "prophecy" is going to fulfill itself one way or another--it's a matter of if, not when--and no amount of wishing otherwise or calling it "hysteria" is going to change simple market economics) and not being the one left standing when the music stops--i.e. getting the cards before they spike to ridiculous prices.
Always keep in mind that the buyout is only a USA thing.
There is still plenty of stock in europe. Yes, the prices moved a bit due to the hype but that's about it.
As soon as there is real demand and money to be made the traders will pick up cards in europe and sell them in the states.
Traders are already doing this for staples prior to big events if they run out of stock. I had several transactions with them two years ago when I was selling my collection on MKM.
He buys in Europe too.
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From what I can see, to me it looks like we've pretty much reached endgame on the buyouts; every major Reserve List card that hasn't been bought out recently is more or less headed in that direction. If you were tentatively planning on picking up any Reserve List cards anytime in the near future, now would seemingly be the time to do it. I'll forego the usual suspects over the last few days: Serra's Sanctum, Grim Monolith, Tolarian Academy... those cards have spiked (probably, for now) and "investing" in them is a lost cause.
Here's what I've been seeing over the last few days:
I just picked up one of the last Academy Rectors available on TCGPlayer for $22.50; they were going for under $20.00 a couple days ago. There are only two or three non-foil copies left, and the next available one is $24.00. If you can buy or trade for one, this would be my top target.
Ditto Gilded Drake, Intuition, and Humility--there are only about 40 copies of each left, and the latter two have spiked about $4.00-5.00 each since I checked just earlier today.
Here are some of the cards I've picked up today still available for (what I believe in the near future will be) relatively cheap, in order of urgency:
If you haven't already, I would also recommend Volrath's Stronghold, Yavimaya Hollow, Metalworker, Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary, and Yawgmoth's Will, because they are all also starting to tick up. (I already either own a couple of each or don't care whether I do or not, so I didn't actually bother picking any more up myself.) Undiscovered Paradise, Lake of the Dead, and Thawing Glaciers are also substantially more expensive than I remember them being the last time I checked, but I couldn't tell you if this is a recent development or not because these cards weren't really on my radar.
Replenish, Treachery, Palinchron, Time Spiral, and Recurring Nightmare, haven't moved much YET, but to me they seem like the logical next tier of cards to start moving upwards. Survival of the Fittest and Mox Diamond have already seen substantial price increases lately, but both are also popular cards that will never see a reprint; if you have the cash for them and don't have them in your collection yet, then BUY.
As far as outlier flyers go, Hatred, Scorched Ruins, Lotus Vale, Winding Canyons Firestorm, Squandered Resources (Yes, I just said SQUANDERED RESOURCES--do you even know what this card does?) Retribution of the Meek (Ditto), City of Solitude (Ditto x3), and Pendrell Mists have all seen modest increases lately and all seem like relatively good bets, even though none of them are particularly relevant in sanctioned eternal formats (except Firestorm in certain Dredge builds.) All can be had for approximately $5.00-8.00, and I bought at least one copy of each.
Let me know what you think.
I'm so happy I got my Serra's Sanctum early enough then.
I don't think the two are necessarily mutually exclusive; and I expect for the prices on my "investments" to rise regardless of whether anyone on here chooses to listen to what I have to say. These are just my personal thoughts and if you don't agree with them/trust my judgment then that's fine. I'd encourage everyone to take a look at where the prices on these cards are headed and to judge for themselves; (**DISCLOSURE**) I have an interest in some of these cards--I already pretty much disclosed the ones I went in on--but many others I do not. I'd also suggest everyone scour the Reserved List for themselves to identify any cards that I might have missed.
That having been said, I'm no fan of the Reserve List and don't like that it creates a high barrier to entry--including for Yours Truly. I'm just calling it like I see it; the cat's out of the bag and any halfway playable Reserve List card is about to spike sooner or later (probably sooner) as Johnny-come-lately "speculators" get in on the action and futilely try and recreate the Moat/Lion's Eye Diamond/City of Traitors action. The $50 (average TCGPlayer market price for your Reserve List staples) question is who is going to get in on the action and reap the benefits--speculators or people who actually enjoy playing the game; I see a lot of people lamenting the Reserve List on here, but very few people taking the obvious practical step of getting out ahead of the next set of spikes to mitigate the fallout.
If you want these cards, all I'm saying is that I think it's probably prudent to buy sooner, rather than later. (Lesson learned with Serra's Sanctum, which I unfortunately missed out on.)
(Also known as Xenphire)
Unless you're buying in high volume paying the shipping from Europe for individual cards typically isn't worth the difference if you're buying the United States.
This isn't about whether buyouts are a good or bad thing, and it's not necessarily about "speculation" either. It's about reality (the "prophecy" is going to fulfill itself one way or another--it's a matter of if, not when--and no amount of wishing otherwise or calling it "hysteria" is going to change simple market economics) and not being the one left standing when the music stops--i.e. getting the cards before they spike to ridiculous prices.