What is the frequency of us seeing new MM sets on a predictable basis?
With the second release of Modern Masters and the additive "2015" to the name, there seems to be some intent of continuing to release MM sets. The current gap is 2 years (7June2013 to 22May2015), but that trend doesn't seem likely to continue. If WotC wants to add 6ish blocks every release they'll have to slow down the MM releases; yet, there are likely not enough slots available for all the MM worthy rares, so continuous releases may not be a terrible thing.
Thoughts?
I'm not looking to start something deep, I don't care about prices, just looking for some info about the frequency of releases.
Every search I've done lands me squarely in a price debate or a spoiler discussion.
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It was a *tremendous* success for WotC, but it took time for WotC to react to that.
WotC are *very* good at capitalizing on opportunities.
As such, it's my expectation that there will be a Modern Masters product annually but they missed 2014 because they weren't able to release it in time.
Edit to clarify: I'm speculating here. We know nothing firm.
By 2017, Return to Ravnica will be 5 years old. I don't think it is unreasonable to release these every 2 years. Each release, they will get 2 full years of new cards to add to the mix. They can focus on the two most recent sets when looking for draft archetypes, so that there for sure will be some new feel when compared to the previous editions.
As more and more editions are viable in each release, it will become necessary to skip some key cards in each edition, just because of the number of rare/mythic slots available. This will make it even more necessary to have rather frequent editions.
Another factor is how they handle the print volume. The print run of the first edition was so low that the demand for MM2015 was very high just two years later. Depending on how much they have printed this time around, perhaps demand will take a little longer to pick up. I don't think they will be flooding the market with goyfs or anything, but this will surely be a factor.
Finally: How much are they making on an MM release compared to whatever other supplemental product they would be selling? I'm guessing MM is a cash machine for them, but I have no idea how Conspiracy did in comparison, or how they feel something like Planechase 2016 would fare.
By 2017, Return to Ravnica will be 5 years old. I don't think it is unreasonable to release these every 2 years. Each release, they will get 2 full years of new cards to add to the mix. They can focus on the two most recent sets when looking for draft archetypes, so that there for sure will be some new feel when compared to the previous editions.
5 years is pretty long, but it'll catch up eventually and that's more or less the point. I don't think they want MM to turn into "This was standard, now it's in a new package", or "this is the same MM as the last two releases except you can get these 4 to 8 new cards!"; however, if too much of the MM is based on the past 2 years (aka Standard), then it'll just be reprints that came along too soon.
MM was useful because plenty of those cards have been out of print for a long long time. 8th Edition (oldest set in MM) was released a full 10 years before MM1, Alara Reborn (youngest set in MM) was printed in 2009 4 years before (not so bad), that's 6 years of cards 4 years prior to make a 10 year look back (4 year minimum). For now WotC is just saying "We're reprinting anything from 8th to four years ago, so deal with it". Both MMs, according to the salvation wiki, have cards dating back to 8th, but their youngest set updates to whatever was released four years ago, that's currently New Phyrexia in 2011. Is a four year wait for reprints long enough? (MM13MM15)
I can totally understand a new MM every 2 years though. I just want to find some predictability.
When the whole MM2015 is out, I may do a once over to see what percentage of the sets are different. From what I can see already it's not that bad, but I'm still interested in the evolution. Maybe once we have some more MMs to compare it to we'll see something insightful, but for now Empathogen probably has a point.
5 years is pretty long, but it'll catch up eventually and that's more or less the point.
It won't catch up if they release it every 2 years and expand the cardpool with 2 years every time.
And I think there is a lot of space between "This was standard, now it's in a new package" and "this is the same MM as the last two releases except you can get these 4 to 8 new cards!" For one, there are a ton of things in the old sets they haven't done in MM so far (like an infect or snow draft archetype for example) that can be included as new draft archetypes, and the two new blocks will also introduce new themes that can take a up a large portion of the set. This doesn't have to mean that too many cards have to be "new", with as large a card pool as Modern, they will find older cards that fit into newer themes.
Going forward, there will also be 2 blocks released per year. We're told the number of cards will be about the same, but with a core set effectively being replaced by a large set, I would think that this adds more drafteable strategies to the mix every year.
Having said all that, I believe that Wizards do know that MM is a resource that they have to manage carefully.
Every two years seems about right. Seems like a safe minimum distance from Standard. A yearly release would just catch it up to Standard to quickly which Wizards wouldn't want since every Standard set is already Modern legal and releasing a product that has some of the cards from a still in print set doesn't make sense for a reprint set.
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Every search I've done lands me squarely in a price debate or a spoiler discussion.
Well it makes sense that every search will end up in a price discussion... The entire foundation of modern masters is based on card prices. If the cards included were not excessively expensive, there would not be nearly as much excitement about the set and it would be much more like an awkward return of the core sets that is based on limited play rather than having standard in mind. Card prices determine the modern master release timeline.
Two data points are not enough to determine a pattern.
I would guess this one is also an experiment of sorts,
and they may even officially announce a schedule after they collect the data from MM2.
Technically no number of points are enough to determine a pattern.
I do think you are correct that this is another experiment and will be used to form a release schedule though.
5 years is pretty long, but it'll catch up eventually and that's more or less the point.
It won't catch up if they release it every 2 years and expand the cardpool with 2 years every time.
Of course it will catch up. New releases need to bias towards the new sets to differentiate themselves from previous releases. As the releases continue, the proportion of new sets (constant 2 years) to old sets (4 + 2*releaseNumber) decreases each time. The only way for it to not catch up is for the releases to be distant enough that the large majority of cards is from the new sets. 2 years should catch up in just a few iterations.
I see where this is going... They replace bi-yearly standard core sets with yearly ones, only to replace those with bi-yearly modern core sets... eventually replaced with yearly ones, which are subsequently replaced with bi-yearly legacy core sets heralding the end of the... EXPLOSION!!!
I personally see this as turning into a once every 4 years thing. The first MM showed them they were too conservative, so they decided to do it again as soon as possible. 2 years later we have MM2. This will be another success, but if they do this too often, people will get frustrated with staple cards swinging in value so often and God forbid we end up with a modern reserved list. While a modern reserved list is likely 0.00001% likely if they tick people off, just ticking people off with wild swings can have a negative impact on sets. Also, by waiting for years for each MM set to drop, it gives them time for 8 more sets and a bunch of new draft styles to come into existence based upon the new system of set releases. Now if only they would do a legacy masters set but instead just call it Magic Masters so we could have reprints of awesome cards that would be fun to draft and are not even legal in Legacy. Imagine a reprint of Mana Drain. One can dream.
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How often MM gets made will depend entirely on demand for new printings. And the only way to know that is to analyze how well the product sells, and what people are still looking for afterward.
As more and more editions are viable in each release, it will become necessary to skip some key cards in each edition, just because of the number of rare/mythic slots available. This will make it even more necessary to have rather frequent editions.
This should be added to the OP. Very good point on why there will likely be frequent editions.
I would argue that the first "Modern Masters" was Chronicles, and that showed it's possible to overdo this sort of thing.
Personally, I expect to see sets no more than once every 3 years, but it depends on what demand looks like going forward as well as what kind of production run WotC is going for.
I personally see this as turning into a once every 4 years thing. The first MM showed them they were too conservative, so they decided to do it again as soon as possible. 2 years later we have MM2. This will be another success, but if they do this too often, people will get frustrated with staple cards swinging in value so often and God forbid we end up with a modern reserved list. While a modern reserved list is likely 0.00001% likely if they tick people off, just ticking people off with wild swings can have a negative impact on sets. Also, by waiting for years for each MM set to drop, it gives them time for 8 more sets and a bunch of new draft styles to come into existence based upon the new system of set releases. Now if only they would do a legacy masters set but instead just call it Magic Masters so we could have reprints of awesome cards that would be fun to draft and are not even legal in Legacy. Imagine a reprint of Mana Drain. One can dream.
Actually, the possibility of swingy prices is exactly why they should do this every 1-2 years. If everyone knows that Modern cards could be part of a set dedicated to reprinting cards for the Modern pool on a fairly regular basis, we should start to see prices stabilize a little more than we have now. Once people realize that their Dark Confidants or Vendillion Cliques could be printed again, there is less of a chance of people hoarding the cards hoping to make a profit.
This lets the people that want to play with the cards buy them at a reasonable price without having to worry that over the course of 3-4 years that the card will double or triple in value because of the lack of more copies entering circulation.
A more regular release schedule also allows different cards to be reprinted each time as others have mentioned. Imagine if each set bolsters the Modern community, but the supply of Dark Confidants and Tarmogoyfs don't change for another 8 years as they will eventually be skipped. Those cards would go up extremely high (Tarmogoyfs are already there, but imagine they go higher still) until they are reprinted again to drop the prices.
well for cards like Goyf (read;Goyf) they just need to bite the bullet and print it in Standard when fetches leave. nothing else will help with that damn card unless MM2 is a LOT bigger
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Lets just hope MM3 doesn't have another jump in msrp. Imagine the next one with an msrp of 13 bucks a pack. If It weren't for getting my box at 180, I would have skipped this set.
And just to add to the Magic Masters set fantasy, included with all the old goodies they could reprint, it would have the added bonus of being able to have New cards too, just like conspiracy did. I'm calling it first, Magic Masters will have an Urza Walker card. One can dream.
Is Modern Masters just becoming the core set? A new, edgier core set with much stronger cards, but with a release every year (or two) and the core set being retired, that's how it feels to me.
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Every two years alternating with a Modern Event Deck seems reasonable to me
This is what I'm expecting also. I believe that in 2016, we will see another Modern Event Deck, but it will be more impressive and have more value than the last one. the B/W token deck really disappointed a lot of players. I can see them raising the price to $100 but we get about $200+ worth of value in cards (we'll also get die, sleeves, tokens, etc.)
I see where this is going... They replace bi-yearly standard core sets with yearly ones, only to replace those with bi-yearly modern core sets... eventually replaced with yearly ones, which are subsequently replaced with bi-yearly legacy core sets heralding the end of the... EXPLOSION!!!
And once they change to a yearly release of MM, Wizards can decide that it's a good way to add a "limited" number of new cards to the modern card pool, that are just a bit too powerful for standard. So for those who have been playing for years, they won't be able to ignore this product as it will no longer be all reprints (as they did with the change in core sets). New cards = more demand = more sales. Put most of those new cards at Mythic (don't want to "ruin the draft environment"), and raise the MSRP a bit more, just keep the printing press going!
I see where this is going... They replace bi-yearly standard core sets with yearly ones, only to replace those with bi-yearly modern core sets... eventually replaced with yearly ones, which are subsequently replaced with bi-yearly legacy core sets heralding the end of the... EXPLOSION!!!
And once they change to a yearly release of MM, Wizards can decide that it's a good way to add a "limited" number of new cards to the modern card pool, that are just a bit too powerful for standard. So for those who have been playing for years, they won't be able to ignore this product as it will no longer be all reprints (as they did with the change in core sets). New cards = more demand = more sales. Put most of those new cards at Mythic (don't want to "ruin the draft environment"), and raise the MSRP a bit more, just keep the printing press going!
That sounded really awesome until I read "put most of those new cards at mythic." Hopefully that part doesn't happen lol.
Considering that MM takes the supplemental product slot, i don't think we would see MM as a yearly product, unless at some point it gets it's own slot as Commander did.
With the second release of Modern Masters and the additive "2015" to the name, there seems to be some intent of continuing to release MM sets. The current gap is 2 years (7June2013 to 22May2015), but that trend doesn't seem likely to continue. If WotC wants to add 6ish blocks every release they'll have to slow down the MM releases; yet, there are likely not enough slots available for all the MM worthy rares, so continuous releases may not be a terrible thing.
Thoughts?
I'm not looking to start something deep, I don't care about prices, just looking for some info about the frequency of releases.
Every search I've done lands me squarely in a price debate or a spoiler discussion.
"Reveal a Dragon"
I would guess this one is also an experiment of sorts,
and they may even officially announce a schedule after they collect the data from MM2.
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EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
It was a *tremendous* success for WotC, but it took time for WotC to react to that.
WotC are *very* good at capitalizing on opportunities.
As such, it's my expectation that there will be a Modern Masters product annually but they missed 2014 because they weren't able to release it in time.
Edit to clarify: I'm speculating here. We know nothing firm.
As more and more editions are viable in each release, it will become necessary to skip some key cards in each edition, just because of the number of rare/mythic slots available. This will make it even more necessary to have rather frequent editions.
Another factor is how they handle the print volume. The print run of the first edition was so low that the demand for MM2015 was very high just two years later. Depending on how much they have printed this time around, perhaps demand will take a little longer to pick up. I don't think they will be flooding the market with goyfs or anything, but this will surely be a factor.
Finally: How much are they making on an MM release compared to whatever other supplemental product they would be selling? I'm guessing MM is a cash machine for them, but I have no idea how Conspiracy did in comparison, or how they feel something like Planechase 2016 would fare.
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MM was useful because plenty of those cards have been out of print for a long long time. 8th Edition (oldest set in MM) was released a full 10 years before MM1, Alara Reborn (youngest set in MM) was printed in 2009 4 years before (not so bad), that's 6 years of cards 4 years prior to make a 10 year look back (4 year minimum). For now WotC is just saying "We're reprinting anything from 8th to four years ago, so deal with it". Both MMs, according to the salvation wiki, have cards dating back to 8th, but their youngest set updates to whatever was released four years ago, that's currently New Phyrexia in 2011. Is a four year wait for reprints long enough? (MM13 MM15)
I can totally understand a new MM every 2 years though. I just want to find some predictability.
When the whole MM2015 is out, I may do a once over to see what percentage of the sets are different. From what I can see already it's not that bad, but I'm still interested in the evolution. Maybe once we have some more MMs to compare it to we'll see something insightful, but for now Empathogen probably has a point.
"Reveal a Dragon"
And I think there is a lot of space between "This was standard, now it's in a new package" and "this is the same MM as the last two releases except you can get these 4 to 8 new cards!" For one, there are a ton of things in the old sets they haven't done in MM so far (like an infect or snow draft archetype for example) that can be included as new draft archetypes, and the two new blocks will also introduce new themes that can take a up a large portion of the set. This doesn't have to mean that too many cards have to be "new", with as large a card pool as Modern, they will find older cards that fit into newer themes.
Going forward, there will also be 2 blocks released per year. We're told the number of cards will be about the same, but with a core set effectively being replaced by a large set, I would think that this adds more drafteable strategies to the mix every year.
Having said all that, I believe that Wizards do know that MM is a resource that they have to manage carefully.
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Well it makes sense that every search will end up in a price discussion... The entire foundation of modern masters is based on card prices. If the cards included were not excessively expensive, there would not be nearly as much excitement about the set and it would be much more like an awkward return of the core sets that is based on limited play rather than having standard in mind. Card prices determine the modern master release timeline.
Technically no number of points are enough to determine a pattern.
I do think you are correct that this is another experiment and will be used to form a release schedule though.
Of course it will catch up. New releases need to bias towards the new sets to differentiate themselves from previous releases. As the releases continue, the proportion of new sets (constant 2 years) to old sets (4 + 2*releaseNumber) decreases each time. The only way for it to not catch up is for the releases to be distant enough that the large majority of cards is from the new sets. 2 years should catch up in just a few iterations.
RIP Batman guy. I hope somebody picks up the slack now that you are gone. Sick children need their Batman.
Personally, I expect to see sets no more than once every 3 years, but it depends on what demand looks like going forward as well as what kind of production run WotC is going for.
Actually, the possibility of swingy prices is exactly why they should do this every 1-2 years. If everyone knows that Modern cards could be part of a set dedicated to reprinting cards for the Modern pool on a fairly regular basis, we should start to see prices stabilize a little more than we have now. Once people realize that their Dark Confidants or Vendillion Cliques could be printed again, there is less of a chance of people hoarding the cards hoping to make a profit.
This lets the people that want to play with the cards buy them at a reasonable price without having to worry that over the course of 3-4 years that the card will double or triple in value because of the lack of more copies entering circulation.
A more regular release schedule also allows different cards to be reprinted each time as others have mentioned. Imagine if each set bolsters the Modern community, but the supply of Dark Confidants and Tarmogoyfs don't change for another 8 years as they will eventually be skipped. Those cards would go up extremely high (Tarmogoyfs are already there, but imagine they go higher still) until they are reprinted again to drop the prices.
I do like the idea of a "Magic Masters" set.
And just to add to the Magic Masters set fantasy, included with all the old goodies they could reprint, it would have the added bonus of being able to have New cards too, just like conspiracy did. I'm calling it first, Magic Masters will have an Urza Walker card. One can dream.
RIP Batman guy. I hope somebody picks up the slack now that you are gone. Sick children need their Batman.
This is what I'm expecting also. I believe that in 2016, we will see another Modern Event Deck, but it will be more impressive and have more value than the last one. the B/W token deck really disappointed a lot of players. I can see them raising the price to $100 but we get about $200+ worth of value in cards (we'll also get die, sleeves, tokens, etc.)
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And once they change to a yearly release of MM, Wizards can decide that it's a good way to add a "limited" number of new cards to the modern card pool, that are just a bit too powerful for standard. So for those who have been playing for years, they won't be able to ignore this product as it will no longer be all reprints (as they did with the change in core sets). New cards = more demand = more sales. Put most of those new cards at Mythic (don't want to "ruin the draft environment"), and raise the MSRP a bit more, just keep the printing press going!
Any more frequent and I think the prices will not hold up. Especially if they want to price it the way they have.
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