While this set had more high end reprints than I thought and it will definitely help with many of their prices, especially uncommons and the $5 rares, at $16 a pack this set is definitely a "buy singles" only kind of set. For every $50 card you open in one pack you'll open $3 in another.
While this set had more high end reprints than I thought and it will definitely help with many of their prices, especially uncommons and the $5 rares, at $16 a pack this set is definitely a "buy singles" only kind of set. For every $50 card you open in one pack you'll open $3 in another.
well i wouldnt say that.
If the estimated value is above the price tag , you actually do good buying and opening packs.
So if you are lucky in a box to make a profit, you can keep the chain going to buy more, till you fizzle out, as long as you sell all the cards worth something basically immediately (kinda like the professor does the box openings chaining till they lose money).
Sure, you can be unlucky, but the entire point is, on average you should make a profit.
The buy-singles is for sets that have a estimated value that is below the price of the packs, then you would make a loss on average.
On this set, if you can get it for its non-inflated price tag, its actually one of the rare sets that is worth buying and opening.
Singles for the expensive cards are still expensive, so if you want "specific" cards, sure, buy singles, thats the point of it.
Collectors packs special foil variants will be insanely expensive, as 4% per collectors pack means they are basically masterpieces and most stores dont even get that many of them, so they are very "limited" in quantity, especially if we will most likely not get a 2nd print run of the set (it not being print on demand).
So if you are lucky in a box to make a profit, you can keep the chain going to buy more, till you fizzle out, as long as you sell all the cards worth something basically immediately (kinda like the professor does the box openings chaining till they lose money).
Sure, you can be unlucky, but the entire point is, on average you should make a profit.
But you just agreed with what I said here. Yeah, you can get lucky, but more often than not you won't, and that's the point of this lottery ticket in foil wrapping.
Collectors packs special foil variants will be insanely expensive, as 4% per collectors pack means they are basically masterpieces and most stores dont even get that many of them, so they are very "limited" in quantity, especially if we will most likely not get a 2nd print run of the set (it not being print on demand).
I wouldn't call that a point in this set's favor that something will be so rare that if you can spend $50 you might be lucky enough to open up some uncommons to break even.
It really seems like you agreed with me and yet it came off as rather argumentative. This set is better for buying singles, and while that's normally true for most Magic, it is especially true when you're dealing with $16 packs.
In review, I'm most disappointed with how they handled cards below rare. There are definitely some great downshifts, don't get me wrong. But they failed to reprint a single desperately needed uncommon with the possible exceptions of Dragon Arch and Path to Exile. Thank Goodness for Shadowborn Apostle and Monastery Swiftspear. You need chase commons and uncommons to help bolster the many packs without chase rares.
They could make the set worthhwile with commons likeLotus Petal, Chain Lightning, and Snuff Out without harming (even improving) the limited environment. Mystic Remora would need to be uncommon, and some needed reprints like Priest of Titania would need to wait for a more appropriate set (and also uncommon). But the big whiff is Utopia Sprawl which would fit this set perfectly. Not one of these cards (all originally common) would dip below a dollar for long if reprinted. And I think Rhystic Study would be a nice upshift to uncommon. Like Ashnod's Altar, it would never drop too far.
With uncommons, it's way easier. Force of Will is the obvious pick, and most of us would rejoice in the streets to see it at uncommon again. Legacy would see new players for once. But if they don't have the guts for that, Necromancy would hit the spot. Dance of the Dead if they were willing to show some moxy. And it's about damn time for the never-reprinted Elvish Spirit Guide. But they didn't even throw us a bone with a newer chase card like Pitiless Plunderer. Thanks for Dragon Arch I guess. You woulda sold a lot more packs with the Mystical Tutor mini-cycle. I've played with those enough to know they're not overpowered in limited.
They wouldn't have to reprint all these cards, but just a few careful choices of splashy cards could make the set really worthwhile. For example if they had printed the tutors and Rhystic Study at uncommon with Utopia Sprawl, Manamorphose, and Snuff Out at common, they could have a real hit on their hands. I'd even go to a draft. Sounds like fun!
They have an inexplicable idea that if a card is old and currently valuable, it must be upshifted to rare or (usually) mythic. Probably some malarky about how to make hype. But that's malarky. This set would be way more hype with Force of Will at uncommon than the first Double Masters was for having it at mythic. And the value wouldn't even tank below $20.
...
Long winded. Sorry.
I went to a draft last night, and the store owner was happily talking about how excited his regulars seemed to be for this set (all the while complaining about their fickleness). Then he said as he was thinking about it that it would be a $50 draft. Suddenly he seemed a little scared. But it's too late for him to back off now, and he has to try to get people to go to his event. He needs to try to sell it to normal drafters like me. He has pre-sold some boxes, so there are definitely people on the ground buying this. But I don't like his odds selling what he ordered.
I really think there's a good chance this flops. People are always crying about whales, but whales are just people. They're the ones who pre-ordered the boxes, but they're not enough to keep it afloat. And even they don't like the price tag.
But if it flops, the shop owner (and those like him) will open the packs for singles, eventually (over a long while) recoup their investment by selling them, and put all those cards into the world to lower their prices. And the world continues to spin.
But you just agreed with what I said here. Yeah, you can get lucky, but more often than not you won't, and that's the point of this lottery ticket in foil wrapping.
It really seems like you agreed with me and yet it came off as rather argumentative. This set is better for buying singles, and while that's normally true for most Magic, it is especially true when you're dealing with $16 packs.
If a sets EV is above what you pay for it, you can buy product and keep going basically infinite.
Thats exactly the kind of set you want to buy booster packs from, a set thats in your favor to make a profit.
Any "normal" set has a EV that is below the cost of a booster, so to make that work, you have to get the packs at a big bargain, buying lots of cases and sell basically anything in bulk.
But any set with a positive EV (and not just by a little bit, but by a big margin) , everyone that opens packs is in favor to make a profit, so you sell the big cards and keep anything else for "free" (at least if you can unload the stuff with minimal effort, like store credit).
As an example:
If we throw a D20 dice and you win on 1-14 , and only lose at 15-20, its so much in your favor, you would be outright stupid not to gamble with that odds.
The only reason "not" to buy packs of Double Masters is your own budget limits. If you only can effort 1 box, you cant buy more.
The cost of the packs is a burden for some stores even, it can be detrimental to their budget so they have no choice then to unload the packs asap to pay their employees (some stores in the past even go in dept to buy such a product they are sure to sell quickly, and thats a risk).
I wouldn't call that a point in this set's favor that something will be so rare that if you can spend $50 you might be lucky enough to open up some uncommons to break even.
All the possible value is added to the value of a pack, it adds to the EV.
So thats true for the Collectors packs only, which are already quite exensive (200+ bucks for 4 packs).
You can be lucky and hit big, and if you do, it can be REALLY big (like a Masterpiece).
You dont expect it, but its a non-zero chance (4%).
The fact this set is limited and not print on demand puts extra value on top of it, as the high demand will be much higher than the product thats available, and also stores cant just buy infinite, they would buy more, but they cant.
1. Don't buy packs and/or boxes. Let someone else do it and take the hit to their wallet. (This includes skipping Draft)
2. Buy singles but expect the prices of those sought after/playable/staples to be higher #1 above have to recoup from the bad decision they made in buying at those exhorbitant prices.
3. Don't buy any of it. Send a message with your wallet.
4. Go buy scratch off lotto tickets. Odds aren't much worse and the ceiling of hitting the big one is WAY higher.
Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
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that's not really how probability works. if you had infinite resources to buy infinite boosters then yes, but neither is true so there is still possible a failstate where you lose money on that "investment". you even admit it by saying you need you open multiple boxes. if that was not the case there would be no reason for vendors to sell those packs instead of open them and sell singles. another example of the same principle is modo bots selling chests below ev.
sure the probability that you end up with less money that when you started goes down the more packs you open but it's never certain that you end up with profit. most people is fine with that as the amount you can lose is also a probabilistic function and you are not very likely to lose a lot but again lets not mislead people with saying you cannot lose because you still can lose.
that's not really how probability works. if you had infinite resources to buy infinite boosters then yes, but neither is true so there is still possible a failstate where you lose money on that "investment". you even admit it by saying you need you open multiple boxes. if that was not the case there would be no reason for vendors to sell those packs instead of open them and sell singles. another example of the same principle is modo bots selling chests below ev.
sure the probability that you end up with less money that when you started goes down the more packs you open but it's never certain that you end up with profit. most people is fine with that as the amount you can lose is also a probabilistic function and you are not very likely to lose a lot but again lets not mislead people with saying you cannot lose because you still can lose.
To add some additional grounding in reality to this conversation: if buying and selling cards was particularly profitable, running a game store would also be particularly profitable. As an individual, you're gonna have trouble selling at the market prices a game store or dedicated website would sell for, so you'll also mostly have to make do with buylist prices unless you're willing to put in quite a bit of time, at which point you've just gone and gotten a low paying part time job to replace your hobby.
Yeah, selling cards is not as easy as saying "Wrenn and Six is valued at $55. Here's a Wrenn and Six. Thanks for the $55." Even if you crack great value, if you turn around and try to sell your singles, you are just a card vendor like any other. Stock sits on shelves.
Are the tokens up anywhere? Be nice to see which art they used for Monastery Monk. I've no interest in buying Monk Tokens but the League Tokens are crazy expensive.
Yeah, selling cards is not as easy as saying "Wrenn and Six is valued at $55. Here's a Wrenn and Six. Thanks for the $55." Even if you crack great value, if you turn around and try to sell your singles, you are just a card vendor like any other. Stock sits on shelves.
I mean, unless you're looking for equal exchange value than cash, they tend to be more willing to go with whatever the card is worth* for exchange or trade. I opened my first pack of Modern Horizons I and got a foil Wrenn and Six around the time MH1 came out, and the store I got the pack at was willing to take it off of me for a box of MH1 that instant. I opted to keep the card.
Cash value...eh, unless you're getting a direct buy from a non-store entity, chances of you getting full value* are slim.
*depends on condition of the card, and throws-in as well*
'buster
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'buster
HR Analyst. Gamer. Activist | Fearless, and forthright | Aggro-control is a mindset. Elspeth and Jhoira rock my world.
Are the tokens up anywhere? Be nice to see which art they used for Monastery Monk. I've no interest in buying Monk Tokens but the League Tokens are crazy expensive.
Ya know, if you want to get anything out of DM2X2, then you're gonna want to get the alternates. That's where the $ is if you value the EV over anything else.
But that requires some investment on its own too...
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'buster
HR Analyst. Gamer. Activist | Fearless, and forthright | Aggro-control is a mindset. Elspeth and Jhoira rock my world.
Welp I went to check out a few packs of 2X2 yesterday, Mind Games at the Oshawa Centre had each draft pack at C$25 ($125 for the collector pack)! Sky Fox has draft packs on for $49.99.
I got two draft packs. Best card I got out of a pack was a foil Child of Alara. If it was $16 sure I can understand but anything more than that it's not worth it.
Even Imperial Seal is dropping hard (the non-P3K version anyway).
I was burned with the first Double Masters so I'm not sure I'll be quick to invest in these products moving forward, outside of singles.
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Spoiler EditorHere are the last uncommons of the set.
And the last downshifts.
Qasali Pridemage and Coiling Oracle are the last borderless arts of the set.
Here's that Shadowborn Apostle reprint many people were asking for.
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Spoiler Editorwell i wouldnt say that.
If the estimated value is above the price tag , you actually do good buying and opening packs.
So if you are lucky in a box to make a profit, you can keep the chain going to buy more, till you fizzle out, as long as you sell all the cards worth something basically immediately (kinda like the professor does the box openings chaining till they lose money).
Sure, you can be unlucky, but the entire point is, on average you should make a profit.
The buy-singles is for sets that have a estimated value that is below the price of the packs, then you would make a loss on average.
On this set, if you can get it for its non-inflated price tag, its actually one of the rare sets that is worth buying and opening.
Singles for the expensive cards are still expensive, so if you want "specific" cards, sure, buy singles, thats the point of it.
Collectors packs special foil variants will be insanely expensive, as 4% per collectors pack means they are basically masterpieces and most stores dont even get that many of them, so they are very "limited" in quantity, especially if we will most likely not get a 2nd print run of the set (it not being print on demand).
WUBRG#BlackLotusMatterWUBRG
👮👮👮 #BlueLivesMatter 👮👮👮
ooooh that’s….pretty dangerous of warping pauper just like with swiftspear
this opens the door for infect decks in pauper since there are definitely infect creatures at common
But you just agreed with what I said here. Yeah, you can get lucky, but more often than not you won't, and that's the point of this lottery ticket in foil wrapping.
I wouldn't call that a point in this set's favor that something will be so rare that if you can spend $50 you might be lucky enough to open up some uncommons to break even.
It really seems like you agreed with me and yet it came off as rather argumentative. This set is better for buying singles, and while that's normally true for most Magic, it is especially true when you're dealing with $16 packs.
They could make the set worthhwile with commons likeLotus Petal, Chain Lightning, and Snuff Out without harming (even improving) the limited environment. Mystic Remora would need to be uncommon, and some needed reprints like Priest of Titania would need to wait for a more appropriate set (and also uncommon). But the big whiff is Utopia Sprawl which would fit this set perfectly. Not one of these cards (all originally common) would dip below a dollar for long if reprinted. And I think Rhystic Study would be a nice upshift to uncommon. Like Ashnod's Altar, it would never drop too far.
With uncommons, it's way easier. Force of Will is the obvious pick, and most of us would rejoice in the streets to see it at uncommon again. Legacy would see new players for once. But if they don't have the guts for that, Necromancy would hit the spot. Dance of the Dead if they were willing to show some moxy. And it's about damn time for the never-reprinted Elvish Spirit Guide. But they didn't even throw us a bone with a newer chase card like Pitiless Plunderer. Thanks for Dragon Arch I guess. You woulda sold a lot more packs with the Mystical Tutor mini-cycle. I've played with those enough to know they're not overpowered in limited.
They wouldn't have to reprint all these cards, but just a few careful choices of splashy cards could make the set really worthwhile. For example if they had printed the tutors and Rhystic Study at uncommon with Utopia Sprawl, Manamorphose, and Snuff Out at common, they could have a real hit on their hands. I'd even go to a draft. Sounds like fun!
They have an inexplicable idea that if a card is old and currently valuable, it must be upshifted to rare or (usually) mythic. Probably some malarky about how to make hype. But that's malarky. This set would be way more hype with Force of Will at uncommon than the first Double Masters was for having it at mythic. And the value wouldn't even tank below $20.
Long winded. Sorry.
I really think there's a good chance this flops. People are always crying about whales, but whales are just people. They're the ones who pre-ordered the boxes, but they're not enough to keep it afloat. And even they don't like the price tag.
But if it flops, the shop owner (and those like him) will open the packs for singles, eventually (over a long while) recoup their investment by selling them, and put all those cards into the world to lower their prices. And the world continues to spin.
Low-power cube enthusiast!
My 1570 card cube (no longer updated)
My 415 Peasant+ Artifact and Enchantment Cube
Ever-Expanding "Just throw it in" cube.
If a sets EV is above what you pay for it, you can buy product and keep going basically infinite.
Thats exactly the kind of set you want to buy booster packs from, a set thats in your favor to make a profit.
Any "normal" set has a EV that is below the cost of a booster, so to make that work, you have to get the packs at a big bargain, buying lots of cases and sell basically anything in bulk.
But any set with a positive EV (and not just by a little bit, but by a big margin) , everyone that opens packs is in favor to make a profit, so you sell the big cards and keep anything else for "free" (at least if you can unload the stuff with minimal effort, like store credit).
As an example:
If we throw a D20 dice and you win on 1-14 , and only lose at 15-20, its so much in your favor, you would be outright stupid not to gamble with that odds.
The only reason "not" to buy packs of Double Masters is your own budget limits. If you only can effort 1 box, you cant buy more.
The cost of the packs is a burden for some stores even, it can be detrimental to their budget so they have no choice then to unload the packs asap to pay their employees (some stores in the past even go in dept to buy such a product they are sure to sell quickly, and thats a risk).
All the possible value is added to the value of a pack, it adds to the EV.
So thats true for the Collectors packs only, which are already quite exensive (200+ bucks for 4 packs).
You can be lucky and hit big, and if you do, it can be REALLY big (like a Masterpiece).
You dont expect it, but its a non-zero chance (4%).
The fact this set is limited and not print on demand puts extra value on top of it, as the high demand will be much higher than the product thats available, and also stores cant just buy infinite, they would buy more, but they cant.
WUBRG#BlackLotusMatterWUBRG
👮👮👮 #BlueLivesMatter 👮👮👮
2. Buy singles but expect the prices of those sought after/playable/staples to be higher #1 above have to recoup from the bad decision they made in buying at those exhorbitant prices.
3. Don't buy any of it. Send a message with your wallet.
4. Go buy scratch off lotto tickets. Odds aren't much worse and the ceiling of hitting the big one is WAY higher.
Choose one of the above.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
sure the probability that you end up with less money that when you started goes down the more packs you open but it's never certain that you end up with profit. most people is fine with that as the amount you can lose is also a probabilistic function and you are not very likely to lose a lot but again lets not mislead people with saying you cannot lose because you still can lose.
To add some additional grounding in reality to this conversation: if buying and selling cards was particularly profitable, running a game store would also be particularly profitable. As an individual, you're gonna have trouble selling at the market prices a game store or dedicated website would sell for, so you'll also mostly have to make do with buylist prices unless you're willing to put in quite a bit of time, at which point you've just gone and gotten a low paying part time job to replace your hobby.
Low-power cube enthusiast!
My 1570 card cube (no longer updated)
My 415 Peasant+ Artifact and Enchantment Cube
Ever-Expanding "Just throw it in" cube.
I mean, unless you're looking for equal exchange value than cash, they tend to be more willing to go with whatever the card is worth* for exchange or trade. I opened my first pack of Modern Horizons I and got a foil Wrenn and Six around the time MH1 came out, and the store I got the pack at was willing to take it off of me for a box of MH1 that instant. I opted to keep the card.
Cash value...eh, unless you're getting a direct buy from a non-store entity, chances of you getting full value* are slim.
*depends on condition of the card, and throws-in as well*
'buster
HR Analyst. Gamer. Activist | Fearless, and forthright | Aggro-control is a mindset.
Elspeth and Jhoira rock my world.
https://scryfall.com/card/t2x2/6/monk
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/card-preview/tokens-double-masters-2022-2022-06-24
But that requires some investment on its own too...
'buster
HR Analyst. Gamer. Activist | Fearless, and forthright | Aggro-control is a mindset.
Elspeth and Jhoira rock my world.
I got two draft packs. Best card I got out of a pack was a foil Child of Alara. If it was $16 sure I can understand but anything more than that it's not worth it.
Even Imperial Seal is dropping hard (the non-P3K version anyway).
I was burned with the first Double Masters so I'm not sure I'll be quick to invest in these products moving forward, outside of singles.
'buster
HR Analyst. Gamer. Activist | Fearless, and forthright | Aggro-control is a mindset.
Elspeth and Jhoira rock my world.
Who gambles on VIP packs?
Very Ignorant Purchasers!
I used to be a demigod, but now I'm an omnimage
Purchase VIP packs, wait, sell VIP packs, profit?
Dockside Extortionist is pretty solid.
https://archidekt.com/user/71716