Generally, the enemy fetchlands, JTMS, Karn, Cavern of Souls, Lightning Bolt, Path to Exile, etc, are all cards that even the new cards will hold a higher value than something like back to basics or Imperial Recruiter. The reason for this is kind of strait forward: The modern crowd cares about the card for gameplay, not necessarily for it's printing. That's why older, non-unique art prints of things like Tarmogoyf are far closer together than something like Karakas.
But I asked for old cards. As in pre-8th edition frames. We already know that similar printings will hold similar value, just look at my Shivan Dragon example.
However, it's interesting that you note Tarmogoyf, as 'goyf's FS printing is near double the price of any other printing. What's even more interesting, is that the you compare Tarmogoyf to Karaks. Did you know that the Eternal Masters version of Karakas is at around $60, while the Legends version is at $80. But 'goyf is at around $55 for the MM17 version and $95 for the FS version. It would seem there is actually a wider gap between goyf.
I think you are making a number of assumptions without really understanding all the forces at play here on card pricing. The biggest thing is print run, and any old card (pre-8th) is drastically under printed by today's standards.
From what I have stated to this point, my argument is that no old card can be printed with the expectation that it's price will mirror the old version. So to appease you, they would need to only select modern cards (8th edition + M15 frames) to print. However, they aren't going to do that for this set, this isn't Modern Masters, this is a different set.
When’s the last time they printed a planeswalker sub Mythic?
Oh yeah, before mythics existed.
On one hand that's a good point, but on the other hand, I wouldn't put too much faith in precedent. WotC can do whatever they want, and precedents are made to be broken.
For example, when's the last time they printed a set with a $13.99 MSRP?
When's the last time they used an uncommon as a Buy-A-Box promo? (Kitchen Finks, Eternal Witness).
Yea but based on that
No way in heck ugin will be downshift from those abilities
Here comes the chaff. (Set to the the Beatles "Here Comes the Sun".)
Here comes the chaff.
It won't be alright.
Could not resist. Maybe I'll be surprised.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Earlier in this thread, someone rather succinctly lamented that WotC knowingly included duds in the box-topper spot. This is the point that sticks in my mind when considering Ultimate Masters. This is the most expensive set of all time, and they still pulled this crap. Additionally, some of the mythic choices are garbage! Platinum Emperion would probably be a welcomed inclusion in any other set, but not here. Not to me anyway. From what is already known about the set, I'm not buying any, and I don't see how the next three days will move the needle. We'll see, I guess.
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Can you name all of the creature types with at least 20 cards? Try my Sporcle Quiz! Last Updated: 6/29/20 (Core Set 2021).
If they include stuff like Food Chain and a bunch of other staples for Commander, Legacy and maybe move the needle a bit on Modern (they could have put in the Leylines, for example) it might be worth it. In the end, I sure as heck won't be getting a box and my pal that generally get a box of Modern Masters won't be either. Since the price is prohibitive to the casual buyer, it looks like UMA is basically a "thank you" to big sotres like StarCity, ChannelFireball, that "jerk" Rudy and Wal Mart, who will have them at a discount.
We'll see tomorrow, but I'm not super confident in the commons or uncommons, which will need to be essentially all hits for these packs to be worth it.
(Less confident because very few of the people that design these sets actually play Magic competitively...but I'm guessing that's because they'd have the equivalent of insider info so they can't do that. )
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The "Crazy One", playing casual magic and occasionally dipping his toes into regular play since 1994.
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
Generally, the enemy fetchlands, JTMS, Karn, Cavern of Souls, Lightning Bolt, Path to Exile, etc, are all cards that even the new cards will hold a higher value than something like back to basics or Imperial Recruiter. The reason for this is kind of strait forward: The modern crowd cares about the card for gameplay, not necessarily for it's printing. That's why older, non-unique art prints of things like Tarmogoyf are far closer together than something like Karakas.
But I asked for old cards. As in pre-8th edition frames. We already know that similar printings will hold similar value, just look at my Shivan Dragon example.
However, it's interesting that you note Tarmogoyf, as 'goyf's FS printing is near double the price of any other printing. What's even more interesting, is that the you compare Tarmogoyf to Karaks. Did you know that the Eternal Masters version of Karakas is at around $60, while the Legends version is at $80. But 'goyf is at around $55 for the MM17 version and $95 for the FS version. It would seem there is actually a wider gap between goyf.
I think you are making a number of assumptions without really understanding all the forces at play here on card pricing. The biggest thing is print run, and any old card (pre-8th) is drastically under printed by today's standards.
From what I have stated to this point, my argument is that no old card can be printed with the expectation that it's price will mirror the old version. So to appease you, they would need to only select modern cards (8th edition + M15 frames) to print. However, they aren't going to do that for this set, this isn't Modern Masters, this is a different set.
They can pick cards that are not modern, but then they can't put those as the chase cards and expect anything good to happen long term. A lot of those pre-8th frame cards could easily be printed in a 120 dollar box simply because the price is only high on the card due to the limited number up for sale. If you want your proof just look at masters 25 or iconic. The market said the price should be 140-150 dollars and that is where they settled. If we run into a similar situation with Ultimate masters the only thing that can save it would be the box topper.
Also, FYI they are not appeasing anyone even if they put all modern cards in the set. The price on masters has been stupid for ages, even for the good ones.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
It’s a tough balance bere. Some cards need reprinting due to supply issues, but see next to no play. At the same time it’s clear Wizards is trying to avoid totally crashing prices. So how many Imperial Recruiters do you put in? Or will Wizarss calculate those scenarioa into EV?
I think cards like Back to Basics are great because they at least have EDH potential, and you know foils will be worth something, and while the price is grossly inflated, the effect is busted.
I’m cautiously optimistic. How many more good rare will there be? How many good uncommons will we get? How much left is bulk? The fact it’s only 2 days of spoilers is exciting, but also weird and a bit uncomfortable. Part of me is excited in we already have so much good stuff. The other part is terrified there’s very little good left, knowing how Wizards does things. We’ll know in 10 hours when the first Mothership article comes out.
I'm not interested in that product at all, but reading this thread opened my eyes on how busted the secondary market is. I suppose it's because of Commander and the reserved list, but I really don't see how they can manage to attract new players and keep them in the game once they suffer their first standard rotation, try to fall back on Modern or EDH, look at their bank account and the potential return (store credits? boosters?) and go away.
I'm not interested in that product at all, but reading this thread opened my eyes on how busted the secondary market is. I suppose it's because of Commander and the reserved list, but I really don't see how they can manage to attract new players and keep them in the game once they suffer their first standard rotation, try to fall back on Modern or EDH, look at their bank account and the potential return (store credits? boosters?) and go away.
Ultimately, Wizards really only care about Standard products, more specifically Standard Limited. As long as they keep going well, they’re happy. This is just extra cash. But that’s what makes the abysmal card stock quality so alarming. Do they really feel that raising the pack prices by a quarter just to get better cardstock in there isn’t a good thing?
We’re honestly luck Wizards reprints anything at all. They’re so ass backwards on everything.
I have been trying to make a list of commons and uncommons that if reprinted will make this set worthwile, and I have come to the conclusion that it is not possible. There are only so many "expensive" commons and uncommons.
Eternal Witness and Kitchen Finks are good... but I think we need Devoted Druid, Path to Exile and Manamorphose to at least feel like we are close to getting MSRP without winning the lottery on the rares/mythics.
I have been trying to make a list of commons and uncommons that if reprinted will make this set worthwile, and I have come to the conclusion that it is not possible. There are only so many "expensive" commons and uncommons.
Eternal Witness and Kitchen Finks are good... but I think we need Devoted Druid, Path to Exile and Manamorphose to at least feel like we are close to getting MSRP without winning the lottery on the rares/mythics.
That's because valuable commons and uncommons are just once piece of the puzzle. It also needs a lot of rarity downshifts from rare to uncommon.
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Can you name all of the creature types with at least 20 cards? Try my Sporcle Quiz! Last Updated: 6/29/20 (Core Set 2021).
This will sell for like 450 to 500$ in Canada. No matter how nice the set looks (and it does so far), I just won't buy any of these lottery ticket, nor will I pay to draft it. WotC has priced me out of their new product, which is sad.
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"De potentia juvenis somniabat, nunc de Mundo somniat..."
The "Crazy One", playing casual magic and occasionally dipping his toes into regular play since 1994.
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
Just about every set in the history of magic has had upwards of 2/3rds of the rares worth less than 1/3 of a pack price. This isn't new. Every pack you ever open you're accepting at least a 50% chance that the rare in it isn't worth half what you paid for the pack.
Just about every set in the history of magic has had upwards of 2/3rds of the rares worth less than 1/3 of a pack price. This isn't new. Every pack you ever open you're accepting at least a 50% chance that the rare in it isn't worth half what you paid for the pack.
Not every set costs 14 dollars per pack. Standards need to be higher for a premium product like this one.
Just about every set in the history of magic has had upwards of 2/3rds of the rares worth less than 1/3 of a pack price. This isn't new. Every pack you ever open you're accepting at least a 50% chance that the rare in it isn't worth half what you paid for the pack.
Not every set costs 14 dollars per pack. Standards need to be higher for a premium product like this one.
Is it a good idea to buy an ultimate masters box without the box topper? Or would I be missing out on too much value? I'm seeing 24 sealed packs for $220 on ebay from a large trusted seller. Claims to remove the box topper and nothing else will be moved/removed. Seems like a decent idea.
But I don't know, maybe these box toppers will be worth a good chunk and I can just see the seller sitting on a ton of these, making a killing off of selling them independently later. So maybe I should just get a complete sealed box
Serious question: Where are the rest of the spoilers? There’s still so much left to be spoiled with like a day and a half left. We still have a ton of rares left and the vast majority of commons and uncommons. If this were a full week of spoilers, it would make sense. But it seems like we’re way behind schedule if the full set is to cone out in a little more than 36 hours.
Is it a good idea to buy an ultimate masters box without the box topper? Or would I be missing out on too much value? I'm seeing 24 sealed packs for $220 on ebay from a large trusted seller. Claims to remove the box topper and nothing else will be moved/removed. Seems like a decent idea.
But I don't know, maybe these box toppers will be worth a good chunk and I can just see the seller sitting on a ton of these, making a killing off of selling them independently later. So maybe I should just get a complete sealed box
$220 seems ok. The Mythics and rares will carry you about $120-$160+, you'd think. Foils get you an extra $20-$50, and the commons are meh. The uncommons might clean up. The issue is if the dude scanned the packs, it's yikes. If the seller is trusted as you say, roll the dice? I'm personally just going to do a few drafts and maybe grab stuff at Target. Just wait for Saffron Olive to do his breakdown, but he's basically stated that you're getting fine EV at $240+ already, even with the rest of the rares being bulk.
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The "Crazy One", playing casual magic and occasionally dipping his toes into regular play since 1994.
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
I think the key with this set is look at cards worth over $20-25 each now. Those are the only ones that might stay over $12-14 pack price.
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Currently Playing: Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me! Legacy: RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R RGBelcherRG WSoldier StompyW BReanimatorB EDH: BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
Many others...
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But I asked for old cards. As in pre-8th edition frames. We already know that similar printings will hold similar value, just look at my Shivan Dragon example.
However, it's interesting that you note Tarmogoyf, as 'goyf's FS printing is near double the price of any other printing. What's even more interesting, is that the you compare Tarmogoyf to Karaks. Did you know that the Eternal Masters version of Karakas is at around $60, while the Legends version is at $80. But 'goyf is at around $55 for the MM17 version and $95 for the FS version. It would seem there is actually a wider gap between goyf.
I think you are making a number of assumptions without really understanding all the forces at play here on card pricing. The biggest thing is print run, and any old card (pre-8th) is drastically under printed by today's standards.
From what I have stated to this point, my argument is that no old card can be printed with the expectation that it's price will mirror the old version. So to appease you, they would need to only select modern cards (8th edition + M15 frames) to print. However, they aren't going to do that for this set, this isn't Modern Masters, this is a different set.
BUWGRChilds PlayGRWUB
BUWGR Highlander GRWUB
UBSquee's Shapeshifting PetBU
BW Multiplayer Control WB
RG Changeling GR
UR Mana FlareRU
UMerfolkU
B MBMC B
Yea but based on that
No way in heck ugin will be downshift from those abilities
The X ability is a exile version of all is dust
Tomorrow we will see how they do with any luck they actually do it right this time on reprints so it’s not to hard to get the value of a pack back
Here comes the chaff.
It won't be alright.
Could not resist. Maybe I'll be surprised.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
My 720 Peasant Cube
We'll see tomorrow, but I'm not super confident in the commons or uncommons, which will need to be essentially all hits for these packs to be worth it.
(Less confident because very few of the people that design these sets actually play Magic competitively...but I'm guessing that's because they'd have the equivalent of insider info so they can't do that. )
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
They can pick cards that are not modern, but then they can't put those as the chase cards and expect anything good to happen long term. A lot of those pre-8th frame cards could easily be printed in a 120 dollar box simply because the price is only high on the card due to the limited number up for sale. If you want your proof just look at masters 25 or iconic. The market said the price should be 140-150 dollars and that is where they settled. If we run into a similar situation with Ultimate masters the only thing that can save it would be the box topper.
Also, FYI they are not appeasing anyone even if they put all modern cards in the set. The price on masters has been stupid for ages, even for the good ones.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I think cards like Back to Basics are great because they at least have EDH potential, and you know foils will be worth something, and while the price is grossly inflated, the effect is busted.
I’m cautiously optimistic. How many more good rare will there be? How many good uncommons will we get? How much left is bulk? The fact it’s only 2 days of spoilers is exciting, but also weird and a bit uncomfortable. Part of me is excited in we already have so much good stuff. The other part is terrified there’s very little good left, knowing how Wizards does things. We’ll know in 10 hours when the first Mothership article comes out.
Ultimately, Wizards really only care about Standard products, more specifically Standard Limited. As long as they keep going well, they’re happy. This is just extra cash. But that’s what makes the abysmal card stock quality so alarming. Do they really feel that raising the pack prices by a quarter just to get better cardstock in there isn’t a good thing?
We’re honestly luck Wizards reprints anything at all. They’re so ass backwards on everything.
Eternal Witness and Kitchen Finks are good... but I think we need Devoted Druid, Path to Exile and Manamorphose to at least feel like we are close to getting MSRP without winning the lottery on the rares/mythics.
8.RG Green Devotion Ramp/Combo 9.UR Draw Triggers 10.WUR Group stalling 11.WUR Voltron Spellslinger 12.WB Sacrificial Shenanigans
13.BR Creatureless Panharmonicon 14.BR Pingers and Eldrazi 15.URG Untapped Cascading
16.Reyhan, last of the Abzan's WUBG +1/+1 Counter Craziness 17.WUBRG Dragons aka Why did I make this?
Building: The Gitrog Monster lands, Glissa the Traitor stax, Muldrotha, the Gravetide Planeswalker Combo, Kydele, Chosen of Kruphix + Sidar Kondo of Jamuraa Clues, and Tribal Scarecrow Planeswalkers
That's because valuable commons and uncommons are just once piece of the puzzle. It also needs a lot of rarity downshifts from rare to uncommon.
My 720 Peasant Cube
This is pretty good but it's no Dreadmaw.
https://twitter.com/menfrommodo/status/1064558517665689601
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
But, it's also a $4-$5 rare. Not worth opening a $14 pack for.
Not every set costs 14 dollars per pack. Standards need to be higher for a premium product like this one.
Looks like already it is.
My 720 Peasant Cube
But I don't know, maybe these box toppers will be worth a good chunk and I can just see the seller sitting on a ton of these, making a killing off of selling them independently later. So maybe I should just get a complete sealed box
That assumes all non-spoiled rates have absolutely zero value and ignores mythic rates, premium cards, and value commons/uncommons.
If you can get that sort of value for under $10 a pack, that seems pretty deece (even without the topper).
$220 seems ok. The Mythics and rares will carry you about $120-$160+, you'd think. Foils get you an extra $20-$50, and the commons are meh. The uncommons might clean up. The issue is if the dude scanned the packs, it's yikes. If the seller is trusted as you say, roll the dice? I'm personally just going to do a few drafts and maybe grab stuff at Target. Just wait for Saffron Olive to do his breakdown, but he's basically stated that you're getting fine EV at $240+ already, even with the rest of the rares being bulk.
Currently focusing on Pre-Modern (Mono-Black Discard Control) and Modern (Azorious Control, Temur Rhinos).
Find me at the Wizard's Tower in Ottawa every second Saturday afternoons.
Currently Playing:
Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me!
Legacy:
RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R
RGBelcherRG
WSoldier StompyW
BReanimatorB
EDH:
BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB
BGeth, Lord of the VaultB