Updated the crunch with a rarity breakdown for each color. I feel each monocolor will get about 7 rares and the other remaining 18 rares will be artifacts/land/multicolored. Hopefully rares are more balanced than the mythics were.
I agree with 7 rares per color theory. I was thinking 8 before (especially because I was hoping that the legends with off-color abilities would be a cycle), but that only would have worked if there were no more colorless/multicolor/land rares spoiled, and seeing Cabal Stronghold proved that theory wrong. It is possible that some colors might get more rares than others. (This used to be something they avoided doing, but that's changed recently; they actually gave white and blue extra rares in Ixalan and blue an extra rare in Rivals, if I'm not mistaken.) However, I doubt that this is the case because having 1 colorless card, 37 cards each for two colors, and 38 each for three colors brings us to 189 exactly before multicolored cards. We definitely can't see more since Adeliz is at 190, and I doubt that we'll see less because it's highly unlikely that we get another multicolored rare whose name happens to be alphabetically before Adeliz. Considering that we have three colors with two mythics (RWB) and two with one (GU), having an equal number of rares across all colors would allow us to have three colors with 38 and two with 37. I also think we can rule out Oath of Karn unless something weird happens - the only way that we could get another colorless nonartifact is with one less white card, which would mean one less white rare (since they don't have different numbers of cards in each color at common/uncommon), and white already has five rares spoiled officially plus Benalish Marshal which is part of a rare cycle and Evra, Halcyon Witness which definitely isn't uncommon. Ultimately, I'm thinking the color/rarity breakdown will look something like this:
I'm guessing that the last mythic (14 of 15 have been spoiled officially) is Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar. It's reasonably mythic-feeling and would complete a cycle of mythic rare legendary creatures (each other color has one, while the three colors with an extra mythic each get a noncreature mythic in addition to their legendary creature). Since the mythics are pretty self-explanatory, I'll just list out the rares, assuming that my current predictions are correct:
*The Mending of the Dominaria isn't yet spoiled, but it's been hinted at and quoted in Llanowar Envoy the same way that other sagas are quoted in flavor text, and green is both the only color lacking a rare saga and really the only color with space for more rares. This can be considered as good as confirmed as far as I'm concerned. I also read somewhere that it's supposed to be a mythic, in which case that would be the green mythic and Multani would take its spot at rare. Still, for the sake of both a mythic legendary creature cycle and a rare saga cycle, I think that a rare Mending and a mythic Multani would make the most sense, and I'm going to assume that until proven otherwise.
**Reach of Branches, Blackblade Reforged, and Howling Golem were all spoiled in the release notes but haven't been officially confirmed, so their rarities are speculative. For these three cards specifically, I think that they could conceivably be printed at uncommon, but they're more likely to be rares. If any of these are uncommons, they would simply be replaced by another rare of the same color (or lack of color), probably a card that hasn't been spoiled at all yet, even in the release notes.
***Technically #209-210 could potentially be multicolored or artifact. For all my speculation above, I've assumed that 209 is multicolored and 210 is artifact, and that's probably the safest way to leave it in the number crunch. However, it is entirely possible that both 209 and 210 are multicolored, in which case the TBA artifact should be moved to the multicolored section, or that both 209 and 210 are artifacts, in which case the TBA multicolor should be moved to the artifact section. Technically it's even possible that in addition to #209 and #210, #211 or even #212 are multicolored as well if Blackblade and/or Howling Golem are, in fact, uncommons, but it's unlikely that there are this many unspoiled multicolored cards that all happen to be alphabetically after Tiana. I'd still leave 209 as multicolored and 210 as an artifact, but don't be surprised if both end up as artifact or multicolored.
This is probably way more information than necessary but hopefully it helps with the number crunch. At the very least it helps map out the rares almost for certain, and tells us how much we have left to be spoiled (not much). In all likelihood there are only four, maybe five or six rares we haven't seen either from the release notes or official spoilers, but at least this breakdown should tell us what those rares will probably be - the triple black-cost creature, the Mending as a green saga, two multicolored and/or artifact rares, plus maybe some green and/or artifacts if certain other cards are uncommon rather than rare. I don't know how much of this will be new information to add to the crunch but at least we know what to expect.
@SultaiAscendry I’ll agree most of this rares were what I was thinking and I also am tending Multani being the last Mythic Rare. I don’t want to really put in rarities on the cards until I know for sure (although I may fix Verdant Force at Rare since it’s a reprint). Thank you for your thoughts.
There is also a card called “final parting” (story spotlight). However this can fit the crunch in any color besides multicolor, Artifact, and Red. Therefore, it will be left out until I can pinpoint the color. However, I feel this will be a Black Card judging by its name (then again I would of assumed broken bond would be black by its name).
It is VERY safe to assume that the multicolored cards Garna and Hallar are both uncommon, since that gives us exactly one uncommon in each color pair as limited signposts, just like most sets. This in turn makes it reasonable to assume that Aryel is not C or U, and judging from the first post on this page, it's unlikely to be MR, which leaves R as the only option left.
You mean a different card than Reach of Branches, right? Its not in the release notes and is also a Tribal spell.
Assuming it's Sylvan Awakening, the Natural Affinity with haste reach and indestructible. Mass land animation has never been lower than rare iirc.
There's a slim chance it can be at uncommon due to the set having some weird rarity choices due to absorbing Dominaria's small set? Yeah Rare is probably the safer bet.
I feel like I have to mention, Counterspell hasn't been crunched out. I'm an optimist, sue me
Haha, hahahahaha, I shouldn't laugh this hard at 4 AM. That was good. Counterspell entering modern. Hahaha... yeah...
I´m not saying that I think it is going to see a Standard reprint. Absolutely not. But if, IF they were to print it in a regular set, this would probably be it. And I think it might actually be safe for Modern. It would, however, wreck Standard completely.
All that aside, Wizard's Retort is in the set, so... no, just no.
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It is VERY safe to assume that the multicolored cards Garna and Hallar are both uncommon, since that gives us exactly one uncommon in each color pair as limited signposts, just like most sets. This in turn makes it reasonable to assume that Aryel is not C or U, and judging from the first post on this page, it's unlikely to be MR, which leaves R as the only option left.
I’m actually going to mark Hallar and Garna as Uncommon. Thanks for pointing out that cycle I didn’t see it. As for Aryel I think it will probably be Rare since none of the other rarities make sense for it. However, to be on the safe side I’ll wait on putting it in the crunch.
So I would just like to state that I apologize if I’m not filling in rarities by “what may feel Rare.” I have been playing it safe with writing rarities into the crunch unless there’s a cycle, confirmation, or a reprint. Thus some of these rares that seem obvious have not been filled in. So if this seems like it’s getting filled in slower it’s because there are several cards I’m waiting for confirmation on. That said my guesses for some of the last rares are this:
Last 2 Black rares:
Kazarov and Lich’s Mastery. Kazarov I’m less confident about due to many legendary creatures at Uncommon and me being surprised at seemingly rare creatures being put in set as uncommon.
Last 2 Green rares: Unannounced card (maybe reach of branches as said earlier reprinted to not include Tribal label) and a Rare saga to end the Rare saga cycle (possibly Mending of Dominaria)
The multicolored Artyel I feel will be a Rare partially because we already have an uncommon B and W card and we know all the mythics already but as I said I’m hesistant a bit on labeling it Rare.
So only 17 Uncommons and 2 rares yet to be spoiled. It’s hard to believe that many Uncommons have been spoiled. Part of me thinks we can figure out some what may be an uncommon and common from the remaining cards that have not been assigned a rarity yet.
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I agree with 7 rares per color theory. I was thinking 8 before (especially because I was hoping that the legends with off-color abilities would be a cycle), but that only would have worked if there were no more colorless/multicolor/land rares spoiled, and seeing Cabal Stronghold proved that theory wrong. It is possible that some colors might get more rares than others. (This used to be something they avoided doing, but that's changed recently; they actually gave white and blue extra rares in Ixalan and blue an extra rare in Rivals, if I'm not mistaken.) However, I doubt that this is the case because having 1 colorless card, 37 cards each for two colors, and 38 each for three colors brings us to 189 exactly before multicolored cards. We definitely can't see more since Adeliz is at 190, and I doubt that we'll see less because it's highly unlikely that we get another multicolored rare whose name happens to be alphabetically before Adeliz. Considering that we have three colors with two mythics (RWB) and two with one (GU), having an equal number of rares across all colors would allow us to have three colors with 38 and two with 37. I also think we can rule out Oath of Karn unless something weird happens - the only way that we could get another colorless nonartifact is with one less white card, which would mean one less white rare (since they don't have different numbers of cards in each color at common/uncommon), and white already has five rares spoiled officially plus Benalish Marshal which is part of a rare cycle and Evra, Halcyon Witness which definitely isn't uncommon. Ultimately, I'm thinking the color/rarity breakdown will look something like this:
I'm guessing that the last mythic (14 of 15 have been spoiled officially) is Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar. It's reasonably mythic-feeling and would complete a cycle of mythic rare legendary creatures (each other color has one, while the three colors with an extra mythic each get a noncreature mythic in addition to their legendary creature). Since the mythics are pretty self-explanatory, I'll just list out the rares, assuming that my current predictions are correct:
*The Mending of the Dominaria isn't yet spoiled, but it's been hinted at and quoted in Llanowar Envoy the same way that other sagas are quoted in flavor text, and green is both the only color lacking a rare saga and really the only color with space for more rares. This can be considered as good as confirmed as far as I'm concerned. I also read somewhere that it's supposed to be a mythic, in which case that would be the green mythic and Multani would take its spot at rare. Still, for the sake of both a mythic legendary creature cycle and a rare saga cycle, I think that a rare Mending and a mythic Multani would make the most sense, and I'm going to assume that until proven otherwise.
**Reach of Branches, Blackblade Reforged, and Howling Golem were all spoiled in the release notes but haven't been officially confirmed, so their rarities are speculative. For these three cards specifically, I think that they could conceivably be printed at uncommon, but they're more likely to be rares. If any of these are uncommons, they would simply be replaced by another rare of the same color (or lack of color), probably a card that hasn't been spoiled at all yet, even in the release notes.
***Technically #209-210 could potentially be multicolored or artifact. For all my speculation above, I've assumed that 209 is multicolored and 210 is artifact, and that's probably the safest way to leave it in the number crunch. However, it is entirely possible that both 209 and 210 are multicolored, in which case the TBA artifact should be moved to the multicolored section, or that both 209 and 210 are artifacts, in which case the TBA multicolor should be moved to the artifact section. Technically it's even possible that in addition to #209 and #210, #211 or even #212 are multicolored as well if Blackblade and/or Howling Golem are, in fact, uncommons, but it's unlikely that there are this many unspoiled multicolored cards that all happen to be alphabetically after Tiana. I'd still leave 209 as multicolored and 210 as an artifact, but don't be surprised if both end up as artifact or multicolored.
This is probably way more information than necessary but hopefully it helps with the number crunch. At the very least it helps map out the rares almost for certain, and tells us how much we have left to be spoiled (not much). In all likelihood there are only four, maybe five or six rares we haven't seen either from the release notes or official spoilers, but at least this breakdown should tell us what those rares will probably be - the triple black-cost creature, the Mending as a green saga, two multicolored and/or artifact rares, plus maybe some green and/or artifacts if certain other cards are uncommon rather than rare. I don't know how much of this will be new information to add to the crunch but at least we know what to expect.
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Really surprising that Lich's Mastery is a rare. That's one of the most-mythic mythics I've ever seen.
Assuming it's Sylvan Awakening, the Natural Affinity with haste reach and indestructible. Mass land animation has never been lower than rare iirc.
Stay reasonable, be mindful of your expectations and don't feed the trolls.
Doomsdayin'
Haha, hahahahaha, I shouldn't laugh this hard at 4 AM. That was good. Counterspell entering modern. Hahaha... yeah...
All that aside, Wizard's Retort is in the set, so... no, just no.
Stay reasonable, be mindful of your expectations and don't feed the trolls.
Doomsdayin'
I’m actually going to mark Hallar and Garna as Uncommon. Thanks for pointing out that cycle I didn’t see it. As for Aryel I think it will probably be Rare since none of the other rarities make sense for it. However, to be on the safe side I’ll wait on putting it in the crunch.
I’m thinking myself we may actually get a Sengir Vampire reprint at this point. Added as a speculation into the crunch.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Fingers crossed!
Also, #002 is most likely white, as stated by the firs post in this page, and would fit perfectly as an Akroma reference.
Commander: WUBRG Superfriends, GW Rhys Tokens, WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon
Kitchen Table (now that's real Magic): WUBRG Domain, GU Biovisionary, UB Korlash Grandeur, UW Merfolk Mill
That’s actually what I was starting to think after seeing Aven Sentry at #3. With that confirmed there is a lot of room for anything starting with A.
Also I’ll add a speculation for Fametongue Kavu at 124.
- You have two times the number 14 in the list. It also secure Dub in number 15.
- Elfhame Druid is number 159, not 160 (which is still unknown)
BTW, Settle the Score is 103
Thanks for the work !
Fixed thanks!
There a spot at 102 it could fit. We'll see.
Nope 102 is Rite of Belzenlok. Looks like no Sengir Vampire reprint this set. Maybe in the core set
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Last 2 Black rares:
Kazarov and Lich’s Mastery. Kazarov I’m less confident about due to many legendary creatures at Uncommon and me being surprised at seemingly rare creatures being put in set as uncommon.
Last 2 Green rares: Unannounced card (maybe reach of branches as said earlier reprinted to not include Tribal label) and a Rare saga to end the Rare saga cycle (possibly Mending of Dominaria)
The multicolored Artyel I feel will be a Rare partially because we already have an uncommon B and W card and we know all the mythics already but as I said I’m hesistant a bit on labeling it Rare.
The remaking 2 rares will probably be Artifacts.
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