I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
Yeah, those decks look nice but that card list makes me think they (at least two) are going to be expensive to get. Completely defeating the purpose of those decks. Why would I want to spend $80 or more for just one precon from speculators snatching them up and pumping the prices?
I do have hope this won't happen. I dropped by my LGS today and they were selling a 2017 gift pack for $10. Since I cared only about the Poole lands, I figured $2 a pop for the lands was close enough to the sweet spot and picked it up. I consider the packs, two other cards and spin down just icing. Checking TCG after getting home shows I'm not too far off, the lands are going for about $1.60 or so.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
Yeah, those decks look nice but that card list makes me think they (at least two) are going to be expensive to get. Completely defeating the purpose of those decks. Why would I want to spend $80 or more for just one precon from speculators snatching them up and pumping the prices?
I do have hope this won't happen. I dropped by my LGS today and they were selling a 2017 gift pack for $10. Since I cared only about the Poole lands, I figured $2 a pop for the lands was close enough to the sweet spot and picked it up. I consider the packs, two other cards and spin down just icing. Checking TCG after getting home shows I'm not too far off, the lands are going for about $1.60 or so.
It's going to depend on the run size. Also these are going to depreciate insanely fast later on so I'm not really sure what is going to happen with them. Some places are going to crack them for singles, other places may try to sell above msrp, others may stock them to try and invest on the sealed boxes. Most of the high dollar cards are rotating soon so I don't think it's going to pay in the long run to raise prices on the decks over the MSRP.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
Yeah, those decks look nice but that card list makes me think they (at least two) are going to be expensive to get. Completely defeating the purpose of those decks. Why would I want to spend $80 or more for just one precon from speculators snatching them up and pumping the prices?
I do have hope this won't happen. I dropped by my LGS today and they were selling a 2017 gift pack for $10. Since I cared only about the Poole lands, I figured $2 a pop for the lands was close enough to the sweet spot and picked it up. I consider the packs, two other cards and spin down just icing. Checking TCG after getting home shows I'm not too far off, the lands are going for about $1.60 or so.
It's going to depend on the run size. Also these are going to depreciate insanely fast later on so I'm not really sure what is going to happen with them. Some places are going to crack them for singles, other places may try to sell above msrp, others may stock them to try and invest on the sealed boxes. Most of the high dollar cards are rotating soon so I don't think it's going to pay in the long run to raise prices on the decks over the MSRP.
Probably not the right place to ask... So you think a buy later strategy is the way to go here? I was thinking of pre-ordering a set from TCG from an early seller. Or I might get a set from my LGS since he's pretty good about pricing. He has a tough time maintaining stock though.
I'm going to confess that I'm a little surprised at their card list and their deck themes. I was expecting something a little more generic, like core set generic.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
Yeah, those decks look nice but that card list makes me think they (at least two) are going to be expensive to get. Completely defeating the purpose of those decks. Why would I want to spend $80 or more for just one precon from speculators snatching them up and pumping the prices?
I do have hope this won't happen. I dropped by my LGS today and they were selling a 2017 gift pack for $10. Since I cared only about the Poole lands, I figured $2 a pop for the lands was close enough to the sweet spot and picked it up. I consider the packs, two other cards and spin down just icing. Checking TCG after getting home shows I'm not too far off, the lands are going for about $1.60 or so.
It's going to depend on the run size. Also these are going to depreciate insanely fast later on so I'm not really sure what is going to happen with them. Some places are going to crack them for singles, other places may try to sell above msrp, others may stock them to try and invest on the sealed boxes. Most of the high dollar cards are rotating soon so I don't think it's going to pay in the long run to raise prices on the decks over the MSRP.
Probably not the right place to ask... So you think a buy later strategy is the way to go here? I was thinking of pre-ordering a set from TCG from an early seller. Or I might get a set from my LGS since he's pretty good about pricing. He has a tough time maintaining stock though.
I'm going to confess that I'm a little surprised at their card list and their deck themes. I was expecting something a little more generic, like core set generic.
From past experience this is how this is going to break down: Hazoret and the vehicle deck are going to sell out fast and everyone knows it, so the prices are going to be higher on those specific decks than the others on pre-order. Big box stores on release day will have the two decks on the shelves for msrp + sales tax so they will be roughly 30-35 dollars out of pocket. The other decks are going to be overlooked and probably will take forever to sell due to the included cards.
If you want the hazoret deck 100% get it pre-ordered at probably 30-40 dollars. Don't pick it up for pre-order at 40+ because it wont be worth it given the future depreciation of the contents. Vehicles is a bit sunnier since the land base in that deck is the best I've seen since the origins clash pack. The other two are a hard pass because the stores will have surplus easily of the snake deck and whatever the heck the abomination in the kefnet box is supposed to be. Holy smokes that deck doesn't look anything like approach.
If you are just buying the entire set, pre-order it for whatever discount rate you can find. 90-110 dollars is probably pretty good. Otherwise just skip that as well. Miniatures Mart sold out pretty fast and game nerdz is out as well. Also don't forget that the singles market is going to get flooded from surplus cards coming out of these packs. Hazoret is not going to be a 15 dollar mythic and chandra is going to probably drop to at least 20 dollars. Everything else is going to be pennies by the time this is over with and rotation hits it.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
This is all pretty much on the money, as it were. The sets are a great way to pick up singles for someone who's spent time away from the game and wasn't around in the early days. At this price point that's my primary objective.
Essentially, it boils down to this:
>great draft set at a reasonable price
>great reprint set at a slightly elevated price
Pick one, Wizards. You can't please everybody.
Drafting is fun, sure, but it's fleeting and at this price you need to ensure enduring value from the draft experience. Besides, why bother with the idea of drafting masters sets when you have Conspiracy? It's far more tailored to draft and I don't need to sell a kidney to enjoy it. The cards are usable and scalable to a lot of formats, it's well designed. I don't get it, it just seems like they're trying to sell the Masters sets on too many fronts. They need to know the market for the set and tailor it to that; in this case its entry modern/legacy/edh players trying to pick up format staples - make it more affordable or make it worth our while. It's not hard and it's not hard to understand.
I responded to Gavin in a lengthy email, but the crux of it is that the theme (whether draft archetypes or flavour) should not override the need for staples coming back (such as Scapeshift and fetchlands) and that I sincerely hope Modern Masters comes back with alternating themes in off-years or summer releases.
That's really the crux of the issue. They want to make draft sets and don't grasp who actually opens these the most. Also, the fact the runs are limited along with the high msrp puts the sets in a very awkward place.
The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
People who want staples aren't going to play lotto just the same as people who want to open and pick up something interesting want to. At the end of the day people want at least a coin flips chance of breaking even on a pack opening. If that can't happen there's basically no point to even drafting. Unstable sells constantly from impulse purchases because the lands in them plus the full foil token makes the loss of maybe a dollar per three packs worth it. Iconic Masters the value is so horrible that it's like 33 dollars for 3 packs and people have come out 20-28 dollars poorer.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
This is the crux of it, essentially. We need at least a fighting chance at achieving financial parity as a bare minimum. Relying on a lucky chase rare pull to make some of your money back is not enough. The only way that works anywhere near reliably is buying a box, and even then there's no guarantee, and a huge initial outlay.
At the end of the day people want at least a coin flips chance of breaking even on a pack opening.
When's the last time they had a set where, at time of its main circulation, players had anywhere near a coin flip chance of breaking even?
What are the odds of breaking even on a RIX booster? On the rare slot alone, we're looking at something like 26 times out of 121. Occasionally you'll pull a scale-tipping uncommon with a slightly-below-pack-worth rare bring the pack above parity, and maybe once or twice per case you might crack a foil that makes a pack worth above cost when the rares and uncommons alone wouldn't have. But we're looking at... 30-35 out of 121? Closer to a D4's chance of break-even than a coin flip's. And that's pretty typical of the economy. If a set's packs had a coins flip chance of breaking even, AND had big-dollar chase rares and mythics... the average pack value would be more than the cost of a pack. And if that was the case, stores wouldn't sell packs at MSRP. They could sell them for more or they'd hoard them and not even put them up for retail when they'd always be more valuable to hold or split. It'd be Modern Masters 1 all over again.
I feel like most standard releases are this way. You don't really expect to get value from booster pulls unless you get lucky and pull a foil walker or chase standard staple.
But these sets are, or should be, different. They're being sold as premium packs with lots of value - if they don't live up to that I'm buying singles.
At the end of the day people want at least a coin flips chance of breaking even on a pack opening.
When's the last time they had a set where, at time of its main circulation, players had anywhere near a coin flip chance of breaking even?
What are the odds of breaking even on a RIX booster? On the rare slot alone, we're looking at something like 26 times out of 121. Occasionally you'll pull a scale-tipping uncommon with a slightly-below-pack-worth rare bring the pack above parity, and maybe once or twice per case you might crack a foil that makes a pack worth above cost when the rares and uncommons alone wouldn't have. But we're looking at... 30-35 out of 121? Closer to a D4's chance of break-even than a coin flip's. And that's pretty typical of the economy. If a set's packs had a coins flip chance of breaking even, AND had big-dollar chase rares and mythics... the average pack value would be more than the cost of a pack. And if that was the case, stores wouldn't sell packs at MSRP. They could sell them for more or they'd hoard them and not even put them up for retail when they'd always be more valuable to hold or split. It'd be Modern Masters 1 all over again.
Well yeah, Rivals and original Ixalan are both pretty bad sets. They got a few chase mythics in them and nothing else gets major play because everyone is still playing standard with the prior sets and a few minor includes. I actually do remember sets that had more than a coin flips chance of breaking even on, but that was before BFZ and the lotto cards. The set was called Return to Ravnica. Also there was New Phyrexia, Innistrad was kind of okay, and I'm pretty sure it was either Kahns or Dragons that was decent. You still lost money on the packs, but back during those sets it wasn't like now.
Also, this is getting depressing on the previews. Chalice of the Void should have been rare along with Imperial Recruiter, and I got no idea why they are putting cards that could literally be reprinted anywhere at the mythic level.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
If it matters, I try to take their surveys, and I buy 95% singles. I have done a few drafts with friends (Aether Revolt, Rivals of Ixalan, and I've been trying to do an Unstable one, but they keep flaking on me), but I have zero reason to draft a set that's 10 bucks a pack when I can get three times the cards for the same price with a regular set and have just as much fun; I completely agree about them trying to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to designing them for drafting and designing them to have a good selection of needed reprints. Something needs to change.
Also, this is getting depressing on the previews. Chalice of the Void should have been rare along with Imperial Recruiter, and I got no idea why they are putting cards that could literally be reprinted anywhere at the mythic level.
Yeah, I'm not thrilled with what's been shown so far either. I wouldn't even put any of them in my top 50 wanted reprints. We have four more days of spoilers, but hopefully that's enough to keep this from turning into the Yoshi's New Island of Masters sets (i.e., "well, the last one was pretty lame, but they wouldn't screw up twice in a row, would they?...aaand they screwed up twice in a row.").
I actually do remember sets that had more than a coin flips chance of breaking even on, but that was before BFZ and the lotto cards. The set was called Return to Ravnica.
RTR was the five shocklands and a small handful of valuable Golgari and Azorius rares and mythics (Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, Supreme Verdict, Sphinx's Revelation, Vraska the Unseen)... some things have since spiked (Chromatic Lantern, Rest in Peace, and Cyclonic Rift were under pack value at the time, and have substantially appreciated since) while most of the other spells have subsided, either by reprint or by lack of modern demand. The average value on a per box basis was excellent because the shocklands were always money, but in terms of "coin flip chance of breaking even" on a per-pack basis? - still not even close. The value proposition was tilted heavily towards the shocklands - if you got em you made back several times the value of a pack, but over 75% of packs didn't value out their pricetag. We saw this again with Khans. And we see it with any set that has a cycle of five modern-playable lands at rare.
I actually do remember sets that had more than a coin flips chance of breaking even on, but that was before BFZ and the lotto cards. The set was called Return to Ravnica.
RTR was the five shocklands and a small handful of valuable Golgari and Azorius rares and mythics (Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, Supreme Verdict, Sphinx's Revelation, Vraska the Unseen)... some things have since spiked (Chromatic Lantern, Rest in Peace, and Cyclonic Rift were under pack value at the time, and have substantially appreciated since) while most of the other spells have subsided, either by reprint or by lack of modern demand. The average value on a per box basis was excellent because the shocklands were always money, but in terms of "coin flip chance of breaking even" on a per-pack basis? - still not even close. The value proposition was tilted heavily towards the shocklands - if you got em you made back several times the value of a pack, but over 75% of packs didn't value out their pricetag. We saw this again with Khans. And we see it with any set that has a cycle of five modern-playable lands at rare.
In my mind, a coin flip chance of breaking even on a pack is at least two thirds to three quarters of the packs price. RTR more than exceeded that statement a good portion of the time. It was also a really good set to just play around with.
Look, I know people here like to go seriously literal on every word typed out, but this is not that kind of thing that should be taken in the strictest literal sense. It's about "do the cards in this pack feel like it was worth the money you paid for it", and the answer has been no for so long that a lot of people just went to strait up buying singles.
Also, the more I keep looking at that masters article, the more I'm just getting angry at this Gavin guy. He's so absolutely clueless. Right now the problem with the spoilers they showed on the first day for the new set is feeling a whole lot like Iconic Masters and the fact they had to unban Jace... We're just going to have to see what else is in the set.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I know i already posted in this thread, but after thinking about it and reading the initial post again, I think this is a great idea. They've reprinted a lot of money in modern sets. They've reprinted LotV, Snap, enemy fetches, Goyf (3 times) and probably a lot more I've missed. So branching out to other formats will allow them to cover more without having to make masters specific to those formats, which will also reduce the flood of masters sets and help keep peopel, more excited for them
Also, the more I keep looking at that masters article, the more I'm just getting angry at this Gavin guy. He's so absolutely clueless. Right now the problem with the spoilers they showed on the first day for the new set is feeling a whole lot like Iconic Masters and the fact they had to unban Jace... We're just going to have to see what else is in the set.
Draft... draft... draft... draft... draft....
Gavin wrote the word, "draft," fourteen times in that article. He's not clueless. He knows exactly what he's talking about. If this set bites the dust then WotC will leave him flapping in the wind. But if this set is well received by us, then he'll be seen as a savior internally.
What he's trying to do is gear up excitement for draft. Shift focus away from the potential disappointment for any other format depending on this set.
Also, the more I keep looking at that masters article, the more I'm just getting angry at this Gavin guy. He's so absolutely clueless. Right now the problem with the spoilers they showed on the first day for the new set is feeling a whole lot like Iconic Masters and the fact they had to unban Jace... We're just going to have to see what else is in the set.
Draft... draft... draft... draft... draft....
Gavin wrote the word, "draft," fourteen times in that article. He's not clueless. He knows exactly what he's talking about. If this set bites the dust then WotC will leave him flapping in the wind. But if this set is well received by us, then he'll be seen as a savior internally.
What he's trying to do is gear up excitement for draft. Shift focus away from the potential disappointment for any other format depending on this set.
I mean....that's a huge risk to take. It's a big investment on expensive product that definitely won't sell out if you're hanging your hopes on drafters. I just don't get it. From a marketing perspective not only are they trying to please everyone, they're trying to make one of their own products redundant (Conspiracy). Why??? Who makes these decisions and why are they still employed? Its baffling.
That being said, there are some cool reprints coming out. Stoked to see Flash again. The requisite Protean Hulk is of course nice too, although I can't help but feel it's a bit of a marketing ploy off the back of the last round of Commander unbans. Nice to see Darien, King of Kjeldor too. Still holding out hope for Land Tax, just not holding my breath.
Also, the more I keep looking at that masters article, the more I'm just getting angry at this Gavin guy. He's so absolutely clueless. Right now the problem with the spoilers they showed on the first day for the new set is feeling a whole lot like Iconic Masters and the fact they had to unban Jace... We're just going to have to see what else is in the set.
Draft... draft... draft... draft... draft....
Gavin wrote the word, "draft," fourteen times in that article. He's not clueless. He knows exactly what he's talking about. If this set bites the dust then WotC will leave him flapping in the wind. But if this set is well received by us, then he'll be seen as a savior internally.
What he's trying to do is gear up excitement for draft. Shift focus away from the potential disappointment for any other format depending on this set.
I mean....that's a huge risk to take. It's a big investment on expensive product that definitely won't sell out if you're hanging your hopes on drafters. I just don't get it. From a marketing perspective not only are they trying to please everyone, they're trying to make one of their own products redundant (Conspiracy). Why??? Who makes these decisions and why are they still employed? Its baffling.
That being said, there are some cool reprints coming out. Stoked to see Flash again. The requisite Protean Hulk is of course nice too, although I can't help but feel it's a bit of a marketing ploy off the back of the last round of Commander unbans. Nice to see Darien, King of Kjeldor too. Still holding out hope for Land Tax, just not holding my breath.
I don't profess to understand their thought process. But it struck me how Gavin talked about the different groups who play Magic. Here's the quote:
You see, we had learned by this point that there were really three primary audiences for these sets.
The first is people who really want the individual cards in the set. They are on the hunt for cards that might not have been printed since they started playing the game. Magic has exploded in popularity over the past few years, and a large portion of our player base simply wasn't around the first time we printed many of these cards.
The second is people who really enjoy the Draft experience of the set. They really like the unique and highly complex power level of these sets. To them, the cards in the sets are means to an end: they might use the cards they draft to help them draft again, but they aren't explicitly interested in collecting them.
And finally, the third category is simply the overlap of the first two. These players both want the cards and enjoy drafting the sets.
What..?
He's essentially saying, if you don't play draft you belong in the other group. That literally means everyone like me who play Legacy and missed the last 17 years of Magic because I dropped out to the guy who picked up his first Standard pack to the Commander gals to the investors to the speculators. Oh... and there's a subset of people that both Draft and... whatever the rest of us do.
Then Gavin goes on to write...
As it turns out, there are a lot of players in the second and third camps. That isn't to say that the first group is miniscule—far from it—but as we had learned by this point, the Draft environments were crucial to the set. People listed previous Masters sets as some of their favorite Draft formats of all time. At the same time, it was important the sets have exciting cards for players who had started playing in just the past few years.
"Minuscule" is the operative word here. What, exactly does minuscule actually mean in this context? If we use percentages, is minuscule anything less than... 30%? 25%? Of the player base? So is the spread something like 60%/55%? Or is it more like 75%/35%? Or does miniscule actually mean the opposite and the percentages are inverted? 80% non-draft and 40% draft? And WotC wants to lock in the draft players?
I'm beginning to wonder if WotC operates like The Cabal. It's like the R&D teams don't want to spend time assembling and constructed decks when they can get more games in with draft. The resulting sets are very draft centric, and IMHO detrimental to nearly every constructed format, and Gavin seems like he's pleading with the community to give draft a chance.
If draft is so darn wonderful, why doesn't WotC let the community speak for itself?
Some might argue that we do, with our pocket books buying these sets. I disagree. I think we, as a community, are so hungry for both new and reprinted cards to feed into constructed that we'll crack packs or pay someone else to crack them for us.
If draft is so darn wonderful, why doesn't WotC let the community speak for itself?
Dead on. I really enjoy draft, personally. But it's a fleeting experience, and I'm not letting my wallet get gouged for ONE night of enjoyment. I play edh solely, so anything I draft I expect to be picking up some pieces to slot into my decks. If the chances of that are slim, I ain't drafting. Or, I'll save my money for a dedicated draft set in Conspiracy for half the price, pick up some format staples there, and buy singles from the Masters set as needed. As a point of reference I spent about ten bucks total on Iconic.
Some might argue that we do, with our pocket books buying these sets. I disagree. I think we, as a community, are so hungry for both new and reprinted cards to feed into constructed that we'll crack packs or pay someone else to crack them for us.
This sort of feeds into the reserved list discussion a little. Without opening a can of worms entirely, WotC are pricing people out of staples with these reprint sets and simply making the reserved list unavailable. It's not a sustainable business model, and so these discussions really aren't surprising at all. I don't know what the way forward is for WotC to alleviate the angst of the community, but my gut feeling is that the reserved list can't be around forever. My gut feeling is also that they either do not have their finger on the pulse of the community, or they are wilfully ignoring what people want.
So Gavin... we're going to make a draft set, are we? So, how does Doomsday play in a draft? The spoilers so far feel rather scatter brained and I'd prefer if they picked cards that had the greatest breadth of legality possible. They're asking people to pay 10 dollars a pack and depending on what they play most often in terms of format could end up with duds and cards that simply wont hold any value past the drafting / sealed experience.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
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The people who want the staples are not really going to play the lottery with 10 dollar packs. They are going to go online and just buy the singles they want from retailers.
People who only buy singles are not usually going to be the type of people who fill out surveys, which is where WotC gets a lot of their feedback data from. So the data will always skew more heavily towards those who draft with the set. Add to this, the designers' own natural preference for, and bias towards, draft and it is easy to see why they obsess over it.
"Obsess," is a bit of an understatement. I can't tell if all that gushing in the Gavin article over Draft is a desperate attempt to justify the impending disappointment of MM25 he knows is coming or that he truly, sincerely, honestly loves Draft that much which is an extension about their almost complete disregard for constructed.
It's the latter. If you follow a couple of sources, the teams behind the game actively draft and play sealed, but don't do a lot of constructed play themselves. That's likely part of the reason we got into the mess with the sets almost being purely designed around draft. As far as the company was concerned people loved to draft and if a set had super cool cards to gamble on people would be willing to slam down the ten dollar bills for packs to do it with.
As for the challenger decks, they are a much needed relief valve for standard players who need to pick up the value creatures. The only issue is the price of Rekindling Phoenix is likely going to go up along with Vraska's Contempt. Also, their constrictor deck badly needed the Botanical Sanctum, as right now the two decks that are just going to sell out at insane speeds are the red deck and the vehicles deck.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Yeah, those decks look nice but that card list makes me think they (at least two) are going to be expensive to get. Completely defeating the purpose of those decks. Why would I want to spend $80 or more for just one precon from speculators snatching them up and pumping the prices?
I do have hope this won't happen. I dropped by my LGS today and they were selling a 2017 gift pack for $10. Since I cared only about the Poole lands, I figured $2 a pop for the lands was close enough to the sweet spot and picked it up. I consider the packs, two other cards and spin down just icing. Checking TCG after getting home shows I'm not too far off, the lands are going for about $1.60 or so.
It's going to depend on the run size. Also these are going to depreciate insanely fast later on so I'm not really sure what is going to happen with them. Some places are going to crack them for singles, other places may try to sell above msrp, others may stock them to try and invest on the sealed boxes. Most of the high dollar cards are rotating soon so I don't think it's going to pay in the long run to raise prices on the decks over the MSRP.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Probably not the right place to ask... So you think a buy later strategy is the way to go here? I was thinking of pre-ordering a set from TCG from an early seller. Or I might get a set from my LGS since he's pretty good about pricing. He has a tough time maintaining stock though.
I'm going to confess that I'm a little surprised at their card list and their deck themes. I was expecting something a little more generic, like core set generic.
From past experience this is how this is going to break down: Hazoret and the vehicle deck are going to sell out fast and everyone knows it, so the prices are going to be higher on those specific decks than the others on pre-order. Big box stores on release day will have the two decks on the shelves for msrp + sales tax so they will be roughly 30-35 dollars out of pocket. The other decks are going to be overlooked and probably will take forever to sell due to the included cards.
If you want the hazoret deck 100% get it pre-ordered at probably 30-40 dollars. Don't pick it up for pre-order at 40+ because it wont be worth it given the future depreciation of the contents. Vehicles is a bit sunnier since the land base in that deck is the best I've seen since the origins clash pack. The other two are a hard pass because the stores will have surplus easily of the snake deck and whatever the heck the abomination in the kefnet box is supposed to be. Holy smokes that deck doesn't look anything like approach.
If you are just buying the entire set, pre-order it for whatever discount rate you can find. 90-110 dollars is probably pretty good. Otherwise just skip that as well. Miniatures Mart sold out pretty fast and game nerdz is out as well. Also don't forget that the singles market is going to get flooded from surplus cards coming out of these packs. Hazoret is not going to be a 15 dollar mythic and chandra is going to probably drop to at least 20 dollars. Everything else is going to be pennies by the time this is over with and rotation hits it.
The absolutely recommended pick up for modern play is the vehicles deck. It sounds weird, but the cards in that deck are highly undervalued by the format as Scrapheap Scrounger, Inspiring Vantage, and Concealed Courtyard alone are already highly playable. The 4x Spire of Industry and Unclaimed Territory are also really good includes. I mean, Spire of Industry is the best glimmervoid alternative there is.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
This is all pretty much on the money, as it were. The sets are a great way to pick up singles for someone who's spent time away from the game and wasn't around in the early days. At this price point that's my primary objective.
Essentially, it boils down to this:
>great draft set at a reasonable price
>great reprint set at a slightly elevated price
Pick one, Wizards. You can't please everybody.
Drafting is fun, sure, but it's fleeting and at this price you need to ensure enduring value from the draft experience. Besides, why bother with the idea of drafting masters sets when you have Conspiracy? It's far more tailored to draft and I don't need to sell a kidney to enjoy it. The cards are usable and scalable to a lot of formats, it's well designed. I don't get it, it just seems like they're trying to sell the Masters sets on too many fronts. They need to know the market for the set and tailor it to that; in this case its entry modern/legacy/edh players trying to pick up format staples - make it more affordable or make it worth our while. It's not hard and it's not hard to understand.
People who want staples aren't going to play lotto just the same as people who want to open and pick up something interesting want to. At the end of the day people want at least a coin flips chance of breaking even on a pack opening. If that can't happen there's basically no point to even drafting. Unstable sells constantly from impulse purchases because the lands in them plus the full foil token makes the loss of maybe a dollar per three packs worth it. Iconic Masters the value is so horrible that it's like 33 dollars for 3 packs and people have come out 20-28 dollars poorer.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
When's the last time they had a set where, at time of its main circulation, players had anywhere near a coin flip chance of breaking even?
What are the odds of breaking even on a RIX booster? On the rare slot alone, we're looking at something like 26 times out of 121. Occasionally you'll pull a scale-tipping uncommon with a slightly-below-pack-worth rare bring the pack above parity, and maybe once or twice per case you might crack a foil that makes a pack worth above cost when the rares and uncommons alone wouldn't have. But we're looking at... 30-35 out of 121? Closer to a D4's chance of break-even than a coin flip's. And that's pretty typical of the economy. If a set's packs had a coins flip chance of breaking even, AND had big-dollar chase rares and mythics... the average pack value would be more than the cost of a pack. And if that was the case, stores wouldn't sell packs at MSRP. They could sell them for more or they'd hoard them and not even put them up for retail when they'd always be more valuable to hold or split. It'd be Modern Masters 1 all over again.
But these sets are, or should be, different. They're being sold as premium packs with lots of value - if they don't live up to that I'm buying singles.
Well yeah, Rivals and original Ixalan are both pretty bad sets. They got a few chase mythics in them and nothing else gets major play because everyone is still playing standard with the prior sets and a few minor includes. I actually do remember sets that had more than a coin flips chance of breaking even on, but that was before BFZ and the lotto cards. The set was called Return to Ravnica. Also there was New Phyrexia, Innistrad was kind of okay, and I'm pretty sure it was either Kahns or Dragons that was decent. You still lost money on the packs, but back during those sets it wasn't like now.
Also, this is getting depressing on the previews. Chalice of the Void should have been rare along with Imperial Recruiter, and I got no idea why they are putting cards that could literally be reprinted anywhere at the mythic level.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I haven't seen anything worth throwing down money for yet. I'm still crossing my fingers for Greater Good, Land Tax, Exploration, Master Transmuter, Gilded Lotus. I live in hope.
EDIT: Just spoiled - Living Wish - no good for me as an EDH player. Go wizards, go!
RTR was the five shocklands and a small handful of valuable Golgari and Azorius rares and mythics (Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, Supreme Verdict, Sphinx's Revelation, Vraska the Unseen)... some things have since spiked (Chromatic Lantern, Rest in Peace, and Cyclonic Rift were under pack value at the time, and have substantially appreciated since) while most of the other spells have subsided, either by reprint or by lack of modern demand. The average value on a per box basis was excellent because the shocklands were always money, but in terms of "coin flip chance of breaking even" on a per-pack basis? - still not even close. The value proposition was tilted heavily towards the shocklands - if you got em you made back several times the value of a pack, but over 75% of packs didn't value out their pricetag. We saw this again with Khans. And we see it with any set that has a cycle of five modern-playable lands at rare.
In my mind, a coin flip chance of breaking even on a pack is at least two thirds to three quarters of the packs price. RTR more than exceeded that statement a good portion of the time. It was also a really good set to just play around with.
Look, I know people here like to go seriously literal on every word typed out, but this is not that kind of thing that should be taken in the strictest literal sense. It's about "do the cards in this pack feel like it was worth the money you paid for it", and the answer has been no for so long that a lot of people just went to strait up buying singles.
Also, the more I keep looking at that masters article, the more I'm just getting angry at this Gavin guy. He's so absolutely clueless. Right now the problem with the spoilers they showed on the first day for the new set is feeling a whole lot like Iconic Masters and the fact they had to unban Jace... We're just going to have to see what else is in the set.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Draft... draft... draft... draft... draft....
Gavin wrote the word, "draft," fourteen times in that article. He's not clueless. He knows exactly what he's talking about. If this set bites the dust then WotC will leave him flapping in the wind. But if this set is well received by us, then he'll be seen as a savior internally.
What he's trying to do is gear up excitement for draft. Shift focus away from the potential disappointment for any other format depending on this set.
I mean....that's a huge risk to take. It's a big investment on expensive product that definitely won't sell out if you're hanging your hopes on drafters. I just don't get it. From a marketing perspective not only are they trying to please everyone, they're trying to make one of their own products redundant (Conspiracy). Why??? Who makes these decisions and why are they still employed? Its baffling.
That being said, there are some cool reprints coming out. Stoked to see Flash again. The requisite Protean Hulk is of course nice too, although I can't help but feel it's a bit of a marketing ploy off the back of the last round of Commander unbans. Nice to see Darien, King of Kjeldor too. Still holding out hope for Land Tax, just not holding my breath.
I don't profess to understand their thought process. But it struck me how Gavin talked about the different groups who play Magic. Here's the quote:
What..?
He's essentially saying, if you don't play draft you belong in the other group. That literally means everyone like me who play Legacy and missed the last 17 years of Magic because I dropped out to the guy who picked up his first Standard pack to the Commander gals to the investors to the speculators. Oh... and there's a subset of people that both Draft and... whatever the rest of us do.
Then Gavin goes on to write...
"Minuscule" is the operative word here. What, exactly does minuscule actually mean in this context? If we use percentages, is minuscule anything less than... 30%? 25%? Of the player base? So is the spread something like 60%/55%? Or is it more like 75%/35%? Or does miniscule actually mean the opposite and the percentages are inverted? 80% non-draft and 40% draft? And WotC wants to lock in the draft players?
I'm beginning to wonder if WotC operates like The Cabal. It's like the R&D teams don't want to spend time assembling and constructed decks when they can get more games in with draft. The resulting sets are very draft centric, and IMHO detrimental to nearly every constructed format, and Gavin seems like he's pleading with the community to give draft a chance.
If draft is so darn wonderful, why doesn't WotC let the community speak for itself?
Some might argue that we do, with our pocket books buying these sets. I disagree. I think we, as a community, are so hungry for both new and reprinted cards to feed into constructed that we'll crack packs or pay someone else to crack them for us.
Dead on. I really enjoy draft, personally. But it's a fleeting experience, and I'm not letting my wallet get gouged for ONE night of enjoyment. I play edh solely, so anything I draft I expect to be picking up some pieces to slot into my decks. If the chances of that are slim, I ain't drafting. Or, I'll save my money for a dedicated draft set in Conspiracy for half the price, pick up some format staples there, and buy singles from the Masters set as needed. As a point of reference I spent about ten bucks total on Iconic.
This sort of feeds into the reserved list discussion a little. Without opening a can of worms entirely, WotC are pricing people out of staples with these reprint sets and simply making the reserved list unavailable. It's not a sustainable business model, and so these discussions really aren't surprising at all. I don't know what the way forward is for WotC to alleviate the angst of the community, but my gut feeling is that the reserved list can't be around forever. My gut feeling is also that they either do not have their finger on the pulse of the community, or they are wilfully ignoring what people want.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!